CNI News

10 January 2024

After the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has seized control of Mansi Town in Kachin State, the Mansi route might be the first step to march into the mainland, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News. 

The KIA/PDF joint forces attacked and captured three remaining battalions of the Myanmar Tatmadaw im Mansi, Kachin State on 8th January 2025.

There are three routes to penetrate into the mainland and the route from Mansi may be the first route, Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News.

While seeing the KIA-PDF

" Largely, the Shan-Man operation disappeared. And then, three routes were expected to penetrate the mainland. One is from Rakhine State, second from Kachin State and third from northern Shan State. There might be an idea that the Shan-Man operation might penetrate into the mainland together with these offensives and then revolutionary forces may move to Naypyidaw. Let's think of the second wave of Operation-1027. If there is a route from Mansi, it may be the first. How will the SAC respond to the offensive coming from Mansi? How will the SAC respond to these three offensives? As a result, how will the Myanmar government take seriously the interests of China and India? It is the challenge that has to be taken care of in Myanmar politics in early 2025." he said.

The KIA has captured the Kachin Special Region-1 where rare earth can be produced and has been launching offensives to Bhamo which is included in China's targeted project since 4th December 2024.

While battles were severely breaking out in Bhamo and Mansi Townships, the KIA delegate led by chairman of the KIA, General N'Ban La went to China and discussed the stability of border areas and stoppage of battles with Chinese authorities. And then, the KIA sped up its offensives starting from 6th January, 2025 and the KIA was able to capture Mansi Town on 8th January.

While seeing General N'Ban La

The Chinese pressure on the KIA was different from that on the MNDAA and the KIA had advantages, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a Myanmar-China affairs commentator, told CNI News.

" Although China summoned the KIA to discuss, the KIA went on fighting about what they would have to do. Although China put pressure on the KIA, in fact China advised. The KIA is better than MNDAA because all the regions the KIA captured not long ago are adjacent to the Chinese border. So, the Myanmar Tatmadaw can't carry out airstrikes. But Bhamo was badly damaged by airstrikes. Another advantage is that Kachin State shares borders with China and there are Jinghpaw (Kachin)'s self-administered districts in China." she said.

At present, the KIA/PDF joint forces have captured Mabein, Myohla, Lweje, Dodphone Yang, Myothit, Sinbo, Ingyanyan, Sumprabon, Sadon, Chipwi, Sawlaw, Panwa, Kan Pite Tee and Mansi in Kachin State and northern Shan State.

CNI News

10 January 2025

Military and political analysts are considering and discussing why the Arakan Army (AA) does not attack Kyaukphyu, Sittwe and Manaung in Rakhine State. 

There are 17 townships in Rakhine State and the AA has already captured 14 townships. However, the AA does not continue to attack the three remaining townships - Kyaukphyu, Sittwe and Manaung. Questions are also being raised as the AA's offensive moves towards the mainland.

According the statement released by the AA on 29th December 2024, foreign investments and projects would be protected by the AA. 

So, without attacking the three remaining towns, its offensives were moving towards the mainland, U Khun Sai taking part in the peace process told CNI News.

While seeing the AA

" The Kaladan River Project of India is located in Sittwe while the Chinese Project, in Kyaukphyu. Manaung also has a naval base. So, the AA doesn't have to attack these places urgently. The AA announced on 29th December that it will protect foreign investments. So, without attacking these towns, it's likely that the AA's offensive is moving towards the mainland." he said.

The AA was always ready to solve the domestic problems through the political means, said in the statement released by the AA. 

The AA's offer to discuss politically was not retreat from its objectives and it was a well-crafted publication that was in keeping with the times, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a Myanmar-China affairs analuyst, told CNI News.

While seeing a junction in Rakhine State

" Revolutionary forces don't have to fight continuously. They have to fight and rest because after a large battle, material or manpower has decreased. They need to take time to replenish these things. It takes a while to rebuild your spirit. You have to find a method for that. The AA might be put pressure as well to meet and discuss. Or the AA itself might need to do so." she said.

There are Chinese interests in Kyaukphyu and because Manaung is on an island, the AA could take time to attack it. However, the AA could attack Sittwe, said military and political analysts.

CNI News

10 January 2025

The Ministry of Energy is selling RON-68 gasoline at 2,200 kyats per liter in Naypyidaw, which is only good for the short term, pointed out businessmen and financial analysts. RON-68 is the gasoline produced by refining petroleum produced by domestic factories.

Most vehicles in Myanmar use only RON-92 or RON-92 and if RON-68 was used, engine reportedly could be affected in the long run. However, it would support for normal vehicles and be good in the short term, U Htay Aung Kyi, a banking expert, told CNI News.

" It supports more or less. It's fine for engines that are compatible with RON-68. I don't understand it very well because I'm not an engineer. I'm not sure if RON-68 can replace RON-92. Even if it can be used, might it affect the engine in the long run. But according to the current situation, it is supportive for normal vehicles in the short term." he said.

It is designated that RON-100 is the best gasoline and RON-88, the lowest. So, as RON-68 is lower than RON-88, people should make sure to know which kind of RON must be used for their engine.

While filling up the car with fuel oil

The Ministry of Energy that sells RON-68 should let the people know which kind of vehicle could use RON-68 at the fuel oil stations, U Aung Pyae Sone, a businessman, told CNI News.

" Motorcycles coming from China and Thailand are being currently used within the country. It would be convenient to use RON-88 or RON-90 for the China made motorcycles. But it is very difficult to regard RON-68 as a fuel oil. If it was used in generators, it would be necessary to weigh. If a lower qualified fuel is used one time or two, it won't be problematic. But if it is used three times and above, it can be problematic." he said.

RON-68 will be sold at the two shops in Mandalay, at a shop in Naypyidaw, at Hin Ngoke Pin fuel station in Taungoo and at Loilyn fuel station, reported the ministry.

It is also reported that efforts are underway to expand and open in other regions and states.

CNI News

10 January 2025

The National Unity Government (NUG) should be all reorganized and the change needed was to win the war and the change needed was to win the war, reforms were also needed said political analysts. 

Changes necessary to make the revolution succeed would be bravely conducted, said the Union PM of the NUG, Mahn Win Khine Than said in his New Year Speech on 1st January 2025.

" The best is to make a change in the whole NUG. The war has not been won. It doesn't have lots of money. The cabinet is too big. The cabinet members have taken their salaries to the full. When they go to a third country, the NUG supports them for their expenditure including those for their family members. That's enough. The necessary change is fighting to win the war." said U Kyi Myint, a political commentator.

The NUG would carry out more effective reforms and was ready to repair administrative and military weaknesses that emerged from weak leadership, said the PM of the NUG.

There were lessons to be learned and reforms to be made in 2024. Because of some administrative and military officials, there were acts that deviated from the revolutionary norms, and incidents that prioritized emotions and undermined understanding and unity, he admitted.

While Union PM of the NUG Mahn Win Khine Than was meeting with PDF comrades

The NUG had a lot of things to reform, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.

" The NUG needs to reform a lot. First of all, the NUG must expand its military alliance to the next level. Next, the NUG must better political corporations. The NUG emphasizes military operations while it must build an interim constitution firmly. In this way, the integration of ethnic armed organizations and Bamar armed forces will become more compact and solid. And the NUG needs to change into a revolutionary government, that is to say, the NUG doesn't need until 17 ministries." he said.

Although the NUG has over 300 battalions and over 200 defense force units, because they are not able to fight effectively, there is no organization type that meets the demands of practical struggle, pointed out military and political analysts.

EAOs and the PDFs have controlled 144 townships, released by the NUG's Ministry of Defense on 4th January 2025.

Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing urged all Myanmar citizens to carry out hand in hand with the spirit ' We are all Myanmar' in his written speech sent to the 77th Independence Day ceremony.

CNI News

9 January 2025

How much the SAC demand to solve the problem through political means and as long as the SAC asks armed groups to abandon weapons, political discussions would not be successful, pointed out military and political analysts. 

The SAC would not indulge and solve the armed terrorist claims and would meet and discuss with armed groups only when they abandon their armed policy, which Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing has said.

The chairman of the SAC asked EAOs to abandon weapons and build political parties to run the election;  as long as the chairman asked EAOs to abandon weapons, political discussions would not be successful, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.

While seeing Lt-Gen Ko Ko Oo from the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the MNDAA leaders

" What the SAC chairman wanted to say is that he would discuss politics, but the Tatmadaw won't accept armed pressure. What he means is that EAOs or revolutionary forces should run the election after abandoning weapons. So, political discussions won't be successful." he said.

The SAC chairman has urged armed groups to solve armed conflicts and disagreements in accordance with the law. However, because the Myanmar Tatmadaw did not solve the political problem through political means, urging EAOs to solve politically was not practical, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a Myanmar-China affairs commentator, told CNI News.

While seeing a comrade of the AA

" It's very sure that the SAC has not decided to meet and discuss. Next, they have no plan to withdraw. They will go on. So, they are trying to win legitimacy. For the time being, the SAC seems to deem that its exit is to hold the election. We have to ask the SAC if it solved the political problem through the political means. If the election was held, if they found something they didn't like, they would stage a coup d'état again." she said.

Three northern allies (TNLA,AA,MNDAA) and China met and discussed the peace process in December 2024 and the SAC delegates and northern allies met and discussed. 

However, they have not reached any firm agreements up to now and armed conflicts are still breaking out.

CNI News

9 January 2025

The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) probably was conducting military activities to prevent the Arakan Army (AA) from opening another front, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, an NCA signatory, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News. 

There were the ARSA's attacks in Maungdaw Township, reported the AA on 26th December 2024.

It attacked the AA's military camp near Mee Daing Village in the northern part of Maungdaw Township, released the ARSA on 3rd January 2025. The AA released on 23rd October 2024 that it seized control of the ARSA's four fortified military camps around Buthidaung and Maungdaw Townships.

While seeing the ARSA

The ARSA attacked the AA, which might be to prevent the AA from opening another front, said Col. Khun Okkar.

" The ARSA seems to be carrying out to prevent the AA's military victories from spilling over into the mainland. It indicates that the AA will take more time militarily to regain control firmly in Rakhine State. In my opinion, it can't be solved locally. It's necessary to know the attitudes of India, Bangladesh and Naypyidaw. At last, because the AA announced that it would discuss at the political roundtable to solve the internal problems, a little bit of control can be achieved." he said.

The AA announced on 29th December 2024 that it would solve the domestic problems through the political means after controlling 14 townships in Rakhine State. 

Because some problem taking place in Rakhine State were racial, it would be necessary to solve them historically, spokesperson of the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA), U Myo Kyaw told CNI News.

While seeing a junction in Rakhine State

" Rohingya, the ARSA and so on are related to racial problems, it's necessary to solve them historically. After 2010, the Rohingya problem became bigger. These problems must be discussed only after taking into account of Rakhine's geopolitics and China's two ocean exit, I think." he said.

Battles took place severely between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the AA in Rakhine State while the AA is launching battles against the ARSA, the RSO and the ARA.

Due tp these battles, Rakhine people were suffering losses and their concerns were rising as well, pointed out military and political analysts.

About 2 million people could face the risk of famine in Rakhine State and in early 2025, the state's food production capacity will only be sufficient to meet 20 percent of the population's needs, estimated the UNDP.

CNI News
8 January 2025

Those who were sending workers Thailand and Malaysia with fake passports were arrested, reported the State Administration Council (SAC) on 6th January 2025.

Eleven Burmese youths, including three young women, brought by Thet Nandar Win, were arrested along with 11 fake passports on the NJo. 1 Myanmar-Thailand froiendship bridge on 29th December 2024.
 
Among 11 people arrested, Nwe Ni Hlaing Min, managing director of One Asia employment agency which was located No. 220, second floor, Upper Block, 37th Street, Kyauktada Township and Khin Maung Shwe, director of the agency got 80 lakh kyats each for service charge from nine people including Ma Hnin Ei Phyu who lived in Taungdwingyi Township; Su Myat aka Su Myat Nanda Win, managing director of Lyan Htet Travel Service which was located at No. 302, third floor, Central Tower, Kyauktada Township got 70 lakh kyats each and made fake passports and had planned to send the workers to Malaysia from Thailand through illegal channels after making fake passports.

So, the Myawaddy Myoma Police Station has opened cases against Nwe Ni Hlaing Min, Bala, and Su Myat, reported the State Administration Council. Nwe Ni Hlaing Min and Bala from One Asia employment agency, Wunna Zaw aka Ko Pauk from Lyan Htet Travel Service, passport forgers, Nyo Min, a passport forger, who lived in Kamayut Township, John Ko Ko aka John Ko and his father Tun Yi who both lived in Hlaing Township, San Win aka Raphee who lived in Pabedan Township and Thant Zin Oo who lived in Dagon Myothit (North) were arrested.

John Ko Ko reportedly made 734 fake passports which 14 people including Bala and Su Myat ordered.

It was carrying out to arrest the remaining suspects who are on the run, reported the SAC.

CNI News

8 January 2025

Buses have been allowed to run to Loi Sang Long aka Zalon Taung, one of the heritage sites of Shanni nationalities in Banmauk Township, Sagaing Region, said locals. 

Buses that would go to Zalon Taung had been banned since 2022 and have been allowed to run again on 6th January 2025.

" Buses that climb up to the pagoda on Loi Sang Long Mountain aka Zalon Taung have been allowed to run this morning." said a Banmauk resident. 

The opening ceremony of the bus line that would go up and down the mountain was held by the board of monks who give counsel or advice, the board of patrons, and the trusteeship as well as regional authorities on the morning of January 6th.

CNI News

8 January 2025

Dialogues were needed to get armed organizations on the path to democracy, chairperson of the Arakan Liberation Party (ALP), an NCA signatory, Daw Saw Mya Raza Lin told CNI News. 

It was necessary to push armed groups to move towards democracy, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC) in his New Year speech on 1st January 2025.

It was necessary to hold dialogues so that the country could reach on the path to democracy and only when answers are obtained from those discussions, the country could reach on the path to democracy through political roundtables, said Daw Saw Mya Raza Lin to CNI News.

"When analyzing politics, leaders may have different views. No matter how much you kit tell people who are fighting in armed struggle to be encouraged to take the path of democracy, I think it will be difficult for them to abandon the armed path unless an answer that can be certainly decided emerges because revolutionary forces have succeeded to an extent, it will be difficult to an extent to make them abandon arms and get on the path to democracy. At present, the political framework is so narrow while the war framework is so wide. Meanwhile, it's unlikely for ordinary people to push armed groups to reach on the path to democracy. Individuals in conflict must discuss with each other to reach a consensus. After a discussion for a while, take a rest. We can't go on like this. We need to discuss it until we get an answer. I think we will get on the path to democracy through the political round table." she said.

While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and some leaders of political parties

Armed groups should act democratically, considering what they want to be and what they should be, and looking to the benefit of the Union, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the SAC. 

Both rival organizations need to reach a common path without holding fixed positions, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News.

"The question of whether it will be easy for these armed groups to follow the democracy that the chairman of the SAC envisions will be answered by the current level of conflict, I think. If they don't follow, it's probably because the path he envisions and the path the armed groups envision are not the same. Can he reduce it to match their expectations? He must think about it. If the chairman holds his position firmly, then on the other hand, armed groups will hold their expectations firmly as well. It will only be the same if we reach a path that can be overlapped. If you talk about democracy, how far have you got into the democratic culture, which you must consider." he said.

While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing on Christmas Day

He believed that the problems encountered in a society where people co-exist can only be solved successfully through democratic means, namely dialogue, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing at the Christmas celebration on 22nd December. 

They will boldly implement the necessary changes to make the revolution successful, said Mahn Win Khine Than, PM of the NUG on 1st January 2025.

Myanmar is not a country that would fall apart if the Myanmar Tatmadaw was no more, he said on 21st August 2024.