CNI New

30 October 2025

There are questions being raised about the meaning of the definition of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) plus the additional NCA+, which is being discussed between the Myanmar Military (Tatmadaw) and ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) for the cessation of armed conflict in Myanmar.

Political analysts suggest that NCA+ could mean extending an invitation to organizations that should rightfully participate in political dialogues, even if they have not yet signed the NCA, in order to overcome the current crisis.

Armed conflict has been ongoing in Myanmar since the country gained independence in 1948 until the present day. Various approaches have been taken for peace, such as exchanging weapons for peace, exchanging weapons for economic benefits, and building peace through holding arms. However, an agreement that could lead to the cessation of armed conflicts and the resolution of political issues was never successfully created.

Colonel Saw Kyaw Nyunt, spokesperson for the 7 EAO Alliance, told CNI News Agency that they used the abbreviation NCA+ to refer to a platform that allows relevant organizations to participate in political dialogues to overcome the current crisis, even if they have not yet signed the NCA.

Colonel Saw Kyaw Nyunt seen at an anniversary ceremony of the NCA

He said, "The peace processes and political dialogues included in our NCA have been stalled (since February 2021) until today. So, when considering how to restart these kinds of political dialogues, we looked beyond the conventional NCA path and thought of a platform where groups that haven't signed the NCA can participate in discussions. This is about making an effort to overcome the crisis, where in the political dialogues, in addition to the NCA signatories, we've abbreviated and used the term NCA+ to allow organizations that should rightfully participate to overcome the current deadlock, even if they haven't signed the NCA. To be frank, at the past ceremony, 7 NCA-signatory groups attended, and groups like 'Wa,' 'Mongla,' and SSPP, though not NCA signatories, were allowed to attend the conference we were holding. You could consider this a platform where they got to discuss and consult together."

The NCA agreement consists of 7 chapters and 33 clauses. This agreement is seen as the only possible way to amend Myanmar’s 2008 Constitution—which is otherwise difficult to change—and is also the agreement through which democracy and a Federal Union can be discussed and established.

Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai-Lai (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News Agency that NCA+ is an invitation to discuss outside the agreement, and the NCA path is the best way for national peace.

Sai Htay Aung seen at an anniversary ceremony of the NCA

He said, "NCA+ is not a new agreement. It is an invitation for groups that do not agree with the NCA to engage in discussions outside of the NCA agreement. I believe the NCA path is the best way for national peace. However, some armed organizations wish to amend or reform the NCA, and some clauses are already permitted for modification. As for a group like the 'Wa,' they do not follow the NCA path; they stand independently, but they are included in the negotiating group. Currently, there were 10 NCA signatories, but after 3 groups withdrew, 7 groups remain. The Naga group is known to have signed at the regional level, but I hear they have not yet reached the Union level."

During the government led by U Thein Sein, the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) came into existence. That agreement is considered the best and most respectable agreement in Myanmar's history of peace building until the present time.

CNI News

29 October 2025

Although China and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) have agreed to reopen Myanmar–China border gates inside Kachin State, military and political analysts believe that the KIA may have to make certain concessions to the Tatmadaw (Myanmar military) as a result of this agreement.

On October 25, 2025, four border gates — Lweje, Kanpaitee, Laiza, and Mai Jayang — were reopened for the import of Chinese consumer and essential goods only.

According to China–Myanmar affairs analyst Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, behind China's decision to reopen these gates, the KIA may have to make certain concessions to the Tatmadaw.

Kanpaitee border trade area

“China is certainly making some kind of exchange deal. Once the KIA benefits from the reopening of border gates, it will likely have to make some concessions to the military council. The same thing happened with the MNDAA. Some towns were returned to the junta, and in return, the border gates were reopened. Once trade resumed, economic activity improved significantly. Whether China reopened gates for the MNDAA or for the Ta’ang (TNLA), the result was similar — better trade and a revived border economy. This benefits not only the border groups but also the people of Myanmar. China’s strategy is to pressure both sides — the junta and the ethnic groups — while at the same time revitalizing its major regional free trade network in Asia. Therefore, China is employing multiple tactics to achieve that strategic goal. Under that grand strategy, the reopening of border gates and restoration of trade will gradually continue.”, she said.

Meanwhile, locals say that due to the ongoing political and military turmoil, people across the country are struggling economically as prices of essential goods have sharply risen.

Myanmar affairs analyst U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News that China may also be reopening the gates out of humanitarian concern:

While KIA was removing a border gate

“It can also be said that China has slightly reduced its political pressure. Another reason could be humanitarian sympathy. Those of us living in Yangon might not feel it directly, but ordinary people in conflict areas are suffering the most. They are not involved in the fighting, yet they are the ones enduring hardship. In those border areas, commodity prices have skyrocketed. People are facing economic collapse and severe livelihood difficulties.
Therefore, China may have reopened the gates to ease the suffering of local civilians.”

At present, four China–Kachin border gates have reopened, but the Man Wein Gyi gate in Mansi Township and the Panwar gate remain closed.

CNI News

29 October 2025

Due to the widening attacks by the Muslim armed group ARSA (Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army) in Maungdaw and Buthidaung, Rakhine State, analysts are discussing why the group has become active again in northern Rakhine.

Observers say that ARSA may have returned to Rakhine after suffering setbacks and fragmentation in other regions. They note that the Arakan Army (AA) now controls more than half of Rakhine State, leaving ARSA with limited prospects elsewhere, which may have prompted it to re-emerge in the region.

U Myo Kyaw from the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA) told CNI News:

“ARSA receives backing from some Islamic countries. Globally, Islamic migration is widespread, and conflicts involving them exist in various places. When they face defeats or fragmentation in other regions, they tend to return to areas like Rakhine within Myanmar to rebuild their strength. Previously, they could maintain their presence under the cover of diplomatic, international human rights, and humanitarian issues without much military confrontation. But now, since the Arakan Army controls almost all of Rakhine, ARSA may see its long-term prospects as unfavorable and is attempting to reassert itself.
At present, the Rakhine forces are fighting against the military regime on one side, while on the other, ARSA and ARSO are striking from behind. This could be seen as a two-front war aimed at weakening the Rakhine revolution so that ARSA can seize the opportunity to replace it.”

A crossroads inside Rakhine State

According to local administrative sources, around 50 civilians have been killed between May and October 2025 in Maungdaw and Buthidaung due to ARSA attacks.

On October 22, ARSA ambushed a passenger vehicle near Myoyu village, Maungdaw Township, killing two women from Setibyin village, Rathedaung Township, who were returning from shopping, the AA reported.
Military and political analysts note that ARSA’s activities in Rakhine have intensified in 2025 and that the group primarily targets civilians.

There are also reports that ARSA and ARSO are operating with the support of Bangladesh’s Border Guard (BGB), infiltrating Maungdaw District through routes along the Naf River and the Mayu mountain range.

According to U Thein Tun Oo, Executive Director of the Institute for Strategy Studies, these developments stem from not being under the control of central government in the area:

Arakan Army leaders seen during a meeting

“Since the 2018 crisis in northern Rakhine, analysts have warned that conflicts could grow if central administration and control disappear. Although the AA claims control over the northern parts of Rakhine, it does not function as a fully authoritative government. Therefore, when another armed group with comparable strength emerges, such clashes are inevitable.”

The extremist Islamist militant groups ARSA and ARSO have reportedly been threatening local civilians along the Myanmar–Bangladesh border, seizing property and instilling fear.
In response, the Arakan Army (AA) has warned civilians in border areas not to travel alone or in small groups through forests and remote regions.

If travel is absolutely necessary, including for medical reasons, the Arakan People’s Revolutionary Government has urged residents to inform the nearest local administrative or security forces beforehand.

Regarding ARSA and ARSO attacks, the Bangladesh interim government has recently been urged by the Arakan Army to find bilateral cooperation mechanisms to prevent further escalation and promote coordination.

CNI News

29 October 2025

Observers point out that due to the ongoing armed conflicts in Myanmar, it is difficult for foreign investment to enter the country and for the public to conduct trade and business.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, stated on October 19, 2025, that economic activities cannot be carried out if stability is disrupted by armed violence. Therefore, he stressed the imperative need to curb armed violence and work towards regional stability and peace.

Colonel Saw Kyaw Nyunt, spokesperson for the 7 EAO Alliance, told CNI News Agency that it is difficult to conduct business without stability and peace in a region.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing

He said: “International experts talk about Myanmar’s economic situation from various perspectives. Based on the objective situation on the ground, armed conflicts are occurring. They are still ongoing, and this is the time when the armed conflict is historically the most widespread and severe. Whether within the country or among our public, the economy is quite tight, to be frank. It is extremely difficult for a business to survive without regional stability and peace. Whether we look at international experience or our country’s own journey, everyone already knows that it is very difficult to achieve development and conduct business without stability and peace in a region.”

Currently, intense battles are raging across Myanmar, both between the Myanmar Armed Forces (Tatmadaw) and ethnic armed groups, and among the armed groups themselves.

Similarly, as both sides are accelerating recruitment, young people are fleeing abroad, and Myanmar is losing human resources as others are forced to enter the fighting.

Colonel Saw Kyaw Nyunt, spokesperson for the 7 EAO Alliance, told CNI News Agency that while attempting to bring the civil war in Myanmar to a complete end, the people have found themselves in a life of tears amidst this large-scale and widespread armed conflict.

Colonel Saw Kyaw Nyunt and other armed group leaders are seen

He continued: "In the current political landscape of our country, there is a lot of finger-pointing and blaming one another. Armed conflict is widespread in our country—a civil war. We have made attempts to bring it to a complete end, but while striving, the people are now living lives full of tears amidst this unprecedented, massive, and widespread armed conflict. They are still facing it now. There are various views on these armed conflicts. This is an undeniable, objective reality."

The armed conflict in Myanmar has lasted for over 70 years, from 1948 until today.

Due to these armed conflicts, the lack of regional stability and peace, reduced rule of law, high electricity demand, insecure trade and travel routes, and internal displacement have made conducting business increasingly difficult.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing noted that Myanmar's production sector has been weak, leading to the excessive exploitation of natural resources. Therefore, he stated that Tatmadaw personnel, in their respective areas of duty, need to cooperate and assist the public in increasing production based on the foundational sectors of agriculture and livestock.

CNI News 

29 October 2025

The Chairman of the Shan and Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP), Sai Aik Paung, told CNI News Agency that he will contest the upcoming election, scheduled to be held in Myanmar, from the Amyotha Hluttaw constituency in Bago District, Bago Region.

Myanmar is scheduled to hold Phase (1) of the election in 102 townships on December 28, 2025.

Sai Aik Paung said: "I will contest for the Amyotha Hluttaw constituency in Bago District, Bago Region. The situation in Bago is very good. What is the slogan? The slogan is: 'To progress peacefully, let's vote for the White Tiger Party.' If you want peace and development, the people should vote for the White Tiger Party. Only then will there be peace and development. We will also provide training on how to campaign for the candidates. The training will have two parts: the issue of the constitution and the issue of election campaigning. We will train people in our party on the constitutional matters they should know, the do's and don'ts for parliamentary candidates, and how to campaign to the public."

Sai Aik Paung and members of the White Tiger Party are seen

Political parties say that the public's interest in the upcoming election on December 28 is low, and few people are coming to check the announced voter lists.

Sai Aik Paung told CNI News Agency that people should not abstain from voting in the upcoming election, as failing to vote and letting an unliked party win and form the government would cause them significant harm.

He stated: "Some people say they won't vote in the election. Please don't do that; please vote. Don't lose this rare opportunity. Everyone over 18 should vote for the party they like. Only then will the party you like become the government. If you don't vote and a party you dislike wins and becomes the government, that will cause you a lot of harm. Everyone over 18, all parents and citizens, please come and vote on election day. Now it's very easy, just press a button. What's the harm in going once in five years? How many thousands of days are there in five years? 365 days a year, so five years is about 1,800 to 2,000 days. What's the harm in going to vote for just one day? Please go and vote."

The list of candidates contesting the election to be held on December 28, 2025, is seen

The SNDP) is a Union-level party, and 584 candidates will contest the election scheduled for December 28, 2025.

During the election held under the previous civilian government, the public was interested in checking the voter lists and personally made corrections and additions if there were errors.

However, observers point out that because the election results were annulled based on disputes over the voter lists, people have low confidence and little interest in the upcoming election.

CNI News

28 October 2025

Local residents say that the KIA-PDF-Kadu forces, which have seized control of Banmauk Township in Upper Sagaing Region, were setting fire to the area near the police station and Hlazingon Ward on the afternoon of October 26, 2025.

A video file documented by a drone, showing the fire damage, was also found.

A Banmauk local said: "They are burning the area of the Banmauk Police Station and Hlazingon Ward, starting around 12 noon. The KIA-PDF-Kadu forces are doing the burning. The military (Tatmadaw) and SNA forces are no longer there; they are just near Banmauk town. The KIA-PDF have been occupying the town since September 20. The SNA is also launching an offensive to retake the town. The KIA-PDF troops were instructed to burn the town if they had to retreat. They told the locals that if they had to withdraw, they would burn everything and frame it as damage caused by the SNA attack."

Currently, the Shan Nationalities Army (SNA) and the Myanmar Armed Forces (Tatmadaw) are preparing militarily to retake Banmauk town and are reportedly positioned about a mile away, according to local residents.

A combined force of no less than 18 revolutionary groups, including the KIA-PDF-Kadu forces, launched an offensive on Banmauk town on September 15 and captured and controlled it on September 20.

Banmauk town was previously controlled by the SNA forces.

Subsequently, fighting has been occurring between the KIA-PDF-Kadu forces and the SNA.

CNI News

28 October 2025

The United Wa State Army (UWSA) is operating on a “One Country, Two Systems” model, similar to China, military and political analysts told CNI News Agency.

China administers Hong Kong and Macau with distinct autonomy under its “One Country, Two Systems” policy.

The analysts point out that the “One Country, Two Systems” model is definitely not federalism.

However, U Khun Sai, who is involved in the peace process, told CNI News Agency that by flying the Union flag alongside their own flag during ceremonies, the “Wa” are demonstrating their non-secessionist stance, which helps maintain relations with the Tatmadaw (military).

He stated: “This situation is definitely not federal. If it were truly federal, 'One Country, One Nation, Two Systems' would not be possible. Therefore, both sides need to resolve this patiently through dialogue and discussion. It’s essential to have the spirit that we will not use force, no matter what. The 'Wa' are currently operating a one-party system. Firstly, it is not a multi-party system that everyone can accept; they have a single-party system. This is the first thing we see. Secondly, they do not accept any administrative, judicial, or legislative mechanisms of the central government or state government into their territory. They operate only with their own mechanisms. And there is no doubt that they are currently operating on the 'One Country, Two Systems' principle. The only thing is that when they hold ceremonies, they fly their own flag and the Union flag. By doing this, they are conveying the meaning that they will not secede, and this is how they maintain the current central government (or) military government’s tolerance.”

 A UWSA representative attending the NCA ceremony on October 15, 2025, is seen.

After signing a ceasefire with the Myanmar Armed Forces in 1989, the UWSA was designated as the “Wa” Self-Administered Division, divided into two districts comprising Hopang, Mongmao, Pangwai, Narphan, Matman, and Pangsang townships.

Since then, the administrative, legislative, and judicial affairs in the areas controlled by the UWSA have not been under the control of the central government but remain solely under the control of the UWSA.

The “Wa” force is the strongest ethnic armed organization based in parts of northern and southern Shan State, having split from the Communist Party of Burma (CPB) in 1989 to form the “Wa” armed group.

The aspiration of the “Wa” force, led by Bao Youxiang, is to officially achieve “Wa State.” Lieutenant General Yar Pyae, Chairman of the NSPNC, stated on October 17 that he had met and discussed with representatives of the “Wa” force during the tenure of the current Commission Chairman.

An FN-6 anti-aircraft weapon of the UWSA is seen.

Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a Chinese-Myanmar affairs observer, told CNI News Agency that even though the “Wa” has not achieved state-level status, it is not an issue because they already possess self-administration and the central government has no dominance in their territory.

She said: “Look, what the 'Wa' is doing now is based on a concept proposed by China: 'One Country, Two Systems.' They are operating exactly that way. Whether the 'Wa' is given a self-administered region or not, the 'Wa' already has it. They haven't achieved state level yet. So, even though it is called the 'Wa' region, they have their own self-administration and self-determination rights. The only thing they lack is foreign trade. Even then, some border trade seems to be directly linked with China. So, whether the 'Wa' is granted a self-administered state or not, the military commission is not the truly official government anyway. Thus, the 'Wa' will do what they want, and I don’t think there is much of a problem.”

The UWSA signed a Union-level ceasefire agreement with the government but is not a signatory to the NCA. However, following the political change in 2021, they met and negotiated based on the Tatmadaw's peace invitation, and UWSA representatives attended and participated in peace forums.

CNI News
26 October 2025

Military and political observers are analyzing what preparations are necessary for all ethnic groups living in Myanmar to adopt the spirit of "We are Myanmar."

On October 21, 2025, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing stated that ethnic nationalities need to adopt the "Myanmar spirit" and the sentiment of "We are Myanmar"—a united, cohesive national spirit—and join hands to implement peace, tranquility, and development for the state.

Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News Agency that for citizens to cultivate the "We are Myanmar" spirit, they must first have a deep love for the nation. If they have this, they can build Union solidarity and unity.

He said, "The main thing is that if they love this country, Myanmar, and work to develop it, I believe the ethnic issues can also be resolved as a subsequent benefit. For example, let's look at Japan. After World War II, they faced oppression and struggled hard to rebuild their nation. In the reconstruction process, they worked with great effort and a love for Japan, based on the spirit of 'We are Japanese.' They later climbed to become the second richest country in the world. Similarly, if we love our country now, we should work for the country's development instead of its destruction."

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing seen with youths from various ethnic groups

Military and political observers point out that since Myanmar's independence, the country has been plagued by civil war, rooted in the Panglong Agreement, making it difficult to unite the nation.

Sai Htay Aung said, "The civil wars that arose with the Panglong Agreement and independence were primarily driven by ideological attachment at first. Later, it became ethnic attachment. However, along with ethnic attachment, armed leaders, under the banner of revolting against the dictator, themselves became dictators. Therefore, if we love our country, and if we proceed with peaceful and coordinated negotiations on these issues, the country will become stable, peaceful, and developed."

U Thein Tun Oo, spokesperson for the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), told CNI News Agency that in his view, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing's statement of "We are Myanmar" was intended to encourage Myanmar citizens to stand proudly and firmly as Myanmar and further enhance patriotism and national spirit.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing seen with youths from various ethnic groups

He said, "In my opinion, I see that the Senior General made this statement to further enhance patriotism. I believe he intends for all of us, the citizens of Myanmar, to stand with pride and glory in saying 'We are Myanmar,' to keep the patriotic spirit vibrant and sharp, and to further elevate the national spirit. In reality, 'Myanmar' refers to all ethnic nationalities in Myanmar, including the Bamar people. Our state is the Republic of the Union of Myanmar. Various ethnic groups live in this state. The distinction between 'Myanmar' and 'Bamar' is not very clear. So, 'Myanmar' is often associated with 'Bamar.' Therefore, there are Bamar people, just as there are other ethnic nationalities within Myanmar. If the distinction between Myanmar and Bamar is made, it will help in terms of equal rights, equal laws, and equal governance."

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing also stated on October 21 that all citizens need to unite and collectively defend, safeguard, and maintain the Union.

Currently, since gaining independence in 1948, Myanmar has been embroiled in a civil war that continues to this day because fundamental issues such as ethnic equality, self-determination, autonomy, the establishment of a democratic state, and the formation of a federal union have not been resolved.

As a result, racial perspectives have emerged, making it difficult to build the "We are Myanmar" reality.

Military and political observers point out that Section 450 of the 2008 Constitution stipulates that the Myanmar language is the official language. Based on this provision, the Myanmar language and Myanmar words are the Bamar language and Bamar words, leading to the assumption that "Myanmar" is "Bamar." It must be considered whether such assumptions make it difficult for non-Bamar ethnic groups to accept the "We are Myanmar" situation.

CNI News
26 October 2025

The expansion of armed conflicts in many regions is due to the Tatmadaw (Myanmar military) having to act defensively against the opposing forces, said Colonel Wunna Aung from the National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC).

He was responding to questions from the media at a press conference on October 17, 2025, concerning the NCA (10th) Anniversary event and the peace process workshop.

Colonel Wunna Aung from the NSPNC stated that the Myanmar military is compelled to retaliate because the opposing armed groups have crossed into its territory and initiated battles, even in urban areas.

He said, "In any case, besides initiating battles in the towns and cities, there are terrorist acts. They are destroying all the infrastructure. We discussed this in our meeting, following the saying that it is necessary to understand and distinguish between the government and the state. One must understand the government, and one must understand the state. Besides destroying all the state's infrastructure, they are also terrorizing and killing peaceful citizens, treating them as enemies if they are not on their side, which we are reporting in the news. Anyway, when the other side crosses into our territory, initiates battles in urban areas, and carries out terrorist activities, we sometimes have to fight in self-defense. Therefore, we are forced to take protective action in response to terrorism. That is why we want and desire peace. That is also why, at this time, we are raising various topics related to peace and working to involve the armed groups in the peace process and to inform the people."

Colonel Wunna Aung of the NSPNC said that previously, the ethnic armed organizations that signed the NCA were no longer in the cities but remained in their former locations, observing a ceasefire and negotiating peace with one another.

Military and political observers point out that since the political change in Myanmar in 2021, the number of armed groups has increased, and armed conflicts have become larger and more widespread, leading to a greater number of civilian casualties.

Colonel Wunna Aung from NSPNC seen at the press conference on October 17, 2025

Due to these developments, the Myanmar peace process continues to be necessary, and the civil war must stop, added Dr. Aye Maung, Chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), at the press conference on October 17.

He said, "Our Myanmar peace process is still needed. Even though there is a war, we discussed at this 10th-anniversary event that it is necessary to stop this civil war for the sake of the people, the country, and the interests of the entire nation, so that everyone across the nation and the world knows—all citizens and ethnic groups, both in the war zones and the non-war zones, know what is needed in their hearts. People in the war zones are moving to non-war zones. They feel it in their hearts; their homes, their children, and their grandchildren are left behind. There are groups who come here and groups who are left there, and sometimes they can't even connect with each other."

While the government has officially announced that the first phase of the election will be held on December 28, there have been no unofficial meetings between the military and the armed groups currently engaged in fighting on the ground.

Therefore, military and political observers point out that the government that comes into power after the election will face significant challenges regarding peace.

Currently, the Myanmar military is also seen gradually working to regain control of the territories it has lost.