CNI News

11 November 2025

Observers of military and political affairs say that the reason armed organizations have become so numerous in Myanmar must be properly examined and addressed.

According to Major Colonel Khun Okkar, Chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO/NCA-S), the country’s armed conflicts originated from political crises that began with the 1947 Constitution, and have continued to multiply even under the current 2008 Constitution.
He told CNI News,

“The emergence of armed groups depends largely on the vision of the leaders who handled the country at the time it became independent. Those leaders prioritized a unitary system rather than a true federal one. Although they used the name ‘Union,’ they designed the 1947 Constitution in a way that prevented federalism. They also ignored the Panglong Agreement and failed to ensure equality. They hid a unitary system behind the name of a union, and because of that dishonesty, the problems began there. From that time, the Communist Party split off, and Karen took up arms. Armed conflict has continued for more than 70 or 80 years. During that entire period, there has never been genuine independence or full democratic rights. The beginning was flawed, so the outcome could never be stable. The Panglong Agreement was never implemented, and the constitution was not honest either. From that flawed foundation arose political crises, which led to armed conflicts.”

Meeting of various armed organizations

On February 1, 2021, the Myanmar military seized power from the National League for Democracy (NLD) government, claiming that it did not resolve the 2020 general election voter list irregularities and tried to form a government.

After declaring a state of emergency, the military took control of the country. In response, various armed groups launched revolutions to overthrow the military regime.

Dr. Nyo Nyo Thin, founder of the Yangon Watch Group, told CNI News that the proliferation of armed groups is also tied to economic benefits associated with taking up arms:

Tatmadaw leaders and armed groups

“Especially after the 2021 political upheaval, the number of armed groups and armed forces increased. This stemmed from differing political ideologies and opposition to the military takeover, which triggered bloodshed. When different sides tried to solve political problems through political means, they were too weak to succeed. As a result, each side spread only the information that benefited their own cause. This caused the public’s access to accurate information to reach its lowest point. Because of that lack of true information, misunderstandings grew, armed conflicts intensified, and many profit-seeking groups emerged from the fighting. Once weapons came into their hands, many small groups found ways to benefit economically, making them reluctant to disarm. Although their stated purpose was political, it became clear that armed struggle itself brought economic advantage. This is why the number of armed groups has continued to grow, even unintentionally.”

Military and political analysts further point out that since 2021, both government institutions and armed groups have increasingly focused on serving their own interests.

Moreover, these armed groups have not only multiplied but have also expanded their control in their respective areas. They now collect taxes, permit mining and extraction of local resources, trade weapons, and engage in illicit businesses such as drug trafficking and smuggling to sustain their operations.

Up to the present day, no effective solution or practical approach has been found to reduce or eliminate Myanmar’s numerous armed groups.

CNI News

10 November  2025

In Myanmar today, while many armed resistance groups claim to be fighting against dictatorship, they are increasingly adopting authoritarian practices themselves, according to military and political analysts.

Although Myanmar has long been home to multiple armed groups, hundreds of new ones have emerged since the political changes that followed February 1, 2021.

However, despite their stated goals, these groups have failed to reach any ceasefire agreement or political settlement that could end the ongoing conflicts.

Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News that those fighting dictatorship must be careful not to become dictators themselves, and should also avoid ethnic discrimination while claiming to build a federal democratic system.

“If you look at the KIA as an example — they say they’re fighting for federalism and democracy, but among those under their control, there’s still strong ethnic discrimination.

Protesters calling for democracy

They need to practice fairness themselves. Many of these armed groups say they’re fighting dictatorship, but they’ve started acting in the same authoritarian way. Some are even worse. If you’re fighting against dictatorship, you must be very careful not to do the same things yourself.  If your actions cause the country to be destroyed or its image ruined, it’s better not to do them at all. When armed groups begin to threaten civilians, we have to ask the SSPC — how should we engage or negotiate with such groups? If they can’t be controlled, then we’ll have to respond militarily. When independence was gained, there were fewer than ten armed groups. Now there are over a hundred, which has become a heavy burden on the public.”, he said.

Across Myanmar today, fierce clashes are ongoing both between the military (Tatmadaw) and armed resistance groups, and also among the groups themselves.

Colonel Khun Okkar, Chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO/NCA-S), told CNI News that authoritarianism can come from any side — military or civilian — and that without restoring democracy, dictatorship will inevitably return.

Armed groups, military leaders, and political parties seen

“Dictatorship can come from the army, from civilians, from local warlords, even from ethnic armed leaders. When a system is bad, revolution to change it is justified. But if you remove one dictator only to have another take power, nothing truly changes — just the person, not the system.To eliminate dictatorship, you must promote its opposite — democracy. When democracy becomes strong, dictatorship won’t return. But if democracy isn’t rebuilt, even if one dictator disappears, another will rise. In Myanmar, there have already been three coups. Between 2010 and 2020, we failed to make democracy stable. Because those governments didn’t strengthen democracy, political upheaval happened again.”, he said.

On February 1, 2021, Myanmar’s military ousted the NLD government, claiming it failed to address alleged irregularities in the 2020 general election voter lists.

After seizing power, the military declared a state of emergency and took control of the country. In response, various armed groups launched an armed resistance movement aimed at overthrowing the military junta.

Analysts note that in this ongoing political crisis, both sides have embraced a “you’re either with us or against us” mentality, leading to widespread suppression and conflict.

CNI News

10 November 2025

The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), a Muslim armed group, recently declared that it would attack, seize, and govern Rakhine State, sparking analysis and debate among military and political observers about the reasons behind such a statement.

ARSA made this claim during its 9th anniversary gathering, asserting that it would take control of Rakhine State through military action.

According to Dr. Aye Maung, Chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), the statement was a morale-boosting message aimed at mobilizing public support, rather than a realistic military objective.

“Whether it’s an armed group or a political party, they all need public support.

Armed groups that have popular backing and political parties supported by the public are the ones that can represent their people’s political aspirations. So, whether it’s ARSA or another Bengali-related political organization, they have their own communities.

 AA leaders

They’re trying to organize and inspire them with hope — that’s just part of the usual mobilization process. So ARSA’s statement is also in that vein.”, he said.

Reports from local Rakhine media stated that ARSA has built new training camps near the Bangladesh border, close to Ukhia and Naikhongchari, north of Maungdaw Township.

Currently, ARSA has been launching sporadic attacks on AA (Arakan Army) bases along the Bangladesh border and is accused of assaulting, abducting, and killing civilians in Maungdaw, Buthidaung, and Rathedaung townships, according to local sources.

Military and political analysts believe that if ARSA were ever to seize territory in Rakhine, Maungdaw and Buthidaung would be the only possible areas.

However, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs analyst, told CNI News that it is impossible for ARSA to actually capture and govern Rakhine State.

“Anyone can make grand claims. But even survival is already difficult for them. Their relations with AA aren’t good either, and AA keeps winning successive victories. I don’t think it’s realistic — they’re just talking.”, she said.

Currently, the AA is prioritizing operations in northern Maungdaw, setting up bases, patrols, and offensives along the Mayu mountain range to drive ARSA out of the area.

A scene from inside Rakhine State

Political analyst U Kyi Myint commented that AA’s approach to handling ARSA was too soft and cautious.

“They’re being overly gentle. The responsible authorities will have to deal with it. I don’t want to say much, but I even wrote on Facebook that we won’t cooperate with infiltrators — we’ll only ally with those who share the same culture as the Rakhine people. That’s all I want to say.”, he said.

In the AA-controlled northern parts of Rakhine State, such as Maungdaw, Buthidaung, and Rathedaung, ARSA attacks have increased significantly throughout 2025.
Between May and October, around 50 civilians were killed in ARSA assaults, according to local Rakhine news agencies.

Observers note that ARSA has become more active than before in 2025, primarily targeting civilians rather than engaging in major military confrontations.

Military and political analysts are also questioning whether the AA can effectively contain ARSA’s expanding operations in northern Rakhine State.

CNI News

10 November 2025

The Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) is not legally favored in the upcoming election, but current political circumstances seem to tilt in its favor, according to U Li Paw Reh, chairman of the Lisu National Development Party (Dulei Party), speaking to CNI News.

“If the political situation were normal, things would be fair. But under the current situation, since the political environment is what it is, the USDP seems to have the advantage. They have been building a strong foundation for a long time, while some other political parties—both new and old—have not been able to build such a solid base. That’s why the USDP appears to be in a stronger position now. By ‘advantage,’ I mean, for example, their unopposed wins in 28 constituencies. The law itself doesn’t favor them, but due to the current political climate, they’ve ended up in a favorable position. That’s how we see it,” he said.

According to political analysts, in the first phase of the election scheduled for December 28, 2025, 28 USDP candidates have already secured victory since they are running unopposed, with no competitors from other parties.

List of candidates who have won before the election

The USDP is also the party fielding the largest number of candidates, with over 1,000 contesting constituencies nationwide.

Currently, several senior lieutenant generals from the military are expected to compete as USDP candidates in the upcoming election.

Sources indicate that within the USDP, differences in opinion may arise between the party’s long-standing members and new entrants from the military.

 USDP party members seen

Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs analyst, told CNI News:

“They’re basically playing their own game. Anyone with real potential has been blocked out—it’s a clear situation. The USDP just wants to win the majority of votes for itself and doesn’t intend to share power. Think about it—figures like Daw Thet Thet Khine could have contributed something for the people, but even such individuals are not given a chance. The party wants to keep everything within itself. There will likely be growing differences between the old USDP members and the new military-linked entrants. The generals joining the party may see it as an opportunity, but I think it could actually pose more danger for them. Conflicts and divisions are bound to emerge,” she said.

Although 57 parties have registered to contest in the election, the NLD and other credible opposition parties are not participating, leading many to predict that the USDP will win most of the constituencies.

CNI News

8 November 2025

The Chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), Colonel Khun Okkar, told CNI News that the KIA is not a group that will disrupt the election.

In a speech on the occasion of the 65th Founding Anniversary of the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) on October 25, 2025, General N'Ban La said that the way to beautifully end the battles and military situation is through political discussion and consultation.

He also noted that the upcoming election would see two opposing groups emerge—those who support it and those who oppose it—which could make discussion difficult and prolong the internal conflict.

Colonel Khun Okkar's View:

Because some Kachin political parties will participate in the upcoming election, the KIO/KIA will never oppose its own people. Therefore, it is unlikely to be a group that will disrupt the election, said Colonel Khun Okkar.

Caption: The NUG and the Chin Brotherhood

Colonel Khun Okkar stated to CNI News, "There are Kachin political parties. About two or three parties. Just as there is a Lisu party, there is a party led by Tuja from the Kachin State side. Since there are such parties, if the KIO says it opposes the election, it would have to oppose the political parties led by its former KIO members. They will never oppose each other. That is clear. The Kachin political parties running in the election can freely participate. Disrupting the election would be like disrupting the rights and political opportunities of the Kachin political parties. The KIO will not do that. However, other armed groups and Spring Revolution groups are demanding that the election must be disrupted, which we see as interference in other people's national affairs. That is why the KIO is not an organization that will disrupt the election. But I also do not think he will allow other forces to disrupt the election within KIO territory."

Military and political observers are speculating that the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Myanmar Tatmadaw (military) may meet in November or December, before Phase 1 of the election scheduled for December 28, 2025.

KIO/KIA Chairman General N'Ban La stated on October 25, 2025, that the KIO is continuously contemplating and seeking solutions for peace for the entire country and all ethnic organizations during this political transition.

Caption: While the Yaw Army and KIA leader Lt-Gen Gun Maw were meeting in Laiza

Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai Leng(Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News that the KIO/KIA's failure to publicly oppose the election, despite having many revolutionary forces under its command, indicates political shrewdness and fear of being declared a terrorist organization, like the KNU.

He said, "Colonel Naw Bu also said in the past that there would be no election in KIO-controlled areas. His shrewdness is about this issue. There are many revolutionary forces on the KIA side. There are many in the Hpakant region now. There are over twenty thousand PDFs. We also hear about conflicts. Since the revolutionary forces have to rely on the KIA's supplies, if the KIA were to take a firm stand with the revolutionary forces and speak out decisively against the election, it is very afraid of being declared a terrorist organization like the KNU. Its strategy is to sit on the fence, supporting both sides. It will not speak out unilaterally to destroy the election by firmly standing with the revolutionary forces."

Since the KIO/KIA appears to be opening a path for dialogue and peace, military and political observers are questioning whether the revolutionary forces under its command share the same view as the KIO/KIA.

The KIA has proposed to the State Security and Peace Commission to hold a ceasefire meeting in Myitkyina, but the Tatmadaw prefers to meet in Mongla or Kengtung.

Therefore, while there is a plan for a meeting between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the KIA, the meeting location has not yet been decided.

CNI News

8 November 2025

People's Party (PP) Chairman U Ko Ko Gyi says ASEAN must review its policies and positions to become a stronger organization.

The People's Party (PP) Chairman U Ko Ko Gyi told CNI News on November 5, 2025, that ASEAN needs to review its policies and positions to become a robust organization.

Major General Zaw Min Tun, Spokesperson for the National Defence and Security Council (NDSC), stated that all ASEAN members need to be mindful of the fundamental principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other nations.

U Ko Ko Gyi views ASEAN as fundamentally divided into two parts and believes that for it to be a strong institution, the policies and positions established at its founding must be reviewed.

Caption: While an ASEAN meeting was being held

He stated, "Movement within the law—whether in a party or a region—if the law needs to be amended, everyone should gather and try to amend it. If it cannot be amended, you have to try to operate and decide within the existing framework. So, for ASEAN, when it was first established, the consensus was that an action can only be taken with the agreement of all; if one country objected, it could not be done. However, in practice, we see movements that are not organizational in nature. That is why I believe that ASEAN itself needs to re-examine and review itself."

Dr. Aye Maung, Chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), told CNI News that ASEAN should not interfere in the internal affairs of a member state and that there is a discrepancy between ASEAN's founding objectives and its current actions.

He elaborated, "The original objectives of ASEAN's founding and the actions currently being encountered seem a little different. Interference, no matter how, means whether the government in Myanmar changes or not. That should be acknowledged. When an internal issue is handled as a domestic matter, for example, after the [2020 election], the SAC referred to itself as having emerged under its Constitution, according to the emergency provisions, which is a temporary period. So, it should be assessed within the framework of its emergency constitution. When this happens with a one-sided view, relationships weaken further. So, the issue of interfering in internal affairs also arises."

Caption: Dr. Aye Maung

Major General Zaw Min Tun also noted that if all ASEAN member states abide by the ASEAN Charter, the ASEAN Way, and the ASEAN Spirit that they have all agreed upon, it would lead to greater unity and benefit for the member states.

On February 1, 2021, the Myanmar military removed the NLD government, alleging it attempted to form a government without resolving disputes over the 2020 general election voter lists, and declared a state of emergency.

Subsequently, ASEAN intervened in the Myanmar issue and excluded Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and military leaders from ASEAN meetings.

CNI News

8 November 2025

The peace process and ceasefire efforts in Myanmar should be carried out as a national process rather than within the term of a particular government, said U Ko Ko Gyi, Chairman of the People’s Party (PP), to CNI News.

Observers of political and military affairs point out that peace cannot be achieved without addressing the fundamental causes of conflict—such as historical backgrounds, ideological differences, and political convictions.

They added that concepts such as maintaining a single national army, recognizing ethnic armed organizations, and granting self-administered regions are all security-based perspectives that cannot be achieved in a short period of time.

U Ko Ko Gyi emphasized that peace is not something that can be accomplished all at once, but rather a continuous national process.

Meeting between leaders of armed groups and the Tatmadaw

“Successive governments have all worked toward peace. But peace is not something that can be completed in one sitting. We must gradually hold broader and more inclusive dialogues. It’s unrealistic for any side to expect to achieve all their goals at once. That’s why we should treat peace as an ongoing process—one that aims for better, more progressive outcomes step by step. It shouldn’t be tied to the term of a government. Peace should be approached and implemented as a national process,” he told CNI News.

Military and political analysts also note that there are various ideas, thoughts, and approaches involved in carrying out peace efforts.

U Ko Ko Gyi further said that political demands should be made formally within the political framework in order to produce sustainable political results.

“Even though there are clashes and gunfire, there must still be communication channels between both sides. Political demands and aspirations can be formally expressed within the political framework.Whe n armed groups seize towns, they may gain control temporarily, but if the other side regains strength, they will seize them back—it becomes a never-ending cycle. That’s why we need to ensure that issues like equality for ethnic nationalities, federalism, separation of powers, and resource sharing are addressed and institutionalized through constitutional reform. Only then can we say the results are legitimate and lasting. Therefore, we need to work toward stable political outcomes,” he explained.

U Aung Min (then Chairman of MPC under President Thein Sein) meeting with Colonel Sai Ngin from the RCSS

In Myanmar, whenever a new government takes office, the people, policies, and organizations involved in the peace process tend to change as well.

As a result, the structures and trust built by previous governments often collapse, leading to stagnation in the peace process.

Currently, fierce fighting continues between the Myanmar military and various ethnic armed groups, while the peace process remains stalled and far from realization.

CNI News

7 November 2025

Political analysts point out that winning an election without any competition feels unusual, and a candidate is only considered dignified if they win after facing rivals.

Although Myanmar's Election Phase (1) is scheduled for December 28, 2025, some political party candidates are winning seats without rival candidates because the constituencies where the elections will be held lack security guarantees.

Among these candidates, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) has 28 members, while the Wa National Party, Akha National Development Party, and Shan and Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP) each have 1 member winning uncontested.

The areas where they have won are constituencies in Kachin State, Sagaing Region, Magway Region, Tanintharyi Region, and Shan State.

The Shan and Nationalities Democratic Party

Political analyst U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News that winning a thoroughly contested election is better, and becoming a representative by running alone and crossing the finish line without a competitor is strange.

He said, "The main thing is that since the other parties couldn't compete in 28 places, there's not much that can be done. It's difficult for other parties to enter these areas. Some try to prepare to contest in those areas, but they face pressure. We hear about those kinds of situations. It doesn't look good when a single candidate runs and wins without the need for a choice, but one thing is that these areas are currently very difficult for other parties to operate in; it's quite hard to enter. Whatever the case, winning a thoroughly contested election is better. It's also strange for a representative who runs alone and wins because there are no rivals. Winning without competition itself is strange. Whatever it is, how many votes you win is a matter of dignity for a candidate. That is better."

The townships where only USDP candidates will be elected for the Pyithu Hluttaw (Lower House) include Naungmon, Mansi, and Shwegu in Kachin State; and Monywa, Wuntho, Mawlaik, Kani, Salin, and Ye-U in Sagaing Region. Additionally, Yebyu and Launglon in Tanintharyi Region, and Matman and Pekhon in Shan State are included.

For the Region/State Hluttaws, the USDP has won 8 seats in Sagaing Region from townships including Kawlin, Wuntho, Taze, Budalin, Mawlaik, Kani, Salin, and Ye-U.

The Wa National Party

U Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai-Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News that since only one candidate is nominated in some constituencies, according to the constitution, if there is no rival, that candidate will win, and there should be no disadvantage.

He said, "That is according to the constitution. If there is no one competing, they will win. I believe there won't be any disadvantage. For the Akha ethnic affairs, since we nominated only one person, there's no need to compete. He will become the minister. When the commission announces the election results after everything is completed, he won't need to compete. The same goes for one person from the 'Wa' area. He is also nominated alone for the Amyotha Hluttaw (Upper House) and doesn't need to compete. Since this is carried out according to the constitution, I don't see any disadvantage. The people who are trying to destroy the election will be threatening. They are threatening other election candidates as well. They are threatening everyone who participates in the election."

According to the Election Law, Chapter (9), Section 41 (a), if there is only one candidate in a constituency, the election does not need to be held, and that candidate shall be declared the winner.

The parties with the highest number of candidates nominated for the election are the USDP, followed by the National Unity Party (NUP/Ta Sa Nya), then the People's Pioneer Party (PPP), the People's Party, and the Shan and Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP).

CNI News

1 November 2025

Political analyst Dr. Aung Myo told CNI News Agency that a Military Service Exemption Tax Bill has been drafted and submitted to the relevant authorities for people in Myanmar who do not wish to serve in the military for various reasons.

The People's Military Service Law was enacted on February 10, 2024, with the aim of ensuring national defense and security duties, and currently, the 17th batch of public military service training is underway.

Dr. Aung Myo, a political analyst, told CNI News Agency that a draft law titled the "Exemption Tax from Serving Public Military Service" has already been prepared, and if the State approves this bill, it will be able to salvage the current situation.

He said "It's my idea. I have drafted a bill called the 'Military service exemption tax,' which is an exemption tax from serving in the public military service. I wrote it and asked for assistance from Captain Khin Maung Sint of the Veterans' Organization to submit the veteran's sentiment to the State. However, the law has not been enacted yet. If it is approved, and people who do not want to serve in the military for various reasons can gain exemption by paying a tax, then the young people, skilled workers, and professionals who have left the country will return. When they return, the country's economy will improve, and the population will increase. Essentially, we need to release that law as a political exit strategy and maintain control."

Military and political observers point out that due to the Military Service Law in Myanmar, many young people are leaving the country, and as a result of being called up for military service, the working-age youth population is decreasing.

Furthermore, military and political observers point out that along with the population decrease, the country is facing conditions such as labor shortages, slowing production, and the dangers associated with a declining population.

Currently, intense fighting is occurring between the Myanmar Armed Forces and armed groups, leading both sides to intensify efforts to call up or arrest young people for military service.

Consequently, political parties and political analysts are attempting various methods to stop the recruitment efforts of the armed organizations.