CNI News

30 October 2024

Because the MNDAA is facing not only a variety of pressures but also airstrikes, whether it might lose control of Lashio is being asked by military and political analysts. 

The MNDAA captured Lashio during the second wave of Operation-1027 and is trying to build urban administration.

And then, the Myanmar Tatmadaw is putting pressure on the MNDAA by carrying out airstrikes to Lashio so that the MNDAA can't establish administration as well as to make the MNDAA retreat from Lashio. In the same way, the Chinese government also is putting pressure on the MNDAA to retreat from Lashio.

It was less likely that the MNDAA would relinquish Lashio without reaching a political agreement, chairman of the PNLO NCA/S, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

" In my opinion, the MNDAA won't give up without holding a discussion. Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing will go to China on 7th, 8th on 9th November. When he come back, he will take an answer with him, I think. if the MNDAA, the TNLA and the AA want the SAC to stop bombing, they need to talk with the SAC. They might forsake towns only if a political agreement is reached because they had to try hard to capture the towns. For the time being, they won't let go of the towns under the cuurent pressure, I think." he said.

While seeing leaders from the UWSA and the MNDAA

Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing will go to China and he might come ba.ck with a result after meeting with the leaders of the Chinese government, said military and political analysts. 

Chinese Special Envoy Deng Xijun met with the delegation of the United Wa State Army led by vice chairman Zhao Kau An on 27th August 2024 and asked about the situations regarding battles in northern Shan State and the Naypyidaw government.

Although China has closed down the border gates with the MNDAA, as the MNDAA was taking resources such as rice, oil, medicine, weapons, and so on, it could continue to wage battles, so the UWSA must block and inspect so that any resources could not arrive in the hands of the MNDAA, said Deng Xijun during the meeting.

China didn't want that the Myanmar Tatmadaw would collapse; China wouldn't accept at all that the NUG/PDFs close to western countries would win, said Deng Xijun.

China was putting pressure on the MNDAA, the TNLA, UWSA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw to sit at the political roundtable, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a Myanmar-China affairs commentator, told CNI News.

While seeing Mr. Deng Xijun

" The military council asked to give Lashio and Theinni back. It said it would attend the meeting only after it got them. When China told the MNDAA about it, the MNDAA replied to China that it would not give the towns to the military council. But the MNDAA had to give in what it could. It's not easy for the MNDAA and the TNLA. The China's strategy is to make Myanmar peaceful ASAP. So, it is putting pressure on the MNDAA, the TNLA, the UWSA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw to sit at the political roundtable." she said.

As long as the Kokang troops didn't retreat from Lashio, China wouldn't lift the sanctions on the MNDAA; on top of that, China would continue to take more severe actions against the MNDAA, said Deng Xijun.

Although China is putting pressure on the TNLA and the MNDAA to stop battles and the MNDAA to retreat from Lashio, in cooperation with the PDFs, they are fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw in northern Shan State and Mandalay Region.

CNI News

30 October 2024

The Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA) showed its military strength by patrolling in Mohnyin with several hundreds of its troops, said locals. The SNA showed its military strength, making its columns march on 28th October 2024.

The SNA was formed in July, 1989 and is a Shanni armed group that is trying to establish Shanni State after gathering Tamu District, Homalin District, Khamti District, Katha District, Banmauk District, Mawlike District and Kalay District in Sagaing Region as well as Myitkyina District, Mohnyin District, Mogaung District, Bhamo District, Karmine and Inndawgyi region in Kachin State.

The SNA is being active in Tamu, Phaungbyin, Khamti, Homalin, Mawlike, Pinlebu, Katha, Banmauk, Indian border, Hpakant, Karmine, Mohnyin, Mogaung and alomg the railway. 

And then, the SNA is making attempts to protect Shanni people and the civilians living in Sagaing Region and Kachin State from being bullied by local armed groups as well as to establish a federal democratic union.

CNI News

30 October 2024

Reserve foreign currencies and gold stored in the Central Bank of Myanmar should not be sold more than necessity with a view to making the prices of foreign currencies and gold fall, pointed out economic commentators. 

Instead of solving for a short term by selling reserve foreign currencies and gold, the root cause must be found out and solved; as long as it could not be solved like this, one problem or another would be emerging, U Htay Aung Kyi, a banking expert, told CNI News.

" I had said there was a question: up to what time reserve foreign currencies and gold would be sold. In the demand and supply of foreign currency, the supply is weak, which is main problem. If the main problem cannot be solved, consequence problems will be existing. To be able to solve the root cause depends on our political and economic structures. I had said it was essential to change ways of thinking about the whole structure. As long as the root cause cannot be solved, consequence problems will emerge." he said.

The trip of the SAC chairman to China in November might have anything to do with financial cases and they have never found any countries that have progressed because of China. Sri Lanka and Bangladesh were examples, pointed out economic commentators. 

Although the trip could impact on Myanmar, it was necessary to carry out to make sure that Myanmar would not be like those countries, they said. 

Bar of gold, and dollar

If reserve gold and foreign currencies were sold recklessly, it would be difficult for a new government that would come to power through the 2025 election, an economic commentator told CNI News.

" The Central Bank of Myanmar very often sells foreign currencies. It never sold foreign currencies like this and the bank is selling reserve gold as well, which must be taken in account. Frankly speaking, a general election will be held next year. Without considering for the sake of the government that will come to power through the election, the bank will use reserve gold and foreign currencies as it like kind of because the prices of gold and foreign currencies have fallen and been stable." he said.

Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the SAC will go to China in November in order to receive help and support from China and he might borrow some loans from China, presumed economic commentators.

In negotiating and discussing so as to receive help and support from China, China might demand some things for its interests; as China wants to implement the One Belt One Road Project, it might demand Myanmar to implement the project, they made comments.

CNI News

29 October 2024

As the Bamar People's Liberation Army (BPLA) has notified that it will wage battles against the Myanmar Tatmadaw in the upcountry, military and political analysts are asking questions about what could happen there. 

27th October was the first anniversary of Operation-1027; their Spring Revolution forces progressed a lot under the leadership of the Three Brotherhood Alliance; they would never forget that gratitude, wrote Maung Saung Kha, leader of the BPLA, on his Facebook page on 27th October 2024.

" One thing I want to let the people know is that the BPLA will set foot in the upcountry and carry out military operations. I hope the people in the upcountry will welcome us." he said. 

While seeing No.6 military training graduation of the BPLA

If battles were waged in the upcountry, worse consequences could emerge, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNI News.

" If Operation-1027 was analyzed, the PDFs from the upcountry attacked from many places. If a big battle takes a long time, the PDFs will suffer the most. Which forces will they cooperate with? There's something to think about. Even for the time being, they are suffering the most. If they will wage battles anymore, they will face worse consequences." he said.

If the military operations were waged with wrong objectives anymore, the PDFs would act like damaging their regions kind of, pointed out political analysts.

The military operations would enter the Shan-Man military operation and Sagaing Region and the BPLA would mainly take part in the operations, and it was believed that they would receive manpower and weapons from the Three Brotherhood Alliance, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.

While seeing Maung Saung Kha, leader of the BPLA and Baw Kyaw Hae, Deputy C in C of the KNU

" As the BPLA cooperated with the MNDAA and the TNLA in the military operations, the BPLA troops will mainly enter and carry out the Shan-Man military operation and Sagaing Region. This is a really necessary situation to become. They had formed a military division in cooperation with the MNDAA to support the Shan-Man operation. And as the BPLA had cooperated with the TNLA, I believe the BPLA can receive manpower and weapons from the Three Brotherhood Alliance." he said.

If military operations were waged in the upcountry, the BPLA troops and PDFs could consider defending the Myanmar Tatmadaw's airstrikes and offensives rather than defending the lives and properties of the people from the upcountry, pointed out political analysts.

If the BPLA carried out military operations in the upcountry, human death and house damages could increase there; regional trade and agricultural industries could be damaged as well, pointed out military analysts. 

While seeing the BPLA troops

Under the leadership of Maung Saung Kha, the BPLA was formed with the help and support from the AA and the KNU on 17th April 2021.

In cooperation with the KNU and the AA, the BPLA took military experiences from the battles in Karen and Rakhine States as well as those in northern Shan State in cooperation with the three northern allies (MNDAA,TNLA,AA).

At present, the BPLA has currently made allies with the AA, the KNU, the Karenni Army (KA), the MNDAA, the NUG, the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the TNLA, the SAF, and the People's Revolution Union (Magway).The BPLA bases on the territories controlled by the KNU and the MNDAA and carries out military operations fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw.

CNI News

29 October 2024

After the announcement that trade of gold is that of an important commodity, planning to designate the reference price could grow the black market, pointed out gold market analysts.

After designating gold as an important commodity, restricting, forbidding, supervising the gold market and price might be conducted. 

Moreover, gold traders and entrepreneurs could be taken action against and arrested. However, it wouldn't be effective, Ko Nay Khant, a gold market analyst, told CNI News.

While seeing a bar of Academy gold

" Gold was designated as an important commodity in the past as well. But this time, a committee has become an extra. It is the committee on designating price of gold. Another organization has arisen besides the Yangon Gold Entrepreneurs Association (YGEA). In the past whey they designated gold as an important commodity, gold entrepreneurs were inspected and arrested for a short time. This time as well, they'll seem to do so. For the time being, shop owners and traders are all quiet. They will be quiet for a couple of weeks. It won't be effective. The black market could be bigger." he said.

The committee on designating reference price of metal (gold) is holding online after which the approved reference price will be issued.

Although the government was controlling and restricting the prices of gold and dollar to make the prices of foodstuffs fall, the commodity price didn't fall and it could cure the inflation just in the short term, a businessman told CNI News.

While seeing a gold shop

" Gold must not be controlled but commodity mainly. The government controls money and gold only, but it doesn't impact on the commodity price. It's mainly necessary to impact on the foodstuffs. If not so, there's no point. If the prices of gold and dollar go up, prices of other things rise as well, but even though the prices of gold and dollar fell, the prices of other things didn't fall. But it just could reduce the inflation for a while." he said.

There is not a situation in which gold and dollar markets cannot be controlled because of conflicts taking place within the country; while controlling the gold and dollar markets, scarcity of commodity and higher prices are taking place. 

Moreover, the current price of pure gold is 65 lakh kyats per tical and it is less likely to fall down less than 60 lakh kyats, pointed out gold market analysts.

CNI News

29 October 2024

The Bamar People's Liberation Army (BPLA) will be able to wage military operations in upcountry region, announced leader of the BPLA, Maung Saung Kha on his Facebook page on 27th October 2024. 

That day was the first anniversary of Operation-1027; their revolutionary forces progressed a lot under the leadership of the Three Brotherhood Alliance; they would never forget the TBA's gratitude, wrote Maung Saung Kha.

" One thing I want to let the people know is that the BPLA will set foot in the upcountry and carry out military operations. I hope the people in the upcountry will welcome us." he said. However, he did not express exactly which places of the upcountry where the BPLA would wage military operations.

The BPLA has been organizing revolutionary forces for a long time in some townships in Sagaing, Magway and Mandalay Regions and as grouping strength became better, it might inform the people that it would carry out military operations, said those who are close to the BPLA.

While seeing the BPLA

The BPLA was formed with the help and assistance from the Arakan Army (AA) and the Karen National Union (KNU) on 17 April 2021. 

And then, in cooperation with the KNU and the AA, the BPLA took military experiences in the battles where were waged in Karen and Rakhine States as well as in Operation-1027 that was launched by the three northern allies (MNDAA,TNLA,AA) together with them.

The BPLA has currently made allies with the AA, the KNU, the Karenni Army (KA), the MNDAA, the NUG, the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the TNLA, the SAF, and the People's Revolution Union (Magway).

The BPLA bases on the territories controlled by the KNU and the MNDAA and carries out military operations fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw.

CNI News

28 October 2024

He believed that India would go on existing as one of the most valuable trade partner for Myanmar, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the SAC.

He said the above at the 60th anniversary celebration of the India's technology and cooperation program on 24th October 2024. 

India has existed as the seventh trade partner of Myanmar and total trade value between the two countries was 1150.181 million dollars until February in the 2023-2024 fiscal year. 

The number of countries and regions which came and invested in Myanmar was 53 and according to the list of investment until January 2024, India's investment stood on the 11th level, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

" I believe that India will go on existing as one of the most valuable trade partner. India's technology and economic cooperation program promoted trust, fraternity, mutual respect and cooperation in the multi sectors between the two countries." he said. 

At present, border trade between Myanmar and India has stopped due to territorial instabilities while the Kaladan River Project also has stopped as well.

However, medicine, medical equipment, pulses and consumer goods are being traded by sea between the two countries

CNI News

28 October 2024

Because some are objecting to what the National Socialist Council of Naga-Khaplang/ Anmai (NSCN-K/AM) will sign the ceasefire with the Myanmar Tatmadaw after discussion, everyone is interested in what is the attitude of the Naga National Party (NNP) towards what the NSCN-K/AM will sign the ceasefire.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw and the NSCN-K/AM discussed on 26th January 2024 and on 5th February 2024 in Khamti about the ceasefire and the security of Naga region.

And then, the two sides discussed in Monywa in the second week of September 2024 and for the fourth time, they discussed in Khamti on 27th September 2024 and agreed to sign the preliminary ceasefire agreement at the Region level. 

However, they have not been able to sign the agreement up to now (25th October 2024) for some reasons. They are making preparation to go on discussing.

While seeing Anmai, leader of the NSCN-K/AM

The National Socialist Council of Naga-Khaplang/Yung Aung (NSCN-K/YA) led by U Yung Aung is objecting to what the NSCN-K/AM will sign the ceasefire and if the NSCN-K/AM signed the ceasefire, it would be designated as a protestor of the national movement, released on 22nd October the NSCN-K/YA.

The NSCN-K/YA expressed its political position kind of and supporting or protesting might be their normal response, chairman of the Naga National Party, U Shu Maung told CNI News.

" The NSCN-/YA has expressed its political position kind of and it's their normal response. It might emerge clashes. But it won't produce a worrisome situation. If one of the worst situation appeared, they would want to tell that is their political position." he said.

While seeing the NSCN-K/YA

Whether the NSCN-K/AM would sign the ceasefire or not, the NSCN-K/YA would not allow any performance that would hurt their region for the sake of anyone who wanted to corrupt, announced the NSCN-K/YA. Battles often take place between the NSCN_K/AM and the NSCN-K/YA.

If armed groups started walking on the political path, the government should welcome it, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News.

" If armed groups start walking on the path of peace, they should be welcome by the governments because the political problem can be solved by means of political dialogue. There are a lot of armed groups walking on the political path. There were about 10 NCA signatories. But some of them resigned from the NCA. It's not good. Having persuaded the NCA signatories, the government should carry out to win a political improvement. If there are seven NCA signatories, the three NCA signatories that have resigned will have to be persuaded. Moreover, if new armed groups want to sign the NCA, they should be welcome. the National Solidarity and Peacekeeping Negotiation Committee should welcome the Naga group." he said.

While seeing the ENNO/ENDA

The NSCN-K/AM is negotiating with the Myanmar Tatmadaw to sign a Region level ceasefire and later it would consider whether it should go to the Union level. 

Naga armed groups are the NSCN-K/YA, the NSCN-K/AM, the ENNO/ENDA and the NPDF at present. 

The NSCN-K/N and the NSCN-K/KH made peace with the Indian government and are living on the Indian side.

U Aung Sai who was dismissed from the NSCN-K form the East Naga Defense Army (ENNO/ENDA) with the military help from the KIA and it is fighting with the KIA in the Spring Revolution.

CNI Article 

The Writing- Chit Min Tun

28 October 2024 

India gained its independence in 1947 from under the British colonial rule on 15th August 1947 and kept staying as a dominion country for three years. 

And then, India became a separate independent country on 26th January 1950 after the constitution that was drafted for two years was finished. 

Myanmar gained its independence on 4th January 1948 from under the British colonial rule as well.

So, India and Myanmar historically have similarities in some parts and a variety of races are living in both countries. For example, Meitei, Naga, Shan, Chin and so on are living in both countries and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoran and Aruna Chaparadesh States (There were Assam and Manipur States only in the past) had been under the rule of Myanmar kings. But now they are part of India.

In the same way, as most of the laws enacted in Myanmar derived from India, India and Myanmar have historically similarities in some parts.

So, some elements are trying to solve ethnic issues and reform Myanmar politics while even heads of the Myanmar Tatmadaw have said that having studied the India's federalism, a federal union should be established in Myanmar.

According to above-mentioned conditions, because it was necessary to study the constitution of India and its political systems, I'd like to share subjects and experience I had to study when I was in India. I went to India in May, 2018 and spent over one week there studying the India's political situations and rights for ethnic groups.

Staying in New Daily and Inpha and Moreh Towns, Manipur State where Meitei, Assam and Naga armed groups have been active, I could study the constitution and rights for ethnic groups.

While seeing Meitei kings and commanders in chief in the museum

India's multi-culturalism
*************************
India is made up of seven union territories, 28 States and over 200 ethnicities. In the same way, there are a variety of religions and languages that are spoken in India as well.

Hindi and English have been enacted as office languages. However, in the states that have been made up of national characters, in addition to Hindi and English, languages of the tribes living in the states are allowed to use as official languages.

For example, in Nagaland State, Hindi, English and Naga have been designated as office languages and in Manipur State, Hindi, English and Meitei, as office languages. 

So, 14 languages including main languages, Hindi and English have been enacted as office languages.

National races have been allowed to keep and look after their flagship buildings, icons and lifeless things of national races. 

Meitei people have been allowed to keep and look after the old palace of HIJAGANG, a Meitei king and the historical military museum honoring  PRONA BRAJABASI, a Meitei C in C.

However, discrimination between lower caste and higher caste cannot be removed up to now while the unity between Hindi and Islam still cannot be built.

While seeing Meitei, English and Hindi languages written on the Martyr Mausoleum in Manipur State

Multi-culturalism of Myanmar
********************************
Myanmar is a country where a variety of races are living, which is enacted in Section 3, principles of the State of Chapter-1 of the 2008 Constitution. 

According to Section-21 of the 2008 Constitution, every citizen can enjoy equal right, freedom and justice opportunities.

Moreover, according to Section-22 (a) of the constitution, the State will help develop languages, literature, arts and culture of the national races and according to Section-22 (b), the State will help develop the unity, fraternity and help among the national races.

Diversities of background histories, traditional cultures, literatures, languages and national characters of the national races living in Myanmar are accepted and recognized and implementing a union character together is agreed, according to the Chapter (1), Clause-1 (f) of the Nationwide Ceasefire agreement (NCA) that was signed by the government, the Tatmadaw and EAOs.

However, in the 21st Century Panglong Conference that was held from 19th to 21st August 2020, although chairman of the RCSS/SSA and the leader of the 10 NCA signatories, a Shan ethnic, wanted to deliver a speech with his mother tongue, he had to speak in Burmese because the government didn't allow him to do so.

So, the above-mentioned incident was different from provisions described in the 2008 constitution and from the agreements described in the NCA.

How India carries out security operation
**********************************************
India is facing secession movements of Meitei, Naga, Assam and Bodolan armed groups in the seven northeastern States including Nagaland, Manipur, Aruna Chaparadesh and Mizoran States. 

In the same way, it is facing secession attempts of Sikh and Muslims in Kashmir and Punjab States. India is carrying out security operations for its stability with the Assam Rifle Force, the Special Force, the Police Force, the Special Police Force and the Border Guard Force.

The Assam Rifle Force, Special Force, the Police Force and the Special Police Force are carrying out security operation in Inpha Town, Manipur State around the clock. 

On the other hand, the Indian government is discussing peace with armed groups and especially with the National Socialist Council of Naga led by Isak Chishi Swu and Muivah. Moreover, bank security staffs have been allowed to hold guns so as not to enable banks to be robbed.

Moreover, ethnic people who are the same ethnicity as ethnic armed groups fighting against the central government have been appointed as senior government staffs in order to  maintain stability and those who are the same ethnicity as ethnic armed groups are appointed as chief minister of state to maintain one another.

While seeing the entrance to the historical museum of a Meitei Commander in Chief

How has India controlled armed forces?
******************************************
In the constitution of India, commander in chief of the armed forces is the President. However, army, navy, air force and coastal guard forces are managed by the ministry of defense. 

Moreover, police force, reserve army forces, central armed police force and some special forces are controlled by the ministry of home affairs while some special forces are kept under the intelligence unit of the ministry of foreign affairs.

The Central Armed Police Forces that is made up of the Bureau of Special Force (BSF), the Central Industrial Force (CIF), the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), the India-Tibet Border Police (ITBP), the National Security Guard Force (NSG), the Border Special Bureau, the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) and so on is kept under the ministry of home affairs.

The book on constitution and enacted laws relating to armed forces of five federal countries written by Dr. Salai Ngwe Kyown Lian should be read to know in detail.

How are armed forces controlled in Myanmar
*************************************************
According to Section-20 (b) of the 2008 Constitution of Myanmar, the Tatmadaw has the right to independently manage all the matters relating to armed forces. 

The Commander in Chief is the head of all the armed forces in the constitution. In the same way, according to the 2008 constitution, the C in C has the authority to appoint the defense minister, the minister for home affairs and the minister for security and border affairs. 

EAOs fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw because they dislike the constitution and the ruling system are not under the command of the Tatmadaw. 

However, some troops from EAOs that changed into the border guard forces and the militia after making peace with the Tatmadaw are under the command of the Tatmadaw.

In the same way, self-organized militia are under the command of the C in C of the armed forces.

While security forces have been deployed in Inpha Town, Manipur State

According to the constitution of India, division of legislative power
*********************************************************************
According to the constitution of India, there are laws related to the central government and ones related to states while there are issues which the central government and states must cooperate. 

The constitution of India took nearly two years to finish writing after studying advantages and disadvantages in the provisions of the constitutions from Australia, Britain and the US.

According to the constitution, division of legislative power is divided into three kinds and there are 97 cases which the union can enact the laws and carry out, and 66 cases, states and 47 cases, the union and the states together.

Matters relating to army, navy and air force, atomic power, declaring war, citizenship, railway transport, post and telegram, foreign relation, banking industry, financial system, foreign trade, performance of public industry and so on, important issues are included in the 97 cases in relation to the union.

Laws and order restoration of the state, regional government, police, prison and moral reformation camps, public health, education, agriculture, water supply, fishery industry, commerce within the state, agricultural tax and so on are included in the 66 cases which states can enact and carry out.

Procedures relating to penal code, marriage and divorce, handing materials over, bonds, bankruptcy, procedures on trial to be complied, matters relating to forestry, religious associations, cases relating to press are included in the 47 cases which the union and states have to enact the laws and carry out together.

If there are any problems about the division of legislative power between the union and states, the law which the union parliament enacts can make a decision and because legislature of states is void, the laws the union enacts supersede on the laws states enact  

By studying the above-mentioned facts and information, you can consider which provisions from the constitution of India should be taken in building a federal union in Myanmar in the future, I think.

Reference

-Federal Affairs (book)

Constitutions and Provisions relating to armed forces of five federal countries (book)

Interview - discussing with Indian citizen professor Mr. Horam