CNI News

12 November 2025

With the ongoing political crisis in Myanmar, questions are being raised about the status of the public’s freedom of expression.

On February 1, 2021, the Myanmar Military (Tatmadaw) ousted the NLD government, citing their attempt to form a government without resolving the disputed voter list from the election, and subsequently declared a state of emergency.

Since then, as armed conflict has intensified between the Tatmadaw and revolutionary forces, the public's freedom of expression and the right to stand by their beliefs have also been increasingly restricted.

Dr. Nyo Nyo Thin, founder of the Yangon Watch Group, told CNI News that restricting the public's freedom of expression is detrimental to democracy.

She stated: "In an effort for the State to successfully achieve its political goal—the election—it is suppressing and restricting any issue or event it believes could disrupt the election, leading to a situation where freedom of expression is being threatened. The prosecuting authorities must consider this carefully. These incidents are not good for a future democratic state. Therefore, action should be taken after judiciously weighing how much the public's freedom of expression can impact the election. Arresting, prosecuting, and jailing people merely for criticizing the election or a candidate competing in the election, simply because they are dissatisfied, raises many questions. We are concerned about a situation where politics dominates the rule of law. That is why we do not want judicial and prosecuting authorities to file arbitrary charges and take action merely as part of a 'state plan'."

 A place in Yangon

Currently, authorities are arresting and prosecuting individuals who criticize the election, attempt to sabotage it, or criticize and defame candidates running in the election.

Similarly, the Spring Revolution forces are also taking action, including issuing life threats, against those who criticize the revolution or fail to support it in their writings.

U Ko Ko Gyi, Chairman of the People's Party (PP), told CNI News that freedom will remain secondary as long as security threats remain high.

 Demanding democracy (Photo: Frontier Myanmar).

He stated: "As long as security threats remain high, freedoms will always take a backseat. That is why we believe that when security threats are reduced along with peace, democratic rights such as freedom of speech, freedom of belief, and freedom of assembly will return. Otherwise, the higher the conflict, the more security will take the forefront. In a security period, for example, during periods of Martial Law, the order of the respective military commander becomes the law. Even when such practices are necessary, the commander needs to exercise their authority with restraint and caution. If the areas under Martial Law gradually decrease, areas where the rule of law prevails will re-emerge. Only then will the offices of elected representatives become places where the public can come to share their concerns and discuss issues. Thus, if there are instances of controlling or threatening freedom, mechanisms can emerge for the public to voice their grievances through their representatives."

Political analysts point out that as long as Myanmar's political crisis is not overcome, or until a civilian government is established, the public's freedom and right to expression will remain restricted.

CNI News

12 November 2025

The head of the Information Team of the National Defense and Security Council, Major General Zaw Min Tun, stated that the National League for Democracy (NLD) government and the Union Election Commission (UEC) they appointed destroyed the multiparty democratic system, and that they (the NDSC) are systematically rebuilding it.

Major General Zaw Min Tun made this announcement, titled "Statement to the People Regarding the Multiparty Democratic General Election," on November 10, 2025.

He pointed out that there were 38 million eligible voters in the 2020 General Election, and when political parties and the military (Tatmadaw) jointly requested the NLD government to solve the 10.4 million cases of alleged voter fraud, the NLD failed to address it and instead attempted to convene the parliament and form a government on February 1, 2021.

He suggested that people can consider who made demands legally and lawfully, and who disregarded and ignored the law through these actions. Following this, Major General Zaw Min Tun said that the Tatmadaw (Myanmar Military) had to assume all state responsibilities.

Major General Zaw Min Tun

He stated: "It is only the NLD government and the Union Election Commission they formed, who tried to seize state power by illegal means without solving the voter fraud lawfully, that intentionally destroyed the sincere and disciplined multiparty democratic system for the entire populace and the nation. We are systematically rebuilding this multiparty democratic system, which was destroyed and which the people desired and longed for."

Regarding the current political crisis, the Myanmar Military announced that the election will be held in three phases:

Phase 1: December 28, 2025, in 102 townships.

Phase 2: January 11, 2026, in 100 townships.

Phase 3: The last week of January 2026, two weeks after Phase 2.

The National Unity Government (NUG), formed by NLD leaders and elected representatives, the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), and the People's Defense Force (PDF) have all issued statements vowing to completely disrupt this election.

Similarly, they have issued warnings that those who participate in the election led by the Myanmar Military will face effective action, and that their safety cannot be guaranteed.

CNI News

12 November 2025

There are ongoing discussions and analyses among military and political observers regarding who gained political advantage by leaning on the forces of the Spring Revolution.

Following the political changes in 2021, the emerging People's Defense Forces (PDFs) have been cooperating with Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) to fight the Myanmar Military (Tatmadaw).

While these EAO-PDF joint forces were able to seize territories in their battles, subsequent negotiations mediated by China resulted in agreements only between the Tatmadaw and the EAOs, with the seized towns being handed back.

U Thein Tun Oo, Executive Director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNI that EAOs gained a large number of armed forces from the PDFs. He suggested that based on the actual loss of forces and damages suffered in these developments, one can see whether the EAOs or the PDFs gained the political upper hand.

Chin Brotherhood (CB) and NUG leaders meet

He stated: "This is because the EAOs didn't have this level of activity before. Simply put, they gained a considerable number of fighting forces—forces that would carry out armed activities—from the PDFs. Consequently, in the end, the PDFs did not get what they wanted. At the same time, their ability to maneuver became very difficult. Our analysis is that the EAOs gained the advantage. The PDFs no longer have much capacity to act. Furthermore, we are seeing how well their cooperation is or isn't working. Therefore, if you look at who truly lost forces and how much damage they suffered, it's clear. Based on that, everyone can see whether the EAOs or the PDFs gained the advantage."

Following a meeting between the TNLA (Ta’ang National Liberation Army) and the Tatmadaw on October 27 and 28, 2025, the TNLA announced a ceasefire agreement and stated they would withdraw from Mogok and Momeik townships.

Following this announcement, the military situation on the Shan-Mandalay border has become complicated, with the MDY-PDF (Mandalay PDF) publicly stating that they will not easily relinquish the control areas seized during the Spring Revolution.

Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, an analyst of China-Myanmar affairs, told CNI that since the main priority for EAOs is the liberation of their respective regions, states, and ethnic groups, it seems their efforts were more focused on securing their territories when striking political agreements.

However, she added that she believes most of the comrades of the Spring Revolution will understand the difficulties faced by the Ethnic Armed Organizations.

Chin Brotherhood (CB) and KIA leader Deputy General Gun Maw meet.

Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw said: "All the Ethnic Armed Organizations are geographically contiguous with China. So, rather than pressure from China, it's more like China offering incentives. For example, if they cease fire, they will open the border gates. China has opened up a lot of economic movement for groups like the MNDAA. That's why the MNDAA has been able to properly rebuild their old territories. So, it's not that the ethnic organizations don't have good will towards Myanmar. But their main priority is the liberation of their region, their state, or their ethnic group, rather than the entire country. Therefore, I think they were more inclined to settle for this and focus on stabilizing and strengthening their own territories. The PDFs also understand this. I think most of the comrades from the Spring Revolution understand the difficulties and predicaments of the ethnic groups, so there will be mutual understanding. Saying this doesn't mean everything is smooth. There might be minor conflicts and friction."

Military and political observers had speculated that since the Kokang Army (MNDAA) handed back Lashio town to the Myanmar Military out of the towns seized during Operation 1027, other towns might also have to be returned.

Mogok and Momeik townships were seized by the TNLA and its allies in July 2024. News is now circulating that, a little over a year later, the TNLA has reached an agreement with the Myanmar Military and will withdraw by the deadline of November 20.

Furthermore, the KIA (Kachin Independence Army) has also used PDF forces to seize and control military bases and towns of the Myanmar Military in Kachin State and Sagaing Region.

However, military and political observers point out that if the KIA, which is reportedly in secret contact with the Myanmar Military for peace talks, reaches an agreement, the position of the PDFs could change significantly.

CNI News

12 November 2025

Business leaders and economic analysts have emphasized the need to find effective ways for Myanmar’s government and private sector to work together in order to revive and strengthen the national economy.

According to U Htay Aung Kyi, a banking and financial expert, businesspeople must clearly differentiate between income generation and true business development, while the government must provide structured and consistent economic policies supported by laws, regulations, and practical guidelines — without distorting the market or imposing arbitrary control.

He told CNI News,“To reach the global level, we must operate systematically and competitively. Every earning is not a business — that’s an important distinction. The government also has responsibilities: it needs to act smartly, with sound laws, regulations, and systems that support business development without distorting economic policy. For business people, success should not only mean short-term profits, but also long-term growth to reach international standards. The government must have the capacity to guide the country to that level. So, effective collaboration between the government and entrepreneurs is vital.”

Local vendor seen at market

He further noted that the government should review and revise existing laws, regulations, and policy frameworks to make them more supportive of private-sector operations:

“To make business operations smooth, the government must provide support through laws, bylaws, regulations, directives, and policies. For the private sector to truly function, these frameworks need to be thoroughly reviewed and updated.”

Meanwhile, business leader U Aung Pyae Sone told CNI News that the government must actively listen to the voices of businesspeople and maintain regular engagement with them. He pointed out that cooperation between the two sides remains weak:

While seeing a stevedore

“The government should listen carefully to what businesspeople are saying. Meetings between government bodies and business associations should be held regularly. For example, if it’s difficult to meet with Union-level authorities, regional and state officials — including those from UMFCCI — should engage with local entrepreneurs. Some major business owners are not even members of any associations, so the government should still reach out to them to learn what they need. Rather than waiting for entrepreneurs to report their problems, the government should proactively ask what kind of support is required. So far, communication and coordination have been quite weak.”

To improve Myanmar’s economy, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, has invited both domestic and foreign investment. The government is reportedly seeking partnerships with countries such as China, Russia, Belarus, Thailand, and India.

However, Myanmar’s economy remains in decline due to ongoing political instability, weak rule of law and security, insufficient electricity supply, a shortage of labor, and international economic sanctions.

CNI News

11 November 2025

The Kachin Independence Organization/Army (KIO/KIA) is reportedly closer than the Arakan Army (AA) to reaching an understanding with the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw), according to Colonel Khun Okkar, Chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), who spoke to CNI News.

He said that among the Brotherhood Alliance forces in northern Myanmar — the Kokang (MNDAA), Ta’ang (TNLA), and Arakan (AA) armies — the Myanmar military has already held meetings and signed a ceasefire agreement with the Kokang and Ta’ang forces, through Chinese mediation. However, it may still take some time before the military can meet with the AA.

Colonel Khun Okkar explained, “The AA is currently quite distant from China — China’s pressure doesn’t reach them. They also have openings toward India and Bangladesh, so it may take a bit longer for them. It might happen only after the elections. For the north, this ceasefire agreement is important because it helps open transportation routes and makes it possible for elections to be held in northern regions. The ceasefire, which came into effect at midnight on October 29, is a positive sign. Villages and towns are safer now, with far fewer casualties and destruction. If one side stops bombing and the other side withdraws from towns, things will improve. Gradually, other groups may follow the same path. For instance, the KIO might come first — in comparison with the AA, the KIO is closer to an agreement, while the AA might take a little longer.”

Some TNLA leaders

Military and political analysts have also suggested that there is a likelihood of meetings between the KIA and the Myanmar military during November and December, ahead of the first phase of the upcoming elections scheduled for December 28, 2025.

In northern Shan State, although the Myanmar military and the Kokang group (MNDAA) have already ceased hostilities, clashes were still taking place with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). 

Later, through China’s mediation, a meeting was held in Kunming between October 27 and 28, 2025, between a delegation led by Lt-Gen Ko Ko Oo of the Myanmar military and a TNLA delegation led by Lt-Gen Tar Jock Jar.

This ninth round of negotiations resulted in both sides signing a ceasefire agreement to take effect from October 29. TNLA announced that its forces would withdraw from Mogok and Momeik townships in accordance with the agreement.

At present, the situation in northern Myanmar is relatively calm, and the military may now shift its operations to central regions of the country for election security, Colonel Khun Okkar told CNI News.

Some MNDAA leaders

He said,“For now, the north is quiet. The army can conduct operations in the central regions — Magway, Sagaing, and Mandalay. These areas still have administrative and defense authorities, and various groups exist, some of which have influence and public support. There are also local tensions between authorities and the population. For election security, the military may redirect its operations toward those areas.”

After ceasefire deals with the Kokang (MNDAA) and Ta’ang (TNLA) forces, the Arakan Army (AA) announced on October 31 that airstrikes had intensified in some parts of Rakhine State.

Earlier, on July 31, 2025, Myanmar’s military government declared a 90-day state of emergency across 63 townships nationwide, extended for another 90 days beyond October 31. 

This extension included Mogok and Momeik, where the TNLA had agreed to withdraw under the new ceasefire. Authorities stated that martial law powers would continue to be exercised in those areas under the Commander-in-Chief’s authority.

CNI News

11 November 2025

Observers of military and political affairs say that the reason armed organizations have become so numerous in Myanmar must be properly examined and addressed.

According to Major Colonel Khun Okkar, Chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO/NCA-S), the country’s armed conflicts originated from political crises that began with the 1947 Constitution, and have continued to multiply even under the current 2008 Constitution.
He told CNI News,

“The emergence of armed groups depends largely on the vision of the leaders who handled the country at the time it became independent. Those leaders prioritized a unitary system rather than a true federal one. Although they used the name ‘Union,’ they designed the 1947 Constitution in a way that prevented federalism. They also ignored the Panglong Agreement and failed to ensure equality. They hid a unitary system behind the name of a union, and because of that dishonesty, the problems began there. From that time, the Communist Party split off, and Karen took up arms. Armed conflict has continued for more than 70 or 80 years. During that entire period, there has never been genuine independence or full democratic rights. The beginning was flawed, so the outcome could never be stable. The Panglong Agreement was never implemented, and the constitution was not honest either. From that flawed foundation arose political crises, which led to armed conflicts.”

Meeting of various armed organizations

On February 1, 2021, the Myanmar military seized power from the National League for Democracy (NLD) government, claiming that it did not resolve the 2020 general election voter list irregularities and tried to form a government.

After declaring a state of emergency, the military took control of the country. In response, various armed groups launched revolutions to overthrow the military regime.

Dr. Nyo Nyo Thin, founder of the Yangon Watch Group, told CNI News that the proliferation of armed groups is also tied to economic benefits associated with taking up arms:

Tatmadaw leaders and armed groups

“Especially after the 2021 political upheaval, the number of armed groups and armed forces increased. This stemmed from differing political ideologies and opposition to the military takeover, which triggered bloodshed. When different sides tried to solve political problems through political means, they were too weak to succeed. As a result, each side spread only the information that benefited their own cause. This caused the public’s access to accurate information to reach its lowest point. Because of that lack of true information, misunderstandings grew, armed conflicts intensified, and many profit-seeking groups emerged from the fighting. Once weapons came into their hands, many small groups found ways to benefit economically, making them reluctant to disarm. Although their stated purpose was political, it became clear that armed struggle itself brought economic advantage. This is why the number of armed groups has continued to grow, even unintentionally.”

Military and political analysts further point out that since 2021, both government institutions and armed groups have increasingly focused on serving their own interests.

Moreover, these armed groups have not only multiplied but have also expanded their control in their respective areas. They now collect taxes, permit mining and extraction of local resources, trade weapons, and engage in illicit businesses such as drug trafficking and smuggling to sustain their operations.

Up to the present day, no effective solution or practical approach has been found to reduce or eliminate Myanmar’s numerous armed groups.

CNI News

10 November  2025

In Myanmar today, while many armed resistance groups claim to be fighting against dictatorship, they are increasingly adopting authoritarian practices themselves, according to military and political analysts.

Although Myanmar has long been home to multiple armed groups, hundreds of new ones have emerged since the political changes that followed February 1, 2021.

However, despite their stated goals, these groups have failed to reach any ceasefire agreement or political settlement that could end the ongoing conflicts.

Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News that those fighting dictatorship must be careful not to become dictators themselves, and should also avoid ethnic discrimination while claiming to build a federal democratic system.

“If you look at the KIA as an example — they say they’re fighting for federalism and democracy, but among those under their control, there’s still strong ethnic discrimination.

Protesters calling for democracy

They need to practice fairness themselves. Many of these armed groups say they’re fighting dictatorship, but they’ve started acting in the same authoritarian way. Some are even worse. If you’re fighting against dictatorship, you must be very careful not to do the same things yourself.  If your actions cause the country to be destroyed or its image ruined, it’s better not to do them at all. When armed groups begin to threaten civilians, we have to ask the SSPC — how should we engage or negotiate with such groups? If they can’t be controlled, then we’ll have to respond militarily. When independence was gained, there were fewer than ten armed groups. Now there are over a hundred, which has become a heavy burden on the public.”, he said.

Across Myanmar today, fierce clashes are ongoing both between the military (Tatmadaw) and armed resistance groups, and also among the groups themselves.

Colonel Khun Okkar, Chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO/NCA-S), told CNI News that authoritarianism can come from any side — military or civilian — and that without restoring democracy, dictatorship will inevitably return.

Armed groups, military leaders, and political parties seen

“Dictatorship can come from the army, from civilians, from local warlords, even from ethnic armed leaders. When a system is bad, revolution to change it is justified. But if you remove one dictator only to have another take power, nothing truly changes — just the person, not the system.To eliminate dictatorship, you must promote its opposite — democracy. When democracy becomes strong, dictatorship won’t return. But if democracy isn’t rebuilt, even if one dictator disappears, another will rise. In Myanmar, there have already been three coups. Between 2010 and 2020, we failed to make democracy stable. Because those governments didn’t strengthen democracy, political upheaval happened again.”, he said.

On February 1, 2021, Myanmar’s military ousted the NLD government, claiming it failed to address alleged irregularities in the 2020 general election voter lists.

After seizing power, the military declared a state of emergency and took control of the country. In response, various armed groups launched an armed resistance movement aimed at overthrowing the military junta.

Analysts note that in this ongoing political crisis, both sides have embraced a “you’re either with us or against us” mentality, leading to widespread suppression and conflict.

CNI News

10 November 2025

The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), a Muslim armed group, recently declared that it would attack, seize, and govern Rakhine State, sparking analysis and debate among military and political observers about the reasons behind such a statement.

ARSA made this claim during its 9th anniversary gathering, asserting that it would take control of Rakhine State through military action.

According to Dr. Aye Maung, Chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), the statement was a morale-boosting message aimed at mobilizing public support, rather than a realistic military objective.

“Whether it’s an armed group or a political party, they all need public support.

Armed groups that have popular backing and political parties supported by the public are the ones that can represent their people’s political aspirations. So, whether it’s ARSA or another Bengali-related political organization, they have their own communities.

 AA leaders

They’re trying to organize and inspire them with hope — that’s just part of the usual mobilization process. So ARSA’s statement is also in that vein.”, he said.

Reports from local Rakhine media stated that ARSA has built new training camps near the Bangladesh border, close to Ukhia and Naikhongchari, north of Maungdaw Township.

Currently, ARSA has been launching sporadic attacks on AA (Arakan Army) bases along the Bangladesh border and is accused of assaulting, abducting, and killing civilians in Maungdaw, Buthidaung, and Rathedaung townships, according to local sources.

Military and political analysts believe that if ARSA were ever to seize territory in Rakhine, Maungdaw and Buthidaung would be the only possible areas.

However, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs analyst, told CNI News that it is impossible for ARSA to actually capture and govern Rakhine State.

“Anyone can make grand claims. But even survival is already difficult for them. Their relations with AA aren’t good either, and AA keeps winning successive victories. I don’t think it’s realistic — they’re just talking.”, she said.

Currently, the AA is prioritizing operations in northern Maungdaw, setting up bases, patrols, and offensives along the Mayu mountain range to drive ARSA out of the area.

A scene from inside Rakhine State

Political analyst U Kyi Myint commented that AA’s approach to handling ARSA was too soft and cautious.

“They’re being overly gentle. The responsible authorities will have to deal with it. I don’t want to say much, but I even wrote on Facebook that we won’t cooperate with infiltrators — we’ll only ally with those who share the same culture as the Rakhine people. That’s all I want to say.”, he said.

In the AA-controlled northern parts of Rakhine State, such as Maungdaw, Buthidaung, and Rathedaung, ARSA attacks have increased significantly throughout 2025.
Between May and October, around 50 civilians were killed in ARSA assaults, according to local Rakhine news agencies.

Observers note that ARSA has become more active than before in 2025, primarily targeting civilians rather than engaging in major military confrontations.

Military and political analysts are also questioning whether the AA can effectively contain ARSA’s expanding operations in northern Rakhine State.

CNI News

10 November 2025

The Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) is not legally favored in the upcoming election, but current political circumstances seem to tilt in its favor, according to U Li Paw Reh, chairman of the Lisu National Development Party (Dulei Party), speaking to CNI News.

“If the political situation were normal, things would be fair. But under the current situation, since the political environment is what it is, the USDP seems to have the advantage. They have been building a strong foundation for a long time, while some other political parties—both new and old—have not been able to build such a solid base. That’s why the USDP appears to be in a stronger position now. By ‘advantage,’ I mean, for example, their unopposed wins in 28 constituencies. The law itself doesn’t favor them, but due to the current political climate, they’ve ended up in a favorable position. That’s how we see it,” he said.

According to political analysts, in the first phase of the election scheduled for December 28, 2025, 28 USDP candidates have already secured victory since they are running unopposed, with no competitors from other parties.

List of candidates who have won before the election

The USDP is also the party fielding the largest number of candidates, with over 1,000 contesting constituencies nationwide.

Currently, several senior lieutenant generals from the military are expected to compete as USDP candidates in the upcoming election.

Sources indicate that within the USDP, differences in opinion may arise between the party’s long-standing members and new entrants from the military.

 USDP party members seen

Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs analyst, told CNI News:

“They’re basically playing their own game. Anyone with real potential has been blocked out—it’s a clear situation. The USDP just wants to win the majority of votes for itself and doesn’t intend to share power. Think about it—figures like Daw Thet Thet Khine could have contributed something for the people, but even such individuals are not given a chance. The party wants to keep everything within itself. There will likely be growing differences between the old USDP members and the new military-linked entrants. The generals joining the party may see it as an opportunity, but I think it could actually pose more danger for them. Conflicts and divisions are bound to emerge,” she said.

Although 57 parties have registered to contest in the election, the NLD and other credible opposition parties are not participating, leading many to predict that the USDP will win most of the constituencies.