CNI News

May 14, 2026

Military and political analysts have pointed out that in peace negotiations between the government/military and ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), it is more appropriate to set the acceptance of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) as a benchmark rather than insisting on the acceptance of the 2008 Constitution.

Political observers emphasize that peace talks should aim for political change without being hindered by preconditions. They noted that while there are claims of accepting a federal system, the reality remains confined within the framework of the 2008 Constitution, which lacks true federal characteristics.

A political analyst told CNI News that progress is unlikely if rigid preconditions are imposed during peace talks. He suggested that if any prerequisites must be set, it would be more effective to transition toward accepting the NCA rather than the 2008 Constitution.

"Preconditions usually include things like having to accept the 2008 Constitution or being barred from discussing the right to secession. Now, there are demands like troop positions returning to where they were before 2023. If these are made mandatory before talks even begin, we cannot move forward," the analyst said.

Leaders of armed organizations seen together.

He continued, "For the groups that have already signed the NCA, the path is clear: we are moving toward a federal democratic system. Therefore, rather than a restriction like accepting the 2008 Constitution, the NCA—which was already discussed and approved with other ethnic organizations—is a better foundation. Even groups like the AA and KIA once expressed willingness to sign the NCA, but the military rejected it at the time. According to inside information, when former President U Thein Sein asked if the military would accept it, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing refused. If we want to set a standard, accepting the NCA would make negotiations much smoother."

Military and political analysts further noted that holding talks without preconditions could lead to a temporary peace, which could then serve as a foundation for rebuilding trust and discussing long-term goals step-by-step.

Additionally, they emphasized that accountability and responsibility are vital in the peace process. Without them, success is unlikely, as peace can only be achieved after trust has been established.

Colonel Saw Kyaw Nyunt, spokesperson for the 7 EAO Alliance, told CNI News that the role of rebuilding trust is extremely important. He stated that the current government needs to make significant political concessions and efforts to revive the peace table.

Attendees at the NCA Anniversary event.

"The peace we talk about is focused on firmly establishing a federal democratic union. When we say 'federal democracy,' the role of EAOs and ethnic political parties is vital, just as the role of the public cannot be ignored in a democracy," he said.

"Regarding the trust-building process, we have many discussion points. As the entity currently responsible for all state affairs, the government needs to exert more effort and show greater foresight. They need more patience and a better mindset than the EAOs. To bring peace talks back to the table, the government must provide significant political relaxation. Despite whatever difficulties or crises exist, they must bravely strive to create an environment for face-to-face dialogue," the Colonel added.

While Myanmar’s internal issues must be resolved domestically, military and political analysts also pointed out that international pressure and engagement remain crucial factors for the success of the peace process.

CNI News

May 14, 2026

Myanmar truck drivers report that they are being forced to halt operations at the Myanmar-China border gates in northern Shan State and Kachin State, as Chinese cargo trucks dominate the cross-border traffic.

Myanmar trucks have been sidelined at the Kan Pite Tee and Lwe Je border trade gates in Kachin State. This is because Chinese trucks are being used to transport resources from the Myanmar side, including tissue-culture bananas grown in Kachin State and rare earth minerals.

Furthermore, hundreds of Chinese trucks are daily transporting minerals from Namtu and Hsenwi through the Chinshwehaw border gate in northern Shan State.

The KIA and MNDAA, which control these border trade gates, permit only Chinese trucks to enter and exit. Myanmar trucks remain stationary because these groups do not provide security guarantees for them.

Ko Hein Zin, a truck driver, told CNI News that Myanmar trucks are also being forced to stop because Chinese traders are driving down prices for their services.

Scenes from Kan Pite Tee border trade.

"There is a high influx of Chinese trucks. They are even driving them by themselves. We Myanmar truckers are facing huge difficulties; we simply can't travel anymore. Previously, this was work handled by Myanmar trucks and Myanmar people, but now they only work with Chinese trucks, so our trucks have to stay parked. They are currently transporting bananas to the Chinese side.

Among the trucks heading to the border to carry bananas, they squeeze the prices for Myanmar trucks. But they pay the rates for Chinese trucks. Most of us are just parked. Since there's no profit, we don't go out," he said.

Tissue-culture bananas grown in Myanmar are exported to China year-round. It is reported that since the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) took control of Waingmaw and Kan Pite Tee, Chinese trucks have been used for transport, leaving Myanmar truckers unemployed.

Truckers also noted that because there is no Myanmar government administration in these areas, Chinese trucks are entering and exiting without having to pay official taxes.

Scenes from Myanmar-China border trade.

Ko Aung Tun, another truck driver, told CNI News that the sidelining of Myanmar trucks and the resulting unemployment for drivers is due to political instability.

"I think this is happening because of political instability. It also depends on the traders. Since most of the goods are going to China, I think they trust and commission their own Chinese trucks. They don't pay customs duties this way. As drivers, we only earn our living when the trucks move. With Chinese trucks coming in, we are mostly stuck. I don't know how they will handle this or how it will proceed. We would be satisfied if we could just operate smoothly again," he said.

Currently, due to the government's 100-day plan, inspections and seizures of illegal goods entering from China and Thailand are being carried out across Myanmar. Consequently, truck drivers report that security inspections have been tightened along trade routes.

CNI News

May 13, 2026

On May 11, 2026, the Assam Rifles attacked members of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang/Ang Mai (NSCN-K/AM) operating in the Doimukh Nallah area of Changlang district, Arunachal Pradesh, India.

The attack resulted in the deaths of Colonel Am Kon and Sergeant Enu from the NSCN-K/AM.

In a statement, the NSCN-K/AM said: "We categorically condemn this irresponsible and provocative act occurring at a time when we have clearly demonstrated our commitment to peace. Such actions are not only deeply regrettable but also undermine mutual understanding and could endanger the fragile peace environment maintained through patience and responsibility."

The two individuals killed in the attack by the Assam Rifles.

The group further stated that the use of force and aggression at such a critical juncture further erodes trust, escalates tensions, and harms all sincere efforts toward peaceful coexistence and political dialogue.

Consequently, the NSCN-K/AM called on the relevant authorities to provide an immediate explanation as to whether this incident occurred under instructions from the Indian Central Government or was an independent decision by the Assam Rifles, and demanded guarantees to prevent such incidents from recurring.

The NSCN-K/AM is a Naga armed group based in the Naga Self-Administered Zone of Sagaing Region, Myanmar. The group is currently striving to control the Ledo Road (Stilwell Road), which connects to Kachin State through Pangsau Township in the Naga region. Due to these efforts, they are involved in territorial disputes and clashes with the NSCN-K/YA.

It is reported that the NSCN-K/AM is currently maintaining constructive peace engagements with both the Myanmar and Indian governments.

CNI News

May 13, 2026

Out of a 419-vehicle military convoy that traveled from Mandalay via the Htigyaing–Indaw–Mohnyin–Myitkyina route, over 300 vehicles arrived at the Northern Command Headquarters in Myitkyina, Kachin State, on May 12, 2026.

According to local residents, the convoy included tanks, fuel tankers, and trucks carrying ammunition and food supplies. The remaining vehicles reportedly remained behind in Mawlu, Mawhan, Mohnyin, and Mogaung.

The Myanmar Military regained control of the Mandalay–Madaya–Singu–Thabeikkyin–Tagaung–Htigyaing–Indaw–Mawlu–Nantsiung–Mohnyin–Mogaung–Myitkyina communication route on May 6, 2026, following a military operation that lasted one year and three months.

Subsequently, the route has been reopened to facilitate the flow of trade and travel.

CNI News

May 13, 2026

Farmers are reportedly benefiting from cheaper market prices following the Ministry of Finance and Revenue's decision to extend a one-month tax exemption on the 2% income tax levied on imports of diesel fuel and fertilizer.

The 2% advance income tax exemption on fertilizer imports, which was initially in effect from April 1 to April 30, has now been extended until May 31. Similarly, the exemptions for customs duties, special goods tax, commercial tax, and the 2% advance income tax on diesel fuel imports have also been extended for an additional month.

Farmers noted that while they had to purchase a barrel of diesel for 3 million kyats (30 lakhs) during the recent harvest season, the current price has dropped to between 1.2 million and 1.5 million kyats (12 to 15 lakhs) per barrel.

U Thein Aung, the former chairman of the Farmers' Development Association, told CNI News that because of these tax exemptions on fuel imports, the price of diesel purchased by farmers has dropped by nearly half.

A fuel station.

"I haven't asked about fertilizer prices yet because I haven't needed to buy any. I’m not sure how they will be sold when the time comes. Currently, farmers aren't using fertilizer for the monsoon paddy yet. As for diesel, the outside market price has dropped to around 1.2 or 1.3 million kyats. Since it previously reached 2.4 to 2.6 million, the price has basically been cut in half compared to the peak. The official government price is likely even lower, around 0.9 million (9 lakhs)."

While the Department of Agriculture and relevant ministries are taking steps to support agricultural production, farmers pointed out that it is crucial to time these interventions for when they are most effective.

U Aye Naing, a paddy farmer from Bogale Township, explained to CNI News that fuel consumption is much higher during the harvest than during the planting season. During planting, fuel usage is only about 2 to 3 gallons per acre.

A farmer plowing a field.

"Prices have indeed fallen. The fuel used for harvesters is now only about 1.5 million kyats per barrel. Previously, premium diesel was around 3 million per barrel. Diesel needs for planting aren't as high as for harvesting. For example, a harvester requires about 5 to 6 barrels of diesel for 100 acres. During the planting season, we use simple single-cylinder engines, so fuel consumption is at most 2 or 3 gallons per acre."

Farmers mentioned that while monsoon paddy growers do not need fertilizer immediately, it is necessary for the government to ensure that prices are not hiked up when the demand arises.

Currently, the Department of Agriculture is reportedly supporting farmers by providing loans, conducting research, and holding discussions to facilitate the planting season.

CNI News

May 13, 2026

Military and political observers are analyzing how negotiations between the government and Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) can be effectively conducted, given the current political and military landscape under the government led by President U Min Aung Hlaing.

Currently, intense fighting is occurring between the Myanmar military and various armed groups, leaving the peace process in a state where it cannot be implemented. Recently, according to the 7 EAO Alliance, the National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) sent invitation letters to the NCA signatories and individuals who participated in the original signing of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) to engage in peace talks.

U Khun Sai, a veteran of the peace process, told CNI News that to achieve peace, an informal dialogue must first be initiated to reach a common consensus. He suggested that the roadmap used during the 2011 peace process could be reused with some adjustments.

"To negotiate now, we should return to the model we started in 2011, though we'll need to refine it. In 2011, when the government invited EAOs to Nay Pyi Taw, they didn't go. Instead, representatives met at the Thai border. They started with informal talks. Once trust was established, they moved inside the country to sign bilateral ceasefire agreements. After that, they agreed to engage in political dialogue."

Armed groups during a discussion.

U Khun Sai added that EAOs then collectively drafted their common positions and desires to present to the government. The government then negotiated based on those principles, eventually leading to the NCA. He noted that while details may differ today because "times have completely changed," the priority remains for all EAOs to meet and establish a shared position through informal talks.

Between 2011 and 2012, under President U Thein Sein’s administration, state-level and union-level bilateral ceasefire agreements were signed with 14 ethnic armed groups. Discussions for the NCA began in 2013, and a draft was finalized in August 2015.

October 15, 2015: The NCA was signed by the KNU, RCSS, ALP, DKBA, KNU/KNLA-PC, PNLO, CNF, and ABSDF.

February 13, 2018: The NMSP and LDU joined the agreement.

A political analyst told CNI News that the government should approach peace talks by grounding them in the Federal System that ethnic groups accept. He criticized the current approach as being "un-federal" in practice.

"They say they accept a Democratic Federal System, but their practical demands and views don't align with federalism; they look more like the framework of the 2008 Constitution. For example, in a federal country, the military must be composed of all ethnic groups and its duty must be to defend against external threats."

President U Min Aung Hlaing and the former Chairman of the KNU.

The analyst pointed out that starting negotiations by demanding to return to pre-2023 military positions creates a deadlock. Instead, he suggested: Discussing how to build a single Union Army that includes everyone.

Focusing on how to share power and responsibilities.

Addressing the Self-Determination and Federalism that groups like the KIA and AA are striving for.

The analyst further stated that agreements can only be reached after first clarifying the stance on federalism.

"The problem is whether the federal system is truly accepted. Groups that signed the NCA have stated they accept it. The KIA also has an accepting stance. However, we need to clarify whether the AA accepts 'Federalism,' as they have been using the term 'Confederation.' That must be discussed first."

Political observers conclude that unless the root causes of the conflict—such as political convictions, historical backgrounds, and ideological disputes—are addressed, the peace process will remain ineffective.

CNI News

May 12, 2026

Questions have emerged within domestic and international political circles regarding why ASEAN is currently pushing for the release of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in the current Myanmar political landscape.

Philippine President Marcos Jr., who is currently serving as the ASEAN Alternate Chair, stated that the release of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is a primary point of negotiation between ASEAN and Naypyidaw, and that ASEAN’s stance on this matter remains unchanged.

Some political analysts suggest that ASEAN's primary desire for her release is based on the belief that it is the key to building the bloc’s prestige and effectiveness in resolving the Myanmar issue, implementing political reconciliation within the country, and maintaining regional stability.

Political analyst U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News that he views ASEAN’s emphasis on this issue as being linked to how politically "open" the country is.

"ASEAN views these as political matters. Ordinarily, various charges have been leveled against DASSK here to justify her imprisonment. Since ASEAN views this as a political issue, they are calling for her release. And it’s true—whether she is released or not is directly proportional to how politically open this country is. That is why I believe ASEAN is making this a priority," he said.

Philippine President Marcos Jr.

He continued, "By releasing DASSK, the current government can demonstrate that they are making a certain degree of concession. It would be seen as a sign that they are ready to conduct politics openly again. Only then will the international diplomatic and economic sanctions be eased, and only then can we return to being a 'normal' country. I believe her release is vital because it hinges on these factors."

Political circles also point out that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is indispensable for the success of ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus—the core framework for solving the Myanmar crisis—and is a pivotal point in negotiations with the government. They argue that her release could further alleviate the political crisis and open a path for dialogue.

However, political analyst Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News that one cannot guarantee that everything will calm down just because she is released, and there is no reason to make such a guarantee.

President U Min Aung Hlaing and the Thai Foreign Minister

"She was the top leader of the government that was ousted during the 2021 power takeover. Furthermore, she is a 'Democracy Icon' as defined by the West. Since they traditionally do not accept such takeovers, they have been calling for her release for five years. What is certain is that when a firm democratic government emerges, things become complicated. ASEAN has found itself in a 'stuck' position. Moreover, when this side [the military government] doesn't follow a single word ASEAN says, they [ASEAN] act out of embarrassment. This is the main point. They don't truly understand the internal situation," Dr. Aye Maung said.

He added, "Whether such a release would aid national reconciliation is something for those currently in charge—the government—to evaluate. What if, instead of reconciliation, it leads to further instigation and agitation? The reality is that the country is currently fragmented. There is no way to guarantee, nor any reason to guarantee, that everything will become peaceful just because Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is released."

While ASEAN has yet to reach a consensus on recognizing the government in Naypyidaw, ASEAN’s standing position remains to pressure for the unconditional release of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and for permission to meet with her.

CNI News

May 12, 2026

Local residents have stated that commodity prices in the region will only decrease and the flow of goods regain momentum if the government can provide full security for the Mandalay–Indaw–Myitkyina route.

The road connecting Mandalay, Thabeikkyin, Madaya, Tagaung, Tigyaing, Indaw, Mawlu, Nantsiaung, Mohnyin, Mogaung, and Myitkyina was previously controlled by KIA and PDF forces. This control halted the flow of goods, forcing the public to face the burden of exorbitantly high commodity prices.

Following military operations lasting over one year and three months, the Myanmar military regained control of the Mandalay–Indaw–Myitkyina route and reopened it on May 6, 2026.

However, Myitkyina residents point out that if the entire route is not fully secured, it will not alleviate the rising prices currently faced by the public. Khun Tu, a resident of Myitkyina, told CNI News that the military’s efforts to control the road would be more effective if carried out in cooperation with the local population.

"Even though they have recaptured the towns along this route, if they cannot control the entire stretch of the road, we might be able to travel, but we will still have to pay 'taxes' [to various armed groups]. If taxes are still being collected, I don't think commodity prices will drop significantly. Once they dominate this territory, they must provide full security along the entire road for things to truly improve. If they cooperate with the public, the locals know best where the PDFs and enemies are hiding. Therefore, I think it would be successful if they work together with the people."

 Military forces (Myanmar Tatmadaw) taking control of the Mandalay–Indaw–Myitkyina route.

Currently, although the Mandalay–Indaw–Myitkyina road has been reopened, it is reported that mainly private passenger cars are using it rather than cargo trucks, as most transporters are still using the Mandalay–Shwebo–Myitkyina route. Authorities have encouraged the public and traders to utilize the Mandalay–Indaw–Myitkyina route instead of the Shwebo alternative.

U Kun Gawng Awng Kham, a Kachin political analyst, told CNI News that whichever group controls and opens the road must take responsibility for the security of the traveling public.

"Regardless of who is in control, we want this highway to be open. If it is open, it needs to function smoothly. No matter which side opens it, if there are constant inspections, the public will face difficulties. What we need is for the roads to open normally. Regarding security, when the PDFs and allied forces were in control, they took charge of security; now that the military is moving to reopen these sections, the relevant troops must take responsibility to keep it open."

 Military forces (Myanmar Tatmadaw) taking control of the Mandalay–Indaw–Myitkyina route.

When the route was previously under the control of revolutionary forces, traveling from Mandalay to Myitkyina took between four to six days, and at times, hundreds of vehicles were stranded.

Locals hope that if the newly reopened Mandalay–Indaw–Myitkyina route becomes safe and convenient, the journey between the two cities could be completed in a single day, which would lead to a moderate decrease in commodity prices in Myitkyina and surrounding areas.

Furthermore, Myitkyina residents added that if the Mandalay–Myitkyina railway could be reopened in addition to the highway, it would be even more beneficial for the flow of goods and general transportation.

CNI News

May 12, 2026

In the current political and military landscape under the government led by President Min Aung Hlaing, military and political analysts are questioning whether effectively handling the KIA (Kachin Independence Army) would simultaneously allow for the control of the AA (Arakan Army).

Analysts point out that the KIA is striving for liberation across the northwestern regions of Myanmar, including Kachin State, Sagaing Region, Chin State, and Rakhine State. Furthermore, because the KIA and AA are staunch military allies built on shared political objectives, experts are weighing whether the AA can be contained simply by controlling the KIA.

Political analyst Dr. Aung Myo told CNI News that while controlling the KIA might have a partial impact on cutting off the AA, it would not lead to total control, and that each group must be handled individually.

"The idea that the government can control the AA just by handling the KIA sounds plausible, but it isn’t entirely true. This perspective looks at it only from a logistics and supply chain side. In reality, they are separate. You have to resolve the AA issue independently. The assumption that if the KIA falls, the AA falls, is wrong. It should be a 'Split Type' approach—dealing with them separately.

Leaders of the Arakan Army (AA).

Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) should never be allowed to negotiate as a collective bloc. Former President U Thein Sein fell into a trap by allowing all-inclusive group negotiations because the KIA pushed for it. We must go with a 'Split' strategy. Although they are linked through Chin State and Upper Sagaing, the KIA and AA are very different in terms of history and tradition. The AA is primarily Buddhist-based, while the KIA is Baptist. Their cultures are distinct. While stabilizing the KIA might partially impact the AA by cutting off certain links, they are not a single entity. There are specific ways to handle them individually."

The Arakan Army (AA) was formed in April 2009. At the start of its revolution, it established a foothold in Paletwa Township, Chin State, before penetrating into Rakhine State. Currently, the AA operates independently in Rakhine and is also a member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance (MNDAA-AA-TNLA) active in Northern Shan State. Additionally, the AA collaborates with local armed groups in Sagaing, Magway, and Ayeyarwady Regions, as well as Chin State.

Following a temporary ceasefire in November 2022, fighting resumed between the Myanmar military and the AA in November 2023, and military tensions remain high to this day.

Dr. Kyaw Swe, a Pyithu Hluttaw representative from the National Unity Party (NUP), suggested to CNI that because the AA relies heavily on the KIA for arms and ammunition, controlling the KIA could significantly weaken the AA.

KIA officials with former Chinese Special Envoy Sun Guoxiang.

"The AA uses weapons almost entirely provided by the KIA. From training grounds to officer-level training, the KIA provides it all. Therefore, if the KIA can be properly controlled, the AA’s strength will diminish, and they might cooperate with the government again. Currently, the AA feels empowered because of KIA supplies, which is why they are demanding a 'Confederation' status. If the KIA is restrained, the AA will no longer be a major factor to worry about.

China already holds the specific methods needed to control the KIA to achieve G-to-G (Government to Government) results. If we follow those methods precisely, it will be good for Myanmar. The KIA’s leverage over us will decrease, and as their pressure fades, so will the AA’s strength. We believe this is the path toward long-term peace in Myanmar."

AA Commander-in-Chief Major General Twan Mrat Naing has previously stated that they will fight for a status for the Rakhine people that is not lower than a "Confederation."

During the 2021 "Spring Revolution" period, the KIA grew even stronger than before, providing arms, ammunition, military training, and sanctuary to revolutionary forces, while also supporting joint operations in Sagaing Region and Kachin State.