Land claim for Muslims in Rakhine State could be western group's request

CNI News

1 May 2025

The call by the powerful opposition party Jamaat-e-Islami in Bangladesh for a separate and independent state for Muslims in Myanmar's Rakhine State may be a Western request, Rakhine politicians and political analysts told CNI News.

Bangladesh-based media outlets reported that discussions were held on the issue during a meeting between Jamaat-e-Islami and a top delegation from the Communist Party of China, which was in Bangladesh on April 27. The meeting reportedly discussed the issue of Muslim refugees, including the establishment of a separate and independent state in Rakhine State for Muslim refugees.

The territorial claim is a political statement, but it is unacceptable because it goes beyond Myanmar's sovereignty, and Myanmar's borders must be determined in accordance with the constitution, U Thein Tun Oo, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNI News.

“Normally, this is a political statement. This is a political act on the part of Bangladesh, but in reality, this is an act that violates our country’s sovereignty. This is unacceptable. How the borders of Myanmar are determined must be in accordance with our Constitution. Especially when Yunus came to power and Bangladesh leaned too much towards the West, they only utter Western-style words, I think. The main thing is how the Chinese delegation that went to Bangladesh responded. How they will continue to work. This needs to be monitored. As Myanmar is a sovereign country, all territorial decisions and determinations of our country must be in accordance with the Constitution. This land claim is something that Myanmar cannot accept." said U Thein Tun Oo.

While seeing delegates of the Chinese Communist Party and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami Party

Mohammad Taher, a leader of the Jamaat-e-Islami party, said that China plays an important role in the Myanmar context.

He also said that Bangladesh has hosted over 1 million Muslim refugees, and that providing them with shelter and food alone will not solve the Muslim refugee problem, and that resettling them in Rakhine State as a separate territory is the right solution, Business Standard reported.

U Tun Aung Kyaw, a member of the policy steering committee of the Arakan National Party (ANP), told CNI News that the demand for a separate area for Muslim refugees in northern Rakhine is not new, but Muslims have been persistently trying to gain Maungdaw district since the British colonial period.

He said that such a demand would not be accepted by not only the Rakhine people but also the people of Myanmar as a whole.

"It was even worse in 1942. When the British fled to India, they gave the Bengalis in Buthidaung and Maungdaw districts the best weapons of the Second World War to resist the Arakan offensive. There, in Maungdaw district, more than 30,000 Rakhine ethnic people were killed and more than 300 villages were burned down. Since then, they have been trying to establish a separate Bengali territory. The name Rohingya that they are talking about in Myanmar never existed in Myanmar's history. This has been rejected by government officials, parliaments, and all ethnic groups at the same time. "That is why the issue of establishing a separate territory will not be accepted by the people of Myanmar in any way." said U Tun Aung Kyaw.

While seeing Bengali refugees

Even now, they are demanding that the Bengalis in Myanmar be given ethnic status, disregarding historical facts.

Last March, Bangladesh Prime Minister Mohammad Yunus pledged to return Muslim refugees who have fled to Bangladesh to their homeland of Rakhine State by 2026. 

He also said that there must be a safe zone in Rakhine State for the Muslim refugees to return and settle with dignity.

During the SAC chairman and officials' visit to the BIMSTEC meeting in Bangkok, Thailand, the Myanmar Foreign Ministry and Bangladesh's Special Representative, discussed the repatriation of Muslim refugees. In those discussions, Myanmar has said that it will initially accept only 180,000 Muslims whose identities have been verified. 

Currently, fierce battles are taking place between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the AA in Rakhine State and the AA has controlled the Muslim-majority townships of Buthidaung, Maungdaw, and Rathedaung.

Cessation of fighting by powerful groups affects revolution

CNI News

1 May 2025

If powerful armed organizations stop waging battles, it could, it could have any impact on the current revolution, Col. Saw Kyaw Nyunt, spokesman for the EAO Alliance, told CNI News. 

Due to Chinese intervention, the Kokang National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) handed over Lashio city that it occupied on August 3, 2024 to the Myanmar Tatmadaw, which in turn took over the Kokang Special Region (1).

Similarly, there are speculations that the TNLA may also hold talks through the “Wa”. Colonel Saw Kyaw Nyunt, spokesperson for the 7 EAO Alliance, told CNI that if the powerful armed groups stop carrying out armed resistance, it could have some impact on the current path of the revolution.

“There are many revolutionary struggles being carried out by revolutionary forces in our country at present. Among these many, some are more or less related to each other, but there are many difficulties in creating a situation where they can work together as a great group. The TNLA and the MNDAA are powerful ethnic armed groups. If they stop the armed revolution, it will have some effect on the current armed revolution. Fighting will unavoidably continue in some areas amid the unusual political situation. Each organization has different views and perspectives on whether the cessation of fighting by powerful groups has weakened the revolution, I think." he said.

While seeing the the MNDAA, the AA and the TNLA

The Northern Alliance groups (TNLA-MNDAA-AA) jointly announced a one-month unilateral ceasefire from April 1 to 30 on April 1, 2025.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw that had announced a unilateral ceasefire from April 2 to 22 extended until April 30.

Whether the revolution is weakened or not depends on the mainland and if the NUG leaders can rise up, the country will be liberated quickly, U Kyi Myint, a political commentator told CNI News.

"Whether the revolution is weak or not depends on the mainland. The mainland has a population of 36 million, so it depends on that. In other places, the population is 800,000, 1 million, 2 million, and that's it. Rakhine is the largest, with only 3 million. Some EAOs tried hard and liberate themselves when China showed green light. If the NUG leaders on the mainland can rise up, our country will be liberated quickly. If they don't rise up, we won't be liberated." he said.

While seeing the KIA/PDF joint force

The National Unity Government (NUG) will work harder to achieve a major turning point in 2025, said the NUG Acting President Duwa Lashi La on April 17, 2025. Currently, the AA has controlled the towns of Thandwe, Gwa, Ann, Minbya, Mrauk-U, Maungdaw, Rathedaung, Buthidaung, Kyauktaw, Punnagyun, Manaung, Pauktaw, Taung Goad, and Myebon in Rakhine State.

Similarly, the TNLA has controlled Namkham, Nansang, Mantong, Namtu, Mong Ngo, Kyauk Mae, Nawng Cho, Kutkai, Thibaw, Momeik, Mabain in northern Shan State, and Mogok in Mandalay Region.

The MNDAA then controlled Theinni, Laukkai, Kon kyan, Phaungsai, Mongko, Chin Shwe Haw, and Kutkai in northern Shan State.

In addition, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has controlled the towns of Somprabum, Injangyang, Sadon, Chipwe, Sok Law, Phimaw, Panwa, Dodphongyang, Sinbo, Myo Hla, Mansi, Kan Pite Tee, Momauk, and the border trading town of Loi Gye in Kachin State.

The KIA-PDF also has controlled the towns of Shwe Pyi Aye, Phaungbyin, Pinlebu, and Khampat in Sagaing Region.

CNI News

30 April 2025

The Ta’ang National Liberation Organization (TNLA) will have to consider whether to negotiate or continue fighting in the current situation, Pa-O National Liberation Army (PNLO-NCA/S) Chairman Colonel Khun Okkar told CNI News.

Fierce battles are taking place between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the TNLA in the Taung Kham area of Naung Cho Township, northern Shan State. However, the TNLA's ally, the Kokang National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), was forced to withdraw from Lashio after China pressured it into a ceasefire and handed over Lashio to the Myanmar Tatmadaw.

Chairman Colonel Khun Okkar told CNI News that if the TNLA wants political rights, now is the best time to negotiate.

While seeing the TNLA force

"I think the TNLA will need to negotiate, whether to fight or negotiate. They will invite to negotiate, I think because China will need to intervene and negotiate. One of the Lashio Agreement is that UWSP/UWSA must take responsibility regarding the TNLA. It is believed that negotiations will be possible through the UWSA. I heard that the UWSA will take responsibility to negotiate and control the TNLA. China is behind the UWSA. I think the TNLA has been given a little time to think about whether they will negotiate or not. So the fighting is likely to continue. Now is the best time to discuss and negotiate the political rights that the TNLA wants, whether the TNLA wants a state or an autonomous region." he said.

Military and political analysts point out that China is trying to end armed conflicts on the one hand, while on the other hand, negotiating political rights for the armed groups.

Due to Chinese intervention, the Kokang National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) handed over Lashio city that it occupied on August 3, 2024, to the Myanmar Tatmadaw, which in turn the MNDAA took over the Kokang Special Region (1).

 While seeing  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and the SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing

The Myanmar Tatmadaw and the TNLA met in China in the third week of January 2025, but the talks ended without reaching an agreement. The two sides then agreed to discuss it again, but to this day, they have not met. 

U Htet Aung Kyaw, vice chairman of the National Democratic Force Party (NDF), told CNI News that if negotiations are held openly and without preconditions, a certain situation will emerge.

"Why are they currently engaged in armed conflict? If they want to establish a separate Palaung state, continue to fight for it. However, they want self-rule.They want to negotiate the extent of self-rule they want, so they are using this military method to increase our bargaining power. For that, it should be a situation where they can negotiate. They should talk about how much autonomy they want. I think if they can negotiate openly without any preconditions, they can see something." said U Htet Aung Kyaw.

The TNLA currently has controlled Namkham, Nansang, Mantong, Namtu, Mong Ngor, Kyaukme, Nawng Cho, Kutkai, Thibaw, Momeik, and Mabein in northern Shan State, and Mogok in Mandalay Region.

CNI News

30 April 2025

There  are considerations among military and political observers about the political advantage the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has gained from its capture of the Panwa area in Chipwi Township, Kachin State, which is rich in rare earth mineral.

Sai Htay Aung, chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI that the KIA currently has an economic advantage because it controls not only a region rich in rare earth mineral but also a region rich in jade and if the economy is strong, political change can be successfully implemented.

“KIA has an economic advantage. It has rare earth deposits. Myanmar is the third largest producer of rare earth in the world, but its contribution to the country is low. The KIA also owns jade mines. If the economy improves, it will build its power, as is the custom of armed groups. If the economy improves, it can also bring about a political change. The state doesn't get revenue from that rare earth and jade.  We will have to work hard to generate tax revenue from rare earths and jade for the entire country. I see this as something the state should do either through political dialogue or through attack." said U Sai Htay Aung.

While seeing a rare earth extraction site

China is the main buyer of rare earth minerals from Myanmar. He also pointed out that although the KIA currently has occupied the rare earth mineral-producing region, China should purchase it through a government-to-government G to G system. Currently, the KIA is attempting to capture key areas throughout Kachin State and has been fighting to capture Bhamo for about four months.

Bhamo is the second capital of Kachin State after Myitkyina, where the North Command is located, and is strategically and economically important. 

U Khun Sai, who is involved in the peace process, told CNI that while the KIA may be in a position to negotiate politically with China and the SAC due to the areas currently occupied by the KIA, there is a situation where China and the SAC can mutually control the KIA.

"In the current situation, KIA may have bargaining power. But it's a situation where China or the SAC can control the KIA because China can coerce the KIA while the SAC can continue to fight against the KIA." said U Khun Sai.    

While seeing the KIA/PDF joint force

Currently, the Myanmar military is re-attacking the Hpakant region, a jade mining region controlled by the KIA, and military and political analysts consider that this is being done for economic reasons due to the resources.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw had to give up the Panwa region, which is rich in rare earth minerals. If it gives up the lucrative jade mining area of Hpakant, it would hurt the Myanmar Tatmadaw more.

Similarly, the KIA is expanding its military territory in Sagaing Region, which is rich in rare earth minerals, and is also working with the Arakan Army (AA), local PDFs, and other armed groups to gain access to the sea and the Indian border in Rakhine State.

CNI News

29 April 2025

More than 400 locals from Kyaungle and Pinkha Villages in Banmauk Township, Sagaing Region, have been abducted by the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) since January and have not been released to this day, according to those close to family members and locals.

On January 16, 2025, the KIA troops entered Kyaungle and Pinkha villages in Banmauk Township, set up military camps, and on the 19th of January, abducted 465 locals and left.

Those arrested on January 19, 2025, have not been released to this day, and their condition has been unknown, said family members and locals.

“KIA troops entered Pinkha village on January 16, 2025. On the 19th, they abducted 465 villagers. None of them have been released yet. The family members who remained in the village are worried because they have not received any news so far. We demand their immediate release. Various international and domestic organizations also pretend to be unaware of the human rights violations committed by the KIA, only condemning other groups when they do so. Therefore, we also want the international community to take action against the KIA's human rights violations." said a Banmauk local.

While seeing Kyaungle and Pinkha Villages in Banmauk Township

Family members and locals said that 465 locals from Kyaungle and Pinkha villages were arrested and taken away by the KIA and taken to Khin Bwe-Yar Bwe Village, Nantat Village Tract, Banmauk Township.

Family members and locals said that among the 465 arrested locals, there are 8 people over 70, 5 novices, 12 pregnant women, and 204 children. 

The KIA is leading the People's Defense Forces (PDF) in Banmauk Township and is waging battles to capture Banmauk Town, while also recruiting local people from nearby villages.

On September 4, 2022, the KIA and PDF joint forces also arrested and killed a Shanni ethnic monk from Naungpat Village, Banmauk Township.

Currently, battles are taking place in Banmauk Township between the KIA/PDF joint force and the Shanni National Army (SNA).

CNI News

29 April 2025

A 7.7-magnitude earthquake and subsequent aftershocks struck Sagaing, near Mandalay, Myanmar, on March 28, affecting 128,965 households and 629,206 people, said Vice Senior General Soe Win, chairman of the National Disaster Management Committee.

He made the remarks at a meeting of the National Disaster Management Committee held on April 25, 2025. 

The powerful earthquake that struck on March 28 caused damage in 10 regions/states, including Nay Pyi Taw Council, and affected 128,965 households and 629,206 people, Vice Senior General Soe Win said.

According to the Disaster Management Center's April 23 report, 48,656 people have been relocated to 135 relief camps, 159,239 people have relocated on their own, and 421,311 people are still living in their homes despite the earthquake.

Similarly, in 10 regions and states including the Nay Pyi Taw Council area, according to the initial list on April 24, 63,854 residential houses, 6,752 schools, 5,474 monasteries and nunneries, 5,342 pagodas, 613 other religious buildings, 576 hospitals/clinics, 56 railways, 271 roads, 198 expressway sections, 586 dams/embankments, 172 bridges, and 353 transformers were damaged or destroyed.

While the National Disaster Management Committee meeting was being held on April 26, 2025

SAC Vice Chairman Vice Senior General Soe Win said that the damage should be divided into short-term, medium-term, and long-term for reconstruction and completed in stages. Internationally, short-term rehabilitation works are usually carried out for 6 to 12 months, medium-term rehabilitation works for 1 to 2 years, long-term rehabilitation works for 2 to 5 years, and if necessary, up to 10 years and if the sectors are divided based on the country's resources, rehabilitation and reconstruction works can be carried out as quickly as possible, he said.

The people are facing difficulties because cement and building materials, which are essential for the reconstruction work, are being sold at higher prices.

Myanmar's nine cement factories were producing 30,700 tonnes (614,000 bags) per day before the earthquake, but since the earthquake, six factories have been producing only 17,100 tonnes (342,000 bags) and production will be increased to 22,100 tonnes (442,000 bags) of cement by May 15 said the Union Minister for Industry said at the meeting.

In addition, The SAC will work to increase production to 32100 tons (642,000 bags) of cement in September and the price has been set for the relevant factories to sell cement to earthquake-affected areas at 17,000 kyats per bag, he said.

Then, the SAC Chairman provided 50 billion kyats for the reconstruction of the earthquake-hit Sagaing Region, 60 billion kyats for Mandalay Region, 10 billion kyats for the Naypyidaw Council Area, and 5 billion kyats for Shan State.

Currently, there have been 155 aftershocks in Myanmar since March 28th to April 23rd. Most of the aftershocks were minor earthquakes with an average magnitude of 4 or below, and only one earthquake with a magnitude of 5 or above occurred. There have been no aftershocks since April 23.

CNI News

28 April 2025

The Ministry of Education has announced that the matriculation exam will be retaken after the earthquake that struck Myanmar on March 28 caused schools to collapse, catch fire, and destroy exam answer sheets. 

This announcement has sparked controversies over whether or not students should be required to retake the matriculation exam.

Earthquake-affected students should not be asked to retake the matriculation exam because they have already suffered psychological and physical damage from the natural disaster, Dr. Nyo Nyo Thin, founder of the Yangon Watch, told CNI News.

“Earthquake-affected students should not be asked to retake the matriculation exam. They should have passed the exam. But those who should not pass will be included. Later, relevant entrance exams should be held. Having to retake this exam is a huge burden for these children, their parents, and for over 60,000 students." she said.

While seeing students who were sitting for the matriculation exam

On March 28, 2025, while examinations were being conducted at Mandalay University, a powerful earthquake destroyed the main building of Mandalay University. 

The Myanmar Examinations Department announced that 376,956 answer sheets of 62,954 candidates from Kachin State, Sagaing Region, Mandalay Region and Nay Pyi Taw Council Area were destroyed in the fire.

Therefore, the Examination Department announced that students from regions and states damaged by the earthquake will be asked to retake the matriculation exam from June 16 to 21, without holidays.

If students from areas where exam papers were destroyed by the earthquake were allowed to pass the exam exceptionally, they should consider the children whose marks have not yet been released, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News.

While rescue workers were working to rescue a collapsed employee housing complex due to the earthquake.

The Ministry of Information announced that the number of students who took the matriculation exam was 208,889 in the 2024-2025 academic year, including candidates from foreign examination departments. 

The People's Pioneer Party (PPP) said that forcing students to retake the exam would create an unnecessary burden on the students and their parents, and teachers affected by the earthquake.

A magnitude 7.7 earthquake centered in Sagaing, near Mandalay, Myanmar, on March 28 killed around 4,000 people, injured more than 5,000, and left more than 100 missing. In addition, homes, schools, government offices, staff housing, hotels, religious buildings, and roads and bridges have been destroyed and are in urgent need of reconstruction.

CNI News

28 April 2025

China could provide guarantees to the armed groups to achieve their political goals in order that armed conflicts could be resolved, Dr. Aye Maung, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), told CNI News.

Due to China's brokered engagement, the Kokang Army (MNDAA) has handed over the Lashio City which it had occupied on August 3, 2024 to the Myanmar Tatmadaw and it has taken control of the Kokang Special Region (1).

Then, on April 18, 21, and 22, the Myanmar Tatmadaw re-entered Lashio with military convoys and prepared to re-establish administrative mechanisms.

While seeing the Myanmar Tatmadaw convoy returning to Lashio

Dr. Aye Maung said that China is trying to end the armed conflict on the one hand, and on the other hand, it is negotiating to give the armed groups political rights.

“China does not accept any country’s interference in Myanmar’s internal affairs, and while it is moving in the direction of wanting Myanmar to remain stable and peaceful, it seems to want to address the root causes of all the current armed conflicts. Therefore, it seems that China is actively cooperating within Myanmar to end the armed conflict, and it seems that China had negotiated with the Myanmar government. Similarly, China seemed to be negotiating with the major armed groups on the Chinese border, in a way, guaranteeing their political ambitions. Similarly, the Myanmar government is likely to negotiate to ensure the political objectives of these armed groups. I think this is a path that China has pioneered." he said.

While seeing commercial vehicles

There are indications that even if the Myanmar Tatmadaw regains control of Lashio, it will still be impossible to resume trade unless it can regain control of the towns along the China-Burma trade route, such as Kutkai, Theinni, Thibaw, Kyaukme, and Naungcho.

Therefore, military observers also point out that China could remove EAOs from all towns/villages along the China-Myanmar border trade route (Union Highway) through negotiation or pressure. China is controlling both sides and sharing opportunities to achieve stability in Myanmar, Colonel Khun Okkar, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), which signed the NCA, told CNI News.

"China chooses stability over peace. Only then can it continue to implement its business and its projects. China controls everything to ensure stability kind of. Give him the rights he wants, and you take the rights you want. It's just the recognition of the self-administered zones desired by the “Wa” and Kokang. And by returning Lashio to the Myanmar Tatmadaw, it is a way of restoring dignity. The border trade route is belong to everyone." said Col. Khun Okkar.

China will continue to push forward the Kunming Peace Talks process and accelerate efforts to end conflicts and achieve peace in Myanmar, including stabilizing the China-Myanmar border, said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun on April 22, 2025.

CNI News

28 April 2025

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA), according to its military objects, could demand a “two systems” model of governance in one country, like the “Wa” Army, U Khun Sai, who is involved in the peace process, told CNI News. 

Currently, other armed groups in Myanmar are demanding and fighting for the same level of self-determination and self-governance enjoyed by the United Wa State Army (UWSA).

The KIA could continue to dominate the entire Kachin State, and could also carry out more than that, said U Khun Sai.

"There is no doubt that the KIA will continue to control the entire Kachin State. It could be more than that. However, I think the main thing is that it will be limited to the currently defined Kachin State. I could be wrong. The KIA, like the “Wa,” can demand a one-country, two-system model. "However, I think they would be more accepting if it were fully federal." he said.

Military and political analysts have assessed the KIA's operation, which began in early March 2024, as of strategic importance.

The KIA lost territories militarily between 2011 and 2015, but did not suffer much political loss during that period. However, there are indications that it lost a lot of political as well as military power between 2015 and 2020. 

While seeing the UWSA(Ye Aung Thu)

However, analysts point out that the KIA is gaining both military and political advantage when it could seek to recover politically and gain military advantage after the political change in 2021.

The KIA's military strategy is to dominate territorial security and is known to have the goal of occupying the entire northwestern region of Myanmar, both geographically and politically.

However, it is not easy to capture the entire northwest region. Sai Htay Aung, chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) National Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News that the KIA’s rise to power is partly due to support from Western countries.

"It is not easy for the KIA to take over the entire northwest region. Now give the KIA autonomy in Kachin State. The KIA will be revolutionized by the Shanni people.

The KIA's current rise to power is also due to Western support. Because the KIA can work together with both western countries and China, its power is growing bigger. But the central government must control it. Shanni people in Kachin State don't accept the KIA at all." he said.

The KIA, which was formed in 1961, has three brigades based in northern Shan State and eight in Kachin State.