CNI News

22 September 2025

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) may be losing in its campaign to capture Bhamo, Kachin State, and military and political analysts say the Myanmar Tatmadaw must avoid nurturing rebel groups.

In Bhamo, where KIA and allied People’s Defense Force (PDF) troops had been attempting to seize control, the Myanmar Tatmadaw regained the upper hand and retook some positions.

Regarding the battle, U Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) National Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News:

“In the Bhamo battle, the KIA will gradually lose. The Tatmadaw also needs to avoid nurturing rebels. If they aim to eliminate them, only complete eradication will ensure national peace and development. When rebels become weak, they offer peace talks. The government often follows along. But when they regain strength, they fight again, causing suffering to the people. Only when war no longer occurs can the country truly pursue development. Starting from Bhamo, the government should work to end the KIA.”

As the KIA began retreating from Bhamo, they extended peace talk offers to the military, and both sides are currently negotiating possible discussions.

KIA, together with the Arakan Army (AA) and PDF, launched their offensive to capture Bhamo in December 2024, seizing Bhamo Airport, Bhamo University, and several Tatmadaw bases.

KIA–PDF joint forces

From December 2024 to July 2025, the Tatmadaw defended for eight months. Then, starting August 4, 2025, the Tatmadaw launched a counter-offensive with seven battalion columns.

Between August 4 and September 11, 2025, the military announced that it had recaptured KIA-AA-PDF–controlled headquarters, neighborhoods, villages, and supply bases around Bhamo.

Bhamo is a strategically important city to the border trade on the eastern bank of the Irrawaddy River. The trade routes include:

Bhamo–Tazai–Myothit–Laiza, Bhamo–Momauk–Tazai–Laiza, Bhamo–Momauk–Lweje.

These were the key routes that KIA-AA-PDF sought to control.

While showing the Myanmar Tatmadaw launched a counter-offensive inside Bhamo

Although many people believe the Tatmadaw intentionally allows rebels to exist, political analyst Dr. Aung Myo told CNI News that in reality, the military does not “nurture” them.

“People think the Tatmadaw nurtures rebels, but in reality, they don’t — and they can’t. Even the U.S. didn’t nurture the Taliban. The fact is, in such vast territory, groups can hide, blend in with the population, and wage guerrilla warfare. So it’s not the military nurturing them. However, to completely eliminate guerrilla warfare, political inclusion is necessary. That’s why elections are held, provisions for proportional representation and self-administration are made, and the constitution is amended. Over time, these can gradually bring such groups into politics and weaken them.”, he said.

From December 4, 2024, to September 11, 2025, there were 16 major battles and 490 smaller clashes between the KIA-AA-PDF and the Tatmadaw.

The Tatmadaw claimed to have recovered 163 rebel bodies, 178 assorted weapons, and related equipment, though some government troops also lost their lives.

Currently, since September 15, 2025, the KIA and PDFs have been launching a new offensive to seize Banmauk, a key gateway town into Kachin State from the upper Sagaing Region.

CNI News

22 September 2025

In Myanmar’s upcoming election, observers from both political and military circles are closely watching the voting rights of citizens and the conditions for submitting candidates in areas affected by armed conflict.

According to the Union Election Commission (UEC), the first part of the election will be held on December 28, 2025, in 102 townships. The remaining townships will hold elections in parts 2 and 3 in January 2026.

On September 14, 2025, the UEC also announced that elections would not take place in 121 constituencies across the Pyithu Hluttaw, Amyotha Hluttaw, and Region/State Hluttaws.

Although the UEC had originally declared elections would be held in 267 townships, the updated number is even higher, which the UEC claims poses no issue. However, in territories controlled by other armed groups, it will likely be difficult to field candidates, said U Htet Aung Kyaw, vice chairman of the National Democratic Force (NDF).

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing casting his vote

He told CNI News:“As it stands, the UEC has even announced elections in more townships than originally planned, so there shouldn’t be much of a problem. But in conflict areas, it will be very difficult to nominate candidates. For example, if only one party manages to nominate a candidate and others don’t, then there won’t even be a need to hold an election in that constituency — that one candidate would automatically win.”

On September 15, 2025, the UEC also issued a statement regarding the right of voters who are outside their constituencies but are listed on the electoral roll, confirming that they would be allowed to cast advance votes.

Colonel Khun Okkar, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO), which has signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), told CNI News that competition would still exist in constituencies, but weaker parties would struggle:

Citizens waiting in line to vote

“Every citizen should have the right to vote. So even if someone is staying elsewhere, they should be able to cast an advance vote in their original constituency. Right now, there are hundreds of thousands of displaced Rakhine people in Yangon. They can still vote for their constituencies from afar. Even though many constituencies are unstable, arrangements have been made so people can still vote. But if in a certain constituency only one person runs, then that candidate is automatically elected. Still, I expect there will be competitors in every constituency. With the NDF collapsing, there aren’t many strong parties left to compete, so in some areas, it’s possible only one candidate will stand unopposed and win automatically.”

Currently, intense armed conflicts are ongoing across Myanmar. Some of the constituencies scheduled for elections are under the control of armed groups, while others are in areas of heavy fighting.

As a result, political parties are struggling to select candidates and are facing significant security challenges in participating in the election. Similarly, registered voters are worried about their safety when it comes to casting their ballots.

CNI News
21 September 2025

After Myanmar’s political change in 2021, armed conflicts expanded and intensified across the country. Observers are now closely watching the political stance of the three Shan armed groups.

Shan State and Shan ethnic regions are rich in natural resources and home to many ethnic groups.

The three Shan armed groups are the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), The Shan State Progress Party (SSPP), and The Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA).

Since 2021, these groups have neither allied with the Myanmar Tatmadaw nor joined revolutionary forces to fight, according to military and political analysts.

It might be because they fear the people’s suffering and the national crisis would be worsen, said U Khun Sai, a participant in the peace process, in an interview with CNI News.

“RCSS has firmly stood on the principle that political problems must be solved by political means, ever since it signed the bilateral ceasefire in 2011. That is still their main position. If they were to join in a certain side now, the situation could worsen instead of improving. The SSPP is part of the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC). The Wa (UWSA), which leads FPNCC, has also taken the position that the crisis should be resolved politically rather than militarily, and SSPP follows this line. Not long ago, when I met some of their leaders, they said: ‘What would change if we fought? The people would only suffer more. They are already facing so much hardship, and if we fought, it could become even worse. We see that. So, we are waiting for opportunities to resolve the situation peacefully.’”, he said.

General Yawd Serk with Senior General Min Aung Hlaing

RCSS leaders frequently attended talks in Nay Pyi Taw with Senior General Min Aung Hlaing during the SAC era, and RCSS leader General Yawd Serk was even awarded the honorary title “Wunna Kyawhtin” in 2022.

The SSPP, meanwhile, is a member of the FPNCC, an alliance of armed groups led by the United Wa State Army (UWSA).

However, clashes sometimes occur between these groups and the Myanmar Tatmadaw. Skirmishes also break out between RCSS and SSPP forces, while battles occasionally break out between the SNA and the KIA-PDF allied forces.

Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Shanni Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News that the three groups are acting based on what they see as right and wrong for the Shan cause:

The SNA troops

“It’s complicated. But in my view, the three groups (RCSS, SSPP, SNA) have decided for themselves what is right and wrong for the Union. For example, the SNA used to clash with the Myanmar Tatmadaw, but since after 2021, they have become quite close.
Meanwhile, SSPP and RCSS don’t really interact with each other, though they may have some internal dealings. They all look at the Shan cause and make their own judgment of who is right or wrong. That’s why they remain in this position. There may well be behind-the-scenes links, of course.”, he said.

In August this year, SSPP leaders, along with TNLA and MNDAA, went to Panghsang at the invitation of the UWSA.

At that meeting, the Wa informed their allied armed groups that they would not be providing any weapons or financial assistance to facilitate military operations.

CNI News

21 September 2025

The issue of rare earth minerals, whose demand is rapidly increasing in the global market, could become highly significant in Myanmar’s political bargaining, according to military and political analysts who spoke to CNI News.

They noted that rare earth deposits in Myanmar are not limited to Kachin State, but are also found in Shan State, Sagaing Region, and other areas.

Because of its importance, the military commander-in-chief would not easily grant full approval or agreements on rare earth mining to any party, said U Khun Sai, who is involved in peace processes, speaking to CNI News.

“Rare earth is not only in Kachin. It is also in Shan and in many other areas. Myanma Economic Holdings Limited has at least five rare earth sites located within territories controlled by the Tatmadaw. It may be called ‘rare,’ but in reality, it’s not that rare. That’s why this rare earth issue will certainly become very significant in political bargaining. The Commander-in-Chief is a shrewd man—he knows this. So I don’t think he will easily give full agreements to anyone.”, he said.

According to data released by China’s Customs Department, Myanmar’s exports of rare earth minerals to China rose from 17,400 tons in 2020 to 40,000 tons in 2023.

However, due to the illicit nature of many mining operations, the exact amount of rare earth minerals actually extracted during that period is unknown.

Rare earths are indispensable for the production of smartphones, electric vehicles, military weapons, fighter jets, and other advanced technologies worldwide.

Among roughly 300 rare earth mining sites in Kachin State, many areas are now under the control of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA),, which captured them  from a militia leader, Zahkun Ting Ying.

Mining companies operating in Kachin State are generally nominal companies for Chinese investors or joint ventures with them. Current mining operations and revenues from rare earth extraction and exports to China remain largely under KIA control.

The KIA has previously demanded that Hpakant be designated as a liberated zone, and now it is also using the rare earth issue as leverage in political negotiations, said Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP).

He said:“Back in 1994, when the KIO/KIA had made peace, they demanded Hpakant be declared a liberated area. Today, they are holding on to the rare earth issue, so it’s impossible to say they won’t use it as political leverage. Rare earth has become the world’s number one resource. Myanmar’s deposits include three of the world’s rarest types. This makes the rare earth issue very politically important. The revenues are also massive. If mining were carried out under government oversight, the public could benefit. But now, since it’s extracted in cooperation with armed groups, the people have no say. Even if they protest, it only lasts briefly. Rare earth is going to be an increasingly important sector in Myanmar’s politics.”

During the State Security and Peace Commission chairman’s recent trip to China, an agreement was reached with Indian Prime Minister Modi regarding rare earth mining. Following this, India’s Ministry of Mines encouraged both state-owned and private companies to collect rare earth samples from mines in northeastern Myanmar, currently under KIA control, Reuters reported.

A KIA official, who requested anonymity, also told Reuters that if the KIA were to export large volumes of rare earths to India, they would agree to allow sample studies.

Some policy papers have even been submitted to the U.S. government led by President Donald Trump, in which the US should seek ways to obtain rare earth minerals from the KIA-controlled territories via India.

CNI News
20 September 2025

Timor-Leste will not permit the establishment of offices or unlawful activities by organizations opposing the Myanmar government, said Mr. Bendito dos Santos Freitas, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation of Timor-Leste.

He made the statement during a meeting with Myanmar’s Foreign Minister U Than Swe in Nay Pyi Taw on September 18, 2025.

He also suggested that a Myanmar embassy could be opened in Dili, Timor-Leste.

A delegation led by Minister Mr. Bendito dos Santos Freitas visited Myanmar from September 17 to 19, 2025, on an official working trip.

During the meeting between the two foreign ministers, both sides agreed to strengthen diplomatic relations in accordance with ASEAN charters, principles, and standards, and not to interfere in each other’s internal affairs, according to a press release from Myanmar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The discussions also included the possibility of signing a visa exemption agreement for holders of diplomatic and special passports between the two countries, as well as an agreement to facilitate tourism by granting visa exemptions for visitors from both sides.

Previously, Timor-Leste President José Ramos-Horta had said that his country recognized Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG), which is fighting to topple the military-led government headed by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, and that NUG would be allowed to open an office in Timor-Leste.

President José Ramos-Horta made that remark when he met with NUG Foreign Minister Daw Zin Mar Aung on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in 2024, according to Daw Zin Mar Aung’s comments to the media.

Following that, the Myanmar military government led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing objected to Timor-Leste’s application for ASEAN membership.

Amid these developments, after Senior General Min Aung Hlaing held talks and gained support from international leaders including Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Modi, Russian President Putin, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar, and Indonesian President Prabowo, Timor-Leste’s position appears to have shifted.

CNI News
20 September 2025

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, said that the Dawei Port would be upgraded in the best possible way.

He made the remark on September 18, 2025, during a meeting in Dawei, Tanintharyi Region, with departmental officials and local community leaders to discuss regional development.

“With regard to Dawei Port, dredging works are being carried out along the Dawei River so that vessels can enter and leave smoothly. The Dawei Port will be upgraded in the best possible way.”, said Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.

He added that the Dawei Airport is also being upgraded and expanded to enhance regional economic development and improve transportation links as well as that plans are underway to extend domestic flights to Bokpyin and Kawthaung as well.

The Dawei Deep Seaport Project was initiated with the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Thailand’s Italian-Thai Development Company and the Myanmar government on June 12, 2008. The project aimed to be completed within ten years, from 2010 to 2019.

The project included the Dawei Deep Seaport, an industrial zone, and a 105-mile eight-lane superhighway linking to Kanchanaburi Province in Thailand, as well as a railway line, power lines, oil and natural gas pipelines, and a cross-border economic zone.

These infrastructure projects were to be implemented under a BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) system with a 60-year concession.

Later, countries such as Singapore, China, India, and Russia expressed interest in investing in the Dawei Deep Seaport Project.

CNI News
19 September 2025

Since Myanmar’s Union Election Commission (UEC) has announced that the election will be held on December 28, within the 90-day period the Myanmar military may attempt to turn certain territories controlled by Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) into its own administrative areas, said Dr. Aye Maung, Chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP).

On September 14, the UEC announced that elections would not be held in a total of 121 constituencies, including seats in the Pyithu Hluttaw, Amyotha Hluttaw and regional or state Hluttaws.

Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News that after the power was handed over to the National Defense and Security Council for holding the election, the Tatmadaw (military) would move to establish its administrative territories in some EAO-controlled areas within those 90 days.

“The election date is set for December 28. So after the SAC hands power over to the National Defense and Security Council, that council delegates special authority to the Commander-in-Chief. Currently, 63 townships are under military administration, and authority has been handed to commanders of the commands. But that delegated power lasts only for 90 days, which will end on October 31. Among the constituencies where elections are to be held, since there are townships controlled by armed groups, within those 90 days the military intends to turn those townships into its administrative territories. In other words, they will try to secure them quickly or gradually, depending on the circumstances.”, he said.

The TNLA troops

At present, in the townships where elections are declared to be held, the Myanmar Tatmadaw is launching offensives against resistance forces to secure control over territories for security reasons.

Because of this, intense fighting is ongoing between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and resistance forces in Kachin State, northern Shan State, Karen State, Sagaing Region, and Mandalay Region.

Due to these clashes, elections cannot be held in: 56 constituencies of the Pyithu Hluttaw, 9 constituencies of the Amyotha Hluttaw under the First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) system, and 56 constituencies of the state and regional Hluttaws under the FPTP system.

However, Phase (1) of the election will be held in 102 townships on December 28, 2025. The remaining areas are planned to hold elections in January 2026.

CNI News

19 September 2025

Due to restrictions, prohibitions, and requirements imposed by the Union Election Commission (UEC), political parties will have to compete in the upcoming elections with only limited opportunities, said Myanmar political analyst Dr. Aung Myo in an interview with CNI News.

On September 9, the UEC announced the dissolution of three parties for failing to meet the required number of members and offices to qualify for nationwide competition.

The UEC had earlier stated to CNI News on September 10 that any political party which fails to field candidates in all 417 constituencies nationwide will be dissolved.

According to Dr. Aung Myo, the current situation leaves political parties dependent on the status granted by the UEC, and therefore they should not expect concessions:

Union Election Commission office

“I feel particularly sorry for the dissolved parties. However, we should not be asking for favors or adjustments at this point, because the current reality is that political parties must operate within the framework permitted by the UEC. Given this position, what matters most is to make use of what opportunities we still have, and to rebuild democracy in the country as best we can. Our desire is to do it properly. So even if elections are held only halfway, or only in the cities, if parties cannot compete, then individuals will have to contest as independents. That path will remain open. That’s why I don’t want to say whether the UEC’s restrictions are good or bad—I only feel deeply sorry. In the end, individuals will just have to compete with whatever small opportunities they can get.”

Myanmar plans to hold the first phase of elections in 102 townships on December 28, 2025. On September 14, the UEC announced the timelines for candidate nominations, scrutiny, and withdrawals.

According to the announcement, candidate nominations for constituencies in various legislatures will be accepted from September 8 to September 22. Candidate withdrawals must be made no later than September 17. In the case of proportional representation (PR) constituencies, if a party withdraws a candidate, replacements can be submitted from September 18 to September 22.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing meeting with political parties

For parties contesting in only one state or region, the requirement is 1,000 party members and five offices in five townships within that state or region. Parties contesting nationwide must have 50,000 members, 110 offices, and field candidates in more than half of all constituencies.

U Khun Sai, a peace process participant, told CNI News that this situation favors the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP):

“It’s unfortunate, but it is what it is. We can’t avoid this reality. What it means is that the USDP is now even more certain to win. This is comparable to the 2010 elections. At that time, since the NLD did not participate, the USDP was guaranteed victory. Similarly, in the coming December elections, the USDP is even more likely to win. It’s not surprising.”, he said.

Currently, more than 50 political parties have been registered: six for nationwide competition and 52 for state or regional competition only.

The UEC stated on September 10 that it will proceed according to the laws in place to ensure only qualified representatives are elected into parliament.

CNI News

19 September 2025

The Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) will not launch large-scale military operations targeting any specific area or group during the pre-election period but will instead focus mainly on ensuring election security, said Colonel Khun Okkar, Chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), in an interview with CNI News.

He explained that although the Tatmadaw is still conducting heavy offensives in some areas, including central Myanmar, these appear to be part of efforts to secure constituencies where the first phase of elections will take place in 102 townships.

“Before the elections, the battlefront will likely be narrowed as much as possible, and secure pocket areas will be created for holding the elections. What we are seeing now is more like building defensive fences around those areas to prevent disturbances during the elections. It doesn’t look like a campaign to completely annihilate any particular group. Since elections will be held in over 100 constituencies, the main focus seems to be securing those areas—recapturing and protecting them for the elections.”, said Colonel Khun Okkar.

A People’s Defense Force unit

Currently, the Tatmadaw has regained control of certain territories it had previously lost, including Naungcho, Thabeikkyin, Madaya, Singu, the Kawkareik–Thingannyinaung–Myawaddy Asian Highway corridor, and several command bases, neighborhoods, villages, and outposts around Bhamo in Kachin State.

In addition, heavy clashes have recently broken out between the Tatmadaw and joint PDF forces in northern parts of Mandalay Region and central Myanmar.

According to military developments, central Myanmar may soon become more stable and peaceful, said political analyst Dr. Aung Myo in an interview with CNI News.

Tatmadaw regains control of Bhamo

“We often refer to the ‘Guerilla’ strategy. If successful, it suddenly leaps forward with momentum; if it fails, it suddenly collapses. That’s the reality. In particular, I see that central Myanmar is not far from stabilizing and becoming peaceful again.”, he said.

Military and political observers believe the Tatmadaw is trying to retake as much lost territory as possible before the elections in order to proceed with the voting process. These offensives reportedly involve not only ground troops but also airstrikes.

Therefore, military and political analysts point out that military operations may continue to expand and intensify up until the election period.