CNI News

1 November 2025

Political analyst Dr. Aung Myo told CNI News Agency that a Military Service Exemption Tax Bill has been drafted and submitted to the relevant authorities for people in Myanmar who do not wish to serve in the military for various reasons.

The People's Military Service Law was enacted on February 10, 2024, with the aim of ensuring national defense and security duties, and currently, the 17th batch of public military service training is underway.

Dr. Aung Myo, a political analyst, told CNI News Agency that a draft law titled the "Exemption Tax from Serving Public Military Service" has already been prepared, and if the State approves this bill, it will be able to salvage the current situation.

He said "It's my idea. I have drafted a bill called the 'Military service exemption tax,' which is an exemption tax from serving in the public military service. I wrote it and asked for assistance from Captain Khin Maung Sint of the Veterans' Organization to submit the veteran's sentiment to the State. However, the law has not been enacted yet. If it is approved, and people who do not want to serve in the military for various reasons can gain exemption by paying a tax, then the young people, skilled workers, and professionals who have left the country will return. When they return, the country's economy will improve, and the population will increase. Essentially, we need to release that law as a political exit strategy and maintain control."

Military and political observers point out that due to the Military Service Law in Myanmar, many young people are leaving the country, and as a result of being called up for military service, the working-age youth population is decreasing.

Furthermore, military and political observers point out that along with the population decrease, the country is facing conditions such as labor shortages, slowing production, and the dangers associated with a declining population.

Currently, intense fighting is occurring between the Myanmar Armed Forces and armed groups, leading both sides to intensify efforts to call up or arrest young people for military service.

Consequently, political parties and political analysts are attempting various methods to stop the recruitment efforts of the armed organizations.

CNI News
1 November 2025

The hopes of ethnic minorities in Myanmar have yet to be realized, along with the armed conflicts that have persisted since the country gained independence, said U Ko Ko Gyi, Chairman of the People's Party (PP), to CNI News Agency.

Non-Bamar ethnic groups have been waging armed resistance, demanding self-determination and self-administration, equal rights for ethnic minorities, the right to determine their own destiny, the establishment of a federal union, and the flourishing of a democratic system.

U Ko Ko Gyi, Chairman of the People's Party (PP), told CNI News Agency that continuing with the armed approach only leads to the suffering of unarmed civilians and the casualties and destruction of armed groups, with no political outcome.

He said, "The armed conflict has emerged alongside independence, and until now, the hopes that ethnic minorities hold have not been realized. In reality, the people have suffered death, displacement, flight, and hiding due to the conflict for nearly 80 years. Therefore, continuing with the armed approach only causes suffering to the unarmed civilians. Other than the armed groups being destroyed and suffering casualties, I see no political outcome."

While seeing a leader of the Tatmadaw and ethnic minorities

Military and political analysts point out that ethnic groups are federalists and that federalism does not mean secession from the Union. They stress that self-determination and self-administration are essential, and therefore, Section 261, concerning the appointment of the Chief Minister, is a provision that must be amended.

The peace of Myanmar is not solely the concern of the armed groups' role, but also involves the roles of neighboring countries, stated U Ko Ko Gyi, Chairman of the People's Party (PP).

Ethnic armed groups and political parties

He explained, "We must strive for all domestic forces to achieve understanding and agreement regarding our armed conflict. However, at the same time, economic issues and interests related to the armed conflict have also become involved. With their involvement, the role of our neighboring countries also comes into play. Therefore, the peace of our country is not just the responsibility of the armed forces; we must work to ensure that the role of neighboring countries involved, including ASEAN, for example, and the role of regional countries are also integrated, leading to broad-based negotiations."

Despite the presence of many armed organizations in Myanmar, hundreds more armed groups emerged after the political landscape changed on February 1, 2021.

These armed organizations have differing demands and stances from one another.

CNI News

1 November 2025

The population within Myanmar has been gradually declining due to ongoing national instability, according to political analyst U Htet Aung Kyaw, who spoke to CNI News.

Commander-in-Chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing stated on October 27, during the release ceremony of the 2024 Population and Housing Census, that the country’s population had slightly decreased for the first time in a decade.

U Htet Aung Kyaw explained that although Myanmar has a large number of young people who are capable of contributing productively to the nation, political instability and national unrest have caused many of them to migrate abroad for work or education—leading to a decrease in population.

 Youths seen at the census ceremony on October 27, 2025

He said: “When the country is at a stage where it could progress, political crises arise. As a result, young people who could have contributed to national development through industries are instead drawn into armed conflicts. We’ve lost a great number of our human resources that way. Moreover, because many people are worried about these situations and find it difficult to stay in the country, they go abroad for employment or education. That’s why the population has declined. During the very time when we should be harnessing our advantages, political turmoil has weakened us. It’s truly unfortunate for the nation.”

Although Myanmar is geopolitically significant, its population density remains low compared to neighboring countries. According to official data, this is the first population decline in ten years, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said.

U Htet Aung Kyaw emphasized that national institutions must make collective efforts to bring back young people from abroad to contribute to the country’s growth and development.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing seen at the census ceremony on October 27, 2025.

“Those who leave the country don’t do so because they no longer love their homeland. It’s simply because they are facing many difficulties right now. When they go abroad, it’s not that they’re living idly—those who work are working hard, and those who study are pursuing their education. Therefore, if our young people gain experience and knowledge overseas, they could contribute significantly if we create opportunities for them to return and participate in national development. If we fail to do so, the situation will only worsen. Everyone needs to work together to make this possible.”, he added.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing also warned that neglecting the youth could lead to a “Demographic Burden” and eventually to a “Demographic Disaster”—a severe population decline that could threaten national stability and peace.

CNI News

31 October 2025

If the Arakan Army (AA) makes any mistakes or takes a wrong turn in its governance and territorial control efforts in northern Rakhine State, it will not be able to contain the growing strength of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), said U Thein Tun Oo, Executive Director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies, in an interview with CNI News.

He said, “How many people does ARSA actually have on the ground? What are their objectives? How far do they intend to go? When the AA gains control over territory, will it truly be able to govern effectively? These are issues that must be carefully analyzed based on available data. If the AA’s operations go in the wrong direction or if any mistakes occur, I don’t think they will be able to stop ARSA’s growing influence — that’s quite clear. When numerous conflicts occur on the ground but there is no well-structured mechanism to resolve them, major problems will inevitably follow. Especially, if things continue this way, even the AA itself could eventually face difficulties living and operating in those areas under increasingly tense conditions,” he said.

A junction in Rakhine State

Currently, in the northern Rakhine towns under AA control — Maungdaw, Buthidaung, and Rathedaung — attacks by the Muslim armed group ARSA have expanded significantly throughout 2025.

Between May and October 2025, around 50 civilians were killed in shootings and executions carried out by ARSA, according to local Rakhine authorities.

Military and political analysts report that ARSA’s activities in Rakhine State have increased compared to previous years and that the group primarily targets civilians.

According to U Myo Kyaw from the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA), ARSA’s growing strength could put serious pressure on Rakhine’s political landscape, as it draws support and resources from extremist sympathizers around the world.

ARSA troops

He said, “The influence on Rakhine politics from groups like ARSA and ARSO doesn’t come solely from inside Myanmar. Behind them are global networks of extremist elements — people who are driven by religious extremism and territorial ambitions. If such forces become involved, it could create immense pressure on Rakhine’s politics. However, both the Rakhine people and the Muslims living in Rakhine must work together to present the true situation and historical background to the international community, especially to the United Nations and other world nations. The world is not unaware of what’s happening — but sometimes, due to geopolitical interests or strategic needs, powerful countries portray situations in a certain way. Small nations like ours must be careful not to become mere pawns in the global geopolitical chessboard,” he said.

Analysts also suggest that ARSA and ARSO have been receiving significant support from the Bangladesh Border Guard (BGB) and are infiltrating Rakhine’s Maungdaw District via the Naf River and Mayu Mountain Range routes.

At present, the AA has announced that it is conducting clearance operations against ARSA and ARSO forces in northern Rakhine State.

CNI News

31 October 2025

As Myanmar’s civil war continues to drag on, achieving peace will only become more distant, said Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), to CNI News.

He explained that if all armed groups put the nation’s interests first and learn lessons from the past, peace could still be attainable.

Political analysts also noted that within ongoing peace processes, there are many differing views, thoughts, and approaches being taken.

Sai Htay Aung emphasized that “the longer the civil war lasts, the harder it will be to achieve peace. But if we can learn lessons from past experiences, peace can be achieved more quickly. Right now, the number of armed groups keeps increasing. We need to reflect on why that is happening. When one side uses the force of arms to dominate, others respond by taking up arms themselves — and that cycle keeps multiplying the number of armed groups. Every new armed group formed adds another burden on the people.

Those who attended the NCA anniversary ceremony

For example, if we look at the KIA and SNA — the KIA used armed force and oppressed the Shan majority population. When that happened, and cooperation with the Tatmadaw (Myanmar military) was ineffective, another armed group — the SNA — was formed to counter them. That’s why I say the longer the civil war goes on, the further peace will be. But if all armed groups act selflessly, put the nation first, and learn from the past, peace can be achieved sooner,” said.

Armed conflicts in Myanmar have existed since the country’s independence in 1948 and continue to this day.

Efforts to achieve peace have taken many forms — exchanging arms for peace, arms for economic gains, and even building peace while keeping arms.

Outside the electoral process, armed conflicts continue to persist. However, U Ko Ko Gyi, Chairman of the People’s Party (PP), told CNI News that once ethnic representatives enter parliament after the election, peace processes could become more representative.

“Elections cannot solve all problems politically, but they can open the path to solutions. Armed struggle has proven ineffective — past experiences have shown that.

Those who attended the NCA anniversary ceremony

In previous elections, armed conflicts continued outside the electoral system. Therefore, we must continue engaging in dialogue with armed forces, review the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), and work to revitalize it. Elections also bring political representation, which makes dialogue more inclusive and stronger.Currently, the Tatmadaw leads and makes decisions in the peace process. After the election, ethnic representatives and democratic forces will also participate, making peace efforts broader and more inclusive,” he said.

Myanmar’s first phase of the general election is scheduled for December 28, 2025, across 102 townships. The second phase will be held in January 2026, covering another 100 townships.

However, analysts note that public trust and interest in the upcoming election are low, as previous election results were annulled on grounds of alleged voter list disputes.

Currently, 10 armed groups have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), but CNF, ABSDF, and KNU have withdrawn, effectively rendering the agreement void.
Fighting continues between the Myanmar military and these former NCA signatories, as well as with non-signatories such as the KIA, TNLA, AA, and MNDAA.

Additionally, since the military coup on February 1, 2021, clashes have erupted with hundreds of newly formed People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) nationwide.

CNI News

30 October 2025

The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) announced on October 29, 2025, that its troops will withdraw from Mogok and Momauk towns following the signing of a bilateral ceasefire agreement.

The talks were held in Kyukok (Pansai) from October 27 to 28, 2025, under the mediation of China. Delegations were led by Lieutenant General Ko Ko Oo from the Myanmar military and Deputy Commander-in-Chief Tar Jock Jar from the TNLA.

This was the ninth round of talks between the two sides, and they reached an agreement to enforce the ceasefire starting from October 29, 2025.

The TNLA stated “Through the mediation and coordination of the Chinese Special Envoy, both sides were able to hold reciprocal discussions and negotiations. According to the agreed terms, TNLA forces will withdraw from Mogok and Momauk townships within the designated period, while the Myanmar military will refrain from conducting airstrikes and offensive operations in TNLA-controlled areas. Starting from October 29, 2025, both sides have agreed to halt their troops at their current positions and signed the bilateral ceasefire agreement.”

However, TNLA did not specify the exact timeline or duration for the complete withdrawal from Mogok and Momauk.

The TNLA had previously captured 12 townships during its 1027 military offensive. Later, beginning in June–July 2025, the Myanmar military retook control of several areas including Naungcho, Kyaukme, and Hsipaw.

CNI News

30 October 2025

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, stated that neglecting young people could lead to a Demographic Burden and a decrease in stability and peace, and in the worst-case scenario, it could result in a Demographic Disaster (the danger of population decline).

He made this statement at the ceremony in Nay Pyi Taw on October 27, 2025, for the release of the Union Report on the 2024 Population and Housing Census.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said, "In many countries around the world, when young people are nurtured, fostered, and provided with opportunities and hopes, they become the driving force for the country's development. By investing beneficially in our youth today, we can seize the benefits of the Demographic Dividend in the future. Otherwise, if our youth are neglected, it could lead to a Demographic Burden and a decrease in stability and peace, and in the worst-case scenario, a Demographic Disaster (the danger of population decline)."

Myanmar youths

Therefore, he stressed the need to formulate and adopt population policies appropriate for the country to achieve a desirable and suitable population that aligns with Myanmar's land, water, and natural resources. He added that preparations must be made by looking ahead for a generation, emphasizing that "You cannot dig a well now and expect to drink clear water immediately."

According to the 2024 census data, the country's population has decreased slightly for the first time in decades. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said this is due to a decline in the birth rate, high migration rates, and changes in family patterns, which present both a challenge and an opportunity.

He noted that outward migration depends on the country's socio-economic conditions, political stability, domestic employment opportunities, and the economic development of neighboring countries. Therefore, long-term development plans must be established and implemented to manage and guide the situation.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing seen at a census ceremony

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing stated, "Although outward migration is high among our country’s youth, as a result of a previously high birth rate, the number of young, working-age people is still large. In other words, we are still in a period where we can reap the Demographic Bonus, also known as the Demographic Dividend. Therefore, it is crucial to properly and effectively manage these young people to benefit national development efforts before the period for receiving the Demographic Dividend runs out."

In Myanmar, censuses were conducted eight times between 1872 and 1941 before independence. Subsequently, censuses were conducted in 1973, 1983, 2014, and 2024.

CNI News

30 October 2025

Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News Agency that the United Wa State Army (UWSA) should be granted State status, upgrading it from the current "Wa" Self-Administered Division.

Under the 2008 Constitution, six townships in Shan State—Hopang, Mongmao, Panwai, Narphan, Matman, and Pangkham (Panghsang)—are organized into two districts and designated as the "Wa" Self-Administered Division.

At a peace workshop held on October 17, Lieutenant General Yar Pyae, Chairman of the National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC), stated that if the UWSA desires a "Wa" State under the 2008 Constitution, they should contest the election and make their demand in the Hluttaw (Parliament).

Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the TNDP, told CNI News Agency that the UWSA should be granted the requested State status because the "Wa" armed group possesses the necessary characteristics and mechanisms of a State. However, he noted that achieving Statehood would require multiple rounds of discussion in the Hluttaw.

The United Wa State Party

He stated, "Why? Because the 'Wa' was not included in the Shan Federation State before independence. It was only incorporated into Shan State after independence. At that time, perhaps because the 'Wa' region was extremely underdeveloped, or perhaps to avoid providing support, I can't say for sure, but the 'Wa' area was kept separate until Myanmar gained independence. Regarding the development of the 'Wa' region, it started to develop when the Communist Party of Burma (CPB) was defeated in the Bago Yoma mountain range and established its Northeast headquarters in Shan State. Therefore, now that the 'Wa' is asking for a State, and since it already possesses all the features and mechanisms that constitute a State, I believe that if the matter is discussed and negotiated within the Hluttaw, they can achieve it without bloodshed. Why? Because the Union government, or rather, the participants of the 21st Century Panglong, have agreed to build a Union based on democracy and a federal system. Given the federal system, I would like to say that the 'Wa' deserves to be granted State status by incorporating a framework for a new State into the Constitution."

If the UWSA wishes to obtain State status, it would only receive the level of State status prescribed by the 2008 Constitution.

Military and political analysts point out that because the 2008 Constitution centralizes executive, judicial, and legislative powers under the central government, the UWSA, which currently exercises its own administrative, judicial, and legislative powers, is already operating beyond the provisions of the 2008 Constitution.

The "Wa" armed group, which fought alongside the CPB, seized power from the CPB on April 17, 1989, established the United Wa State Party (UWSP), and subsequently agreed to a ceasefire with the government.

The armed wing of the UWSP is the UWSA, which is currently the strongest armed group among all domestic armed groups.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing who is ruling Myanmar

U Khun Sai, a person involved in the peace process, told CNI News Agency that it must not be forgotten that the issue of granting the "Wa" the requested State status is not merely an affair of Shan State, but a matter for the entire Union.

He said, "The privileges currently enjoyed by the 'Wa,' and those enjoyed by Mongla, are many times greater than what Shan State currently has. Because they enjoy significantly greater privileges, whether they can accept a reduction or not is something the Shan people need to discuss among themselves. It is also something that needs to be discussed with all the nationalities across the entire Union, outside of Shan State. Without such a discussion, if the current status quo is maintained, other ethnic groups within Shan State will start to demand, 'We want to be like the Wa too.' Similarly, people in other States and Regions across the Union will also demand, 'We want to be like the Wa.' If this happens, how will all the people of the Union handle this situation? We need to collectively consider these issues. Therefore, we must not forget that the 'Wa's' current demand is not just an issue for Shan State; it is an issue for the entire Union."

Currently, the administrative, legislative, and judicial situations in the areas controlled by the UWSA are not under the control of the central government but are exclusively under the control of the UWSA.

Although the UWSA signed a Union-level ceasefire agreement with the government, it did not sign the NCA. Following the political change in 2021, the UWSA met and discussed with the Tatmadaw in response to its peace invitation, and UWSA delegations have also participated in peace forums.

CNI New

30 October 2025

There are questions being raised about the meaning of the definition of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) plus the additional NCA+, which is being discussed between the Myanmar Military (Tatmadaw) and ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) for the cessation of armed conflict in Myanmar.

Political analysts suggest that NCA+ could mean extending an invitation to organizations that should rightfully participate in political dialogues, even if they have not yet signed the NCA, in order to overcome the current crisis.

Armed conflict has been ongoing in Myanmar since the country gained independence in 1948 until the present day. Various approaches have been taken for peace, such as exchanging weapons for peace, exchanging weapons for economic benefits, and building peace through holding arms. However, an agreement that could lead to the cessation of armed conflicts and the resolution of political issues was never successfully created.

Colonel Saw Kyaw Nyunt, spokesperson for the 7 EAO Alliance, told CNI News Agency that they used the abbreviation NCA+ to refer to a platform that allows relevant organizations to participate in political dialogues to overcome the current crisis, even if they have not yet signed the NCA.

Colonel Saw Kyaw Nyunt seen at an anniversary ceremony of the NCA

He said, "The peace processes and political dialogues included in our NCA have been stalled (since February 2021) until today. So, when considering how to restart these kinds of political dialogues, we looked beyond the conventional NCA path and thought of a platform where groups that haven't signed the NCA can participate in discussions. This is about making an effort to overcome the crisis, where in the political dialogues, in addition to the NCA signatories, we've abbreviated and used the term NCA+ to allow organizations that should rightfully participate to overcome the current deadlock, even if they haven't signed the NCA. To be frank, at the past ceremony, 7 NCA-signatory groups attended, and groups like 'Wa,' 'Mongla,' and SSPP, though not NCA signatories, were allowed to attend the conference we were holding. You could consider this a platform where they got to discuss and consult together."

The NCA agreement consists of 7 chapters and 33 clauses. This agreement is seen as the only possible way to amend Myanmar’s 2008 Constitution—which is otherwise difficult to change—and is also the agreement through which democracy and a Federal Union can be discussed and established.

Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai-Lai (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News Agency that NCA+ is an invitation to discuss outside the agreement, and the NCA path is the best way for national peace.

Sai Htay Aung seen at an anniversary ceremony of the NCA

He said, "NCA+ is not a new agreement. It is an invitation for groups that do not agree with the NCA to engage in discussions outside of the NCA agreement. I believe the NCA path is the best way for national peace. However, some armed organizations wish to amend or reform the NCA, and some clauses are already permitted for modification. As for a group like the 'Wa,' they do not follow the NCA path; they stand independently, but they are included in the negotiating group. Currently, there were 10 NCA signatories, but after 3 groups withdrew, 7 groups remain. The Naga group is known to have signed at the regional level, but I hear they have not yet reached the Union level."

During the government led by U Thein Sein, the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) came into existence. That agreement is considered the best and most respectable agreement in Myanmar's history of peace building until the present time.