CNI News

November 19, 2024

As armed conflicts have been taking place widely in Myanmar and the military framework is expanding, it is necessary to hold discussions to expand the political framework according to military and political analysts. 

It was necessary to hold political peace talks continuously and patiently to make the military framework narrow, chairperson of the Arakan Liberation Party (ALP), Daw Saw Mya Raza Lin told CNI News.

" If the military conflict takes too long, more casualties will take place. There have been lots of casualties just now. So, we'll arrive at the roundtable one day or another. Military framework is wide while the political framework is narrow. We need to be patient to make the military framework narrow. We'll have to hold political talks continuously. And then, it's necessary to consider the results from the political talks. After that, participants at the roundtable need to attempt in order to reduce battles more than now, I think." she said.

While seeing the TNLA

Armed conflicts have been taking place in Myanmar since 1948. Although discussions were held again and again to end armed conflicts, they were void and battles resumed. 

Armed conflicts have broken out across the country as a result of political disagreements that started on 1st February 2021 and the number of IDPs has been over 6 millions, according to the ISP-Myanmar.

As the two organizations, only if they gave priority to the public, would the political framework be wider, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News.

" When the war breaks out between the two sides, the public is hurt. Politics has retreated. To make the politics come to the fore, all the stakeholders need to see the real landscape. It's necessary to take a historical lesson. The Myanmar Tatmadaw should take the lesson and so should the State Administration Council (SAC) that is currently leading the country. In the same way, only if all the armed revolutionary elements give priority to the Myanmar public, will politics be strong. Only if all the stakeholders negotiate and solve the problem politically, military tension will be reduced. Independence will be given to Myanmar for the second time." he said.

While seeing leaders from the government, the Tatmadaw and EAOs

Over 20 delegates from 11 political parties, six EAOs, the NSPNC and the CPR were invited to India and constitution and federalism were discussed there on 5th and 6th November. 

Thailand is to lead and hold an informal meeting on the issue of Myanmar among the members of the ASEAN in December 2024.

Currently, battles are severely breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and EAOs/PDFs in Sagaing, Mandalay, Magway, Bago, Tanintharyi Regions, Shan, Karen, Kayah, Chin, Kachin, Mon and Rakhine States.

CNI News

November 20, 2024

They were making attempts in order to be able to hold the election as able as they could and must implement a dignified election and Hluttaw said chairman of the State Administration Council. 

He said the above at the meeting of the SAC on 19th November 2024.

" The SAC will hold a free and fair multi-party democratic general election and go on carrying out in order to hand over the State responsibilities to the winning party; they are making attempts as able as they can in order to be able to hold the election and they must implement to make a dignified Hluttaw arise." said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

The SAC mainly must carry out so as not to make mistakes in the vote list and members of the SAC must perform by division of labor to make the vote list correct; Myanmar Electronic Voting Machine would be used in the coming election, he added. And then, the election would be held step by step, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

Chairman of the SAC separately met with PMs from Laos, Thailand and Cambodia, and explained and discussed the matters relating to the election when he went to China from 5th to 10th November.

The SAC would invite international analyst delegates to make the election transparent, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

The election would be elected in 2025 and the State power would be handed over to the winning party, he said.

CNI News

19 November, 2024

Local price of pure gold has fallen to 59.3 lakh kyats per tical on 19th November from over 60 lakh kyats, according to the gold market. 

As the Central Bank is selling the US dollars to the financial market, the price of dollars has decreased and the global price of gold has fallen and so has the local price of gold.

According to the current situation, there has been no prospect that could make the price of gold rise, chairman of the Yangon Gold Entrepreneurs Association, U Myo Myint told CNI news. 

" The price of the dollar has fallen. It's partly possible because the Central Bank sells dollars and the global price of gold has decreased as well. And the demand for gold has declined. The price of gold might fall any more. There is no prospect that can make the price of gold rise." he said.

Local price of pure gold was 61 lakh kyats on 13th November and 59.8 lakh kyats on 14th November and 59.3 lakh kyats on 19th November.

The global price of gold was 2,754 dollars in early November and then the price gradually fell and the current price is only 2,618 dollars. 

While seeing gold jewelries

In the same way, the local price of dollars is 4,400 kyats per dollar because the Central Bank sells dollars. 

Because the local price of gold had declined, although transaction of gold bars had stopped, gold was regularly being sold or bought as jewelry, added U Myo Myint.

" Gold is regularly being sold and bought in the local market. Although the trade of gold bars can be stopped, gold shops are regularly selling jewelry partly because  now is the donation ceremony season. Those who have bought gold at 85 lakh kyats due to rumors don't want to sell their gold when the price is low at a time like this." he said.

Local price of gold rose until 85 lakh kyats per tical, record breaking price and then it fell to 65 lakh kyats. 

After that, the price fell to 61 lakh kyats from 65 lakh kyats. 

It was stable for about two months. However, the price fell to less than 60 lakh kyats.

The gold market has been stagnant for the time being because traders are waiting to buy gold as the price could decline again.

CNI News

20 November, 2024

Although the census-taking was able to be conducted only in the three townships, Rakhine State where armed conflicts were although it had been starting since 1st October, according to locals. 

The three townships where census-taking could be conducted are Sittwe, Kyauk Phyu and Manaung. Among the three townships, the census-taking could be fully conducted, U Saw Naing, a resident of Sittwe, told CNI News.

" The townships where census-taking was conducted are Sittwe, Kyauk Phyu and Manaung. But in Sittwe and Kyauk Phyu, census-taking could be conducted only inside the towns. But census-taking could be fully conducted just in Manaung. In other townships, population and facts were not complete." he said.

Many townships in Rakhine State have been controlled by the Arakan Army (AA) and even in a township that has controlled by the SAC, as residents had to flee due to battles, facts and information would not be available, said locals. 

There are 17 townships in Rakhine State and Kyauktaw, Mrauk U, Minbya, Myebon, Ponnagyun, Rathedaung, Buthidaung, Pauktaw, Ranbye and Thandwe have been captured by the AA.  

While that census-taking would be conducted was being informed aloud

Kyauk Phyu, Taung Goat, Manaung, Gwa, Ann and Sittwe still have been controlled by the SAC.

" I heard the census-taking was conducted in Sittwe and it can't be done in other places. They won't dare to come to other places." said U Hla Maung Thein, a resident of Mrauk U.

Although the SAC still has controlled Sittwe where census-taking was being conducted, residents of Sittwe fled to safety since several months ago. 

The AA is waging offensives to Gwa, Maungdaw and Ann Townships where the SAC has controlled while the AA has blocked Kyauk Phyu, Taung Goat, Manaung and Sittwe Townships. 

So, the SAC was able to conduct the census-taking in some wards of the townships only, said locals.

56,000 million kyats would be spent to conduct the census-taking, reported the SAC. The census collected reportedly will be announced on 31st December 2024.

CNI News

20 November 2024

As Donald Trump was elected in the US presidential election and the new US government led by Donald Trump will come to power, Myanmar people who are making preparations to leave for third country might find it difficult, pointed out political commentators and those who are performing the issue of workers. 

Trump had said foreign aids of the US, migration and refugee cases would be strictly tackled since the campaign period.

Moreover, because he promised that about one million undocumented migrant foreigners would be sent back, Myanmar people who will move to third country might find it more difficult, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator told CNI News.

" Because of Trump's policy that blocks those who enter the US as migrant people, it will be more difficult for those who are making preparations to leave for the US as a third country. Democrats heartily welcomed the cases regarding foreigners who will enter the US while Trump imposed the law that will block the visas for refugees or migrant people. So, it might be more difficult for them who will enter the US, I think." he said.

While the UNHCR was providing aids to Myanmar refugees

However, as Trump had not formed a government yet, what policy would be laid down would be watched, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News. 

If Trump carried out his campaign promise, it would be worrisome for Myanmar migrant people, he added.

" According to the facts Trump said, it'll be more difficult for those who have arrived in the US and those who are making preparations to enter the US, I think. As the individuals Trump has selected as cabinet members are hard on migrant people, it will be worrisome a bit for migrants, I think." said U Thein Tun Oo.

Most Myanmar people who are making preparations to take refuge in a third country are in Thailand and Malaysia and Myanmar Muslims in Malaysia, Myanmar ethnic people who fled battles in Thailand. 

They are trying to enable them to migrate in third countries in western countries including the US.

While seeing Myanmar refugees

If the Trump government came to power, although attempts by those who were preparing to take refuge in third countries were unstoppable, they might be delayed, director of the Arakan Workers Organization, Ko Naing Aung Aung told CNI News.

" When he came to power for the first time, he said so. But the process will exist. But it might be delayed. It depends on attempts by those who are preparing to take in refuge or their performance. It is important how much he pays attention to the issue. There are two groups who are trying to take refuge in third countries. One is in Thailand and they fled battles after the coup d'état in Myanmar, staying in the refugee camps. The other is in Malaysia. The grants paid to them might decrease." he said.

The number of refugees who are seeking to enable them to take refuge is 776, 500 in 2025 and 94 percent of them are from Myanmar and Afghanistan, according to a report by the UNHCR.

CNI News

20 November 2024

Although pieces of news dated 18th November saying leader of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) has been arrested by the Chinese government has emerged, some people are asking questions whether he has been really arrested. 

As the Kokang is part of China, the news might not correct because according to the nature of Chinese people, they wouldn't hurt one another, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, an NCA signatory, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

" I don't think the news is not right because Kokang also is Chinese. China had to give the Kokang region to the British after the British captured Myanmar. The Kokang region was part of China in a row. China possibly called and discussed with Peng Daxun. That China has detained him is impossible, I think because to the best of my knowledge, Chinese people don't hurt one another kind of. It's less likely to happen so. They are possibly negotiating." he said.

While seeing Feng Jiaxing who built the MNDAA

Chines Special Envoy Deng Xijun said that four influential families from Laukkai were damaged because they went against China, from which Feng family should take a lesson during his meeting with some leaders of the United Wa State Army (UWSA) in August 2024. 

Moreover, the Kokang region could exist without Feng family and China had to impose five embargoes on the family, he said.

Peng Daxun is son of Feng Jiaxing who built the MNDAA and he left for China to discuss with Chinese Special Envoy in October and he has not get back from China up to now. After that, the news came out of that he has been under house arrest.

Peng Daxun had been receiving medical treatment in China since October and Chinese government was performing for his security, which people possibly thought that he had been arrested, a China-based Myanmar-China affairs commentator, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw told CNI News.

While the MNDAA has seized control of the Northeast Command in Lashio

" What I heard is like this. He's getting older quite a bit. He's over 60. Because he was worn out in his work, he came to China to make a medical check-up. When I asked my acquaintances close to him about it, they told me he's in hospital. When leaders from the organizations in the border areas are hospitalized, the China side tend to perform the security for them." she said.

However, those close to the MNDAA and Chinese diplomatic circles said that Peng Daxun had been arrested was right.

During Operation-1027, the MNDAA captured nine towns including Chin Shwe Haw, Laukkai, Kon Kyan and Mongko where China-Myanmar border trade posts are located as well as Lashio where the Northeast Command of the SAC is located.

The China side is putting pressure on the MNDAA to stop waging battles in northern Shan State and China has cut out the flow of goods in the border areas since the last month and is demanding the MNDAA to retreat from Lashio.

CNI News

20 November 2024

The chairman of the State Administration Council who got back from China not long ago has made a plan to go to Russia, which might be because he didn't get as much as he wanted from China, made a comment military and political analysts. 

Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs commentator, said so to CNI News.

" It seems that he didn't get as much as he wanted from China because he wants to get back the territories captured by the northern allies. I think he can't get them back. The Haigen Discussion for ceasefire contained that northern allies must stop where they reached but not that they must give back the territories they have captured. He's not pleased with that, I think. So, it's likely that he'll go to Russia. And it seems that he want to show he has another country to depend on apart from China. It seems that he didn't get as much as he wanted from China. So, as soon as he got back from China, he conducted bombing more. Even though China told him repeatedly to discuss in a peaceful manner, he did so. He goes against China." she said.

While Chinese PM Li Chang was meeting with Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing on 6th November 2024

Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing went to China from 5th to 10th November 2024 and he separately met with PMs from China, Thailand, Laos and Cambodia and discussed about the issue of Myanmar, trade, economy, election, peacemaking, and so on.

Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing studied at least three factories that produce drone which is being widely used in the Myanmar civil war and discussed with Chinese businessmen as well. However, the Senior General had planned to go to Russia before going to China, said those close to the SAC.

Senior General's trips to foreign countries might support for solution of hard situations, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, an NCA signatory, Khun Okkar, told CNI News.

"Sr-General's trips to foreign countries is good. He can listen to pieces of advice from the foreign countries and facts pointed out by the foreign countries. He went to China. In any case, he could consider something. Some generals went to India. He could consider something. Again, he will go to Russia and Belarus. It might support  him to reconsider the policies regarding the whole country." he said.

While Russian President Putin was meeting with Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing on 7th September 2022

The trip to Russia might be the points relating to encouragement of peacemaking, cooperation and supporting the election, and as Russia is an ally of Myanmar, Russia would help the cases that should be performed, considered political analysts.

As Russia and China are all-round strategic partners, Russia might have the same strategies regarding Myanmar as China. 

The Senior General might go to Russia by reason of these strategies, pointed out military and political analysts.

The trip to Russia Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing will go soon will be the fourth one after 2021 and he will go to Belarus as well. 

President of Belarus reportedly has invited to come to his country.

CNI Interview 

19 Nov 2024

China, India and Thailand, Myanmar's neighboring countries are taking part in the issue of Myanmar more than before. 

China has already held meetings with the State Administration Council several times. 

Moreover, Thai PM Paetongtarn offered Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing that Thailand would help in the issue of Myanmar at the Great Mekong Sub-region Summit in Kunming, China where she separately met with the senior general.

CNI News interviewed Col. Khun Okkar, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, an NCA signatory about the above-mentioned situations.

CNI News            ။           ။ What could change in  politics, military and economy of Myanmar after chairman of the SAC returned from China?

Col. Khun Okkar ။             ။ We can't expect many things. In my opinion, political and economic problems must be firstly solved. If you want to contrast the war-frame,  you'll have to expand the political frame. If China discussed about expanding political frame, ways must be found to contrast war frame kind of.

I expect a big change will become before the end of this year or in six months to come about how to contrast the war frame or reduce armed conflicts. Some changes can take place in military and economics. Big changes won't happen in economy.

While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing with Chinese PM on 6th November 2024

CNI News            ။           ။ Thai PM and chairman of the SAC met in the Great Mekong Subregion Summit where Thai PM offerred that Thailand would help for the peace of Myanmar with a good will. So, what will happen from the offer of Thai PM?

Col. Khun Okkar ။             ။ Former Thai PM Thaksin, father of the current Thai PM, met with some stakeholders of Myanmar early this year to discuss about the peace of Myanmar. Next, when Laos takes the chairmanship of the ASEAN, it tries to call a forum regarding the peace of Myanmar but in vain. And Indonesia called a forum in October. 

When it invited the stakeholders from Myanmar, the representatives from the NUG and other organizations went to Indonesia, but the SAC didn't send its representatives there. 

But the forum didn't produce any good results. But if all the stakeholders attend the discussion that will be held in Thailand, in 2025 conflicts will decrease and official political dialogues will probably arise.

While Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing was meeting with Thai PM Paetongtarn on 6th November 2024

CNI News            ။           ။  What's opinion about how much Thai PM of the Pheu Thai Party has influence on EAOs and the NUG in Myanmar?

Col. Khun Okkar ။             ။ The conflict of Myanmar directly impact on Thailand, a neighboring country of Myanmar. Thailand has accepted those who came from Myanmar for many reasons. Myawaddy border trade route, the main Myanmar-Thailand border trade, has been entirely closed. 

Domestic conflict of Myanmar hurts Thailand most. So, Thailand is trying to find a way to solve the conflict. It goes without saying. Thailand needs to watch how much The SAC will accede to the Thai request. 

Meanwhile, China will cooperated with Thailand and next year, Malaysia will be head of the ASEAN. If the three countries cooperate as the third party for the peace of Myanmar, official political dialogues probably will arise.

CNI News            ။           ။ China has said it will help the election that will be held by the SAC. China wants the peace of Myanmar. The peace talks that will be led by China and the peace talks that will be led by Thailand - which one do you think will be able to be implemented first?

Col. Khun Okkar ။             ။ Thailand is carrying out first because it has made a plan for about three months. It seems that China will have to support Thailand because China has influence on the three northern allies. 

While seeing Myanmar EAOs

But it doesn't pay attention to Mon armed group, the KNU and other armed groups in southern part of Myanmar as well as Chin armed groups. There's no point distinguishing conflicts of half of the country. The discussion that will be held in Thailand in December will cover the whole country.

CNI News            ။           ။ Is it likely that all the stakeholders will attend the meeting that will be held by Thailand?

Col. Khun Okkar ။             ။ Mainly, we must watch whether the SAC will send its delegates to the meeting. The SAC didn't send its delegates when the opposition elements took part. When India invited, delegates and some EAOs went to New Delhi, but the opposition elements didn't go there. 

When Indonesia invited, the opposition elements went there, but Naypyidaw didn't send its delegates there. So, several informal meetings will have to be held kind of to make all the stakeholders take part in.

CNI Interview

18 November 2024

Even though the armed conflicts which arose shortly after Myanmar gained her independence has been over 70 years long, they still have been in full swing and so have political problems.

So, everyone is making an attempt to build a democracy based on federalism. However, some are asking a question why the federalism is important in order to resolve the armed and political conflicts. 

In relation to the above-mentioned situations, CNI News interviewed chairman of the People's Party (PP) U Ko Ko Gyi.

While those who attended the Myjayang Conference in July 2016

CNI News     ။          ။ What is the root cause of armed and political conflicts?

U Ko Ko Gyi ။             ။ Basically, it is the constitution crisis of our country. After the two tenures of the Hluttaw under the 2008 constitution, we found a lot of requirements and weaknesses in the constitution. 

While trying to amend the constitution, we have reached the current situation. Basically it is the federalism and democracy problem. I see it's mainly a political problem.

CNI News     ။          ။ If that's so, how can we end the root cause? As soon as the constitution is amended, can the armed and political conflicts end?

U Ko Ko Gyi ။             ။ We came back from India a few days ago after studying democracy and federalism there. 

India gained her independence consecutively together with Myanmar. But India has been amending its constitution if necessary up to now. We had three constitutions that were void. 

It's necessary to have good bases since the constitution is drafted. Whenever it's necessary to amend it, it must be amended. When the domestic armed conflicts are currently taking place, we need to carry out to make political means open."

When the Myanmar delegate went to India to study the constitution and federalism of India

CNI News     ။          ။ If the constitution is to be amended, which sections should be amended for the first time. Which sections do you think make the conflicts take place?

U Ko Ko Gyi ။             ။ It's been very complicated now. So, we have to be going on big amendments and matters that must be carried out in the long run. For the time being, we need to amend the matters relating to equal rights, division of power, division of finance and division of profits gained from natural resources.

 Another thing, it's necessary to arise elected village administrators. Again, the check and balance must be strong. For example, the election commission needs to be an independent organization and does the legal system. Moreover, we mainly need to attempt to reduce the corruptions, I think.

CNI News     ။          ။ Some says that as soon as the federalism is used in Myanmar, political conflicts can be solved. What's your opinion about it?

U Ko Ko Gyi ။             ။ Federalism is essential. But military conflict contains matters in relation to politics and businesses related to military as well as interests cases. So,  we need to tackle the problems relating to businesses while the basic political problem is being solved.

While Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and Chinese PM

CNI News     ။          ။ They says federalism is the best for Myanmar. Why? What about U Ko Ko Gyi?

U Ko Ko Gyi ။             ။ Conflicts have been taking place in a row since Myanmar gained her independence because points and promises that are included in the Panglong Agreement could not implemented. 

One is politically an ideological problem. At that moment, the armed movement of the Burma Communist Party was the biggest.

Later, ethnic armed groups emerged by reason of equal rights and federalism. And then, in 2021, armed groups related to democracy emerged. So, we have to solve the problems regarding democracy and federalism. 

And a basic point of political problems is the livelihood of the public. Because the economic problem could not be solved, dissatisfactions and politically based problems have mixed, I think.

CNI News     ။          ။ Why are there battles in some federal countries? For example, in Ethiopia, battles are breaking out again between the Ethiopian government and the Tigre People's Liberation Front. In India, there are separatist armed groups. Why do you think there are these things?

U Ko Ko Gyi ။             ။ If a political problem cannot be politically solved, it will lead to the military means. According to what we studied in India, there are about 2,000 races, 22 office languages, caste system and its problems and a wide gap between the rich and the poor. 

But armed conflicts are very few because of Indian political leaders. Institutions there are strong. But all the political institutions have been destroyed in Myanmar since the 1962 coup d'état. 

After the 8888 Uprising, political parties emerged again. But they haven't settled down. So, as long as military is strong, politics will still be weak. Only if the political framework can be widened, will the military framework be narrow.

While seeing leaders at the 8th Anniversary Celebration of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement

CNI News     ။          ။ Some countries which are are unitary unions or communist countries without federal states are wealthy and stable, for example China and Russia. Why do you think that"

U Ko Ko Gyi ။             ။  One thing is related to timing. Mainly, it's related to rationalism and far-sightedness. We went to China as well. Although there is only one party in China, it has many small groups. Moreover, there are separate groups which are not communist.

 First and foremost, there is the political stability. And leaders were able to push the country to reach on the path to development. We must beware of it, I think. If they tried to reform only when uprisings took place, it would be too late.

Chinese leaders were able to reform before the public blasted. They changed their economic system into market economy. Common farming system was changed into privately owned system. 

But public demonstrations that contained many students took place. Although there were sorrowful suppressions, generally speaking, far-sightedness, rationalism and the ability to change of Chinese leaders are important.

CNI News     ။          ။ As the last question, what do we need to do so as to end armed conflicts and the political conflict in Myanmar?

U Ko Ko Gyi ။             ။ If armed conflicts take place in a country, it's not just a domestic problem, foreign countries related to it will take part. So, when the armed conflicts are solved, illegal businesses and instigations of foreign countries will be experienced. 

So, solution of the problem with armed means can't produce good results. First, we need to conduct reformations bravely within the country. On the other hand, foreign policies than can support the domestic peace and stability need to be laid down. 

And informal political talks or secret discussions need to be held before official dialogues between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and armed groups currently waging battles, I think.