CNI News

25 June 2026

Domestic and international political circles are assessing the significance of China's role in Myanmar's peace process under the new government led by President U Min Aung Hlaing.

China wields significant influence over the United Wa State Army (UWSA), National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), Shan State Progress Party (SSPP), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and Arakan Army (AA), and has been mediating to facilitate peace talks between them and the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw). Similarly, China has been urging the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) to hold talks with the Myanmar military.

Military and political analysts point out that although China's influence over all armed groups is not absolute, these groups rely on China for weapons, ammunition, rations, and fuel. Therefore, in the long run, they cannot survive independently without ties to China.

Political analyst Dr. M Kawn La told CNI News that Myanmar's peace process largely depends on the actions of neighboring countries sharing its borders, and that the new government should engage in detailed peace negotiations with both China and India.

 The meeting between UWSA and NSPNC

"The peace process depends heavily on the actions of the powerful nations bordering us. Our peace process is highly contingent on them. For example, if India takes decisive and strict action, the CNF won't be able to survive, and it will also become difficult for the AA to sustain itself. Similarly, if China acts decisively on this side—say they just cut off a single weapons supply route or block ration routes required to wage war—it won't be easy for border-based armed groups to sustain themselves or fight a battle. We need to reflect on the answer to where these weapons come from. Therefore, neighbors are extremely important in the peace process. If we genuinely want peace, the government must engage in detailed negotiations with China on how to move forward with peace talks, as well as detailed negotiations with India. They are likely already doing this, but I am just projecting. Any government leading the country must inevitably do this. If we are genuinely heading toward peace, this is a top-down task—work that must be done from the top. That means it's an action for the superstructure, while the infrastructure has its own separate tasks to fulfill. These must be implemented politically. These are the broad dimensions we have to consider, and that's what I want to highlight," he said.

Military and political observers point out that while China genuinely wishes to see peace in Myanmar, it is also playing a strategic game on another front. They note that China is positioned to continue intervening in Myanmar's internal affairs by leveraging its influence over ethnic armed groups.

Currently, intense fighting continues between the Myanmar military and various armed forces, leaving peace processes stalled and unimplemented. The civil war in Myanmar has persisted since the country gained independence on January 4, 1948, up to the present day.

Political analyst U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News that Chinese pressure on ethnic armed groups is exceptionally critical for the peace process.

The meeting between SNA and NSPNC

"Whether it was during Deng Xijun's visit or Wang Yi's visit, when it was pointed out that raw materials were entering the ethnic armed groups from the Chinese side, China halted those flows. There were instances where they completely closed border gates and cut supplies. Under those conditions, even the Wa forces visibly slowed down their momentum, as did all the other armed groups. So to put it simply, China is the key factor. China's movements are the most critical. Following that, how the Wa react and subsequently how other ethnic groups respond becomes even more significant. Based on what we saw under that scenario, all other armed groups toned down their operations. This shows heavy Chinese pressure. Since China sent a clear signal that it cannot accept instability in a neighboring country right along its border, the landscape changed visibly for everyone. That much is quite obvious," he said.

President U Min Aung Hlaing has extended an invitation to Myanmar's ethnic armed groups to engage in peace talks before July 31, 2026.

Following this, the new government's National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) held separate meetings in Nay Pyi Taw with the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA) on June 4, 2026; with seven NCA-signatory armed groups on June 9 and 10; and with the Shan State Progress Party (SSPP) on June 12.

Similarly, the NSPNC held dialogue with China-border-based groups, meeting the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) in Mong La on June 17, and the United Wa State Army (UWSA) in Pangsang (Pangkham) on June 18.

CNI News

25 June 2026

Since China's and India's projects in Rakhine State differ not only in their markets but also in their operations, the Arakan Army (AA) can maintain smooth relations with both superpowers, military and political analysts told CNI News.

Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs analyst, told CNI News that if the AA can systematically ensure that the projects of both China and India are not disrupted, things will be fine, and it could help the group secure a certain degree of recognition on the international stage given the current political landscape.

"Geographically, among the groups that do not need to rely heavily on China, the AA has its own population base. It also shares a border with neighboring Bangladesh. Therefore, unlike the MNDAA and TNLA, the AA does not have to blindly follow what China says. China is also practical; it handles its relations with groups it cannot fully control from a slight distance, advising them only as much as it can. The AA is capable of maintaining balanced relations with both sides. From the very beginning, there has been no conflict between the Kyaukphyu Deep Sea Port and the Kaladan River Basin projects. Each project operates independently on its own path. They are not competing for the same market. This is because China's Kyaukphyu Deep Sea Port is intended to export goods from its inland provinces like Yunnan and Guizhou to the Middle East. On the other hand, India's Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project is meant to transit its own domestic products through Myanmar to Thailand and other ASEAN countries. There is absolutely no reason for conflict between them; they are on separate tracks. As long as the AA manages this systematically, it is fine. It is not a market rivalry. Furthermore, I recently heard that Bangladesh intends to engage in discussions with both the AA and the State Administration Council (SAC) regarding the repatriation of refugees to Rakhine State. This would mean the AA is gaining a distinct foothold on the international diplomatic stage," she said.

 The projects being implemented by China and India in Myanmar

The two major strategic projects in Rakhine State are China's Kyaukphyu Deep Sea Port and Special Economic Zone (SEZ), and India's Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project.

Currently, the AA not only commands military dominance over a vast amount of territory but also manages local stability and the administrative machinery, operating effectively like a governing body.

Since China is a powerful neighbor that wields significant influence over the Northern Alliance groups, the AA has officially declared that it will protect Chinese economic interests and will not disrupt them. Similarly, military and political analysts note that China understands the practical necessity of dealing directly with the AA—the force exercising actual control on the ground—to ensure the safety of its investments.

On the other hand, since the AA controls Paletwa and northern Rakhine areas where India’s Kaladan project is located, the Indian government is in a position where it must inevitably negotiate with the AA to move the project forward. In tandem, the AA has publicly stated that its doors are always open to building relations with India.

Kachin politician U Gwan Gaung Aung Kham told CNI News that instead of relying entirely on either China or India, the AA is more likely to employ a strategy that balances between the two heavyweights.

 AA Leader General Twan Mrat Naing

"The AA's geopolitical positioning naturally dictates this approach. China is set on executing the Kyaukphyu Deep Sea Port. Politically, the Rakhine people will have to engage and deal with China regarding this project. On the other hand, since India's Kaladan project also coexists, they will have to maintain engagement with India as well. Therefore, success will depend heavily on how skillfully the AA can politically navigate its engagement with both nations.Typically, whether it is India or China, they prefer to engage more officially with the sitting government. However, the AA's situation is unique compared to others. It is highly possible that both China and India will come forward to engage with them directly. Rather than viewing this as a potential misstep, it all comes down to how effectively their diplomatic stance can yield positive outcomes for them," he said.

Military and political analysts assess that since both projects can bring job opportunities and local economic development to the Rakhine people, the AA is more likely to prioritize showcasing peace and stability rather than disrupting the projects, using this as leverage to gain political capital.

Meanwhile, Myanmar President U Min Aung Hlaing visited India from May 30 to June 3, 2026, where he held talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He subsequently visited China from June 15 to 19, 2026, for a meeting and discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

CNI News

25 June 2026

Military and political analysts point out that ending armed conflict and achieving peace and stability in Myanmar could be difficult if there is no equality among ethnic nationalities. Achieving equal rights and full self-determination for all ethnic groups in Myanmar is a crucial factor for national stability and peace.

Ethnic leaders and political analysts highlight that inequality and human rights violations are the root causes of conflicts across various states and regions.

Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai-Lai (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party, told CNI News that a federal system is vital to achieving equality for all ethnic nationalities, and that the Union government needs to implement democracy and federalism in accordance with the law.

"According to the principles agreed upon at the 21st Century Panglong Conference, the country is slated to transition toward a democratic and federal system. The 43-point agreement negotiated between EAOs (Ethnic Armed Organizations) and political parties cannot simply be submitted directly to parliament. We must convene a conference, and the decisions made at that conference must then be submitted to parliament; this has already been laid out following the NCA (Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement) roadmap. Therefore, if this country is to move toward democracy and federalism, power must be devolved to ethnic nationalities in line with federal practices. This requires negotiation and discussion on which sectors the Union will handle, and which sectors will be handed over to ethnic groups to develop their own regions and secure their own domains based on the rights they desire. A federal system is essentially the key to ensuring equality for all ethnic groups. If a federal system can be implemented stably, all ethnic nationalities will be satisfied. I would like to say that the Union government needs to legally implement the democratic and federal system that all ethnic nationalities long for," he said.

Former ethnic armed leaders and retired military leaders

Military and political analysts point out that Myanmar’s civil war originated from ethnic demands for equality, self-determination, and federal democracy. Therefore, fulfilling the rights and political aspirations that ethnic nationalities yearn for is the primary key to peace.

Sai Htay Aung told CNI News that the current civil war in Myanmar began with ethnic issues, and that if the Union fairly grants what ethnic groups desire, the internal armed conflict could be extinguished.

"The government side needs to be patient. Among the demands made by ethnic groups, there are certain points where the government must take bold risks and concede. The civil war in Myanmar started with ethnic issues. Because of this, if the Union looks at what ethnic groups want and concedes what it can—rather than tightly gripping onto rigid policies—I believe the flames of civil war can be put out," he said.

Political analyst U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News that ethnic groups in the country currently harbor a sentiment that the Bamar (Burman) majority is suppressing them.

Ethnic armed groups and political parties

"If we look back at how this issue came about, ethnic groups have been talking about equal rights and such throughout successive eras. It is not that the ruling governments and the civil servants running the state machinery intentionally suppressed ethnic groups; rather, it stems from corruption. For instance, in departments like Immigration, civil servants engage in corruption regardless of whether someone is Bamar or an ethnic minority.However, ethnic minorities feel this deeply in their hearts. Since the majority of civil servants are Bamar, it creates a perception that the Bamar are oppressing them. In reality, everyone suffers under the same systemic issues. But since the country lacks development, the cultivation of a shared national identity remains somewhat weak. The government should look at examples like China or Singapore. If we can properly establish a good governance and administrative system, things will smooth out," he said.

Currently in Myanmar, the ruling party and the Myanmar military desire to build a Democratic Federal Union, whereas non-Bamar ethnic armed organizations and political parties want to build a Federal Democratic Union.

Depending on the nuance between these terms, the exact system under which the country will be built remains uncertain, leaving the future of ethnic equality equally ambiguous.

Military and political analysts emphasize that regardless of which union system is constructed, sustainable peace can only be achieved when all ethnic nationalities receive political representation and equal rights. Without ethnic unity, building a stable nation will remain impossible.

CNI News

 24 June 2026

Military and political analysts are raising questions over how the government will manage and what kind of rights it will grant to Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) that are striving for autonomy by using the United Wa State Army (UWSA)—the strongest EAO with full self-determination and self-administration—as their benchmark.

Under Myanmar’s 2008 Constitution, a total of six areas were designated: one Self-Administered Division and five Self-Administered Zones. The "Wa" region holds the official status of a Self-Administered Division.

Because the UWSA exercises full self-determination and total self-administration over all Wa territories—often described as a miniature state within Myanmar—other EAOs desire a similar political status. The Arakha Army (AA), which controls 14 out of 17 townships in Rakhine State as well as Paletwa Township in Chin State, has officially declared its intention to secure a political status no less than the "Wa" model, or to move toward a confederation status.

Ethnic armed leaders

Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai-Lai (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party, told CNI News that if ethnic armed groups emulate the "Wa" model and the authority of the Union fails to apply to them, it could pose a severe threat to the Union in the future.

"Right now, the 'Wa' have achieved a confederation status that goes beyond federalism. They handle their own local defense and manage their own judiciary. Because the Wa manage everything independently, other ethnic groups look up to them. This is not a good sign for the Union. If other ethnic groups and armed organizations follow the same path and the Union's authority ceases to have effect, it could pose a major danger to the Union in the future. The reason ethnic groups admire them is because the Wa enjoy total independence in their governance. However, the Union must maintain a balance. To prevent other regions from turning into a 'Wa' model while steering the country toward a federal system, we must play a game of give-and-take based on what the Wa want, ensuring that the Union's authority still reaches the Wa region. It is not surprising that other ethnic groups admire them, given how the Wa region has developed through self-management. However, I view this as a potential danger to the Union," he said.

Sai Htay Aung added that since parliament has now emerged in Myanmar, the situation should be navigated by negotiating what the Wa desire versus what the government can feasibly grant.

"What the Wa want can be debated in the newly formed parliament. Following those debates, if we can work out how much the state can concede and to what extent the Constitution can be amended, I believe the Wa region will become a state integrated within Myanmar's borders. Consequently, other ethnic groups' fascination with emulating the Wa model will diminish," he said.

Military and political observers point out that granting self-administration to the "Wa" was viable due to specific factors: its location on the Chinese border, its financial power, manpower, weaponry, and its capacity to securely control the region. They note that other states and regions lack such a tightly knit and compact organizational structure.

Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs analyst, told CNI News that since groups like the Wa, Mong La (NDAA), and MNDAA have secured their respective territories in Myanmar, other organizations are now striving to achieve the same.

Myanmar President U Min Aung Hlaing and the NDAA

"The 'Wa' region has already become like an autonomous state. The same goes for Mong La and the MNDAA; they have secured their own territories. Other organizations are trying to achieve the same outcome. To make that happen, all of us need to unite and launch harder offensives against this military. Only then will we have bargaining power, and only then will they make concessions. Up until now, they haven't conceded an inch. Looking at the rhetoric of (U) Min Aung Hlaing and other military generals, they still seem to calculate that they can win," she said.

Currently, although the Wa region is designated as a Self-Administered Division under Section 56(f) of the 2008 Constitution, the central government holds no authority over the territory, and the United Wa State Army (UWSA) administers it as an independent entity.

Political analyst Dr. Aung Myo told CNI News that granting other ethnic groups the same rights as the Wa is inappropriate, and that groups are acting this way only because national unity has fractured.

"The current status of the 'Wa' is inappropriate. That is no longer federalism; it has become a confederation. Rights should certainly be granted—they should be more than what is currently offered, but not to the extent of the 'Wa' model. It should fall somewhere in between. They are acting this way only because national unity has fractured in the country. Honestly speaking, the Wa population is only about the size of Hlaingthaya Township. They enjoy this status because they are basking in the reflected glory of Myanmar's strategic importance; they should realize this. The threat to national security exists because they are trafficking and selling black-market weapons instead of fighting. If the state takes decisive action against them, they will collapse. In reality, ethnic groups must be granted cultural freedoms and a reasonable degree of resource management," he said.

The UWSA independently manages all administrative processes across the entire Wa region, including military and political affairs, the judiciary, healthcare, education, economy, customs, and immigration.

Meanwhile, KIA leader Lieutenant General Gun Maw has previously stated that beyond 2025, ethnic groups will begin considering options that go past federalism. He also noted that to secure Kachin State, they must intercept the enemy from Sagaing Region, pointing out that the "Triple-K" operation (Kanbalu-Kawlin-Katha) is being executed in Sagaing to liberate the entire northwestern corridor of Myanmar (Kachin-Sagaing-Chin-Rakhine).

Similarly, KNU (Karen National Union) Chairman Padoh Saw Kwe Htoo Win has stated intentions to establish an autonomous "Kawthoolei Karen State," while the Kokang army (MNDAA) is striving to build an autonomous Special Region. Furthermore, the TNLA is working toward establishing a Ta'ang (Palaung) State, while the SNA and NDAA are actively pushing to secure their own self-administered zones and states.

CNI News

June 24, 2026

Military and political analysts are closely observing what kind of political shift could result from the recent dialogue held between the government's National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) and two Shan armed groups, the SSPP and SNA.

The NSPNC held its first peace process discussion under the new government with the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA) in Nay Pyi Taw on June 4, 2026. Following that, on June 12, the committee went on to hold a separate meeting with the Shan State Progress Party (SSPP).

While some analysts interpret these meetings with Shan armies as an attempt by the Myanmar military(Tatmadaw) to contain the KIA (Kachin Independence Army), Shanni political parties and political analysts point out that the engagement focuses strictly on local stability and securing a Shanni Self-Administered Zone.

Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai-Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party, told CNI News that the discussions with the SNA covered the official recognition of the Shanni ethnicity alongside the acquisition of a Shanni Self-Administered Zone. Meanwhile, talks with the SSPP centered on regional stability, combating online scam operations (locally known as *Zha Pian*), and preventing cooperation with other armed groups. He noted that these meetings represent a promising prospect for peace.

Representatives from the Shanni Nationalities Army - SNA

"Regarding the meeting with the SNA, our analysis suggests that it will likely lead toward achieving a self-administered zone. As for entering the NCA (Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement) stage, it is more likely they won't accept it. In the case of the SSPP, the focus was visibly placed on regional stability—addressing online scams and urging them not to partner with other armed organizations. The SSPP responded that conflicts should be resolved through peaceful means rather than fighting, which is positive for peace.
However, we didn't see any discussions regarding the ethnic national rights agenda during the talks with the SSPP, so we can't tell exactly what course the state intends to chart. Since the primary focus was on peace, it's fair to say it bodes well for the region. The situations for the SNA and SSPP are different. The SNA stands as a national army for the Shanni people. Since the name 'Shanni' is not yet officially recognized by the state, the first step is to secure that official status. Once officially recognized, I believe the state might well consider granting them a self-administered zone," he said.

Khun Tu, a resident of Myitkyina in Kachin State, told CNI News that the Shanni Self-Administered Zone currently demanded by the SNA and Shanni civilians is historically a Shanni region, making the demand fully justified. He explained that the SNA is pursuing official government recognition because Shanni communities are currently facing oppression and bullying by the KIA.

The meeting between SSPP and NSPNC

"This development has nothing to do with the KIA. The SNA operates on its own path and convictions, aiming to secure autonomy and statehood. While people say the KIA is bullying us, historically speaking, the territories we are claiming are indeed Shanni lands. To this day, the names of towns, villages, creeks, canals, forests, and mountains are entirely Shan names. Because these areas were designated as Kachin State under the Panglong Agreement, we lost a great deal of our rights. Although the country gained independence, our people live like servants to the KIA, forced to pay taxes. Right now, in the Indawgyi region, they are demanding 300,000 Kyats per household and 20 baskets of paddy per acre of land. Living under such heavy taxation means we are a people stripped of our freedom. Therefore, I believe the SNA is making these demands to gain official government recognition so that we can be free. It is not connected to the KIA," he said.

Historically, the Shanni people have inhabited a vast geographic footprint across Upper Myanmar, including Homalin, Khamti, Kawlin, Wuntho, Htigyaing, Pinlebu, Indaw, Banmauk, Katha, Kalay, Tamu, Mawlaik, Phaungbyin, Mohnyin, Mogaung, Bhamo, Indawgyi, Myitkyina, Waingmaw, Sinbo, Talawgyi, Hopin, Lonekhin, Hpakant, and Momauk.

The Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA), Shanni political parties, and the Shanni public are actively striving to consolidate these areas to form either a Shanni State or a Shanni Self-Administered Zone.

Meanwhile, circles within Shan politics point out that Shan armed groups, Shan political parties, and the Shan people as a whole should build internal unity to successfully strive toward ethnic equality and the establishment of a federal union.

CNI News

24 June 2026

More than 6.3 million students in Myanmar have left school campuses and are missing out on educational opportunities, according to a report released by ISP Myanmar.

ISP Myanmar stated that basic education enrollment for the 2026–2027 academic year stands at 6.7 million, an increase of around 600,000 compared to last year.

"Estimating based on data from the 2019 and 2024 censuses, the school-age population eligible for basic education should be around 13 million," ISP Myanmar noted. "Therefore, in a single academic year, more than 6.3 million people have lost access to basic education."

Furthermore, matriculation exam numbers—a critical milestone for pursuing higher education—dropped drastically from over 900,000 candidates in 2020 to only around 250,000 in 2026, according to ISP Myanmar's data.

"On the other hand, the administration of U Min Aung Hlaing has stated that it will allocate a larger budget to the education sector," ISP Myanmar reported. "The state budget allocation for education was 6.03% in the 2024–2025 fiscal year, and is projected to be 6.92% in the 2026–2027 fiscal year. It is also stated that the budget will increase by no less than 10% in the coming fiscal year, with plans to reach up to 20% within his five-year tenure. However, it is noteworthy that current spending on education has not yet returned to the 8.07% level spent during the 2020–2021 period."

On February 1, 2021, the Myanmar military ousted the NLD government, taking power under the claim that the government attempted to convene parliament without resolving disputes over the 2020 general election voter lists.

Following the takeover, nationwide anti-coup protests and armed resistance emerged. Concurrently, pressures arose calling for teachers to join the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) and urging students to boycott or drop out of school.

As a result, students have lost their access to education, a crisis further compounded by continuous displacement due to ongoing armed conflict.

CNI News

24 June 2026

Given the current geopolitical landscape, it is not easy for the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) to push China aside and form a partnership with India, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs analyst, told CNI News.

"The KIA is very shrewd. They won't just blindly follow everything China says, but cutting out China to align with India is also highly unlikely. Geographically speaking, they are directly connected to China. Disobeying China on certain matters is one thing, but completely switching sides to deal with India is a different story. Moreover, India cannot offer the KIA the kind of opportunities and access that China currently provides. Therefore, rumors of the KIA engaging in secret dealings with India are likely just intentional leaks designed to pressure Beijing—a tactical move to ease some of China's pressure on them. The KIA leadership is quite clever. They control rare earth mineral sites, but the catch is that these deposits are located right along the Chinese border. Furthermore, rare earth extraction and refining are incredibly hazardous to the environment. China has established dominance in this tech and infrastructure for decades, making them very difficult to replace. Even if you look at the G7 statements, they express a desire to reduce dependency on China for rare earths, yet most countries are reluctant to handle the actual processing due to the severe environmental toll. Since China has invested in this for over 20 years, buying from them remains the easiest option. Thus, it is highly improbable that the KIA can extract and sell rare earths through a partnership with India," she said.

 Rare earth mining activities by the KIA

In December 2025, the US-based *Silicon Valley Times* reported that a special investigative intelligence report uncovered a secret agreement signed between India and the KIA. According to the reported terms, India would gain access to Myanmar’s rare earth resources, and in return, would supply the KIA with weapons, medical supplies, and other logistical aid. The partnership allegedly included a covert plan to construct a second strategic highway connecting the KIA headquarters in Lizha, passing through the Sagaing Region, all the way to Rihkhawdar in Chin State.

However, military and political analysts point out that because China directly borders Kachin State and holds major investments there—including rare earth mining, the suspended Myitsone Dam project, power plants, and agricultural businesses—the KIA essentially has no choice but to maintain relations with its powerful neighbor. While the KIA avoids direct confrontation with China and routinely pledges to protect Chinese economic interests, they also cleverly employ stalling and negotiation tactics to avoid giving in to Chinese pressure when it compromises their military objectives.

On the other hand, India has openly upgraded its security and military ties with the official government of Myanmar, relying heavily on the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) to secure the border and suppress insurgents operating out of Northeast India. Since India shares no direct border with the KIA and traditionally views the group with suspicion as a Chinese proxy, analysts believe it is highly unlikely the KIA would seek India out as a primary ally. Instead, observers note that the KIA is focusing its attention on territorial military advantages and cooperating with PDF forces in the Sagaing Region, which sits close to the Indian border.

The leaders of China and India

Political analyst Dr. M Kawn La told CNI News that because the KIA primarily controls the rare earth production zones, handling resource trade through peaceful means will inevitably lead back to involving both China and India.

"When it comes to rare earths, we eventually need to have Government-to-Government (G-to-G) talks with both China and India. But for that to happen, these mining areas must first come under our official administration. There are still many stages and a mountain of work left to reach that point. We have to consider two options: pursue a peaceful settlement, or let the conflict be decided conclusively on the battlefield. Fighting to the bitter end means heavy casualties and massive collateral damage, so a peaceful approach is obviously better. How we navigate that will inherently tie back to China and India. We need to think deeply before taking action on these matters. Right now, these resources are just fueling the war. If we shift our mindset to view these resources solely for national development, our entire approach will change. Currently, the operations involve small-scale Chinese companies. The major corporations don't dare to come directly because it would ruin their reputation; the small companies don't need G-to-G agreements because it’s illegal mining. This is the work of rogue miners. Eventually, larger companies buy the illicit materials from them. Once the rare earths are refined and enter the supply chain step-by-step, it becomes an official export. Understanding that entire supply chain is critical," he said.

The leaders of China, Myanmar, and India

Military and political analysts view Myanmar as the ultimate geopolitical crossroads between two Asian giants, China and India.

China's major strategic projects traverse Rakhine State, Magway Region, Mandalay Region, Shan State, and Kachin State—corridors where armed groups like the UWSA, MNDAA, TNLA, SSPP, KIA, AA, and various PDF forces operate. Meanwhile, India’s key infrastructure initiatives, such as the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, cut through Rakhine State, Chin State, and Sagaing Region—areas active with the AA, CNF, CDF, SNA, alongside Naga and Kathe (Meitei) armed factions.

CNI News

24 June 2026

Domestic and international political circles are closely monitoring whether new self-administered zones for ethnic groups could emerge in Myanmar under the new government led by President U Min Aung Hlaing.

Back in 1958, ethnic minorities legally possessed a high political status within the Union, which included rights to autonomy and secession. Following that, under the 2008 Constitution, Myanmar designated a total of six areas: one Self-Administered Division and five Self-Administered Zones.

Among them, the Wa ethnic group obtained the status of a Self-Administered Division, while the Naga, Pa-O, Danu, Palaung, and Kokang ethnic groups were granted status as Self-Administered Zones. However, because these exist merely as self-administered zones in name without full self-determination and genuine autonomy, ethnic groups have been demanding the right to establish truly independent self-administered zones.

Political observers point out that the emergence of new self-administered zones largely depends on how much the Constitution can be amended through coordination between the government and parliament, as well as the efforts of the National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC).

Given the current landscape, there could be three to four states where new self-administered zones might emerge, and constitutional amendment issues related to these matters are more likely to shift past 2027, political analyst Dr. M Kawn La told CNI News.

ethnic youths

"Right now, the Shanni are showing a bit of movement, making it a strong possibility. There could be others too. For instance, groups like the Lahu—they have an EAO (Ethnic Armed Organization) and have signed the NCA (Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement). So, a Lahu zone could emerge. Additionally, in Kachin State, the Lisu have a People's Militia Force (PMF), and the Rawang also have political demands. Therefore, there are currently about three or four areas with a history of political conflict where either Special Regions or Self-Administered Zones could emerge. The question is how well these three or four groups can negotiate politically and how far the Constitution can be amended. Will it involve amending Schedule 3 of the Constitution, or adding more Self-Administered Divisions? Currently, it is unknown whether these matters are included in the 43-point agreement discussed between the NSPNC and political parties. There are rumors that those 43 points will be submitted and debated in parliament. However, within this five-year government term, I think this issue will move forward only after 2027," he said.

Furthermore, Dr. M Kawn La added that he does not believe new self-administered zones will be added within the current five-year term of the government.

"The SNA (Shanni Nationalities Army) has met with the NSPNC, and some Shanni individuals have voiced their opinions. They have their own political aspirations. However, according to the Constitution, an ethnic group must make up at least 51% of the population. The region must not cross boundaries between different states and regions. Furthermore, sub-regions are not allowed to make additional demands within an existing mother state. There are restrictions like these. Another factor is the required demographic threshold. If they meet these criteria, and if parliament deems it appropriate to grant, and if the NSPNC also agrees, then constitutional amendments could happen. So, could they increase? Yes, they could. If the Constitution can be amended, they will increase; if not, they won't. I don't think they will increase within these five years. The target cannot be shifted to this matter just yet. I think Union-level matters will be discussed first. Once political stability is achieved in the next five-year term, I foresee this issue being addressed," he said.

ethnic youths

Currently, ethnic groups such as the Shanni, Lahu, Lisu, and Akha are making demands through dialogue and meetings to be designated as self-administered zones or states.

Political analyst Dr. Aung Myo told CNI News that there is a particular prospect for a Shanni Self-Administered Zone to emerge in Kachin State.

"Self-administered zones could emerge, especially in Kachin State. It was already agreed in the 1947 Constitution that the KIA (Kachin Independence Army) must absolutely not have the right to secede. That's why areas where Kachins are not the majority—such as the Bhamo region, the Ayeyarwady river basin, and along the railway lines—were included for them back then. Population-wise, the Shan and Bamar outnumber them. Since the KIA became greedy and started talking about a 'Wunpawng State' and so forth, mainstream politicians have developed a strong dislike for them. Furthermore, all the troubles started with the KIA. Therefore, regarding Kachin State, everyone supports the creation of a Shanni Self-Administered Zone. A Lisu Self-Administered Zone is also highly possible. For these reasons, such models are more likely to emerge on the Kachin State side," he said.

Current Self-Administered Areas in Myanmar: Kokang: Comprises Konkyan and Laukkai townships in Shan State.
Palaung: Comprises Namhsan and Mantong townships in Shan State.
Danu: Comprises Ywangan and Pindaya townships in Shan State.
Pa-O: Comprises Hopong, Hsiseng, and Pinlaung townships in Shan State.
Naga: Comprises Lahe, Leshi, and Nanyun townships in Sagaing Region.

Meanwhile, the Wa ethnic group has obtained the status of a Self-Administered Division by combining Hopang, Mongmau, Panwai, Nahfan, Metman, and Pangsang (Pangkham) townships in Shan State.

CNI News

23 June 2026

Despite Myanmar being rich in natural resources, it remains a poor country. Furthermore, questions have been raised among the public as to why the ethnic regions where these natural resources originate are experiencing a lack of development.

In non-Bamar ethnic state regions, healthcare, education, economy, electricity supply, and living conditions for the public are not only underdeveloped but are also deteriorating year after year.

Daw Saw Mra Rar Zar Lin, Chairperson of the Arakan Liberation Party (ALP), told CNI News that this situation is due to regional instability and armed conflicts, which force money to be spent only on battles, leaving them unable to carry out regional development.

"In the past, Myanmar was famous as an 'Asian Tiger'. However, after gaining independence, civil war came along with it. Battles are happening everywhere. If battles are ongoing, peace cannot be achieved. A country can only develop when there is peace. Only with peace will international investment flow into Myanmar. International visitors will know more about Myanmar when they visit, and when tourists arrive in different areas, locals can generate funds, among various other benefits. For that to happen, peace needs to be achieved as quickly as possible. A country will develop only when it is peaceful. If it is not a peaceful country and battles continue, I see that the people of Myanmar will face many difficulties. The reason for the lack of development is that a vast amount of money and human resources have to be used in battles. Revolutionary organizations also have to spend the money they obtain on battles. The state government also has to spend an enormous amount of money on the war. Therefore, I want to say that it delays and slows things down immensely," she said.

Hakha town in Chin State.

Although it is said that regional development is lacking due to armed conflict, self-administered zones like Naga, Danu, and Pa-O—where no active battles are taking place—are also found to be weak in development.

Political analysts pointed out that because these zones are located within Shan State and Sagaing Region, they only receive financial allocations through the budget shares of Shan State and Sagaing Region, and they do not receive governing authority commensurate with being a self-administered zone, making them unable to carry out development projects.

Furthermore, it is known that under successive past governments, tenders were invited to construct dirt roads in the Naga Self-Administered Zone using regional funds, but no companies purchased the tenders due to the difficult transportation access within the region.

This is because the Naga region experiences heavy rainfall and is a difficult area for transportation, making it impossible to travel on roads during the rainy season to transport project materials. Communication difficulties when presenting completion percentages also cause delays in withdrawing funds, leading to numerous obstacles in conducting operations.

A political analyst also told CNI News that the underdevelopment is due to political instability, government instability, the occurrence of armed conflicts, and the weakness of the rule of law.

Some residential houses are seen beside the Kaladan River.

"The main thing is state stability and peace. When talking about state stability and peace, it includes all aspects. Speaking of stability, a government that comes into power through elections also needs to have the capacity to accept changes resulting from elections. This is also stability. Another thing is for armed conflicts to cease. And another thing is the need for the rule of law," the analyst said.

Experts point out that the primary requirements for the development of most regions in Myanmar are political stability and the cessation of armed conflicts. It is also essential to actively support and promote the education and health sectors, transportation, basic infrastructure, technology, and vocational sectors.

Currently, due to armed conflicts in Myanmar, the country is found to be the least developed nation among the 11 ASEAN countries.