CNI News

6 February 2025

Around 700 local Shanni people from Kyaung Le and Pinkha Villages, Banmauk Township, upper Sagaing Region, are being abducted and tortured by a group allied with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), released Shanni CSOs on 3rd February 2025.

Nearly 300 local Shanni ethnic people from Kyaung Le Village, Banmauk Township by were forcibly abducted and taken away by a joint group led by the KIA on 29th January 2025. 
In the same way, nearly 400 local Shanni ethnic people from Pinkha Village, Banmauk Township were also abducted by force by joint forces led by the KIA 30th January 2025, reported the Shanni CSOs.

" Among the Shanni villagers who were abducted were included children eight months to three years, whose parents had to flee to China, young women and elderly people as well as Buddhist monks. Joint forces led by the KIA committed many inhumane acts such as dousing the Shanni villagers who were tied up with hot water including assault with gun butts, beatings, and torture." said in the statement released by the Shanni CSOs.

According to some villagers who escaped, joint forces led by the KIA fired into the village with heavy weapons and damaged monasteries, and the joint forces were digging trenches under cover of religious buildings.

The statement was jointly released by the Shanni Nationalities Unity Association (SNUA), the Shanni Youths Network (Waingmaw), the Shanni Youths Network (Banmauk), the Shanni Youths Network (Mohnyin), the Shanni Youths Network (Mogaung), and the Tai-Leng Students Union (TSU).

The KIA-PDF joint forces attack Kyaung Le and Pinkha Villages and are making military preparations to capture Banmauk Town.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw, the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA) and the KIA-PDF joint forces are being active in Banmauk Township, and the KIA-PDF joint forces are fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the SNA in the township.

KIA-PDF is using detained Shanni ethnic people as human shields during the battles, reported the Shanni CSOs.

CNI News

6 February 2025

To say that 'Myanmar could enjoy peace only if China helps' was not correct and Myanmar people themselves must work for internal peace, Chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

Due to China's brokered engagement, a ceasefire was reached between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), said Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Miss Mao Ning at the regular press conference on 20th January 2025.

Moreover, there are reports that a discussion between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the TNLA/the AA is scheduled this month. The Northern Alliance (the TNLA, the AA and the MNDAA) have announced that they would discuss peace with the Myanmar Tatmadaw with China's brokered engagement.

While seeing three northern groups and secretary of the NSPNC

China's mediation has not yet reached the level of peace; Stakeholders must carry out themselves to have peace; Myanmar won't have peace only when China provided, said Col. Khun Okkar

" In my opinion, peace can't be built through military means. Peace can only be built with military means, political means and diplomatic affairs. Only when a political agreement is reached and a good result is produced, will we have peace. At present, China's mediation hasn't reached peace. Regional flow of goods, opening trade routes, economy and stability are just prioritized. A political consensus is needed to bring peace to the entire country. It's not true that Myanmar will only have peace if China provides it. Stakeholders within the country must work for peace. China is carrying out the stability in the regions re."lated to it and will work to develop its economy. It is China's policy."

China would continue to actively support the peace process in northern Myanmar, said Miss Mao Ning, spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry. China has had the upper hand in Myanmar politics, U Kyi Myint, a political commentator, told CNI News.

It's not because China is clever, but because we are weak. The SAC has to act humbly when dealing with China. The SAC has no one to depend on except for China. 

While seeing two leaders of the AA

Russia can't help the SAC. The three brotherhoods (AA,TNLA,MNDAA) , especially the MNDAA speak Chinese and use Chinese currency. China has automatic influence on the MNDAA. In the same way, the UWSA and the NDAA (Myla) are the same as the MNDAA. So, China has the upper hand in Myanmar politics." said U Kyi Myint.

Myanmar is accelerating collaborative projects with China and Myanmar will continue to be China's reliable neighbor and good friend, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing at the  Chinese New Year 2025 ceremony.

Battles are breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and armed elements across the country and the Myanmar Tatmadaw has lost control of its military camps by the hundred, the Northeast Command and the West Command as well as over 90 townships.

The MNDAA, the UWSA, the NDAA, the KIA, the TNLA and the SSPP are active near the Chinese border.

CNI News

5 February 2025

EAOs did not appear to be strongly opposed to the election if the territories that they have captured were not destroyed, Chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News. 

At present, the Myanmar Tatmadaw has lost control of its several hundred military camps and over 90 townships including the Northeast Command and the West Command.

In addition to the challenges facing the SAC, there is still a need for stability and peace to ensure that elections can be held. The SAC has extended its term of office for another 6 months on February 1, 2025, in accordance with the constitution.

While seeing leaders of northern armed groups

" EAOs don't seem to strongly oppose the election if their territories they have controlled are not destroyed, especially Kachin, Chin and northern Shan State EAOs. Wa, Palaung, Kokang and Myla groups can be neutral. I don't think there will be any violent protests because according to the international law, international community doesn't accept opposing or destroying an election although there are various kinds of elections. So, I think the election could be held." said Col. Khun Okkar.

Military and political observers are watching whether the election could be held or not even though Chairman of the SAC has repeatedly said during 2024 that the election would be held in 2025.

Although Chairman of the SAC had said that the election would be held in August 2023, it cannot be held until today.

While seeing political parties

Due to regional instability and security conditions at present, political parties are also unable to carry out public organizing activities, resulting in a distorted situation, spokesperson of the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA) U Myo Kyaw told CNI News.

" The SAC formed the Union Election Commission with their men. Political parties were asked to register. But according to the current situation, it is difficult to even implement the work of a political party. As political parties, they can't organize, they can't gather people, and lots of people can't take to the streets. This is a big distortion, I think." said U Myo Kyaw.

Elections for the three Hluttaws must be conducted in accordance with the law, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing at the Work Coordination Meeting of the Union Government on 3rd February 2025.

Political parties would have to make necessary preparations and because security and stability would be needed in order that election campaigns could be carried out, the government should have made systematic preparations in accordance with law so that the election could be successfully held, he said.

CNI News

5 February 2025

Political parties must make necessary preparations for the election, said Chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC), Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing. He said the above at the Work Coordination Meeting of the Union Government that was held on 3rd February 2025.

The SAC would make efforts to ensure broad participation of representatives of all social classes in the Hluttaws that emerged after the general election, said Chairman of the SAC.
 
" Political parties must make necessary preparations, and security and stability would be needed so that election campaigns could be conducted," said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

While seeing Region and State chief ministers

He did not say exactly what necessary preparations meant what issues. The government must systematically calculate the issues that need to be prepared in advance to successfully hold the election and act in accordance with the laws; State and Region chief ministers and officials needed to study the laws related to elections in detail; and political parties must have made necessary preparations, he said.

Elections for the three Hluttaw - Pyithu Hluttaw, Amyotha Hluttaw and Region/State Hluttaw must be conducted in accordance with the law, said Chairman of the SAC.

A general election would be held in 2025 and the State power would be handed over to the winning party, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing. However, battles are breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and armed elements across the country and the rule of law is weak in the cities and stability is deteriorating.

CNI News

4 February 2025

The State Administration Council (SAC) cannot grant territories to EAOs which attacked and captured territories under the 2008 Constitution, Director of the Thayninga Institute for Startegy Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News. 

Political parties and political observers held a seminar in Yangon on February 2, 2025 under the title of  the State crisis and roles of government, citizens and political parties.

He answered the above to the question by CNI News at the meeting regarding the video footage that has been circulating from the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance (MNDAA).

" Because the SAC has kept the power under the 2008 Constitution, it cannot override the constitution. The video in question was released by one side (MNDAA) and is it a propaganda or an official agreement? It's like drawing conclusions based on one piece of information. They have released it during a temporary ceasefire. The SAC hasn't released it officially. So, we cannot draw any conclusions. What factors will determine whether or not the territory was given. The data is incomplete, and we can't say whether it's possible or not." he said.

The MNDAA must retreat from Lashio and the Myanmar government designated four districts - Kutkai, Theinni, Kunlong and Laukkai as Special Region - 1 and self-administration has been officially granted to the MNDAA, said an administrative official from the MNDAA at the Chinese New Year celebration in the video clip which has been circulating on the social media.

While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing

The SAC could not grant territories to EAOs under the 2008 Constitution; if it wanted to grant territories, it must stage a coup d'état after abolishing the 2008 Constitution; he didn't think Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing would do so, said U Thein Tun Oo.

" There is a possibility. If Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing wants to grant territories to EAOs, he must abolish the 2008 Constitution and stage a coup d'état. But I don't think he will do so. If he granted territories, he had made a big mistake. Later, when the data becomes available, review probably will be out." said U Thein Tun Oo.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw and the MNDAA reached a temporary ceasefire agreement because of China's mediation, said the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Miss Mao Ning at the regular press conference on 20th January 2025.

After a temporary ceasefire agreement was reached between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the MNDAA, A video footage went viral claiming that 4 districts have been designated as Special Region (1) and there were also reports that the Kokang troops would withdraw in groups.

Whether the designation of the area as a Special Region (1) is granted under the 2008 Constitution or not, questions are being raised among military and political observers.

At present, the MNDAA has seized control of Chin Shwe Haw, Laukkai, Kyukote, Mong Ko, Theinni, Phaungsai and Kunlong Towns, where are China-Myanmar border trade posts including the Northeast Command of the Myanmar Tatmadaw and Lashio City in northern Shan State.

CNI News

4 February 2025

China could take part in Myanmar's domestic affairs more than the current period, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs analyst, told CNI News. 

China was carrying out to make a great economic market arise in collaboration with the ASEAN countries before western countries could take part in it and because China is trying to gain a good image that it is carrying out the global peace as able as it can, it could probably take part in Myanmar's domestic affairs more than the current period, she said.

" China is trying hard in order to make a great economic market arise in Asia in collaboration with the ASEAN countries before western countries can take part in it. So, China wants Myanmar's civil war to end as soon as possible. China is trying to make Myanmar participate in the great market. China seems to continue  trying it. It depends on the discussions between the armed groups and the military council. China is negotiating everything like this. Not only in Myanmar but also in the Middle East and Ukraine. If things go wrong in the world, it could lead to World War III. If there is a third world war, it could result in a nuclear war. The whole world could suffer. It is trying to create the image that it is doing its best for world peace. So, China could take part in Myanmar's domestic affairs more than the current period." said Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw.

Because Myanmar has an exit to the Bay of Bengal for China, China would intervene in Myanmar's domestic affairs as much as it could, pointed out military and political analysts. 

While seeing Chinese FM Wang Yi and Sr-Gen Than Shwe (Retired)

So, it wants to hold the election ASAP and is brokering to make dialogues arise. Because it could take more time if dialogues were held, There are suggestions to take a risk by holding an election, U Khun Sai who is taking part in the peace process, told CNI News.

" Myanmar people have been suffering during the state of emergency for four years. They will suffer for long if the discussions are conducted. So, there are suggestions that a risk should be taken by holding an election. If the election was held, a person alone could not maintain three powers and there would be distribution of power. And then, there might be more opportunities to create what we want, which some have urged." said U Khun Sai.

At present, the State Administration Council has extended the state of emergency for another six months. Therefore, the international community is watching to see if elections can be held within the next six months and so are military and political analysts.

In this context, they are also watching to see how China will further intervene for the ability to hold the election. At present, China is trying to stop the fighting and promote peace talks between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the Northern Alliance (TNLA-AA-MNDAA).

CNI News

1 February 2025

Although China could only directly intervene in the northern ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and influence on them, it was not easy for China to directly intervene in the southern EAOs, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News. 

Although China was putting pressure, since the Northern Alliance (AA,TNLA,MNDAA) has already taken the military lead, although dialogues or ceasefire could be conducted between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and three northern allies, it wouldn't be likely for southern EAOs to do so, he said.

" China has no its influence on southern EAOs because Thailand bordering southern part of Myanmar and southern EAOs are pro-American elements. They don't like China so much. It's not easy for China to intervene in the southern part of Myanmar. According to the current situation of Myanmar, it's impossible to meet and discuss because the military council doesn't stop terrorism. Northern EAOs especially the MNDAA had to cease fire unavoidably because of China's pressure and moreover because the MNDAA has taken the military lead. It's impossible to do so in the southern part." said U Than Soe Naing.

While seeing leaders from the Northern Alliance

China has made attempts to end armed conflicts on the Myanmar side bordering China and it met and discussed with the northern three brotherhood alliance (AA,TNLA,MNDAA). 

Moreover, China is putting pressure to implement peace talks between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the three brotherhood alliance. 

As a result,  three northern allies released their statements separately to meet and discuss with Myanmar Tatmadaw.

The MNDAA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw met and discussed in December 2024 and in January 2025. 

And then, a temporary ceasefire agreement was reached between the two sides.

While seeing Chinese FM Wang Yi and Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the SAC

However, China only announced the agreement and the two sides concerned did not. In this way, China's intervention obviously could be seen.

Although China could not directly influence on southern EAOs, it could indirectly through Thailand, U Khun Sai who is taking part in the peace process, told CNI News.

" Regarding the ceasefire agreement between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the MNDAA, relevant EAOs didn't announce the agreement. China only announced it. So, in this case, China's intervention looks bigger. It's hard to say about the TNLA because the discussion between the TNLA and China started not long ago. Southern EAOs have closer relations with Thailand. So, if China wants to influence on these EAOs, it can directly deal with them or through Thailand." said U Khun Sai.

In southern Myanmar, armed groups such as Karenni, Karen, Mon, and Rakhine are also active, as are PDF.

CNI News

1 February 2025

She didn't encourage that the National Unity Government would capture towns and cities, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs commentator, told CNI News. 

Proclaiming that the NUG would take Mandalay from the Myanmar Tatmadaw was not just talk, but would put it into practice, said Nay Phone Latt, spokesperson of the NUG PM Office at the campaigne of 'The wave that will go home, Ayeyarwady Region'. 

As the NUG, Mandalay should be surrounded and only after the surrounding area was systematically captured, should it gradually advance, said Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw.

While seeing the NUG's PM Mahn Win Khine Than and PDF comrades

" The Myanmar Tatmadaw lost control of Mandalay in 1950-51. At that time, the Burma Communist Party and the Pyithu Yebaw joint forces attacked the city. Now, if the NUG and its allies systematically attacked Mandalay at the speed of Operation 1027, they would be able to capture it. I don't want to encourage captures of towns and cities. But the NUG has to do what donors like, I think. Donors will be pleased only if the NUG and its allies can capture cities, I think. But since we are making a revolution to replace one system with another, a big target shouldn't have been laid down. After surrounding Mandalay and systematically securing the surrounding area, it would be better to advance gradually, I think. Look at Bhamo for example. Just circle around it and then slowly advance. It would be better to do so, I think." said Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw.

The NUG was making preparations to capture Mandalay without damaging it and the NUG had prepared for Pyin Oo Lwin as well, said the NUG's Minister for Health and Education Dr. Zaw Wai Soe in September 2024.

Once an organization was formed, it was often a matter of giving motivational speeches, but it was difficult to put them into practice on the ground; proclaiming that the NUG would capture Mandalay was impossible in practice, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News.

While seeing the NUG's Defense Minister U Yi Mon and PDF comrades

" They said a lot about what they would achieve in which years. Compare those things with the actual situation to see if they actually happen. It's always obvious. Once a group has formed, it is common to say things like this to motivate its supporters. It's very difficult to become true as they say. This time, there is no reason  to put it into practice." said U Thein Tun Oo.

Although the NUG has over 300 battalions and over 200 defense units, they still are unable to fight effectively. 

So, There has been no organization that meets the demands of the actual struggle inside the military elements led by the NUG, pointed out military and political analysts. 

At present, EAOs and the NUG have seized control of 144 townships, released the NUG's Ministry of Defense on 4th January 2025.

CNI News

1 February 2025

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the People's Defense Force (PDF) are jointly launching offensives against the Myanmar Tatmadaw to capture Banmauk Town in Sagaing Region, adjacent to Kachin State and building up military strength, according to locals. 

The KIA-PDF joint forces have been launching an offensive against the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA) in Kyaungle, Pinhinkha, Hsettaw and Nayaka Villages near Banmauk since 27th January 2025.

Battles are severely breaking out between the two sides. 

While seeing the map based on Banmauk

Around 600 KIA-PDF forces operating in Homalin and Narmaw in Homalin Township were on their way to reinforce the offensive to capture Bham Mauk, said locals and revolutionary forces.

Banmauk is a town of great military strategic importance and It is also a commercial market for timber smugglers. 

At present, the KIA/PDF joint forces are launching an offensive to capture Banmauk and at the same time they are launching an offensive to capture Inndaw Town near Banmauk.