CNI News

20 August 2025

Regarding meetings among ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), some groups have not been able to meet because they fear that their donors may disapprove, said Col. Khun Okkar, Chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), in an interview with CNI News.

When arrangements were being made for a meeting among the ten EAOs that have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), some groups avoided attending out of concern that their donors might be displeased. He added that if they were to invite the seven northern EAOs that have not signed the NCA, it would be even more difficult.

“We, the seven NCA signatory groups, have been making efforts. For a long time, we have been saying that the EAOs should meet and discuss the country’s future. Preparations have also been going on for a long time. But when we cannot create a common ground position, then a meeting cannot happen. For example, ten years ago in October 2015, eight groups signed, and in 2018, two more joined, making ten signatories in total. Even now, these ten groups are not united. If we say, let’s hold a meeting just among these ten, even then, two or three of them are going their own way with their donors and their own agendas. That’s why we can’t meet. If we meet, they worry their donors might get upset. Because of that fear, some groups are unable to meet. So, if we try to invite the seven northern non-signatory groups, it will be even harder. That’s why there may be a need for intermediary organizations to build mutual trust and facilitate meetings. Since EAOs are already struggling to meet even among themselves, mediators might be necessary.” said Col. Khun Okkar.

While seeing President Thein Sein with EAOs when the NCA draft was confirmed

The 7 EAO Alliance (seven ceasefire signatory groups), has laid out a “five-point federal democracy transition process” regarding Myanmar’s political future.

One of these points is guidance on strengthening unity among all EAOs to contribute to the building of a future federal democratic union.

However, as more EAOs have emerged in recent years, gathering them together before the election period will not be easy, said Col. Saw Kyaw Nyunt, spokesperson for the 7 EAO Alliance, in an interview with CNI News.

“It is really not easy to bring all EAOs together. Even during the NCA negotiations, there were already more than 20 EAOs. And now, under the unusual political situation of the past four years, more armed groups have emerged. So, with elections coming in December and January, if none of our five proposed processes can be initiated, then gathering all EAOs and uniting them will face many difficulties and challenges.” he said.

While seeing Col. Khun Okkar and  other EAO representatives

At present, peace processes and forums are conducted only with the seven NCA signatory groups, while EAOs actively engaged in fighting on the ground are excluded.

EAOs that signed the NCA, along with the government and the military, have already agreed to build a democratic federal union, and political parties have also accepted this.

However, since the political upheaval following February 1, 2021, some EAOs have gone beyond federalism, calling instead for confederation or even the creation of entirely separate, independent states.

CNI News

20 August 2025

As Myanmar’s election is scheduled to be held later this year, everyone is closely watching what kind of government might emerge after the vote.

The Union Election Commission (UEC) has announced that the election will take place in December 2025 and January 2026.

According to Col. Khun Okkar, Chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), a party that wins around 30% or 40% of the votes has the possibility to form the government. Otherwise, only a coalition government will be possible.

“Since the military already holds 25% of the seats in every legislature and government body under the 2008 Constitution—state Hluttaws, state governments, the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw, and the Union government—any winning party needs to secure at least more than 25%, ideally 30–40%, to have a chance of forming a government. If not, then only a coalition government will be possible, depending on the percentage of seats each party wins. Parties will have to be represented in government and Hluttaw accordingly. That’s why, after the election, it could turn into a coalition-style government. And if no one wins more than half, then three or four parties might have to join together to form the government.” he said.

Political parties meeting with one another

U Htet Aung Kyaw, Vice Chairman of the National Democratic Force (NDF), also told CNI News that if no party can secure 25%, then it is possible for the military to lead the formation of the government:

“We still don’t know which parties will actually contest and how much support they will get. Because of that, candidates will compete for the Hluttaw seats, and only after nominations are filed will it be easier to estimate which parties might have the advantage. But what’s certain is that the military already has 25% guaranteed. That also means the vice president position is secured, along with three ministerial positions. If no party wins a clear majority and seat distribution is fairly close, then it could go two ways—either the parties will negotiate among themselves, or they will negotiate with the military. Since we still don’t know how many seats each party will win, it’s too early to say what form the government will take. For example, if one party only wins about 10%, another wins 20%, and another wins 15%, then the military could take the lead in forming the government.”he Said.

In the upcoming election, major popular parties such as the National League for Democracy (NLD), the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD), and the Arakan National Party (ANP) will not be participating.

Political parties seen 

Political analyst Dr. Myo Set Hswe told CNI News that the next government is essentially already pre-arranged:

“In my view, the next government is already predetermined. I think it’s already formed in principle. It should be what they call a ‘stakeholder government,’ with representatives from different groups who are deemed eligible to participate. But the leadership and leadership structure have already been decided in advance. They already have a plan and have even chosen who the president will be.” he said.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the National Defense and Security Council, has stated that power will be handed over to whichever political party wins the election.

However, both domestic and international diplomats point out that the upcoming election will be merely symbolic, and that regardless of the results, the outcome will only produce a military-led government.

U Ko Ko Gyi, Chairman of the People’s Party (PP), also stated that the election results will not be allowed to go against the military.

CNI Article 

19 August 2025

Myanmar was established on January 4, 1948, when the diverse ethnic nationalities united to gain independence from British colonial rule. However, today there are differing views on whether the current Myanmar is the First Union or the Fourth Union.

Some believe that the First Union was during King Anawrahta’s reign, the Second Union under King Bayinnaung, the Third Union under King Alaungpaya, and that the Fourth Union began when General Aung San and the ethnic nationalities gained independence from the British on January 4, 1948.

On the other hand, some—particularly non-Bamar ethnic nationalities—hold that the independence gained on January 4, 1948, by General Aung San together with the ethnic nationalities marks the founding of the First Union.

Therefore, when building a federal union in Myanmar, non-Bamar ethnic nationalities argue that it should be a “Coming Together Federalism” system (where different groups voluntarily join to live together), while the Tatmadaw, NLD, and USDP insist it should be a “Holding Together Federalism” system (where unity is maintained within an already existing state). These different perspectives make it difficult for Myanmar to truly become “We Are Myanmar.”

Furthermore, disagreements also exist over the term Myanmar itself.

Article 450 of the 2008 Constitution stipulates that the Myanmar language is the official language. Since “Myanmar language” and “Myanmar speech” refer to the Bamar language, many interpret that “Myanmar” essentially means “Bamar.” Therefore, if one accepts the notion of “We Are All Myanmar,” it may implicitly mean “We Are All Bamar.” This makes it difficult for non-Bamar ethnic nationalities to embrace the concept of “We Are Myanmar.”

Additionally, although independence was officially said to have been achieved by all ethnic nationalities together, some argue that, in practice, it was mainly the Bamar who gained it, thereby weakening the shared ownership of independence.

This also contradicts Article 3 of the 2008 Constitution, which states that the country is one inhabited by all ethnic nationalities together.

Thus, for non-Bamar ethnic nationalities to genuinely accept the idea of “We Are Myanmar,” those who govern the country and those implementing peace must find ways to address this issue.

For example, in India, violent communal clashes between Hindus and Muslims after independence led to the partition of India and Pakistan. Afterwards, Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru campaigned for everyone to embrace the idea of “We Are India – We Are All Indians.”

In their unifying efforts, Gandhi and Nehru ensured the separation of religion and politics, equal rights for Hindus and Muslims, legal protection against discrimination, and constitutional guarantees of equality for all ethnic groups.

Similarly, the United States, despite being built more on immigrants from across the world than on its native peoples, succeeded in uniting everyone under “We Are American.” This was possible because of a constitution that enshrines equality and prohibits discrimination.

Likewise, India’s “We Are India”, America’s “We Are American”, and Singapore’s “We Are Singapore” identities were all built upon inclusive constitutions guaranteeing equality and non-discrimination.

Therefore, for Myanmar to become “We Are Myanmar,” it must adopt a new constitution that ensures equality, fairness, and non-discrimination for all ethnic nationalities—one that everyone can accept. Otherwise, it may be difficult for “We Are Myanmar” to take root, and in the worst case, even the existence of Myanmar as a nation could be at risk.

In any case, we'll have to wait and see how the future of the country in which we now live will emerge.

CNI News
18 August 2025

Since the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) launched an offensive on the Indawgyi region in Mohnyin Township, Kachin State, battles are breaking out between the KIA and the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA), said locals.

The fighting reportedly began on August 16, 2025, after the KIA launched an offensive on the villages of Ma Mohn Kaing and Maing Naung in the Indawgyi region.

" The clashes are taking place in the hills of Maing Naung and Ma Mohn Kaing, as well as in the village of Ingyin Kone. A combined force of KIA/KPDF troops has arrived in the east bank of and in the village of Nant Yin, with the intention of attacking Hopin." said a local resident.

Reports suggest that the KIA and KPDF have deployed a combined force of around 200 troops to take control of the Indawgyi region and the villages of Ma Mohn Kaing and Maing Naung. The Indawgyi region is primarily inhabited by the Shanni ethnic group.

Local residents claim that when the KIA previously controlled the area, they often arrested locals from their homes, recruited, and collected money.

They also said that the KIA granted businessmen permission to mine for gold on the school grounds and football stadium in Ma Mohn Kaing village. When locals protested these actions, some were reportedly arrested.

The Shan Nationalities Army (SNA) began operating in Kachin State to protect the Shanni ethnic group and other Shan communities. In July 2025, the SNA advanced into the Indawgyi region and subsequently took control of Nam Mon and Ma Mohn Kaing villages. The current KIA-PDF offensive is to regain control of this territory.

CNI News
August 18, 2025

On August 18, 2025, U Than Soe, Chairman of the Union Election Commission (UEC), announced that the first phase of the multi-party democratic general election for each parliament will be held on December 28, 2025.

UEC announced that the dates for the upcoming sessions will be announced later.

CNI News

August 14, 2025

Military and political analysts point out that ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) should be given guarantees through constitutional amendments in order to persuade them.

They note that recent meetings of Spring Revolution armed groups at the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) headquarters in Laiza could intensify the military situation and also impact on holding elections.

Political analyst Dr. Myo Set Thway told CNI News that since EAOs have consistently demanded constitutional amendments, they must be persuaded through these amendments.

“We need to go down the path of exercising separation of powers. Those who deserve to take part in this division of power should be included. Even now, as much as possible, steps should be taken. But what the EAOs are demanding is constitutional amendment. According to the law, such amendments cannot be done outside of the Hluttaw. In the peace process, however, it’s not only about constitutional reform—issues like resource-sharing and power-sharing are also included. All of these must be addressed through constitutional amendment and negotiation. And to achieve that, once the Hluttaw is in place, the next government must put it into effect.” he said.

While ethnic armed groups were holding a conference

During July and August 2025, several Spring Revolution forces—including the Chin Brotherhood (CB), Karenni National Defense Force (KNDF), Yaw Army, Myingyan PDF, NUG ministers, and Naga armed groups—met with the KIA leadership in Laiza.

Three months after Myanmar gained its independence on January 4, 1948, a civil war broke out and has continued up to the present.

Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party, told CNI News that the disclosure of such meetings at the KIA headquarters—which should have been kept secret—raises questions about whether it was revealed for political purposes.

While seeing Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and ethnic armed groups

“Yes, as long as armed groups keep operating, Myanmar will never achieve peace. When such news about meetings at KIA headquarters comes out, although it should have remained secret, we must consider whether it was revealed for use somewhere else—as a political card. Likely after the elections, under the new government. And that new government needs to be firm in principle but flexible in approach. In Myanmar, only when armed conflicts end can ordinary people live in peace and pursue livelihoods. At that point, if parliament makes decisions to gradually reduce and eliminate armed groups, that would be a way toward peace. It would mean using a mix of approaches—political, legal, and military—to persuade the armed groups to stand down. That, I believe, is the path forward," he said.

Currently, EAOs and Spring Revolution forces are demanding: the removal of military dictatorship; abolition or amendment of the 2008 Constitution; establishment of a federal union; strengthening of democracy; resource-sharing and power-sharing in governance.

Some EAOs are even demanding a confederation status, separate independent territories, self-determination, and self-administration, and are waging war against the Myanmar Tatmadaw to achieve what they want.

While EAOs continue to fight for greater autonomy, Commander-in-Chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has urged them to present their demands through the Hluttaw rather than on the battlefield.

CNI News

18 August 2025

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that the State Security and Peace Commission should emphasize and cultivate an open-door policy and inclusivity.

Wang Yi made these remarks during a meeting with Foreign Minister U Than Swe at the 10th Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Anning City, Yunnan Province, on August 14, 2025.

Wang Yi said, “We hope that Myanmar will continue to maintain reconciliation and cooperation. It should adopt an open and inclusive attitude and focus on winning the hearts and minds of the people. It should successfully implement three objectives through an election. The first point is domestic peace: to cease fire and govern the nation according to the will of the people. The second point is national reconciliation: to build the broadest possible unity. The third point is social harmony: to carry out post-earthquake reconstruction and economic development to improve the standard of living of the people.”

Although Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi used the term "all-inclusive," he did not specify which organizations or individuals should be included.

The Myanmar and Chinese delegations are seen during their meeting

Military and political analysts suggest that Wang Yi may have been pointing out that opposition forces with public support, such as the National League for Democracy (NLD), the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD), and the Arakan National Party (ANP), should be allowed to participate in the upcoming election that Myanmar is preparing for.

They also speculate that he might have been indicating that the door should be opened to lifting international sanctions by releasing detained politicians who have popular support.

Foreign Minister U Than Swe stated, “Myanmar has lifted the state of emergency and is actively preparing for the general election to be held at the end of this year. We will strive to hold the election in a peaceful, stable, smooth, and credible manner.”

He then added that he would like to invite a Chinese delegation to observe the election.

The Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, has stated that the election in Myanmar will be held in December 2025 and January 2026.

However, political parties with public support and democratic forces that are not participating in the election are demanding that an all-inclusive dialogue be held to reach a political agreement before the election takes place.

CNI News

18 August 2025

Military and political analysts say that if both the ruling class and those waging armed revolution in Myanmar can achieve their desires and have political guarantees, the situation could change.

Armed organizations are striving to gain administrative control over their territories, and because each is acting as its own sovereign, the war must continue. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has stated that armed groups should make their demands through the Hluttaw.

Colonel Khun Okkar of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S) told CNI News that if both sides calculate that the people of the states will suffer, and if they can both obtain what they want with political guarantees, the situation could change.

He said, “In any case, if military conflict and violence escalate, it is the local people of the states who will suffer. With that calculation, the political course can be changed if they choose to. However, it’s not about changing course after admitting defeat and suffering losses. If both sides can get what they want and have guarantees for their political rights, then it is possible the situation could change. Since the system is dominated by the military, if we want to transition to democracy and if ethnic groups want equal rights, transitioning to a federal system through political or peaceful means would cause the least harm. With armed means, it's very difficult to achieve a 100 percent sudden change, completely overturning the entire system. Given the country's condition and traditions, it is very difficult.”

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and the RCSS Chairman General Yawd Serk

Currently, armed groups in Myanmar are demanding the establishment of democracy, the building of a federal union, and a reduction in the military's dominance.

Some Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) are fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw with demands for confederal status, the right to establish separate independent territories, and the rights to self-determination and self-administration.

Among the armed groups, the KIA (Kachin Independence Army) is the most politically astute. They are currently seen trying to gain an advantage over the Myanmar Tatmadaw by releasing photos of meetings with Spring Revolution forces, according to U Htet Aung Kyaw, Vice-Chairman of the National Democratic Force (NDF) party, who spoke to CNI News.

The NSPNC and 5 NCA-S EAOs

He said, "We cannot succeed by trying to eliminate each other. For us, politics is about turning enemies into friends. Because we are people who genuinely want to implement the policy of moving forward in unity, we truly support negotiation and dialogue, no matter with whom. The recent meetings at the KIA headquarters with other groups can be seen as an offer to the government that they are willing to discuss and negotiate. By doing this, it shows their political shrewdness among the armed groups. It is primarily increasing its bargaining power. When it comes to discussions, it can show that it has these assets. It can show that if it provides more support to these groups, this side ( the Myanmar Tatmadaw) will become more unstable, that it has these weapons, these hidden cards. However, it will discuss, it will negotiate. I see the release of these photos as a way for it to gain more bargaining power."

During July and August 2025, Spring Revolution forces—including the Chin Brotherhood (CB), Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF), Yaw Defence Force, Myingyan PDF, NUG ministers, and Naga armed groups—gathered and held discussions with the KIA at their headquarters.

CNI News

18 August 2025

Military and political analysts told CNI News that the Arakan Army (AA) does not need to consider China's wish in the same way as its brotherhood allies, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA).

At a press conference on August 11, 2025, AA spokesperson U Khaing Thukha told the media that unlike the situation where Lashio city was handed over to the Myanmar Tatmadaw due to Chinese pressure, they have no intention of handing over territories.

Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs analyst, told CNI News that China's main pressure is to reopen border trade, and due to its different geographical location from Kokang and Ta'ang areas, the AA can remain independent of China.

She said, "The geographical situation is different. Geographically, they can stay clear of China. That's why they don't have to fear Chinese pressure much. In reality, China's main pressure is its desire to open border trade. Therefore, the MNDAA and the Ta'ang, which are at the border, have to open border trade for their economies to function. That's why they had to open it. Over there [in Rakhine], what pressure can China exert? The Kyaukphyu deep-sea port issue has been guaranteed by the AA from the beginning. They have already guaranteed that nothing will happen to it. That's why China cannot exert any pressure on them. They don't need to be too concerned with China's interests."

A crossroads in Rakhine State

Furthermore, AA spokesperson U Khaing Thukha stated at the press conference that there are some different background conditions between the AA and its brotherhood allies, and therefore, it is less likely that they will hand over towns.

He told the media that the AA has currently seized over 90 percent of Rakhine State and will continue to march forward to achieve its set goals.

U Myo Kyaw from the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA) told CNI News that as China is a major power not only for Myanmar but for the world, its pressure will, to some extent, affect the AA.

He said, "Regarding the pressure, China is a global superpower. Its pressure can affect not only our country, Myanmar, but also the revolutionary forces and revolutionary armies within Myanmar, just as its influence extends to ASEAN countries. When a major power like China uses its strength, even many countries in the world cannot withstand its influence to a certain extent. Therefore, we are aware that there will be some level of impact."

Currently, the AA has captured 14 townships, including Paletwa in Chin State, with only three towns—Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung—remaining [under junta control in Rakhine].

Among these remaining three towns, fighting with the Myanmar Tatmadaw has been intense in Kyaukphyu. It is understood that the AA has currently halted its offensive, switching to a defensive posture, and the military situation has become quiet.