CNI News

March 28, 2026

If peace can be achieved with the three armed groups from Kachin, Rakhine, and Karen, it could make resolving Myanmar’s armed conflicts easier, political analyst Dr. An Kaw La told CNI News.

He also said that the current appointments of Kachin individuals as the Speaker and Deputy Speaker of the National Parliament (Amyotha Hluttaw) may have been made with the intention of facilitating peace with Kachin groups.

Dr. An Kaw La said: “In my view, there are three key groups that are crucial in Myanmar’s current armed conflicts and peace process — the Kachin, Karen, and Rakhine groups. If peace can be achieved with these three, the path to resolving Myanmar’s armed political conflicts will become shorter and easier.  Among them, making peace with the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), which is involved in fighting in Sagaing Region, is particularly important.  At present, Kachin representatives hold positions in the National Parliament. Also, in terms of political rotation, the turn for positions like the vice presidency appears close to Kachin and Rakhine representatives. Therefore, appointing Kachin individuals — including those who previously served under the State Administration Council (SAC) — may be aimed at making future peace efforts with the Kachin easier. Of course, there may be other reasons as well, which we cannot be certain about. But overall, I see this as a positive development that could be beneficial.”

Military and political observers believe that the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Karen National Union (KNU), and Arakan Army (AA) have reached a major turning point, both militarily and politically, in Myanmar’s current political landscape.

Members of KIA, ABSDF, and CNF are seen

The AA has taken control of most townships in Rakhine State and is nearly encircling key areas including the state capital Sittwe and the strategically important Kyaukphyu region. In line with its “Arakan Way,” it is effectively implementing a confederation-style system.

Since 2021, the KIA has gained significant political influence among resistance forces by providing military support and coordinating with the National Unity Government (NUG) and the People’s Defence Force (PDF).

In Sagaing Region, the KIA has been working to expand control over areas such as Homalin, Banmauk, Htigyaing, Tamu, Hkamti, Phaungbyin, Shwe Pyi Aye, Mawlaik, Katha, Kawlin, Pinlebu, and Indaw, as well as parts of the Naga region. It has coordinated with various groups including PDF units, KNA-Burma (Kuki), Naga armed groups (ENDA/ENNO and NPDF), ABSDF, AA, and CNDF.

The KNU has become a major revolutionary hub in southern Myanmar, expanding its military presence not only in Karen State but also into Bago Region and Mon State. 

It is also attempting to control key transportation routes such as the Asian Highway. As one of the closest allies of the NUG, it is actively working to implement the Federal Democracy Charter.

These three groups are indigenous to their respective regions and possess their own communities and territories. 

Two AA leaders are seen

Therefore, they are capable of practically implementing peace if efforts are made, said Colonel Khun Okka, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), a signatory to the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA).

He said: “Kachin, Karen, and Rakhine groups are original ethnic groups who have been engaged in armed struggle for many years. They have the capacity to act, strong public support, and control over their own territories — these are significant strengths. Because they have their own territories and people, they are groups that can realistically implement peace in the country. Even if political dialogue cannot immediately begin with other armed groups, bringing them back into a ceasefire framework would at least reduce tensions. After that, dialogue and peace negotiations can resume.People are hopeful that the new government and new parliament will initiate such processes.”

Kachin State has cross-border trade with China, exports of rare earth minerals, and other natural resource extraction activities. 

Rakhine State has border trade with Bangladesh as well as India’s Kaladan project.

Meanwhile, Karen State serves as a major artery for Thailand–Myanmar border trade.

CNI News

March 28, 2026

If the government increases taxes, it has a responsibility to ensure that people have access to job opportunities and rising incomes so they can pay taxes properly, businesspeople and economic analysts told CNI News.

As citizens, people are obligated to pay taxes set by the state.

However, if taxpayers receive no benefits in return, it becomes problematic. 

Therefore, alongside raising taxes, the government must create employment opportunities, said businessman U Aung Pyae Sone.

He said: “As citizens, we must pay taxes. When we pay income tax, there are some benefits, such as relief when purchasing houses, land, or cars. The government should also ensure that tax revenues collected from the public are used effectively and without waste in the right sectors. People must pay taxes properly, but for them to do so, the government has a responsibility to create job opportunities so people can earn income. Otherwise, if the government only collects taxes whenever it has the chance, and people try to evade taxes whenever possible, the country will continue to stagnate and move backward. Therefore, both the public and the government need to act with goodwill and responsibility.”

The government has also announced that customs duties will be imposed on imported and exported goods based on their type and value under the new law.

Under current regulations, higher taxes will be imposed on special goods such as cigarettes, tobacco products, cheroots, cigars, pipe tobacco, betel-related products, alcohol, beer, and wine.

For example, cigarettes priced between 1,001 kyats and 2,000 kyats will be taxed at 28 kyats per stick, while premium cigarettes priced above 2,001 kyats will be taxed up to 31 kyats per stick. 

Locally consumed cheroots, commonly used in rural areas, will be taxed at a lower rate of 3 kyats per stick.

Economic analyst U Htay Aung Kyaw said many people question whether increasing taxes actually raises government revenue, noting that evidence often shows otherwise.

He said: “Both in theory and in practice, when taxes increase, the key question is whether government revenue actually rises. We also need to consider how higher taxes affect supply and demand.  Higher taxes create a burden shared by both consumers and producers. Sometimes, neither the government nor taxpayers benefit—resulting in a loss for all parties. So it is important to understand that increasing tax rates does not necessarily increase revenue. It can also place additional pressure on the market.”

The law also stipulates that a 5 percent commercial tax will be applied to the landed cost of imported goods across various categories, including food, agriculture and livestock products, educational and office supplies, healthcare goods, religious and social-use items, transportation equipment, industrial goods, defense-related items, gemstones, natural resources, and general goods.

U Aung Pyae Sone also suggested that instead of collecting small amounts of tax from ordinary citizens, the government should ensure proper taxation of large businesses and encourage ethnic entrepreneurs to expand economic activity.

He said: “The key issue is how taxes are structured. There should be fair taxation systems based on income levels, including exemptions for low-income earners.  If people have sufficient income, they will be willing to pay higher taxes. But if people are struggling daily just to survive, additional taxes will only worsen their hardship and lead to public dissatisfaction. The government should listen to the people and make necessary adjustments. Instead of collecting small amounts from ordinary citizens, it should focus on properly taxing large businesses that are capable of contributing more.”

Businesspeople also noted that sectors such as mining, natural gas, resource extraction, and gold mining—where the government can collect significant revenue—should be prioritized for taxation, while easing the burden on ordinary citizens.

CNI News

March 27, 2026

On March 25, 2026, the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang/Yung Aung (NSCN-K/YA) attacked Assam Rifles troops who were providing security for the construction of the Indo-Myanmar border fence.

The NSCN-K/YA released a statement claiming that three members of the Assam Rifles were killed during the attack.

Regarding the incident, the NSCN-YA stated:

"Despite strong opposition from Naga people on both sides of the border, India has ignored these concerns and continues its unlawful construction work. This is a clear crime committed by India against the Naga people, showing a total disregard for the fundamental principles of international law and humanitarian law."

The group further declared that the border fencing project is a "colonial project" and that they will reject and oppose it by any means necessary.

Objective: The NSCN-K/YA is an armed revolutionary group aiming to unite Naga people living in both Myanmar and India to establish an independent Naga state.

Operations: Their central headquarters is located within the Naga Self-Administered Zone in Upper Sagaing Region, Myanmar, while they also maintain military bases within India to wage an insurgency against the Indian government.

Diplomatic Context: Consequently, the Indian government has been urging the Myanmar military and government not to harbor Naga and Kathe (Meitei) armed groups. Both nations continue to hold discussions on cooperating for stability and peace along the shared border.

CNI News

March 26, 2026

Granting greater autonomy to states is necessary to end the long-running armed conflicts between ethnic armed organizations and the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw), which have persisted for nearly 80 years, political analyst Dr. Aung Myo told CNI News.

He said:“As much as possible, autonomy should be granted to the states. A confederation model may not be feasible. Some groups speak of federalism, but in reality, it is not truly federalism. However, autonomy should be granted first. Once that level of autonomy is offered, the military will have fulfilled its part. If the other side does not accept it, then only conflict will remain.In fact, there were also opportunities in the past to amend the constitution through parliament(Hluttaw), but governments—whether under U Thein Sein or the NLD—did not fully act on them. Everything remained centralized. That central control should be reduced. That is the key issue.”

Myanmar’s internal conflicts date back to shortly after independence in 1948 and have continued to the present day.

Ethnic armed organizations have long demanded self-determination and autonomy for their respective states. However, some are now seeking arrangements that go beyond federalism.

At present, although the Myanmar military has invited groups to engage in peace talks, discussions have mainly involved signatories to the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) and groups not currently in active conflict with the military.

During an anniversary celebration of the NCA

Myanmar is not a country belonging to a single ethnic group but a union composed of multiple nationalities. However, in practice, it continues to operate under a highly centralized system, leaving ethnic groups with limited authority, political analyst Sai Main told CNI News.

He said:“In reality, the country still functions as a centralized state, so ethnic groups lack real authority. No matter how much peace talks are held, if one armed group disappears, another will emerge. Sustainable dialogue will not be possible.If we reassess how the country was formed—particularly since 1947—and implement genuine equality, then progress can be made. Otherwise, even as talks continue, all sides are expanding their forces and arming themselves. Myanmar has become a country with numerous armed groups. In Shan State alone, there are around eight major armed groups, some of which are also fighting among themselves. Under such conditions, peace will never be achieved.”

As armed conflicts intensify across Myanmar, the NCA process has nearly come to a halt.

Clashes between the military and various armed groups over territorial control have become more widespread, further hindering the implementation of peace processes, analysts say.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and leaders of armed groups

Dr. Nyo Nyo Thin, founder of the Yangon Watch group, said that although some ethnic armed organizations may not currently be prioritizing peace, there is hope they will eventually come to the negotiating table for the benefit of their regions and people.

She said:“At this moment, some groups may not yet be considering peace. However, at a certain point in time, they will have to think about the interests of their local populations. For the sake of their people and regional peace, they may set aside their own ambitions and come to the negotiating table.”

Decades of armed conflict in Myanmar have eroded trust among the government, the military, and ethnic armed organizations, leading to deep suspicion, analysts noted.

Such mistrust and limitations make meaningful dialogue for peace difficult.

Analysts also emphasized that peace talks should include all armed groups on an equal basis, without excluding smaller groups or those not currently engaged in fighting with the military.

CNI News

March 26, 2026

The directive restricting vehicle usage based on odd and even license plate numbers, introduced to conserve fuel in Myanmar, should be abolished as it has created significant difficulties for the public, said Sai Htay Aung, chairman of the Tai-Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party.

The State Defence and Security Council announced on March 3 that, starting March 7, 2026, cars and motorcycles would be allowed to operate on alternating “odd” and “even” days as part of fuel-saving measures.

Sai Htay Aung told CNI News that the policy, which emerged as a consequence of the fuel shortage crisis, has caused serious hardship for the public. He suggested that instead of enforcing odd-even restrictions, the government should adopt a system of limiting fuel sales.

He said: “Before issuing any directive, the government should carefully assess its pros and cons. Will it create difficulties for the public? Will it solve their problems, or make things worse? These are the questions that should be considered. After this directive was introduced, people’s lives have become more difficult. We are also seeing new measures—such as purchasing fuel with QR codes and allocating fuel based on engine power, once or twice per week. These kinds of measures are more appropriate. People are already suffering from long queues at fuel stations. The odd-even restriction should be removed. If fuel is distributed in a controlled way—based on quotas per vehicle—people will find it more manageable. Given the global situation, including instability in the Middle East, the public understands the fuel challenges and is willing to be considerate. Therefore, the government should abolish the odd-even system and instead implement a weekly quota system based on engine size.”

While Even/Odd restriction violators are being arrested

The Ministry of Energy has announced that fuel purchases will be regulated based on engine power, with limits on how much can be bought per week, allowing purchases no more than twice weekly.

According to the reference fuel prices released on March 24, 2026, prices have reached 3,610 kyats per liter for 92 octane, 3,850 kyats for 95 octane, 4,390 kyats for regular diesel, and 4,820 kyats for premium diesel.

Political analyst U Htet Aung Kyaw also told CNI News that abolishing the odd-even driving restriction and instead controlling fuel sales would be a more effective solution.

While seeing the plan that sells fuel

He said: “If you ask anyone, they will say the odd-even restriction should be scrapped. The government should calculate how much fuel can be imported and how it can be distributed among all vehicles in the country. Instead of forcing people to queue every other day, it would be better to allocate enough fuel for a week at once—whether 30 or 40 liters per vehicle. This would reduce congestion at fuel stations and save people’s time. Once fuel consumption is controlled at the point of sale, vehicle owners can decide when to travel—whether morning, afternoon, or night—based on necessity. Restricting when people can drive is not appropriate and does not work effectively.”

Business owners say the current odd-even system is affecting not only the hotel and tourism sector but also offices and factories, contributing to economic decline.

Observers also note that the restriction may be pushing people toward breaking rules and encouraging corruption among authorities.

Additionally, amid ongoing fuel shortages, the black market for fuel is reportedly expanding rapidly, further impacting the economy and making transportation more difficult for the public.

CNI News

March 26, 2026

U Hla Swe, a member of parliament (Hluttaw), said that the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) aims to govern the country for more than five years while working to promote national development.

The USDP secured victory in the 2025 general election, enabling it to form both the parliament and the government.

However, critics point out that, in practice, the formation of the parliament and government followed arrangements planned by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.

U Hla Swe said: “From the beginning, we believed in this approach. But during President U Thein Sein’s administration, he amended the election law and allowed the NLD to participate. The NLD’s five-year term in power created many problems. They carried out actions that damaged the country. Everyone already knows this, so there is no need to repeat it. We will work hard during these five years to develop the country. From 2010 to 2015, Myanmar was even described as a rising tiger in Asia due to its rapid development. That progress collapsed during Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s time. We want to avoid such setbacks. We are setting long-term goals—five years, ten years, fifteen years, even twenty years. We will work to win votes, develop the country, and earn public trust. If the people do not trust us, they will not vote for us. So we must prove ourselves through development. I can guarantee that we will work for progress and attract public support.”

Some members of the USDP

Political analyst Sai Main criticized U Hla Swe’s remarks, saying they lacked statesmanship and warning that cooperation between the military and the USDP could lead to a return to past political patterns.

He said: “Historically, authoritarian systems have operated for long periods whenever they had the opportunity. Under the one-party system, the country was ruled from 1962 to 1988 for nearly 30 years, until the 1988 uprising. During the SLORC and SPDC eras, even after the NLD won the election, power was not transferred, and the military retained control for decades. Similarly, the military and the Burma Socialist Programme Party once ruled together for around 30 years. Now, with the military and the USDP working together again, it cannot be ruled out that a similar situation could emerge. The current election and parliament appear largely symbolic, so such an outcome remains possible. In general, political parties tend to promote themselves by criticizing others. But his remarks seem more like an attempt to discredit the opposing side. Such statements are not very statesmanlike and do not reflect the behavior of a smart politician.”

Leaders of the NLD party

The Union Solidarity and Development Association was originally formed on September 15, 1993, and later transformed into the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) ahead of the 2010 general election.

After governing under President U Thein Sein, the USDP lost the 2015 general election to the National League for Democracy (NLD) and transferred power.

In the 2020 general election, the USDP again lost to the NLD. However, the NLD was later removed from power after being accused of failing to resolve voter list disputes, leading to the military takeover on February 1, 2021.

Subsequently, the military held the 2025 general election in three phases between December 28, 2025, and January 25, 2026, in which the USDP emerged as the winning party.

CNI News

March 25, 2026

If peace negotiations are to be carried out in Myanmar, ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) should be engaged separately, as their interests differ and the strategic importance of the territories where fighting occurs also varies, political analyst Dr. An Kaw La told CNI News.

“All ethnic armed groups cannot simply be invited together at once, in our view,” he said. “Their interests are not the same. Moreover, the areas where clashes take place differ in terms of size and strategic importance. Based on those differences, outcomes may diverge. Therefore, what is meant by ‘all-inclusive’ is more likely to proceed through bilateral approaches with each group.”

He added that, unlike during the time of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), when there were efforts to include multiple groups under a single framework, such an approach would be difficult under current conditions.

“In reality, since interests are different, negotiations need to be conducted separately, followed by dialogue processes. There are many stages involved in implementing peace. However, I do not think everything can happen simultaneously. A number of steps still need to be taken beforehand, and depending on how those are prepared and whether they succeed or fail, changes may occur,” he said.

An anniversary celebration of the NCA

Since 2021, Myanmar’s political landscape has shifted, with ethnic armed groups expanding control beyond their previous territories. As a result, analysts say dialogue has become unavoidable.

During the administration of former President U Thein Sein, ceasefire offers were made to EAOs, leading to the signing of the NCA as well as bilateral agreements with individual groups. Similarly, under the National League for Democracy (NLD) government, the New Mon State Party (NMSP) and the Lahu Democratic Union (LDU) signed the NCA.

Although Union Peace Conferences were held under both civilian governments, analysts note that their impact was limited. The conference was first convened in 2016 under U Thein Sein’s administration, with the last session held in August 2020 during Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s government.

After nearly five years of political upheaval, EAOs that have gained advantages on multiple fronts are now making higher-level demands than before.

U Khun Sai, a participant in the peace process, also told CNI News that all armed groups in Myanmar should prioritize dialogue over confrontation.

A conference of armed groups

“International peace experts say they have never seen a country as politically knowledgeable as Myanmar. Every group is full of political experts,” he said. “But the problem is that instead of negotiating to reach agreement, they spend their time competing to win arguments. When they fail to win through debate, they resort to arms.”

“That is why, in our country, we must move away from prioritizing debate and instead adopt genuine dialogue—working together to find solutions. Since peace talks began in 2011, we aimed to build a new culture of resolving political problems through dialogue rather than force. It has been about 15 years now, and we still have not fully implemented it. It is time to do so,” he urged.

Analysts also point out that peace talks will not be possible as long as deep mistrust and restrictions persist among the government, the military, and ethnic armed groups.

They add that both domestic and international peace facilitators will play an important role in making such dialogue processes possible.

CNI News

March 25, 2026

Authorities in Naypyidaw announced on March 24, 2026, the seizure of drugs and related production equipment valued at approximately 20.2 billion Kyats near Kaw Yar Village, Mine Hae (Lower) Village Tract, in Tachileik Township, Eastern Shan State.

On the afternoon of March 24, at around 3:00 PM, officials discovered two large tarpaulin tents (100 feet by 30 feet) used for drug production and packaging. The site is located approximately 28,500 meters northwest of Tachileik and 2,000 meters northwest of Kaw Yar Village.

According to the official statement, the raid also uncovered: One dining tent (50ft x 30ft) and one residential tent.

Three small residential tents (10ft x 10ft).Three additional storage tents (10ft x 15ft).

Naypyidaw stated that security forces will continue clearing the surrounding area, as further suspicious production sites are suspected to exist in the vicinity.

Since the escalation of political and military conflict after February 21, 2021, Myanmar has seen a massive surge in drug and arms trafficking. As the rule of law has declined, local populations have increasingly fallen victim to the drug trade.

This raid follows a similar operation between January 16 and 22, 2026, where drug factories and production materials were also seized near Hsipaw and Mongyai in Northern Shan State.

CNI News

March 25, 2026

If Myanmar is to build a federal union, it should adopt a system tailored to the specific conditions of each region or state, U Saw Than Myint, Joint Secretary of the Shan and Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP), told CNI News.

According to him, his party envisions a system in which regions such as Yangon would have full authority over the three branches of power—legislative, judicial, and executive—exercised by their respective regional parliaments or governments. Only then, he said, would regions and states be able to exercise meaningful authority.

“Each country practices governance differently, and each region also differs,” he said. “For example, India is not officially called a federal country, yet it governs through a federal system. Federalism is essentially about how administration, management, and governance are carried out.”

He added that the conditions in Shan State, Chin State, Rakhine State, and Yangon Region are all different, and therefore cannot be managed under a single uniform model.

“As long as it does not contradict the main constitution, regions and states should have the authority to draft and implement sub-constitutions suited to their own areas. That is federalism. Administration will naturally differ from one region to another. Therefore, each region must adopt a system that fits its own situation. However, for nationwide implementation, it must be defined by the constitution,” he said.

Armed forces seen

At present, Myanmar has yet to reach agreement among the military, government, parliament, ethnic armed groups, and political parties on what kind of federal system should be established.

A political analyst told CNI News that it is uncertain whether ethnic armed organizations would accept the federal model envisioned under the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), suggesting they may not wish to follow that framework.

“To resolve the ongoing internal armed conflicts—particularly between ethnic armed groups and the military—there must be a solution,” he said. “If federalism is to be adopted, every peace negotiation ultimately leads to discussions on constitutional reform and how to establish a federal system.”

He added that while federalism may remain the general goal, the situation following Operation 1027 has raised questions about whether a federal democratic system can realistically be implemented.

He pointed out that the United Wa State Army (UWSA) has rejected the 2008 Constitution and governs its territory autonomously. Similarly, the Northern Alliance groups—the Arakan Army (AA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA)—have gained control over territories through armed means since Operation 1027.

Various national ethnic groups seen

“If the federal system outlined in the NCA were to be implemented, it is uncertain whether these groups would accept it,” he said. “They may remain within a federal framework, but it is not guaranteed that they would adopt a multi-party democratic system in their regions. If forced, they may reject it. If peace is to be achieved, they are unlikely to follow the exact federal model defined in the NCA,” he added.

In Myanmar, ethnic armed groups and political parties broadly support the establishment of a federal democratic union, while the government and military have also stated their support for building a democratic federal union.

However, the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) itself stipulates the establishment of a union based on federalism and democracy.

Analysts also caution that when building a federal union in Myanmar, federalism and democracy should not be conflated, and must be clearly distinguished. They note that the collapse of the Soviet Union serves as a warning of the risks of mixing the two concepts improperly.

Similarly, during the era of General Ne Win, Myanmar adopted the “Burmese Way to Socialism,” which ultimately failed and led to national decline. Therefore, analysts warn that caution is needed when attemptin;g to create a uniquely “Myanmar-style” federal system.