CNI News

May 21, 2026

Naypyidaw released a statement declaring that the Myanmar Military has successfully gained control over the entire northern region of Chin State, following the recapture and stabilization of Tonzang Town on May 20.

The Chin National Front (CNF), CDF, and PDF forces had previously attacked and seized control of Tonzang Town on May 23, 2024.

Following that, the Myanmar Military regained control of Falam Town in Chin State on April 25, 2026, and launched an offensive on April 29 to recapture Tonzang Town.

During this offensive, military forces advanced and secured key areas sequentially: May 2: Thaing Gyin Junction, May 5: Kennedy Peak, May 9: Tedim Town, Forces then regrouped in Tedim Town to resume the offensive, capturing successive locations as follows: May 11: Point-1504, May 12: Maung Ken Village and Tualmu Village, May 14: Gam Ngai Village, May 16: Luang Zan Village and Bial Chin Village, May 17: Tonzang Village (Tanzang), May 19: Ton Htoung Village and Point-1985 Hill.

According to the statement from Naypyidaw, the Myanmar Military then achieved full control and completely captured Tonzang Town on May 20.

As a result, the Myanmar Military now controls the entire northern region of Chin State, including Hakha, Thantlang, Falam, Tedim, Tonzang, and Cikha towns.

Economic Impact: Due to these territorial gains, the Hakha–Falam–Tedim–Tonzang–Cikha route and the Kalay–Falam–Hakha route have been reopened. This allows commodity flows from the Sagaing Region to northern Chin State towns to resume normally, which is expected to lower commodity prices reasonably.

Tonzang Town, which the Myanmar Military recaptured on May 20, 2026, is a strategically important area for regional commodity flows and is vital for border trade with India.

Geographically, Tonzang Township is bordered by Tedim Town to the south, Kalay Town of the Sagaing Region to the east, and India's Manipur and Mizoram states to the north and west.

CNI News

May 21, 2026

Military and political analysts are sharing their assessments on how a path to dialogue can be established to achieve peace between the Tatmadaw (the Myanmar Military) and the Arakan Army (AA) in Rakhine State.

Battles resumed in Rakhine State in November 2023. Currently, the AA has captured Paletwa and 14 townships within Rakhine State, while the Tatmadaw controls 3 townships.

U Thar Tun Hla, Chairman of the Arakan National Party (ANP), told CNI News that if peace and dialogue are approached merely for display, there will be no solution. Instead, a process to build mutual trust must be initiated first, and the problem-solving process must be based on the actual ground realities.

"The most critical factor for peace talks is having a genuine desire and goodwill to build peace. If peace and dialogue are conducted just for show, no solution will emerge. It is vital that the negotiating parties trust each other. If mutual trust cannot be built between the negotiating parties, neither peace nor dialogue will yield results. Therefore, since it is crucial for the parties to have trust in the negotiation process, I see that trust-building processes must be undertaken first. Looking back at Myanmar's political situation since independence in 1948, there has been a weakness in seeking solutions through political means. Successive ruling governments since independence have faced many weak situations. Therefore, analyzing the current situation, we need to lay down and execute a problem-solving process that is based on the actual realities on the ground," he said.

AA Leader Major General Twan Mrat Naing and the Chin Revolutionary Forces.

In an interview with The Diplomat, AA leader Major General Twan Mrat Naing stated that during peace talks with Myanmar military representatives in China two years ago, the AA demanded that there be no Myanmar military troops stationed in the Rakhine region. On the other hand, the Myanmar military desired to return to the status quo prior to 2023.

A political analyst told CNI News that if the military insists on regaining its former positions during peace talks, it will not be workable.

"From my perspective, the military's stance that they must regain the places where they previously resided is unworkable. If they want it to work—for instance, like the MNDAA returning Lashio or Muse to the military—the military would only hold a very confined authority, ruling over something like just 12 wards. This is because the vast majority of the areas where the general public lives are under their (the ethnic armed groups') administration. It looks as though those administrative systems must be recognized. If these are to be guaranteed by the constitution, it is important to look at the rights of the people to choose and elect under a multi-party democratic system within the state. They might need to move toward a model where they accept government administration chosen through a competitive multi-party democratic system. However, at present, I do not see any prospect of the northern groups under Chinese influence accepting such a multi-party system. I think they will continue to rule under a single-party, military-led system. We will have to negotiate this and decide how much time it will take. Since we want to move toward a democratic federal system, I think we need to discuss how much time will be permitted for this transition," the analyst said.

Dr. Aye Maung, Chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), told CNI News that every armed organization seems to consider resolving armed conflicts through dialogue and discussion as a priority.

AA Leader Major General Twan Mrat Naing.

"In any case, finding a solution through dialogue seems to be a priority for every armed organization. Regarding the give-and-take, and what kind of political objectives each armed organization will achieve to make compromises—it will be difficult for both organizations to present an outcome to the public without building some form of political result. Whether it is the AA or the MNDAA, armed organizations have their parties, party members, and armed wings. There are commanders and soldiers. There have been lives sacrificed. There are instances of losing territory, and instances of gaining territory. If territory is surrendered, the morale of their public, commanders, and soldiers might drop. If territory is gained, the morale of their commanders and soldiers might rise. After capturing a territory, it can be difficult to give it back without achieving a certain level of political advancement after fighting with such expectations," he said.

Currently, AA leader Major General Twan Mrat Naing has declared that they will launch final township-capturing battles to achieve victory over the remaining three townships in Rakhine State between 2026 and 2027.

CNI News

May 21, 2026

U Kyaw Min Htet, a Regional Hluttaw (Parliament) Representative from the People's Pioneer Party (PP), told CNI News that the role of parliament is crucial in implementing peace processes in Myanmar.

On April 11, 2026, the government announced the reconstitution of the National Solidarity and Peacemaking Central Committee (NSPCC), the National Solidarity and Peacemaking Working Committee (NSPWC), and the National Solidarity and Peacemaking Coordination Committee (NSPNC).

Military and political analysts have raised questions over whether parliament is being treated as irrelevant to peace-related matters, given that its role was noticeably absent from this newly formed structure.

U Kyaw Min Htet, the Regional Parliament Representative from the PP, emphasized to CNI News that because parliament is an institution that represents the public, its role must absolutely be taken into consideration in peace processes.

He said: "First of all, why is parliament important? It's because it represents the people. Regardless of how things are argued now, people can debate whether it is currently legitimate or illegitimate. However, the reality is that some citizens cast their votes, and this parliament emerged based on those election results. So, this parliament is an organization that represents a portion of the public, though not necessarily everyone. Another point is that parliament is different from the government; it is always dispersed among and rooted within the public. When parliament is not in session, a member of parliament lives and interacts with the community just like an ordinary citizen. It is quite difficult for ministers to interact with regular citizens in that manner. Therefore, we need to utilize the strength of parliament representatives to rebuild mutual understanding, resolve public disputes, and restore mutual trust regarding peace issues directly on the ground. Furthermore, while the role of parliament is vital in legislative work, it is equally crucial in peace affairs because of the constitutional amendment process. Parliament is the primary body vested with the authority to amend the constitution. It holds the main responsibility for current constitutional reforms. For these reasons, the role of parliament must be taken into account."

 The Speaker and Deputy Speaker of the Pyithu Hluttaw seen together

Military and political analysts pointed out that the omission of parliament from the current structures of the NSPCC, NSPWC, and NSPNC suggests an intention to prioritize discussions between armed factions first. They noted that excluding the parliamentary sector inherently reduces public representation.

Parliament Representative U Kyaw Min Htet added that the government should not disregard the parliamentary role when forging peace processes.

He stated: "Since constitutional amendments will inevitably be a part of the peace process, parliament's involvement is vital. However, since parliament has only recently been reconvened, I am unsure of the current government's exact rationale for not including it in the peace process yet. For political institutions to become strong, the ruling government itself needs to nurture and strengthen them. To do so, the role of parliament must be given primary consideration, focusing heavily on parliament and political parties. Therefore, the representation of parliaments and political parties should not be ignored in the peace process. I believe they will be included at some point. The reason we want parliament to flow along within this process is not because it holds executive power—it is true that as a non-executive body, it cannot make definitive executive rulings. However, we want parliament involved because it plays a critical role in matters like constitutional amendments and territorial boundary demarcations. That is why I say I want parliament included in these committees."

The Speaker of the Amyotha Hluttaw seen representing

Members of parliament warned that if the parliamentary role is excluded from the peace process, unnecessary disputes could arise when agreements and constitutional amendment proposals eventually reach the floor of parliament. Therefore, they urged that integrating parliament into the peace process should be seriously considered.

On the other hand, it is understood that parliament is planning to form its own peace-related committee.

Currently, the NSPNC is preparing to move peace processes forward by holding meetings with both ethnic armed organizations that have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) and those that have not yet signed.

CNI News

May 21, 2026

Leaders of local organizations are seeking answers as to why commodity prices remain exorbitantly high in the Naga Self-Administered Zone, located in the upper part of Myanmar's Sagaing Region, despite it being one of the least developed areas in the country.

It is reported that local residents in the Naga Self-Administered Zone are facing delayed commodity flows and high commodity prices due to armed groups setting up checkpoints and collecting taxes.

Consequently, leaders of Naga organizations have pointed out and suggested that it would be better if the government stepped in to regulate and stabilize the current situation of rising commodity prices.

U Shan Maw, Chairman of the Naga Traditional Culture Committee in Khamti Township, told CNI News that traders are raising prices because of the heavy taxing by armed organizations along the trade routes entering the Naga region.

He said: "Regarding the Naga region, the main factor in the economy is the trade route. For example, currently in Khamti, the prices of commodities—such as petrol, diesel, and rice—are extremely high. This is because these things are under the control of armed organizations. Since their tax collection is high, traders also raise the prices. Traders mark up the prices unfairly. For instance, we have to buy and consume a regular bag of rice for around 180,000 to 200,000 Kyats. We hope these issues will be resolved once the country becomes peaceful."

Members of the Myanmar Military(Tatmadaw) and a Naga armed group seen together

Due to increased tax collection and a growing number of checkpoints by armed organizations, the flow of commodities has been delayed, and local Naga residents are bearing the brunt of skyrocketing commodity prices.

Since the Naga region shares a border with India, it relies on the flow of goods through townships like Pansaung, Nanyun, and Leshi (Lahe), as well as border trade gates on the Indian side.

Similarly, from mainland Myanmar, goods are transported to the Naga region using the Chindwin River, passing through Monywa, Homalin, and Khamti.

The Chindwin River Route: In Shwe Pyi Aye town, the KIA and PDF have blocked and cut off the flow of commodities. They only allow passage after collecting exorbitant amounts of money, causing the prices of goods reaching the Naga region to spike dramatically.

The India Route: Goods brought from the Indian side face multi-layered monetary collections by various Naga armed groups, government departments, and bus terminal associations, which also drives up commodity prices significantly upon arrival in the Naga region.

U Chin Maung, Chairman of the Peace Procurement Committee of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang/Anmai (NSCN-K/AM), told CNI News that the current government is also opening gates and collecting taxes, and that if those gates relax their tax collection, the armed groups could relax theirs as well.

President U Min Aung Hlaing arriving in the Naga region

He stated: "On our side, we do not collect taxes to the extent that it would cause such high commodity prices. At our Leshi gate, we only charge 20,000 Kyats per car. However, in Leshi town, the car committee said they have to pay 20,000 Kyats per barrel of fuel to the government's General Administration Department (GAD). Then, another 20,000 Kyats goes to the car committee, and the payments at the entry/exit gates are even higher. At the checkpoints we maintain for security, our collection is not that high.

As an armed organization regarding tax collection, we sent one of our majors to the government's General Administration Department to meet with government officials. We told them that if they reduce their fees, we are also ready to reduce ours. Even now, we do not collect taxes by force. If the current government can relax this, we can also relax our gate fees."

During his visit to the Naga region, President U Min Aung Hlaing stated that the government would fulfill and carry out what is necessary for the development, stability, and peace of the Naga region.

Because the Naga region is a mountainous area, it faces scarcities. Additionally, it is currently confronting challenges such as an insufficient number of school teachers, high commodity prices, tax collections by armed groups, the military, police, and the GAD, as well as delays in the flow of goods.

Currently, various Naga armed groups—including the NSCN-K/AM, NSCN-K/YA, NSCN-IM, NSCN-HR, ENNO/ENDA, and NPDF—alongside Meitei armed groups and the KIA, are based in the Naga region and actively operating.

CNI News

May 20, 2026

The Chinese Ambassador to Myanmar, Ms. Ma Jia, and Myanmar Vice President U Nyo Saw met to discuss the implementation of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC).

The meeting took place on May 19, 2026, at the reception hall of the Presidential Palace in Nay Pyi Taw.

During the meeting, they discussed upgrading cooperation in trade and investment sectors, including bilateral projects, ensuring border area stability, and implementing the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor.

Additionally, official sources from Nay Pyi Taw released that both sides discussed ongoing operations regarding the crackdown on online gambling and online scams, as well as drug enforcement and prevention measures.

CNI News

May 20, 2026

Because the Naga Self-Administered Zone in Myanmar relies heavily on the Indian side, leaders from Naga organizations stated that the livelihoods and businesses of local people could face severe hardships if the trade gates are closed.

Transportation from the Myanmar mainland to the Naga region is extremely difficult and costly; therefore, the region primarily imports goods from the Indian states of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.

The towns of Leshi (Lahe), Nanyun, and Pansaung in the Myanmar-Naga region mainly carry out the flow of goods by opening trade gates with the Indian side.

Regarding the development of the Naga region, U Chin Maung, Chairman of the Peace Procurement Committee of the NSCN-K/AM, told CNI News that because they rely primarily on India, they plan to hold state-level discussions concerning the India routes to negotiate and turn them back into official channels.

He stated, "For regional development, we rely mainly on India. Therefore, we have plans to speak at the state level regarding the India routes to negotiate and make them official channels again. Currently, since the Indian routes are closed, the people are suffering. When the Pansaung route was closed, Nanyun and Pansaung fell into deep trouble. These livelihood matters are on routes where we move while relying mainly on the Indian side. For that reason, we will coordinate and negotiate to achieve the best outcome for these matters. For the time being, they are prioritizing and traveling via the Nagaland border in Leshi Township. That route is working fine up to the present, except for the poor road conditions. The trade flow there is moving normally and smoothly."

A view of the Naga–India border trade gate.

The Pansaung Pass route connecting the Naga region and India is a major border trade route, and authorities have currently closed the Pansaung border trade gate.

Furthermore, transportation via the Monywa–Homalin–Khamti waterway—which is the river route from mainland Myanmar—is also difficult due to the narrowing of the river channel and dominance by the PDF, causing a disruption in the flow of goods.

U Shan Maw, Chairman of the Naga Traditional Culture Association in Khamti Township, told CNI News that regarding trade, the Naga region is in a position where it has to rely on Nagaland to survive.

He said, "We don't know the details about the closure of the Pansaung gate yet. We understand that they are negotiating. Currently, we are in a situation where we have to rely only on Nagaland to survive. This is because everything from rice, oil, salt, gasoline, and diesel is being imported from Nagaland."

It is learned that in the past, when border gates (such as the Pansaung gate) were closed by the Indian government due to frequent clashes between the Naga armed group (NSCN-K) and the Indian military, the Naga region immediately faced food shortages.

A view of a Naga village in Leshi Township.

U Mazoe Laung Wee, a member of the Pyithu Hluttaw (House of Representatives) from the Naga National Party (NNP), told CNI News that because the Pansaung gate is currently closed, the public in Nanyun could face crises and difficulties, and commerce and the flow of goods could encounter extreme hardships.

He stated, "The Naga Self-Administered Zone does have a connection with this border. However, the closure of the Pansaung gate alone can lead to hardships and crises for the public in Nanyun. Yet, the exact reason why the gates on the Leshi side have not closed is not thoroughly known. They are moving with a plan to erect fences. As for us, there are our fellow Nagas on that side, and there are our fellow Nagas on this side as well. If those big gates are closed and fences are built, the social interactions and flow of goods between the Nagas on that side and the Nagas on this side could face extreme difficulties."

It is reported that the Pansaung border gate on the India–Myanmar border in the Naga Self-Administered Zone of Sagaing Region, Myanmar, has been closed indefinitely under the arrangement of both the Indian and Myanmar governments due to regional instability and clashes.

CNI News

May 20, 2026

Following Operation 1027 in northern Shan State, political analyst Dr. M Kawn La told CNI News that the government, KIA (Kachin Independence Army), and Shan armed groups should unite to control the dominance of China and the increased influx of Chinese nationals.

Currently, in the territories seized and controlled by the Kokang army (MNDAA), only the Chinese language is permitted to be spoken, and only the Chinese Yuan is used as currency. Furthermore, signboards featuring Chinese characters are being erected, and Kokang household registration lists and identity cards are being issued.

In these areas, the purchase of land by Chinese nationals is on the rise, and the Kokang army has been found granting business rights and mineral extraction permits.

Dr. M Kawn La expressed his view to CNI News that the influx and encroachment of Chinese nationals into northern Shan State can only be prevented if peace is achieved with the Kachin armies, Shan armies, and other EAO (Ethnic Armed Organization) forces in northern Shan, allowing them to handle the situation effectively.

Villages with Myanmar names being changed to Chinese names by the MNDAA.

He stated, "To prevent this, I see that we can only stop it if peace is achieved with the Kachin armies, SSPP armies, Shan armies, and EAO forces in northern Shan, and if the situation is handled effectively. Right now, regarding the offensive in Kachin State, the Myitkyina–Mandalay route is already open and in good condition. Instead of focusing on fighting to the finish, my view is that implementing internal unity as quickly as possible is more important to swiftly protect against foreign encroachment and the loss of territories. Therefore, to protect northern Shan State, it is vital that the KIO and SSPP achieve peace with the government in northern Shan to defend the region. I believe that only when we can block that side can we implement measures on this side. Thus, in the Kachin State war, peace is more crucial than fighting until the war ends. I see that it is vital to secure peace so that the KIA and SSPP forces can unite to protect northern Shan State."

Since initiating Operation 1027 on October 27, 2023, the Kokang army (MNDAA) has been in discussions with the government and the military to gain administrative control over areas beyond the Kokang Self-Administered Zone, including Hsenwi, Kutkai, Namhkam, Mongko, Chinshwehaw, Hsenwi (Theinni), Kyukoke-Pansai, and Hsipaw.

Currently, the Kokang army is building up not only its military strength but also its population in northern Shan State, primarily by bringing in Chinese nationals from China to increase the Chinese population, Dr. M Kawn La told CNI News.

He mentioned that the local population in Kutkai, Muse, Kyukoke (Pansai), Mongko, and Mongpaw consists of Kachin people, and the KIA's Brigades 4, 6, and 10 are also active in those areas. He added that if the territorial expansion by a group whose population is less than 200,000 is handled cohesively, there is still time.

MNDAA troops seen together.

Dr. M Kawn La said, "It needs to be handled both politically and militarily. Why? Because demographically, if we allow the Kokang—whose population is not even 200,000—to expand their territory to this extent like a proxy, I view it as a weakness on our part. If we handle this both politically and militarily, it is still manageable. If we leave it as it is, it will become much more difficult in the future. From what I know, the Kokang are currently building up their military and manpower, mainly by importing Chinese nationals from China to increase their population. We will have to take serious action regarding this matter. In particular, once political discussions are concluded, the Immigration department and the Ministry of Home Affairs will need to strictly enforce regulations. They must be pushed back to their original place east of the Salween River in Kunlong. To do that, we also need to negotiate properly and settle things with China. It won't be easy if we are fighting among ourselves. If we are fighting each other, we won't be able to negotiate with China either. In the meantime, the MNDAA will just step in and take advantage of the situation."

According to Section 56, Subsection (e) of the 2008 Constitution, the Kokang Self-Administered Zone was formed by grouping Konkyan Township and Laukkai Township in Shan State.

However, military and political analysts assess that the MNDAA has currently seized territories far beyond its self-administered zone, backed by support from China.

CNI News

May 20, 2026

The peace efforts being made by various factions in Myanmar lack effectiveness and appear to be just for show, political analyst U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News. Following independence in 1948, the armed conflicts that emerged in Myanmar expanded more broadly after February 2021, leading to the rise of hundreds of armed organizations. Amidst these political and military conflicts, civilians have been forced to abandon their properties and flee to safer areas, while continuously facing life-threatening dangers.

U Htet Aung Kyaw noted that the current peace process is not constructive and seems to be merely for show. He emphasized that to achieve a real breakthrough toward peace, actions more substantial than the current approach need to be demonstrated.

He stated, "To be frank, it feels like both sides are engaging in the peace process only because they cannot avoid it. One side might issue a peace invitation, seemingly with the attitude of 'we invited them, whether they come or not is their business.' Meanwhile, the other side makes impossible demands, taking the stance that 'we won't go because they won't concede to our demands.' It has become a blame game where each side says, 'We want peace, but the other side doesn't.' What they are doing now looks like it's just for show. This has been done throughout successive eras. They only do as much as previous governments did. One side also uses the excuse that the other hasn't invited their allied groups to the peace talks. Similar things happened in the past. To put it simply, because they keep doing what doesn't work, it feels like it's just for show. If they genuinely want peace, they need to show more substantive action than this."

Furthermore, he went on to say that it is now time to approach the peace process with a new model.

Ethnic youths seen together.

"Regarding what kind of new model should be used for the approach, when issuing a peace invitation, it must be done in a way that genuinely demonstrates a desire for peace. Both sides must show this willingness. Under Section 261 of the 2008 Constitution, only the President has the authority to appoint Chief Ministers for Regions and States. This strengthens centralization. It serves as a major obstacle to moving toward a genuine federal system. In reality, whoever wins the election in the respective State or Region should become the Chief Minister. Right now, the military and the USDP can team up to amend this section. To demonstrate a real desire to move toward a federal system, the new government should amend Section 261. If they make such an amendment, the other side might develop trust. In this way, peace could move one step forward."

Currently, the government led by President U Min Aung Hlaing has included dialogue for peace among the tasks to be carried out within its first 100 days. However, Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) have low trust in the current government's peace process, and it cannot yet be assumed that the government can offer enough incentives to bring EAOs to the peace track, political analyst Dr. Myo Set Thwe told CNI News.

Government and military leaders seen together.

He said, "It can be inferred that the EAOs still have weak trust in the current government's peace process. Since some EAOs are connected with China, it would be smoother if China constructively participates and helps resolve the issues. The main thing is to gain the trust of the EAOs. It is necessary to clearly understand why they are bearing arms. There needs to be proper give-and-take. It won't work if the government speaks from a position of superiority just because they are the government. The government cannot yet provide the incentives needed to bring the EAOs onto the peace track."

Military and political analysts pointed out that while new thoughts and assumptions may emerge under the current unconventional political landscape, differences can be negotiated and resolved if interactions are carried out with the interest of the Union in mind.

They also highlighted that the government and the military should open the door for all relevant stakeholders to participate when issuing peace invitations, and should forge peace from a standpoint of inclusivity.

CNI News 

May 19, 2026

Military and political observers are currently analyzing and discussing how the new government, led by President U Min Aung Hlaing, should separately approach the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Arakan Army (AA) when practically implementing peace initiatives.

Observers point out that the KIA is striving for liberation across Myanmar's northwestern region, which includes Kachin State, Sagaing Region, Chin State, and Rakhine State.

On the other hand, the Arakan Army (AA), formed in April 2009, initially established its foothold in Paletwa Township, Chin State, at the dawn of its revolution. It later penetrated Rakhine State and successfully seized control of a route to the sea.

Similarly, the AA has allied with the CNF, KIA, ABSDF, PDF, TNLA, and MNDAA in the Sagaing, Magway, and Ayeyarwady Regions, as well as Chin, Kachin, and Shan States, to fight the Myanmar Tatmadaw (military) and expand its controlled territories.

Political analyst Dr. Myo Set Thway told CNI News that based on the current military landscape, although the AA is generally under the KIA's influence, the approach to handling these two groups will differ. He emphasized that China's role as a mediator is crucial in dealing with both groups.

KIA leader Gun Maw and the Sagaing Region seen together.

He stated: "Generally speaking, you could say the AA is under the KIA's control, but in reality, the AA was born out of the KIA's nurturing. This means the AA is the KIA's disciple. However, this master-and-disciple dynamic is no longer identical. The way you have to deal with the KIA is different from the way you deal with the AA. True, they are master and disciple, but you must treat the master one way and the disciple another. This is because their stances on their armed paths are different. Primarily, if China steps in to mediate, the AA situation could be resolved. When negotiating with these armed groups, force is sometimes required, but dealing with the AA seems to require a bit more than that. Even though they possess significant manpower, if the Tatmadaw and the government include China's mediation in their dealings, balancing power with the AA will likely be easier. The KIA, however, could be more complicated. Due to the geographical terrain, penetrating their territory will likely be harder. The main issue is that the AA is demanding a confederate status, and they have territories under their control. Talking about peace also means playing a power game on the side. You have to project your power while making a deal with the other side. We cannot grant the confederate status they are demanding. So, how much will they be given? Will Rakhine State be granted a self-administered state status or not? These are the kinds of discussions that will have to take place."

Military and political observers also highlight that, given the current territorial landscape, the KIA might use Myanmar's domestic resources—such as rare earths and jade—as leverage in negotiations.

Political analyst Dr. Aung Myo told CNI News that the KIA cannot be viewed in the same light as other armed groups. Because the two groups (AA and KIA) have different objectives, the negotiation and dialogue format cannot be a one-size-fits-all approach.

An AA leader seen.

He explained: "The first point is that the KIA cannot be lumped together with the others. The reason they cannot be considered the same is that they are influenced by the American Baptist Mission and the Western bloc. They engage economically with China, but ideologically, they lean towards the West. Another factor is the division among their own ethnic groups; there is also bullying. On the other hand, the Shanni forces are a major presence there. If the Shanni forces ally with the Bamar, they become the strongest force in Kachin State, which raises the question of whether this region will even remain as Kachin State. The territorial situation could even revert to the pre-General Aung San era, resembling the setup under the 1935 Government of Burma Act. Regarding the KIA, agreements and cooperation from China's Yunnan provincial government are necessary. Why? Because there are Kachin populations living inside Yunnan. That is a point of difference from the AA. Furthermore, Kachin is a landlocked state—another difference from the AA. In terms of population, they are not as numerous as the Rakhine. Another key point is that places they desperately want, like Myitkyina, were not even included in the Kachin Hills during the colonial era. Therefore, in every strategic consideration and thought process, they cannot be treated the same as the AA."

Currently, the AA operates independently within Rakhine State, while in Northern Shan State, it conducts military operations as part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance (MNDAA-AA-TNLA).
A ceasefire agreement was reached between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the AA in November 2022, but fighting erupted again in November 2023, and military tensions remain high to this day.

Currently, the peace dialogue sector is included among the tasks that the new government cabinet, led by President U Min Aung Hlaing, plans to implement within its first 100 days.

Military and political observers point out that trust must be rebuilt to implement an all-inclusive peace process in Myanmar. They emphasize that responsibility and accountability are fundamental to carrying out peace processes, and without such an environment, it will not be easy for a peace initiative to succeed.