CNI Articel

24 November 2025

Myanmar’s election has been announced to take place in three stages: Part (1) on December 28, 2025; Part (2) on January 11, 2026; and Part (3) in the final week of January 2026.

This election is described by some as one that could bring a turning point for the country, while others believe no change will come out of it at all.

In any case, it is important to understand how the public views the election, how they perceive it, what they expect from it, and what their desires are.

When referring to the public, it may be useful to categorize them into three groups:

The group that supports the military and the USDP

The neutral or undecided public

The public that supports the resistance movement

Among these three groups, the first and third are quite straightforward.

USDP campaigning

The first group supports the election and believes that the new government after the election will be led by the military and the USDP.

The third group opposes the election, so they have no interest in the election period or the post-election period.

Therefore, the opinions of the second group—the neutral public—regarding the election period and the post-election period are particularly interesting.

The neutral public does not like the current national situation.

For that reason, even though they do not fully like the election, they do not reject it; they simply watch the situation carefully, hoping that it might bring some kind of change to the current state of the country.

During the election period, the neutral public hopes for political parties that can address the day-to-day hardships faced by ordinary people.

Most of the neutral public does not trust or expect the promises of political parties about restoring democracy, establishing a federal union, achieving peace, or stopping the fighting.

 Political parties meeting

Their reasoning is that these are policies that would take at least ten years to achieve, even under ideal circumstances, and in Myanmar’s current situation, they believe such promises are simply deceptive attempts to win votes.

Therefore, most of the neutral public expects and hopes only for practical election promises—those that can realistically address the social and livelihood hardships currently faced by the public.

Most people are struggling with rising commodity prices, unlawful arrests under the conscription law and demands for payments, shortages of goods, increasing theft and robbery, fewer job opportunities, reduced income, inflation, lack of safety during travel and extortion, weak rule of law, and the government’s poor response to public complaints.

Likewise, they face difficulties such as the inability to easily obtain passports, excessive payments demanded for processing them, restrictions on leaving the country, extortion under various pretexts, barriers to working abroad, lack of full electricity supply, extremely high land and rental prices, and excessively expensive vehicle prices.

 People waiting to cast votes

Therefore, the majority of the public is considering voting only for political parties that promise—and seem capable of—solving these immediate social and livelihood problems.

At present, no political party has been seen campaigning with a credible promise to solve these problems, nor is there a party that has convincingly given such guarantees.

Moreover, the neutral public is also watching the post-election period with great interest, analyzing it carefully. They are considering which party might form the government, what kind of government might emerge, what policies might be adopted, which party in power could bring hope, and which might leave things unchanged.

In any case, given the political crisis, armed conflicts, international economic sanctions, the decline in livelihoods, inflation, weak national security and rule of law, halted trade flows, and social fragmentation in Myanmar, the neutral public hopes for a new government that can genuinely resolve these issues.

Thus, most of the neutral public hopes that the post-election government will be formed as a national unity government based on national reconciliation.

Their belief is that Myanmar’s numerous crises can only be overcome if all citizens unite and work together.

Therefore, it remains to be seen how the expectations of the three public groups will evolve during the election period and the post-election period.

CNI News
22 November 2025

If Myanmar is to move toward a federal system, it must be built only after ensuring fair give-and-take, compromise, and mutual concessions among all sides, said political analyst U Htet Aung Kyaw.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, recently stated that in implementing democracy and federalism, Myanmar would adopt a territory-based federal system, not an ethnicity-based federal system, and that it would fit Myanmar’s own context.

It is believed that the preference for a territory-based federal model is due to concerns that states organized based on ethnicity have historically led to division and dissatisfaction.

Political analyst U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News that if Myanmar is to adopt a federal system, it must be done through thorough negotiations ensuring that all sides agree on the terms.

Participants seen attending a federalism workshop hosted by the Embassy of India.

“Given the current political situation, everyone now believes that a federal system is the only way forward. Even the military agrees that the country must adopt this system. But the question is: What form should it take? Sometimes one side thinks a particular model is good, but the other side cannot accept it — which can make the situation worse. That is why, in moving toward a federal system, it is better not to rush. We need repeated and thorough discussions until we reach a situation where everyone is satisfied. Only then should we implement the system. That is why give-and-take, compromise, and mutual concessions must be carefully worked out before proceeding.”, he said.

Although all sides in Myanmar agree in principle on establishing a federal union, what exact form of federalism will be implemented has not been clearly presented.

The Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) has proposed adopting India’s federal model, while ethnic armed organizations have expressed preference for federal systems practiced in the United States, Canada, Switzerland, and Germany.

Participants seen attending a federalism workshop hosted by the Embassy of India.

USDP spokesperson U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News that federalism is fundamentally related to territorial administration, not ethnicity.

“Federalism is based on territory. When we talk about making laws and administering governance, it naturally corresponds with geographical areas. If it is based on ethnicity, then policies would be shaped according to the mindset of those specific groups — which may or may not be practical. What I want to say is that it is more appropriate to design a federal system based on the specific conditions of each region.”, he said.

The Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), signed by the Myanmar military, the government, parliament (Hluttaw), and ethnic armed groups, states that Myanmar will build a Federal Democratic Union based on outcomes from political dialogue.

However, to this day, no concrete agreement has been reached regarding the exact type of federal system or the details of democratic reforms.

CNI News
22 November 2025

The upcoming election will be a turning point for the nation, according to Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission.

He made the remarks during the 2024 National Lifetime Literary Award, National Literary Award, and Sarpay Beikman Manuscript Award Ceremony held on November 20, 2025.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said: “While the government is striving to ensure political stability and to successfully organize elections in an orderly manner, the public, too, must take part in this election — a turning point for the country — as a national duty. Citizens should maintain unity, patience, and work together toward a better future.”

He stated that the elections would be held phase by phase, and townships unable to participate for various reasons would have elections conducted later when possible. As the election period approaches, maintaining national peace and stability becomes increasingly important, he added.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing further said: “By prioritizing national interests and implementing a genuine, disciplined multi-party democratic system, the collective development of the Union, domestic peace, and the sustained socio-economic advancement of the people can be achieved. Public participation is crucial for the success of general elections under a multi-party democratic system. Our people must cultivate good democratic habits, acquire knowledge, and develop modern awareness through literature and education.”

In Myanmar, Phase 1 of the election will be held on December 28, 2025, in 102 townships. Phase 2 will be conducted on January 11, 2026, in 100 townships, followed by Phase 3 in the last week of January 2026.

Political observers note that in the current electoral landscape, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) faces no strong competitors, giving the party a significant advantage in forming the next government if it wins the election.

Therefore, they argue that if the next government continues with the current structure and policies, major changes in the country are unlikely.

Analysts further point out that to create meaningful change — including resolving the ongoing political crisis, armed conflicts, and international economic sanctions, as well as improving socio-economic conditions — the post-election government must consider forming a Government of National Unity.

CNI News
22 November 2025

For Myanmar’s upcoming elections, instead of allowing only the winning party to form a government, it would be better to assemble a Government of National Unity composed of outstanding individuals from various parties, political analyst U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News.

In Myanmar, the first phase of the election will be held on December 28, 2025 covering 102 townships.

The second phase will be conducted on January 11, 2026, in 100 townships, and the third phase will be held in the last week of January.

U Htet Aung Kyaw said that rather than the winning party forming a government alone, it would be more beneficial if the victorious party created a system resembling a national unity government by bringing together capable individuals from various parties.

“It depends on how well they can mobilize the public to vote. If they can motivate the public and votes come in large numbers, opposition parties also have a chance to win. Depending on that, we can see how far things can improve. One thing is certain — under the current circumstances, the country needs change. Instead of a single winning party forming the government alone, if they gather talented people from each party and form a unity government with a spirit of jointly solving the country’s problems, that would be better.”, he said.

Some political party leaders seen

As Myanmar prepares for the election, analysts point out that the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) currently holds certain advantages based on the political environment and legal framework, and that the new government could potentially be formed under the leadership of the USDP and the Myanmar military.

Therefore, analysts suggest that whichever party wins the election should consider forming a Government of National Unity in order to overcome the country’s political crisis, armed conflicts, and international sanctions.

Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News that more parliamentary candidates who can amplify the people’s voice need to enter parliament(Hluttaw).

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing with political leaders seen

“Compared to now, I think things will greatly improve. Why? Because international election observers have been invited. They will monitor whether the voting process is free and fair. After the election, a government that upholds the people’s voice is possible. When parliament is formed, we will be able to hear the voices of the people. For the past five years, people’s voices have disappeared. When parliament reconvenes, those voices will return. With public support, if we can speak out more in parliament, the country will gradually stabilize. To ensure that the people’s voices are heard, more candidates who truly represent the people must enter parliament. Only then will the true voices of the public be heard. We need to think carefully about who can effectively speak for the people and overcome the challenges.”, he said.

Political analysts advise that citizens should carefully examine the political parties and candidates contesting the election, choosing those who will genuinely work for the benefit of the public and the nation.

CNI News
22 November 2025

Military and political analysts are raising questions about what kind of political approach should be taken between the Government–Tatmadaw and ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) in order to achieve peace in Myanmar.

Myanmar still faces many fundamental needs for social and economic development, peace and ethnic unity are critically important, and that a political approach is essential to achieving peace. This was stated by Lt-Gen Yar Pyae, Chairman of the NSPNC.

Analysts highlight that without addressing the root causes of conflict—political beliefs, historical grievances, ideological disputes—any peace process cannot succeed.

Political analyst Dr. Aung Myo told CNI News that a political approach means improving domestic administration and gaining public support.

“Using a political approach means we sit together at the table, discuss, and make necessary compromises. For example, Kokang has basically been allowed by the government to administer their own area. So they should be satisfied. If they aren’t and continue creating problems, one day they will be suppressed by the Tatmadaw together with the people—this is just the truth. The government needs to improve governance and earn public support. This will happen soon. If a democratic government comes in soon, better conditions will follow.”, he said.

Armed groups, political party leaders, and military leaders seen together

Observers also point out that those involved in peace efforts come with diverse ideas, perspectives, and degrees of commitment.

U Thein Tun Oo, spokesperson of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), told CNI News that the government and EAOs must hold negotiations many times to achieve peace.

“We will continue to meet and negotiate. The State already has ongoing peace processes. In these talks, one side will express what is possible, and the other side will try to compromise where they can. Through repeated rounds of negotiation and compromise, peace will eventually come to us. Once the armed groups achieve peace, they can take part in the national elections organized by the State. Their elected representatives from their own regions will emerge, and through them, they can work for the benefit of the people and the country. So peace will come through continuous negotiation and cooperation.”, he said.

At present, heavy clashes continue between the Tatmadaw and various armed resistance groups, and the peace process remains stalled.

Myanmar’s internal conflict has persisted from January 4, 1948, the day independence was regained, until today.

CNI News

21 November 2025

Analysts of military and political affairs say the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA) is facing several obstacles in its efforts to retake Banmauk, a town in northern Sagaing Region.

Banmauk was attacked on September 15, 2025, by joint forces of the KIA, PDF, and Kadu fighters, and was captured on September 20.

The SNA’s current slowdown in offensive operations to retake Banmauk may be due to shortages of weapons and ammunition, said Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), speaking to CNI News.

He said the expansion of KIA-controlled territory in upper Sagaing Region depends largely on the SNA’s military capability.

Sai Htay Aung said: “From what I know, the SNA is short on weapons in Banmauk. Another issue is that the jammers the KIA-allied forces got from Indaw are extremely effective. The Tatmadaw’s drones cannot get past those jammers, so military activity around Banmauk has basically stalled. Near Banmauk, the SNA has advanced as close as one mile away. They have reached that point, but recapturing the town itself remains difficult.”

KIA-PDF-Kadu joint forces after capturing Banmauk

“Another factor is that many Shanni civilians live in Banmauk. If the SNA launched a full assault, local homes could be burned or destroyed, so they have to act cautiously. That is also why their operations appear paused. Prolonged fighting is never good, but when war breaks out, the best outcome is to end it quickly with minimal civilian harm. Whether KIA expands its territory or not depends on how strongly the SNA can fight. If the Shanni Army can win, KIA’s control will shrink. If not, KIA-held areas will expand.”

The SNA is a Shanni armed organization operating from central to northern Sagaing Region.

Because the SNA considers Banmauk to be part of its home territory, it is expected to launch a counter-offensive once its strength is restored, according to political analyst Sai Main.

Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA)

He said:“Historically, ethnic tensions between Shanni and KIA have always been present. If these issues are not solved with sincerity, they may worsen. The Shanni currently have significant strength in that area. Meanwhile, KIA-led forces, including PDFs and resistance groups, are fighting heavily there. There is no sign the fighting will decrease soon. As long as the SAC and KIA-PDF coalition keep fighting, SNA will also continue clashing with KIA-PDF forces in that region. Fighting goes back and forth—advance, retreat, counterattack. That’s normal. Since Banmauk is regarded as the SNA’s own town, they will certainly attempt to recapture it once they regain strength. But for now, it is difficult to say how far they can go.”

The KIA-led coalition attacked Banmauk on September 15, 2025, at a time when the Myanmar military presence there was weakened, and succeeded in capturing the town on September 20.

As a result of the fighting, Kadu villagers fled from their villages near Banmauk to SNA-controlled areas west of the town.

Banmauk’s population is majority Shanni, followed by Kadu as the second-largest group.

Analysts say KIA’s capture of Banmauk has made it easier for them to send supplies, personnel, and weapons into the upper Sagaing Region.

Currently, the SNA controls the western outskirts of Banmauk and is positioned about one mile from the town, preparing for a possible counterattack to retake it.

CNI News

21 November 2025

Political parties are struggling to survive amid ongoing armed conflicts, according to Dr. Aye Maung, Chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), speaking to CNI News.

Intense clashes are occurring nationwide between the Myanmar military and various armed groups, and these groups have warned political parties not to cooperate with or participate in the upcoming elections.

Dr. Aye Maung told CNI that political parties are finding it extremely difficult to operate in such conditions.

He said:“There are many problems even before the election period begins. Especially in Rakhine, the war has caused widespread suffering and the refugees have increased. Because of that, meetings with the people and even gatherings in relatively peaceful areas have become rare. In IDP camps, it is extremely difficult for political parties to conduct activities such as membership registration, mobilization, or discussions. Under such armed conflict, political parties must struggle simply to stay alive. Schools used to be our main places for party outreach, but now even those spaces are unavailable.”

Sai Htay Aung

Meanwhile, armed organizations and Spring Revolution forces have repeatedly declared their intention to disrupt the planned election and to take action against those cooperating with it.

In the current situation, political parties must take risks, and avoiding direct encounters with armed groups is essential, said Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party.

“When armed groups grow stronger, the battlefield expands. But for the political arena to expand, politicians must take risks. Only when the political space broadens can citizens have security and livelihoods. For that reason, we politicians today must take on that historical responsibility. To expand political space, we have to take risks and work. Information is crucial—since political parties originate from the public, we need to gather information early.”, he said.

 An armed man

“For example, I planned to travel to Myitkyina on the 2nd November. Our party informed the UEC in advance through our party’s outreach page. But then we received information that the KIA had deployed a military column between Myitkyina and Mayan, and that KIA had armed PDF forces in Letpadan, Nat Mauk, and Nansang. When such information reaches us, we must reconsider our plans. Avoiding direct encounters with armed groups is extremely important. Right now, political parties must take risks, but we must work with caution.”, he aid.

Armed conflicts in Myanmar have persisted since shortly after independence in 1948. Until now, no effective method has been found to reduce or eliminate the number of armed organizations in the country.

Despite these challenges, political parties are preparing to contest the nationwide election scheduled for December 28, 2025.

CNI News

21 November 2025

If Shan people do not protect and safeguard their homeland, Shan State may one day fall into the hands of other nationalities, according to General Yawd Serk, Chairman of the Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army (RCSS/SSA).

He made the remark in his message for the 2120 Shan New Year, issued on November 19, 2025.

“If Shan people fail to cherish and safeguard Shan State, then in the time of our children and grandchildren, other peoples may enter, settle, and live inside Shan State, and our own land will fall under their ownership. If that happens, the lives of Shan people will not only decline but also become humiliating, forcing them to flee to other regions and countries to seek refuge and make a living.”, said General Yawd Serk

Therefore, he urged: “Cherish your history, love your homeland, protect your properties, your farms, and your lands, and collectively safeguard Shan State.”

Shan New Year celebrations

Lt-Gen Ywet Sit added, “The only thing that can never be changed or moved is the territory of our homeland. Shan State is a land that has been ruled for generations by Shan kings and Sawbwars (Shan chiefs). Shan State belongs to all Shan people. For it to remain a stable and enduring homeland in the future, we must all come together to protect it.”

Shan State is currently home to multiple armed groups, including the RCSS, the Shan State Progress Party (SSPP/SSA), the National Democratic Alliance Army–Mongla (NDAA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the United Wa State Army (UWSA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Arakan Army (AA), People’s Defence Forces (PDFs), and People’s Militia Forces.

As a result, clashes are occurring both among armed groups themselves and between these groups and the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw), causing hundreds of thousands of civilians to flee their homes.

At the same time, ethnic armed groups and business actors are jointly extracting and selling valuable mineral resources in Shan State.

CNI News

20 November 2025

The new government that emerges after the elections must work to build national unity capable of overcoming Myanmar’s political crisis, said Dr. Aye Maung, Chair of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), to CNI News.

Phase (1) of the multiparty democratic general election will be held on 28 December 2025 in 102 townships, followed by Phase (2) on 11 January 2026 in 100 townships.

Dr. Aye Maung, who also chairs the Arakan National Party (ANP), told CNI News that the incoming government could plan to prioritize national reconciliation and national unity.

Dr. Aye Maung with political party leaders

He said:“After this upcoming election, the new government that takes office will likely face a more flexible international environment in terms of foreign engagement.Likewise, regarding ethnic issues, resolving armed conflicts, and achieving political progress, the situation will become more solid.There must be a firm and clear commitment to implementing national reconciliation and national unity.We need a strong government.
At the same time, it must tackle external diplomatic pressure and domestic challenges, including international sanctions.When forming the new parliamentary government, it must reshape itself into a stronger government structure than previous administrations.If such transformation is possible, the next five years can be used to rebuild the new nation we are aiming for.”

Shan and Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP) Chair Sai Aik Paung also told CNI News that the new government must prioritize stability and meet with all stakeholders.

He said:“For us, nationwide ceasefire comes first.If we want peace, we have to meet and negotiate on what kind of federal model we want and how we will move forward.
First of all, we must stop the fighting to prevent further deaths among the people and youth.Once there is a ceasefire, we must talk about how to improve the country together.

Political party representatives meeting with UEC officials

We must work with genuine love for the country and the Union.We should not blame one another — instead, we must discuss how to achieve long-term peace, long-term development, and long-term stability.Leave the past in the past. Forget it.We need to sit together openly at the table, all groups included, and work toward peace.Otherwise, the country will continue to suffer greatly.”

The Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, has stated that state power will be transferred to whichever political party wins the election.

He has also informed the military that after the election, the Tatmadaw will no longer participate in politics and will focus solely on national defense.

Following these statements, the public now hopes that the post-election government might be formed as a national unity government.