CNI News

1 February 2025

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the People's Defense Force (PDF) are jointly launching offensives against the Myanmar Tatmadaw to capture Banmauk Town in Sagaing Region, adjacent to Kachin State and building up military strength, according to locals. 

The KIA-PDF joint forces have been launching an offensive against the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA) in Kyaungle, Pinhinkha, Hsettaw and Nayaka Villages near Banmauk since 27th January 2025.

Battles are severely breaking out between the two sides. 

While seeing the map based on Banmauk

Around 600 KIA-PDF forces operating in Homalin and Narmaw in Homalin Township were on their way to reinforce the offensive to capture Bham Mauk, said locals and revolutionary forces.

Banmauk is a town of great military strategic importance and It is also a commercial market for timber smugglers. 

At present, the KIA/PDF joint forces are launching an offensive to capture Banmauk and at the same time they are launching an offensive to capture Inndaw Town near Banmauk.

CNI News

1 February  2025

The State Administration Council has extended the state of emergency for another six months because stability and peace was still needed, announced at the meeting of the National Defense and Security Council. 

The SAC convened a meeting of the Defense Security Council on January 31, 2025, a day ahead of its 4th year in office, and the meeting discussed whether to extend the emergency period for another six months and decided to extend the state of emergency for another six months.

"There are still more tasks to be done to hold the general election successfully. Especially for a free and fair election, stability and peace is still needed. So, I present to extend the term of service for another 6 months to continue to meet the needs at a rapid pace" said Acting President Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

And then, members of the NDSC decided to extend the state of emergency for another six months. 

The Myanmar Tatmadaw took the State power on 1st February 2021 after overthrowing the NLD government, saying the National League for Democracy (NLD) was trying to form a government without solving the vote list dispute in the 2020 general election.

And then, the State Administration Council was formed and ruled the country. 

However, armed elements and democratic activists are making attempts to overthrow the SAC. currently, battles are severely breaking out across the country and the Myanmar Tatmadaw has lost control of several hundreds of its military camps and over 90 townships including the Northeast Command and the West Command.

Meanwhile, a general election would be held in 2025 and the State power would be handed over to the winning party, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the SAC. 

On the other hand, armed revolutionary forces have said that they would destroy the election without fail.

CNI News

1 February 2025

Although the US has suspended its international aids, China's influence over Myanmar politics could not be further increased, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News. 

The Donald Trump government has suspended its international aids for almost all development projects for 90 days because the expenditures for the projects will be reviewed.

The grants of the US international development agency (USAID) for Myanmar's news media businesses, education, health, humanity and refugees will be suspended as well.

Although the suspension of US aid projects could cause more serious harm to the public, there was no reason why China's influence over Myanmar politics could not be further increased, said U Than Soe Naing.

While Chinese President was being welcomed during his visit to Myanmar

" Because the US has suspended its international aids for three months, even young people who are in school are in a lot of trouble. In the same way, Myanmar refugee camps may also face food shortages. Our people have lost the opportunities that the US has given. But by reason of that, there is no reason why China's intervention will get worse because the whole country is waging the Spring Revolution. In any case, as the people are defending China's project from going ahead, the situation couldn't get any worse." he said.

The US, The country that provides the most development assistance to foreign countries in the world, announced that it has suspended all currently provided aids and any more of aids that had been planned except for its military aids to Israel and Egypt.

Because the US has suspended its aids to the International Rescue Committee (IRC) for 90 days, the health services in the refugee camps on the Myanmar-Thailand border have been suspended. And then, The Thai government would provide aids to the refugee camps, said Somsak Thepsutin, Thai Public Health Minister.

While seeing the children in a refugee camp

The US has the policy of its own and the policy was not related to the Chinese influence over Myanmar; China would do anything for its own interests, U Kyi Myint, a political commentator, told CNI News. 

" Th US policy (relating to the suspension of its international aids) is not related to Chinese influence over Myanmar. The US has the policy of its own. Trump seems like he doesn't care about anyone. But we shouldn't put blame on the US government. The current military government is also responsible. It recruits by force and arrests people with Section 505A. So, people have to flee to safety. China will do anything for its own interests." said U Kyi Myint.

Although the US government has suspended its aids which are being provided to other countries, As an exception, emergency sympathetic assistance would be allowed, said the US FM Marco Rubio.

CNI News

31 January 2025

The three northern ally groups (TNLA-MNDAA-AA) are no longer holding joint meetings and discussions as they used to and it is unusual for each group to hold separate meetings and issue statements, which military and political analysts are considering and discussing.

That situation was unique and except for the MNDAA that discussed ceasefire with the Myanmar Tatmadaw, it was questionable what China had known about other armed organizations, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News.

“The Northern Alliance is made up of the MNDAA, the TNLA and the AA. This time, the MNDAA alone discussed the ceasefire. So, what has China known about the two remaining groups? Can the SAC discuss with them? It must be watched. In the past, statements were issued in the name of the Northern Alliance. But now they issue statements separately. It is an unusual point." said U Thein Tun Oo.

The MNDAA, the TNLA and the AA launched Operation-1027 together and were able to capture many territories including Lashio and Laukkai. Each of the northern alliance waged battles in the region concerned and was able to capture territories. So, statements regarding political dialogue were individually issued, not as the Northern Alliance.

Doing like this was possible because of different region or because the SAC could not discuss with those three groups at the same time, it discussed with them separately, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs, told CNI.

While seeing the leader of the MNDAA and Lt-Gen Ko Ko Oo from the Myanmar Tatmadaw

" Because of regionally difference, they have to issue statements separately, I think. Because the SAC refuses to meet the three northern allies at the same time, it meet with the three groups separately, I heard. The places and levels they have gained are different. They will work together on the same things, and separate the different things. With this policy, when they carry out, they are strengthening their administration in their regions, I think. That's why they issue statements separately, I think." said Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw.

The AA started its military operations in Rakhine State on 13th November 2023 over two weeks later than Operation-1027 was launched. And then the AA has captured 14 townships and the West Command of the Myanmar Tatmadaw. According to the Haigen Agreement resulted from third meeting between the Northern Alliance and the Myanmar Tatmadaw held in China with China's mediation, a ceasefire agreement was reached in northern Shan State and they started a temporary ceasefire at 9:00 p.m. on 11th January 2024.

However, because battles resumed between the TNLA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw in June, the agreement was broken. At present, the MNDAA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw have ceased fire temporarily. Negotiations reportedly are being conducted to hold discussions between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the TNLA/the AA.

CNI News

30 January 2025

Instead of meeting with all the EAOs at the same time, the State Administration Council (SAC) probably would meet informally with EAOs separately, military and political analysts told CNI News. 

The SAC has already met with the MNDAA twice and a temporary ceasefire agreement has been reached between the two sides. The MNDAA was the origin of the dialogue and if the SAC had  already discussed with all three northern allies, it would have been the opening of the dialogue, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, an NCA signatory, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

" The discussion between the SAC and the MNDAA is the beginning of the dialogue. Later, if the SAC met with the two remaining northern allies - the TNLA and the AA, it would be the opening of the dialogue. If the UWSA, the NDAA and the SSPP are invited to discuss, they will surely come. And then, the 7 NCA signatories are ready to make a dialogue. Moreover, there are 7 NCA signatories that stand with the three northern allies. They can take part in the dialogue as well. 13 or 14 organizations could meet with the SAC informally." said Col. Khun Okkar.

While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the SAC and chairman of the RCSS

Although China had already met with three northern allies by the end of 2024, the SAC met only with the MNDAA. However, the SAC could meet with the TNLA in February, 2025 although the TNLA seemed to want to prolong, considering some people.

The reason why the TNLA wanted to prolong the discussion was because the MNDAA and the AA had already captured military commands of the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the TNLA had not captured any military command of the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the TNLA wanted to wage battles, pointed out some people. 

Later, because the objectives of ethnic armed groups are different, according to the alliance formation , it was not easy to hold an all-inclusive dialogue, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News.

While the 8th anniversary celebration of the NCA was being held

" It's likely that the SAC will meet with armed organizations separately, but it's not easy to discuss that the SAC will meet with an alliance or hold an all-inclusive dialogue because real ambitions of ethnic armed groups have emerged now. Ethnic armed groups are walking on different paths. The SAC probably might meet with ethnic armed groups separately. If so, what kind of negotiation will be conducted? We'll have to watch it, I think." said U Thein Tun Oo.

Planning for elections should not be a priority while armed conflicts are escalating and a ceasefire should be conducted first, which ASEAN countries has urged the SAC. If the election was held first, problems may be more complicated, pointed out military and political analysts.

CNI News

30 January 2025

Military and political analysts are considering differently up to where the Arakan Army (AA) will expand its military activities. 

The AA released on 27th January 2025 that it had captured the Moe Hti Taung military camp of the Myanmar Tatmadaw in Taung Goat Township, on the border of Rakhine State and Bago Region. 

The AA is creating a path to increase the momentum and speeding up its offensives while on the other hand, it has offered the Myanmar Tatmadaw to start a political dialogue. So, the AA was playing military and politics at the same time, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.

" The AA is achieving military victories and its military momentum is higher as well. Now it's captured about 90 percent of Rakhine State and has started intruding into Ayeyarwady and Magway Regions. Meanwhile, the AA started offering the Myanmar Tatmadaw to discuss politics. But because the military council doesn't trust the AA, it won't take this too seriously. But, in any case, it won't be possible for China not to take the AA seriously because the future of the Kyaukphyu Project has been in the AA's hand. The AA has created a situation in order to increase the momentum of the revolution while on the other hand, it might discuss with China and the military council. In any case, I hope the AA will take part in the revolution as a van." said U Than Soe Naing.

The AA released on 29th December 2024 that it would discuss and solve domestic problems through political means. 

While seeing the AA

However, there has been no discussion between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the AA up to now. When the AA captured towns in Rakhine State and places adjacent to Rakhine State, joint forces also participated with the AA and the AA's original intention was to retake Rakhine State, spokesperson of the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA) U Myo Kyaw told CNI News.

" In my opinion, when the AA captured towns in Rakhine State and places adjacent to Rakhine State, joint forces also took part together with the AA. The joint forces can't stop fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw because even if the AA alone is liberated, it can't live peacefully for long. No one can enjoy peace if the military dictators are not eliminated. Now there are three towns left, which the AA hasn't captured. This situation is just give and take to discuss and find an answer. If an answer can't be found, the AA might capture remaining towns starting from Sittwe." said U Myo Kyaw.

Battles have been breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the AA around the Ann-Padan Road since 11th January and battles are taking place in some places near the border of Rakhine State and Ayeyarwady Region as well as near Chin Su Village, Yegyi Township, Ayeyarwady Region, said in the statement released by the AA on 27th January 2025.

Moreover, three military camps of the Myanmar Tatmadaw in the places adjacent to the borders of Rakhine State, Bago Region, Ayeyarwady Region and Magway Region were captured by the AA which was released on 27th January 2025.

Battles are breaking out on the Ann-Padan Road in Ngaphe Township, Magway Region as well as around Sittwe. The AA is waging battles in Rakhine, Chin, Kachin, north Shan States, Bago, Ayeyarwady, Magway and Sagaing Regions and trying to gain the political level not lower than the confederation.

CNI News

30 January 2025

As the Kokang armed organization (the MNDAA) and the Arakan Army (AA) have attacked and captured military commands of the Myanmar Tatmadaw, the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) seemed to want to attack and capture Pyin Oo Lwin, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs analyst, told CNI News. 

On the other hand, although China and the SAC wanted to meet and discuss, the TNLA seemed to be prolonging, she said.

" Now that the open season has arrived, the TNLA seems to want to attack Pyin Oo Lwin, envying the abilities of the MNDAA and the AA that have military commands of the Myanmar Tatmadaw. I know Pyin Oo Lwin is in a very bad situation. The TNLA seems to want to  attack Pyin Oo Lwin. So, it seems to prolong to discuss politically. I don't think the military council can control Pyin Oo Lwin for long. So, the military council seems to want to cease fire as soon as possible." she said.

Because the TNLA was not able to withstand the Chinese pressure, it would have to meet and discuss with the SAC. 

But the Myanmar Tatmadaw making air strikes to the areas controlled by the TNLA, pointed out military and political analysts. In order to maintain the success of the Ta'ang revolution in the long term, it would cooperate with resistance forces from all over the country, announced the TNLA.

If the Myanmar Tatmadaw continued to launch air strikes, the TNLA could attack Pyin Oo Lwin, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.

" If the military council continue to launch air strikes, the TNLA could attack Pyin Oo Lwin. It can take part in Shan-Man Operation. The participation of the TNLA in Shan-Man Operation was later reduced due to Chinese pressure, but economic ties could increase. China wants to improve the flow of goods on the Muse-Mandalay Road. Negotiations will lead to it, I think." said U Than Soe Naing.

Although the TNLA is attacking to capture Taung Kham near Pyin Oo Lwin, it still is unable to move forward.

The temporary ceasefire agreement was reached between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the MNDAA under China's pressure, reported the Chinese government although the two sides did not release.

So, the TNLA and the AA might meet with the SAC in the near future, considered some people.

CNI News

30 January 2025

Myanmar's political problems could be solved domestically, chairman of the People's Party (PP) U Ko Ko Gyi told CNI News. The National Solidarity and Peacekeeping Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) and the Working Group of political parties met and discussed in Naypyidaw on 23rd and 24th January 2025.

U Ko Ko Gyi said the above regarding the meeting at the press conference held in his office in Yangon

" According to our study, political problems can be solved domestically. To tell you the nearest incident, there are office branches of the ANC party from South Africa across the world. While Nelson Mandella, leader of the ANC, was in prison, members of the party who struggled made the decisions. The political problems of Myanmar can't be solved from Washington D.C or Paris. Duwa Lahi La told his ministers to return to Myanmar, which means there is a political decision only within the country. Our political elements within the country only can solve political problems. Foreign countries can protest or denounce or impose sanctions economically. The practical political solution lies within the country." said U Ko Ko Gyi.

While he NSPNC and the Working Group of political parties were discussing

The Acting President of the NUG told his ministers to go back to Myanmar in order to rebuild the strength within the country at the cabinet meeting held on 26th November 2024.

It was reported that 43 agreements were signed at the meeting of the NSPNC and political parties, including matters relating to amendments of the constitution. Among the agreements, Myanmar is established as a union based on democracy and federalism, which was included in the amendments of the constitution.

Check and balance is important to democracy. So, the agreement was reached to organize the Union Election Commission and the Constitutional Court impartially and independently. It was necessary to support firm political parties on the path to democracy and federalism, said U Ko Ko Gyi.

While leader of the Working Group of political parties, U Ko Ko Gyi and chairman of the NSPNC, Lt-Gen Tun Tun Naung

" Only if the entire people encourage and support domestic politics, will democratic elements become strong. Political parties are formed from various backgrounds and different ideas. The people need to support firm political parties. There might be disagreements individually. But if we believe and make efforts for democracy and federalism, we can succeed. The people also need to support the parties that are continuously making attempts to win democracy and federalism." said U Ko Ko Gyi.

Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing urged armed organizations to renounce arms and run the election and told them the SAC would not grant what armed organizations demand; they should demand what they want from inside the Hluttaw in accordance with the law.

The SAC would hold a free and fair general election that reflected the true will of the voters, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing on 15th January 2025. The election would be held in 2025 and the State power would be handed over to the winning party, he said.

CNI News

30 January 2025

Government employees from Shwebo Township General Administration Office and Shwebo District General Administration Office and a Shwebo township police officer were arrested and taken action against, reported the State Administration Council (SAC) on 27th January. 

When a team led by Shwebo Township Administrator U Kyaw Naing and Shwebo Township Police Officer Than Zaw conducted check up of the visitor list in No. 4 Ward, Shwebo at about 7:00 p.m on 24th January 2025, they found a youth called Kyaw Min Khant coming from Kyauk Myit Village who stayed without a guest list declaration and took him to the Township Administration Office to register in the military service list.

And then, Thurein Nyunt, a junior clerk from Shwebo District General Administration Office, contacted Kyaw Min Khant's parents and told them that they would have to give 130 lakh kyats if they didn't want their son to do military service so that another youth could replace their son. After that, U Ko Ko Lay, father of Kyaw Min Khant, came and gave the money on 25th January 2025.

The money was divided and taken. Shwebo Township Police Officer, Than Zaw and Shwebo Township General Administration Office, a senior clerk Kyaw Khine Lat took 25 lakh kyats each and Thurein Nyunt, junior clerk from Shwebo District General Administration Office took 30 lakh kyats, and 50 lakh kyats was taken by Than Soe Htike who lives in No.10 Ward, Shwebo and who will be substituted, reported the SAC.

Those who abused the People's Military Service Law took the money would be effectively taken action against and 130 lakh kyats had been given back to the family of Kyaw Min Khant by officials concerned on 26th January.

Groups that call up those who are to serve in the military must carry out in accordance with the law and officials are taking steps to prevent bribery and substitutions, reported the SAC.

The People's Military Service Law was enacted in November 2010 and it took effect on 10th February 2024. Up to 9th batch of military service has been recruited.