CNI News

27 August 2025

Despite the plan to hold elections in Myanmar, strong opposition movements mean that Myanmar citizens living abroad are facing a dilemma over whether or not to vote, according to political analysts.

The Union Election Commission (UEC) announced on August 21, 2025, that to cast advance votes, Myanmar citizens residing in foreign countries for various reasons must submit their personal information to the respective embassies.

Ko Naing Aung Aung, director of the Arakan Workers Organization, told CNI News that Myanmar migrant workers in Thailand have no plans to participate in the election and are not interested in voting.

"Myanmar migrants in Thailand have no plans to vote. They're not interested," he said. "These are not fair elections. So when we have to give our personal information to the military commission to vote, most migrant workers are worried. We see that the majority of migrant workers in Thailand aren't interested in this. They won't give their personal information for security reasons. As someone who works on behalf of laborers, I can say with 99% certainty that Myanmar people in Thailand are not interested in the current election that is being planned in Myanmar."

Myanmar citizens waiting to cast advance votes at the Myanmar Embassy in Bangkok, Thailand, during the 2015 election.

Some political parties inside Myanmar argue that it is unrealistic for one person to claim that overseas voters will not participate, questioning what surveys were conducted to support this claim. They believe this is just one person's opinion and cannot represent others. They point out that some overseas voters would like to vote but are hesitant due to fear of being ostracized or attacked by others, which makes their decision difficult.

The UEC has stated that the first phase of the election will be held on December 28, 2025, in 102 townships. On July 29, 2025, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing signed and enacted a law for the protection of elections.

U Htet Aung Kyaw, Vice-Chairman of the National Democratic Force (NDF) party, told CNI News that online voting would not be easy at this point. He added that people who do not provide their personal information will not be on the voter list, but he does not believe providing this information would hurt security.

People waiting to vote during an election within Myanmar

"For Myanmar people abroad, voting is only accepted at embassies. The area of a Myanmar Embassy is considered Myanmar territory," he explained. "They are only allowed to vote within that area. It would be inconvenient to set up ballot boxes in industrial zones where there are many Myanmar workers because those are Thai territories. So, Myanmar people in Thailand can only vote at the embassy. They would have to go to the embassy with their personal information to cast advance votes. The embassy would then inform the UEC about these advance votes. We have advocated for online voting to make it easier for both domestic and overseas voters. However, at this point, it seems it wouldn't be easy to implement online voting."

Due to security threats, the upcoming election will be held in phases from December 28, 2025, to January 2026. A state of emergency has been declared in 63 townships across some regions and states, and efforts are underway to restore peace and stability.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, has stated that power will be transferred to the winning political party.

CNI News

27 August 2025

The Karen National Union (KNU) issued a statement on August 26, 2025, calling the upcoming election in Myanmar a "sham" designed to select individuals and parties that serve the interests of the Myanmar Tatmadaw.

The Union Election Commission (UEC) has announced that the first phase of the election will be held on December 28, 2025.

The KNU stated that due to the newly enacted "Law on Protection from Disturbing, Hindering, and Destroying Elections" and amendments to the "Law on Protection of the Personal Freedom and Security of Citizens," which are intended to address public movements against the election, the people are now being forced to participate against their will, out of fear.

The KNU added, "The attempt to hold an election ignores the five-point consensus of ASEAN. It is a sham election meant to choose individuals and parties that benefit the military. Therefore, the participation of political parties in this sham election will hinder the future establishment of a new federal democratic system."

The KNU declared that it "absolutely does not accept" the general election being organized by the State Security and Peace Commission because it is legally invalid, does not allow for the participation of all citizens, and the results can be manipulated.

While seeing the KNU's statement.

The KNU also said, "This election is only for the longevity of the military dictatorship and is not a solution to the current political crisis. The election will not only intensify domestic conflict but also lead to continued instability in the region."

The statement further indicated that the KNU fully believes that the only way to end the deep-rooted political conflicts in Myanmar is through a genuine federal democratic union constitution that is drafted and enacted based on an inclusive political dialogue aimed at a long-term, lasting political solution.

The KNU urged the Karen people, Karen armed organizations, Karen political forces, and all political parties and the public to reject this election, which serves the military's interests, and to oppose it through non-violent means.

On February 1, 2021, the Myanmar Tatmadaw overthrew the NLD government led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, alleging that the government was attempting to form a new administration without resolving disputes over voter lists from the 2020 general election. The Tatmadaw then declared a state of emergency.

In response, some NLD leaders, parliamentarians, armed groups, democracy activists, and political parties resisted, attempting to overthrow the Myanmar Tatmadaw by armed means. The KNU, which is a signatory to the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), was also among these groups.

As a result, fierce battles are currently taking place between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the KNU in Kayin State.

CNI News

27 August 2025

Debate has emerged among military and political analysts on whether Myanmar’s Tatmadaw should set standards when inviting Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and other armed groups to peace talks.

At present, analysts point out that the Tatmadaw’s peace invitations—which include demands for armed groups to lay down their weapons and engage only in politics—have not been effective.

Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News that standards should indeed be set when inviting groups to peace negotiations, and the Tatmadaw needs to reconsider why its peace invitations have not worked so far.

“The Myanmar Tatmadaw has been consistently inviting groups with its six-point peace principles, but it hasn’t worked. They need to reconsider why it hasn’t worked. As for standards, yes, they should be applied among armed groups. But if the way standards are being applied is not working, then another approach should be reconsidered. This depends on the current situation. Peace is a long-term issue. If it is done based only on immediate circumstances, that’s not very good. I don’t want to give a specific opinion yet on exactly how standards should be set, but if standards are established with long-term national stability and peace in mind, that would be much better.” he said.

While seeing Dr. Aye Maung and armed groups

On September 26, 2024, the SAC had announced invitations for EAOs and People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) to abandon the armed path and resolve political issues through political means.

Furthermore, on June 25, 2025, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, at a peace forum in Naypyidaw, reiterated that peace was open to “terrorist insurgent groups including PDFs and ethnic armed groups.”

Dr. Aye Maung, Chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), told CNI News that while it is reasonable for the governing authority to set conditions and regulations when declaring peace and ceasefires, it must also seriously examine the underlying justifications for why armed groups are waging resistance before inviting them.

“Later, some restrictions were included. For example, armed groups are required to renounce extremist ideologies. They must also agree not to cut off civilian infrastructure such as roads and communications, and not to continue recruiting or mobilizing forces. These preconditions were tied to ceasefire announcements. If they kept mobilizing forces or recruiting, the Tatmadaw would retaliate. Such restrictions are common when ceasefires are announced. But at the same time, the government must thoroughly analyze why these groups took up arms in the first place. The political outcome should address those root causes. Only after preparing such a political resolution should the government invite them for talks.” he said.

Leaders of AA, TNLA, and MNDAA

Analysts also pointed out that since the governing authorities label some armed groups as “terrorist organizations” or “illegal associations,” this makes it difficult to officially hold peace talks with them. Therefore, they argue, such designations should be lifted.

Traditionally, when inviting armed groups, the Tatmadaw specifies what conditions, standards, and positions must be met for them to be accepted. In the past, for example, the Tatmadaw refused to accept AA, TNLA, and MNDAA on the grounds that they had no significant armed forces, no controlled territory, and no ongoing battles. They were told they could only participate in peace if they laid down their arms.

Later, however, when AA, TNLA, and MNDAA built up military forces, established controlled territories, and engaged in battles, the Tatmadaw shifted its stance—from initially refusing to allow them to sign the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), to later pressing them to sign it.

Currently, however, those groups are no longer interested in the NCA, instead pursuing arrangements that would give them greater power and authority than the NCA framework provides. Analysts cite this as an example of why standards should be carefully set.

CNI News

26 August 2025

The State Security and Peace Commission (SSPC) could hold peace talks with armed groups individually before the upcoming election, U Khun Sai, who is involved in the peace process, told CNI News.

During the Peace Forum, there were also proposals and discussions suggesting that peace implementation could be carried out by granting power-sharing arrangements to states and regions.

U Khun Sai, who is participating in the peace process, said that negotiations with armed groups might take place individually before the election.

“Right now, the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) has two parts. One part is the basic principles. That part will not change much. But in terms of implementation, in the past there were only 21 armed groups. Now there are hundreds, so a lot of adjustments will be needed. It will take time to include everyone. Otherwise, what can be done for now is to negotiate individually with each group. Another possible way, as was raised at the Peace Forum, is to discuss after granting responsibilities and power to states and regions. Whether these will happen immediately or easily is uncertain. At the moment, looking at the situation after the Peace Forum, peace talks before the election are more likely to be only with individual groups that are possible to engage with.” he said.

While a peace Forum was being held

Military and political analysts point out that under the current circumstances, it will not be easy to bring nearly all ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) together before the election.

Currently, peace initiatives and forums are being held only with the seven groups that have signed the NCA, while other ethnic armed organizations actively engaged in fighting are not participating.

Dr. Aye Maung, Chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), told CNI News that it is crucial to address and negotiate the fundamental reasons for armed resistance and political aspirations between both sides in order to achieve results.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing meeting with armed groups

“The upcoming 10th Anniversary Celebration of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement on October 15 will likely be celebrated in a grand manner. The SSPC is preparing for that. The coming election is set for December 28. The NCA of October 15 is a major agreement between the government and armed groups after independence. Whether it will endure long-term and whether both sides can negotiate to resolve the root causes of armed struggle and political aspirations—that is extremely important. On October 15, when all the armed groups come together, we want to see them producing answers for Myanmar’s political future.” he said.

It is reported that leaders of ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) who were involved in the original NCA drafting process will be invited to the 10th Anniversary event on October 15.

After the NCA anniversary, a Peace Forum is also scheduled to be held on October 16–17, according to military and political analysts.

However, assessments note that due to internal disagreements within some armed groups, it may not be possible for all to attend.

CNI News

26 August 2025

The Shan Human Rights Foundation (SHRF) announced on August 25, 2025, that there are 19 rare earth mines within the territory controlled by the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) in Special Region 4, eastern Shan State.

According to SHRF, satellite images taken on May 3, 2025, revealed the existence of 19 rare earth mining sites inside NDAA (Mong La Army) territory near the Mekong River in eastern Shan State.

“Satellite images captured in May 2025 show 19 rare earth mining sites under the control of the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA, also known as the Mong La Army) in Mong Yawn Township, at the easternmost part of Shan State. These sites are located less than 40 kilometers from the Mekong River.” said the foundation.

Most of these mines are located in mountainous areas about four kilometers from the Chinese border, at elevations of 4,000–5,000 feet above sea level. Water from this region flows into the Nap Stream, which continues southward into the Lwe River—a tributary of the Mekong River—according to SHRF.

It further stated that three of the mining sites are situated in the mountains south of the Lwe River, where water from the mines flows northward into the Lwe River.

In Myanmar, rare earth mining sites are found in Kachin State under the control of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA)—specifically in Panwa, Chipwi, and Momauk—as well as in eastern Shan State, controlled by the NDAA and UWSA (United Wa State Army).

The NDAA broke away from the Communist Party of Burma in 1989, signed a peace agreement with the Myanmar Tatmadaw, and its area was designated as Special Region 4.

CNI News

26 August 2025

The Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) has been accused by the State Security and Peace Commission's information team of destroying the world-renowned Goteik Viaduct. 

According to a statement released on August 24, 2025, the TNLA reportedly used a mine to blow up the bridge that morning.

The statement alleges that the TNLA, which is currently active in and around the town of Kyaukme in northern Shan State, planted the mine that destroyed the bridge. As a result, a 60-foot section of the bridge's steel truss, specifically between pier P-16 and abutment AB-2 on the Kyaukme side, was damaged.

The TNLA has denied responsibility for the destruction.

The Goteik Viaduct is located on the Mandalay-Lashio railway line, connecting the towns of Nawnghkio and Kyaukme in northern Shan State. It was built in 1899, completed in 1900, and began operation in 1903. The railway bridge is 2,260 feet long, stands 1,100 feet above sea level, and is 125 years old.

The accusations come amid ongoing clashes between the TNLA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw in Kyaukme Township.

CNI News

25 August 2025

A peace process participant, U Khun Saing, told CNI News that the Chinese government's pressure is greater on ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) than on the Myanmar Tatmadaw.

Leaders from the TNLA, SSPP, and MNDAA met with the United Wa State Army (UWSA) in Panghsang. According to a WSTV statement on August 20, 2025, the UWSA will no longer provide weapons and equipment to any armed groups.

Because of this, U Khun Saing said, Chinese pressure is significant on the ethnic armed groups. China's pressure on the Myanmar Tatmadaw is likely to be a request to de-escalate military tensions due to the upcoming elections.

He said, "I think the pressure is greater on the EAOs. There is one thing China can pressure the Myanmar Tatmadaw on, and that is to reduce military escalation because they have to hold elections. At the last Mekong-Lancang meeting, Mr. Wang Yi told the Myanmar Tatmadaw that what is needed now is peace. He said, 'Peace comes first, so strive for peace. Only when there is peace can you hold elections.' Secondly, he said to work for national reconciliation. And third, to work for social unity. I think they will also tell the opposition ethnic groups to reduce military tensions."

While UWSA, SSPP, MNDAA and TNLA were holding a meeting in Pansang on August 20, 2025

UWSA Deputy Chairman Kyauk Kaw Ann stated that they will not support any organization with weapons, equipment, or financial assistance for any reason. He also warned organizations not to disturb the Wa State by requesting weapons, equipment, financial aid, or other matters.

Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, an analyst on China-Myanmar affairs, told CNI News that the cessation of support could be a deal with the Myanmar Tatmadaw to prevent elections from being held in the UWSA’s region.

"What happened in the meantime is that the State Security and Peace Commission sent delegates to the Wa and Mong La regions to tell them to hold elections. I heard they refused, saying they couldn’t hold elections. Maybe that's why they made a deal. The SSPC wants their election to be legitimate, and they want it to be held in as many places as possible. But I heard that both the Wa and Mong La refused." she said.

Three leaders from TNLA, MNDAA and AA

The TNLA and MNDAA jointly carried out Operation 1027 and captured nearly 20 towns in northern Shan State and Mandalay Region. Afterward, China blocked the UWSA from selling weapons, ammunition, food, fuel, and medicine to the TNLA and MNDAA.

As a result, the TNLA became weak in weapons and had to withdraw from Nawngcho. Currently, they are waging a defensive war in the towns of Kyaukme, Hsipaw, and Mogok.

CNI News
23 August 2025

Military and political observers are questioning the reasons behind the Arakan Army (AA) fighting alongside the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) against the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA) in an effort to control the Indawgyi region, where the majority of the population is Shanni.

On August 16, 2025, about 200 KIA/AA joint troops began an offensive on SNA camps in the villages of Ma Mong Kaing and Maing Naung to gain control of the Indawgyi region.

After losing some of their camps, the SNA launched a counter-offensive on August 17, successfully retaking the lost camps.

U Sai Htay Aung, the chairman of the Tai-Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party, told CNI News that the AA might have joined the battle because the KIA requested military assistance. Another possibility is that the KIA granted the AA jade mining rights, which obligated them to join the fighting.

"The AA is an ally of the KIA, so they might have joined because the KIA requested military assistance. The KIA also reportedly gave the AA jade mining rights in areas they control, like the Hpakant region, which may have made their participation mandatory. Also, the AA attacked Ma Mung Kaing village on August 16th and then retreated on the 17th. We heard that the AA was the first to withdraw. If that's what the AA said, we're happy about it. The news we received is that they didn't want to fight their fellow ethnic group and were the first to withdraw. The SNA also maintained a spirit of brotherhood with other ethnic groups, so when the AA was the first to retreat, it showed that there's an ethnic brotherhood. So, there is no reason for us not to live in peace and harmony," he said.

The Indawgyi region

The AA is an Arakanese armed group that was founded by the KIA in April 2009 in Laiza, Kachin State. The AA's leaders still reside in Laiza. Since its founding, the AA has participated in joint operations with the KIA.

CNI attempted to contact the AA for comment on their joint attack with the KIA against the SNA in the Indawgyi region but was unable to reach them.

The Indawgyi region is located in Mohnyin Township, Kachin State, and is home to a majority Shanni population.

According to Indawgyi locals, while the KIA was in control of the region, they oppressed the local population in various ways, including going house to house to arrest and conscript young people and collecting taxes. In July 2025, the Shanni armed group, SNA, penetrated and took control of the Indawgyi region.

Currently, the KIA is fighting alongside PDF groups to attack the SNA in the townships of Banmauk and Homalin in the Sagaing Region, which are under the SNA's control, in an effort to seize those areas.

CNI News
22 August 2025

The Union Election Commission (UEC) announced on August 21, 2025 that political parties competing in the upcoming elections in Myanmar are now permitted to carry out their campaign activities.

The first phase of the election in Myanmar will be held on December 28, 2025.

The remaining phases will be held in January 2026.