CNI News

17 December 2025

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the National Security and Peace Commission, said that the Myanmar Air Force is now able to deploy its forces to effectively cover and dominate the entirety of Myanmar’s national airspace.

He made the remarks in a speech delivered on December 15, 2025, at the ceremony marking the 78th anniversary of the establishment of the Myanmar Air Force.

The Senior General stated, “The Myanmar Air Force is now capable of being deployed to achieve effective control over the entire national airspace of Myanmar. In terms of capability, it has progressed from a counter-insurgency-level air force to being developed into a strategic air force.”

The ceremony commemorating the establishment of the Myanmar Air Force was attended by Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and his wife Daw Kyu Kyu Hla; Commission member and Prime Minister U Nyo Saw and his wife; Commission Secretary General Ye Win Oo and his wife; Commission member and Chief of the General Staff (Army, Navy, Air Force) General Kyaw Swar Lin and his wife; Commander-in-Chief of the Air Force General Htun Aung and his wife; Commander-in-Chief of the Navy Admiral Htein Win and his wife.

Also in attendance were retired Commanders-in-Chief of the Air Force and their wives, Union-level officials and their wives, senior Tatmadaw officers from the Office of the Commander-in-Chief and their wives, Commander of the Nay Pyi Taw Command, Air Base Commanders, and officers of the Myanmar Air Force.

CNI News
16 December 2025

Following reports that India and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA)—which has been cooperating with Spring Revolution forces seeking to overthrow the Myanmar Tatmadaw—had concluded a secret agreement, the Indian Ambassador to Myanmar, H.E. Mr. Abhay Thakur, met with the Chief of the General Staff (Army, Navy, Air Force) of the Myanmar Tatmadaw, General Kyaw Swar Lin.

The meeting took place on December 15, 2025, at the Bayintnaung Guest Hall in Nay Pyi Taw, where the Indian Ambassador held discussions with General Kyaw Swar Lin, who is also a member of the State Security and Peace Commission.

According to reports, the discussions focused on enhancing cooperation between the two countries’ armed forces to further strengthen border security, stability, peace, and the rule of law in border regions.

It was also discussed that Myanmar is one of the three countries that originally adopted the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence and has continued to firmly adhere to these principles up to the present. In addition, the parties discussed prospects for the emergence of more positive developments following the successful completion of a multi-party democratic general election in Myanmar, according to an official statement released from Nay Pyi Taw.

Meanwhile, Silicon Valley Time reported that a special investigative intelligence operation had uncovered a secret agreement between India and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA). The report stated that the agreement represents a strategic cooperation on rare-earth mineral extraction at a time when efforts are underway to weaken Myanmar’s sovereignty.

Based on satellite imagery and cross-border intelligence, it was confirmed that India is constructing a 365-kilometer-long road from Vijaynagar in Arunachal Pradesh to a rare-earth mining site in Chihpwi, Kachin State.

This road, reportedly constructed without the authorization of the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the government, would enable India to access rare-earth resources from Myanmar. In return, India would be able to provide the KIA with weapons, medicines, and other logistical support.

The partnership agreement is also said to include a secret plan to construct a second strategic road linking the KIA headquarters in Laiza through Sagaing Region to Rihkhawdar town in Chin State.

Following the emergence of reports alleging secret agreements between India and the KIA, Indian Ambassador Mr. Abhay Thakur and the Indian Military Attaché to Myanmar, Colonel Jaswinder Singh Gill, held discussions with General Kyaw Swar Lin, Chief of the General Staff (Army, Navy, Air Force).

CNI News

16 December 2025

As questions arise over why the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) has been unable to exert the same level of pressure on the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) as it has on other ethnic armed organizations, military and political analysts have been examining what makes the KIA distinctive.

At present, fighting has resumed between the Myanmar military and joint KIA–PDF forces in Kachin State, while clashes are also continuing in Sagaing Region.

According to U Khun Sai, who has been involved in peace processes, the KIA is distinctive not only because of its geographical position compared to other regions in Myanmar, but also because it is more skilled diplomatically than other armed groups. He told CNI News:

“The KIA has two or three distinctive features. First, unlike groups such as the ‘Wa’ that rely solely on China, Kachin State lies between India and China. This is a unique geographical position. In other words, it is something China must carefully consider before exerting full, one-hundred-percent pressure. Second, what distinguishes the KIA from most revolutionary forces is that although it is fighting Naypyidaw on one front, it is also constantly engaging in dialogue with Naypyidaw through intermediaries. It is understood that this intermediary role is played by the Peace Talks Creation Group (PCG), which has been active in Kachin State since around the 1990s. The KIA has always pursued this approach—fighting on one side while negotiating on the other. Third, while the KIA cooperates with the NUG and opposition forces, it does not do so officially as the KIO. Instead, it maintains peace as an intermediary framework and engages in joint cooperation through that channel. Because it does not take a position of completely opposing Naypyidaw one hundred percent like some other groups, it has greater room to maneuver.”

 KIA Vice Chair Lt. Gen. Gun Maw meeting with Chin Brotherhood

Currently, among ethnic armed organizations, the Brotherhood Alliance members—the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Arakan Army (AA)—as well as the Karen National Union (KNU), have been officially designated as terrorist organizations, while the KIA has not been so designated.

Moreover, since the Spring Revolution began in 2021, the KIA has grown stronger than before and has provided many revolutionary forces with weapons and ammunition, military training, and assistance for living arrangements. It has also supported joint operations in Sagaing Region and Kachin State.

According to Sai Htay Aung, Chair of the Tai-Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), revolutionary forces support the KIA because their own interests are being served. He told CNI News:

KIA Vice Chair Lt. Gen. Gun Maw meeting with former Chinese Special Envoy to Myanmar, Mr. Sun Guoxiang

“It is understood that during the Spring Revolution, the KIA has granted operating rights in Hpakant—such as jade mining rights—to revolutionary leaders, leaders of the Arakan Army (AA), as well as CNF and Naga armed groups. When tax collection rights are also granted, those groups have little choice but to cooperate with the KIA. If they do not, they would not receive such rights. From an economic and authority standpoint, the KIA maintains control.”

Military and political analysts have also pointed out that the KIA is striving for liberation across Myanmar’s northwestern regions, including Kachin State, Sagaing Region, Chin State, and Rakhine State.

At present, although there are already plans for talks between the Myanmar military and the KIA, the venue for such meetings has yet to be decided.

As a result, analysts note that if some form of accommodation can be reached between the KIA and the Myanmar military, China–India connectivity routes would be beneficial for Myanmar.

CNI News

16 December 2025

Military and political analysts have pointed out that in Myanmar’s ongoing peace process, it is necessary to reassemble individuals who have experience from previous peace negotiations, including those who have retired from active roles.

Ethnic armed organizations responded positively to the peace talks invitation extended by the Union Government led by President U Thein Sein. Subsequently, repeated negotiations were held with 15 ethnic armed organizations, resulting in the step-by-step signing of 39 agreements.

Beginning on November 18, 2013, the Union Peace-making Working Committee—comprising representatives from the government, parliament, and the Tatmadaw—and the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT) of ethnic armed organizations started discussions aimed at achieving a Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) acceptable to both sides.

U Ko Ko Gyi seen at a Peace Talk

Regarding peace negotiations, it is necessary to make continuous efforts to enable informal discussions rather than only formal, all-inclusive talks, and to gather experienced individuals with institutional memory, said U Ko Ko Gyi, Chair of the People’s Party (PP), in an interview with CNI News.

He said, “Even during times of armed conflict, communication channels can be maintained. Therefore, it is first necessary to rebuild communication channels among the various organizations—some through hotlines—to enable immediate contact. Before moving to inclusive, formal negotiations, there should be continuous efforts to hold informal discussions. It is also necessary to reassemble individuals with past peace experience and established traditions. This is because, in recent years, new generations of young leaders have emerged within various organizations. Meanwhile, many experienced peace negotiators have grown older or retired, so it is necessary to bring these individuals back together.”

Military and political observers noted that in implementing peace processes, there exist a wide range of perspectives, ideas, and approaches.

In Myanmar, whenever there is a change of government during peace-building efforts, personnel, policies, and institutions also change, leading to bottlenecks and disruptions in the frameworks built by successive previous governments.

Representatives of the Tatmadaw seen at a Peace Talk

U Ko Ko Gyi told CNI News that Myanmar is currently in an unavoidable situation when it comes to establishing a federal union.

He said, “Fundamentally, our country cannot avoid the necessity of building a federal union. Therefore, there are areas related to federalism that require reform. In discussions with India, there were many talks involving Tatmadaw officers, political party leaders, and ethnic armed organizations on fiscal federalism and power-sharing systems—using India as an example. We have also studied many examples from other countries. In relation to peace, we also have extensive experience from studying countries where peace has been successfully achieved. However, we believe priority should be given to handling practical, realistic solutions appropriate to the circumstances of each period.”

Military and political analysts further pointed out that peace processes cannot function unless the root causes of conflict—such as historical backgrounds, past events, ideological disputes, and political convictions—are taken into consideration.

At present, intense fighting is continuing between the Myanmar military and armed groups across the country, and peace processes have yet to be implemented in practice.

CNI News
15 December 2025

The Shanni Refugee Relief, Assistance and Humanitarian Organization (SRAHO) provided assistance on December 13, 2025, to civilians displaced by fighting in Banmauk Township, Upper Sagaing Region, who have been forced to flee their homes.

SRAHO delivered blankets, towels, and 5 million kyats in cash to displaced people from Banmauk Township who are sheltering in areas controlled by Brigade 614 of the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA).

Banmauk town was attacked in a joint offensive by the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Kadu armed group, and PDFs on September 15, 2025, and was subsequently seized on September 20.

Following this, civilians from Banmauk town and nearby villages fled their homes and escaped to the western part of Banmauk Township, an area controlled by SNA Brigade 614.

At present, around 5,000 people displaced by the Banmauk fighting are staying in SNA-controlled areas, and they are in urgent need of food, healthcare, blankets, and warm clothing.

Local residents said that neither the Sagaing Region government, the Union government, nor the international community has provided any assistance to these displaced people.

CNI News

15 December 2025

Political and military analysts are debating whether Myanmar’s 2025 general election could lead to a political transformation similar to the one that emerged after the 2010 general election.

In Myanmar, Phase (1) of the election will be held on December 28, 2025; Phase (2) on January 11, 2026; and Phase (3) in the final week of January 2026.

Political observers point out that public interest in the election remains low, as the majority of the public believes that no real change will occur because the post-election government is likely to be formed and led mainly by the Tatmadaw and the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP).

Dr. Aye Maung, Chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), told CNI News that the 2010 general election marked the first opening of the multi-party democratic electoral arena, and that the parliament and government that emerged afterward were able to bring about national changes through negotiation and consultation.

Demonstration of voting procedures

He said:“It could be a step toward the future with a clearer vision than the 2010 political landscape. In other words, it would include reforms along with transformation.We analyze the post-2025 election landscape as being even more advanced than before. Rather than moving forward under a single dominant party, it would emphasize national unity and national reconciliation, working seriously to break free from more than 70 years of internal armed conflict.It would aim toward a peaceful new state capable of ending the civil war, and, in other words, toward correctly building a federal democratic Union. That is what we expect from 2025, and we believe it is possible.”

Political analyst U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News that, compared with the 2010, 2015, and 2020 general elections, the upcoming election appears relatively calm. He added that if a large number of citizens turn out to vote, it may be possible to expect an outcome even more favorable than the 2010 political landscape.

He said:“As the election approaches, changes may still occur. If the public turns out in large numbers to vote, opposition forces could win a reasonable share.If that happens, we could hope for a political landscape that is even better than in 2010. Back then, we truly did not know what lay ahead. We only had the vague idea that some form of change might occur.This time, however, we already know quite clearly what is possible and what is not. How far we can push what is possible depends on how much success the opposition forces achieve in the election.Therefore, if voter turnout is high, we can expect to see a situation that surpasses the 2010 political landscape.”

 Senior General Min Aung Hlaing meeting with political parties

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, has stated that the 2025 general election will bring about a turning point for the country.

Meanwhile, members of the public have expressed the view that even if the post-election government is led by the Tatmadaw and the USDP, they would like to see it take the form of a national unity government.

On the other hand, political analysts warn that if the civilian government that emerges after the election is unable to effectively operate the administrative mechanism amid widespread and intense armed conflict, the country could once again find itself in a situation where it has to rely on the Tatmadaw.

CNI News

15 December 2025

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, said that the survival of a multi-party democratic system is extremely important in order to build a Union based on democracy and federalism.

He made these remarks on December 10, 2025, at the graduation parade ceremony of the 26th intake of officer cadets at the Defence Services Medical University parade ground in Yangon.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said that in building a Union founded on democracy and a federal system, it is important not to blindly copy the models of other countries, but instead to develop a form of democracy and federalism that is suitable for Myanmar’s own conditions.

He said:“Democracy is a system of governance chosen by the people. While it allows decisions to be made in accordance with the will of the majority, it is also necessary to give due consideration to the wishes of minorities.Federalism means sharing authority, power, and rights, and its essence lies in unity and harmony. In order to bring about a Union based on democracy and federalism, the survival of a multi-party democratic system is extremely important.”

He added that because elections are an indispensable process for the survival of a multi-party democratic system, the multi-party general election desired by the majority of the public will begin on December 28.

The Senior General explained that the upcoming election differs from previous elections in three key aspects. First, it combines the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system with a proportional representation (PR) system. Second, voting will be conducted using Myanmar Electronic Voting Machines (MEVM) with push-button operation. Third, the election will be held in phases depending on security conditions and administrative arrangements.

In Myanmar, Phase (1) of the election will be held on December 28, 2025; Phase (2) on January 11, 2026; and Phase (3) in the final week of January 2026.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing also stated that state power will be transferred to the political party that wins the election, and that the Tatmadaw will thereafter focus solely on its duty of defending the nation.

CNI News

15 December 2025

A political analyst told CNI News that for the Myanmar military to regain public trust, it must walk the path of reform and demonstrate tangible changes in practice as a corrective response to the developments that have occurred since 2021.

He said:“The government that emerges from the election will essentially represent political change. If it cannot demonstrate that there is a genuine desire to carry out reforms, then it will not gain public trust or support.How important public support is has already been shown in history during President U Thein Sein’s administration in 2012. It is extremely important. The same issue handled by a government that has public support versus one that does not will not receive the same public response.When a government with public support takes action, public reactions are different. For example, during the NLD government’s term, when electricity meter fees were increased despite already being low, there was no major backlash. But when a similar move was made during U Thein Sein’s administration, protests and public dissatisfaction erupted. That is clear evidence.The current armed conflict exists because the military seized power in 2021. Since that is the cause, it must be corrected. The military has to return to the path of reform. Only if it can demonstrate this in practice will the public regain trust.”

 Senior General Min Aung Hlaing meeting with political parties

At present, various analyses are emerging regarding the leadership of the government that will take office after the elections. Political observers believe that Senior General Min Aung Hlaing may continue to hold all three branches of power in their current form.

They also speculate that either U Khin Yi, Chairman of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), or the current Prime Minister U Nyo Saw could become president, while Senior General Min Aung Hlaing may continue to retain the position of Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services.

However, military and political analysts view that neither Senior General Min Aung Hlaing nor USDP Chairman U Khin Yi possess the same flexible attitude as U Thein Sein, nor are they likely to actively pursue reforms.

Political analyst Sai Mein told CNI News that if Senior General Min Aung Hlaing continues to concentrate all power in his own hands after the elections, the parliament will merely function as “water in the palm of his hand.”

Political parties during a meeting

He said:“After the 2010 election, most people were already able to predict who would become president, and it indeed turned out to be U Thein Sein.But with this election, led by the military, even one month before voting, no one knows who will become president. Most predictions suggest that the military leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, will himself become president, retain the position of Commander-in-Chief, and also remain prime minister—meaning all power would be concentrated in one individual.Even during Senior General Than Shwe’s time, he did not personally assume all leadership positions. Although he controlled power, he handed the presidency to U Thein Sein. But in the current situation, if one person controls everything, it is extremely concerning.Based on what we can observe, no matter how much the parliament is said to have changed, it will still be water in the palm of the military leader’s hand. There are analyses suggesting that the level of change may not even reach 50 percent of what was seen during the U Thein Sein era.”

Analysts further point out that even if a civilian government comes to power after the elections, if it is unable to operate the administrative mechanism normally amid widespread armed conflict, a situation in which power is handed back to the military could re-emerge.

The elections will be held in three phases—on December 28, 2025; January 11, 2026; and in the final week of January 2026. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has stated that state power will be transferred to the government that emerges from the elections.

CNI News
13 December 2025

In Myanmar, the parliament (Hluttaw) and the government have traditionally operated in a mutually dependent relationship in governing the country. As a result, questions have arisen as to whether the parliament’s role is to oversee and check the government or to protect it.

Myanmar is scheduled to hold Phase (1) of its elections on December 28, 2025. Phase (2) will be held on January 11, 2026, and Phase (3) will take place in the final week of January.

After the elections, the new government that emerges is likely to be led jointly by the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) and the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). Similarly, there is a strong likelihood that the parliament will also be dominated by the military and the USDP holding the majority of seats.

Because of this, many people are concerned that the parliament may end up functioning not as a body that checks and balances the government, but rather as one that protects it.

U Kyaw Htet, an independent candidate contesting in Dawbon Township, Yangon Region, told CNI News that if the post-election parliament operates as if it were part of the same group as the government, it could result in an ineffective and unclear political trajectory—an outcome that is cause for concern.

He said: “If a new government and parliament emerge after this election, it would mean that the legislative pillar is revived. If the government takes a wrong path, then the parliament should be able to step in and correct it. If more representatives who truly represent civilians and ethnic groups are elected, those voices will become louder. Since the voices in parliament represent the voice of the people, the government will not be able to force certain decisions and will instead have to negotiate and seek solutions. However, if the parliament moves forward as if it were part of the same group as the government, then the process becomes vague and ineffective. That is the worrying point. The government and parliament need to be distinct. We need clarity in the separation of responsibilities.”

The late Rakhine MP U U Hla Saw, who turned away from parliamentary politics and joined armed resistance

In Myanmar, the governments and parliaments that emerged from the 2010 and 2015 general elections developed a pattern of mutual protection. As a result, members of parliament from non-Bamar ethnic political parties experienced growing frustration with the parliamentary system.

Subsequently, some MPs even turned their backs on parliamentary politics altogether and joined armed resistance movements.

Dr. Nyo Nyo Thin, founder of the Yangon Watch Group, told CNI News that national leaders and politically farsighted figures must make advance preparations to ensure that Myanmar does not end up with a parliament that merely protects the government.

She said: “The responsibilities of parliament are to legislate, to check and oversee the government, and to represent the people. Oversight of the government is one of the most important duties of MPs. Parliament does not have a duty to protect the government; it only has a duty to oversee it. The task of protecting the government will be done by the government itself and by the Ministry of Information. Parliament’s responsibility is solely to provide oversight. To prevent the emergence of a parliament that protects the government, national leaders and politically farsighted leaders must prepare in advance. The public must elect MPs who are capable of holding the government accountable. After electing them, the public must continuously monitor their representatives. If MPs are seen as failing to represent the people, the public should hold them accountable. People should be able to protest and lodge complaints with relevant political parties. If MPs act improperly, the public should speak out. The public must continue to oversee parliament.”

During the dispute over voter lists following the 2020 general election, there were calls for an emergency parliamentary session to address the issue.

U Win Myint serving as Speaker of Parliament

However, as the National League for Democracy (NLD) held strong dominance in parliament and the parliamentary speakers were also NLD members, those calls were ignored and the government was effectively protected.

Subsequently, on February 1, 2021, the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) removed the NLD government, citing its attempt to form a government without resolving the 2020 election disputes, and seized state power.

After the military takeover, parliamentary politics disappeared, and the three branches of power—judicial, legislative, and executive—were concentrated in the hands of Senior General Min Aung Hlaing alone.

As a result, political parties and pro-democracy activists are now striving to restore parliamentary politics after the elections are held.