CNI News

15 March 2025

Whether elections could be held in December, 2025 or in January, 2026 that the SAC Chairman Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing mentioned is being questioned by military and political analysts. 

The SAC Chairman expressed the period when elections would be held and because he used the phrase 'at the earliest' in what he said, they are questioning if there might be 'at the latest', U Khun Sai, a person who is taking part in the peace process, told CNI News.

" We have to consider first what the SAC Chairman expressed. He said that a plan had been made that elections would be held in December, 2025 or in January, 2026 at the earliest. Here, what does he mean 'at the earliest'. If so, might there be 'at the latest'?  According to Section.421 (B) of the 2008 constitution, it is questioned whether the state of emergency could be extended every six months. The SAC Chairman can only answer that question. According to the 2008 constitution, he can always extend the tenure. But it doesn't seem like the SAC chairman has any intention of extending his term indefinitely." he said.

While seeing leaders of some political parties and the SAC Chairman

Because the SAC Chairman expressed the exact period when elections would be held, if the current six month tenure expired, the SAC could change into a kind of force for elections, considered military and political analysts. 

China would cooperate with the SAC so that elections could be held in Myanmar, said the Special Envoy of the Chinese Foreign Ministry during his meeting with the SAC Chairman on 11 March 2025.

However, although the SAC Chairman said that elections would be held in August, 2023, because he didn't plan to hold elections, there are considerations whether elections could be held or not this time.

" Whether the state of emergency is extended or not doesn't make any difference. They say they can extend the tenure under the 2008 constitution when the country is unstable. In fact, the SAC Chairman is Acting President and Prime Minister. It's obvious that he alone extends the tenure." said U Myo Kyaw from the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA) to CNI News.

While seeing the SAC Chairman and the Belarusian President Lukashenko

Moreover, a multi-party democratic general election would be held without fail and for that, cooperation only was needed without contrary acts; if the election could be held, Myanmar would be successful certainly, said the SAC chairman when he returned from goodwill trips to Russia and Belarus.

Because of armed conflicts taking place throughout the country, the SAC has lost control of several hundred military camps and two military commands as well as over 90 townships.
Meanwhile, everyone is questioning how elections would be held.

CNI News

15 March 2025

There have been more ethnic parties which were registered, political parties will discuss to expand their groupings on 17 March 2025, chairman of the People's Party (PP) U Ko Ko Gyi told CNI News.

The matters relating to the expansion of political parties would be discussed in the meeting and the points agreed and the matters possible to reach more agreements would be discussed as well, he said.

" Political parties have formed the Working Group. The four leading parties take turns taking leadership responsibility. Later, there have been more many ethnic parties which were registered. So, we proposed to expand the political parties group in the meeting with the National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC). So, we will discuss it and future processes that include matters relating to the points that have been already agreed upon and those possible to reach more agreements." he said.

While political parties and the NSPNC were meeting and discussing

The NSPNC and the Working Group of political parties met and discussed on 23 and 24 January, 2025.

43 points were agreed and signed in the discussion to amend the 2008 constitution and the point ' Myanmar is built as a Union based on democracy and federalism' was agreed to include in the constitution. 

Moreover, seven points are still being discussed to be amended reportedly.

A meeting would be called to expand the Working Group of political parties and more points to be added would be discussed, vice chairman of the National Democratic Force Party, U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News.

While the SAC Chairman was meeting with leaders of political parties

" Our 16 parties have the Working Group. But more ethnic parties have been registered. So, there has been a plan to expand the Working Group to 24 parties when Maj-Gen Tun Tun Naung served as the chairman of the NSPNC. We have called up a meeting to be held at 1:00 p.m. on 17 March 2025. We'll talk about things we carry out after the meeting of 16 parties. And there are points that the NSPNC and us are discussing. We have agreed to 43 points. Later, in the discussion to come, we'll discuss points that should be added." he said.

The political parties that have been registered are mainly carrying out a political reform proposal to become a consensus.

A better federal form and a better democratic form could be well implemented by pre-negotiation among political parties on how to go after elections, said political parties.

CNI News

14 March 2025

It was likely that Chinese Special Envoy came to Myanmar because China wanted to know the agreements between Russia and the State Administration Council in detail, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.

Chinese Special Envoy Mr. Deng Xijun came and met with the SAC chairman Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing who got back from goodwill trips to Russia and Belarus on 11 March 2025. 

The special envoy probably came to Myanmar to meet and discuss because China wanted to know the agreements between Russia and the SAC in detail and how to implement the agreements in Myanmar, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.

" In my opinion, China wants to know the agreements between its allies - the SAC and Russia as well as what Russia will do in Myanmar in detail. So, its Special Envoy was sent to Myanmar, I think. The SAC Chairman was welcomed by the Russian President Putin in person. Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing was very active there as well. So, China wants to know what extent agreements were reached and how the agreements will be implemented in detail, I think." he said.

The SAC Chairman Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing went on goodwill trips to Russia and Belarus from 3rd to 9th March and met separately with the Russian President Putin and the Belarusian President Lukashenko and discussed matters regarding economic investments and enabling the SAC to hold elections.

While seeing the SAC Chairman and the Russian President Putin with a delegate who was signing the agreement

After that, the Chinese Special Envoy came to Myanmar and discussed with Deputy Prime Minister and FM of the SAC, U Than Swe on 10th March 2025.

And then, in the meeting between the SAC Chairman and the Chinese delegation led by Mr. Deng Xijun, they discussed matters regarding preparations for elections and China's cooperation.

Moreover, China's cooperation in the peace process of Myanmar and matters relating to border trade between the two countries. 

Chinese Special Envoy possibly came to Myanmar because China might try to hold peace talks between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the TNLA again because the first discussion ended without any results, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs commentator told CNI News.

While seeing Chinese Special Envoy Deng Xijun and Foreign Minister of the SAC U Than Swe

" Mr. Deng Xijun comes to Myanmar very often. He is carrying out as a negotiator. The first peace talks between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the TNLA was broken. The TNLA said that it would discuss again. So, the Chinese Special Envoy might come to negotiate this case. It's likely, I think. Moreover, because the AA is attacking Sittwe and Kyauk Phyu, security issues might have been discussed. I heard China's security forces have already arrived in Kyauk Phyu." she said.

China is mediating to negotiate to make ceasefires emerge between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the Northern Alliance (AA,TNLA,MNDAA). After the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the MNDAA held peace talks with China's brokered engagement on 16 January 2025, the two sides reached a temporary ceasefire.

Although the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the TNLA met and discussed in China on 16 February 2025, the discussion ended without any results and it would meet with the Myanmar Tatmadaw again, reported the TNLA on 19 February 2025.

In the same way, the AA might meet and discuss with the Myanmar Tatmadaw in March this year with China's brokered engagement, according to those close to both sides.

CNI News

14 March 2025

Although the period when elections would be held has been revealed, major political changes are unlikely to occur in 2025, military and political analysts told CNI News.

If political changes were wanted, both sides would need to open the way, U Khun Sai who is taking part in the peace process, told CNI News.

"Currently, there is no prospect of political change. But political changes are wanted, both the Myanmar Tatmadaw and revolutionary organizations need to open the way. If they wait for each other, this won't make the way." he said.

While seeing the SAC Chairman during his trip to Belarus

The SAC Chairman has said that elections would be held and the State power would be handed over to the winning party since 2021 when it took the power, but it has not been implemented as yet.

However, the SAC chairman expressed that the SAC had planned to hold elections in December 2025 or in January 2026 during his trips to Russia and Belarus If elections were held at present, they were not able to represent all the townships and all ethnic groups, U Myo Kyaw from the United Nationalities Alliance, told CNI News.

While the anniversary celebration of the NCA was being held

" They had announced that they would hold elections since they staged a coup d'état. The state of emergency was repeatedly extended every six months. The SAC said that they would hold elections in late 2023, but it wasn't able to hold elections. Now the SAC Chairman has said that elections will be held in December 2025 or in January 2026. We understand he said what he wants. They understand that they can't do it. So, the UEC is trying hard to hold elections even in one-third of townships in Myanmar. Even if elections could be held in these townships, it can't represent ethnic groups and most townships." he said.

Because battles have become more widespread throughout the country during the past four years, how the SAC will be able to stabilize the entire country is being questioned by military and political analysts.

The SAC would have to take the responsibility for the security so that elections can be held, they pointed out.

CNI News
13 March 2025

If a multi-party democratic general election was held, chairman of the State Administration Council Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing should meet and discuss with unregistered parties, military and political analysts told CNI News.

Because a multi-party democratic general election would be held without fail, cooperation only was needed without acting contrarily, said the SAC chairman on the plane which returned from Russia and Belarus on 9 March 2025.

If the SAC wanted to hold a multi-party democratic general election, terms and conditions need to be revised so that unregistered parties and parties that have not got registration could take part in the election, U Khun Sai who is involved in the peace process, told CNI News.

"If the SAC opens the way for all parties, then this election has the potential to be an inclusive election. Terms and conditions need to be revised so that a free, fair and transparent general election can be held. The SAC doesn't believe some parties. The SAC doesn't let them to register. Some elections don't accept the 2008 constitution. They have decided they will never run any election under the 2008 constitution. If these parties can take part in the election, the 2008 constitution can be amended." he said.

While Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing was meeting with the Russian President Putin

If a multi-party democratic general election was held, Myanmar would be really successful, said the SAC Chairman. Moreover, he expressed that elections would be held in December 2025 or in January 2026.

Although it was likely for the SAC to meet and discuss with the parties which have not got registration, it was unlikely for the SAC to meet with the parties which did not apply for registration, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News.

" When all the parties have been allowed to register, some parties don't apply for registration. It's their problem?. Some parties might not be built by their chairpersons, but by other elements behind the scene. The Union Election Commission will have to verify. How can the SAC discuss with the parties which have not got registration? This may be because of process. But how will the SAC discuss with the parties which didn't apply for registration under what title? It's impossible logically." he said.

While the Union Election Commission was meeting with political parties

The UEC rejected the applications of some parties although they applied to register again. Moreover, the UEC has imposed regulations and restrictions in order that some parties cannot register, some people pointed out.

At present, 53 parties have been enlisted to run the election and according to the political parties registration law that was imposed in January 2023, some of the restrictions were revised and published on January 30, 2024.

Some points that were revised contain: a party must have 50,000 members instead of 100,000 ninety days before the date when elections will be held and its offices must be opened in one-third of the townships across the country ninety days before elections and other points.

CNI News
13 March 2025

It was necessary to compromise politically by giving some incentives to armed organizations in order to stop armed conflicts, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP) Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News.

Suspension of armed conflicts was needed to win political goals and it would be necessary to compromise beyond the 2008 constitution, he said.

" Because a political displacement didn't arise, armed organizations arose. Armed revolution is to push politics. Only if armed conflicts can be resolved, political goals can be reached. So, political give and take are needed. So, we must be able to persuade armed organizations. It might not be convenient under the 2008 constitution. So, beyond the 2008 constitution, what kind of self-administration and self-determination will be offered? How will natural resources be allocated? What kind of new nation will be built with what kinds of compromises? These are incentives. How shall we persuade them to make them come to peace talks?" said Dr. Aye Maung.

A temporary ceasefire agreement was reached between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the MNDAA with China's brokered engagement.

While seeing leaders from the AA, the TNLA and the MNDAA

A video clip in which an administrative official from the MNDAA said that Kutkai, Theinni, Kunlong and Laukkai Districts had been officially designated as the Kokang Special Region-1 and officially granted self-government on the Chinese New Year Day, went viral on social media.

Although the TNLA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw met and discussed with China's brokered engagement, the discussion ended without any results and it would discuss again, reported the TNLA on 19th February 2025. Moreover, the AA and the SAC would meet and discuss in March with China's brokered engagement, according to those close to both sides.

All the leaders were invited and a discussion should be held to think over for the country and the people, vice chairman of the National Democratic Force Party (NDF), U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News.

" They have said that they will build a federal democratic union. It's necessary to negotiate carefully this time. The country has never been in such a bad situation. All the leaders should reconsider the country's situation for which all-inclusive discussion should be held. To tell you frankly about the current situation, all the leaders seem to be delayed to discuss. They have become warlords and are focusing on their interests. But the people are getting into trouble. County leaders, especially the main leader, have to think about it more." he said.

While seeing leaders of armed organizations and Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing

The AA has said that it wanted the confederation at least and at most the AA has a goal to build the Rakhine country while general secretary of the TNLA Maj-Gen Tar Bone Kyaw urged his people to get ready because the Palaung country would be built if needed.

In the same way, because ethnic groups would have thoughts that would be more than federalism in 2025, said Lt-Gen Gun Maw of the KIA during his meeting with Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.

EAOs should not demand what is impossible and they must negotiate what should be, said the SAC Chairman Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing on the plane which returned from Russia and Belarus on 9 March 2025.

CNI News
13 March 2025

Chinese Special Envoy Mr. Deng Xijun came and discussed on 11 March 2025 with the chairman of the State Administration Council Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing who returned from goodwill trips to Russia and Belarus.

The meeting was attended by associate secretary of the SAC General Ye Win Oo, member of the SAC and chairman of the NSPNC Lt-Gen Yar Pyae and Union Minister for Home Affairs Lt-Gen Tun Tun Naung.

Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing went on goodwill trips to Russia and Belarus from 3rd to 9th March and separately with the Russian President Putin and the Belarusian President Lukashenko and discussed matters relating to holding elections and economic investments.

Chinese Special Envoy Mr. Deng Xijun came to Myanmar and discussed with Deputy Prime Minister and FM U Than Swe on 10 March 2025.

The SAC chairman and Chinese Special Envoy discussed matters regarding the SAC's preparations for elections and constructive cooperation from China.

China's cooperation in the peace process of Myanmar, narcotic drug prevention and control activities, bilateral cooperation in eliminating online gambling and online financial fraud were discussed, reported the SAC.

In the same way, the SAC Chairman and Mr. Deng Xijun discussed matters regarding border trade as well.

China is mediating the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the Northern Alliance (AA-TNLA-MNDAA) in order to negotiate a ceasefire.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw and the MNDAA discussed on 16 January 2025 and reached a temporary ceasefire agreement with China's brokered engagement.

Although the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the TNLA discussed in China on 16 February 2025, the discussion ended without any agreements.

CNI News

12 March 2025

Chinese Special Envoy Mr. Deng Xijun arrived in Myanmar after a delegation led by SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing visited Russia and Belarus. He met with Deputy Prime Minister and FM, U Than Swe.

They discussed matters relating to cooperation between the two countries for further promoting peace and stability along the Myanmar-China border areas and the latest developments about internal peace and national reconciliation.

They discussed matters in relation to that China would continue to provide positive assistance to Myanmar in its efforts to achieve lasting peace and socio-economic development. 

Moreover, they also discussed enhancing cooperation between relevant organizations in the two countries to jointly combat online gambling and fraud networks, stated the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

At the invitations by the Russian President Putin and the Belarusian President Lukashenko, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing visited those countries on an official goodwill visit from March 3 to 9.

And then, the Chinese Special Envoy, Mr. Deng Xijun arrived in Myanmar again on 10th March after the SAC Chairman returned to Myanmar on 9 March 2025.

The SAC has planned to hold elections in Myanmar in December 2025 or in January 2026, said the SAC Chairman at a joint press conference with the Belarusian President Lukashenko.

CNI News

11 March 2025

There are questions among the people whether the Arakan Army will launch offensives to Sittwe. With China's brokered engagement, the AA probably will meet with the State Administration Council, according to those close to both sides. 

Sittwe was not so important to the discussion; the AA was increasing military operations in Sittwe kind of while preparations were being made to put the crisis on the discussion roundtable, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

" Sittwe is not the main cause. So, the AA is just threatening it kind of. Because the AA wants its ethnic rights or political right, it must have threatened Sittwe. And then it has to continue the dialogue means to win its political right. While preparations were being made to put the crisis on the discussion roundtable, it's increasing its military operations. Only when Sittwe can be captured, for example, will the peace talks be convenient, which is not right. If the EAO has capture the heart of the people and basic territories, it's just a great force. While the AA is launching offensives to the three Regions, Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing succeeded in diplomatic relations after returning from Russia. If both sides increase their power and compete, it will only cause more damage to the local people and the cities." he said.

While seeing the AA

The AA has been launching its offensives in Rakhine State since 13 November 2023 and after it had captured 14 townships, it released on 29 December 2024 it would solve the domestic problem through political means. 

Although it has reported that it will solve the problem through political means, battles are breaking out between the AA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw in Magway, Bago and Ayeyarwady Regions adjacent to Rakhine State.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw was not worried about Sittwe but mainly about that the AA was extending its operations in Ayeyarwady, Magway and Bago Regions, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.

"That the SAC is mainly worried about is not Sittwe, but about that the AA is launching offensives to Ayeyarwady, Magway and Bago Regions. They will try to negotiate it, I think. But the AA had announced that it would discuss. In my opinion, as the AA has had the upper hand militarily, which part must be stopped or which part must be suspended won't arise. So, if the peace talks were held, military negotiations probably won't take place, I think." he said.

At president, the AA is waging battles in Rakhine, Chin, Kachin States, northern Shan State, Bago, Ayeyarwady, Magway and Sagaing Regions and making attempts to win a political status that is not lower than the confederation.