CNI News

8 November 2025

The peace process and ceasefire efforts in Myanmar should be carried out as a national process rather than within the term of a particular government, said U Ko Ko Gyi, Chairman of the People’s Party (PP), to CNI News.

Observers of political and military affairs point out that peace cannot be achieved without addressing the fundamental causes of conflict—such as historical backgrounds, ideological differences, and political convictions.

They added that concepts such as maintaining a single national army, recognizing ethnic armed organizations, and granting self-administered regions are all security-based perspectives that cannot be achieved in a short period of time.

U Ko Ko Gyi emphasized that peace is not something that can be accomplished all at once, but rather a continuous national process.

Meeting between leaders of armed groups and the Tatmadaw

“Successive governments have all worked toward peace. But peace is not something that can be completed in one sitting. We must gradually hold broader and more inclusive dialogues. It’s unrealistic for any side to expect to achieve all their goals at once. That’s why we should treat peace as an ongoing process—one that aims for better, more progressive outcomes step by step. It shouldn’t be tied to the term of a government. Peace should be approached and implemented as a national process,” he told CNI News.

Military and political analysts also note that there are various ideas, thoughts, and approaches involved in carrying out peace efforts.

U Ko Ko Gyi further said that political demands should be made formally within the political framework in order to produce sustainable political results.

“Even though there are clashes and gunfire, there must still be communication channels between both sides. Political demands and aspirations can be formally expressed within the political framework.Whe n armed groups seize towns, they may gain control temporarily, but if the other side regains strength, they will seize them back—it becomes a never-ending cycle. That’s why we need to ensure that issues like equality for ethnic nationalities, federalism, separation of powers, and resource sharing are addressed and institutionalized through constitutional reform. Only then can we say the results are legitimate and lasting. Therefore, we need to work toward stable political outcomes,” he explained.

U Aung Min (then Chairman of MPC under President Thein Sein) meeting with Colonel Sai Ngin from the RCSS

In Myanmar, whenever a new government takes office, the people, policies, and organizations involved in the peace process tend to change as well.

As a result, the structures and trust built by previous governments often collapse, leading to stagnation in the peace process.

Currently, fierce fighting continues between the Myanmar military and various ethnic armed groups, while the peace process remains stalled and far from realization.

CNI News

7 November 2025

Political analysts point out that winning an election without any competition feels unusual, and a candidate is only considered dignified if they win after facing rivals.

Although Myanmar's Election Phase (1) is scheduled for December 28, 2025, some political party candidates are winning seats without rival candidates because the constituencies where the elections will be held lack security guarantees.

Among these candidates, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) has 28 members, while the Wa National Party, Akha National Development Party, and Shan and Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP) each have 1 member winning uncontested.

The areas where they have won are constituencies in Kachin State, Sagaing Region, Magway Region, Tanintharyi Region, and Shan State.

The Shan and Nationalities Democratic Party

Political analyst U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News that winning a thoroughly contested election is better, and becoming a representative by running alone and crossing the finish line without a competitor is strange.

He said, "The main thing is that since the other parties couldn't compete in 28 places, there's not much that can be done. It's difficult for other parties to enter these areas. Some try to prepare to contest in those areas, but they face pressure. We hear about those kinds of situations. It doesn't look good when a single candidate runs and wins without the need for a choice, but one thing is that these areas are currently very difficult for other parties to operate in; it's quite hard to enter. Whatever the case, winning a thoroughly contested election is better. It's also strange for a representative who runs alone and wins because there are no rivals. Winning without competition itself is strange. Whatever it is, how many votes you win is a matter of dignity for a candidate. That is better."

The townships where only USDP candidates will be elected for the Pyithu Hluttaw (Lower House) include Naungmon, Mansi, and Shwegu in Kachin State; and Monywa, Wuntho, Mawlaik, Kani, Salin, and Ye-U in Sagaing Region. Additionally, Yebyu and Launglon in Tanintharyi Region, and Matman and Pekhon in Shan State are included.

For the Region/State Hluttaws, the USDP has won 8 seats in Sagaing Region from townships including Kawlin, Wuntho, Taze, Budalin, Mawlaik, Kani, Salin, and Ye-U.

The Wa National Party

U Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai-Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News that since only one candidate is nominated in some constituencies, according to the constitution, if there is no rival, that candidate will win, and there should be no disadvantage.

He said, "That is according to the constitution. If there is no one competing, they will win. I believe there won't be any disadvantage. For the Akha ethnic affairs, since we nominated only one person, there's no need to compete. He will become the minister. When the commission announces the election results after everything is completed, he won't need to compete. The same goes for one person from the 'Wa' area. He is also nominated alone for the Amyotha Hluttaw (Upper House) and doesn't need to compete. Since this is carried out according to the constitution, I don't see any disadvantage. The people who are trying to destroy the election will be threatening. They are threatening other election candidates as well. They are threatening everyone who participates in the election."

According to the Election Law, Chapter (9), Section 41 (a), if there is only one candidate in a constituency, the election does not need to be held, and that candidate shall be declared the winner.

The parties with the highest number of candidates nominated for the election are the USDP, followed by the National Unity Party (NUP/Ta Sa Nya), then the People's Pioneer Party (PPP), the People's Party, and the Shan and Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP).

CNI News

1 November 2025

Political analyst Dr. Aung Myo told CNI News Agency that a Military Service Exemption Tax Bill has been drafted and submitted to the relevant authorities for people in Myanmar who do not wish to serve in the military for various reasons.

The People's Military Service Law was enacted on February 10, 2024, with the aim of ensuring national defense and security duties, and currently, the 17th batch of public military service training is underway.

Dr. Aung Myo, a political analyst, told CNI News Agency that a draft law titled the "Exemption Tax from Serving Public Military Service" has already been prepared, and if the State approves this bill, it will be able to salvage the current situation.

He said "It's my idea. I have drafted a bill called the 'Military service exemption tax,' which is an exemption tax from serving in the public military service. I wrote it and asked for assistance from Captain Khin Maung Sint of the Veterans' Organization to submit the veteran's sentiment to the State. However, the law has not been enacted yet. If it is approved, and people who do not want to serve in the military for various reasons can gain exemption by paying a tax, then the young people, skilled workers, and professionals who have left the country will return. When they return, the country's economy will improve, and the population will increase. Essentially, we need to release that law as a political exit strategy and maintain control."

Military and political observers point out that due to the Military Service Law in Myanmar, many young people are leaving the country, and as a result of being called up for military service, the working-age youth population is decreasing.

Furthermore, military and political observers point out that along with the population decrease, the country is facing conditions such as labor shortages, slowing production, and the dangers associated with a declining population.

Currently, intense fighting is occurring between the Myanmar Armed Forces and armed groups, leading both sides to intensify efforts to call up or arrest young people for military service.

Consequently, political parties and political analysts are attempting various methods to stop the recruitment efforts of the armed organizations.

CNI News
1 November 2025

The hopes of ethnic minorities in Myanmar have yet to be realized, along with the armed conflicts that have persisted since the country gained independence, said U Ko Ko Gyi, Chairman of the People's Party (PP), to CNI News Agency.

Non-Bamar ethnic groups have been waging armed resistance, demanding self-determination and self-administration, equal rights for ethnic minorities, the right to determine their own destiny, the establishment of a federal union, and the flourishing of a democratic system.

U Ko Ko Gyi, Chairman of the People's Party (PP), told CNI News Agency that continuing with the armed approach only leads to the suffering of unarmed civilians and the casualties and destruction of armed groups, with no political outcome.

He said, "The armed conflict has emerged alongside independence, and until now, the hopes that ethnic minorities hold have not been realized. In reality, the people have suffered death, displacement, flight, and hiding due to the conflict for nearly 80 years. Therefore, continuing with the armed approach only causes suffering to the unarmed civilians. Other than the armed groups being destroyed and suffering casualties, I see no political outcome."

While seeing a leader of the Tatmadaw and ethnic minorities

Military and political analysts point out that ethnic groups are federalists and that federalism does not mean secession from the Union. They stress that self-determination and self-administration are essential, and therefore, Section 261, concerning the appointment of the Chief Minister, is a provision that must be amended.

The peace of Myanmar is not solely the concern of the armed groups' role, but also involves the roles of neighboring countries, stated U Ko Ko Gyi, Chairman of the People's Party (PP).

Ethnic armed groups and political parties

He explained, "We must strive for all domestic forces to achieve understanding and agreement regarding our armed conflict. However, at the same time, economic issues and interests related to the armed conflict have also become involved. With their involvement, the role of our neighboring countries also comes into play. Therefore, the peace of our country is not just the responsibility of the armed forces; we must work to ensure that the role of neighboring countries involved, including ASEAN, for example, and the role of regional countries are also integrated, leading to broad-based negotiations."

Despite the presence of many armed organizations in Myanmar, hundreds more armed groups emerged after the political landscape changed on February 1, 2021.

These armed organizations have differing demands and stances from one another.

CNI News

1 November 2025

The population within Myanmar has been gradually declining due to ongoing national instability, according to political analyst U Htet Aung Kyaw, who spoke to CNI News.

Commander-in-Chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing stated on October 27, during the release ceremony of the 2024 Population and Housing Census, that the country’s population had slightly decreased for the first time in a decade.

U Htet Aung Kyaw explained that although Myanmar has a large number of young people who are capable of contributing productively to the nation, political instability and national unrest have caused many of them to migrate abroad for work or education—leading to a decrease in population.

 Youths seen at the census ceremony on October 27, 2025

He said: “When the country is at a stage where it could progress, political crises arise. As a result, young people who could have contributed to national development through industries are instead drawn into armed conflicts. We’ve lost a great number of our human resources that way. Moreover, because many people are worried about these situations and find it difficult to stay in the country, they go abroad for employment or education. That’s why the population has declined. During the very time when we should be harnessing our advantages, political turmoil has weakened us. It’s truly unfortunate for the nation.”

Although Myanmar is geopolitically significant, its population density remains low compared to neighboring countries. According to official data, this is the first population decline in ten years, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said.

U Htet Aung Kyaw emphasized that national institutions must make collective efforts to bring back young people from abroad to contribute to the country’s growth and development.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing seen at the census ceremony on October 27, 2025.

“Those who leave the country don’t do so because they no longer love their homeland. It’s simply because they are facing many difficulties right now. When they go abroad, it’s not that they’re living idly—those who work are working hard, and those who study are pursuing their education. Therefore, if our young people gain experience and knowledge overseas, they could contribute significantly if we create opportunities for them to return and participate in national development. If we fail to do so, the situation will only worsen. Everyone needs to work together to make this possible.”, he added.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing also warned that neglecting the youth could lead to a “Demographic Burden” and eventually to a “Demographic Disaster”—a severe population decline that could threaten national stability and peace.

CNI News

31 October 2025

If the Arakan Army (AA) makes any mistakes or takes a wrong turn in its governance and territorial control efforts in northern Rakhine State, it will not be able to contain the growing strength of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), said U Thein Tun Oo, Executive Director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies, in an interview with CNI News.

He said, “How many people does ARSA actually have on the ground? What are their objectives? How far do they intend to go? When the AA gains control over territory, will it truly be able to govern effectively? These are issues that must be carefully analyzed based on available data. If the AA’s operations go in the wrong direction or if any mistakes occur, I don’t think they will be able to stop ARSA’s growing influence — that’s quite clear. When numerous conflicts occur on the ground but there is no well-structured mechanism to resolve them, major problems will inevitably follow. Especially, if things continue this way, even the AA itself could eventually face difficulties living and operating in those areas under increasingly tense conditions,” he said.

A junction in Rakhine State

Currently, in the northern Rakhine towns under AA control — Maungdaw, Buthidaung, and Rathedaung — attacks by the Muslim armed group ARSA have expanded significantly throughout 2025.

Between May and October 2025, around 50 civilians were killed in shootings and executions carried out by ARSA, according to local Rakhine authorities.

Military and political analysts report that ARSA’s activities in Rakhine State have increased compared to previous years and that the group primarily targets civilians.

According to U Myo Kyaw from the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA), ARSA’s growing strength could put serious pressure on Rakhine’s political landscape, as it draws support and resources from extremist sympathizers around the world.

ARSA troops

He said, “The influence on Rakhine politics from groups like ARSA and ARSO doesn’t come solely from inside Myanmar. Behind them are global networks of extremist elements — people who are driven by religious extremism and territorial ambitions. If such forces become involved, it could create immense pressure on Rakhine’s politics. However, both the Rakhine people and the Muslims living in Rakhine must work together to present the true situation and historical background to the international community, especially to the United Nations and other world nations. The world is not unaware of what’s happening — but sometimes, due to geopolitical interests or strategic needs, powerful countries portray situations in a certain way. Small nations like ours must be careful not to become mere pawns in the global geopolitical chessboard,” he said.

Analysts also suggest that ARSA and ARSO have been receiving significant support from the Bangladesh Border Guard (BGB) and are infiltrating Rakhine’s Maungdaw District via the Naf River and Mayu Mountain Range routes.

At present, the AA has announced that it is conducting clearance operations against ARSA and ARSO forces in northern Rakhine State.

CNI News

31 October 2025

As Myanmar’s civil war continues to drag on, achieving peace will only become more distant, said Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), to CNI News.

He explained that if all armed groups put the nation’s interests first and learn lessons from the past, peace could still be attainable.

Political analysts also noted that within ongoing peace processes, there are many differing views, thoughts, and approaches being taken.

Sai Htay Aung emphasized that “the longer the civil war lasts, the harder it will be to achieve peace. But if we can learn lessons from past experiences, peace can be achieved more quickly. Right now, the number of armed groups keeps increasing. We need to reflect on why that is happening. When one side uses the force of arms to dominate, others respond by taking up arms themselves — and that cycle keeps multiplying the number of armed groups. Every new armed group formed adds another burden on the people.

Those who attended the NCA anniversary ceremony

For example, if we look at the KIA and SNA — the KIA used armed force and oppressed the Shan majority population. When that happened, and cooperation with the Tatmadaw (Myanmar military) was ineffective, another armed group — the SNA — was formed to counter them. That’s why I say the longer the civil war goes on, the further peace will be. But if all armed groups act selflessly, put the nation first, and learn from the past, peace can be achieved sooner,” said.

Armed conflicts in Myanmar have existed since the country’s independence in 1948 and continue to this day.

Efforts to achieve peace have taken many forms — exchanging arms for peace, arms for economic gains, and even building peace while keeping arms.

Outside the electoral process, armed conflicts continue to persist. However, U Ko Ko Gyi, Chairman of the People’s Party (PP), told CNI News that once ethnic representatives enter parliament after the election, peace processes could become more representative.

“Elections cannot solve all problems politically, but they can open the path to solutions. Armed struggle has proven ineffective — past experiences have shown that.

Those who attended the NCA anniversary ceremony

In previous elections, armed conflicts continued outside the electoral system. Therefore, we must continue engaging in dialogue with armed forces, review the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), and work to revitalize it. Elections also bring political representation, which makes dialogue more inclusive and stronger.Currently, the Tatmadaw leads and makes decisions in the peace process. After the election, ethnic representatives and democratic forces will also participate, making peace efforts broader and more inclusive,” he said.

Myanmar’s first phase of the general election is scheduled for December 28, 2025, across 102 townships. The second phase will be held in January 2026, covering another 100 townships.

However, analysts note that public trust and interest in the upcoming election are low, as previous election results were annulled on grounds of alleged voter list disputes.

Currently, 10 armed groups have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), but CNF, ABSDF, and KNU have withdrawn, effectively rendering the agreement void.
Fighting continues between the Myanmar military and these former NCA signatories, as well as with non-signatories such as the KIA, TNLA, AA, and MNDAA.

Additionally, since the military coup on February 1, 2021, clashes have erupted with hundreds of newly formed People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) nationwide.

CNI News

30 October 2025

The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) announced on October 29, 2025, that its troops will withdraw from Mogok and Momauk towns following the signing of a bilateral ceasefire agreement.

The talks were held in Kyukok (Pansai) from October 27 to 28, 2025, under the mediation of China. Delegations were led by Lieutenant General Ko Ko Oo from the Myanmar military and Deputy Commander-in-Chief Tar Jock Jar from the TNLA.

This was the ninth round of talks between the two sides, and they reached an agreement to enforce the ceasefire starting from October 29, 2025.

The TNLA stated “Through the mediation and coordination of the Chinese Special Envoy, both sides were able to hold reciprocal discussions and negotiations. According to the agreed terms, TNLA forces will withdraw from Mogok and Momauk townships within the designated period, while the Myanmar military will refrain from conducting airstrikes and offensive operations in TNLA-controlled areas. Starting from October 29, 2025, both sides have agreed to halt their troops at their current positions and signed the bilateral ceasefire agreement.”

However, TNLA did not specify the exact timeline or duration for the complete withdrawal from Mogok and Momauk.

The TNLA had previously captured 12 townships during its 1027 military offensive. Later, beginning in June–July 2025, the Myanmar military retook control of several areas including Naungcho, Kyaukme, and Hsipaw.

CNI News

30 October 2025

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, stated that neglecting young people could lead to a Demographic Burden and a decrease in stability and peace, and in the worst-case scenario, it could result in a Demographic Disaster (the danger of population decline).

He made this statement at the ceremony in Nay Pyi Taw on October 27, 2025, for the release of the Union Report on the 2024 Population and Housing Census.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said, "In many countries around the world, when young people are nurtured, fostered, and provided with opportunities and hopes, they become the driving force for the country's development. By investing beneficially in our youth today, we can seize the benefits of the Demographic Dividend in the future. Otherwise, if our youth are neglected, it could lead to a Demographic Burden and a decrease in stability and peace, and in the worst-case scenario, a Demographic Disaster (the danger of population decline)."

Myanmar youths

Therefore, he stressed the need to formulate and adopt population policies appropriate for the country to achieve a desirable and suitable population that aligns with Myanmar's land, water, and natural resources. He added that preparations must be made by looking ahead for a generation, emphasizing that "You cannot dig a well now and expect to drink clear water immediately."

According to the 2024 census data, the country's population has decreased slightly for the first time in decades. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said this is due to a decline in the birth rate, high migration rates, and changes in family patterns, which present both a challenge and an opportunity.

He noted that outward migration depends on the country's socio-economic conditions, political stability, domestic employment opportunities, and the economic development of neighboring countries. Therefore, long-term development plans must be established and implemented to manage and guide the situation.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing seen at a census ceremony

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing stated, "Although outward migration is high among our country’s youth, as a result of a previously high birth rate, the number of young, working-age people is still large. In other words, we are still in a period where we can reap the Demographic Bonus, also known as the Demographic Dividend. Therefore, it is crucial to properly and effectively manage these young people to benefit national development efforts before the period for receiving the Demographic Dividend runs out."

In Myanmar, censuses were conducted eight times between 1872 and 1941 before independence. Subsequently, censuses were conducted in 1973, 1983, 2014, and 2024.