CNI News

26 October 2024

Military and political analysts are pondering and discussing how the union based on federal and democracy will be built. 

It was necessary to understand the essence of federal democracy or democracy federal or federal and democracy, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News.

" Frankly speaking, no matter what federal democracy or democracy federal is based, we need to understand thoroughly the essence of federal or democracy. The problem is that rather than federal is followed by democracy or democracy is followed by federal, we need to use the essence of federal or democracy. It should be focused on, I think." he said.

It was necessary to make young people who are typical politicians and understand policies partly take part in politics, he added. "  A real politician is really interested in politics and studies it. Young people who thoroughly understand theories and policies should participate proportionally. If so, we will reach on the convenient and smooth track because young people will serve the State responsibilities in future." he said.

While seeing a variety of ethnicities

If a democracy was wanted to be built, the solution must be found through election, Hluttaw and political dialogue and if the solution was found by armed means, internal conflicts would never end, pointed out political commentators. 

Four political agreements were reached to go from state strengthening policy to the union strengthening policy in order to build a federal democratic union, announced the 9 revolutionary organizations including the KNU, the KNPP and the CNF on 19th September.

It was necessary to win the battle against the Myanmar Tatmadaw so that political and economic powers controlled by the military dictatorship could be removed and equal rights could be enjoyed, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs commentator, told CNI News.

" Personally, we need to win the battle against the Myanmar Tatmadaw. Only after the military dictatorship is root out, we, revolutionary organizations, can negotiate among us. After Operation-1027 was successful, the MNDAA is establishing administration in the Kokang region where everyone has been granted right to work. Everyone is demanding democracy and federal because they can't enjoy equal rights or they are poor. If we finish removing the military council, we can make a living very well. And then, equal rights will follow gradually." he said.

While seeing NCA signatories

EAOs and non-Bamar ethnic elements are interested in building a federal democratic union and the Myanmar Tatmadaw, the NLD and the USDP are interested in a democratic federal union.

However, the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) has imposed to build a union that is based on democracy and federal in accordance with the results produced from political dialogues.

In a union that was based on democracy and federal, according to the constitution, regions and states could win self-determination, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the SAC in his letter sent to the 75th Anniversary Celebration of the Kachin State Day on 10th January 2023.

CNI News

25 October 2024

As Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the State Administration Council, is to go to China in November this year, what kinds of changes in military and economy of Myanmar could arise after his trip, which is being discussed by military and political analysts. 

The trip reportedly had been planned since August when the Chinese FM Wang Yi came to Myanmar.

The SAC chairman's trip could bring opportunities for Myanmar and Myanmar could be stronger in military because there are bilateral interests which the two countries have to work together, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News.

While seeing President (retired) U Thein Sein and Chinese President Xi Jingping

" It's an official trip for a lot of interests the two countries have to work together. So, the trip can bring opportunities for Myanmar. Frankly speaking, in building an army to be stronger, regional and international relations support it. But our performance is mainly important. Depending on our performance, our military can be stronger. How can Myanmar make the most of better military strength? It's an important point." he said.

China-Myanmar border trades that have been closed down due to Myanmar domestic armed conflicts could be discussed during the trip of the SAC chairman, said political commentators. 

Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing's trip to China will be the first time after 1st February 2021 when the political changes started.

While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and Russian President Putin

President U Thein Sein (retired) and Vice Sr-Gen Soe Win, vice chairman of the SAC went to China in June and July 2024. There would be no military changes distinctly but only economic changes, U Than Soe Naing, a Myanmar political commentator, told CNI News.

" There could be no military changes so distinctly, but only economic changes. The SAC seems to borrow three billion dollars from China. If the SAC can borrow it, the military council can stand a chance of having an opportunity to prop up the economy that has been collapsing. Its image can become good as well. It doesn't stand a chance of linking militarily so much. But the military probably will prevent the elements that it has controlled from taking part in the war as well as limit the flow of weapons. So, there will be some reasons that can change military and economy a little." he said.

Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing visited Russia three times and during his trip in 2022, he met with Russian President, Putin.

CNI News

25 October 2024

The national economy has looked up because production industries based on agriculture and livestock were encouraged, said chairman of the State Administration Council at the meeting of the Union Government held on 21st October. 

The national economy has decreased and agricultural businesses cannot be done in some regions due to abnormal climate and political instabilities while any products could not increasingly produced, pointed out economic commentators.

Although it was not clear that the SAC chairman told that based on what facts, the facts that he received were incorrect, economic commentators told CNI News.

While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing

" May be he said the kind of form he wants. Some previous leaders also said so. Doesn't he want the truth? His sub-ordinates might present a piece of news like this because they want to butter him up. In fact he has several experts. But they don't seem to dare to submit the truth to him. Many mistakes were included in his speeches. He wrongly told about the GDP growth rate. He's not skilled in them. He shouldn't tell some things." he said.

Myanmar is mainly exporting rice only rather than other products and most border gates have been suspended because border areas are not stable. So, the fact that the economy was looking up was unlikely, they pointed out.

It was necessary to study the technologies of other countries that were carrying out agriculture and livestock successfully, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing at the meeting of the Union Government.

While Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing was observing products

It was impossible for farmers to study the technologies without the help of the government, Ko Zaw Min Naing, an agricultural and economic advisor, told CNI News. 

" Before the current conflicts which started in 2021 took place, there were lots of cooperation with other countries in the agricultural sector. Myanmar students were sent abroad to attend the agricultural courses. Especially, they were sent to five countries related to Mekhong River. When the current conflicts started, international left Myanmar trainees behind. It's necessary to make the political situation stable so that Myanmar trainees can be sent abroad." he said.

The World Bank has released that Myanmar growth rate would be only one percent until March 2025. However, chairman of the SAC said in July that the SAC was carrying out to become until 3.8 percent of Myanmar GDP growth rate in 2024-2025.

CNI News

25 October 2024

Myanmar is sandwiched by powerful countries and they are making attempt to make Myanmar become a country that has no sovereignty as they like, said Vice Sr-Gen Soe Win. 

He said the above at the meeting of the central committee for holding 77th Independence Day on 22nd October 2024. 

There are hegemonies, multilateralism, unilateralism, pressuring countries that have different ideologies, attempting to make countries that have the same ideologies to become proxy governments in the world, said Vice Sr-Gen Soe Win.

While a meeting was being held to hold the 77th Independence Day

" Our country is located between powerful countries and made up of over 100 ethnicities. So, powerful countries are trying to cause dissension among the ethnicities and to make Myanmar become a country that has no sovereignty as they like. So, the PM has laid down the objectives that have political essence so that sovereignty and independence can be kept and the objectives contain solidarity and unity, which will be seen." he said.

Myanmar that is located between China and India is in an economically pivotal place. Moreover, Myanmar politics is unstable and armed conflicts are widely taking place. 

There are armed groups which the US and western countries are supporting while there are armed groups which are being influenced by China.

While seeing the Kokang Force (MNDAA)

These armed groups are waging battles to overthrow the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the SAC, and armed battles are widely taking place across the country. So, the SAC has invited armed groups and organizations, individuals and the PDFs that were declared terrorist organizations, to come to the political roundtable so that the country would not collapse.

" Although some countries have sovereignty, they have no freedom. Because the country had to attempt for many years so as not to lose its independence and sovereignty,  everyone has to keep the independence together. Although the people had to try to gain the independence for many years, it can be lost in the period of one morning, which can be seen in world countries." said Vice Sr-Gen Soe Win.

The Balance of Power has been broken in the world political stage, which could be seen; the multi-national meetings were full with hostile speeches to make the world destroy instead of discussing to develop globalization, he pointed out.

CNI News

23 October 2024

Prevention so as not to sell goods imported from China and Thailand with no license could not be effective on the ground, pointed out economic analysts. 

Importing goods without license is illegal and only if the government could prevent along the route where the goods were carried, would it be effective, U Aung Pyae Sone, a businessman, told CNI News.

" Whether a product in the market was imported with an import license or not cannot be known by retail shops and distributors. And buyers or customers can't know whether it was legally imported. If the government will supervise closely so as not to sell illegal goods only when they are in markets, it won't be so natural. The government should inspect and take action or seize illegal products along the import route through check points. Prevention of illegal products only when they are in markets won't be effective, I think." he said.

While seeing the Myawaddy Border Trade Zone

If it was not convenient to check on the routes going to the borders because of territorial instabilities, checkpoints on the roads entering towns or cities should thoroughly check goods whether they were legal or illegal, pointed out economic analysts. 

Myanmar people are mainly using Thai and Chinese products and if prevention measures like that were conducted, it would be necessary to issue import licenses easily and quickly, they suggested.

Illegal trades have emerged due to the imbalance between demand and supply and they should be tackled only after the way to balance were found, U Htay Aung Kyi, a banking expert, told CNI News.

While seeing the 105 Mile Trade Zone on the route to the Chinese border

" I don't mean illegal importing is right due to the imbalance between supply and demand. The reason why illegal importing is conducted is because they have to sell or buy. Why are there things to be sold or bought? It's because of an imbalance between supply and demand. For example, you had to spend about 50,000 kyats a month on medicine in the past. But you have to spend about 120,000 kyats now. You can't find the medicine you want in the market. And then, black market has arisen. The black market can't be tackled. What should we do to create a balance between supply and demand?" he said.

Illegal trade growing that could make armed groups exist longer must be prevented and got rid of, said chairman of steering committee at the meeting of anti-illegal trade committee held on 9th October.

So, checks and arrests must be conducted on routes and roads. Moreover, warehouses must be checked and arrested and lastly, until in markets, he said. After that, shop owners were warned not to sell illegal goods.

CNI News

23 October 2024

Any organization or individual who recognizes or signs the ceasefire agreement between the National Socialist Council of Maga-Khaplang/Anmai (NSCN-K/AM) and the Myanmar Tatmadaw will be regarded as those who go against the national movement, released the National Socialist Council of Naga-Khaplang/Yung Aung (NSCN-K/YA) on 22nd October 2024. 

Whether the ceasefire could be signed or not, carrying out to damage their region for the interests of anyone who wanted to corrupt would not be allowed, said the NSCN-K/YA.

Moreover, it would go on maintaining the current condition at any rate; the NSCN/GPRN and the Naga people keep out of the Myanmar conflict and they would stand at the current situation unless they were forcibly pushed to take part in the conflict, said the NSCN-K/YA.

While seeing the statement released by the NSCN-K/YA

" So, in accordance with the statement by the NSCN/GPRN dated 28th September 2024, for the sake of national liberation revolution, the above-mentioned Naga public organizations are informed to avoid encouraging the NSCN-K/AM. Any organization or individual who recognizes or signs their ceasefire will be regarded as those who go against the national liberation movement." said the NSCN-K/YA.

The discussion was held between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the NSCN-K/AM in Khamti on 26th January, 2024 and on 5th February 2024 about ceasefire and security for the Naga region. 

After that, the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the NSCN-K/AM discussed in Monywa on the second week of September 2024. 

And then, as the fourth time, the two sides discussed in Khamti on 27th September 2024 and the preliminary ceasefire agreement was reached at the Region level.

However, chief minister of Sagaing Region reached Khamti on 27th September and ceasefire agreement cannot be signed until 22nd October for many reasons.

While seeing the NSCN-K/YA

Although the NSCN was formed in 1980, because there were disagreements among leaders, the group led by U Khaplang has based on the Myanmar side as the NSCN-K in 1989 and the group led by Muivah and   Isak Chishi Swu   on the Indian side as the NSCN-IM.

U Khaplang passed away in 2017 and vice chairman U Kham Ngor was elected chairman of the NSCN-K. 

However, he was removed from power on 17th August that year and U Yung Aung was elected chairman of the NSCN-K. U Kham Ngor left for India with a few troops of his and made peace with the Indian government in 2020.

And then, Deputy Commander in Chief Lt-Gen Nikisumi, minister Starswam and C in C Lt-Gen Nyamlan were dismissed from the NSCN-K/YA by U Yung Aung on 29th July 2020. 

While seeing the ENNO/ENDA

The group led by Nikisumi formed the NSCN-K/NK and made peace with the Indian government on 8th September 2021.

In the same way, U Yung Aung dismissed Anmai and Lannyei from the NSCN-K/YA in July 2023 and warned them to abolish new group establishment and surrender. 

Anmai formed the NSCN-K/AM and battles often take place between the NSCN-K/AM and the NSCN-K/YA. 

On the other hand, former NLD members of the Hluttaw and Awng Sai who was dismissed from the NSCN-K led and formed the Eastern Naga National Organization/ the Eastern Naga Defense Army (ENNO/ENDA).

CNI News

23 October 2024

The China's consulate in Mandalay often likened as second capital was attacked at about 5:00 am on 18th October by some anonymous people. Although no one was hurt due to the attack, some office buildings were damaged, stated the Chinese Embassy to Myanmar. 

While the Bloomberg news agency asked the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China about the attack, he was very shocked and strongly condemned the attack, he answered.

" The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Chinese Embassy to Myanmar and the Chinese Consulate quickly started the emergency response mechanism and China seriously demanded Myanmar to investigate the attack thoroughly and to severely punish the culprits in accordance with the law after they are arrested." he said.

While seeing the spokesperson of Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Lin Jian at the regular press conference on 21st October

Myanmar has been urged to promote the security for the Chinese Embassy, the Chinese Consulates, the Chinese organizations, projects and staffs so as not to make similar incidents take place, said the spokesperson.

" Myanmar was very shocked and sad because of this incident and has carried out necessary measures. The Myanmar side will keep the promise and comply with international laws and take the responsibilities practically the security for the Chinese staffs and organizations." said Myanmar.

And then, the Chinese Consulate in Mandalay recently issued a security notification and urged the Chinese citizens, companies and organizations to take care of security and make preventions for the safety, promoting security measures, said the spokesperson.

While seeing the front view of the Chinese Consulate in Mandalay in 2021 (photo-CJ)

Saying that China is intervening the domestic affairs of Myanmar, opposition elements waging the Spring Revolution in order to overthrow the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the SAC are protesting against China by burning the Chinese flags and steading on the images of Chinese leaders.

In the same way, nationalist elements in Myanmar are protesting against China, saying that China is supporting the Three Brotherhood Alliance (MNDAA, TNLA and AA) behind the scene, attacking the military camps of the Myanmar Tatmadaw in order to capture towns and cities.

Because some Spring Revolution armed elements have released that they would attack and destroy the Chinese interests in Myanmar, the MNDAA, the TNLA and the AA have stated that they would effectively take action against those who attack the Chinese projects, investments, companies and citizens.

CNI News

22 October 2024

After China put pressure on the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) to stop the war, China closed down its border gates with Kachin State and whether China could sanction on the KIA in practice or not is being questioned by military analysts.

The news came out of the discussion between the Chinese Special Envoy Mr. Deng Xijun and the leader of the KIA, General Gun Shawng about stopping battles on 17th October.

And then, the KIA attacked and captured Panwa Town near the Chinese border, where China is working on rare earth and other natural resources mining industries.

China closed down the border trade gates - Laiza, the headquarters of the KIA, Myjayan, Lysen, Hkashan and so on shortly after the KIA captured Panwa Town.

The China's pressure was just a political demonstration and it could be difficult to close down the border gates in practice, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

" The China's pressure is just its political demonstration. But it's very difficult practically to close down the border gates. The Kachin people in Yunnan Province are like relatives and family members of the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO). I don't think it'e easy for China to close down in detail." he said.

While seeing Panwa Town in Kachin State

The reason why the KIA captured Panwa where there were trade, militia and border guard force might be it wanted to re-gather the parts of Kachin State when the Myanmar Tatmadaw was weak, pointed out political commentators.

China was probably telling strategically and because there were Kachin people on both China's side and Myanmar's side, as China would have to take its ethnic policy into account, it wouldn't be to able put pressure anymore, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affair commentator, told CNI News.

" China will be telling strategically while we'll have to do what we have to. China probably won't put pressure any more. Although it has imposed sanction, we can find other ways. It's no problem. Kachin people are on the Chinese side as well. Kachin people didn't accept even though China had closed down the border gates. They were accepting their relatives or ethnic people. Because China has to take its ethnic policy into account, it doesn't dare to carry out strictly. War refugees from Kachin State entered China, crossing the border. To the best of my knowledge, Kachin people from the Chinese side donate clothes, and stationeries and books for the children  in the Kachin State every year. No matter what China tells, the KIA will carry on what it has to." she said.

While seeing the Laiza-Naban China-Myanmar border gate

The KIA re-captured its territories as it wanted to establish Kachin State of its own, she added. 

" The KIA has always wanted to build Kachin State of its own. Panwa is included in Kachin State, where it was owned by the KIA in the past as well. Zakhun Taint Ying was member of the KIA at first and then he joined the Burma Communist Party. After he seceded from the BCP, he became a militia leader of Bo Khin Nyunt. The story was very complicated. The KIA retook its place (Panwa). Around the place are Kachin villages only, where I had lived." she added.

Along the Kachin border with China controlled by the KIA are about 4,000 war refugees and people by the dozens of thousand, and foodstuffs and consumer goods are imported from the Chinese side. 

The five border gates with China namely Kyin Hsan Kyawt, Chin Shwe Haw, Yanlon Kyine, Mongko and Namkham have been closed down by the Chinese side.

CNI News

22 October 2024

It was necessary to designate the profitable reference price of paddy more than agricultural cost, said farmers.

The steering organization for the promotion of farmers' right and interests has designated the reference price of paddy as 950,000 kyats per 100 baskets.

The agricultural cost for the rainfed paddy was 700,000 to 1,000,000 kyats per acre and the current reference price was not beneficial to farmers, former chairman of the Farmers Development Association, U Thein Aung told CNI News.

" The basic reference price means the guarantee foundation market which is in every country and the price is 30 percent more than the agricultural cost. The yield of paddy this year is 70 baskets per acre on average. In comparison with the reference price designated, a farmer could earn around 700,000 kyats per acre, but the agricultural cost is 700,000 to 100,000 kyats per acre. In fact, if the reference price was designated 30 percent more than the cultural cost, it would be 1,300,000 kyats." he said.

While paddy is being threshed

However, the price of paddy is 1,700,000 to 1,900,000 kyats per 100 baskets in the market. When the paddy appeared abundantly in the previous years, calculating on the reference price, as the paddy was bought, which hurt farmers.

When the agricultural cost has risen, the reference price should not be about half lower than the market price, U Kyi Lwin, a farmer, told CNI News.

" The yield of rainfed paddy this year is produced only half of the previous years. So, you can't buy the paddy, reducing the reasonable price. In the previous years, when the paddy appeared, for example, the reference price was designated 600,000 kyats per 100 baskets. In practice, there was no one who bought the paddy at that price. But it's necessary for the government to clearly issue an order." he said.

The currently designated reference price of paddy is for the rainfed paddy of 2024 and for the summer paddy of 2025 and at present, rainfed paddy is being reaped and bought at 1,700,000 to 1,900,000 kyats per 100 baskets.