Shan IDPs in Myitkyina need help

CNI News

19 July 2025

Shan ethnic people in the IDP camps in Myitkyina need food, shelter, health and education assistance, the Shan Ethnic IDPs Assistance Committee told CNI News. 

The Shan ethnic IDPs there are mainly needing educational and health assistance, according to an official of the Shan ethnic IDP assistance committee.

While seeing a Shan ethnic IDP camp

“Currently, we have eight monasteries in Shwe Pyitha Ward including  Shan Dhamma Yon (community hall for religious purposes) in Khemathiri Ward,in Myitkyina. We have opened refugee camps for Shan ethnic groups there. In total, there are 11. There are about 4,000 IDPs. There are about 700 households. People from our Shan State have been fleeing battles since July, 2024. Due to the battles between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the KIA/PDF joint forces, the Shan ethnic IDPs arrived here. Most of them came from Tarlaw, Waingmaw, Bhamo,Inle and Pharkant. They mainly need iron corrugated sheets because it's the rainy season. I want the children of the IDPs to be educated. And they need healthcare as well." he said.

There are more than 100 IDP camps in Myitkyina Township, Kachin State and the Kachin State government said that it could not provide the IDPs with everything they needed, according to the IDPs.

Currently, battles are severely breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the KIA/PDF joint forces in Hparkant and Bhamo, Kachin State.

CNI News
19 July 2025

Military and political analysts are analyzing which areas the Myanmar military, which is currently launching offensives to some of the key areas of the lost territories, could prioritize and retake. 

The Myanmar Tatmadaw leaders would have a plan for how to regain control of which areas, and the current trajectory could prioritize border trade routes, Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies director U Thein Htun Oo told CNI News.

“Based on the current path, reopening border trade along the Pyin Oo Lwin and Lashio routes and later regaining control of some important areas will be part of the ongoing plan. There will be Chinese intervention. China shares a long border with Myanmar. And for trade to resume, stability and peace are essential. So, China has to intervene in the negotiations. It was the same with Thailand in the past. Regardless of who it cooperates with, the Myanmar Tatmadaw must guarantee peace and security within the country. Where will the Tatmadaw start to stabilize? Where will the first, second, and third priorities be? They will be included in the areas that are strategically determined." he said.

The Chinese government is arranging talks between the Northern Alliance and the SAC, as it wants the border to remain peaceful and trade routes to reopen as soon as possible. 

Negotiations between the Kokang Army (MNDAA) and the SAC were convenient, but talks with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) did not go well due to territorial demands, and they are scheduled to meet again in August.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw is currently conducting offensives mainly in the Ta’ang region and Bhamo, and battles could intensify in those areas, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs analyst, told CNI News. 

" The military council is launching offensives in Ta'ang region and Bhamo in the northern part of the country. Battles could intensify in these areas. I don't think they (SAC) can advance much in the south.I'm not sure whether they might control some territories around and in the Ta'ang region in the long run. "They have the advantage in airstrikes and weaponry," she said.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw announced that it had retaken control of Naung Cho town in northern Shan State, which had been occupied by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), on July 16, 2025, and that it had retaken control of Mobye town in Kayah State from the KNPP, KNDF, and PDF on July 6, 2025.

Military and political observers point out that the Myanmar Tatmadaw is currently using more air and drone attacks than ground forces in its offensive operations. 

The Myanmar Tatmadaw is launcing a defensive operation to prevent the KIA from taking control of Bhamo. Military and political observers have indicated that the capture of Naung Cho in northern Shan State could pave the way for gradual offensives against Kyaukme, Hsipaw, and Kutkai.

On the other hand, ethnic armed groups (EAOs) and People's  Defense Forces (PDFs) previously succeeded in capturing towns within days, but now have been unable to do so for months. 

Then, their fighting capabilities could decline until they could take years to capture towns, pointed out military and political analysts.

CNI News
19 July 2025

The Legal Aid Network (LAN) pointed out the reasons why the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) had to retreat from Naungcho and Taung Kham battles on July 18, 2025.

The reasons why the TNLA had to retreat from Naungcho and Taung Kham battles was (a) because ethnic alliances and PDFs' involvement in fighting with the TNLA  significantly decreased and (b) because the TNLA  designated the territories and towns it and its allies had captured as its own and established administration and invited long-term investments, pointed out the LAN.

In addition, (c) the TNLA did not achieve the effective support of the local people. And (d) the SAC not only used superior strength but also maximized its weapons capabilities.

Therefore, the Legal Aid Network pointed out that if the conditions in (a), (b), and (c) could be changed, adopted, and implemented as soon as possible politically, the condition (d) could be effectively eliminated.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw regained full control of TNLA-controlled Naungcho on July 16, 2025, and is continuing to pressure and attack TNLA-controlled areas such as Kyaukme, Mogok, Mong Ngor, and Hsipaw.

The TNLA has been holding talks with the Myanmar Tatmadaw in order to establish Palaung State after controlling areas such as Nam Kham, Man Tong, Nam San, Kutkai, Thibaw, Kyaukme, Naungcho, Mong Ngor, Namtu, Momeik, Mabein, and Mogok during Operation 1027.

“The TNLA has the right to implementation in order to achieve Palaung State they envision.  In implementing this, it needs to recognize the political rights and historical identities of other ethnic groups. The Ta'ang region is still legally part of Shan State. It is not yet recognized as a separate state. Therefore, the TNLA should consult with the main political and military forces in Shan State regarding the administration of all towns and villages it attacked and has seized (even temporarily),” said the LAN.

Locals say that Chinese businessmen are leaving Mogok, which is currently controlled by the TNLA. Similarly, fighting is also taking place between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the TNLA in Kyaukme Township.

CNI News

18 July 2025

The Myanmar Tatmadaw which has lost more than 90 towns has been carrying out more offensives since this mid-year, pointed out military and political analysts.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw announced that it had regained control of Naungcho town, which was occupied by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) in northern Shan State, on July 16, 2025, and that it had retaken control of Mobye Town, Kayah State, from the KNPP, KNDF, and PDF on July 6, 2025.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw, which has been in power for more than 70 years and has lost territories, would not retreat easily in military operations, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, an analyst on China-Myanmar affairs, told CNI News. 

" They (the Myanmar Tatmadaw) will try to regain control of the territories that thay have lost. They have many advantages. I don't think they will retreat easily. They have been ruling the country for more than 70 years. In comparison with us (revolutionary forces), they have lots of information and infrastructure. So, they can do it. We have not been fighting the military dictatorship just yesterday. The Spring Revolution has been taking about four or five years. In fact, we have been fighting since 7th July 1962. This time, this struggle is the most severe and it includes the entire public. But it's not easy to finish it quickly as we have expected." she said.

While Lt-Gen Naing Naing Oo had arrived in Naungcho after it had been retaken by the Tatmadaw

With elections set to begin by the end of this year,  the Myanmar Tatmadaw will likely retake lost territories as able as it can before the election, military and political analysts predict. 
They point out that the Myanmar Tatmadaw is currently using more air and drone attacks than ground forces in its offensive operations.

On July 16, the Myanmar Army sent several reinforcements to Naung Cho and retook the town through airstrikes and heavy artillery fire, the Myanmar Tatmadaw announced.

Since the Myanmar military is currently on the right track, it has regained military advantages, U Thein Tun Oo, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNI News. 

While seeing the TNLA

“The Tatmadaw is an organization that guarantees the perpetuation of the country, peace and stability, and all of that, so it will have to restore the country to its original state. Now, the Tatmadaw was carrying out its duties, which were necessary for peace and security. In the past, the military did not engage effectively in military operations, but rather relied more on negotiation and political means. At that time, the revolutionary groups prioritized the military, while the Tatmadaw prioritized politics. So, the Tatmadaw had to lose its camps and territories. But now, the Tatmadaw is using two ways; one is politics and the other, military. It's been on the right track. That's why it's regained military advantages." he said.

Military and political analysts have predicted that because the Tatmadaw could retake control of Naungcho, it could continue its offensive against Kyaukme Town and then continue its offensive against Thibaw Town.

Military and political observers point out that the Myanmar Tatmadaw is currently conducting a defensive operation to prevent the city of Bhamo from falling into the hands of the KIA. 

Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and People's Defense Forces (PDFs) were previously able to seize towns within days, but later even though they took months to do so, they have not succeed. Military and political analysts point out that the fighting capabilities of EAOs and PDFs may decline until they could take years for their town-seizing battles.

CNI News

18 July 2025

A delegation led by Lieutenant General Shrinjay Pratap Singh, Director General of Indian Defence Intelligence Agency and Deputy Chief of Integrated Defence Staff (Intelligence) met with Vice Chairman of the State Administration Council, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of Defense Services, Vice Senior General Soe Win at the meeting hall of Bayintnaung Villa in Nay Pyi Taw on 16th July.

They then discussed issues of cooperation for peace and stability in the border areas between the two countries, the rule of law, security and development, and the holding of free and fair multi-party democratic general elections in Myanmar.

The Indian intelligence chief arrived in Myanmar on July 13, 2025, following the Indian drone bombing of ULFA-I camps in the Naga Self-Administered Zone in Sagaing Region.

The attack resulted in the deaths of ULFA-I leaders, Lieutenant General Nayan Aasu (alias Nayan Madi), Brigadier General Lahun (alias Ganesh Aasu), and Colonel Pradish Aasu, along with two comrades. Therefore, ULFA-I announced on July 13, 2025 that it would retaliate against India.

The meeting between the Indian intelligence chief and SAC Vice Chairman Vice Senior General Soe Win was also attended by the SAC Joint Secretary and Chief of Military Security Affairs  Lt. Gen. Ye Win Oo

CNI News
17 July 2025

Town-seizing battles by ethnic armed groups and democratic armed groups lasted a few days only, now the battles have lasted until years, so the capability of these groups has declined, said U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator.

He  said the above in an exclusive interview with Burma News Network.

“In the past, our revolutionary groups were able to capture a camp in a week or 10 days. Now it takes months. Now that we possibly have to take years, it is very clear how slow our offensive speed has become. Now, it takes about 6 months to capture an important military base. That's not certain either. It hasn't been certain to be able to capture Kyaukphyu and Sittwe as well as Bhamo and Myitkyina. Meanwhile, Chin armed groups are also fighting each other due to differences of opinion among themselves. Apart from the Karen group's movement, the revolutionary struggle of ethnic groups across the country also seems to be stagnant. The situation of armed groups in the plains gets worse." said U Than Soe Naing.

Ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy forces have claimed to have captured more than 90 cities in Myanmar, but the Myanmar Tatmadaw is waging counter offensives now and gradually retaking them. The Myanmar Tatmadaw has captured Mobye Township in Kayah State and Naungcho Township in northern Shan State this month.

When the Tatmadaw has captured Mobye Town

Then, the Myanmar Tatmadaw is trying to capture Kyaukme, Hsipaw, and Theinni in northern Shan State, and is also trying to retake Thabeikkyin Township in Mandalay Region.

Amidst these situations, opposition individuals lash out at and demand the NUG, the PDF and the People's Administrative Groups to reform.

The Arakan Army (AA) has also failed to seize Kyaukphyu and Sittwe in Rakhine State. Similarly, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has also been unsuccessful in its offensives to capture Bhamo in Kachin State as well as Homalin and Banmauk in Sagaing Region.

On the other hand, the SAC is preparing to hold elections in 267 townships.

While seeing the SAC Chairman and political parties

U Than Soe Naing said, “If we can't launch a general offensive that can capture Naypyidaw before this election, there is a possibility that the military council will achieve the legitimacy after collaborating with international reactionary elements."

The SAC will hold elections in phases in December 2025 and January 2026, and state power would be handed over to the party that wins the election, said the SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.

CNI News

17 July 2025

There are speculations among military and political analysts about who will be the leader in the post-election changes in the government and military. 

Since the SAC has promised to hold elections in Myanmar in December 2025 and January 2026, it is assumed that elections will be held.

Local and international observers are closely watching and analyzing who will be the next head of the government and military after the election. 

Myanmar political analyst Dr. Aung Myo told CNI News that if the elections were held, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services could change the name of the position and take on the position of head  of the government.

While seeing Acting President, Commander in Chief of Defense Services, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing

“The election will definitely be held. It is the exit of the SAC, and it is the exit of the people as well. That is why the elections must be held. After the elections, a civilian government will come to power. Since a civilian government will come to power, the military will also have to be restructured. Then, the current leaders will have to be replaced by a younger group of people in the military. I can't say in detail how they will be replaced. Who will be head of head of the government that will come to power, to tell you the truth, will be the C in C. He might change the name of his position." said Dr. Aung Myo.

Currently, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing holds the positions of SAC Chairman, Caretaker Government Prime Minister, Acting President, and Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services.

Military and political observers have pointed out that if elections are held, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing could transition to the presidency in the new government, while the position of Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces could be handed over to someone he trusts.

While seeing those protesting against the SAC and the Myanmar Tatmadaw (Photo-Frontier Myanmar)

The  diplomatic circles local and abroad believe that Senior General Min Aung Hlaing could create a position above the army chief by forming a group called the Central Military Commission to continue leading the military in addition to the presidency. 

They point out that just as the National League for Democracy (NLD) government enacted the State Counsellor Law to create a position above President U Win Myint, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing could also create it.

The SAC chairman would surely hold elections because he wanted the presidency. Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs analyst, told CNI News.

"(Senior General) Min Aung Hlaing will surely hold elections because he wants to be president so much. But who will recognize the election? Malaysia and ASEAN have said directly that they don't recognize the election. He seems to think he can hold on to the presidency until he is about 80, like General Ne Win and General Than Shwe. We won't recognize elections at all. The public won't recognize them either." said Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw.

The upcoming election will be held under two systems: the first past the post (FPTP) which were previously used and the proportional representation (PR) system, , and the election will be held in 267 townships, according to the Union Election Commission (UEC).

CNI News
16 July 2025

The Myanmar Tatmadaw lost control of Naungcho Town, in northern Shan State in 2024, but it has regained control of the town on July 16, 2025, said locals.

The second wave of Operation-1027 was launched by the Ta'ang National Liberation Army in June, 2024 and TNLA, DPLA and MDY-PDF were able to control the town.

And then, joint forces led by the TNLA. Then, the joint forces led by the TNLA continued its offensive to capture Taung Kham near Pyin Oo Lwin, but the forces had to withdraw due to the Myanmar Tatmadaw's resistance.

While distributing food to children in some neighborhoods of Naungcho Town

Therefore, after capturing Taung Kham, the Myanmar Tatmadaw launched an offensive to regain control of Naungcho Town starting in February 2025, and was able to regain control of Naungcho Town on July 16.

In the offensive to regain control of Naung Cho, columns from  Division-11 and Division-55 took control of Taung Ward and Pahat Ward on July 13, 2025, and the market ward and downtown areas on July 15.

Then,  after the Myanmar Tatmadaw captured the police station, General Administration Office, and departmental buildings in Naungcho on July 16, it was able to takie control of the entire town, according to locals and people close to the military.

CNI News

16 July 2025

The SAC's implementation of the digital currency system may be an effort to reduce inflation and the printing of banknotes, businessman U Aung Pyae Sone told CNI News.

If SAC is to implement a digital currency system, it needs to improve internet connections, build a nationwide network, and strengthen the security of digital currency users, pointed out economic analysts.

Currently in Myanmar, digital money usage is not convenient due to poor internet connections; payment systems are being hacked and money is being lost; and there is a lack of enforcement against those who hack digital money users' money, and that digital money services are being charged irregularly without any set rates, the people pointed out.

Successive governments have tried to build a digital currency system, and the SAC may be trying to implement a digital currency system in order to reduce inflation, businessman U Aung Pyae Sone told CNI News.

While the MMQR system was being introduced

“Successive governments have been trying to implement this digital currency system. Our neighboring countries are also using digital currencies. But what SAC wants to do it at this time, I think, is two parts. As the first part, the SAC tries to move towards a progressive direction with the changes in the global monetary system.Secondly, the SAC has intended to reduce the printing of banknotes, I think. A sure thing is that the Central Bank's printing of new banknotes will be reduced and we will use numbers. In my opinion, the government want to control it," he said.

Economic analysts point out that it will be difficult for the digital currency system to succeed in Myanmar if only 15 percent of the country's population can use digital currency and 85 percent cannot.

Regarding the security of the digital currency system, Ko Zaw Min Naing, an agricultural and economic advisor, told CNI News that hacking by internal employees is more likely than hacking from outside, and that the security of the digital currency system needs to be taken care of.

While the SAC Chairman was being explained about the MMQR system

“Honestly, I think it’s more likely that relevant employees hack more than from those outside. Because there’s not much public sharing about these kinds of things. The public only has access to information about the most talked about things. In fact, bank staffs hack more than external hackers hack. Another thing is online Zha pian, which is related to the public awareness." he said.

Currently, online fraud gangs in Myanmar and internationally are committing online fraud through digital money systems, and some people are facing financial losses because those who hack digital money systems in collaboration with employees of relevant businesses.

Similarly, due to the ongoing fighting across Myanmar, internet access is unavailable and electricity is being cut off, making it very difficult to use digital currency in rural areas, except in major cities such as Yangon, Mandalay, and Nay Pyi Taw. The SAC launched MMQR, Myanmar's National QR Standard for digital payments, in February 2025.

The Myanmar QR (MMQR) system is a national-level digital payment QR code system.