CNI News

15 May 2025

If China is able to negotiate with the SAC and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), it could continue to negotiate with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) rather than the Arakan Army (AA), Pa-O National Liberation Army (PNLO-NCA/S) chairman Colonel Khun Ukka told CNI News. 

Because Rakhine State is far from the Chinese border, it might not be on China's priority list for negotiations, he said, adding that the KIA and China share a border and have other issues, so negotiations with the KIA can take place after negotiating with the TNLA.

"It was reported that a 7 point agreement has been reached in relation to returning Lashio to the SAC by the MNDAA. According to the agreement, the MNDAA has returned to its place. But in the case of the TNLA, Chinese pressure is political and diplomatic. In reality, it is fear pressure. Peer pressure. I heard that the “Wa” has taken responsibility for facilitating the TNLA issue. Therefore, I believe that the “Wa” will negotiate with the TNLA and ensure that any side doesn't suffer. However, since the ULA/AA is far from the Chinese border, it might not be on China's priority list to negotiate. We heard that China wants to negotiate with the KIA before negotiating with the AA because the KIA shares a border with China. There are border trades as well. And China has other issues with the KIA." said Col. Khun Okkar.

Leader of the KIA General N'Ban La

Due to Chinese pressure and mediation, the Kokang Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) was forced to hand over the captured Lashio city and the Northeast Command to the Myanmar Tatmadaw on April 21, 2025. 

However, the MNDAA has been allowed to control over an area beyond the Kokang Self-Administered Zone, which is defined in Article 56(e) of the 2008 Constitution by combining Kon Kyan Township and Laukkai Township in Shan State. China then created the conditions for talks between the TNLA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw, once on February 15-16, 2025, and once on April 28-29.

During those talks, the Myanmar military demanded that TNLA troops withdraw from Mogok, Naung Cho, Kyaukme, Thibaw, and Namkham into the Palaung Self-Administered Zone, but no agreement was reached, and they agreed to meet again in August. 

China, which is a one-party state, is slow to act on any issue, and may be able to negotiate with other groups in the border region, China-Myanmar affairs analyst Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw told CNI News.

" China will negotiate with one organization after another. China is very patient in this kind of matter. Now, it seems like China negotiated with the MNDAA. The MNDAA had to retreat from Lashio, but it has gained many towns and cities and some of them are bigger than Laukkai. the MNDAA must develop them itself. After considering that, the TNLA also may make some concessions. China will negotiate with other organizations on the border  after doing with the TNLA, I think. The Chinese Communist Party is different from other parties in other countries. When one party holds power, it can set long-term policies. It can set long-term principles. So, it will do it gradually. It will negotiate with one after another.”she said.

The SAC Chairman and Chinese President Xi Jinping

Chinese President Xi Jinping said he would continue to support Myanmar's peace efforts during a meeting with the SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in Moscow, Russia, on May 9, 2025. 

Fierce battles are ongoing across Myanmar between ethnic armed organizations (EAOs)/the People's Defense Forces (PDF), and the Myanmar Tatmadaw. In the midst of these clashes, the AA-TNLA-MNDAA launched Operation 1027 in northern Shan State on October 27, 2023. 

During that operation, the AA-TNLA-MNDAA captured almost the entire northern region of Shan State and the Northeast Command.

On the other hand, the KIA, in collaboration with the PDF, is waging battles for control of towns in Kachin State and Sagaing Region. Similarly, the AA controls 14 out of 17 townships in Rakhine State, including Paletwa town, in Chin State, and in collaboration with local armed groups is also fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw in Ayeyarwady, Magway, and Sagaing regions. Therefore, China is trying to mediate and facilitate peace talks between the KIA-AA-TNLA-MNDAA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw.

CNI News

15 May 2025

Political parties are concerned that the public will become non-voters in the elections that are being prepared by the SAC, according to a joint statement by 32 political parties.
Led by the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), leaders of 32 political parties met in Yangon on May 12, 2025. And then, they jointly issued an 18-point statement.

Because elections are for the interest of all citizens, everyone should work together to make the elections successful; although the government and the UEC are making efforts to hold free and fair elections, people may become non-voters may become non-voters due to terrorist acts by terrorists, which they discussed.

So, Campaigns should be carried out to encourage people to vote, explaining to them that voting is very important for the future, which they discussed.

The joint statement by 32 political parties

The SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has said that elections will be held in Myanmar between December 2025 and January 2026. 

However, the National Unity Government (NUG), the National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC), some ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), the People's Defense Forces (PDF), and democracy activists, who are fighting to overthrow the SAC and the Myanmar Tatmadaw, have declared that they will sabotage the elections to be held by the SAC.

Then, on May 10, 2025, the NUCC issued a statement warning registered political parties not to participate in the mock election to be held by the SAC. Battles are taking place across Myanmar, with the SAC losing control of more than 90 towns and cities, and the role of political parties is dim, said in the joint statement.

The USDP, the Arakan Front Party, the Shan and Nationalities Democratic Party. the National Unity Party, the New Democracy Party (Kachin), the Lisu National Development Party, the Kumi National Party and the Mon Progressive Party are included in the joint statement

CNI News

14 May 2025

The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing was further proof that China stands behind the SAC, Colonel Khun Okkar, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), told CNI News. 

They two attended the 80th Anniversary Victory Celebration of the Great Patriotic War 1941-1945 that was held in Moscow, Russia and met on May 9, 2025.

The SAC had been requesting permission to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping for quite some time and the SAC Chairman was allowed to meet with Xi at that event, said chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News, adding that he heard that China was to enter and control until Mandalay if the SAC could not control the routes where Chinese projects are located.

" In terms of policy, China has long supported the SAC. So, China planned to make the SAC retake Lashio which the SAC had lost control of. If the SAC cannot control the route, China could enter and control until Mandalay, I heard. The SAC Chairman was not invited to China to meet, but when the two of them were in Moscow, they met during the highline. In any case, China has proved again that it stands behind the SAC." he said.

President Xi Jinping said during a meeting with the SAC Chairman on May 9 that China has always supported Myanmar's development, sovereignty, and stability and will continue to assist Myanmar in its development and peace efforts.

Xi also said Myanmar must ensure the safety of Chinese personnel, organizations, and projects in Myanmar. China-Myanmar affairs analyst Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw told CNI News that China may have been alerted to the SAC's actions as it has concerns about security issues.

" This military regime is not very reliable. China seems to warn in advance because it has known that this military council is not very reliable. Sometimes, pro-military groups such as Ma Ba Tha protest against China. China has always wanted Myanmar to be stable and peaceful. It doesn't want its investments to be hurt. Based on it, China will discuss. And then, China promised the SAC it will help Myanmar with the earthquake disaster. China is trying to mediate to cease fire. I think China may have urged the SAC to reduce airstrikes while it persuade both the SAC and opposition groups at the same time. China's ambition is always the same. It wants Myanmar to be stable and peaceful as well as develop. And it wants its Silk Road Project, a large-scale infrastructure development strategy to be successful as well." he said.

China has been moving closer to Myanmar since the political changes in Bangladesh, after Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had fled and the pro-American government led by Mohammad Yunus came to power. 

The SAC has met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang on several occasions, but this was the first time it met with President Xi Jinping, and the SAC reiterated its commitment to holding elections in December.

CNI News

14 May 2025

The SAC was less likely to accept forming the transitional government that was proposed by the 7 EAO Alliance, said political parties that have registered at the Union Election Committee. 

The SAC would continue as planned, and a government could only be properly called a transitional government only after elections were held, U Myo Set Thway, general secretary of the People's Progressive Party (PPP), told CNI News.

“It might not be as the 7 EAO Alliance demands. So the SAC might establish a transitional government within its original framework. If the SAC cannot accept it, SAC will continue with its original plan. If the SAC cannot accept to form a transitional government, it will continue with its original plan. Its commitment to hold this election is also included in its original announcement. It will go the election route. In the meantime, the interim government or the transitional government, will be formed in a way that allows it to follow its own path. So, what will happen is that 7 EAO will also demand their needs. If the SAC agrees to the request, it is likely that these peace talks will be strengthened further. But the peace process of the 7 EAO is not over yet. Even if SAC doesn't accept it, there's not much chance of it changing. If SAC can accept it, it's even better," he said.

While seeing the five point proposal by the 7 EAO Alliance

Dr. Aye Maung, chairman of the Arakan Army Front (AFP), told CNI News that the 7 EAO Alliance needs to clarify the definition of the term “transitional government” to the SAC. 

"The SAC’s six-month tenure will end on July 31, after which the SAC can delegate its powers to the Defense and Security Council. A government will emerge under the leadership of the National Defense and Security Council and under the constitution. That government could also appear to be a transitional government. Does the

7 EAO Alliance refer to that government? If that's so, according to the 2008 constitution, is the NDSC that is not the SAC going to call that government a transitional government or an interim government? It will be necessary to clarify whether the 7 EAO Alliance refers to a transitional government that is not related to the constitution. The SAC is also in a position to shape a government that can be called a transitional government, which will be formed by the National Defense and Security Council," he said. 

While seeing the NSPNC and the 7 EAO Alliance

The 7 The EAO Alliance held a meeting on April 28-29 and announced five proposals for implementation by the SAC.

The five proposals are: (1) a nationwide ceasefire by all organizations involved in the conflict, without preconditions; (2) a commitment to a federal democratic union among all stakeholders; (3) the formation of a federal democratic transition government; (4) the drafting of a federal democratic union constitution; and (5) holding elections in accordance with the federal democratic constitution.

7 The EAO Alliance includes the RCSS, the PNLO, the NMSP, the LDU, the DKBA, the KNU/KNLA-PC, the ALPR (renamed ALP), which are signatories to the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA).

CNI News

13 May 2025

If elections are held in Myanmar, what reforms the government that emerges after the elections will prioritize for the country and its people, which military and political observers are watching.

The government that emerges after the election must prioritize maintaining peace and stability in the country and must also form a national unity government, the Arakan Front Party (AFP) chairman Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News.

“The first thing that the new parliament and government should do after the election is to establish political stability. The 2008 Constitution already stipulates that our country will have a multi-party democracy. Therefore, after the election, we need a unity of parties and a goal of how to develop the country and achieve political stability. So we have to negotiate and have expectations on how to overcome the current crisis. About 4,000 people lost their lives in the Mandalay earthquake. How will we raise the necessary funds for reconstruction? We need a national unity government, which will negotiate the development of the country in Hluttaw and work together for the state and its citizens in the next five years. Only when armed conflict ends can political stability be achieved, and only when such political stability is achieved can development take place." he said.

The SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing

The election would be held in December 2025 and had received international support, and he called on the public in order to hold the election peacefully, the SAC information team leader, General Zaw Min Tun, told the media on May 10, 2025, after returning from a trip to Russia. During the trip to Russia, SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing met with international leaders and explained that a multi-party democratic general election would be held by the end of 2025, he said.

U Sai Htay Aung, chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News that the post-election government should prioritize education and health sectors for the people.

“The election will be held without fail. Once the election is over, the three branches of power will be held by three people instead of one person, and when there will be check and balance, efforts can be made pretty well for the sake of the country. The government that will come to power after the election should prioritize education and health sectors. I believe that the country is in this situation at this time because we lack education and reason. We need political stability, but we'll have to upgrade education and health sectors without the stability. The education sector needs to change its curricula. Currently, most of the curriculums are about personality cult. Love for country is disappearing. They are leaning to personality cult. If every citizen had patriotism, we wouldn't face such problems." he said.

Armed groups are trying to overthrow the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the SAC, and have announced that they will sabotage the upcoming elections that will be held by the SAC.

Major General Zaw Min Tun said he wanted the people to firmly oppose terrorism, which was the opposite of democracy.

The armed conflicts that are taking place across the country need to cease and bring about peace and stability in order to hold free and fair elections, the SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said in a message sent on the 77th Chin National Day, which fell on February 20, 2025, that

CNI Article

By- Chit Min Tun

13 May 2025

In Myanmar, on February 1, 2021, the National League for Democracy (NLD) government was overthrown by the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the Myanmar Tatmadaw declared a state of emergency. 

The reason why the state of emergency was declared was because the NLD government was trying to form a government without solving the vote list dispute in the 2020 general election, said the Myanmar Tatmadaw. 

Myanmar young people became involved in the power struggle and armed conflicts broke out in a big way nearly all over the country.

The armed conflicts have led up to instability throughout the country, security concerns, a weakening of the rule of law, restrictions on freedom of expression and movement, declines in economic, social, educational and health conditions, a scarcity of employment opportunities, rising prices, and inflation.

The worst is the disintegration of national unity among citizens, the decline in the ability to defend “Our Three Main National Causes” (Non-disintegration of the Union, Non-disintegration of national solidarity and Perpetuation of sovereignty), and the gradual erosion of the country’s sovereignty.

To rebuild these conditions, it is necessary to create (1) a stable country, (2) a reduction in armed conflicts, (3) a stable government, (4) a civilian government, (5) strengthening internal unity, (6) good relations with regional countries, and (7) good civil-military relations. However, as Myanmar is currently being run by a military-led administration that is not an elected government, there may be questions about how to rebuild them.

we can think of three possible solutions to this question: (1) a transitional government or an interim government that is acceptable to all can be formed through dialogue; (2) a government can be formed by one side that wins the current war; (3) a coalition government or an elected government can be formed through elections.

Of these three points, because the first and second are complex and difficult, they can't be successful. So, Myanmar is currently facing many of the disasters . That's why there is only the third point left to think of.

Therefore, if you ask whether everything will be okay if we hold elections to overcome the general crisis facing Myanmar, we must understand that elections are just a step towards transition and will not make everything okay and smooth. In this case, I think we need to consider two basic points: what will happen if the election cannot be held, and what will happen if the election can be held.

First, let's consider what would happen if the election were not held.

If the election were not held, (1) Myanmar would continue as it is now, (2) Myanmar could face a situation that is even worse than the current situation, (3) the three branches of power in the hands of the Myanmar Tatmadaw would remain indefinitely, and (4) the country would continue to face endless wars.

If elections are held, (1) a stable government will emerge, (2) the three branches of power that were in the hands of the Myanmar Tatmadaw will be returned to the hands of an elected government, (3) the rule of law will be strengthened, (4) the intensity of wars will decrease, (5) job opportunities will increase and the unemployment rate will gradually decrease, (6) education will become safe, (7) the hotel and tourism sector will stabilize, (8) opportunities will be available to rebuild the economy, (9) travel will become safe, and (10) the People's Military Service Law will be suspended or repealed.

In addition, (11) restrictions on working abroad will be lifted, (12) theft and robbery will decrease, (13) healthcare will improve, (14) inflation will decrease, (15) trade flows will improve, (16) peace processes will improve, (17) the fight against smuggling and zha pian will be strengthened, (18) inflation will gradually decrease, (19) the skyrocketing housing/land prices will gradually decrease, (20) car prices will gradually decrease, (21) construction and garment industries will recover, and telecommunications and internet services will gradually improve, (22) extrajudicial killings will decrease, and the number of explosions that can be seen everywhere will decrease, etc.

However, due to the damage to the parliament building because of the earthquake, there is a need to strengthen preparations for holding the Hluttaw, and there are also challenges regarding how to hold regional and state Hluttaws.

Similarly, as weapons and explosives that there were abundantly during the unrest could be used without discipline under the government that emerges after the election, could cause harm to the public. 

Furthermore, even if the election is held, it is very important that the Myanmar Tatmadaw does not repeat the 1990 election history if it does not like the election results. Therefore, some are urging that elections be held only after a political agreement on how to rebuild Myanmar is reached.

On the other hand, the National Unity Government (NUG) and some ethnic armed organizations have announced that they will sabotage the election without fail.

In any case, each citizen of Myanmar must consider what will happen if elections are held and what will happen if elections are not held, and decide which situation is better for the country.

Therefore, since you must own the situation you choose, it is very important that your choice is correct. We will have to wait and see what choice the people of Myanmar will make.

CNI News

12 May 2025

The political status of the United Wa State Army (UWSA), which is designated as a “Wa” self-administered division under the 2008 constitution, is “full sovereignty” except for not declaring independence, U Khun Sai, who is involved in the peace process, told CNI News.

The six townships of Hopan, Mong Maw, Pan Wai, Nar Phan, Matman, and Pan Kham (Pang Sang) in Shan State have been divided into two districts and designated as “Wa” self-administered divisions under the 2008 constitution.

Other ethnic armed groups (EAOs) have sought political status like the Wa, but have failed to achieve it. They only want to be designated as a special region.

"The “Wa” situation is that they just didn’t declare independence. They have everything. They have sovereignty. They have their own army. So what China is talking about is one country, two systems. Whether our country is democratic, federal or unitary, they will remain independent. They will simply not declare independence. When the “Wa” hold a ceremony, they raise both a union flag and a “Wa” flag. But the union army cannot enter their region." said U Khun Sai.

While seeing leader of the UWSA and former Chinese Special Envoy Mr. Sun Guoxiang

The Arakan Army (AA) has stated that it wants to achieve confederation status like the “Wa” as the lowest political level and its highest goal is to establish an independent territory. 
Therefore, starting in November 2023, the AA has been waging battles in Rakhine State and has been able to occupy 14 of the 17 townships in Rakhine State during the past over a year.

The “Wa” has achieved the political status it currently enjoys because of the actions it has taken to defend the country, U Thein Tun Oo, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNI News.

While seeing two leaders of the AA

“In the past, there was a border issue with Thailand, and at that time it was SURA. When we were fighting with the groups led by U Yaw Sit, who has now made peace, the “Wa” used to be part of the Myanmar military as a national defense force. That's why the Myanmar Tatmadaw had created a self-administered zone for the "Wa". The existence of the "Wa" and its place depend on it. If the AA wants a level like "Wa", we have to ask what the AA has done for the defense of the country. That's why when the constitution was drafted, the "Wa" self-administered division was included. If the AA wants to achieve a status beyond “Wa”, it first needs to answer the question of what the AA did to achieve “Wa” status. If AA can't answer that, I think they will have to try to stay in their current position." he said.

In Myanmar, the “Wa” Self-Administered Division, the Kokang Self-Administered Zone, the Danu Self-Administered Zone, the Palaung Self-Administered Zone, the Pa-O Self-Administered Zone, and the Naga Self-Administered Zone have been designated.

CNI News

12 May 2025

the current situation in Myanmar, which is on the path to building a federal democracy, is a "form of armed federalism," and that the combination of armed forces and federalism is very dangerous, the People's Party (PP) Chairman U Ko Ko Gyi told CNI News. 

He also said that there can be no federalism without democracy, and therefore, democracy and federalism need to go hand in hand.

“The words demanded by the ethnic groups in the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) are a union based on democracy and federalism, and then it is not a democratic federalism, but a federal democracy - they change the words back and forth. So the current situation is, in other words, it has become a Military Federal. To tell you the truth, if you can capture more territories, you can have it your own way in the territories. Democracy has disappeared kind of. In fact, there can be no federalism without democracy. So, if someone who can occupy territories without a federation does whatever they want, the essence of the federation will be destroyed. That is why democracy and federalism need to go hand in hand with equality. The current situation is that democracy has almost disappeared. So I see the situation where weapons and the federalism are intertwined as very dangerous." said U Ko Ko Gyi.

U Ko Ko Gyi and the SAC Chairman

Nine armed resistance groups, including the Karen National Union (KNU), Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), and Chin National Front (CNF), announced on September 19, 2024, that they had reached a four-point agreement to move from a state-strengthening approach to a union-strengthening approach to build a federal democratic union in the future.

These armed groups are engaged in fierce fighting with the Myanmar Tatmadaw and are attempting to overthrow the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the SAC.
The SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said on September 10, 2023, that a regionally-based federal system is the most suitable for implementing democracy and federal governance.

Furthermore, the SAC chairman said that in the peace talks, ethnic armed groups are only demanding ethnic issues and are not demanding regional issues. 

They should not be organizations that represent a group of people but rather organizations that represent the region. Ethnic armed groups are trying to gain their own territories and the Myanmar Tatmadaw will continue to wage war, said the SAC Chairman.

While seeing those who attended the 8th Anniversary Celebration of the NCA

U Sai Htay Aung, chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News that as long as there are armed groups, there can be neither federalism nor democracy; and then, the country will stay away from federalism.

“We should only keep armed groups within the framework of the law. As long as there are armed groups without rules, we cannot have federalism or democracy. In a federal system, states have the right to govern themselves, and then they will have the right to speak by connecting with the central government. You will have many of the powers of the state. "If armed groups are forcing to do this, then we'll be far from federalism. As long as they are armed, we will remain under a dictatorship." he said.

Federalism is a solution, so they need to work towards it. However, if they go beyond that, the union will collapse, and the impact could be problematic not only for domestic affairs but also for the entire Southeast Asia, military and political analysts have considered. In Myanmar, efforts are being made to build a federal and democratically based union.

Some ethnic armed groups are even expressing goals such as confederation and independence. In Myanmar, the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) have achieved a confederation status that goes beyond federalism through armed resistance.

Similarly, the Kokang National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) has regained Special Region (1), which it lost in 2009, through armed resistance. Then, armed groups such as the TNLA, AA, KIA, and CNF are also trying to achieve their own system of governance through armed resistance.

CNI News
11 May 2025

Chinese President Xi Jinping said he will continue to assist Myanmar's peace efforts.

He said the above during his meeting with the SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in Moscow, Russia, on May 9, 2025.

“China has always supported Myanmar’s development, sovereignty, and stability and will continue to assist Myanmar in its development and peace efforts.” said Xi Jinping.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the SAC, said that he thanked China for standing with Myanmar on regional and international fronts.

He said, “Myanmar is making preparations to successfully hold a multi-party democratic election by the end of this year, and is also planning to invite international observation teams during the election.”

The SAC Chairman then said that Myanmar supports China's efforts to build a community of shared future with neighboring countries and to lay down new foundations for cooperation with neighboring countries.

Fierce fighting is ongoing across Myanmar between ethnic armed organizations (EAOs)/the People's Defense Forces (PDF), and the Myanmar Tatmadaw.

During these clashes, the AA-TNLA-MNDAA jointly launched Operation 1027 in northern Shan State on October 27, 2023. During that operation, the AA-TNLA-MNDAA captured almost the entire northern region of Shan State and the Northeast Command.

On the other hand, in collaboration with the PDF, the KIA is fighting ‌against the Myanmar Tatmadaw in Kachin State and Sagaing Region to capture towns. Therefore, China is trying to mediate between the KIA-AA-TNLA-MNDAA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw to negotiate peace.

Currently, a peace agreement has been reached between the MNDAA and the Myanmar Army, thanks to Chinese mediation, and talks are ongoing between the TNLA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw, and between the KIA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw.