CNI News

4 April 2026

Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai-Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News that he is concerned Myanmar—a pivotal country in the global political landscape—could become like Afghanistan due to the geopolitical tug-of-war between China and the United States.

"The situation in Myanmar is somewhat worrying due to the rivalry between China and the US," Sai Htay Aung said. "After World War II, the US dismantled Soviet Russia. In the post-Cold War era, they dismantled the EU. Now, China has become their primary competitor. Geographically, Myanmar is the best foothold to dismantle China's influence. Because of this, I worry that the people of Myanmar will be caught in a war zone. We are already in a period where civil war flames are burning. Furthermore, regarding the current global situation with Iran, I don't think the US can win that fight. If they withdraw, Iran aligns with China, allowing Chinese influence to gradually spread to the Middle East. Therefore, the US will try to break China, and I am very concerned that Myanmar will become a war zone like Afghanistan."

Military and political analysts point out that Myanmar is situated at a strategic geopolitical crossroads in the competition between China and the United States.

Illustration of China’s strategic goals for controlling Northern Shan State

For China: Myanmar is the primary route to bypass the potential blockade of the Malacca Strait. The "lifelines" for China include railways, roads, and oil/gas pipelines stretching from Yunnan Province to the Indian Ocean (Kyaukphyu, Rakhine State).

For the US: Myanmar is a vital location to contain China's expansion of influence.

Analysts suggest that while China attracts Myanmar by providing economic and political backing amidst Western sanctions, the US focuses on democracy and international pressure. Through legislation like the BURMA Act, the US supports Spring Revolution forces to elevate its regional role and pressure rulers close to China.

Currently, groups with good relations with the US—such as the KIA, CNF, and NUG—are collaborating with the AA, ABSDF, PDFs, and Naga insurgents to implement the Ka Thone Lone (Kanbalu-Kawlin-Katha) operation to control the Sagaing Region. Their goal is to link Kachin State, Sagaing Region, Chin State, and Rakhine State to liberate Northwest Myanmar.

China reportedly suspects the US is supporting the KIA’s efforts in the northwest. Consequently, China has utilized the MNDAA (Kokant army) in northern Shan State to control the "Kachin Sub-State" areas of Kutkai and Namkham to ensure security.

The Presidents of China and the United States

Political analyst Dr. An Kaw La told CNI News that in such geopolitically significant countries, armed groups can no longer look only at their own local interests.

"In the current situation, countries in significant geopolitical positions are facing Bipolarization," Dr. An Kaw La said. "They often suffer in the middle of the rivalry between two powers. This is true for Iran, and now Myanmar. Regarding the China containment policy, the Tanintharyi coast—with its seas and ports outside the Malacca Strait—is seen as an entry point for the West."

He added: "Myanmar is the primary alternative trade route (the Second Exit) for China to reach the Indian Ocean. Deep-sea ports like Kyaukphyu, Dawei, and Yangon have always been important to China, but they are even more critical now. These geopolitical maneuvers are arriving directly in Myanmar. As soon as fighting broke out in the area between Myeik and Dawei, we saw EAOs (Ethnic Armed Organizations) trusted by China taking control of territories in northern Shan State. They opened union roads and supply routes, preparing to decisively attack groups linked to the West. These developments are happening rapidly."

Military and political observers emphasize that the situation in Myanmar is a direct collision between China's Indian Ocean dream and the US policy of containment. Therefore, the Myanmar issue is not merely an internal affair but a crucial piece in the geopolitical game of global powers.

While it is currently difficult for Myanmar to maintain a balance between these two giants, the central government maintains a closer relationship with China.

CNI Interview

4 April 2026

In Myanmar, alongside the expanding armed conflicts, the rule of law has weakened and security guarantees remain fragile. Consequently, the public must present their National Registration Cards (NRC) or Citizen Verification Cards for security inspections when traveling by air, land, or sea.

However, some authorities have been using the stipulation that IDs must be exchanged at ages 18, 30, and 45 as a pretext. By comparing a traveler's age to their card, they demand money or cause travel delays if the ID has not been updated.

Regarding these situations, CNI News contacted the Ministry of Immigration and Manpower for an interview.

Q: Is there an official announcement from Immigration stating that IDs must be compulsorily exchanged?

A: Under the 1982 Myanmar Citizenship Law, we issue cards at age 10 and age 18. The procedures state that a holder should exchange their card upon reaching ages 18, 30, or 45.

While we do process these exchanges when citizens apply at those ages, there is no legal provision making it mandatory. Furthermore, we have not instructed security screening teams to check for these exchanges or to insist that citizens update them.

Ministry's responses shown in the document

Q: Many people cannot exchange their IDs because local Immigration offices are closed or they cannot return to their hometowns due to regional insecurity. Is there a plan to allow people to exchange IDs easily at their current location?

A: Those who cannot return to their registered permanent address should contact the Immigration office in their current area of residence. We have distributed leaflets and posted vinyl signs at offices regarding the necessary documentation. If the individual applies in person with the required evidence, the local office will issue a household list and proceed with the citizenship documentation process.

Q: For those unable to exchange their ID, can they use the government-issued Smart Card (UID) for air travel and ticket purchases?

A: The requirement to use an NRC card for purchasing flight tickets is determined by the regulations of the respective Ministry and the airlines.

Our Ministry issues the UID primarily to facilitate socio-economic activities, to provide a verification system for organizations offering online services, and to share registered data for administrative use.

Q: Are there instructions to strictly monitor whether IDs have been exchanged at airports and road checkpoints?

A: Inspections at airports and checkpoints are for security purposes to verify identity; there are no instructions to check whether an ID has been exchanged. However, travelers must present their ID if requested by an official for verification.

Ministry's responses shown in the document

Q: How will you supervise instances where money is being extorted or travel is being blocked based on whether an ID has been updated?

A: Inspections at joint checkpoints are solely to verify if the person matches their identity document for security. Authorities cannot demand money using the excuse that an ID hasn't been exchanged or that the photo is faded or unclear.

If money is demanded to allow passage, there are complaint phone numbers posted at those checkpoints. You can call those numbers and report the specific person, the gate, the date, and the time. You may also directly contact our Ministry’s office at 067-3431045 to file a report.

CNI News

4 April 2026

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has been elected as the President of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar, receiving the highest number of votes with 429 marks.

The presidential election of the Third Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (Union Parliament) was held today, April 3, in Nay Pyi Taw.

The election was held to determine the President, Vice President (1), and Vice President (2) from among the three individuals previously selected as Vice Presidential candidates: Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Daw Nan Ni Ni Aye, and U Nyo Saw.

Out of a total of 670 parliamentarians eligible to vote for the presidency, 584 members of the presidential electoral college were present today, resulting in a total of 584 cast votes.

According to the Constitution, three Vice Presidential candidates must initially be nominated. The candidate who receives the highest number of votes becomes the President, the second-highest becomes Vice President (1), and the candidate with the fewest votes becomes Vice President (2).

Consequently, U Nyo Saw, who received the second-highest number of votes, was elected as Vice President (1), while Daw Nan Ni Ni Aye, who received the fewest votes (29), was elected as Vice President (2).

CNI News

April 4, 2026

The Central Committee of the United Wa State Party (UWSP) stated in a congratulatory message sent today (April 3) to President U Min Aung Hlaing that the "Wa" region is an inseparable part of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar.

In the message, the UWSP Central Committee affirmed its firm stand "not to secede from the State or declare independent sovereignty." It further stated that the "Wa" State will steadfastly follow a path of peaceful development, promote ethnic equality, unity, and the socio-economic improvement of the people, and continue to maintain stability and peace in the border areas.

Furthermore, the message noted that they will continue to coordinate and cooperate with the Union Government under the framework of the Union. They aim to realize their political aspirations through peaceful negotiations. The UWSP expressed its firm belief that under the peace-building and long-term development efforts of the Union, the country will swiftly achieve peace, stability, national solidarity, rapid development, and prosperity for all ethnic people.

The message also praised the President, noting that during his tenure as Commander-in-Chief of the Defense Services, he dutifully fulfilled his responsibilities. It stated that his significant efforts and "outstanding achievements" in ensuring state stability, public security, peace, and socio-economic progress are noteworthy and commendable.

Constitutional Status: Under Section 56(c) of the 2008 Constitution, six townships in Shan State—Hopang, Mongmau, Panwai, Nahpan, Metman, and Pangsang (Pangkham)—were organized into the "Wa" Self-Administered Division.

Administrative Implementation: Administrative mechanisms were only fully implemented in 2011 after the 2010 General Election.

History: Following the 1989 ceasefire between the UWSA and the SLORC government, the area was designated as "Shan State Special Region (2)" before being redefined as a "Self-Administered Division" under the 2008 Constitution.

The Third Pyidaungsu Hluttaw presidential election was held today (April 3) in Nay Pyi Taw. Out of 584 votes, U Min Aung Hlaing received 429 votes, while U Nyo Saw received 126 and Daw Nan Ni Ni Aye received 29. Consequently, U Min Aung Hlaing was elected as the President of the State.

CNI News 

April 3, 2026

Vice-Senior General Soe Win, who retired from the Myanmar Armed Forces after handing over the position of Deputy Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services to General Kyaw Swar Linn, was recently seen shopping in public with his wife.

The retired Vice-Chief seen while out shopping. (Credit to the original owner)

On March 30, 2026, Vice-Senior General Soe Win officially transferred the duties of the Deputy Commander-in-Chief to General Kyaw Swar Linn, who previously served as the Coordinator of Special Operations (Army, Navy, and Air).

Following his retirement from the military, images have surfaced on social media showing Vice-Senior General Soe Win peacefully shopping among civilians with his family.

CNI News

April 3, 2026

Politicians and members of parliament(Hluttaw) have stated that, according to the law, MPs are prohibited from publicly disclosing or discussing a motion before it has been heard in parliament.

Myanmar's parliamentary motion submission and legislative processes are systematically managed under the laws and rules of the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (Union Parliament), Pyithu Hluttaw (House of Representatives), and Amyotha Hluttaw (House of Nationalities).

Specifically, Rule 62 (d) of the parliamentary bylaws stipulates that no motion shall be published or announced before the Speaker (Chairperson) has granted permission.

Dr. Aye Maung, Chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP): Dr. Aye Maung confirmed to CNI News that laws exist preventing media disclosure prior to parliamentary submission.

"It is difficult to go into every detail, but there is a specific law. If a motion intended for parliament is discussed or debated outside before the hearing, the parliament cannot accept those discussions. This was established during the first parliament. If a motion is mentioned in an interview or appears in the media beforehand, it can no longer be submitted or discussed; the Speaker has the right to reject it under parliamentary law. You only have the right to speak to the media after it has been presented in the Hluttaw."

U Aung Lin Dwe, Speaker of the Amyotha Hluttaw.

U Hla Swe, Member of the Pyithu Hluttaw: U Hla Swe reiterated that these rules apply across all three levels of the Union Parliament.

"This is a law enacted by the parliament itself and cannot be violated. You cannot give motions or questions to news agencies before they are presented. If the law is broken, those questions and motions will be rejected."

U Shu Maung, Chairman of the Naga National Party (NNP): U Shu Maung suggested that the strictness of the law might be intended to maintain order during the early stages of the parliamentary term.

"I think they want to avoid unnecessary complications and public confusion that might arise from widespread outside debate before the Speaker has even accepted the motion. Since this is the beginning of the parliamentary term, the intention seems to be ensuring systematic and careful discussion."

The Speaker and Deputy Speaker of the Pyithu Hluttaw.

To submit a motion, MPs must sign the proposal and send it to the Director General of the relevant parliamentary office to seek the Speaker's approval. There are five types of motions handled in parliament:, Ordinary Motions, Important (Urgent) Motions, Motions of Condolence, Motions of Congratulations, Motions of Impeachment.

The Mandate of the Parliament The Speaker of the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw, U Aung Lin Dwe, has urged MPs to prioritize the national interest and the welfare of citizens over personal or party bias, emphasizing mutual respect during negotiations.

The primary roles of the parliament include: Legislating based on the will of the people. Oversight of government actions.

Decision-making on national affairs to ensure the rule of law, democratic accountability, and sustainable peace.

CNI News

April 3, 2026

Dr. Aye Maung, Chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), told CNI News that even if the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) fails to act in the upcoming parliament, the military can still implement the 43 constitutional amendments agreed upon between the National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) and the political parties' working group.

During the 81st Armed Forces Day parade on March 27, 2026, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing stated that efforts would be made in the Union Parliament to amend the 2008 Constitution based on the 43 agreed points and the Union Accords compiled from peace conference results.

Dr. Aye Maung suggested that if the USDP does not lead the motion for these 43 amendments, the responsibility might shift to the military appointees in parliament.

"The leadership for these amendments could shift to the military representatives, or the USDP could lead the effort. Regarding constitutional reform within parliament, they could follow the process of the first parliament—submitting a motion and forming a working committee to finalize the 43 points plus the National Accords. These could then be submitted to the Union Parliament for approval within a set timeframe. The Senior General himself said it: if the USDP doesn't do it, the military will. Under the Constitution, if 20% of lawmakers sign a motion, it must be addressed. The military representatives account for more than 20% of the total seats in the Amyotha Hluttaw and Pyithu Hluttaw. If the USDP joins them, the motion will certainly be valid."

 Discussion between the NSPNC and the political parties' group.

Dr. Aye Maung added that there seems to be a strong conviction that the original authors of the Constitution should be the ones to amend it. He predicted that motions regarding constitutional reform will likely emerge in parliament after the upcoming Thingyan (Water Festival) period.

"There appears to be a firm belief that those who originally drafted this Constitution should be the ones to change it. Even if some figures from mainland parties, U Ko Ko Gyi, or U Sai Aik Pao are not involved, the goal is already set. The motion for amendment will likely appear during the second session of the third parliament. To be frank, these tasks—including constitutional reform—must be completed within the two-and-a-half-year term of the Speaker of the Union Parliament, led by General Aung Lin Dwe. They will work tirelessly over the coming year to reach an acceptable standard for the Constitution. Therefore, I am 99% certain that motions for constitutional reform will appear after Thingyan."

In January 2025, the NSPNC and political parties met to discuss constitutional reform. The points approved for amendment include:10 points from Chapter (1) of the Constitution.7 points regarding the Legislature. 3 points regarding the Heads of State. Approximately 10 points regarding the Executive.

While leaders like Dr. Aye Maung, U Ko Ko Gyi, Sai Aik Pao, and Dr. Aung Myat Oo led the negotiations for the political parties' group, none of them secured seats in the 2025 general election. This has raised questions about who will formally introduce these 43 points to the floor.

Signing ceremony for the 43-point agreement on constitutional reform.

U Ko Ko Gyi, Chairman of the People’s Party (PP), told CNI that the role of elected representatives and military appointees will be crucial since the final decisions must be made within parliament.

"We understand that the military representatives have already agreed to these points. We now have to wait and see if the majority winning party will lead the submission. Since the parliament makes the final decision, the role of elected members and military appointees is paramount. Actually, beyond these 43 points, there are other matters we agreed to discuss further. It would be better if those are combined into the draft bill. It should be noted that while some points were proposed for change by the NSPNC or the political parties, after discussion, both sides agreed to keep some sections as they are. So, the '43 points' isn't just about changes; it includes agreements on what not to change as well."

The 2025 General Election was held in three phases from December 28, 2025, to January 25, 2026. Parliament has already convened to elect Speakers, Deputy Speakers, and Vice-Presidential candidates. The selection of the President and the formation of the new government are expected to proceed in April.

CNI News

April 3, 2026

Military and political analysts told CNI News that if the newly convened parliament(Hluttaw) and the incoming government, set to take office this April, fail to implement peace processes, the people of Myanmar will continue to suffer.

In the complex political landscape following nearly 80 years of armed conflict and the 2021 political transition, a political analyst told CNI that achieving peace must be a primary objective for the incoming administration.

"If peace cannot be achieved, the primary victims will be the citizens. Furthermore, production, agriculture, and the economy will decline across all sectors. As conditions deteriorate, the situation is bound to worsen," the analyst said. "Currently, border trade has almost vanished, meaning people cannot sell their produce. Essential goods from abroad must be purchased at high prices. Meanwhile, the government is unable to collect taxes. It is a lose-lose situation. Therefore, peace is urgently needed. Additionally, China is dissatisfied with the decline in border trade and wants the gates reopened. Given these factors, I believe achieving peace is a major task that the next government must prioritize."

Vice President U Min Aung Hlaing and former KNU Chairman Mutu Say Poe.

The multi-party general election was held from December 28, 2025, to January 25, 2026. In March 2026, the Pyithu Hluttaw (Lower House), Amyotha Hluttaw (Upper House), and Regional/State Parliaments were convened.

Following the selection of parliamentary leadership, three Vice Presidents have been nominated: Senior General Min Aung Hlaing (Nominated by the elected Pyithu Hluttaw group), Daw Nan Ni Ni Aye (Nominated by the elected Amyotha Hluttaw group), U Nyo Saw (Nominated by the Military Appointees group), One of these three will be elected as President. According to the Constitution, the candidate with the most votes becomes President, the runner-up becomes Vice President (1), and the third becomes Vice President (2).

Significant changes have also occurred within the military leadership:, General Ye Win Oo has assumed the role of Commander-in-Chief of Defense Services.

General Kyaw Swar Lin (formerly Chief of the General Staff (Army, Navy and Air) has been appointed as Deputy Commander-in-Chief of Defense Services.

Colonel Khun Okkar, Chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), told CNI that if the new government and parliament can restart political dialogues and peace processes, some armed conflicts could subside before the end of this year.

"If political dialogues and peace processes can truly restart, then even if weapons remain, a ceasefire is essential for building the trust necessary for political talks. If the new government and parliament can initiate this, we can say some armed conflicts might quiet down by year's end. Remaining conflicts might only persist in the central regions, where they likely wouldn't be as substantial. It is time to restart the peace process because the country is being destroyed—bombs are falling, and conflicts are ongoing. Slowing down this momentum is the responsibility of the new parliament and government. I believe they will prioritize this. Doing so is the only way they can gain recognition from ASEAN, neighboring countries, and the international community. If they don't, the rhetoric of non-recognition will persist, and it will be difficult for them to break out of that cycle."

 Leaders of armed organizations.

Military and political observers believe that a parliament must have duties beyond just legislation; it needs the power to monitor and balance the government's actions and must be able to act on the voices of ethnic minorities and various social classes.

Currently, analysts suggest that because the significance of territories held by various Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) differs, separate individual negotiations may be necessary. They pointed out that:

Trust Building: The main barrier to dialogue is currently the lack of mutual trust.

Federalism: Myanmar's peace depends entirely on the establishment of a Federal Democratic Union.

Sustainability: Agreements regarding self-determination and resource sharing will be the keys to sustainable peace.

The experts concluded that the new government must practically implement the aspirations of the local people across the various states to ensure a lasting resolution.

CNI News

April 2, 2026

Military and political analysts told CNI News that it remains to be seen how China, India, and Bangladesh—three nations with significant interests in Rakhine State—will engage with the Arakkha Army (AA).

Rakhine State is home to China’s Kyaukpyu Deep Sea Port project, India’s Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project, and Bangladesh’s border trade routes, while also serving as a vital gateway to the sea.

U Myo Kyaw, spokesperson for the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA), told CNI News that even if these three countries are reluctant to officially recognize the AA, they will have to engage in discussions because the AA currently holds de facto sovereignty over Rakhine State.

"The scope is vast. India and Bangladesh share borders with Rakhine State. On the other hand, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a global project, and China is one of the world's leading superpowers. Its strategic 'Ocean Dream' is centered in Rakhine State. All these factors are interconnected, making Rakhine geopolitically critical. Furthermore, India has seven landlocked states connected to Myanmar; their trade and access to the sea depend on Rakhine State. Even if these countries don't officially recognize the AA, some Indian states already acknowledge them, and there are likely behind-the-scenes discussions happening. They have to talk. If they don't speak with the AA, who currently holds sovereignty in Rakhine, they stand to lose a lot in terms of investment, logistics, and bilateral trade. Even if they don't want to, they must maintain a relationship." — U Myo Kyaw.

The route of the India-Myanmar Kaladan River Project.

China: China maintains the closest and most influential relationship with the AA. The AA has publicly pledged to protect Chinese projects. Analysts note that the AA receives arms and technology from the UWSA (United Wa State Army), which is close to China. Additionally, China has hosted the "Haigen Talks" between the military and the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which includes the AA.

Bangladesh: Dhaka views the AA as a central player in the repatriation of refugees. The AA has signaled a willingness for peaceful coexistence, recognizing Muslims in Rakhine as "Muslims of Rakhine descent." With official trade routes with the central government cut off, both sides are interested in restarting border trade through AA-controlled territories.

India: India’s primary investment, the Kaladan Project, passes through Paletwa and other parts of Rakhine now controlled by the AA. While India has strategic concerns regarding the AA’s closeness to China, it is forced to interact with the AA to ensure the safety of its projects.

A political analyst told CNI News that while China needs the central government's agreement for its projects, it has reportedly deterred the AA from seizing Kyaukpyu to maintain a functional link with the central authorities.

AA Leader, General Tun Myat Naing.

"All three countries are considering how to deal with the AA, which controls most of Rakhine. For example, India is trying to ensure smooth trade through the Kaladan River up to its northeast. Under previous governments, their work was hindered by AA arrests and interference. To work without disruption now, they must have a good relationship with the AA. China has massive strategic goals, like the Kyaukpyu Deep Sea Port. Since they know they need the central government's signature for such large projects, they have reportedly told the AA not to seize Kyaukpyu."

The analyst added that while agreements with the central government exist on paper, these nations must build relationships with the AA to protect their interests on the ground.

"Bangladesh needs border trade routes to remain open. To resolve the issue of 'Bengali' (Rohingya) refugees, they need to get along with the AA, who actually governs the area. Discussions with the Myanmar government only yield results on paper. On the ground, the AA is the dominant force."

Currently, the AA has captured almost all townships in Rakhine State, including Paletwa, with the exceptions of Kyaukpyu, Sittwe, and Manaung.

Beyond Rakhine, the AA is active in northern Shan State as part of the Brotherhood Alliance and conducts joint military operations with Kachin and Chin armed groups, as well as broader "Spring Revolution" forces.