CNI News

8 February 2025

Those who have illegally arrived in the US with no residence permit should leave the country in advance before being deported by the US officials, warned the Myanmar Embassy to the US on 5th February 2025. 

Donald Trump who won in the US presidential election becomes president, the US government is carrying out to send those arrived  in the US illegally or with no residence permit back to their native countries.

In doing so, the US government will handcuffed the illegal residents and be deported by military aircraft and those who don't want to go back to their countries will be sent to the Guantanamo Bay detention camp.

"Those who have already arrived in the US illegally - if they leave the US in advance before being deported, they will be free from being handcuffed and being imprisoned. Moreover, they can go home after selling their assets and if they apply for a visa to return in the future, they have a better chance of getting a visa." wrote a social account called Moe Chan.

If Myanmar citizens were facing the expiration of your legal documents such as residence visa, they would be designated as undocumented aliens and because they could be deported, we inform them to carry out to secure residency through their plans, released the Myanmar Embassy to the US.

Myanmar citizens who have already arrived in the US illegally or undocumented Myanmar citizens should leave the US in advance before the US officials deport them; if they do not have any type of travel ticket for the return journey or if their passports have expired for quite some time, they can apply for ID cards and application forms and requirements can be found on the embassy website and the embassy can be contacted promptly by email/phone, said in the statement released by the Myanmar Embassy.

The US government has also suspended the work permits of more than 300,000 Venezuelans and deported them while Indian and Colombian migrants were also repatriated by US military aircraft.

The US government reportedly has also listed nearly 700 Myanmar nationals for repatriation.

CNI News

7 February 2025

The goals of ethnic armed groups are no more the same in the political landscape of Myanmar that has emerged since the overthrow of the NLD government, review military and political analysts.

The original goal of the EAOs, which was to build a federal union, was the same and so was the achievement of full rights to self-determination. However, organizations that have gained military advantage have had the goals that are higher than federalism, Chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

" Organizations that have gained military advantage are demanding political statuses such as confederation higher than federalism. In other words, they have raised the price politically on purpose. But in the long run,  I think they will return within the framework of a normal federal model. When the other side does not accept the federal normal position, I consider that the price has increased. Fake federal unions were created during the eras of U Nu and U Ne Win. If we end the game with a fake federal union this time, it won't be acceptable. So, they are fighting for a true federal union. So, they are demanding things such as confederation to gain a true federal union, I think." said Col. Khun Okkar.

While seeing the government, the Tatmadaw and leaders of armed organizations

The MNDAA announced that they would not collaborate with the NUG in 2024 while the TNLA has expressed that they would wage battles in collaboration with revolutionary forces. The MNDAA, the TNLA and the AA probably will discuss separately with China or the SAC.

TNLA,AA, MNDAA ,as members of the Northern Alliance, discussed with the SAC or China in the past and so did the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC). 

Now they are discussing with China or the SAC separately. Since ethnic armed organizations are located in different regions, although their goals may differ, their goals may be the same in overthrowing the dictatorship, some review.

The goal of overthrowing the dictatorship emerged only after 2021 and EAOs have had their original revolution for their rights, spokesperson of the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA), U Myo Kyaw told CNI News.

" Overthrowing the dictatorship was put on the agenda only after 2021. EAOs have had their original revolution for the rights of their people - their sovereignty, self-determination. These two points are different. Now that some EAOs have been able to dominate their regions, whether they fight for the mainland is being questioned. Some EAOs have wanted to take all the territories that they have attacked and captured." said U Myo Kyaw.

While seeing the leaders of the three northern allies

The SAC met with the MNDAA among the ethnic armed groups involved in the armed conflict with the help of China and a temporary ceasefire has been reached.

The SAC probably will meet with the TNLA, review some people.

AA has said that it wants a confederation at the lowest level and has aspirations to establish a Rakhine country at the highest level. 

In the same way, if necessary, because a new country would be established, Ta'ang (Palaung) people should be ready, said Maj-Gen Tar Bone Kyaw, secretary of the TNLA.

In the same way, ethnic armed groups would come to express ideas that go beyond federalism in 2025, said Lt-Gen Gun Maw, a leader of the KIA.

CNI News

7 February 2008

The State Administration Council (SAC) was holding on the 2008 Constitution because it didn't want to stage a coup d'état, Director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News. 

Although the SAC has been in service for four years, because peace and stability were still needed, the state of emergency was extended for another six months, announced the meeting of the National Defense and Security Council on 31st January 2025.

The SAC was holding on to the 2008 Constitution because it didn't want to stage a coup d'état, and because it was leading to politics and it would continue to maintain political dialogues, Director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News.

While the meeting of the National Defense and Security Council was being held

" The SAC has been holding on to the 2008 Constitution because it didn't want to stage a coup d'état. If it wanted to stage a coup d'état, it would have staged already since early. If a coup is needed at this time, what is the reason? You have to find it yourself. There is no reason. Because the SAC is making preparations to discuss,  politics, it will continue to maintain political dialogues. It's hard to say about military affairs. We have to wait for some time to know the result that will come out." said U Thein Tun Oo.

Even during the period of holding power, the SAC was struggling to achieve stability. If the SAC staged a coup d'état, it would have things to face on all sides, Vice Chairman of the National Democratic Force (NDF) U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News. 

" In my opinion, the SAC won't stage a coup d'état because during the period of holding power, the SAC is struggling to achieve stability. If staged a coup d'état, it would have things to face on all sides after the constitution is no more. It's unlikely for the SAC to stage a coup d'état, I think." said U Htet Aung Kyaw.

While seeing the book on the 2008 Constitution

The SAC would hold a general election in 2025 and the State power would be handed over to the winning party, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

On the other hand, armed revolutionary forces have proclaimed that they will destroy the election without fail. Because of political landscape that changed after February 2021, some EAOs expressed that they wanted to achieve confederation or build a separate independent new country.

In Myanmar's history, U Ne Win held a general election in 1960 and staged a coup d'état in 1966. So, some are concerned that the SAC will stage a coup d'état due to a situation.

CNI News

6 February 2025

Around 700 local Shanni people from Kyaung Le and Pinkha Villages, Banmauk Township, upper Sagaing Region, are being abducted and tortured by a group allied with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), released Shanni CSOs on 3rd February 2025.

Nearly 300 local Shanni ethnic people from Kyaung Le Village, Banmauk Township by were forcibly abducted and taken away by a joint group led by the KIA on 29th January 2025. 
In the same way, nearly 400 local Shanni ethnic people from Pinkha Village, Banmauk Township were also abducted by force by joint forces led by the KIA 30th January 2025, reported the Shanni CSOs.

" Among the Shanni villagers who were abducted were included children eight months to three years, whose parents had to flee to China, young women and elderly people as well as Buddhist monks. Joint forces led by the KIA committed many inhumane acts such as dousing the Shanni villagers who were tied up with hot water including assault with gun butts, beatings, and torture." said in the statement released by the Shanni CSOs.

According to some villagers who escaped, joint forces led by the KIA fired into the village with heavy weapons and damaged monasteries, and the joint forces were digging trenches under cover of religious buildings.

The statement was jointly released by the Shanni Nationalities Unity Association (SNUA), the Shanni Youths Network (Waingmaw), the Shanni Youths Network (Banmauk), the Shanni Youths Network (Mohnyin), the Shanni Youths Network (Mogaung), and the Tai-Leng Students Union (TSU).

The KIA-PDF joint forces attack Kyaung Le and Pinkha Villages and are making military preparations to capture Banmauk Town.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw, the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA) and the KIA-PDF joint forces are being active in Banmauk Township, and the KIA-PDF joint forces are fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the SNA in the township.

KIA-PDF is using detained Shanni ethnic people as human shields during the battles, reported the Shanni CSOs.

CNI News

6 February 2025

To say that 'Myanmar could enjoy peace only if China helps' was not correct and Myanmar people themselves must work for internal peace, Chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

Due to China's brokered engagement, a ceasefire was reached between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), said Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Miss Mao Ning at the regular press conference on 20th January 2025.

Moreover, there are reports that a discussion between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the TNLA/the AA is scheduled this month. The Northern Alliance (the TNLA, the AA and the MNDAA) have announced that they would discuss peace with the Myanmar Tatmadaw with China's brokered engagement.

While seeing three northern groups and secretary of the NSPNC

China's mediation has not yet reached the level of peace; Stakeholders must carry out themselves to have peace; Myanmar won't have peace only when China provided, said Col. Khun Okkar

" In my opinion, peace can't be built through military means. Peace can only be built with military means, political means and diplomatic affairs. Only when a political agreement is reached and a good result is produced, will we have peace. At present, China's mediation hasn't reached peace. Regional flow of goods, opening trade routes, economy and stability are just prioritized. A political consensus is needed to bring peace to the entire country. It's not true that Myanmar will only have peace if China provides it. Stakeholders within the country must work for peace. China is carrying out the stability in the regions re."lated to it and will work to develop its economy. It is China's policy."

China would continue to actively support the peace process in northern Myanmar, said Miss Mao Ning, spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry. China has had the upper hand in Myanmar politics, U Kyi Myint, a political commentator, told CNI News.

It's not because China is clever, but because we are weak. The SAC has to act humbly when dealing with China. The SAC has no one to depend on except for China. 

While seeing two leaders of the AA

Russia can't help the SAC. The three brotherhoods (AA,TNLA,MNDAA) , especially the MNDAA speak Chinese and use Chinese currency. China has automatic influence on the MNDAA. In the same way, the UWSA and the NDAA (Myla) are the same as the MNDAA. So, China has the upper hand in Myanmar politics." said U Kyi Myint.

Myanmar is accelerating collaborative projects with China and Myanmar will continue to be China's reliable neighbor and good friend, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing at the  Chinese New Year 2025 ceremony.

Battles are breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and armed elements across the country and the Myanmar Tatmadaw has lost control of its military camps by the hundred, the Northeast Command and the West Command as well as over 90 townships.

The MNDAA, the UWSA, the NDAA, the KIA, the TNLA and the SSPP are active near the Chinese border.

CNI News

5 February 2025

EAOs did not appear to be strongly opposed to the election if the territories that they have captured were not destroyed, Chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News. 

At present, the Myanmar Tatmadaw has lost control of its several hundred military camps and over 90 townships including the Northeast Command and the West Command.

In addition to the challenges facing the SAC, there is still a need for stability and peace to ensure that elections can be held. The SAC has extended its term of office for another 6 months on February 1, 2025, in accordance with the constitution.

While seeing leaders of northern armed groups

" EAOs don't seem to strongly oppose the election if their territories they have controlled are not destroyed, especially Kachin, Chin and northern Shan State EAOs. Wa, Palaung, Kokang and Myla groups can be neutral. I don't think there will be any violent protests because according to the international law, international community doesn't accept opposing or destroying an election although there are various kinds of elections. So, I think the election could be held." said Col. Khun Okkar.

Military and political observers are watching whether the election could be held or not even though Chairman of the SAC has repeatedly said during 2024 that the election would be held in 2025.

Although Chairman of the SAC had said that the election would be held in August 2023, it cannot be held until today.

While seeing political parties

Due to regional instability and security conditions at present, political parties are also unable to carry out public organizing activities, resulting in a distorted situation, spokesperson of the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA) U Myo Kyaw told CNI News.

" The SAC formed the Union Election Commission with their men. Political parties were asked to register. But according to the current situation, it is difficult to even implement the work of a political party. As political parties, they can't organize, they can't gather people, and lots of people can't take to the streets. This is a big distortion, I think." said U Myo Kyaw.

Elections for the three Hluttaws must be conducted in accordance with the law, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing at the Work Coordination Meeting of the Union Government on 3rd February 2025.

Political parties would have to make necessary preparations and because security and stability would be needed in order that election campaigns could be carried out, the government should have made systematic preparations in accordance with law so that the election could be successfully held, he said.

CNI News

5 February 2025

Political parties must make necessary preparations for the election, said Chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC), Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing. He said the above at the Work Coordination Meeting of the Union Government that was held on 3rd February 2025.

The SAC would make efforts to ensure broad participation of representatives of all social classes in the Hluttaws that emerged after the general election, said Chairman of the SAC.
 
" Political parties must make necessary preparations, and security and stability would be needed so that election campaigns could be conducted," said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

While seeing Region and State chief ministers

He did not say exactly what necessary preparations meant what issues. The government must systematically calculate the issues that need to be prepared in advance to successfully hold the election and act in accordance with the laws; State and Region chief ministers and officials needed to study the laws related to elections in detail; and political parties must have made necessary preparations, he said.

Elections for the three Hluttaw - Pyithu Hluttaw, Amyotha Hluttaw and Region/State Hluttaw must be conducted in accordance with the law, said Chairman of the SAC.

A general election would be held in 2025 and the State power would be handed over to the winning party, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing. However, battles are breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and armed elements across the country and the rule of law is weak in the cities and stability is deteriorating.

CNI News

4 February 2025

The State Administration Council (SAC) cannot grant territories to EAOs which attacked and captured territories under the 2008 Constitution, Director of the Thayninga Institute for Startegy Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News. 

Political parties and political observers held a seminar in Yangon on February 2, 2025 under the title of  the State crisis and roles of government, citizens and political parties.

He answered the above to the question by CNI News at the meeting regarding the video footage that has been circulating from the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance (MNDAA).

" Because the SAC has kept the power under the 2008 Constitution, it cannot override the constitution. The video in question was released by one side (MNDAA) and is it a propaganda or an official agreement? It's like drawing conclusions based on one piece of information. They have released it during a temporary ceasefire. The SAC hasn't released it officially. So, we cannot draw any conclusions. What factors will determine whether or not the territory was given. The data is incomplete, and we can't say whether it's possible or not." he said.

The MNDAA must retreat from Lashio and the Myanmar government designated four districts - Kutkai, Theinni, Kunlong and Laukkai as Special Region - 1 and self-administration has been officially granted to the MNDAA, said an administrative official from the MNDAA at the Chinese New Year celebration in the video clip which has been circulating on the social media.

While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing

The SAC could not grant territories to EAOs under the 2008 Constitution; if it wanted to grant territories, it must stage a coup d'état after abolishing the 2008 Constitution; he didn't think Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing would do so, said U Thein Tun Oo.

" There is a possibility. If Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing wants to grant territories to EAOs, he must abolish the 2008 Constitution and stage a coup d'état. But I don't think he will do so. If he granted territories, he had made a big mistake. Later, when the data becomes available, review probably will be out." said U Thein Tun Oo.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw and the MNDAA reached a temporary ceasefire agreement because of China's mediation, said the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Miss Mao Ning at the regular press conference on 20th January 2025.

After a temporary ceasefire agreement was reached between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the MNDAA, A video footage went viral claiming that 4 districts have been designated as Special Region (1) and there were also reports that the Kokang troops would withdraw in groups.

Whether the designation of the area as a Special Region (1) is granted under the 2008 Constitution or not, questions are being raised among military and political observers.

At present, the MNDAA has seized control of Chin Shwe Haw, Laukkai, Kyukote, Mong Ko, Theinni, Phaungsai and Kunlong Towns, where are China-Myanmar border trade posts including the Northeast Command of the Myanmar Tatmadaw and Lashio City in northern Shan State.

CNI News

4 February 2025

China could take part in Myanmar's domestic affairs more than the current period, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs analyst, told CNI News. 

China was carrying out to make a great economic market arise in collaboration with the ASEAN countries before western countries could take part in it and because China is trying to gain a good image that it is carrying out the global peace as able as it can, it could probably take part in Myanmar's domestic affairs more than the current period, she said.

" China is trying hard in order to make a great economic market arise in Asia in collaboration with the ASEAN countries before western countries can take part in it. So, China wants Myanmar's civil war to end as soon as possible. China is trying to make Myanmar participate in the great market. China seems to continue  trying it. It depends on the discussions between the armed groups and the military council. China is negotiating everything like this. Not only in Myanmar but also in the Middle East and Ukraine. If things go wrong in the world, it could lead to World War III. If there is a third world war, it could result in a nuclear war. The whole world could suffer. It is trying to create the image that it is doing its best for world peace. So, China could take part in Myanmar's domestic affairs more than the current period." said Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw.

Because Myanmar has an exit to the Bay of Bengal for China, China would intervene in Myanmar's domestic affairs as much as it could, pointed out military and political analysts. 

While seeing Chinese FM Wang Yi and Sr-Gen Than Shwe (Retired)

So, it wants to hold the election ASAP and is brokering to make dialogues arise. Because it could take more time if dialogues were held, There are suggestions to take a risk by holding an election, U Khun Sai who is taking part in the peace process, told CNI News.

" Myanmar people have been suffering during the state of emergency for four years. They will suffer for long if the discussions are conducted. So, there are suggestions that a risk should be taken by holding an election. If the election was held, a person alone could not maintain three powers and there would be distribution of power. And then, there might be more opportunities to create what we want, which some have urged." said U Khun Sai.

At present, the State Administration Council has extended the state of emergency for another six months. Therefore, the international community is watching to see if elections can be held within the next six months and so are military and political analysts.

In this context, they are also watching to see how China will further intervene for the ability to hold the election. At present, China is trying to stop the fighting and promote peace talks between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the Northern Alliance (TNLA-AA-MNDAA).