CNI News
17 May 2025

Since the election can only be conducted by the Election Commission, which is delegated authority by the National Defense and Security Council (NDSC), if the SAC extends the state of emergency for another six months, it means that the election will not take place, People's Party (PP) Chairman U Ko Ko Gyi told CNI News.

The election will be held by the end of this year (2025), and international community supports holding elections, said  the SAC's information team leader, Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun, told the media on May 10, 2025, after returning from a trip to Russia, adding that he wanted the people to help and support in order to hold elections peacefully.

If the election is to be held in December, the SAC must hand over power to the NDSC when the current six-month term expires. Otherwise, if the term is extended, the election in December will not take place, the People's Party (PP) Chairman U Ko Ko Gyi told CNI News.

“In order to hold an election in December, the SAC must hand over power to the NDSC without extending the current six-month period. After handing over power to the NDSC, the NDSC must hold elections within six months, before February 1. So, if the SAC hands over power to the NDSC on July 31, elections will be held for sure.”he said.

It is estimated that the SAC will hand over power to the NDSC on July 31. If the SAC is extended, it will mean that elections will not be held in December because the SAC cannot conduct elections. 

While the NDSC meeting was being held

Only the government, the Election Commission, which is delegated by the NDSC, can do so. So, if the SAC extends its tenure, elections will not be held in December. "I don't think the SAC will extend its tenure," he said.

On February 1, 2021, the Myanmar military ousted the National League for Democracy (NLD) government and declared a state of emergency, accusing it of attempting to form a government without resolving the 2020 general election voter list dispute. 

The SAC was extended for a 7th six-month period under Section-425 of the Constitution at the National Defense and Security Council meeting held on January 31, 2025.

It remains to be seen whether the NDSC will change its name and hold elections after the SAC hands over power to the NDSC, or hand over power back to the SAC and allow it to hold the election, the National Democratic Force Party (NDF) Vice Chairman U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News.

While political parties were meeting with the SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing

“The SAC will be extended on July 31. If the election is held without an extension, the SAC will have to hand over power to the NDSC according to the constitution. Since the NDSC will have to conduct the election, I think the NDSC will also change its name. For example, change the name from SAC to something else, or is the NDSC going to hand over power back to the SAC so that the SAC can lead the election in the best possible way? This is the NDSC's prerogative. We will know how the NDSC will do it by July 31st," he said.

SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has said that elections will be held in Myanmar between December 2025 and January 2026. 

Therefore, the six-month extension of the state of emergency will expire on July 31, 2025, and military and political analysts have pointed out that the possibility of an election can be predicted by looking at whether or not the extension will be extended.

The National Unity Government (NUG), the National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC), some ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), the People's Defense Force (PDF), and democracy activists, who are fighting to overthrow the SAC and the Myanmar military, have announced that they will disrupt the upcoming elections that will be held by the SAC.

CNI News

16 May 2025

While armed conflicts are growing and there are situations in which efforts can be made to change the borders of States and Regions and to secede, more people want to keep the current border demarcation, according to a survey released by the  Blue Shirt Initiative. 

The Blue Shirt Initiative conducted a survey between March 21 and 25, 2025, asking people whether they would like to keep state and region borders as they are, whether they should allow the formation of new states and regions, and whether they would accept or reject secession.

The survey was conducted in 235 townships across 14 states and regions, with 3,185 respondents, including 1,840 responses via Survey Link, 1,242 face-to-face interviews, and 72 responses via telephone, the Blue Shirt Initiative reported. 

Then, 46 percent of respondents nationwide said they wanted to keep the state and region boundaries as they are now, 33 percent nationwide said they wanted to allow the formation of new states, and 22 percent said they did not know or did not want to answer.

While seeing the survey regarding whether secession should be allowed or not

On the same question, 42 percent of those in the states wanted to keep the status quo, 36 percent wanted to allow the formation of new states, and 21 percent did not know or did not want to answer. In the regions, 47 percent wanted to keep the status quo, 31 percent wanted to allow the formation of new states, and 21 percent did not know or did not want to answer.

Similarly, in Yangon, 46 percent want to keep the borders of Regions and States as they are, 31 percent want to allow the formation of new states, and 22 percent do not know or do not want to answer. In Sagaing and Magway Regions, 51 percent want to keep the borders of Regions and States as they are, 35 percent want to allow the formation of new states, and 14 percent do not know or do not want to answer.

When asked whether they would prefer to be allowed to secede from Myanmar or remain united as they are now, the Blue Shirt Initiative survey found that 47 percent of the country favored remaining united as they are now, 33 percent favored secession, and 20 percent did not know or did not want to answer.

Then, 40 percent of the States want to remain united as they are, 42 percent want to be allowed to secede, and 19 percent do not know or do not want to answer. Similarly, in the Regions, 49 percent said they should remain united as they are, 30 percent said they should be allowed to secede, and 21 percent said they didn't know or didn't want to answer.

An armed group

In Yangon, 44 percent said Regions and States should remain united as they are, 32 percent said secession should be allowed, and 24 percent said they didn't know or didn't want to answer. In Sagaing and Magway divisions, 55 percent said the country should remain united as it is, 31 percent said secession should be allowed, and 13 percent said they didn't know or didn't want to answer. 

In Sagaing and Magway Regions, 55 percent said the country should remain united as it is, 31 percent said secession should be allowed , and 13 percent said they didn't know or didn't want to answer.

Currently, fierce battles are taking place across Myanmar, both between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and armed groups, and between armed groups themselves. The conflicts have been triggered by different goals, including the redrawing of state and regional borders, secession, the creation of special autonomous regions, and the overthrow of the SAC and the Myanmar Tatmadaw.

CNI News

16 May 2025

Military and political analysts are currently analyzing what the military and political situation in the northern, southern, and western regions of Myanmar, where armed conflicts are occurring, might be like in 2025. 

there could be negotiations regarding the northern region and a similar pattern could emerge in the southern and western regions, the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S) Chairman Colonel Khun Okkar told CNI News, adding that he believed that the military and political situation would depend on the situation in the six months before the election.

“I think this year is a mix of good and bad. The northern groups, including the KIA, will negotiate and the locals will be a little more relaxed. When that happens, the south may become a little more tense. In the western Rakhine and Chin, there may be a different pattern. So it could be half good, half bad. That also depends on the SAC, which currently dominates the central region. The SAC leaders still have 6 to 7 months before the election to find a way in order to overcome the conflict. The political situation that will develop in the meantime will be decisive, I think." he said.

An armed group

Fierce battles are ongoing in Myanmar between EAOs/PDF and the Myanmar Tatmadaw. The AA-TNLA-MNDAA jointly launched Operation 1027 in northern Shan State on October 27, 2023, capturing almost the entire northern region of Shan State and the Northeast Command.

However, after talks between the MNDAA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw, the MNDAA had to hand over Lashio in northern Shan State to the Myanmar Tatmadaw. 

On the other hand, the KIA is engaging in battles for control of towns in Kachin State and Sagaing Region in collaboration with the PDF. 

Similarly, the AA has controlled 14 out of 17 townships in Rakhine State, including Paletwa town, Chin State, and is also fighting against the Myanmar military, in collaboration with local armed groups in Ayeyarwady, Magway, and Sagaing regions.

China can continue to implement the ceasefire as per its strategy, so the military and political situation depends on the ability of the revolutionary forces to act, China-Myanmar affairs analyst Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw told CNI News. 

While seeing the TNLA

"This depends on how much the revolutionary forces can do. It depends on how much the revolutionary forces can do. China will continue its ceasefire strategy. China has greatly assisted the development of the “Wa” region and Mong La because they are close to its country. In this way, China wants to show that if efforts can be made to make the country develop peacefully, any region can develop. We already know that the military council must be eliminated." she said.

China is trying to mediate and negotiate peace between the KIA-AA-TNLA-MNDAA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw, and the Myanmar Tatmadaw will meet with the TNLA again in August. There are also speculations that if talks with the TNLA are successful, talks with the KIA could be prioritized instead of the AA.

CNI News

16 May 2025

The proposal to draft a Federal Democratic Union Constitution by the 7 EAO Alliance that is made up of seven ethnic armed organizations  is raising questions about whether it is envisioning the emergence of a new constitution, not the 2008 constitution. 

The 7 EAO Alliance should clearly present their proposal of drafting a new constitution to the SAC, the Arakan Front Party (AFP) Chairman Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News.

"The SAC will need to be clearly informed whether the goal of the 7 EAO Alliance is to have a constitution based on federalism and democracy, or whether the 7 EAO aims to create a new constitution that is in line with federalism and democracy, since the 2008 Constitution does not provide these answers. A general election will be held by the National Defense and Security Council and it will hand over power to the elected government." he said.

While seeing the proposal of the 7 EAO Alliance

The 7 EAO Alliance convened a meeting on April 28-29, 2025, and proposed to the SAC to develop five points. The five proposals are: (1) All parties to the conflict to declare a nationwide ceasefire without prior conditions, (2) Commitment to building a federal democratic union among stakeholders, (3) Formation of a federal democratic transitional government, (4) Drafting a federal democratic union constitution, and (5) Holding elections in accordance with the federal democratic constitution.

The Tatmadaw has already accepted the constitutional amendment, and when the Hluttaw convenes after the election, it can be amended; if a new constitution is to be drafted, it can be done through a referendum, said U Myo Set Thway, general secretary of the People's Pioneer Party (PPP), to CNI News.

The 7 EAO Alliance

“The 2008 constitution and election only contain a small part of federal and democracy, but they lack the true essence. So if we are to establish a federal and democratic country, the constitution must be amended, and the current SAC and the Tatmadaw have already said that they will amend the constitution. However, these things can only be resolved in Hluttaw. Otherwise, it is not easy to resolve them in other ways. So, after the election, we should amend the constitution in Hluttaw. Or if we want to rewrite the constitution from scratch, we should hold a nationwide referendum and then rewrite it." he said.

The Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) stipulates that a union based on democracy and federalism will be built in accordance with the results of political dialogue.

Members of the 7 EAO Alliance that have proposed to draft a Federal Democratic Union Constitution are the RCSS, PNLO, NMSP, LDU, DKBA, KNU/KNLA-PC, and ALP (now renamed ALPR) that have signed the NCA.

The SAC has said that elections will be held in December 2025 and January 2026.

CNI News

16 May 2025

Regional and state-based political parties are required by law to open offices in five townships, and if they fail to do so, questions are being raised about whether they are still allowed to contest elections. 

The SAC issued the new Political Parties Registration Law on January 26, 2023. 

The law states that parties competing in their regions or states must organize 1,000 party members within 90 days and open party branches in at least five townships.

Currently, battles are severely taking place across the country and political parties are finding it difficult to open office branches in the townships in States and Regions, that have been controlled by armed groups.

While 32 political parties were meeting on May 12, 2025

Parties that cannot open offices in the five townships may find it difficult to register legally and one possible solution to this dilemma is to allow them to open offices by changing locations, Dr. Aye Maung, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), told CNI News.

"According to that law, parties that cannot open offices in 5 townships will have difficulty registering legally. According to the original law, the number of party members for a Union Party must be 100,000, and the total number of offices must be 110, I think. But now SAC has reduced that number. However, it is still confirmed that parties representing states or regions must have 1,000 members. If it is difficult to open an office in an area designated by law, one possibility is whether they will allow you to change the location. If that's so, the regions where are based by the parties applying for registration will have to be changed. For example, a party based in Kayah will not be based in Kayah. How will the UEC discuss the purpose of the parties' formation? I think everyone will be interested in this." he said.

The UEC announced on April 8, 2025 that those who want to apply for party registration would need to apply on May 9, 2025 at the latest because a multi-party democratic general election will be held in December, 2025.

There are 27 political parties that applied for party registration according to Section-3 of Political Parties Registration Law and 50 parties that have applied for the right to continue to establish and register as political parties under Section 25 of the Political Parties Registration Law, released the UEC.

While the SAC Chairman was meeting with political parties

According to the law, if the number of offices and party members is not reached within the specified time, the party will be declared void, and as such, it will no longer be able to participate in the election, U Myo Set Thway, general secretary of the People's Pioneer Party (PPP), told CNI News.

"According to the law, if the number of offices and party members is not reached within the specified time, the party will be declared void, and as such, it will no longer be able to participate in the election. However, as I just said, whether or not any relaxations and understandings can be made depends on the current government, the SAC. If the SAC allow the parties to temporarily open offices in the townships that are not defined, it might be convenient." he said.

The AA has currently controlled 14 of the 17 townships in Rakhine State. These townships are Thandwe, Gwa, Ann, Minbya, Mrauk-U, Maungdaw, Rathedaung, Buthidaung,
Kyauktaw, Ponnakyun, Manaung, Pauktaw, Taung Goat, and Myebon. Moreover, revolutionary forces have captured 85 percent of Chin State, said spokesperson of the Chinland Brothers Organization, Salai Yawman at a press conference held on December 23, 2024. 

Similarly, in Kayah State, which has 9 townships, the Myanmar Tatmadaw controls only Loikaw township, while the remaining townships are controlled by armed groups.
Political analysts point out that political parties in these regions and states are in a situation where they are unable to open offices in five townships, making it debatable whether they are still allowed to contest elections under the law.

CNI News

15 May 2025

If China is able to negotiate with the SAC and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), it could continue to negotiate with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) rather than the Arakan Army (AA), Pa-O National Liberation Army (PNLO-NCA/S) chairman Colonel Khun Ukka told CNI News. 

Because Rakhine State is far from the Chinese border, it might not be on China's priority list for negotiations, he said, adding that the KIA and China share a border and have other issues, so negotiations with the KIA can take place after negotiating with the TNLA.

"It was reported that a 7 point agreement has been reached in relation to returning Lashio to the SAC by the MNDAA. According to the agreement, the MNDAA has returned to its place. But in the case of the TNLA, Chinese pressure is political and diplomatic. In reality, it is fear pressure. Peer pressure. I heard that the “Wa” has taken responsibility for facilitating the TNLA issue. Therefore, I believe that the “Wa” will negotiate with the TNLA and ensure that any side doesn't suffer. However, since the ULA/AA is far from the Chinese border, it might not be on China's priority list to negotiate. We heard that China wants to negotiate with the KIA before negotiating with the AA because the KIA shares a border with China. There are border trades as well. And China has other issues with the KIA." said Col. Khun Okkar.

Leader of the KIA General N'Ban La

Due to Chinese pressure and mediation, the Kokang Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) was forced to hand over the captured Lashio city and the Northeast Command to the Myanmar Tatmadaw on April 21, 2025. 

However, the MNDAA has been allowed to control over an area beyond the Kokang Self-Administered Zone, which is defined in Article 56(e) of the 2008 Constitution by combining Kon Kyan Township and Laukkai Township in Shan State. China then created the conditions for talks between the TNLA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw, once on February 15-16, 2025, and once on April 28-29.

During those talks, the Myanmar military demanded that TNLA troops withdraw from Mogok, Naung Cho, Kyaukme, Thibaw, and Namkham into the Palaung Self-Administered Zone, but no agreement was reached, and they agreed to meet again in August. 

China, which is a one-party state, is slow to act on any issue, and may be able to negotiate with other groups in the border region, China-Myanmar affairs analyst Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw told CNI News.

" China will negotiate with one organization after another. China is very patient in this kind of matter. Now, it seems like China negotiated with the MNDAA. The MNDAA had to retreat from Lashio, but it has gained many towns and cities and some of them are bigger than Laukkai. the MNDAA must develop them itself. After considering that, the TNLA also may make some concessions. China will negotiate with other organizations on the border  after doing with the TNLA, I think. The Chinese Communist Party is different from other parties in other countries. When one party holds power, it can set long-term policies. It can set long-term principles. So, it will do it gradually. It will negotiate with one after another.”she said.

The SAC Chairman and Chinese President Xi Jinping

Chinese President Xi Jinping said he would continue to support Myanmar's peace efforts during a meeting with the SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in Moscow, Russia, on May 9, 2025. 

Fierce battles are ongoing across Myanmar between ethnic armed organizations (EAOs)/the People's Defense Forces (PDF), and the Myanmar Tatmadaw. In the midst of these clashes, the AA-TNLA-MNDAA launched Operation 1027 in northern Shan State on October 27, 2023. 

During that operation, the AA-TNLA-MNDAA captured almost the entire northern region of Shan State and the Northeast Command.

On the other hand, the KIA, in collaboration with the PDF, is waging battles for control of towns in Kachin State and Sagaing Region. Similarly, the AA controls 14 out of 17 townships in Rakhine State, including Paletwa town, in Chin State, and in collaboration with local armed groups is also fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw in Ayeyarwady, Magway, and Sagaing regions. Therefore, China is trying to mediate and facilitate peace talks between the KIA-AA-TNLA-MNDAA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw.

CNI News

15 May 2025

Political parties are concerned that the public will become non-voters in the elections that are being prepared by the SAC, according to a joint statement by 32 political parties.
Led by the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), leaders of 32 political parties met in Yangon on May 12, 2025. And then, they jointly issued an 18-point statement.

Because elections are for the interest of all citizens, everyone should work together to make the elections successful; although the government and the UEC are making efforts to hold free and fair elections, people may become non-voters may become non-voters due to terrorist acts by terrorists, which they discussed.

So, Campaigns should be carried out to encourage people to vote, explaining to them that voting is very important for the future, which they discussed.

The joint statement by 32 political parties

The SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has said that elections will be held in Myanmar between December 2025 and January 2026. 

However, the National Unity Government (NUG), the National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC), some ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), the People's Defense Forces (PDF), and democracy activists, who are fighting to overthrow the SAC and the Myanmar Tatmadaw, have declared that they will sabotage the elections to be held by the SAC.

Then, on May 10, 2025, the NUCC issued a statement warning registered political parties not to participate in the mock election to be held by the SAC. Battles are taking place across Myanmar, with the SAC losing control of more than 90 towns and cities, and the role of political parties is dim, said in the joint statement.

The USDP, the Arakan Front Party, the Shan and Nationalities Democratic Party. the National Unity Party, the New Democracy Party (Kachin), the Lisu National Development Party, the Kumi National Party and the Mon Progressive Party are included in the joint statement

CNI News

14 May 2025

The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing was further proof that China stands behind the SAC, Colonel Khun Okkar, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), told CNI News. 

They two attended the 80th Anniversary Victory Celebration of the Great Patriotic War 1941-1945 that was held in Moscow, Russia and met on May 9, 2025.

The SAC had been requesting permission to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping for quite some time and the SAC Chairman was allowed to meet with Xi at that event, said chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News, adding that he heard that China was to enter and control until Mandalay if the SAC could not control the routes where Chinese projects are located.

" In terms of policy, China has long supported the SAC. So, China planned to make the SAC retake Lashio which the SAC had lost control of. If the SAC cannot control the route, China could enter and control until Mandalay, I heard. The SAC Chairman was not invited to China to meet, but when the two of them were in Moscow, they met during the highline. In any case, China has proved again that it stands behind the SAC." he said.

President Xi Jinping said during a meeting with the SAC Chairman on May 9 that China has always supported Myanmar's development, sovereignty, and stability and will continue to assist Myanmar in its development and peace efforts.

Xi also said Myanmar must ensure the safety of Chinese personnel, organizations, and projects in Myanmar. China-Myanmar affairs analyst Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw told CNI News that China may have been alerted to the SAC's actions as it has concerns about security issues.

" This military regime is not very reliable. China seems to warn in advance because it has known that this military council is not very reliable. Sometimes, pro-military groups such as Ma Ba Tha protest against China. China has always wanted Myanmar to be stable and peaceful. It doesn't want its investments to be hurt. Based on it, China will discuss. And then, China promised the SAC it will help Myanmar with the earthquake disaster. China is trying to mediate to cease fire. I think China may have urged the SAC to reduce airstrikes while it persuade both the SAC and opposition groups at the same time. China's ambition is always the same. It wants Myanmar to be stable and peaceful as well as develop. And it wants its Silk Road Project, a large-scale infrastructure development strategy to be successful as well." he said.

China has been moving closer to Myanmar since the political changes in Bangladesh, after Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had fled and the pro-American government led by Mohammad Yunus came to power. 

The SAC has met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang on several occasions, but this was the first time it met with President Xi Jinping, and the SAC reiterated its commitment to holding elections in December.

CNI News

14 May 2025

The SAC was less likely to accept forming the transitional government that was proposed by the 7 EAO Alliance, said political parties that have registered at the Union Election Committee. 

The SAC would continue as planned, and a government could only be properly called a transitional government only after elections were held, U Myo Set Thway, general secretary of the People's Progressive Party (PPP), told CNI News.

“It might not be as the 7 EAO Alliance demands. So the SAC might establish a transitional government within its original framework. If the SAC cannot accept it, SAC will continue with its original plan. If the SAC cannot accept to form a transitional government, it will continue with its original plan. Its commitment to hold this election is also included in its original announcement. It will go the election route. In the meantime, the interim government or the transitional government, will be formed in a way that allows it to follow its own path. So, what will happen is that 7 EAO will also demand their needs. If the SAC agrees to the request, it is likely that these peace talks will be strengthened further. But the peace process of the 7 EAO is not over yet. Even if SAC doesn't accept it, there's not much chance of it changing. If SAC can accept it, it's even better," he said.

While seeing the five point proposal by the 7 EAO Alliance

Dr. Aye Maung, chairman of the Arakan Army Front (AFP), told CNI News that the 7 EAO Alliance needs to clarify the definition of the term “transitional government” to the SAC. 

"The SAC’s six-month tenure will end on July 31, after which the SAC can delegate its powers to the Defense and Security Council. A government will emerge under the leadership of the National Defense and Security Council and under the constitution. That government could also appear to be a transitional government. Does the

7 EAO Alliance refer to that government? If that's so, according to the 2008 constitution, is the NDSC that is not the SAC going to call that government a transitional government or an interim government? It will be necessary to clarify whether the 7 EAO Alliance refers to a transitional government that is not related to the constitution. The SAC is also in a position to shape a government that can be called a transitional government, which will be formed by the National Defense and Security Council," he said. 

While seeing the NSPNC and the 7 EAO Alliance

The 7 The EAO Alliance held a meeting on April 28-29 and announced five proposals for implementation by the SAC.

The five proposals are: (1) a nationwide ceasefire by all organizations involved in the conflict, without preconditions; (2) a commitment to a federal democratic union among all stakeholders; (3) the formation of a federal democratic transition government; (4) the drafting of a federal democratic union constitution; and (5) holding elections in accordance with the federal democratic constitution.

7 The EAO Alliance includes the RCSS, the PNLO, the NMSP, the LDU, the DKBA, the KNU/KNLA-PC, the ALPR (renamed ALP), which are signatories to the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA).