CNI News

18 September 2025

It is reported that the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the People’s Defense Force (PDF) have jointly launched an offensive since September 15, 2025, aiming to capture Banmauk town, located at the gateway between the northern Sagaing Region and Kachin State.

KIA–PDF forces attacked in the direction of the Aung Kanbaw Thein Hotel in Banmauk, resulting in clashes with the Shan Nationalities Army (SNA).

“There is fighting going on in Banmauk. KIA and PDF are attacking together. Rumors say the KIA troops have orders to capture Banmauk within three days; if not, then within a week. Since Banmauk is a strategic point for reinforcements between Indaw and Bhamo, the Tatmadaw is sending troops there. Maybe that’s why they are trying to cut the route. It’s also an entry point into Kachin State, I think.”, said a local resident of Banmauk.

Map showing areas under KIA–PDF control and current battles for town capture.

Banmauk town, located at the border of upper Sagaing Region and Kachin State, is militarily strategic. It is also a market hub for illegal logging. Similarly, the town plays an important role in Mandalay–Banmauk–Kachin State trade.

Alongside the offensive on Banmauk, the Indaw PDF announced on September 15 that it had closed the Indaw–Banmauk strategic road and all other routes indefinitely.

Currently, KIA–PDF forces have already captured nearby Indaw town on April 7, 2025, and they are also attacking Bhamo town.

SNA troops

If KIA–PDF successfully captures Banmauk, observers note that they are likely to move on to seize Homalin town.

At present, KIA–PDF joint forces control areas around Banmauk and Homalin, including Indaw, Pinlebu, Phaungbyin, and Shwe Pyi Aye. If they also secure Banmauk and Homalin, they could gain control over the central and northern Sagaing Region.

After that, they would also be in a position to dominate the Myanmar–India border areas.

CNI Articel

18 September 2025

India and Myanmar share a border of over 1,000 kilometers. In addition, the peoples living in India’s northeastern region and the peoples in Myanmar are anthropologically similar in appearance.

India’s Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Mizoram, and Manipur states border Myanmar’s Sagaing Region, Kachin State, and Chin State.

Alongside this geographic proximity, India believes that armed groups waging insurgency against it—such as the Meitei, Mizo, Kuki, and Naga—are based and operating in areas inside Myanmar adjacent to the border.

The presence of these insurgent groups, combined with instability in Myanmar’s border regions, has become an obstacle to India’s northeastern development plans and its “Act East Policy.” Therefore, India is strongly intent on building greater peace and stability in its northeast as well as along the India–Myanmar border.

Because of instability along the India–Myanmar border, India has faced the following situations:

The suspension of the India–Myanmar Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project.

The failure to implement the $4 billion India–Myanmar–Thailand Trilateral Highway Project.

The halting of border trade between the two countries.

The necessity of sheltering Myanmar refugees in India.

The suspension of the India–Myanmar–China Ledo Road renovation project.

India’s inability to pursue its resource extraction goals inside Myanmar.

Weakening of the rule of law in India’s northeastern region.

Delays in the development of India’s northeastern region.

For these reasons, India considers stability and the rule of law inside Myanmar and along the shared border essential, and it now appears to be contemplating deeper involvement in Myanmar’s current political situation than before.

The reason for saying this is that, on August 31, 2025, in Tianjin, China, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the State Security and Peace Commission Chairman, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, met and discussed (1) enhancing military security and defense cooperation between the two countries’ armed forces, and (2) cooperation on mineral extraction. These two points were publicly announced by Prime Minister Modi himself, while there may also be deeper, undisclosed matters behind the scenes.

Following this, a delegation of five officials led by Lieutenant General Ko Ko Oo, Commander of the Bureau of Special Operations (1), visited India and, on September 10, 2025, met with Indian Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi in New Delhi.

During this meeting, they mainly discussed strengthening defense cooperation, expanding military relations, and reaffirming mutual commitments to regional peace and stability, according to the Indian Army.

Similarly, on September 12, 2025, Lieutenant General Ko Ko Oo met with Lieutenant General R.C. Tiwari, Commander of India’s Eastern Command, and other senior officials.

During this meeting, the Indian Army presented plans to provide the Myanmar Tatmadaw with modern IT lab equipment to improve digital training capabilities and information management systems. This presentation highlighted India’s support for upgrading Myanmar’s defense infrastructure and for strengthening bilateral cooperation through technology.

Lieutenant General Ko Ko Oo is the Commander of the Bureau of Special Operations (1), which oversees the Northwestern Command (Sagaing Region, northern Magway Region, and Chin State), the Northern Command (Kachin State), and the Central Command (Mandalay Region and southern Magway Region).

Thus, the Bureau of Special Operations (1) covers Kachin State, Sagaing Region, Magway Region, Chin State, and Mandalay Region.

India borders precisely these areas—Sagaing, Chin, and Kachin—where Naga and Meitei insurgent groups hostile to India are based.

Following this, on September 13, 2025, Prime Minister Modi visited Aizawl, Mizoram, a state bordering Myanmar and affected by instability, where he met with the state chief minister and local residents, delivering speeches.

Likewise, on September 14, 2025, Modi visited Imphal, Manipur State, where he also met with the chief minister and residents and gave speeches.

These developments show that India–Myanmar relations have been shifting since August. Whether these changes will bring stability and rule of law along the India–Myanmar border remains to be seen.

It will also be important to watch whether the two key points mentioned above can be realized and whether the eight challenges listed earlier can be addressed with positive outcomes.

In any case, if India and Myanmar’s governments and militaries cooperate to build stability and the rule of law along the border, there could be significant impacts on groups such as the Arakan Army (AA), Chin armed organizations (CNF, CNDF, Chin PDFs), Naga, Meitei, Mizo, Kuki, as well as Sagaing-based PDFs and the Kachin Independence Army’s military support in Sagaing.

For this reason, India–Myanmar relations are of great interest, and it remains to be seen how they will develop.

CNI News

17 September 2025

Local residents reported that the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the People’s Defense Force (PDF) jointly launched an offensive attack on Banmauk town, Sagaing Region, at around 10 a.m. on September 15, 2025.

The joint KIA–PDF forces attacked towards the Aung Kanba Thein Hotel area in Banmauk, leading to clashes with the Shan Nationalities Army (SNA).

According to local sources, around 80 joint KIA–PDF troops are attacking an SNA-controlled security post.

SNA troops

At the same time, the Indaw PDF announced on September 15 that it had indefinitely closed the Indaw–Bhamauk strategic road along with all other routes in the area.

The KIA–PDF have been attempting for over two years to capture Indaw and Banmauk, gateways into Kachin State. They successfully seized Indaw on April 7, 2025, and have since continued their efforts to take control of Banmauk.

CNI News

17 September 2025

The Indaw–Banmauk strategic road in Sagaing Region has been closed indefinitely starting from September 15, 2025, according to an announcement by the Indaw PDF.

It was also announced that all other routes in the area have likewise been shut down with no time limit set for reopening.

Currently, joint KIA–PDF forces are engaged in clashes with the Shan Nationalities Army (SNA) in Banmauk Township.

Similarly, battles are ongoing in Bhamo between Myanmar Tatmadaw and the joint KIA–PDF forces.

The KIA–PDF have been withdrawing from the areas and bases they previously controlled in Bhamo, as the Myanmar Tatmadaw may launch counterattacks on Indaw. Preparations are therefore being made in advance.

At the same time, the KIA–PDF joint forces have been striving for more than two years to seize control of Banmauk Township, but have not yet succeeded.

Moreover, as the military situation in Bhamo looks unfavorable, the KIA–PDF are attempting to boost the morale of their troops by seeking to take control of certain territories inside Banmauk Township, according to local sources.

CNI News

17 September 2025

After the meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chairman of the National Security and Peace Commission, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, military and political analysts pointed out that India may start monitoring and controlling Chin revolutionary armed groups.

They also noted that it remains to be seen how India might get involved in Myanmar’s security sector.

According to Colonel Khun Okkar, Chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), unlike China, India is unlikely to provide Myanmar’s military with direct military support, but it could monitor and control Chin revolutionary groups.

“It’s hard to predict exactly. But I think the Myanmar Tatmadaw wants to balance relations—being on good terms with both China and India. However, India is not like China, which provides arms to the Myanmar Tatmadaw. China even sends representatives as ceasefire monitors in Lashio. India doesn’t seem to follow that approach. Still, India might start monitoring and exercising some control over the activities of Chin revolutionary groups.”, he told CNI News.

While Chin Brotherhood (CB) was meeting with Lt-Gen Gun Maw, a leader of the KIA

During Senior General Min Aung Hlaing’s trip to China, he met Indian Prime Minister Modi and reached an agreement on enhancing security cooperation.

Later, on September 10, 2025, Myanmar Tatmadaw’s Commander of the Bureau of Special Operations (1), Lt-Gen Ko Ko Oo, met with Indian Chief of Army Staff, General Upendra Dwivedi, in New Delhi.

The Indian Army announced that the meeting focused on expanding defense cooperation, military-to-military relations, and commitments to regional peace and stability.

Lt-Gen Ko Ko Oo oversees the Northwest Command (Sagaing Region, northern Magway Region, Chin State), Northern Command (Kachin State), and Central Command (Mandalay Region, southern Magway Region).

Thus, Bureau of Special Operations (1) covers Kachin State, Sagaing Region, Magway Region, Chin State, and Mandalay Region.

Chin Brotherhood (CB) meeting with NUG leaders

India shares borders with Sagaing, Chin, and Kachin, where Naga and Meitei armed groups attacking India have bases and operate from.

Similarly, in Chin State, which borders India, more than 10 Chin armed groups fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw are based. Ongoing clashes there have forced displaced civilians to cross into India for refuge.

Dr. Aung Myo, a Myanmar political analyst, told CNI News that the governments of some Indian border states have been providing support to certain Chin armed groups, and this issue was likely discussed between the two governments to address more effectively.

“The Indian Army and border security forces have good relations with the Myanmar Tatmadaw. But some Indian state governments—especially Mizoram—sympathize with Chin National Army (CNA) and provide support. Since they are ethnically related, it’s hard to block that entirely. So, both countries likely discussed this matter to take more effective and concrete measures.”

Before these India-Myanmar meetings, during July and August 2025, Chin Brotherhood (CB), Karenni National Defense Force (KNDF), Yaw Army, Myingyan PDF, NUG ministers, Naga armed groups, and other Spring Revolution forces held talks with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) at its headquarters.

CNI News

16 September 2025

Dr. Aye Maung, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), told CNI News that he will contest as a candidate for the Pyithu Hluttaw from Sittwe, Rakhine State, in the upcoming elections planned to be held in Myanmar.

On September 11, 2025, the National Defense and Security Council announced that Dr. Aye Maung had been granted a full pardon through a temporary presidential order, with no remaining penalties. As a result, he became eligible to run in the elections. Following that, he confirmed that he would stand for election in Sittwe Township under the AFP ticket.

“My target is the Pyithu Hluttaw, of course. I’m aiming for the Sittwe district under the FPTP (First-Past-The-Post) system. AFP will compete in all districts under the FPTP system. We intend to contest the coming election. We are still gathering people. In some townships, families face difficulties relocating. There are people ready to contest, but when consulting with their families, some withdraw while others move forward. It’s still unstable. For now, there are 64 candidates from Rakhine. Since there are 17 townships, I can’t say exactly how many constituencies are filled yet. At the moment, we can only say it’s like passing an exam preliminarily.”, he said.

While seeing Dr. Aye Maung

The Union Election Commission announced on May 2, 2023, that the Arakan Front Party (AFP), which has opened its headquarters in Rakhine State, was officially registered under Article 9 of the Political Parties Registration Law.

Dr. Aye Maung stated that if elected, the party would work to secure ethnic rights in line with the Constitution.

“Our main focus is peace. For nearly 80 years, we have been trapped in this vicious cycle of conflict, and it’s time to break free. Civil war should be resolved through political dialogue, but even that time has already passed. So, peace and stability are what the people of Myanmar deserve. That’s the treasure we must prioritize. We will take part fully in that effort. Based on constitutional rights, we must ensure that ethnic peoples gain their rightful entitlements. Politically, we must work toward reconciliation and toward ending armed conflicts.”, he said.

While seeing Dr. Aye Maung

At present, efforts are being made to establish a federal democratic union. However, some ethnic armed groups have declared objectives reaching as far as confederation or independence.

The Union Election Commission (UEC) has announced that the first phase of Myanmar’s general elections will be held on December 28, 2025. Submission of candidate nomination forms will be accepted and scrutinized from September 18 to October 4, 2025, according to the UEC.

CNI News

16 September 2025

The election is a matter only for political parties and has nothing to do with armed organizations, said Colonel Khun Okkar, Chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), speaking to CNI News.

He added that some armed groups became extreme in their opposition to the election.

“Elections are not related to armed groups. Elections are only related to political parties. It is the political parties that will contest. In Kachin as well, there are Kachin political parties. If they can participate in their own way, then this could become a step towards reform. But KNU’s Brigade 6 said it will oppose the election. They will oppose those who participate, and they will oppose the political parties competing as well. That’s an example of how opposition to the election could become extreme.”, he said.

For the upcoming first phase of the election on December 28, groups such as the KNU, AA, KNPP, Naga PDF, and other armed revolutionary organizations have already declared their rejection and opposition. The NUG has also urged opposition.

Political parties and the UEC

The Karen National Union (KNU), which holds a very strong opposition stance on the election, was designated as an illegal association and a terrorist organization on August 28, 2025.

However, some armed groups have not made public statements that they will oppose or disrupt elections led by Acting President Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.

These groups include the KIA, RCSS, SSPP, and TNLA. Up to this point, they have not openly opposed the elections. 
The KIA has only said it will not allow ballot boxes in areas under its control, while the TNLA stated in August that it has not yet commented on whether parties will be allowed to campaign or elections will be conducted in TNLA-controlled territories.

Observers in the peace process told CNI News that by not explicitly opposing the elections, these groups may be hoping that, once parliament is formed, they could have opportunities to push for the laws they want.

The NUG

“Elections are for political parties. Armed groups (EAOs or EROs) have no part in that. But on the other hand, they see that if elections are held, there will be MPs in parliament. Once there are MPs, laws will be enacted. With laws being made, they will need to maintain proper relations with everyone to push for the laws they want. Why? Because they’ve had experience before. Since 2010, when elections were held, they remained quiet, but later when laws were passed in parliament, some laws contradicted their local laws in their areas. Since their laws were only local, the national laws overruled them. So, this time, they may stay neutral, and if parliament is formed, they will be able to engage and argue for the laws they want.” said U Khun Sai who is involved in the peace process, told CNI News.

Currently, the Myanmar Tatmadaw has announced that the first phase of elections will be held in 102 townships, and offensives are ongoing to recapture areas they have lost.

CNI News

16 September 2025

The dissolution of political parties that were established to resolve national issues through political means and planned to contest in elections may cause people to lose faith in politics and turn toward armed movements, said Daw Sandar Min, Vice Chair of the National Democratic Force Party (NDF).

Daw Sandar Min, who had left the National League for Democracy (NLD) and later joined the National Democratic Force (NDF), said this while noting that although elections are being prepared in Myanmar, the Union Election Commission (UEC) announced on September 9, 2025, that four parties including the NDF had been dissolved.

She stated that, while the government is inviting armed groups—those who are holding weapons and committing acts of violence—to take part in elections and the political process, it has simultaneously dissolved political parties that are willing to participate peacefully through elections. This, she warned, risks discouraging people from the political path.

NDF leaders U Htet Aung Kyaw, Daw Sandar Min, and Dr. Myo Set Thwe.

“At a time when the state is inviting even those who are committing violent acts with weapons to engage in the political process, we are people who want to work together with the state and resolve matters only through political means. Such people should be genuinely invited. If you have the capacity to contribute to the country, that goodwill should be recognized. But instead of welcoming, dissolving parties like ours undermines the very invitations being made by the state. Therefore, it must be carefully considered. Dissolving four parties before a major election cannot be said to have no consequences. Will the public’s trust increase? Will the election itself remain unaffected? These are questions that must be seriously considered. Actions should not be based merely on a desire to win.”, she said.

The NDF party was led by Daw Sandar Min, U Htet Aung Kyaw, and Dr. Myo Set Thwe, and had been officially registered to contest nationwide. Many observers viewed the NDF as the main rival to the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) in the upcoming elections.

Alongside the NDF, the Democratic Party of National Politics (DNP), the Women’s Party (Mon), and the Union Farmers and Workers Force Party were also dissolved by the UEC for failing to meet office requirements.

Dissolved and remaining parties.

Daw Sandar Min emphasized that removing those who firmly believe in resolving political problems through political means could unintentionally push people toward terrorist methods:

“We entered politics with goodwill for the country. I personally have been involved in politics since the age of 18. I have also been imprisoned and endured many hardships, but I never fled abroad—I stayed in the country. I always believed that political issues must be resolved through political means, in a way that does not harm the people, and with genuine goodwill. Even now, at over 50 years old, that belief remains unchanged. If people like us, who still hold this conviction, are not accepted, then minds may shift toward violent methods. Still, despite our party’s dissolution, our conviction that political issues must be solved politically will not change.”

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing previously stated that while the government is extending invitations for political dialogue, it will not accommodate armed groups’ demands in every way.

Meanwhile, some groups believe that Myanmar’s political deadlock cannot be resolved through elections and insist that only armed struggle can bring about a Federal Democratic Union. These forces continue to oppose the planned elections and have warned they will take decisive action against parties and individuals participating in elections.

The Union Election Commission has announced that Phase (1) of the elections will be held in 102 townships on December 28, 2025.

CNI News

15 September 2025

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, said that it is necessary to study the riots in Nepal and draw lessons for Myanmar.

He made the remarks at a coordination meeting between the commission and the Union government on September 12, 2025.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said, "When we study the recent riots in Nepal, we learn that they started with the government's attempt to register social media accounts. However, we also learned that some powerful countries are involved behind the scenes of these riots. We need to study these riots and draw lessons for our country."

In Nepal, students and young people protested this month due to dissatisfaction with the closure of social media and the growing corruption of the government.

They then raided government offices, parliaments, the residences of government leaders, members of parliament, and politicians, and destroyed the shops of businesspeople.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing

During these events, riots broke out between the security forces and Generation Z, leading to the resignation of the Nepali prime minister and most of the cabinet members. The Nepali army and Generation Z are currently negotiating to form an interim government.

In Myanmar, on February 1, 2021, the Myanmar Tatmadaw declared a state of emergency and took control of the country, citing the National League for Democracy (NLD) government's attempt to form a government without resolving the dispute over the 2020 general election voter list.

Since then, the Myanmar Tatmadaw has restricted and banned the use of social media, which continues to this day.

The current leader of the Myanmar military, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission and Security, has announced that Myanmar is under control and that the first phase of the general election will be held on December 28, 2025, in 102 townships.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has also announced that the Tatmadaw will transfer power to the winning political party after the election and will return to performing only defense duties.