CNI News

30 October 2025

The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) announced on October 29, 2025, that its troops will withdraw from Mogok and Momauk towns following the signing of a bilateral ceasefire agreement.

The talks were held in Kyukok (Pansai) from October 27 to 28, 2025, under the mediation of China. Delegations were led by Lieutenant General Ko Ko Oo from the Myanmar military and Deputy Commander-in-Chief Tar Jock Jar from the TNLA.

This was the ninth round of talks between the two sides, and they reached an agreement to enforce the ceasefire starting from October 29, 2025.

The TNLA stated “Through the mediation and coordination of the Chinese Special Envoy, both sides were able to hold reciprocal discussions and negotiations. According to the agreed terms, TNLA forces will withdraw from Mogok and Momauk townships within the designated period, while the Myanmar military will refrain from conducting airstrikes and offensive operations in TNLA-controlled areas. Starting from October 29, 2025, both sides have agreed to halt their troops at their current positions and signed the bilateral ceasefire agreement.”

However, TNLA did not specify the exact timeline or duration for the complete withdrawal from Mogok and Momauk.

The TNLA had previously captured 12 townships during its 1027 military offensive. Later, beginning in June–July 2025, the Myanmar military retook control of several areas including Naungcho, Kyaukme, and Hsipaw.

CNI News

30 October 2025

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, stated that neglecting young people could lead to a Demographic Burden and a decrease in stability and peace, and in the worst-case scenario, it could result in a Demographic Disaster (the danger of population decline).

He made this statement at the ceremony in Nay Pyi Taw on October 27, 2025, for the release of the Union Report on the 2024 Population and Housing Census.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said, "In many countries around the world, when young people are nurtured, fostered, and provided with opportunities and hopes, they become the driving force for the country's development. By investing beneficially in our youth today, we can seize the benefits of the Demographic Dividend in the future. Otherwise, if our youth are neglected, it could lead to a Demographic Burden and a decrease in stability and peace, and in the worst-case scenario, a Demographic Disaster (the danger of population decline)."

Myanmar youths

Therefore, he stressed the need to formulate and adopt population policies appropriate for the country to achieve a desirable and suitable population that aligns with Myanmar's land, water, and natural resources. He added that preparations must be made by looking ahead for a generation, emphasizing that "You cannot dig a well now and expect to drink clear water immediately."

According to the 2024 census data, the country's population has decreased slightly for the first time in decades. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said this is due to a decline in the birth rate, high migration rates, and changes in family patterns, which present both a challenge and an opportunity.

He noted that outward migration depends on the country's socio-economic conditions, political stability, domestic employment opportunities, and the economic development of neighboring countries. Therefore, long-term development plans must be established and implemented to manage and guide the situation.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing seen at a census ceremony

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing stated, "Although outward migration is high among our country’s youth, as a result of a previously high birth rate, the number of young, working-age people is still large. In other words, we are still in a period where we can reap the Demographic Bonus, also known as the Demographic Dividend. Therefore, it is crucial to properly and effectively manage these young people to benefit national development efforts before the period for receiving the Demographic Dividend runs out."

In Myanmar, censuses were conducted eight times between 1872 and 1941 before independence. Subsequently, censuses were conducted in 1973, 1983, 2014, and 2024.

CNI News

30 October 2025

Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News Agency that the United Wa State Army (UWSA) should be granted State status, upgrading it from the current "Wa" Self-Administered Division.

Under the 2008 Constitution, six townships in Shan State—Hopang, Mongmao, Panwai, Narphan, Matman, and Pangkham (Panghsang)—are organized into two districts and designated as the "Wa" Self-Administered Division.

At a peace workshop held on October 17, Lieutenant General Yar Pyae, Chairman of the National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC), stated that if the UWSA desires a "Wa" State under the 2008 Constitution, they should contest the election and make their demand in the Hluttaw (Parliament).

Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the TNDP, told CNI News Agency that the UWSA should be granted the requested State status because the "Wa" armed group possesses the necessary characteristics and mechanisms of a State. However, he noted that achieving Statehood would require multiple rounds of discussion in the Hluttaw.

The United Wa State Party

He stated, "Why? Because the 'Wa' was not included in the Shan Federation State before independence. It was only incorporated into Shan State after independence. At that time, perhaps because the 'Wa' region was extremely underdeveloped, or perhaps to avoid providing support, I can't say for sure, but the 'Wa' area was kept separate until Myanmar gained independence. Regarding the development of the 'Wa' region, it started to develop when the Communist Party of Burma (CPB) was defeated in the Bago Yoma mountain range and established its Northeast headquarters in Shan State. Therefore, now that the 'Wa' is asking for a State, and since it already possesses all the features and mechanisms that constitute a State, I believe that if the matter is discussed and negotiated within the Hluttaw, they can achieve it without bloodshed. Why? Because the Union government, or rather, the participants of the 21st Century Panglong, have agreed to build a Union based on democracy and a federal system. Given the federal system, I would like to say that the 'Wa' deserves to be granted State status by incorporating a framework for a new State into the Constitution."

If the UWSA wishes to obtain State status, it would only receive the level of State status prescribed by the 2008 Constitution.

Military and political analysts point out that because the 2008 Constitution centralizes executive, judicial, and legislative powers under the central government, the UWSA, which currently exercises its own administrative, judicial, and legislative powers, is already operating beyond the provisions of the 2008 Constitution.

The "Wa" armed group, which fought alongside the CPB, seized power from the CPB on April 17, 1989, established the United Wa State Party (UWSP), and subsequently agreed to a ceasefire with the government.

The armed wing of the UWSP is the UWSA, which is currently the strongest armed group among all domestic armed groups.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing who is ruling Myanmar

U Khun Sai, a person involved in the peace process, told CNI News Agency that it must not be forgotten that the issue of granting the "Wa" the requested State status is not merely an affair of Shan State, but a matter for the entire Union.

He said, "The privileges currently enjoyed by the 'Wa,' and those enjoyed by Mongla, are many times greater than what Shan State currently has. Because they enjoy significantly greater privileges, whether they can accept a reduction or not is something the Shan people need to discuss among themselves. It is also something that needs to be discussed with all the nationalities across the entire Union, outside of Shan State. Without such a discussion, if the current status quo is maintained, other ethnic groups within Shan State will start to demand, 'We want to be like the Wa too.' Similarly, people in other States and Regions across the Union will also demand, 'We want to be like the Wa.' If this happens, how will all the people of the Union handle this situation? We need to collectively consider these issues. Therefore, we must not forget that the 'Wa's' current demand is not just an issue for Shan State; it is an issue for the entire Union."

Currently, the administrative, legislative, and judicial situations in the areas controlled by the UWSA are not under the control of the central government but are exclusively under the control of the UWSA.

Although the UWSA signed a Union-level ceasefire agreement with the government, it did not sign the NCA. Following the political change in 2021, the UWSA met and discussed with the Tatmadaw in response to its peace invitation, and UWSA delegations have also participated in peace forums.

CNI New

30 October 2025

There are questions being raised about the meaning of the definition of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) plus the additional NCA+, which is being discussed between the Myanmar Military (Tatmadaw) and ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) for the cessation of armed conflict in Myanmar.

Political analysts suggest that NCA+ could mean extending an invitation to organizations that should rightfully participate in political dialogues, even if they have not yet signed the NCA, in order to overcome the current crisis.

Armed conflict has been ongoing in Myanmar since the country gained independence in 1948 until the present day. Various approaches have been taken for peace, such as exchanging weapons for peace, exchanging weapons for economic benefits, and building peace through holding arms. However, an agreement that could lead to the cessation of armed conflicts and the resolution of political issues was never successfully created.

Colonel Saw Kyaw Nyunt, spokesperson for the 7 EAO Alliance, told CNI News Agency that they used the abbreviation NCA+ to refer to a platform that allows relevant organizations to participate in political dialogues to overcome the current crisis, even if they have not yet signed the NCA.

Colonel Saw Kyaw Nyunt seen at an anniversary ceremony of the NCA

He said, "The peace processes and political dialogues included in our NCA have been stalled (since February 2021) until today. So, when considering how to restart these kinds of political dialogues, we looked beyond the conventional NCA path and thought of a platform where groups that haven't signed the NCA can participate in discussions. This is about making an effort to overcome the crisis, where in the political dialogues, in addition to the NCA signatories, we've abbreviated and used the term NCA+ to allow organizations that should rightfully participate to overcome the current deadlock, even if they haven't signed the NCA. To be frank, at the past ceremony, 7 NCA-signatory groups attended, and groups like 'Wa,' 'Mongla,' and SSPP, though not NCA signatories, were allowed to attend the conference we were holding. You could consider this a platform where they got to discuss and consult together."

The NCA agreement consists of 7 chapters and 33 clauses. This agreement is seen as the only possible way to amend Myanmar’s 2008 Constitution—which is otherwise difficult to change—and is also the agreement through which democracy and a Federal Union can be discussed and established.

Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai-Lai (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News Agency that NCA+ is an invitation to discuss outside the agreement, and the NCA path is the best way for national peace.

Sai Htay Aung seen at an anniversary ceremony of the NCA

He said, "NCA+ is not a new agreement. It is an invitation for groups that do not agree with the NCA to engage in discussions outside of the NCA agreement. I believe the NCA path is the best way for national peace. However, some armed organizations wish to amend or reform the NCA, and some clauses are already permitted for modification. As for a group like the 'Wa,' they do not follow the NCA path; they stand independently, but they are included in the negotiating group. Currently, there were 10 NCA signatories, but after 3 groups withdrew, 7 groups remain. The Naga group is known to have signed at the regional level, but I hear they have not yet reached the Union level."

During the government led by U Thein Sein, the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) came into existence. That agreement is considered the best and most respectable agreement in Myanmar's history of peace building until the present time.

CNI News

29 October 2025

Although China and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) have agreed to reopen Myanmar–China border gates inside Kachin State, military and political analysts believe that the KIA may have to make certain concessions to the Tatmadaw (Myanmar military) as a result of this agreement.

On October 25, 2025, four border gates — Lweje, Kanpaitee, Laiza, and Mai Jayang — were reopened for the import of Chinese consumer and essential goods only.

According to China–Myanmar affairs analyst Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, behind China's decision to reopen these gates, the KIA may have to make certain concessions to the Tatmadaw.

Kanpaitee border trade area

“China is certainly making some kind of exchange deal. Once the KIA benefits from the reopening of border gates, it will likely have to make some concessions to the military council. The same thing happened with the MNDAA. Some towns were returned to the junta, and in return, the border gates were reopened. Once trade resumed, economic activity improved significantly. Whether China reopened gates for the MNDAA or for the Ta’ang (TNLA), the result was similar — better trade and a revived border economy. This benefits not only the border groups but also the people of Myanmar. China’s strategy is to pressure both sides — the junta and the ethnic groups — while at the same time revitalizing its major regional free trade network in Asia. Therefore, China is employing multiple tactics to achieve that strategic goal. Under that grand strategy, the reopening of border gates and restoration of trade will gradually continue.”, she said.

Meanwhile, locals say that due to the ongoing political and military turmoil, people across the country are struggling economically as prices of essential goods have sharply risen.

Myanmar affairs analyst U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News that China may also be reopening the gates out of humanitarian concern:

While KIA was removing a border gate

“It can also be said that China has slightly reduced its political pressure. Another reason could be humanitarian sympathy. Those of us living in Yangon might not feel it directly, but ordinary people in conflict areas are suffering the most. They are not involved in the fighting, yet they are the ones enduring hardship. In those border areas, commodity prices have skyrocketed. People are facing economic collapse and severe livelihood difficulties.
Therefore, China may have reopened the gates to ease the suffering of local civilians.”

At present, four China–Kachin border gates have reopened, but the Man Wein Gyi gate in Mansi Township and the Panwar gate remain closed.

CNI News

29 October 2025

Due to the widening attacks by the Muslim armed group ARSA (Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army) in Maungdaw and Buthidaung, Rakhine State, analysts are discussing why the group has become active again in northern Rakhine.

Observers say that ARSA may have returned to Rakhine after suffering setbacks and fragmentation in other regions. They note that the Arakan Army (AA) now controls more than half of Rakhine State, leaving ARSA with limited prospects elsewhere, which may have prompted it to re-emerge in the region.

U Myo Kyaw from the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA) told CNI News:

“ARSA receives backing from some Islamic countries. Globally, Islamic migration is widespread, and conflicts involving them exist in various places. When they face defeats or fragmentation in other regions, they tend to return to areas like Rakhine within Myanmar to rebuild their strength. Previously, they could maintain their presence under the cover of diplomatic, international human rights, and humanitarian issues without much military confrontation. But now, since the Arakan Army controls almost all of Rakhine, ARSA may see its long-term prospects as unfavorable and is attempting to reassert itself.
At present, the Rakhine forces are fighting against the military regime on one side, while on the other, ARSA and ARSO are striking from behind. This could be seen as a two-front war aimed at weakening the Rakhine revolution so that ARSA can seize the opportunity to replace it.”

A crossroads inside Rakhine State

According to local administrative sources, around 50 civilians have been killed between May and October 2025 in Maungdaw and Buthidaung due to ARSA attacks.

On October 22, ARSA ambushed a passenger vehicle near Myoyu village, Maungdaw Township, killing two women from Setibyin village, Rathedaung Township, who were returning from shopping, the AA reported.
Military and political analysts note that ARSA’s activities in Rakhine have intensified in 2025 and that the group primarily targets civilians.

There are also reports that ARSA and ARSO are operating with the support of Bangladesh’s Border Guard (BGB), infiltrating Maungdaw District through routes along the Naf River and the Mayu mountain range.

According to U Thein Tun Oo, Executive Director of the Institute for Strategy Studies, these developments stem from not being under the control of central government in the area:

Arakan Army leaders seen during a meeting

“Since the 2018 crisis in northern Rakhine, analysts have warned that conflicts could grow if central administration and control disappear. Although the AA claims control over the northern parts of Rakhine, it does not function as a fully authoritative government. Therefore, when another armed group with comparable strength emerges, such clashes are inevitable.”

The extremist Islamist militant groups ARSA and ARSO have reportedly been threatening local civilians along the Myanmar–Bangladesh border, seizing property and instilling fear.
In response, the Arakan Army (AA) has warned civilians in border areas not to travel alone or in small groups through forests and remote regions.

If travel is absolutely necessary, including for medical reasons, the Arakan People’s Revolutionary Government has urged residents to inform the nearest local administrative or security forces beforehand.

Regarding ARSA and ARSO attacks, the Bangladesh interim government has recently been urged by the Arakan Army to find bilateral cooperation mechanisms to prevent further escalation and promote coordination.

CNI News

29 October 2025

Observers point out that due to the ongoing armed conflicts in Myanmar, it is difficult for foreign investment to enter the country and for the public to conduct trade and business.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, stated on October 19, 2025, that economic activities cannot be carried out if stability is disrupted by armed violence. Therefore, he stressed the imperative need to curb armed violence and work towards regional stability and peace.

Colonel Saw Kyaw Nyunt, spokesperson for the 7 EAO Alliance, told CNI News Agency that it is difficult to conduct business without stability and peace in a region.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing

He said: “International experts talk about Myanmar’s economic situation from various perspectives. Based on the objective situation on the ground, armed conflicts are occurring. They are still ongoing, and this is the time when the armed conflict is historically the most widespread and severe. Whether within the country or among our public, the economy is quite tight, to be frank. It is extremely difficult for a business to survive without regional stability and peace. Whether we look at international experience or our country’s own journey, everyone already knows that it is very difficult to achieve development and conduct business without stability and peace in a region.”

Currently, intense battles are raging across Myanmar, both between the Myanmar Armed Forces (Tatmadaw) and ethnic armed groups, and among the armed groups themselves.

Similarly, as both sides are accelerating recruitment, young people are fleeing abroad, and Myanmar is losing human resources as others are forced to enter the fighting.

Colonel Saw Kyaw Nyunt, spokesperson for the 7 EAO Alliance, told CNI News Agency that while attempting to bring the civil war in Myanmar to a complete end, the people have found themselves in a life of tears amidst this large-scale and widespread armed conflict.

Colonel Saw Kyaw Nyunt and other armed group leaders are seen

He continued: "In the current political landscape of our country, there is a lot of finger-pointing and blaming one another. Armed conflict is widespread in our country—a civil war. We have made attempts to bring it to a complete end, but while striving, the people are now living lives full of tears amidst this unprecedented, massive, and widespread armed conflict. They are still facing it now. There are various views on these armed conflicts. This is an undeniable, objective reality."

The armed conflict in Myanmar has lasted for over 70 years, from 1948 until today.

Due to these armed conflicts, the lack of regional stability and peace, reduced rule of law, high electricity demand, insecure trade and travel routes, and internal displacement have made conducting business increasingly difficult.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing noted that Myanmar's production sector has been weak, leading to the excessive exploitation of natural resources. Therefore, he stated that Tatmadaw personnel, in their respective areas of duty, need to cooperate and assist the public in increasing production based on the foundational sectors of agriculture and livestock.

CNI News 

29 October 2025

The Chairman of the Shan and Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP), Sai Aik Paung, told CNI News Agency that he will contest the upcoming election, scheduled to be held in Myanmar, from the Amyotha Hluttaw constituency in Bago District, Bago Region.

Myanmar is scheduled to hold Phase (1) of the election in 102 townships on December 28, 2025.

Sai Aik Paung said: "I will contest for the Amyotha Hluttaw constituency in Bago District, Bago Region. The situation in Bago is very good. What is the slogan? The slogan is: 'To progress peacefully, let's vote for the White Tiger Party.' If you want peace and development, the people should vote for the White Tiger Party. Only then will there be peace and development. We will also provide training on how to campaign for the candidates. The training will have two parts: the issue of the constitution and the issue of election campaigning. We will train people in our party on the constitutional matters they should know, the do's and don'ts for parliamentary candidates, and how to campaign to the public."

Sai Aik Paung and members of the White Tiger Party are seen

Political parties say that the public's interest in the upcoming election on December 28 is low, and few people are coming to check the announced voter lists.

Sai Aik Paung told CNI News Agency that people should not abstain from voting in the upcoming election, as failing to vote and letting an unliked party win and form the government would cause them significant harm.

He stated: "Some people say they won't vote in the election. Please don't do that; please vote. Don't lose this rare opportunity. Everyone over 18 should vote for the party they like. Only then will the party you like become the government. If you don't vote and a party you dislike wins and becomes the government, that will cause you a lot of harm. Everyone over 18, all parents and citizens, please come and vote on election day. Now it's very easy, just press a button. What's the harm in going once in five years? How many thousands of days are there in five years? 365 days a year, so five years is about 1,800 to 2,000 days. What's the harm in going to vote for just one day? Please go and vote."

The list of candidates contesting the election to be held on December 28, 2025, is seen

The SNDP) is a Union-level party, and 584 candidates will contest the election scheduled for December 28, 2025.

During the election held under the previous civilian government, the public was interested in checking the voter lists and personally made corrections and additions if there were errors.

However, observers point out that because the election results were annulled based on disputes over the voter lists, people have low confidence and little interest in the upcoming election.

CNI News

28 October 2025

Local residents say that the KIA-PDF-Kadu forces, which have seized control of Banmauk Township in Upper Sagaing Region, were setting fire to the area near the police station and Hlazingon Ward on the afternoon of October 26, 2025.

A video file documented by a drone, showing the fire damage, was also found.

A Banmauk local said: "They are burning the area of the Banmauk Police Station and Hlazingon Ward, starting around 12 noon. The KIA-PDF-Kadu forces are doing the burning. The military (Tatmadaw) and SNA forces are no longer there; they are just near Banmauk town. The KIA-PDF have been occupying the town since September 20. The SNA is also launching an offensive to retake the town. The KIA-PDF troops were instructed to burn the town if they had to retreat. They told the locals that if they had to withdraw, they would burn everything and frame it as damage caused by the SNA attack."

Currently, the Shan Nationalities Army (SNA) and the Myanmar Armed Forces (Tatmadaw) are preparing militarily to retake Banmauk town and are reportedly positioned about a mile away, according to local residents.

A combined force of no less than 18 revolutionary groups, including the KIA-PDF-Kadu forces, launched an offensive on Banmauk town on September 15 and captured and controlled it on September 20.

Banmauk town was previously controlled by the SNA forces.

Subsequently, fighting has been occurring between the KIA-PDF-Kadu forces and the SNA.