CNI News
26 May 2025
Each state in the confederation has its own military, making it a separate entity and posing a great danger to the union, Sai Ai Paung, chairman of the Shan and Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP), told CNI News.
He also said that ethnic groups should be allowed to govern their own regions under a federal system and remain in the Union, and therefore, there is a need for open discussions at the political roundtable.
“Federalism means that the Union is united. In your own region, you govern yourself, share resources, and taxes fairly with the Union. That's the way it is. The confederation is dangerous in every state. Why did the Russian Union collapse? Because of the confederation. In a confederation, every state has its own army. It seems to exist separately. It's a great danger to the Union.In a federal system, it allows ethnic groups to govern their own regions to govern themselves, to remain in the union, to enjoy equal rights, to share them fairly, the main thing is to discuss peacefully and openly at the roundtable. I think it's best for the country if all the armed groups can peacefully discuss things around the political table," said Sai Ai Paung.
While seeing some armed leaders and Senior General Min Aung Hlaing
Currently, efforts are being made to build a federal and democratically based union, but some ethnic armed groups are even expressing goals such as confederation and independence.
In peace talks, ethnic armed groups are only demanding ethnic issues and are not demanding regional issues.
They should not be organizations that represent a group of people, but rather organizations that represent the region. The ethnic armed groups are trying to gain their own territories, so the Myanmar Tatmadaw will have to continue fighting, said the SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.
A confederation is less dangerous than establishing a separate country, but more dangerous than a true federal union.
If the ethnic groups focus on federalism, they should not demand more than federalism, Colonel Khun Okkar, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), which has signed the NCA, told CNI News.
While seeing the KIA, the AA, the TNLA and the MNDAA leaders
"A confederation is less dangerous than the establishment of a separate country, but more dangerous than a true federal union. In a federal union, all ethnic groups can enjoy equal rights. For the entire Union, it is a collective defense system. If we can create systems that foster collective economic development, then federalism is the best model for our country. However, if the unity becomes weak, some states and some peoples may demand something higher than federalism, such as a confederation. But such a demand could harm the federal government. In fact, if the focus is really on federalism, it's not appropriate to ask for more," he said.
The Arakan Army (AA) has said it will seek political status no lower than the “Wa” or achieve confederation status. The EAOs that have achieved confederation status beyond the federal system in Myanmar are the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA).
The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) Vice Chairman Lt. Gen. Gun Maw had also expressed that ethnic people would have considered something higher federalism by 2025.
Furthermore, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) Secretary-General Major General Tar Bone Kyaw said on August 18, 2022 that the Palaung people must prepare in advance to be ready if the situation arose to establish a country.
