CNI News
May 1, 2026

A delegation led by the Indian Chief of the Naval Staff, Admiral Dinesh Kumar Tripathi (PVSM, AVSM, NM), arrived in Myanmar today, May 1, 2026.

The goodwill delegation is scheduled to stay in Myanmar until May 6. During the visit, they will continue to carry out naval friendship programs and activities between the two countries.

CNI News

May 1, 2026

Among the numerous armed groups existing in Myanmar, questions have emerged among military and political analysts regarding the criteria used by the government and the military (Tatmadaw) to designate a group as an Ethnic Armed Organization (EAO).

Colonel Khun Okkar, Chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S)—a signatory of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA)—told CNI News that theoretically, there are four fundamental pillars required to be considered an EAO.

"Technically, these principles exist, though they aren't explicitly codified," he stated. "First, an EAO must represent a specific population—for example, the Pa-O, Palaung, or Lahu people. Second, there must be a territory where that population resides, regardless of size. Third, there must be a political organization leading the welfare of that population. Fourth, that political organization must lead an armed wing under its command. Having an armed force, political leadership, territory, and a population are the four basics. Without these, a group cannot be listed as an EAO or ERO (Ethnic Revolutionary Organization)."

Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai-Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party, suggested that the government likely has its own specific standards. He noted that if an organization possesses strong political goals and institutional strength, it eventually gains recognition. 

He added that the government likely has specific frameworks for how such groups operate and fit into official categories.

The signing of the NCA during U Thein Sein's era.

Revolutionary forces pointed out that while armed conflict has persisted in the states since independence in 1948, the population in central Myanmar remained relatively stable and showed little interest in ending these conflicts until the political shift following February 1, 2021. Since then, the central mainland population has gained a deeper understanding of the nature of armed conflict.

The landscape of armed organizations is currently divided into several categories based on their relationship with the NCA:

NCA Signatories: Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA), KNU/KNLA Peace Council (KNU/KNLA-PC), Arakan Liberation Party (ALP), Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO), New Mon State Party (NMSP), Chin National Front (CNF), All Burma Students' Democratic Front (ABSDF), Lahu Democratic Union (LDU),
Karen National Union (KNU).

Note: KNU, CNF, and ABSDF have declared the NCA void and withdrawn. LDU, NMSP, PNLO, and ALP have split into factions—those favoring the NCA and those wishing to withdraw.

Non-NCA Signatories (Major Groups):United Wa State Army (UWSA), National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA-Mongla), Shan State Progress Party (SSPP), Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), Arakkha Army (AA), Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP).

A peace ceremony held during the U Thein Sein administration.

Groups Not Officially Recognized as EAOs by the Government:

Despite being ethnic-based armed groups, the following are not yet officially recognized as EAOs by the government/military:

Shanni State Army (SNA/SNUC), Kuki National Army (KNA/KNO), Zomi Revolutionary Army (ZRA/ZRO), Eastern Naga National Defense Army (ENDA/ENNO), NSCN-K (Ang Mai and Yung Aung factions), Arakan National Council (ANC).

Political analyst Dr. Aung Myo told CNI that he hasn't heard of formal "criteria," arguing that the term was a diplomatic concession.

"I haven't heard of specific standards. Historically, ethnic groups taking up arms were called 'rebels' or 'insurgents.' During President U Thein Sein's administration, they requested not to be called 'rebels,' so the term EAO was chosen because it sounded better. No government would create a formal 'checklist' to become an EAO, as that would look like an invitation to rebel. It was simply a terminology change to facilitate dialogue," Dr. Aung Myo explained.

The term EAOs became officially and widely used in peace processes during the U Thein Sein administration (2011–2016).

Currently, while President U Min Aung Hlaing's government has invited armed groups for peace talks, military and political analysts note that there is still no clear stance on whether ethnic armed groups outside the NCA framework will be allowed to participate.

CNI News

May 1, 2026

Achieving "all-inclusiveness" in the peace process is easy to talk about but difficult to implement in practice, Colonel Khun Okkar, Chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), told CNI News.

Currently, the government led by President U Min Aung Hlaing has included peace dialogue as part of its "First 100-Day Plan." On April 21, 2026, President U Min Aung Hlaing invited armed organizations—including those that have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), those that have not yet signed, and groups like the KNU, CNF, and ABSDF (who signed the NCA but have not held talks between 2021 and 2025)—to join peace negotiations by July 31.

Colonel Khun Okkar noted that while the concept of all-inclusive dialogue is simple in words, the reality of execution is fraught with challenges.

"We will only know the reality once we start. Furthermore, we have to distinguish between groups; their histories and origins are different," he said. "An organization like the KNU, which has been fighting for 70 years, cannot be equated with a PDF group that has been fighting for 4 or 5 years. Ethnic organizations have a specific 'legitimacy'—they have representative territory, a representative population, a political party structure, an armed wing, and a clear policy roadmap. Groups that meet these criteria will be invited to negotiate with dignity as equals. However, for groups that emerged in the last 4 or 5 years, if you measure them by those standards, they are likely to be lacking in one area or another. That is why 'all-inclusiveness' is easy to say but hard to do. If we can get 80% participation, that would be quite sufficient. The current administration must strive to reach that 80% mark."

A display of the peace process record at an NCA anniversary ceremony.

There is also debate regarding whether the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA) and the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) are included in the peace invitation issued by the government. Colonel Khun Okkar recalled that the Naga group (NSCN) participated during President U Thein Sein's era but did not accept the concept of federalism.

"The Naga group joined the discussions with us before, but they did not accept the federal principle. Our country is moving toward a federal model, but they didn't agree. Their policy is to unite the Nagas on the Indian side and the Myanmar side to establish an independent Naga State. Because of this, while they participated in NCA negotiations, they walked out when we discussed the federal system and did not sign the agreement. If backgrounds, policies, and political goals differ, some will not join an 'all-inclusive' peace talk. 'All-inclusiveness' is a policy term; in practice, if 75% to 80% participate, it works. That’s how I calculate it," he explained.

Military and political observers point out that to achieve an inclusive peace process in Myanmar, trust must be rebuilt. They emphasize that accountability and responsibility are essential; without them, a successful peace process is unlikely.

The National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) meeting with NCA signatories.

Colonel Khun Okkar added that the journey to peace remains long, estimating that it could take at least seven years to finalize peace negotiations.

"Peace is still a long way off. By nature, peace is only achieved when political dialogues lead to political agreements. Before we talk about peace, we must see if political dialogues even happen. To get to political dialogue, we must start with preliminary ceasefire talks and trust-building. Once trust is built, conflicts and hostilities must be reduced step-by-step. Only then can we move to the political dialogue table. A firm peace is only possible when a political dialogue is properly structured for the country’s future, policies are agreed upon, and there are solid guarantees from neighbors like China and India, as well as ASEAN. This will take a long time. It won’t happen in a year or two. 100 days is just the beginning. The conflict has lasted 70 years; it will take at least 7 years to conclude the political negotiations."

Analysts further suggest that the peace process would benefit from removing pre-determined conditions. 

They noted that the current government may face significantly more challenges than the U Thein Sein administration did during its peace efforts.

CNI News

April 30, 2026

On April 30, 2026, an official announcement was released from Naypyidaw stating that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, who served as the State Counsellor during the NLD government, has been moved from Naypyidaw Prison to house arrest.

The statement declared that the President—to mark Kasun Full Moon Buddha Day (falling on the full moon of Kasun, 1388 ME), out of humanitarian considerations, and as a gesture of the State's goodwill—has modified the remaining sentence for Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.

Under Section 541, Sub-section (1) of the Code of Criminal Procedure, she has been transferred from Naypyidaw Prison to serve the remainder of her sentence at a designated residence.

CNI News

April 29, 2026

The Central Government (or Union Government) must provide sufficient rights to ethnic groups to ensure they do not wish to secede from the Union, said Dr. Kyaw Swe, a Pyithu Hluttaw representative from the National Unity Party (NUP), in an interview with CNI News.

"Not all ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) in Myanmar are fighting to secede. They took up arms because they haven't fully received their ethnic rights, believing that only armed struggle could achieve their demands. Later, due to the personal interests of certain leaders, we see that they haven't been able to reach their original goals for their people. Consequently, these organizations don't always represent the collective voice of all ethnic people," he said.

He continued, "It is essential that no ethnic group secedes from the current map of Myanmar for the Union to remain intact. On the other hand, the Central or Union Government needs to grant rights so that they don't want to secede. I want to see a shift toward systematic negotiation. To put it simply, abandoning the armed struggle and pursuing demands through political channels is better for the long term."

U Min Aung Hlaing meeting with leaders of armed groups during his tenure as Commander-in-Chief.

Current President U Min Aung Hlaing previously stated—during his tenure as Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission—that the biggest challenge during periods of political instability is the potential for states to pursue secession.

Some EAOs have expressed intentions to achieve "Confederation" status, which goes beyond federalism, and have voiced readiness to establish independent nations should Myanmar collapse.

Under the 1947 Panglong Agreement, the Shan and Kayah States were granted the right to secede after ten years. Although this never materialized, it became a primary root of the ongoing conflict. Military and political analysts point out that the main reason ethnic groups are reluctant to sign non-secession agreements is a lack of trust in whether the Central Government or the Military will guarantee a genuine Federal Democracy.

Meanwhile, the "Wa" (UWSA) and "Mong La" (NDAA) regions, which have obtained self-administered status, frequently declare they will not secede from the Union.

Political analyst Dr. M. Kawn La told CNI News that if China allowed the "Wa" region to secede from Myanmar, it would damage China's international reputation. He noted that China is aware of similar issues in Tibet and Xinjiang, so it would not allow the "Wa" to break away. Furthermore, the "Wa" themselves have no need to secede because the opportunities they currently enjoy are satisfactory.

Attendees at an ethnic armed organizations' conference.

"They (the Wa) have received full self-autonomy. Frankly, it’s not even a federal model; it’s more of a confederation. However, it’s not a complete confederacy because foreign relations remain under the Union of Myanmar. But the currency system and the Central Government’s administration—specifically the Ministry of Home Affairs—cannot enter the Wa region. They function as a truly self-autonomous state, with only foreign affairs adapted to Myanmar," Dr. M. Kawn La explained.

He added, "Looking at the political system they have, they are satisfied and have no reason to secede. Seceding would only cause them more problems. China wouldn't allow it because it would look like they instigated it, which would hurt them diplomatically regarding Tibet and Xinjiang. The Wa themselves don't need to do it. The political opportunities they have are unlike any other region in the Union. Other ethnic groups should focus on achieving political results step-by-step by linking regional interests with national interests."

Analysts suggest that armed conflicts could be resolved if the following steps are taken: Drafting a federal constitution that offers guarantees and incentives so ethnic groups do not feel the need to secede. Building mutual trust through inclusive dialogues. Negotiating a Federal Army model that guarantees the security of ethnic people.

Furthermore, observers warn that discrimination by the government and military against ethnic groups, or a hesitation to grant them recognition, could prolong the war. Simultaneously, they noted that ethnic armed groups should only make demands that are fair and realistic.

CNI News

April 29, 2026

Lawmakers are urging the government to listen to the public and abolish the "Even/Odd" license plate driving restrictions, which were implemented under the pretext of conserving fuel in Myanmar.

On March 3, the National Defense and Security Council announced that, starting March 7, 2026, motor vehicles and motorcycles must be driven on alternating days based on whether their license plates end in an even or odd digit to reduce fuel consumption.

The Myanmar Police Force stated that they are utilizing a "One Stop Service" system to inspect and take action against those violating these restrictions.

U Hla Swe, a Pyithu Hluttaw representative from the USDP party, told CNI News that the system is causing significant hardship for the middle class and should be revoked.

"I haven’t submitted a formal motion yet, and I don't know if others have. In developed countries where even/odd systems are used, there are alternatives—subways, efficient buses, or taxis that arrive instantly. In our country, we have nothing else. If you can’t drive your car, you’re in trouble," U Hla Swe said.

He further noted that owning even one car is a struggle for most, and the price of electric vehicles (EVs) in Myanmar—ranging from 700 to 800 lakhs compared to 70–80 lakhs abroad—makes them inaccessible. "The sooner this is relaxed, the better," he added.

The official announcement regarding the even/odd driving restrictions.

U Sai Tun Lin, a Pyithu Hluttaw representative from the SNDP party, expressed concern over reports of extortion and the lack of empathy for emergencies.

"We are hearing reports of people being fined or extorted even when traveling for life-or-death health emergencies. This shouldn't be happening. If there is a valid reason or documentation for an emergency, there should be an exemption. I plan to discuss this in Parliament," he told CNI.

The public and business owners have pointed out that the fuel crisis is already difficult enough, but the even/odd system is now actively harming: Production and Manufacturing, Hotel and Tourism, General Business Operations, Penalties and Controversy.

Authorities conducting inspections for compliance with the even/odd system.

Initially, authorities announced that starting March 14, violators could face one month in prison, a 20,000 Kyat fine, or both under Section 188. Following widespread criticism, the prison sentence was dropped in favor of a 30,000 Kyat fine.

However, the enforcement process has raised legal questions. Citizens have noted that while official arrests are supposed to be conducted by a joint task force, in practice, traffic police are often operating alone, leading to concerns regarding the legality of the crackdowns.

CNI News

April 29, 2026

While the Myanmar government has officially declared the Myawaddy Asia Highway—a vital artery for Thai-Myanmar border trade—open, reports indicate that cargo trucks are still unable to traverse the route for commercial purposes.

Thai authorities are reportedly preparing to reopen the Myawaddy-Mae Sot No. 2 Friendship Bridge, a cornerstone of bilateral trade. However, on the Myanmar side, while the Myawaddy-Kawkareik Asia Highway has been declared open, border trade operations remain stalled.

A primary concern preventing the full resumption of trade is a potential deadlock between the Myanmar government and the Karen National Union (KNU). Fears are mounting that conflict could reignite along the route if the two sides cannot reach an agreement regarding the KNU’s demand for a 10% tax share on border trade.

Border traders, who have seen their businesses crippled for nearly two years, argue that the priority should be the resumption of trade and access to the Asia Highway, even if it means paying taxes to multiple parties. U Hla Thaung, an onion trader, shared his perspective with CNI News.

"When the military opens the road, the armed groups often say, 'The military only opened the areas they control; it doesn't include ours.' This makes traders afraid to move. Traders eventually negotiated at the border and found that they could proceed if they paid taxes to the armed groups. While the government opens the road, they might not want to officially permit paying taxes to these groups. But for a trader, like oil looking for a hole to seep through, we just want a way out. The main thing is simply to get the road open," he said.

The Myawaddy-Kawkareik Asia Highway.

Thai authorities are currently making the necessary preparations to reopen the No. 2 Friendship Bridge, and cargo trucks are reportedly lined up on the Mae Sot side, ready to resume trade as soon as the gates open.

U Thant Zin Tun, Vice Chairman of the Myanmar Corn Industrial Association, told CNI News that since the Myawaddy-Asia Highway was closed, exports have been diverted through the Yangon-Kawthaung-Ranong sea route. He noted that reopening the Myawaddy border would provide traders with two shipping options, significantly speeding up trade.

"Travel and transport might not be perfectly smooth yet because the situation on the ground isn't fully clear. There are corn-related groups in Karen State as well. Once the road truly opens, corn exports will start flowing gradually. They say the roads are opening and the bridge will open; if that happens, we will have two choices: the sea route we are currently using and the reopened land route," he explained.

The reopening of the Myawaddy border trade is expected to boost exports of domestic agricultural products, including corn, chili, and onions, while also facilitating more imports. This increase in supply is anticipated to lead to a moderate decrease in domestic commodity prices.

Leaders of the KNU/KNLA-PC and DKBA seen alongside a KIA leader.

During the two-plus years the Myawaddy-Kawkareik Asia Highway was closed, traders relied on alternative mountain routes through the Dawna Range—such as the "Old Road," Hto Kaw Koe, Kyat U Taung, and 108 routes—which are controlled by Karen armed groups. Traders had to pay taxes to these groups to move their goods.

Currently, the government has opened the Asia Highway section where Karen armed groups are not present, while simultaneously banning travel on the alternative mountain routes that traders previously utilized.

The Myawaddy-Kawkareik Asia Highway is located within Karen State, a region home to various armed organizations, including the KNU, PDF, DKBA, KNU/KNLA-PC, KTA, BGF, and KNA.

CNI News

April 29, 2026

Following the recent diplomatic talks between China and Myanmar, the situation regarding ethnic armed conflicts in Northern Shan State is likely to see significant improvement, according to Colonel Khun Okkar, Chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), an NCA signatory.

On April 25, 2026, President U Min Aung Hlaing and Chinese Foreign Minister Mr. Wang Yi met for discussions in Nay Pyi Taw.

During the meeting, they discussed China's steadfast support for Myanmar's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and stability. They also touched upon China’s backing of national stability, ethnic reconciliation, and the implementation of social harmony within the country.

Colonel Khun Okkar told CNI News that following this dialogue, the armed conflict in Northern Shan State is expected to improve substantially due to Chinese pressure, which could lead to the reopening of economic trade routes.

"Essentially, China will act to protect its interests and maintain the current situation. They arrived to demonstrate their recognition of the political framework—the parliament resulting from the election, President U Min Aung Hlaing, and his government. By granting this recognition, it is assumed they will move step-by-step toward their desired goals, such as the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). Therefore, the trade routes in Northern Shan are expected to improve," Colonel Khun Okkar stated.

Ethnic armed personnel in Northern Shan State.

He further noted that because China intends to protect its economic interests in Northern Shan State, a resurgence of major armed conflict is unlikely, leading to a more secure environment.

"Furthermore, new forms of cooperation are emerging. For instance, the TNLA’s recognition of President U Min Aung Hlaing’s government marks a significant political shift—moving from anti-dictatorship stances to acknowledging the current administration. It seems everyone in the north will follow this tone due to Chinese influence. While things won't get better overnight, the conflict will likely subside significantly, except perhaps in Kachin State, where conflict remains," he added.

The Chinese government wields significant influence over the "Wa" (UWSA) and the Three Brotherhood Alliance (AA-TNLA-MNDAA) operating in Northern Shan State, possessing the power to control or utilize them as needed.

Political analyst Dr. Aung Myo told CNI News that following these talks, economic cooperation is expected to increase, and there could be pivotal shifts regarding internal insurgencies.

 Leaders of the UWSA and MNDAA.

"Firstly, there will likely be economic cooperation. Secondly, we might see major turning points in the ongoing internal unrest. Take the recent shifts with the TNLA and MNDAA, for example. The TNLA has officially declared support for the current military-backed government, essentially reversing its previous course. We cannot rule out more such developments. For example, the MNDAA might clear areas based on China's wishes to prepare for a future landscape. Since the MNDAA and China share ethnic ties and China has more influence over the MNDAA and may support them, such 'clearing' operations are possible," Dr. Aung Myo explained.

Major Chinese investment projects in Myanmar include the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone, the Myitsone Dam, elevated railways, the Kanpiketee Economic Cooperation Zone, the Muse-Mandalay electric railway, the Shweli-Mandalay-Kyaukphyu expressway, and various bilateral trade routes.

Military and political observers point out that in the upcoming political and military landscape, China is likely to continue pushing groups like the Wa, Mong La, and Kokang toward the peace table. They suggest that Myanmar remains in a position of dependency on China, and that a new government is likely to be one that can cooperate strategically with its neighbor.

CNI News

April 29, 2026

Daw Saw Mra Yar Zar Lin, Chairperson of the Arakan Liberation Party (ALP), told CNI News that it would be best if the government could present a clear framework for how negotiations will proceed when inviting armed groups to peace talks.

She stated: "It would be ideal if they could present a specific model for how the discussions will take place. If they have set agendas, presenting those as well would be very beneficial. One thing I’ve noticed is that there are currently no rigid restrictions; there seems to be an opening for transparent discussion. It will start with informal talks. These informal meetings can help build mutual trust. Right now, there is a lot of anger and pride on all sides due to the ongoing fighting. Because of this conflict, we must start with informal meetings. We need to define how to begin. When we negotiate, there are basic principles, such as building the nation in accordance with the outcomes of the political dialogue. This means building a Union based on democracy and federalism. Therefore, it is crucial for the negotiating partners to engage effectively to produce good results."

Currently, the government led by President U Min Aung Hlaing has included peace and dialogue as a key component of its "100-Day Plan."

From April 20 to July 31 (within the 100-day window), all groups—including PDFs, ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) that have signed the NCA, and those that have not yet signed—have been invited to participate in peace talks.

The NCA signing ceremony in progress.

There are varying assessments on the process: some argue that peace and a ceasefire are different and that a ceasefire should be established first, while others believe both should be pursued simultaneously. Military and political analysts also suggest that while some ethnic armed groups may not yet be ready for a full peace process, they may agree to a ceasefire.

Dr. Kyaw Swe, a Pyithu Hluttaw representative from the National Unity Party (NUP), told CNI News that he believes all armed groups will likely implement a ceasefire as a first step.

He said: "Peace and a ceasefire are not the same. Peace allows for regional development to take place. A ceasefire, in the past, has often been like a break for both sides to replenish their forces. However, stopping the fighting as soon as possible is best. If a ceasefire is achieved first, the people will start to feel a sense of relief; it’s the first step. To reach a point where both sides can accept a resolution for peace, it currently seems to require a third-party mediator. A ceasefire from just one side isn't enough for lasting peace. We will reach the 'peace stage' only with strong support or conflict resolution efforts from a neutral intermediary. But stopping the fire is the priority. We welcome the move toward a ceasefire and believe all armed groups will start implementing it first."

 The NCA signing ceremony in progress.

On April 11, 2026, the government announced the reconstitution of the National Solidarity and Peacemaking Central Committee (NSPCC), the National Solidarity and Peace-making Working Committee (NSPWC), and the National Solidarity and Peace-making Negotiation Committee (NSPNC).

According to the NCA treaty, the Union Peacemaking Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC) is supposed to be composed of 16 representatives from the Government, Parliament, and Military; 16 from NCA-signatory EAOs; and 16 from political party blocs.

Military and political analysts pointed out that because the parliamentary sector is missing in the newly reformed NSPCC, NSPWC, and NSPNC, there could be significant difficulties regarding constitutional amendments. They noted that in the current Myanmar political landscape, the military's influence and involvement appear set to continue.