CNI News

26 March 2025

The National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) leads and Peace Talk 2025 is being held from 24th to 26th March 2025 in Naypyidaw. 

The talk is attended by political parties, those involved in the peace process, political analysts, former members of Hluttaw, armed groups and news media and a total of over 100 people are discussing there.

On the first day of the talk that started on 24 March 2025, chairman of the NSPNC, Lieutenant General Yar Pyae delivered opening remarks; vice chairman of the Union Peacemaking Working Committee (UPWC), Union Minister (Retired), U Thein Zaw bid farewell and secretary of the NSPNC Lt-Gen Min Naing explained the aim of the Peace Talk 2025 and plans.

While the Peace Talk 2025 was being held

Daw Le' Le' Thein would discuss under the title ' Important aspect of economic development in the attempt for peace and development' on 25 March.

On the second day of the talk, Dr. Zaw Oo will discuss “Considering Related Sectors in Efforts to Achieve Economic Resilience During Conflict Reduction” and Dr. Nyo Nyo Thin, "Constitutional Amendment and Shaping Democracy and Federal Union".

On the third day, Lt-Gen Myint Soe (retd) will discuss the topic of “Elections, Security, Stability and Rule of Law” and U Ko Ko Gyi will discuss the same topic as well.

CNI News

25 March 2025

Rakhine people still have no ability to accept the reentry of the Muslim refugees from Bangladesh when it is difficult to rebuild Rakhine State, U Myo Kyaw from the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA), told CNI News.

The Arakan Army's revolution still is not finished; even if it can control all the territories in Rakhine State, it will be difficult for the AA to implement the processes it has to, so in a situation like that, asking the AA to take responsibility to accept the Muslim refugees won't be easy, he said.

" The AA hasn't finish this revolution up to now. It has to capture Sittwe, Kyauk Phyu and Manaung. If it can control the entire Rakhine State, it has to stabilize, build administrative mechanism systematically, carry out for the people's livelihood, healthcare, education and so on. There will be difficulties. If international community help, it might be convenient. And if the AA even gained its sovereignty, which countries will provide assistance to it? When there are difficulties to build Rakhine State, if it is asked to take responsibility to make the refugees re-enter, I don't believe Rekhine people have the ability to accept the re-entry of the refugees." said U Myo Kyaw.

While seeing Muslim refugees and the UN Secretary General

The UN Secretary General Guterres visited the Cox's Bazaar Refugee Camp together with head of the Bangladeshi Government, Mohammed Yunus last week. During the trip, Yunus said the Muslim refugees would be sent back to Rakhine State.

He believed that it was necessary to discuss with the AA to enable the refugees to come back to Rakhine State, said the US Secretary General Guterres on 15 March. 

However, to enable the refugees come back to Rakhine State depended on the Myanmar government and local authorities, said Tohib Hussain, advisor for the Bangladeshi  Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

It was necessary to reach an agreement after discussing among organizations concerned to enable the refugees come back to Rakhine State, U Khun Sai who is taking part in the peace process, told CNI News.

" Even though there was an agreement with the SAC, if there was not an agreement with the AA, the repatriation of the refugees would not be implemented. In my opinion,  if the repatriation of refugees is related to human rights and humanitarian reasons, the AA could not refuse. It is necessary to reach an agreement among the AA, the SAC, Bangladesh and the refugees after they discuss. All the stakeholders will need to participate, I think.”he said.

Due to the battles that broke out in Rakhine State in 2017, the number of Muslim refugees who fled to Bangladesh was just less than one million, reported the Myanmar government. 

However, the number of Muslim refugees was 1.2 million, reported the UN.

CNI News

24 March 2025

Foreign countries' urge to discuss among revolutionary organizations within Myanmar could not work, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.

Neighboring countries needed to support federal processes for the peace of Myanmar and enable revolutionary organizations to discuss among them, said country director of Myanmar, of the Forum of Federations, U Win Min.

He said the above when he discussed on the second day of the discussions on Myanmar issues that was conducted at the Thai parliament on 22nd and 23rd March, 2025. Although the foreign countries' urge to discuss among revolutionary organizations should be welcomed, it could not work in practice, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator told CNI News.

" In my opinion, foreign countries' urge to discuss among revolutionary organizations must be welcomed. But I don't believe it will work because even organizations that stand together locally cannot speak to each other. The fact that foreign countries are encouraging revolutionary organizations to do this won't become anything in practice. If armed organizations want to basically solve small conflicts, it's likely after the military council is overthrown. However, the issue has not yet escalated to armed conflict because central committees from both sides still understand one another." he said.

While seeing the KIA-PDF

EAOs' territorial dominions  have become more spacious after 2021 when political change started. At the same time, territorial disputes could arise, some pointed out.

There may be conflicts  among the revolutionary organizations in the future because of the different interests, said Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs commentator, told CNI News.
" There may be conflicts among EAOs in the future because of different interests. There may be conflicts in the mainland as well. We should be careful that revolution has been so long because revolutionary organizations still are not united and because of these conflicts. The military council seems to want to use it. But if a conflict emerges, armed groups don't solve the problem with weapons as soon as they can but they solve it with negotiation. It's the next step forward in revolution. In this way, our revolution can be successful." she said.

Currently in Shan State, there are territorial disputes between the KIA and the TNLA, between the KIA and the MNDAA, between the TNLA and the SSPP, between the RCSS and the SSPP, between the PNO and the PNLO.

In the same way, in Tanintharyi Region and Karen State, there are territorial disputes between the NMSP and the KNU, between the KNU and the KTLA.

CNI News
24 March 2025

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing will attend the Summit of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) that will be held in Bangkok, Thailand, reported Thai PBS. 

Thailand will host the BIMSTEC summit from 3rd to 4th April, 2025 and Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn will serve as the chairman.

The summit will be attended by leaders from member countries - India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal, and Thailand. The BIMSTEC was established in Bangkok in 1997.

The BIMSTEC was formed with the aim of deepening economic cooperation among countries bordering the Bay of Bengal.

The BIMSTEC serves as a bridge between South Asia and Southeast Asia, promoting economic, social, and cultural ties within the region.

CNI News

24 March 2025

That Bangladesh government had arrested leader of the ARSA, a terrorist group, and nine other suspected members appeared to have been systematically, U Myo Kyaw from the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA) told CNI News.

The arrested persons were arrested on March 17 for illegally entering Bangladesh and engaging in terrorist activities, reported news agencies based in Bangladesh.

ASRA has been active for almost 10 years, but that the arrests were conducted not very long ago is questionable. Moreover, because the arrests took place only after the UN Secretary General arrived in Bangladesh, it was unlikely that it was a normal coincidence, said U Myo Kyaw.

" Because they were arrested not very long ago, it can't be a normal coincidence. First, Sheikh Hasina had to flee. And then, Yunus who is supported by the western countries came to power. A few days ago, the UN secretary general arrived in Muslim refugee camps in Bangladesh when the refugees demonstrated that they wanted to go back to their original places. These things appear to have been systematically prepared. The UN Secretary General also said that it was necessary to talk with the AA. In other words, it's nothing short of recognizing the AA. Are these things coincident or prepared systematically. People who did these things know more." he said.

While seeing the UN Secretary General and Yunus

Leader of the ARSA was suspected that he ordered his followers to kill a well-known Muslim community leader from the Kutupalong Refugee Camp in Bangladesh and that he took part in killing a Bangladesh government official, reported by Bangladesh news agencies.

The ARSA was formed in 2016 and it is a terrorist organization that has mainly active in Maungdaw Township, northern Rakhine State. It is a terrorist organization that has been systematically formed. It was able to prepare for the issue of Muslim refugees who had to flee during the battles in 2017, U Myo Kyaw from the UNA.

" In my opinion, leaders of the ARSA systematically formed their organization. They planned the mass exodus of Muslims from Rakhine State, I think because about 700,000 migrated to Bangladesh in a short time. They were not able to migrate without systematic preparations. The another thing is that the governments that ruled this region through ages are not without responsibility for this region has been the scene of ethnic conflict for generations." he said.

While seeing leaders of the AA

Mohammed Yunus, head of the Bangladesh government, has said that Muslim refugees in Bangladesh will be sent back to their native place, Rakhine State in 2026.

It was necessary to discuss with the AA to enable Muslim refugees to go back to their native place, Rakhine State, said the UN Secretary General during his trip to Bangladesh. However, there are also reviews that the repatriation of Muslims is not an easy matter.

CNI News

24 March 2025

Myanmar people only must resolve the armed and political conflicts that were breaking out in Myanmar and foreign aid was just peripheral, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs commentator, told CNI News.

ASEAN has a chance to tackle the crisis that is getting worse; it urgently needs to take exact and decisive actions, reported the National Unity Government (NUG) on 19 March 2025.

Myanmar people must judge political and revolutionary situations correctly and because the foreign aid was just peripheral, it would not be able to decide, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs commentator, told CNI News.

" Our revolution must rely on our people. If we rely on ASEAN, it would be just peripheral because only if all the ten countries agree, can they make a decision. Other countries have problems of their own as well. We have to analyse political and revolutionary situations. We have to think and decide for ourselves what we should do next. Foreign aid is just peripheral. I will never be able to make a decision. Domestic strength only can decide. Local revolutionary force can decide." she said.

While seeing Chinese Special Envoy Deng Xijun and the SAC Chairman

Although she said that foreign assistance was just peripheral, China has been deeply involved in Myanmar's domestic affairs, some pointed out. With China's brokered engagement, the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the Kokang force (MNDAA) reached a temporary ceasefire and there were discussions between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the TNLA.

In the same way, with China's brokered engagement, the AA and the SAC would meet and discuss, according to those close to both sides. China would cooperate with the SAC to be able to hold elections while Russia and Belarus supported holding elections and would send their delegates to Myanmar to study elections, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

There are pro-China members and pro-American members in ASEAN, so there are no clear-cut decisions, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.

While seeing the ASEAN delegates

" Some members of the ASEAN are pro-China and others, pro-American. So, they have no clear-cut decisions. Although the ASEAN has laid down five point consent regarding Myanmar, the military council never abided by the consent. If the military council complies with it, the SAC has no problem with it. ASEAN has no mechanism as well to take action against the SAC. So, ASEAN hasn't resolved the Myanmar problem in practice for over four years." he said.

The National Unity Government (NUG) has announced that now is the time to take decisive action to restore justice, peace, and dignity to every citizen of Myanmar.

Although internal conflicts can only be resolved by the domestic revolutionary forces, conflicts also exist due to the different interests among the revolutionary forces. point out military and political analysts.

CNI News

24 March 2025

Although head of the Bangladesh government, Muhammad Yunus said that Muslim refugees would be sent back to Rakhine State in 2026, it was impossible in practice, political commentators told CNI News.

He would make an attempt to ensure to ensure that Muslim refugees could celebrate next year's Ramadan Festival in their native places in Rakhine State, said Mohammed Yunus during a visit to the Cox's Bazar refugee camp in Bangladesh with UN Secretary-General Guterres on 14 March 2025.

Although there might be discussions to repatriate Muslim refugees, it would not be easy to do so, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs commentator told CNI News.

While seeing Muslim refugees

"It seems they understand that this issue needs to be resolved. I can't say whether it's easy or not to implement what he said. Bangladesh is really worried about the Rohingya issue. But it's impossible to accept the refugees at once. AA also said it would discuss this as a temporary solution. It's not easy for the AA to really accept the refugees. Even the people in Rakhine State still are finding it difficult to resolve their livelihood problem." she said.

He believed that It was necessary to discuss the repatriation of Muslim refugees in Bangladesh with the Arakan Army (AA), said the UN Secretary General Guterres on March 15, 2025.

After that, leader of the ARSA and nine other suspected members were arrested by the Bangladesh government, reported the news agencies based in Bangladesh on 18 March 2025.

To send Muslim refugees back to Rakhine State during 2026 might be the Bangladesh's expectation; if Rakhine State was free from the Myanmar Tatmadaw in 2026, the AA could carry out the repatriation of Muslim refugees, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.

While seeing leaders of the AA

" This is the Bangladesh's expectation. If Rakhine State is free from the troops of the military council in 2026, the AA may carry out the repatriation of Rohingya refugees. It is likely that Yunus said, anticipating Rakhine State will be free from the Myanmar Tatmadaw in 2026. Because Bangladesh considered that it should restrict the movement of the ARSA, it arrested the leader of the ARSA. In cooperation with the international community, the AA could plan the repatriation of the refugees in 2026." he said.

The Myanmar government and local authorities had a lot to do to ensure that Muslim refugees could return home with dignity, said Mr. Md. Touhid Hossain, advisor for Foreign Affairs of Bangladesh government.

Because of battles that broke out during 2017, about 1.2 Muslim people fled to Bangladesh and they have been staying in Bangladesh as refugees, according to news reports.

However, the Myanmar government has said the number of refugees was less than 1.2 million.

CNI News

22 March 2025

Peace talk called Peace Talk 2025 that is led by the National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) reportedly will be held in Naypyidaw from 24th to 26th March 2025.

The peace talk would be divided into two groups and different topics would be discussed. Group-1 reportedly would discuss politics and security sectors and Group-2, economy and the state development sectors.

Because the talk probably would be widely held, a good prospect for the peace of Myanmar would arise,  vice chairman of the National Democratic Force Party told CNI News.

" Many people have been invited to the talk. Myanmar's peace process and prospects as well as sectors related to economic resilience during reducing conflicts will be widely discussed. People from the business and security sectors will participate in the discussion. And delegates from EAOs will discuss in the talk as well. After this talk, the Myanmar peace process has potential to improve." he said.

While the NSPNC and political parties were discussing

Members of the National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC), former senior officials from the Tatmadaw, delegates from the Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee (JMC), delegates from EAOs, political parties, those involved in the peace process, director generals from ministries and observers reportedly will participate in the talk. 

Through these discussions, the peace process in Myanmar could move in a positive direction, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP) Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News.

"This meeting could help the peace process in Myanmar move in a positive direction. I think they will discuss peace in Myanmar, current political developments, the need for stability, the election, the government that will come into power after the election, the economy, social, and the civil war. The public probably will be given an answer after the talk. The results gained from this talk may be presented to the government and it may figure out the shapes that will go forward because the SAC has already announced that elections will be held in December 2025 or January 2026. After elections, a power transfer will arise. So, before these processes, the talk could produce an answer to the public and the government." he said.

While Myanmar delegates and Indian scholars were discussing federalism and constitutional issues at the India Centre on 18 March 2025

The political parties said the talks that would be held in Nay Pyi Taw are aimed at achieving a domestic political settlement before the election, national reconciliation, participating in a peaceful election, working together in accordance with the constitution, and making good plans for the country's future.

Battles are severely breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and resistance groups across the country. There were nearly 20 million people who needed humanitarian aid; One billion US dollars would be needed for the humanitarian aid, according to the UNOCHA.

Meanwhile, the SAC Chairman Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing has requested local ethnic people to urge their EAOs to find an answer through political means.

CNI News

22 March 2025

It could not be convenient for the State Administration Council if it held dialogues with ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) under a single title, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI New. 

The political goal of the National Unity Government (NUG/PDF) is different from that of EAOs.

Although it was possible if a dialogue was held under the title of ceasefire, follow-up negotiations could be more complicated, said U Thein Tun Oo.

While seeing leaders of armed organizations and the SAC Chairman

"What title will we discuss under? Shall we discuss under the title of peace? If you look at what are happening currently, the reason why the NUG and PDFs have arisen is that they believe the Myanmar Tatmadaw has unjustly maintained power. But the political goal of EAOs is different from that of the NUG/PDFs. Under what title they will discuss depends on the attitude  of organizations concerned. In fact, although it is possible if they discuss under the title of ceasefire, follow-up negotiations could be more complicated. Because the goals of each organization are different from those of other organizations, separate discussions will be needed, I think." he said.

According to the 2008 constitution, the SAC could solve Myanmar's political problem through holding elections and at the same time, it could use the dialogue as well, some considered.

While seeing the NUG-PDF

While there were instabilities in the entire country, dialogues and peace talks were just few, spokesperson of the 7 EAO Alliance, Col. Saw Kyaw Nyunt told CNI News.

" For the time being, the war framework is too spacious and the political framework is too narrow. While there are instabilities in the entire country, political dialogues and peace talks are just few." he said.

After the Myanmar Tatmadaw took power in 2021, armed conflicts have expanded more. And then,  in 2023 and 2024, territorial dominance of EAOs became bigger.

The SAC Chairman reportedly has planned to hold elections in December 2025 or January 2026.

While there were instabilities across the country, if elections were held, elections could be held in one third of all the townships only, pointed out political commentators.