CNI News
12 January 2025

The chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC) explained the matters relating to the election program to Belarusian FM H.E. Mr. Maksim Ryzhenkov when he met the Belarusian top diplomat in Naypyidaw on 9th January 2025. 

Moreover, they discussed the matters regarding the promotion of the defense cooperation and the last developments of Myanmar, reported the SAC.

The SAC reportedly explained the preparation for holding a free and fair general election. 

The chairman of the SAC said that the election would be held in 2025; the SAC would strive to create a dignified Hluttaw and the State power would be handed over to the winning party after the election had been held. 

However, he did not said exactly the time when the election would be held.

Those close to the SAC said that the SAC could announce in May or July, 2025 the time table when the election would be held and the transfer of power could be conducted in April, 2026.

At present, battles are severely breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and revolutionary forces in Sagaing, Magway, Mandalay, Bago, Tanintharyi Regions, Shan, Kachin, Chin, Mon, Kayah, Karen and Rakhine States.

Revolutionary forces have announced that they would launch operations in Ayeyarwady Region in 2025. 

The NUG and the PDFs trying to overthrow the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the Myanmar Tatmadaw have announced that they will completely destroy the election that will be held by the SAC.

CNI News
12 January 2025

If the Bagan region became a war zone, waging battles without damaging ancient temples and pagodas was impossible, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

Nyaung U Township PDF (Ogre Army) announced on 8th January 2025 that it would wage operations in the Bagan region, Nyaung U Township in 2025, a World Culture Heritage Site.

It was impossible to wage battles in the Bagan region without damaging ancient pagodas and temples; because they are fighting at the edges of power instead of fighting at the source of power, it would bring loss to the country, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

" If the Bagan region becomes a battle zone, it is impossible to damage ancient pagodas and temples. Although one side protects ancient pagodas and temples, the other might not protect them. These ancient things are not owned by the current armed groups. We will continue to maintain them. In fact, they have to fight at the power source. If they fight at the edges of power, it could bring loss to the country." he said.

It would carry out operations without damaging ancient pagodas and cultural heritages and the main military targets would be attacked with specially trained troops, said Nyaung U PDF.

If the Myanmar Tatmadaw counterattacked with heavy weapons, ancient pagodas and cultural heritages could be damaged; the Bagan region operation would be waged together with alliance forces from Myingyan, Taungtha, Natogyi, Kyaukpadaung, and Chauk Townships, said the PDF.

If military operations were conducted amid the pagodas in the Bagan region, the pagodas could be damaged more or less, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News.

While seeing Bagan pagodas

" If they go into the midst of the pagodas and start a war, the pagodas will be damaged more or less. they say they will avoid something unable to avoid. To tell you frankly, this is no longer an era of typical soldiers' battles." he said.

The people are worried that the Bagan region will become a battle zone, moreover, as the region depend on the tourists, the tourism industry could be damaged, pointed out military and political analysts.

The Bagan region was included on the World Heritage List by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) in 2019.

CNI News
12 January 2025

The KIA-PDF joint forces arrested about 200 youths to recruit in the Indawgyi region, Mohnyin Township, Kachin State on 9th January 2025, said locals. 

70 residents of Indawgyi Town and over 100 Ma Mon Kaing villagers were arrested somewhere on the road between Indawgyi Town and Ma Mon Kaing Village to recruit by the KIA-PDF joint forces. In the same way, youths from Nan Ba Dae and Le Mon Villages were arrested and taken away by the KIA-PDF joint forces. 

Those arrested and taken away were sent to the KIA-PDF military camp which is located at the entrance to Nyaung Bin Village, said locals. 

At present, the KIA-PDF joint forces are launching offensives to capture Bhamo and they captured Mansi a few days ago.

While the entrance signboard to Indawgyi Town

The KIA-PDF joint forces were launching three operations in order to control places along the Uru River in Kachin State and those along Chindwin River, said military. analysts. 

In coloration with the PDFs, the ABSDF and the AA, the KIA is waging battles and if it was able to implement fully, military operations could emerge in Magway and Mandalay Regions, and more arms and narcotic drugs would arrive in the mainland and India, pointed out military analysts.

CNI News

11 January 2025

If the election was able to be held in 2025, it would be more convenient than gripping power by only one person and changes could be made, military and political analysts told CNI News. 

If the election could not be held in 2025, Naypyidaw would have such a bad problem that it would be in a badly hit situation, U Khun Sai, a person who is taking part in the peace process, told CNI News.

" If the election could be held, three powers currently held by only one person would be held by three groups and more changes could be made. If the election could not be held, Naypyidaw could have a bad problem because our neighboring countries want Myanmar to hold the election. If the election could be held, arms and ammunition would run out sooner or later. But if the election was postponed, the flow of arms and ammunition into Myanmar would continue. And then, even if the SAC was not overthrown, it could be badly attacked." he said.

While the UEC was explaining how to vote to political parties

The SAC would hold the election without fail because it had promised its neighboring countries and international community, considered military and political analysts.

If the election was not able to be held, trust in the SAC by neighboring countries and the international community might be further diminished than before, they considered. 

According to the current situation, it would be difficult to hold the election, spokesperson of the 7 EAO Alliance, Col. Saw Kyaw Nyunt told CNI News.

" Election is part of democracy. But when an election is held, I understand that public participation is also key. And regional stability is essential as well. Because the SAC has promised the international community that it will hold the election, if the SAC makes it happen, it will happen. But, I don't know how it will happen. At a time like this, there are lots of difficulties and challenges to hold the election." he said.

While Chinese FM Wang Yi and Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing were meeting

The SAC might announce in May, 2025 when the election will be held and the election could be held in November. 

And then, the State power will be handed over to the winning political party in April, 2026, according to reliable sources.

Preparations are underway to change the voting system in the election that will be held by the SAC to a machine-based voting system, rather than the previous system of stamping ballots.

Based on machines in use in over 30 countries, including India, the voting machine that will be used by the SAC reportedly is Myanmar's own self-developed voting machine.

CNI News

10 January 2024

After the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has seized control of Mansi Town in Kachin State, the Mansi route might be the first step to march into the mainland, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News. 

The KIA/PDF joint forces attacked and captured three remaining battalions of the Myanmar Tatmadaw im Mansi, Kachin State on 8th January 2025.

There are three routes to penetrate into the mainland and the route from Mansi may be the first route, Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News.

While seeing the KIA-PDF

" Largely, the Shan-Man operation disappeared. And then, three routes were expected to penetrate the mainland. One is from Rakhine State, second from Kachin State and third from northern Shan State. There might be an idea that the Shan-Man operation might penetrate into the mainland together with these offensives and then revolutionary forces may move to Naypyidaw. Let's think of the second wave of Operation-1027. If there is a route from Mansi, it may be the first. How will the SAC respond to the offensive coming from Mansi? How will the SAC respond to these three offensives? As a result, how will the Myanmar government take seriously the interests of China and India? It is the challenge that has to be taken care of in Myanmar politics in early 2025." he said.

The KIA has captured the Kachin Special Region-1 where rare earth can be produced and has been launching offensives to Bhamo which is included in China's targeted project since 4th December 2024.

While battles were severely breaking out in Bhamo and Mansi Townships, the KIA delegate led by chairman of the KIA, General N'Ban La went to China and discussed the stability of border areas and stoppage of battles with Chinese authorities. And then, the KIA sped up its offensives starting from 6th January, 2025 and the KIA was able to capture Mansi Town on 8th January.

While seeing General N'Ban La

The Chinese pressure on the KIA was different from that on the MNDAA and the KIA had advantages, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a Myanmar-China affairs commentator, told CNI News.

" Although China summoned the KIA to discuss, the KIA went on fighting about what they would have to do. Although China put pressure on the KIA, in fact China advised. The KIA is better than MNDAA because all the regions the KIA captured not long ago are adjacent to the Chinese border. So, the Myanmar Tatmadaw can't carry out airstrikes. But Bhamo was badly damaged by airstrikes. Another advantage is that Kachin State shares borders with China and there are Jinghpaw (Kachin)'s self-administered districts in China." she said.

At present, the KIA/PDF joint forces have captured Mabein, Myohla, Lweje, Dodphone Yang, Myothit, Sinbo, Ingyanyan, Sumprabon, Sadon, Chipwi, Sawlaw, Panwa, Kan Pite Tee and Mansi in Kachin State and northern Shan State.

CNI News

10 January 2025

Military and political analysts are considering and discussing why the Arakan Army (AA) does not attack Kyaukphyu, Sittwe and Manaung in Rakhine State. 

There are 17 townships in Rakhine State and the AA has already captured 14 townships. However, the AA does not continue to attack the three remaining townships - Kyaukphyu, Sittwe and Manaung. Questions are also being raised as the AA's offensive moves towards the mainland.

According the statement released by the AA on 29th December 2024, foreign investments and projects would be protected by the AA. 

So, without attacking the three remaining towns, its offensives were moving towards the mainland, U Khun Sai taking part in the peace process told CNI News.

While seeing the AA

" The Kaladan River Project of India is located in Sittwe while the Chinese Project, in Kyaukphyu. Manaung also has a naval base. So, the AA doesn't have to attack these places urgently. The AA announced on 29th December that it will protect foreign investments. So, without attacking these towns, it's likely that the AA's offensive is moving towards the mainland." he said.

The AA was always ready to solve the domestic problems through the political means, said in the statement released by the AA. 

The AA's offer to discuss politically was not retreat from its objectives and it was a well-crafted publication that was in keeping with the times, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a Myanmar-China affairs analuyst, told CNI News.

While seeing a junction in Rakhine State

" Revolutionary forces don't have to fight continuously. They have to fight and rest because after a large battle, material or manpower has decreased. They need to take time to replenish these things. It takes a while to rebuild your spirit. You have to find a method for that. The AA might be put pressure as well to meet and discuss. Or the AA itself might need to do so." she said.

There are Chinese interests in Kyaukphyu and because Manaung is on an island, the AA could take time to attack it. However, the AA could attack Sittwe, said military and political analysts.

CNI News

10 January 2025

The Ministry of Energy is selling RON-68 gasoline at 2,200 kyats per liter in Naypyidaw, which is only good for the short term, pointed out businessmen and financial analysts. RON-68 is the gasoline produced by refining petroleum produced by domestic factories.

Most vehicles in Myanmar use only RON-92 or RON-92 and if RON-68 was used, engine reportedly could be affected in the long run. However, it would support for normal vehicles and be good in the short term, U Htay Aung Kyi, a banking expert, told CNI News.

" It supports more or less. It's fine for engines that are compatible with RON-68. I don't understand it very well because I'm not an engineer. I'm not sure if RON-68 can replace RON-92. Even if it can be used, might it affect the engine in the long run. But according to the current situation, it is supportive for normal vehicles in the short term." he said.

It is designated that RON-100 is the best gasoline and RON-88, the lowest. So, as RON-68 is lower than RON-88, people should make sure to know which kind of RON must be used for their engine.

While filling up the car with fuel oil

The Ministry of Energy that sells RON-68 should let the people know which kind of vehicle could use RON-68 at the fuel oil stations, U Aung Pyae Sone, a businessman, told CNI News.

" Motorcycles coming from China and Thailand are being currently used within the country. It would be convenient to use RON-88 or RON-90 for the China made motorcycles. But it is very difficult to regard RON-68 as a fuel oil. If it was used in generators, it would be necessary to weigh. If a lower qualified fuel is used one time or two, it won't be problematic. But if it is used three times and above, it can be problematic." he said.

RON-68 will be sold at the two shops in Mandalay, at a shop in Naypyidaw, at Hin Ngoke Pin fuel station in Taungoo and at Loilyn fuel station, reported the ministry.

It is also reported that efforts are underway to expand and open in other regions and states.

CNI News

10 January 2025

The National Unity Government (NUG) should be all reorganized and the change needed was to win the war and the change needed was to win the war, reforms were also needed said political analysts. 

Changes necessary to make the revolution succeed would be bravely conducted, said the Union PM of the NUG, Mahn Win Khine Than said in his New Year Speech on 1st January 2025.

" The best is to make a change in the whole NUG. The war has not been won. It doesn't have lots of money. The cabinet is too big. The cabinet members have taken their salaries to the full. When they go to a third country, the NUG supports them for their expenditure including those for their family members. That's enough. The necessary change is fighting to win the war." said U Kyi Myint, a political commentator.

The NUG would carry out more effective reforms and was ready to repair administrative and military weaknesses that emerged from weak leadership, said the PM of the NUG.

There were lessons to be learned and reforms to be made in 2024. Because of some administrative and military officials, there were acts that deviated from the revolutionary norms, and incidents that prioritized emotions and undermined understanding and unity, he admitted.

While Union PM of the NUG Mahn Win Khine Than was meeting with PDF comrades

The NUG had a lot of things to reform, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.

" The NUG needs to reform a lot. First of all, the NUG must expand its military alliance to the next level. Next, the NUG must better political corporations. The NUG emphasizes military operations while it must build an interim constitution firmly. In this way, the integration of ethnic armed organizations and Bamar armed forces will become more compact and solid. And the NUG needs to change into a revolutionary government, that is to say, the NUG doesn't need until 17 ministries." he said.

Although the NUG has over 300 battalions and over 200 defense force units, because they are not able to fight effectively, there is no organization type that meets the demands of practical struggle, pointed out military and political analysts.

EAOs and the PDFs have controlled 144 townships, released by the NUG's Ministry of Defense on 4th January 2025.

Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing urged all Myanmar citizens to carry out hand in hand with the spirit ' We are all Myanmar' in his written speech sent to the 77th Independence Day ceremony.

CNI News

9 January 2025

How much the SAC demand to solve the problem through political means and as long as the SAC asks armed groups to abandon weapons, political discussions would not be successful, pointed out military and political analysts. 

The SAC would not indulge and solve the armed terrorist claims and would meet and discuss with armed groups only when they abandon their armed policy, which Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing has said.

The chairman of the SAC asked EAOs to abandon weapons and build political parties to run the election;  as long as the chairman asked EAOs to abandon weapons, political discussions would not be successful, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.

While seeing Lt-Gen Ko Ko Oo from the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the MNDAA leaders

" What the SAC chairman wanted to say is that he would discuss politics, but the Tatmadaw won't accept armed pressure. What he means is that EAOs or revolutionary forces should run the election after abandoning weapons. So, political discussions won't be successful." he said.

The SAC chairman has urged armed groups to solve armed conflicts and disagreements in accordance with the law. However, because the Myanmar Tatmadaw did not solve the political problem through political means, urging EAOs to solve politically was not practical, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a Myanmar-China affairs commentator, told CNI News.

While seeing a comrade of the AA

" It's very sure that the SAC has not decided to meet and discuss. Next, they have no plan to withdraw. They will go on. So, they are trying to win legitimacy. For the time being, the SAC seems to deem that its exit is to hold the election. We have to ask the SAC if it solved the political problem through the political means. If the election was held, if they found something they didn't like, they would stage a coup d'état again." she said.

Three northern allies (TNLA,AA,MNDAA) and China met and discussed the peace process in December 2024 and the SAC delegates and northern allies met and discussed. 

However, they have not reached any firm agreements up to now and armed conflicts are still breaking out.