CNI Articles

By- Chit Min Tun

19 May 2025

There are over 190 countries in the world, some hold elections and some do not. Similarly, there are countries with political parties and some do not. 
For example, countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Brunei do not hold elections and do not have political parties.

However, most countries have elections and political parties. So in countries that have elections, what kind of conditions do their citizens analyze before they vote? After studying how they vote, in Myanmar, too, a voter should consider what fundamental reasons they should vote for.

While the SAC is preparing to hold elections in Myanmar in December 2025 and January 2026, on the other hand, armed opposition groups are preparing to prevent the elections from being held. Myanmar citizens are caught between two situations: whether to support holding elections or whether to support blocking elections.

Therefore, rather than discussing whether or not an election will take place, I would like to focus on the factors that a voter should consider and decide if an election were to be held in a country.

Party policies and objectives
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 It is necessary to carefully study the policies of the parties on health, education, economy, social affairs, foreign affairs, democracy, federal affairs, peace, youth affairs, etc. It is also necessary to study whether they have such policies.

You should also consider whether these policies are consistent with your beliefs and values.

You should also examine whether the party's goals are realistic and beneficial to the country.

The party's capabilities and experience
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 If the party had been in government before, we must study what kind of performance it had shown, how it had treated the public, whether it had been able to develop the country, whether the citizens had become poor and they had become rich, etc. We must also study and consider these situations.

Then, we must consider whether the party's leadership and members are qualified (meaning both politically and practically) and capable of working effectively for the country.

Similarly, whether the party's organizational structure and operations are stable and effective must be considered.

Candidate's qualifications and character
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 It is necessary to study the educational qualifications, work experience, political knowledge, and social activities of the candidate running in your constituency.

We must consider whether the candidate is a person of good character and morals who can represent the people. We must consider whether he or she is capable of doing one thing during the campaign and another thing when he or she becomes an MP.

Then, it is necessary to analyze and examine whether the candidate's speech and actions are credible.

If the election is held using the party list system, voters will no longer have the opportunity to know the candidate and will only have to vote for the party. Therefore, they should consider whether the party is a party with factional politics or patron-clientelism before choosing whether to vote or not.

Similarly, we need to consider whether it is a party that is increasingly centralized or a party that allows candidates to freely serve the public interest. Furthermore, when party interests and public interests clash, we need to look at whether the party is protecting party interests or the party is protecting the public interest.

Those who provide funds for the party and Party funding
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 You should consider whether to vote or not by knowing who supports the party, who controls it behind the scenes, who it works for, and how its funds are managed.

It is necessary to check whether the party's funding is transparent. It should not be forgotten that some people use the party to seek personal gain and use their influence unscrupulously to obtain funds.

Then, one should consider whether the interests of the party's supporters and the forces behind it have an influence on the party's policies.

Information acquisition and critical thinking skills
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 Information about parties and candidates can be obtained from official sources and impartial news outlets.

Then, during the campaign, it is necessary to listen carefully to their statements and use the information they provide to make decisions using common sense and reason.

It is also necessary to monitor the activities and statements of parties and candidates on social media (Facebook, TikTok, YouTube, Telegram, Instagram).

Your interests and the future of the country
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 One should decide whether to vote for a party only after considering their personal interests as well as whether it can contribute to the long-term development and future of the country.

Furthermore, we must consider which party's policies are best for the country.

The party that the people of Myanmar currently need is (1) a party that can stop the civil war, (2) a party that can bring about internal peace, (3) a party that can help reverse the economic downturn, (4) a party that can strengthen the democratic system, (5) a party that can lead the construction of a federal union, (6) a party that can restore the disintegration of national unity, and a party that can bring the education system up to international standards. 
In addition, (7) a party that can achieve equality for citizens, (8) a party that can protect the people from troubles caused by those in power, (9) a party that can bring health services up to international standards, (10) a party that can create job opportunities for the youth, (11) a party that can keep up with modern technology, (12) a party that is willing to empower the youth, (13) a party that can reform the highly centralized government system, (14) A party that can change to become a government that is free from corruption and can provide smooth public services; (15) A party that can properly correct the legal system that is based on money; and (16) A party that has a high understanding of media relations and media freedom.

Therefore, voters need to make sure their votes are the right choice. If they make the wrong choice, they will have to survive within the system that has not been reformed.

The government you choose will be born from the votes you cast. Therefore, you need to have a wealth of political knowledge. We need the right voters to get rid of the parties and parliamentarians who are in power and corrupt that do not protect the interests of the country and the people.

Only then will Myanmar be able to stand as a clean country and become a socio-economically prosperous country. Whether that situation will be reached or not will only depend on the decision of the voters.

CNI News

19 May 2025

If a post-election government emerged in Myanmar, there are questions about how it would stabilize the political instability that is taking place in the country.

The government that will emerge after the election will have three major responsibilities: 
reconstruction after the earthquake that hit Myanmar, work to achieve internal peace, and building a new and developed country, Dr. Aye Maung, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), told CNI News.

Dr. Aye Maung, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), told CNI that the government that will emerge after the election will have three major responsibilities: reconstruction after the earthquake that hit Myanmar, work to achieve internal peace, and building a new and developed country.

These three responsibilities can only be carried out well if there is political stability. Therefore, the government that will come to power should not ignore what the previous governments did but rather work together to form a strong government, he said.

While political parties were meeting

" A post-election government has a huge responsibility. The first thing is to establish political trust among ourselves, starting from ceasing iour civil war. Currently, we must fully implement the reconstruction sector for the damage caused by the Mandalay earthquake, and then we must implement the internal peace from which we must establish a new developed country. Since there are three such three major responsibilities, the government that will emerge after the election will have a great task. Everyone will define it the same way,
I think. So the only way to carry out these three major tasks is political stability. In order to do this, the next government will have a major task force that will be able to firmly connect the current SAC's 5-year term, the NLD's 5-year term and the USDP's 5-year term before that. The next government shouldn't completely abolish everything that was done in the past by previous governments. We must collectively form a strong government. That government must lead to stabilize the country." said Dr. Aye Maung.

The SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has said that elections will be held in Myanmar between December 2025 and January 2026. 

The post-election government must resolve the armed conflict, and it must also focus on international relations, as some powerful countries are also involved in Myanmar's internal affairs, People's Pioneer Party (PPP) General Secretary U Myo Set Thway told CNI News.

The KIA-PDF joint force

"The post-election government must resolve the armed conflict issues. So if we look at the sources of these conflicts, there are historical events, natural resource sharing issues, and political positions. In addition, it is important to be aware of the involvement of some powerful countries. Therefore, it will be very difficult to build a nation without addressing these issues, so we will have to pay close attention to international relations. If you really think about it, all the local armed groups cannot survive without receiving support from somewhere. Where does these supports come from? It's clear when you think about it. All of this is related to international affairs. Policies and political views can be adjusted at the table, but what cannot be adjusted are the supporting forces. These problems must be resolved diplomatically." he said.

The earthquake that struck Myanmar on March 28, 2025, killed more than 4,000 people and injured more than 5,000, damaging homes, schools, religious buildings, hospitals/clinics, and roads and bridges. 

In addition, battles between the Myanmar military and ethnic armed groups/the People's Defense Forces (PDF) are ongoing across Myanmar, and the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) is increasing.

Therefore, military and political analysts point out that the post-election government must ensure political stability in order to carry out reconstruction efforts, internal peace, and resolve armed conflicts.

CNI Interview

19 May 2025 

SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has said that elections will be held in December 2025 and January 2026. On the other hand, political parties are facing difficulties in opening offices due to the widespread armed conflict. 

CNI News contacted and questioned the Union Election Commission (UEC) regarding these circumstances.

Q. I would like to know if the exact date for the election has been set.

A: The Union Election Commission (UEC) has set a date for the election and will announce it in due course.

Q. The SAC chairman has said that the election will be held in December. I would like to know whether he will announce when the political parties can start their campaigning period.

A: After the election date is announced, the campaign period will be announced after the list of candidates for Hluttaw has been verified.

Q. Since Section 5(h) stipulates that a party competing nationwide must open offices in half of all townships (more than 100 townships) nationwide, I would like to know which of the parties currently that will compete nationwide have been able to open offices as per the law, and which parties have not yet been able to open offices?

While seeing political parties

A: Out of the 9 parties that will organize nationwide, 3 parties has been able to open a specified number of offices, and 6 parties must be able to open the specified number of offices at least 90 days before the election date in accordance with the political parties registration law by the date announced by the Commission in a notification.

Q. . Section 5(h) stipulates that a party contesting within a region or state must open party offices in 5 townships of that region or state. So, I would like to know which parties have been able to open offices as per the provisions of the law, and which parties have not yet been able to open offices.

A: Out of the 45 parties that will organize only within a region or state, 19 parties have been able to open a specified number of offices, and 26 parties must be able to open the specified number of offices at least 90 days before the election date, as stipulated in the Political Parties Registration Law, and within the date announced by the Commission in a notification.

Q. Out of the 7 townships in Kayah State, only 1 or 2 townships are under the control of the government and the rest are not yet governed. Therefore, a party that will contest in Kayah State is facing difficulties in opening offices in five townships. There are similar difficulties in Rakhine and Chin States. So, how is the UEC going to ease this situation?

A: Regarding the opening of party offices in regions and states with limited geographical conditions, we have reviewed the submissions of the relevant parties and temporarily allowed them to open party offices in townships with good security.

Q. If the UEC does not ease a difficult situation, will the parties that are only competing in states such as Kayah, Chin, and Rakhine states no longer be allowed to compete in the elections held by the SAC? Can the parties be considered dissolved?

A: The Union Election Commission has given the parties some relaxation of the rules.

CNI News
17 May 2025

In the current context of the Burmese revolution, questions have been raised about why the Myanmar Tatmadaw and other armed groups, including the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs), want to seize Sagaing Region.
Sagaing Region is the largest of the seven regions and is surrounded by Magway Region, Mandalay Region, Shan State, Kachin State, India, and Chin State.

Since Myanmar gained independence, most politicians have been in Sagaing Region and that both sides want the region because jewels can be extracted there, Sai Htay Aung, chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News.

" The reason why they want to take Sagaing Region is because jewels including metals, gold, and uranium that are used in producing nuclear energy can be extracted there in Sagaing Region. It is designated as a Gold Region under the SLORC and the SPDC. In addition, initially, irrigated agriculture did not exist in Sagaing Region, but it became quite successful during the SLORC era,” he said.

The political forces and armed groups that participated in the Spring Revolution have formed the Sagaing Forum to bring about the end of authoritarianism, the right to self-determination and self-administration, and the emergence of a federal system.

The KIA/PDF joint force

There are political activities like the Sagaing Forum and that ethnic groups are not prioritizing Sagaing Region, but are carrying out military operations to protect their regions, the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S) Chairman Colonel Khun Okkar told CNI News.

"Kachin EAO can conduct military operations in Sagaing Region and reduce military attacks in Kachin State. In the same way, the Chin and Rakhine armed groups can do the same. So, Sagaing Region is not a priority for various ethnic groups. However, they can take part in military activities. "However, there are still some tasks that Sagaing itself needs to do. Some have acknowledged the Sagaing Forums and discussions took place. So, they are Sagaing Forum and the political model. In some way, it is the Sagaing constitution," he said.

Sagaing Region is known to have natural resources such as gas, oil, precious stone, gold, copper, timber, white gold, chromite, platinum, coal, iron, and rare earth metals. 
The central government does not have full direct authority over Sagaing Region, but it is within Myanmar's borders and is already under the central government's jurisdiction under the constitution, U Thein Tun Oo, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNI News.

The BPLA

"Although the central government does not have full power in Sagaing Region, it is still within the borders of Myanmar. In other words, Sagaing Region is under the current 2008 Constitution of Myanmar. So, according to the constitution, Sagaing Region is under the central government's jurisdiction." he said.

Within Sagaing Region, there are the NSCN (at least 6 Naga armed groups), the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA), the Meitei People's Army (MPA), the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Arakan Army (AA), the All Burma Students Democratic Front (ABSDF), and the Karen National Union (KNU).

In addition, there are the Chin National Front (CNF), Zomi Revolutionary Army (ZRA/ZRO), Kuki National Army-Burma (KNA-B), People's Defense Forces (PDFs) under NUG,
Burma National Revolutionary Army (BNRA), People's Liberation Army (PLA-Communist), 96 Soldiers (led by Ko Zeyar Lwin), CNDF (Chin ethnic group), Local Defense Forces (LPDFs), etc.
In the same way, there are militia forces and Pyu Saw Htee forces (Pa Sa Hta) under the Myanmar Tatmadaw in the region as well.

CNI News
17 May 2025

In the current context of the Burmese revolution, questions have been raised about why the Myanmar Tatmadaw and other armed groups, including the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs), want to seize Sagaing Region.
Sagaing Region is the largest of the seven regions and is surrounded by Magway Region, Mandalay Region, Shan State, Kachin State, India, and Chin State.

Since Myanmar gained independence, most politicians have been in Sagaing Region and that both sides want the region because jewels can be extracted there, Sai Htay Aung, chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News.

" The reason why they want to take Sagaing Region is because jewels including metals, gold, and uranium that are used in producing nuclear energy can be extracted there in Sagaing Region. It is designated as a Gold Region under the SLORC and the SPDC. In addition, initially, irrigated agriculture did not exist in Sagaing Region, but it became quite successful during the SLORC era,” he said.

The political forces and armed groups that participated in the Spring Revolution have formed the Sagaing Forum to bring about the end of authoritarianism, the right to self-determination and self-administration, and the emergence of a federal system.

The KIA/PDF joint force

There are political activities like the Sagaing Forum and that ethnic groups are not prioritizing Sagaing Region, but are carrying out military operations to protect their regions, the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S) Chairman Colonel Khun Okkar told CNI News.

"Kachin EAO can conduct military operations in Sagaing Region and reduce military attacks in Kachin State. In the same way, the Chin and Rakhine armed groups can do the same. So, Sagaing Region is not a priority for various ethnic groups. However, they can take part in military activities. "However, there are still some tasks that Sagaing itself needs to do. Some have acknowledged the Sagaing Forums and discussions took place. So, they are Sagaing Forum and the political model. In some way, it is the Sagaing constitution," he said.

Sagaing Region is known to have natural resources such as gas, oil, precious stone, gold, copper, timber, white gold, chromite, platinum, coal, iron, and rare earth metals. 
The central government does not have full direct authority over Sagaing Region, but it is within Myanmar's borders and is already under the central government's jurisdiction under the constitution, U Thein Tun Oo, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNI News.

The BPLA

"Although the central government does not have full power in Sagaing Region, it is still within the borders of Myanmar. In other words, Sagaing Region is under the current 2008 Constitution of Myanmar. So, according to the constitution, Sagaing Region is under the central government's jurisdiction." he said.

Within Sagaing Region, there are the NSCN (at least 6 Naga armed groups), the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA), the Meitei People's Army (MPA), the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Arakan Army (AA), the All Burma Students Democratic Front (ABSDF), and the Karen National Union (KNU).

In addition, there are the Chin National Front (CNF), Zomi Revolutionary Army (ZRA/ZRO), Kuki National Army-Burma (KNA-B), People's Defense Forces (PDFs) under NUG,
Burma National Revolutionary Army (BNRA), People's Liberation Army (PLA-Communist), 96 Soldiers (led by Ko Zeyar Lwin), CNDF (Chin ethnic group), Local Defense Forces (LPDFs), etc.
In the same way, there are militia forces and Pyu Saw Htee forces (Pa Sa Hta) under the Myanmar Tatmadaw in the region as well.

CNI News
17 May 2025

Some political parties have pointed out that implementing a one-party system in the current political landscape of Myanmar could further destabilize the country.

There are differences of opinion among political parties regarding whether the military tension and lack of stability in Myanmar are due to the multi-party system and whether the country should be rebuilt with a one-party system.

The lack of stability and the proliferation of armed groups in Myanmar is not due to the implementation of multi-party democracy, but rather to the existence of many armed groups since the era of the previous the Burma Socialist Programme Party that used one-party system, , said Sai Htay Aung, chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), to CNI News.

When the one-party system was used in the past, the country did not progress but only regressed. Therefore, if the one-party system is used in the current situation, the country could be further ruined, he said.

“We should only implement a multi-party system. We cannot implement a one-party system. If we implement a one-party system now, the country will be even more ruined. Let’s compare the United States and China. China is implementing a one-party system. If everyone follows the rules and principles, the country will progress. The United States is also implementing a multi-party system, but it is convenient. If we compare the socialist era with today, we can say that the multi-party system is more independent. The public also needs to understand politics well and then become organized. In any system, it is very difficult to build a country if the public does not understand politics. We had been using the one-party system for 24 years. The one-party system was implemented from the adoption of the 1974 Constitution until 1988. Despite this implementation, the country did not progress, but only regressed." said Sai Htay Aung.

While the SAC Chairman was meeting with political parties

After the Myanmar Tatmadaw seized power in 1962, General Ne Win formed the Burma Socialist Program Party and ruled Myanmar under a one-party system until 1988.

Then, in 1988, a massive popular uprising broke out, and the Ne Win government faced the historic 8888 Uprising. 

As a result, the Burma Socialist Program Party was also dissolved, and on September 18, 1988, the Myanmar Tatmadaw led by Senior General Saw Maung seized power and formed the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) to govern the country. Then, on May 27, 1990, a multi-party democratic general election was held.

The SAC chairman said that the elections in December 2025 will be held under a multi-party democracy system, and there is no reason for a one-party system, People's Party (PP) chairman U Ko Ko Gyi told CNI News.

While Senior General Min Aung Hlaing was casting a ballot

“Since they are saying that they will continue to operate under the 2008 constitution, I see that some issues are not controversial. The SAC has already said that they will go with a multi-party democracy system. So I see that it's necessary to implement a multi-party democracy system systematically. In developed countries, multi-party democracy is practiced. I believe that the continuation of the one-party system also depends on the vision and rationality of the leaders," he said.

A one-party system is a system in which a single party, adhering to a single political ideology, governs a country, and the party leader (or the party's central authority) holds the power of the country. 

Politicians point out that democracy is a system in which the people choose their representatives to make decisions and govern on their behalf while federalism is a concept in which the rights to work are shared by working together, coexistence, and sharing.

CNI News
17 May 2025

Since the election can only be conducted by the Election Commission, which is delegated authority by the National Defense and Security Council (NDSC), if the SAC extends the state of emergency for another six months, it means that the election will not take place, People's Party (PP) Chairman U Ko Ko Gyi told CNI News.

The election will be held by the end of this year (2025), and international community supports holding elections, said  the SAC's information team leader, Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun, told the media on May 10, 2025, after returning from a trip to Russia, adding that he wanted the people to help and support in order to hold elections peacefully.

If the election is to be held in December, the SAC must hand over power to the NDSC when the current six-month term expires. Otherwise, if the term is extended, the election in December will not take place, the People's Party (PP) Chairman U Ko Ko Gyi told CNI News.

“In order to hold an election in December, the SAC must hand over power to the NDSC without extending the current six-month period. After handing over power to the NDSC, the NDSC must hold elections within six months, before February 1. So, if the SAC hands over power to the NDSC on July 31, elections will be held for sure.”he said.

It is estimated that the SAC will hand over power to the NDSC on July 31. If the SAC is extended, it will mean that elections will not be held in December because the SAC cannot conduct elections. 

While the NDSC meeting was being held

Only the government, the Election Commission, which is delegated by the NDSC, can do so. So, if the SAC extends its tenure, elections will not be held in December. "I don't think the SAC will extend its tenure," he said.

On February 1, 2021, the Myanmar military ousted the National League for Democracy (NLD) government and declared a state of emergency, accusing it of attempting to form a government without resolving the 2020 general election voter list dispute. 

The SAC was extended for a 7th six-month period under Section-425 of the Constitution at the National Defense and Security Council meeting held on January 31, 2025.

It remains to be seen whether the NDSC will change its name and hold elections after the SAC hands over power to the NDSC, or hand over power back to the SAC and allow it to hold the election, the National Democratic Force Party (NDF) Vice Chairman U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News.

While political parties were meeting with the SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing

“The SAC will be extended on July 31. If the election is held without an extension, the SAC will have to hand over power to the NDSC according to the constitution. Since the NDSC will have to conduct the election, I think the NDSC will also change its name. For example, change the name from SAC to something else, or is the NDSC going to hand over power back to the SAC so that the SAC can lead the election in the best possible way? This is the NDSC's prerogative. We will know how the NDSC will do it by July 31st," he said.

SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has said that elections will be held in Myanmar between December 2025 and January 2026. 

Therefore, the six-month extension of the state of emergency will expire on July 31, 2025, and military and political analysts have pointed out that the possibility of an election can be predicted by looking at whether or not the extension will be extended.

The National Unity Government (NUG), the National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC), some ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), the People's Defense Force (PDF), and democracy activists, who are fighting to overthrow the SAC and the Myanmar military, have announced that they will disrupt the upcoming elections that will be held by the SAC.

CNI News

16 May 2025

While armed conflicts are growing and there are situations in which efforts can be made to change the borders of States and Regions and to secede, more people want to keep the current border demarcation, according to a survey released by the  Blue Shirt Initiative. 

The Blue Shirt Initiative conducted a survey between March 21 and 25, 2025, asking people whether they would like to keep state and region borders as they are, whether they should allow the formation of new states and regions, and whether they would accept or reject secession.

The survey was conducted in 235 townships across 14 states and regions, with 3,185 respondents, including 1,840 responses via Survey Link, 1,242 face-to-face interviews, and 72 responses via telephone, the Blue Shirt Initiative reported. 

Then, 46 percent of respondents nationwide said they wanted to keep the state and region boundaries as they are now, 33 percent nationwide said they wanted to allow the formation of new states, and 22 percent said they did not know or did not want to answer.

While seeing the survey regarding whether secession should be allowed or not

On the same question, 42 percent of those in the states wanted to keep the status quo, 36 percent wanted to allow the formation of new states, and 21 percent did not know or did not want to answer. In the regions, 47 percent wanted to keep the status quo, 31 percent wanted to allow the formation of new states, and 21 percent did not know or did not want to answer.

Similarly, in Yangon, 46 percent want to keep the borders of Regions and States as they are, 31 percent want to allow the formation of new states, and 22 percent do not know or do not want to answer. In Sagaing and Magway Regions, 51 percent want to keep the borders of Regions and States as they are, 35 percent want to allow the formation of new states, and 14 percent do not know or do not want to answer.

When asked whether they would prefer to be allowed to secede from Myanmar or remain united as they are now, the Blue Shirt Initiative survey found that 47 percent of the country favored remaining united as they are now, 33 percent favored secession, and 20 percent did not know or did not want to answer.

Then, 40 percent of the States want to remain united as they are, 42 percent want to be allowed to secede, and 19 percent do not know or do not want to answer. Similarly, in the Regions, 49 percent said they should remain united as they are, 30 percent said they should be allowed to secede, and 21 percent said they didn't know or didn't want to answer.

An armed group

In Yangon, 44 percent said Regions and States should remain united as they are, 32 percent said secession should be allowed, and 24 percent said they didn't know or didn't want to answer. In Sagaing and Magway divisions, 55 percent said the country should remain united as it is, 31 percent said secession should be allowed, and 13 percent said they didn't know or didn't want to answer. 

In Sagaing and Magway Regions, 55 percent said the country should remain united as it is, 31 percent said secession should be allowed , and 13 percent said they didn't know or didn't want to answer.

Currently, fierce battles are taking place across Myanmar, both between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and armed groups, and between armed groups themselves. The conflicts have been triggered by different goals, including the redrawing of state and regional borders, secession, the creation of special autonomous regions, and the overthrow of the SAC and the Myanmar Tatmadaw.

CNI News

16 May 2025

Military and political analysts are currently analyzing what the military and political situation in the northern, southern, and western regions of Myanmar, where armed conflicts are occurring, might be like in 2025. 

there could be negotiations regarding the northern region and a similar pattern could emerge in the southern and western regions, the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S) Chairman Colonel Khun Okkar told CNI News, adding that he believed that the military and political situation would depend on the situation in the six months before the election.

“I think this year is a mix of good and bad. The northern groups, including the KIA, will negotiate and the locals will be a little more relaxed. When that happens, the south may become a little more tense. In the western Rakhine and Chin, there may be a different pattern. So it could be half good, half bad. That also depends on the SAC, which currently dominates the central region. The SAC leaders still have 6 to 7 months before the election to find a way in order to overcome the conflict. The political situation that will develop in the meantime will be decisive, I think." he said.

An armed group

Fierce battles are ongoing in Myanmar between EAOs/PDF and the Myanmar Tatmadaw. The AA-TNLA-MNDAA jointly launched Operation 1027 in northern Shan State on October 27, 2023, capturing almost the entire northern region of Shan State and the Northeast Command.

However, after talks between the MNDAA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw, the MNDAA had to hand over Lashio in northern Shan State to the Myanmar Tatmadaw. 

On the other hand, the KIA is engaging in battles for control of towns in Kachin State and Sagaing Region in collaboration with the PDF. 

Similarly, the AA has controlled 14 out of 17 townships in Rakhine State, including Paletwa town, Chin State, and is also fighting against the Myanmar military, in collaboration with local armed groups in Ayeyarwady, Magway, and Sagaing regions.

China can continue to implement the ceasefire as per its strategy, so the military and political situation depends on the ability of the revolutionary forces to act, China-Myanmar affairs analyst Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw told CNI News. 

While seeing the TNLA

"This depends on how much the revolutionary forces can do. It depends on how much the revolutionary forces can do. China will continue its ceasefire strategy. China has greatly assisted the development of the “Wa” region and Mong La because they are close to its country. In this way, China wants to show that if efforts can be made to make the country develop peacefully, any region can develop. We already know that the military council must be eliminated." she said.

China is trying to mediate and negotiate peace between the KIA-AA-TNLA-MNDAA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw, and the Myanmar Tatmadaw will meet with the TNLA again in August. There are also speculations that if talks with the TNLA are successful, talks with the KIA could be prioritized instead of the AA.