CNI News

15 August 2025

Since those who oppose the election might carry out in various ways not to make the election successful, security must be guaranteed, said Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission. 

He said the above during the meeting of the SSPC that was held in Naypyidaw on August 12, 2025.

"We must ensure security for voting in the relevant townships within the specified time period. There may be individuals and organizations that will carry out subversive activities, both domestically and internationally, to prevent the election from taking place. They can use all kinds of methods to prevent the election from succeeding," he said.

Then, as for foreign countries, there may be positive countries that support the holding of multi-party democratic general elections in our country, while there may also be countries that criticize the elections. 

While the meeting of the military commission was being held

Therefore, he said, efforts must be made to ensure that the upcoming election is a free, fair and corruption-free election, he said.

“Political party members and candidates participating in the election must be provided with the necessary protection to ensure their safe and secure operation from the campaign period to the voting period. As killings of civil servants and the people, accusing them as decoys, are likely to increase during the election period, effective prevention and protection measures will be needed," he said.

In Myanmar, plans have been made to hold elections in 267 townships in December 2025 and January 2026, the Union Election Commission (UEC) told CNI News.

Then, some ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), including the National Unity Government (NUG), the National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC), The Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw  (CRPH), the People's Defense Forces (PDF), and the Spring Revolution Forces, have announced that they will completely disrupt the upcoming elections in Myanmar.

Therefore, political parties, candidates that will compete in the election and voters are concerned about security.

CNI News

15 August 2025

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing would not hold the election due to pressure from China, but rather China called it by ear depending on what he said, China-Myanmar affairs analyst Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw told CNI News.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing's plan to hold elections in December 2025 and January 2026 is widely viewed as a result of Chinese pressure. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing's decision to hold elections was not due to Chinese pressure, but to gain legitimacy for him, said Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw. 

" The Senior General's plan to hold elections is not because of Chinese pressure, but to gain legitimacy for him. He staged a coup d'etat, claiming because of the NLD's vote fraud. Only when elections are held again, will it be convenient for him to become the Present. He tries to gain legitimacy. China followed suit only after the Senior General said. And then, China requested the Senior General to release Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and not to declare the NLD as an unlawful association. So, China had to follow suit." she said.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has promised the international community that elections will be held in December 2025 and January 2026, and the country's governance structure has changed since July 31. 

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and the President Xi Jinping

There are speculations among military and political analysts that this change is due to pressure from China. Furthermore, there are reports that Senior General Min Aung Hlaing is determined to hold the election in December, whether he likes it or not.

However, there are differences of opinion both domestically and internationally on whether elections are likely to take place. There are concerns that holding the election will create further difficulties and crises amid widespread armed conflicts across most of the country, Col. Saw Kyaw Nyunt, a spokesperson for the 7EAO Alliance, told CNI News.

“The extent to which the public is interested in the election is also a major challenge. As we all know, regional stability is so bad. This is the first time that our country has experienced a large-scale armed conflict when elections will be held. So, the 7 EAO Alliance are worried that elections will create further difficulties and crises." he said.

Malaysia, the rotating chair of ASEAN, has urged that all relevant organizations can only discuss the issue by prioritizing an end to all violence, rather than prioritizing the election. However, China, India, Thailand, and Bangladesh, which are all Myanmar's neighboring countries, welcomed the upcoming elections in Myanmar.

Moreover, neighboring countries see the election as a way out, and military and political analysts believe that these countries will continue to encourage the election.

CNI News
14 August 2025

The Spring Revolution armed groups gathered and discussed a few days ago and what it could happen to military and politics is being considered by military and political analysts.

In July and August 2025, the Chin Brotherhood (CB), Karenni National Defense Force (KNDF), Yaw Tattaw, Myingyan PDF, NUG Ministers, and Naga armed groups gathered at the KIA headquarters to meet and discuss with the KIA.

The gathering of Spring Revolution forces at the KIA headquarters means they can discuss the issue of lost territories and collective action, U Li Paw Reh, chairman of the Lisu National Development Party, told CNI News.

“The public is not the same as before. During the election period, they can carry out military operations and then cause a little disturbance. But after the election, if the people’s government, the elected government, and the elected representatives come to power, the military can launch many offensives. The areas that the armed groups have seized may also be lost. So, it is likely that armed groups are gathering and consulting because their military situation is not so good. To tell you frankly, they have lost Bhamo as well. And they have lost many territories in Tanai. The KIA alone can't wage military operations anymore. They possible will discuss to wage operations with collective strength." he said.

While seeing the KIA leader, Lt-Gen Gun Maw and the Yaw Army

The KIA is providing military training and living support to the Spring Revolution forces, including weapons and ammunition, and is also providing support for joint operations in Sagaing Region and Kachin State.

The gathering of Spring Revolution forces at the KIA headquarters in advance may be a negotiation for survival rather than preparation for the election period, U Thein Tun Oo, Executive Director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies, told CNI News.

" Currently, the Myanmar Tatmadaw has the upper hand in areas where the Defense and Security Council is effectively handling. It has been able to regain control of some towns. Their gathering like this is possible that they are conspiring something for their last defense. As the election is drawing near, are they conspiring something to disturb the election?  There are many other things possible as well. They seem to try to protect their territories in a form of collective protection. They negotiated how they go on rather than disturbing the election, I think." said U Thein Tun Oo.

While seeing the NUG and the Chin Brotherhood

AA, ENDA/ENNO, NUG, NUCC, CNF, ABSDF, and PDF are currently gathering at the Headquarters of the KIA, said sources close to them.  The Union Election Commission (UEC) is planning to hold elections in Myanmar in December 2025 and January 2026.

Considering the political situation in Myanmar before and after the election, the KIA is meeting with the Spring Revolution forces and preparing for military and political action, said sources close to the matter.

On the other hand, the KIA has made offers to meet and discuss with the Myanmar Tatmadaw, and the two sides are negotiating a location for the talks, according to sources close to both organizations.

CNI News

14 August 2025

Major General Tar Bone Kyaw, General Secretary  of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), wrote on his Facebook page on August 12, 2025, that China is exerting influence and control that only looks after its own interests. 

He wrote under the title "The Greatest Challenge Facing the Current Revolution."

“The biggest difficulties facing the current revolution are the actions of the ruthless Burmese military dictator that is killing people without mercy, the hegemony of China that only looks after its own interests, the people who are exhausted by the dictatorship’s long oppression, the fact that a strong leadership for the revolution has not yet been built. There may be other things as well. But, we will have to overcome these difficulties step by step, Comrades,” he said on his page.

The TNLA launched Operation 1027 on 27 October 2023, in conjunction with the Kokang's Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Arakan Army (AA), the PDFs, BPLA, KNDA, BNRA, and MDY-PDF, and captured Namkham, Nansang, Man Tong, Namtu, Mong Ngor, Kutkai, Thibaw, Kyaukme, Naung Cho, and Momeik in northern Shan State, as well as Mogok in Mandalay Region.

While  seeing the letter written by Major General Tar Bone Kyaw

Then, after the Chinese government pressured the TNLA to stop fighting and hold talks and imposed sanctions called five cuts approach against the TNLA.

Similarly, the MNDAA was pressured not to engage in joint offensives, forced to withdraw from Lashio, and stopped supplying weapons and ammunition to the TNLA.

Therefore, the TNLA met with the Myanmar Tatmadaw for the first time on February 16-17, 2025, and for the second time on April 28-29. They are then preparing for a third meeting in August 2025. 

Currently, the Myanmar Tatmadaw has been conducting offensives to regain control of Kyaukme, Hsipaw, and Mogok, after recapturing Naung Cho, which was previously controlled by the TNLA, in July 2025.

China has forbidden the MNDAA and the UWSA from the sale and supply of arms and ammunition to the TNLA,  so the TNLA has guns only and no ammunition, unable to launch an offensive, awaiting a change in China's policy, according to those close to revolutionary circles.

CNI News

14 August 2025

He was banned from contesting elections after being arrested for high treason during the National League for Democracy (NLD) government, and he would only be allowed to contest the elections if the President lifts the ban, Dr. Aye Maung, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), told CNI News. 

Dr. Aye Maung was arrested and imprisoned by the NLD government in January 2018, claiming that his speeches at a ceremony marking the 233rd anniversary of the fall of the Rakhine Kingdom in Rathedaung, northern Rakhine State, was the same as high treason.

Dr. Aye Maung, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and Senior General Min Aung Hlaing

The NLD government then charged Dr. Aye Maung with high treason under sections 121, 171, and 172 of the Constitution and defamation of the state under sections 505(a) and 505(b) of the Constitution, sentenced him to 20 years in prison, disqualified him from the Hluttaw, and declared him ineligible to run the election in future election.

Then, on February 12, 2021, Dr. Aye Maung was released on pardon by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. Therefore, Dr. Aye Maung, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), told CNI News that he would only be allowed to contest the election if Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who is currently acting president, pardons him under Article 204(a) of the Constitution.

While seeing a statement that Dr. Aye Maung has no right to run the election

“I don’t have the right to contest elections according to the law.  I have been consecuted with high treason and defamaition of the state. 88(a) needs to be re-examined to see if it is a crime.According to Section 204 (a) of the Constitution, the President has the authority to grant pardon for any offence. I'm not sure how the President will decide. If I was granted amnesty under Section 204(a), I think I would contest the upcoming election." he said.

Dr. Aye Maung has formed the Arakan Front Party (AFP) and is seeking to contest elections in Rakhine State, scheduled for December 2025 and January 2026.

CNI News

13 August 2025

As regions where rare earth can be produced are politically a trump card for the Kachin Independence Army, it would not back down easily, military and political analysts told CNI News. 

Almost all the places where rare earth that can be extracted within Kachin State have been controlled by the KIA. 

Since rare earth is several billion dollars worth, the Myanmar Tatmadaw could launch military operations to regain control of those places, they considered.

So, battles could be severely take place between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the KIA in the regions where rare earth can be extracted, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a Myanmar-China affairs analyst, told CNI News.

"Panwa and Kan Pite Tee where lots of rare earth are located are very close to the Chinese border. So, it's not easy for the Myanmar Tatmadaw to use heavy weapons or drop bombs. China warned that it won't tolerate heavy weapons or bombs being dropped on its side. These things are a trump card of the KIA, so it won't retreat easily, I think. The Myanmar Tatmadaw will fight tooth and nail to regain control of these regions. Fierce battles could break out there." she said.

Rare earth elements are essential for the production of smartphones, electric cars, weapons systems, fighter jets, and high-tech products around the world. 

While some rare earth elements were being carried

The KIA has seized rare earth mineral-producing areas in Kachin State, including the Panwa region, which has nearly 300 rare earth blocks. 

The top three countries producing rare earth elements in the world are China, the United States, and Myanmar. In 2024, China accounted for nearly 70 percent of the world's production, the United States for more than 11 percent, and Myanmar for nearly 8 percent, according to a report by Statista, a New York-based organization in the United States, in February 2025.

Since rare earth elements belong to the state, there should be negotiations over their distribution, the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP) Chairman Sai Htay Aung told CNI News.

" Rare earth elements are produced around Momauk. The Myanmar Tatmadaw can try to recapture this region because it is owned by the state. The mineral belong to the whole country. Negotiations are needed for resource sharing." he said.

Myanmar's rare earth exports to China reached 4,200 tons in September 2024. However, during the three months - October, November and December that year when battles were breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the KIA in Chipwe and Panwa, more than 3,300 tons of rare earth element only could be exported, reported local media.

While extracting rare earth elements and seeing an armed group

Additionally, Reuters reported a few days ago that the administration of US President Donald Trump was likely to hold talks with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) over purchasing rare earth elements from Myanmar. The United States was seeking to get Myanmar's rare earth minerals which were entering China, four sources told Reuters.

Therefore, domestic and foreign military and political analysts are questioning whether a competition between China and the United States over rare earth elements could arise. 

The incident was a political balancing act by the KIA to prevent further Chinese pressure on it, Colonel Khun Okkar, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), which signed the NCA, told CNI News.   
 
" In my opinion, among the armed groups in Myanmar, the KIA is close to the US. The US also approaches. Among the EAOs, the KIA only approaches the US. Rather than whether the US purchases the rare earth elements from the KIA or not, the KIA tries to make contact with the US by reason of the rare earth elements. China put pressure on the KIA as well. The KIA seems to use a system of checks and balances. It means that it makes contact with the US. It's a political balancing, I think." he said.

One of the proposals put forward to the Trump administration is to encourage the Myanmar Tatmadaw to hold peace talks with the KIA, while another is for the United States to negotiate directly with the KIA. 

Global Witness reported in May 2024 that illegal exports of rare earth elements generated $1.4 billion in revenue over the three years following the political change.

Almost all the rare earth elements illegally exported reportedly was from Panwa and the Kachin Special Region (1).

CNI News

13 August 2025

If the Myanmar Tatmadaw discussed with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in Myitkyina, Kachin State, the KIA would accept to do so, said Lt-Gen Gun Maw of the KIA/KIO. Lieutenant General Gun Maw responded to the BBC's question as above

"The KIO's attitude is not to hold online discussions. If the Myanmar Tatmadaw has a real desire to discuss in Myitkyina, the KIO will send a delegation to Myitkyina in order to discuss there, which the KIO replied. But the KIO has not received any reply." he said.

The KIA made contct with the Myanmar Tatmadaw through the Peace-talk Creation Group (PCG), a Kachin-based organization in Myanmar that facilitates dialogue and negotiations between the Myanmar government, the Myanmar Tatmadaw, and the Kachin Independence Army.

But the Myanmar Tatmadaw replied to the KIA that it would discuss later because the battles were severely taking place in Bhamo, sources close to Naypyidaw told CNI News.

 “The KIO did not initiate the offer. It was a message from Nay Pyi Taw to the PCG (Peace-talk Creation Group) after the peace talks held in Naypyidaw last year.” said Lieutenant General Gun Maw.

He said that the Myanmar Tatmadaw asked the KIA regarding peace talks again through the PCG last month and the KIO replied that its position remained the same as before.

The KIA sent the PCG to Naypyidaw and said through the PCG that it wanted to meet and discuss at the peace talks held in Naypyidaw, but the Myanmar Tatmadaw responded that since the Bhamo Battle was ongoing, if the KIA wanted to discuss, the two sides would start discussing through online and then discuss in person after building mutual trust, according to those close to Naypyidaw.

Currently, battles are severely breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the KIA in and around Bhamo City. 

The KIA is providing weapons and ammunition to other armed groups fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw, and in collaboration with them, the KIA is fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw in Sagaing and Magway Regions.

CNI News

12 August 2025

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Eastern Naga Nationalities Defense Army (ENDA) collaborate and are arresting Naga youths, announced the Naga Students Organization (NSO) on August 8, 2025. 

In collaboration with the ENDA, the KIA was arrested at least 30 Naga youths on the way to hill-side cultivation areas and timber extracting places, stated the NSO on July 27 and on July 30, 2025.

The Naga Students' Organization (NSO) has expressed its deep disappointment over the violence perpetrated against the Naga people by the KIA and ENDA groups.

CNI News

12 August 2025

There are trade difficulties and delays in goods in Myanmar due to conflicts on border and domestic trade routes, excessive gate fees, and the presence of numerous armed groups. 
Trucks mainly import consumer goods from neighboring Thailand, using the Myawaddy-Htok Kaw Ko-Nabu-Hpa-An section of the road, also known as the old Dawna Taung Road.

The significant drop in Thai goods flow is due to difficult transportation and the large number of checkpoints, an official from the department of unloading and loading goods of the Myawaddy Township Trade Zone told CNI News.

“First, due to the checks and arrests at the Mayangyaung border gate, most import and export businesses have seen a 30 percent drop in official goods flow compared to the previous month. Thai goods flow, which used to be full, will now only be 30 percent. Where there is a 30 percent flow, only businesses that carry duty will be able to flow. From what I know from agents, while previously 100 trucks could go through, now only 30 can. For freight workers, this month is a month of low income. Due to the closure of the Asia Road, the traffic conditions on the old Daun Taung Road, Htok Kaw Koe Road, and Kyet Oo Taung Road are not as bad as last year, but this year there is less trade flow. The dirt and gravel roads are causing traffic accidents, the area is unstable and there are frequent and intense battles, which are causing harm to traders, and the people are facing food shortages due to rising commodity prices," he said.

While the TNLA was inspecting trucks

The old Dawna Taung Road is a single-lane dirt road that is used for one day uphill and one day downhill, and travelers say that various armed groups are demanding tolls on the road. 

“The number of our trucks on the road has decreased by half compared to before, and the number of 6-wheeled vehicles has decreased by half compared to before. I think we pay duty on imported animals and pigs. There are many imported vehicles. There are many gates on the mountain road. There are many KNLA groups on the old road. If you go beyond the Nabu road, there are many KNU and KNLA Peace Council groups.” U Aung Kyaw Oo, chairman of the Prahita Alinthit Association, told CNI News.

Thai consumer goods are widely used in Myanmar, and local people in Mon and Kayin States rely on the flow of Thai goods for their business. 

Similarly, Myanmar is importing electrical appliances, consumer goods, and construction materials , including medicines from China, but trade has been halted due to ongoing fighting along the China-Myanmar border trade route and armed groups controlling the route and demanding money.

The flow of illegal Thai goods has decreased significantly due to inspections at the Mayangyaung border gate, and the number of legal goods from Thailand has also decreased by half, an online shop owner told CNI News. 

While the police were checking cars

Similarly, the flow of goods between regions and states in Myanmar has been reduced and trade is becoming increasingly difficult due to the Myanmar Tatmadaw and various armed groups opening gates on trade routes, conducting frequent inspections, demanding money, and imposing restrictions.

"Trucks depend on custom duties. They can  go and return within a day. There are KNLA gates on the old road and there are BGF, DKBA and KNU gates on the Htaw Koh Kaw road, a total of about 10 gates. The Kyet Oo Taung section of the road has been fully controlled by the DKBA. A passenger has to pay 100,00 or 150,000 kyats. Trucks and cars have to queue to be checked and if they start leaving at 06:00 a.m., they reach the destination about 02:00 p.m." said a driver of a bus going on the Myawaddy-Hpa-an Road to CNI News.

Myanmar depend on China and Thailand in importing consumer goods, foodstuffs, construction materials, electric products and medicines. Currently, the Myawaddy-Kawkareik Asia Road, a Thailand-Myanmar border trade route cannot used due to battles. 

Moreover, Kyekhaung-Muse-Lashio-Mandalay Road, a China-Myanmar border trade route

cannot be used as well due to battles.