US tariff hike could hurt Myanmar's garment industry

CNI News

15 April 2025

Myanmar's exports to the US could suffer, especially those from the garment industry, as the US President Donald Trump imposes a 44 percent tariff on imports from Myanmar, economists told CNI News. 
On April 2, US President Donald Trump increased tariffs on goods imported into the US from various countries around the world, including Myanmar.

The US has increased tariffs as existing investments in Myanmar are struggling due to the earthquake. 

It was difficult to expect new investments, Ko Zaw Min Naing, an agricultural and economic advisor, told CNI News.

"Myanmar is included in the countries that Trump has increased trade tariffs on. I hear that the garment industry is going to suffer. Some brands are sewn in Myanmar. They have to be sewn and then shipped back. So if the tariffs are increased, the viability of garment factories here is going to be a problem. Because of the Trade War, the existing investments in Myanmar are struggling. It's not easy to get more investment. When the SAC chairman went to Russia and Belarus, they signed agreements. I can't say whether investments in the energy sector will enter Myanmar. It's very difficult to expect other investments. It may be because of the trade war. Another thing is related to infrastructure. Even in areas that were hit by the earthquake, including Mandalay, electricity has not been restored to normal. In a situation like this, it is less likely that foreign investments will enter the country. Because charges are too high due to the trade war, existing investments are struggling." said Ko Zaw Min Naing.

While seeing the port where goods are released

The White House press conference said that the tax increase is an effort to ensure fairness in trade with the United States and to prevent excessive profits. 

The United States has increased tariffs on more than 180 countries, including Myanmar, which is the highest tariff increase in decades, according to international reports.

Banking expert U Htay Aung Kyi told CNI News that the increase in tariffs will force US importers to choose countries with lower tariffs, depending on the product.

While rescuing those affected by the earthquake in Myanmar

"Tariffs are money that American importers have to pay, so they will raise prices. After all, it will be the American consumers who suffer. American importers will choose the products from the countries with lower import tariffs." he said.

The World Bank's Myanmar Economic Monitor report, released on December 11, predicted that the Myanmar economy would shrink by another 1 percent by March 2025 due to the spread of armed conflicts, natural disasters, and shortages of basic goods. However, the report does not take into account the impact on the country's economy from the damage caused by the recent earthquake.

Earthquake disaster could reduce tourism in Myanmar

CNI News

12 April 2025

The earthquake that struck Myanmar on March 28, 2025, could reduce domestic and international tourism, tour operators told CNI News. 

Mandalay, Pyin Oo Lwin, and Inle Lake are popular tourist destinations, but as the earthquake centered around Mandalay and Sagaing, these areas felt the pinch of the earthquake badly.

Therefore, some tourists may only visit Bagan and beach areas during the Thingyan holiday, a tourism entrepreneur told CNI.

"The current tourists mainly go to Bagan, Mandalay, and Inle Lake. Bagan is okay. Mandalay is badly damaged. In Inle Lake, you can only see three places. Hundreds of must-see places are all destroyed. The time to repair will take at least 6 months to 1 year because the rescue operations are still ongoing. Recovery and reconstruction will also take time. Donors will also be needed. Some people may go to beach areas during Thingyan, I think. Others may go to Bagan. They all can't go to Mandalay." he said.

Compared to the number of foreign tourists who entered the country in 2024, it is not easy to reach 1 million in 2025. 

While seeing beachgoers

The Ministry of Hotels and Tourism announced on April 3 that it has temporarily suspended the application of visitor visas for foreigners who will visit Myanmar.

Online applications for visitor visas have been suspended, and applications can be made in person at embassies. 

A travel agent told CNI that it could be convenient to apply for a visitor visa at the embassy.

" If people from the countries with Myanmar Embassies apply for visit visas at the embassy, it is convenient. Some foreigners want to come to Myanmar to study the situation. Because nothing happened to Bagan, they want to study it. But they are not from western countries. There are people from Greece, Spain, Mexico and Argentina who want to come to Myanmar. But two package tours were cancelled in April. So, it would be convenient if visa on arrival was allowed." he said.

he earthquake that struck Myanmar on March 28 has left 3,649 people dead, 5,018 injured, and 145 missing as of April 9, 2025, according to Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Htun, leader of the SAC Information Team.

In addition, roads, bridges, communication networks, homes, religious buildings, schools, government offices, staff housing, and hotels were destroyed.

CNI News

11 April 2025

The international community's provision of humanitarian assistance to earthquake-affected people in Myanmar does not imply political recognition of the SAC government, Colonel Khun Okkar, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), which signed the NCA, told CNI News. 

He said that the international aid is within the framework of humanitarian assistance and does not imply any legitimacy or political recognition for the SAC government.

“Despite political opposition, the earthquake has become a humanitarian issue, and due to the earthquake, when citizens suffer casualties and damage, which But has necessitated international assistance. But it doesn't imply political recognition and legitimacy of the SAC, I think. There are countries that said their aids were not tantamount of the political recommendation as a pre-condition." said Col. Khun Okkar.

Experts on international diplomacy have pointed out that efforts should be made to gain political legitimacy from international aid for the earthquake, and that the SAC should try to open international diplomatic channels. 

While the SAC Chairman was observing the Indian medical team providing healthcare to Myanmar earthquake victims

Myanmar had planned to hold a general election in December 2025 or January 2026, SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said at a joint press conference with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on March 7, 2025.

Furthermore, the Union Election Commission (UEC) announced on April 8, 2025 that political parties that will contest the upcoming elections must apply for political party registration by May 9. 

If elections were not held, the international community might consider that the country would continue to suffer because the SAC government would continue to rule the country, U Sai Htay Aung, chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) National Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News.

While seeing the Union Election Commission and political parties

" Opposition against the SAC is their side. Rather than that the SAC tries to win legitimacy, the nature created kind of. When a powerful earthquake struck Myanmar, there were some recognition pf the Tatmadaw. Powerful countries may consider if elections were not held, because the SAC would continue to rule the country, the Myanmar would continue to get into trouble. But if elections were held, we could discuss and negotiate with the government that would come to power." he said.

The head of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), Tom Fletcher, said during a meeting with SAC Foreign Minister U Than Swe on April 6, 2025 that international pledges of $93 million have been received to help the Myanmar earthquake-affected people.

Similarly, the United States has announced $9 million in aid for earthquake victims in Myanmar, while the Quad, which includes the United States, Japan, Australia, and India, has pledged $20 million for the Myanmar earthquake. They point out that holding elections in 2025 will not be easy, as Myanmar currently has earthquake and war recovery efforts to carry out, as well as efforts to recover from the economic downturn.

CNI Article

11 April 2025

In Myanmar where there is no civilian or elected government, with unstable politics armed battles are taking place throughout the country and the number of IDPs has been over three million. 

Due to battles, homes, religious buildings and hotels are being destroyed while the rule of law and stability are also very weak.

Moreover, with the loss of free movement between regions, socio-economic conditions are also declining along with the decline in trade. Myanmar, which is facing such general crises, has been hit again by natural disasters. Rakhine State suffered Cyclone Mocha in 2023 and the people there felt the pinch of flood in 2024 before the reconstruction was finished.

On the evening of April 8, leader of the Information Team, Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun, said that a 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck Myanmar on March 28, 2025, killing 3,645 people, injuring 5,017, and leaving 148 missing. (The numbers may continue to grow.) Similarly, roads, bridges, homes, hotels, religious buildings, telecommunications networks, government office buildings, and government housing were destroyed.

The earthquake shook central Myanmar, badly affecting Mandalay, Myanmar's second economic capital, and Naypyidaw, the administrative capital, which both of cities are de-conflict zone. Therefore, UN Secretary-General Guterres has said that between 17 million and 20 million people in Myanmar could be in need of humanitarian assistance due to the earthquake, with more than 9 million people in Mandalay, Sagaing and Naypyidaw, which were the hardest hit by the earthquake, in need of humanitarian assistance.

In any case, the earthquake may cause (1) further economic decline, (2) more unemployment, (3) more psychological distress, (4) weaker social and health services, (5) more small and medium-sized enterprises to cease operations, (6) more hotel and tourism sectors to decline, (7) more people in need of assistance (refugees), (8) more looting, and (9) more deterioration of the rule of law.

To overcome these situations, (1) earthquake relief and rehabilitation efforts will need to be strengthened, (2) the rule of law and stability will need to be strengthened, (3) battles will need to be reduced, (4) international assistance will need to be obtained, (5) regional people will need to unite and support each other, (6) commodity prices will need to be stabilized, and (7) roads, bridges, and communication networks will need to be restored as soon as possible.

In addition, (8) the government mechanisms will need to be restored as soon as possible; (9) infrastructure will need to be rebuilt as soon as possible; (10) electricity will need to be restored in most areas; (11) assistance will be needed to help small and medium-sized enterprises recover; (12) social services and health services will need to be restored; (13) an economic development strategy will need to be in place; and (14) international investment will need to be brought in.

If these conditions cannot be established, the country may struggle with economic decline and higher unemployment rate amid war, earthquakes, floods, and storms.

It is very difficult to hold elections under such circumstances. On the other hand, efforts are being made to hold elections as a way to resolve the general crisis.

However, experts said that holding elections amid the earthquake and war crises is very difficult.

Because, from a justice and humanitarian perspective, the Myanmar people are facing all sorts of disasters, they point out.

In any case, if elections are held without fail, there will be no elections and representatives respected by the public and the international community. Political parties and those who want to be members of the Hluttaw in Myanmar are currently isolated from the public after the earthquake.

Especially in the general crisis facing the public, political parties and those who want to be members of the Hluttaw only want to get the public's votes, but the public lacks the confidence to vote.

In a country without a civilian or elected government and facing battles, economic decline and various disasters like Myanmar, it will be very dificult, pointed out experts.

However, experts point out that in a country that has been destabilized by various disasters and wars, elections can be held if (1) the economy is stable, (2) disaster-affected and those in need of assistance can be restored, (3) infrastructure (government offices, roads and bridges, polling stations, health and education facilities, telecommunications networks, parliament) can be rebuilt, (4) the areas where the elections will be held are safe and stable, and (5) the international community and the public believe that the elections are necessary.

Haiti was hit by a 7.1 magnitude earthquake in 2010, and reconstruction efforts are still ongoing (not yet finished). The following aspects are often considered as the main aspects in reconstruction efforts in earthquake-affected countries.

(1) Rebuilding infrastructure

 Reconstruction of houses, hospitals, schools, roads, bridges, and communication networks.
 Projects to provide access to clean water and electricity.

(2) Social rehabilitation

 Providing psychological support and treatment.
 Assistance for the homeless.
 Protection of children and the vulnerable.

(3) Working to revive the economy

 Creating employment opportunities.
 Supporting small and medium-sized enterprises.
 Rehabilitating agriculture and fishing.

(4) Disaster management

 Prepare for future disasters.
 Build disaster warning systems.
 Improve emergency response systems.

Myanmar currently needs to undertake earthquake recovery and build sustainable development. These two processes are not easy to carry out without international assistance.

So, how can the earthquake disaster and the expectation of holding elections come about? What would happen to the economy and social services of a country without a civilian government (or elected government)? What could happen to the rule of law and stability facing challenges?

What would happen if elections were held amid similar crises? If a government is formed after elections are held, will the government that will come to power be able to address the general crisis in Myanmar? What will happen to Myanmar if elections cannot be held due to the ongoing crisis?

CNI News

10 April 2025

There are questions among the people whether revolutionary forces have captured towns or townships. EAOs and PDFs have controlled 144 townships and captured 95 townships, announced the National Unity Government on January 4, 2025.

The territories captured by the revolutionary forces were only towns and they have captured only about 30 townships, chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) National Development Party (TNDP) told CNI News.

" Khampat town is included in Tamu Township. It doesn't represent the township. Revolutionary forces have captured Myohla Town in Shwegu Township. There are only over 100 households in Myohla. The SAC's administrative powers still apply to Shwe Ku. If elections were held in Shwegu, it would represent the township. And Kan Pite Tee Town is included in Waingmaw Township. So, that they have captured are not over 90 townships, but small towns. If fact,the townships that they have captured only over 10. Taking into account of the townships from Rakhine State, they have captured only about 30 townships." he said.

While seeing the Northern Alliance (TNLA, AA, MNDAA)

The SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said at a joint press conference with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on March 7, 2025, that Myanmar had planned to hold a general election in December 2025 or January 2026.

However, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said that if elections were to be held, territories needed to be stable and peaceful. Without stability, elections could not be held, nor could voter registration or campaigning be carried out. Therefore, it was essential to prioritize security and stability.

National Democratic Force Party (NDF) Vice Chairman U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI that larger constituencies should be set when election were held so that those who had avoided battles could vote as well.

" I think that's why the SAC Chairman said that elections will be held separately, first in the places where we can hold them, and then SAC could attack and take over the townships that are currently captured. However, larger constituencies should be designated so that more widespread elections can be held. If larger constituencies are designated after the PR system is used, IDPs who fled the townships controlled by the enemies can vote as well. By doing so, there may be an increase in the number of representatives." he said.

While seeing the KIA-PDF joint forces

The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) has controlled Namkham, Nansang, Mantong, Mong Ngor, Monglon, Kyaukme, Naung Cho, Thibaw, Kutkai, Namtu, and Mogok, Momeik, and Mabein in northern Shan State during Operation 1027.

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) has controlled the Northeast Military Command including Lashio, Theinni, Phaungsai, Kon Kyan, Laukkai, Chin Shwe Haw, and Mong Ko during Operation 1027.

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) controls the following towns in Kachin State: Somprabum, Ingyanyan, Sadon, Chipwe, Sawlaw, Phimaw, Panwa, Dodphownyan, Sinbo, Myo Hla, Mansi, Kan Pite Tee, Momauk, and Lweje,the border trading town.

Similarly, the Arakan Army (AA) controls Buthidaung, Maungdaw, Rathedaung, Kyauktaw, Ponnagyun, Minbya, Myebon, Ann, Pauktaw, Taung Goat, Manaung, Thandwe, Gwa, Mrauk-U in Rakhine State, and Paletwa in Chin State.

In addition, the KIA-PDF also controls the towns of Shwe Pyi Aye, Pinlebu, Kham Pat, and Inndaw in Sagaing Region.

CNI News

10 April 2025

The aftermath of the powerful earthquake that struck Myanmar could lead to higher unemployment rate in 2025, economists told CNI News. 

The earthquake damaged most of the places in Mandalay, second biggest economic city of Myanmar and as the reconstruction of the city could take a long time, the rate of unemployment could increase, Ko Zaw Min Naing, an economic and agricultural advisor, told CNI News.

"There is a possibility that the unemployment rate will increase. Mandalay is the second largest city. There are many businesses operating there. Now the whole city is in ruins. Some businesses have stopped. In short, the unemployment rate will increase. It will take some time to rebuild the city. So it will be difficult for businesses to start operating immediately, especially the businesses in more affected areas of Mandalay. The unemployment rate will increase slightly compared to before, and I think the rate of emigration abroad will increase as well." he said.

While seeing a house that collapsed due to the earthquake

International reports indicate that Myanmar's unemployment rate was 1.33 percent in 2021, 2.53 percent in 2022, and 3.69 percent in 2023. 

In Myanmar, where unemployment rate is increasing year by year, as private businesses and government institutions have been damaged by the current earthquake, businesses will remain temporarily suspended until reconstruction is finished.

Economists said that it was impossible to complete the recovery process quickly. It was necessary to think that one citizen had been poor was equal to that the country had been poor, U Htay Aung Kyi, a banking expert, told CNI News.

While seeing rescue operations were being conducted at a house that collapsed due to the earthquake

" In my opinion, it is necessary to think that one citizen has been poor is equal to that the country has been poor. Both private businesses and government tasks in Mandalay could be suspended. Mandalay is the second most populous city in Myanmar and the business capital as well. And it's the center of Upper Myanmar. Many businesses were damaged by the earthquake there. So, staff in the private businesses and companies may be jobless. Demand will fall." he said.

The 7.7 magnitude earthquake that struck Myanmar on March 28 caused extensive damage to government and private businesses in Naypyidaw, Mandalay, and Sagaing, but the exact amount has not been released.

Rescue operations are ongoing due to the damage and collapses, but cleanup and rehabilitation efforts have not yet begun. Furthermore, any group that will provide relief from the earthquake will not be allowed to operate independently and must seek prior approval from the SAC, said the SAC Vice Chairman Vice Senior General Soe Win at a meeting in Naypyidaw on April 5.

CNI News

10 April 2025

Due to a powerful earthquake that recently struck Myanmar, there were a great deal of casualties and damages. If it is taken into account justly, the State Administration Council is less likely to hold elections, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar analyst, told CNI News.

A 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck Myanmar on March 28, damaging government buildings, roads and bridges, including the Hluttaw buildings in Naypyidaw.

Similarly, there have been deaths and injuries in Sagaing and Mandalay Regions, as well as the collapse of homes, hotels, religious buildings, and roads and bridges. 

Myanmar will need to undertake reconstruction work because there were damages caused by the earthquake and war. Similarly, Myanmar will also need to try to recover from its economic downturn, which makes it difficult to hold elections in 2025, she pointed out.

The Hluttaw building was damaged by the earthquake on March 28, 2025

The SAC may hold elections if it wants to do as it pleases. But if justice is taken into account, there will be no possibility of holding elections, said Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw.

"If the SAC thinks justly and fairly, it won't hold elections. It might hold elections if it wants to. If it invited other countries to elections, there would be no possibility of holding elections, I think. No matter how much the SAC gets on well with Russia or China, they can't guarantee what is wrong, I think. So, it is less likely to hold elections. The military council will face more crises. There were also a lot of damages in Naypyidaw. Many government staff houses were also damaged. I think this year will be hard to get through." she said.

Myanmar had planned to hold a general election in December 2025 or January 2026, the SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said at a joint press conference with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on March 7, 2025.

Military and political observers said that it would be difficult to hold elections within the timeframe announced by SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, as the rehabilitation and reconstruction of roads, bridges, and buildings would take time and cost a lot of money.

However, military and political analysts point out that nobody can predict whether the  SAC will hold elections or not, as the country needs political change at a time when reconstruction efforts are underway.  

The SAC Chairman visited earthquake relief teams to meet

If important buildings and sites were repaired together, there would be a possibility of holding elections, U Sai Htay Aung, chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) National Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News.

“The SAC will hold elections at the time when it had said. It has repeatedly said it. The SAC chairman said it when he met with Nepali PM on April 4. We can say that this is a promise from a government that elections will surely be held. If important buildings and sites were repaired together, there would be a possibility of holding elections. I don't think elections will be put off. If elections were put off, the country will face more crises." he said.

SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said at the SAC meeting on March 3, 2025 that the SAC was carrying out to hold a multi-party democratic general election successfully between the third week of December this year and the second week of January 2026.

CNI News

9 April 2025

Australian relief supplies arrived in Myanmar on April 8, 2025, to assist people in need of assistance following the earthquake that struck Myanmar. 

Australia has announced that it will support $9 million to Myanmar. The Australian Embassy in Myanmar announced that the relief supplies, which arrived on April 8, are part of a $9 million aid package from Australia.

The humanitarian aid that arrived in Myanmar includes more than 100 packages of supplies, including shelter materials, cooking supplies, and hygiene kits.

The embassy announced that Australia will support the earthquake victims in cooperation with the International Committee of the Red Cross, ASEAN, and Australian NGOs.

CNI News

9 April 2025

Samaritan’s Purse, The Disaster Assistance Response Team of the US was setting up an emergency hospital in Naypyidaw, Myanmar on April 8 to provide healthcare to the earthquake-affected people and the hospital could provide medical treatment to 200 patients a day.

The hospital included an emergency unit, an intensive care unit, a laboratory and two operating rooms that can handle dozens of surgeries every day, reported Samaritan's Purse. The statement said that there are currently nearly 100 patients waiting for surgery after suffering fractures from the earthquake.

Samaritan's Purse transported 104 tons of relief supplies on a 747 cargo plane on April 7 to help earthquake victims in Myanmar, including six water filtration units, emergency shelter material, solar lights, and personal hygiene kits, household water filters, blankets, mosquito nets and other supplies.

The United States government has pledged $9 million in aid to help Myanmar earthquake victims.