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CNI Articles
28 January 2025
Wars have been breaking out in the northern part of Myanmar since under the governments led by U Thein Sein and Daw Aung San Suu Khi until that led by the SAC.
China has been brokering in order to stop these battles and hold peace talks up to now.
When the roles and positions of the three northern allies and China's role regarding these battles were analyzed, unique positions of themselves were found.
Three northern allies jointly attacked the Myanmar Tatmadaw under the governments led by U Thein Sein and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and attended peace talks together. They didn't accept if one of them was only invited to peace talks. They often jointly announced the ceasefire. In the same way, the announcements were jointly made.
In the political conflict that erupted after the military seized power in the following of overthrowing the NLD government on 1st February 2021, saying that the NLD led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was trying to form a government without solving the vote list dispute in the 2020 general election, if you study the policies of the three Northern Alliances and China, you will find that they are unique.
After the NLD government was overthrown, NLD leaders, members of the Hluttaw pro-democracy activists and artists changed from the street politics to armed revolution.
While seeing leaders from the TNLA, the MNDAA and the AA
And then, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) launched Operation-1027 on 27th October 2023 to regain control of the Kokang Special Region-1 that it lost control of the region in 2009 and attacked the Myanmar Tatmadaw and captured many towns in northern Shan State.
The Arakan Army (AA), the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), the Bamar People's Liberation Army (BPLA), the Burma National Revolutionary Army (BNRA), the Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF), the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the MDY PDFs and the PDFs attacked the Myanmar Tatmadaw in the operation. The TNLA led and waged the 2nd wave of Operation-1027 in northern Shan State and Mandalay Region on 25th June 2024 and Shan-Man Operation was launched at the same time.
During Operation-1027, the MNDAA Laukkai, Kon Kyan, Phaungsai, Chin Shwe Haw, Theinni, Monko and Kyukote including the Northeast Command of the Myanmar Tatmadaw while the TNLA captured Mogok, Momeik, Kyaukme, Nawnghkio, Nansang, Mangtong, Namtu, Mong Ngor, Kutkai, Thibaw and Namkham. In the same way, the MDY-PDF also captured Madaya, Thabeikkyin and Sintku. Moreover, the AA has captured Buthidaung, Rathedaung, Mrauk U, Myebon, Rambre, Kyauktaw, Ponnagyun, Maungdaw, Taung Goat, Minbya, Pauktaw, Thandwe, Gwa and Ann Townships in Rakhine State as well as Paletwa Township in Chin State.
Besides the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has captured townships where trade is being conducted including China-Myanmar border trade gates in Kachin State.
Because the Myanmar Tatmadaw had to be retreating militarily, China was worried. Meanwhile, because online Fraud (Zha Pian), illegal businesses were widespread in Myanmar, China has become deeply involved in Myanmar's affairs.
While seeing former joint statement by three northern allies
So, China demanded the SAC and the Myanmar Tatmadaw to crack down the Zha Pian, but they didn't tackle it effectively. That is why, three northern allies showed the strategy to combat the Zha Pian to China and launched town capturing battles.
China supported arms and ammunition to the three northern allies for Operation-1027, said diplomats local and abroad as well as armed fighters.
The three northern allies made preparations to extend their operations from northern Shan State, Rakhine State to Naypyidaw, the center of power for the SAC and the Myanmar Tatmadaw.
However, China considered Myanmar could fall apart because there was no force that could control the central authority. So, it brought Myanmar back onto the negotiating track.
The Myanmar Tatmadaw, the SAC, and the three northern allies could not overcome China's will and they had to hold discussions.
There is one thing unusual. The three northern allies usually worked together on any issue under the governments led by U Thein Sein and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, but under the government led by the SAC, they have changed their policy to individual performance.
For example, the three northern allies don't release joint statements anymore regarding ceasefire, political discussion, peace talks brokered by China, protection of China's projects and investments but individually only.
While seeing Chinese PM and the Chairman of the SAC
In the same way, Myanmar government and the Myanmar Tatmadaw often allowed foreign countries to take part in the peace process as observers in the past, but have allowed China's representatives to attend in the discussions between the SAC and three northern allies.
So, questions whether war in northern Myanmar has been China's game have emerged. The policy that Myanmar citizens only must solve their domestic affairs has to be following China's game, which is food for thought.
Whether stakeholders will allow China as its game in order that the war in northern Myanmar and Myanmar political crisis can be overcome or can change it into their game must be watched.
Moreover, in shaping the future of Myanmar, will Myanmar become the future country shaped whether by China or by Myanmar citizens? It must be watched.

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CNI News
28 January 2025
The chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC), Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, said that no means or action could destroy the friendship between Myanmar and China.
He said the above during his attendance to the celebration of the Chinese New Year Day, the Year of the Snake, 2025.
Organizations from local and abroad that don't want friendly relationship of the two countries - Myanmar and China - are using various ways to cause dissension and officials and citizens all from the two countries need to take special care, said the chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC).
"The friendship between Myanmar and China that has existed for so many years could not be destroyed by any means or action, which needs to be proved." he said.
Local armed organizations are trying to overthrow the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the SAC across the country. So, battles are breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and armed organizations.
China is putting pressure on the MNDAA, the TNLA, the AA and the KIA to suspend battles and hold peace talks while democratic forces, some foreign countries and some armed elements are carrying out anti-China movements within the country and abroad.
There are obstacles to investment activities, including Chinese economic projects in Myanmar. Chinese consulate in Mandalay, Myanmar was bombed.
Moreover, security measures have also been beefed up at the Chinese embassy in Yangon.
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CNI News
27 January 2025
The National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) and the Working Group of the political parties met and discussed measures that should be taken to ensure peace and stability in the country in Naypyidaw on 24th January 2025.
Conditions for reorganization of the Working Group and matters relating to amendment of the constitution in 2025 were discussed at the meeting.
In the same way, the measures that should be taken to ensure peace and stability in the country, issues related to meeting the needs of the people legally, the current political landscape and matters relating overcome the crisis together by the government, the Tatmadaw and the people were discussed at the meeting.
Suggestions for increasing re-entry of the PDFs into the legal frame and increasing recruitment under the People's Military Service Law were discussed as well.
At present, battles are breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and armed groups across the country and the Myanmar Tatmadaw has lost control of several hundred military camps including the Northeast Command and the West Command as well as over 90 townships.
There has been an increase in the number of the thefts and robberies in Yangon, Mandalay and Naypyidaw. Moreover, Young people are going missing and the rule of law has been weak.

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CNI News
27 January 2025
Ayeyarwady Region is, according to the military strategy of the Myanmar Tatmadaw, very important, spokesperson of the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA), U Myo Kyaw told CNI News.
In the border areas of Bago Region, Magway Region and Ayeyarwady Region, which border Rakhine State, battles are severely breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the Arakan Army (AA), reported the AA on 20th January 2025.
The coalition forces opposing the Myanmar military might strengthen their cooperation and Ayeyarwady Region is, according to the military strategy of the Myanmar Tatmadaw, very important, spokesperson of the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA), U Myo Kyaw told CNI News.
"Now, in the revolution, the Arakan Army is very far ahead. The people from other States and Regions trust and rely on the AA and cooperate. When they cooperate, in cooperation with the AA, armed groups staying near Gwa, Taung Goat and Ann Townships and opposing the State Administration Council are fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw. Their cooperation may be strong. Ayeyarwady Region and Yangon Region are chiefly important to the administration and existence of the SAC. Ayeyarwady Region is, according to the military strategy of the Myanmar Tatmadaw, very important. If the SAC lost control of Ayeyarwady Region, it would be overthrown, I believe." said U Myo Kyaw.
While seeing the AA
Battles have been breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the AA around the Ann-Padan Road since 11th January and battles are breaking out in some places of Ayeyarwady Region adjacent to Rakhine State and near Chin Su Village, Yegyi Township, said in the AA's statement.
The AA reported on 23rd January 2025 that it would step up its offensive soon for the liberation of the whole Ayeyarwady valley in Magway Region.
There needed to have military alert in Ayeyarwady Region, said Vice Sr-Gen Soe Win, Deputy Chairman of the SAC during his trip to Pathein on 27th December 2024.
While seeing Yekyi Town, Ayeyarwady Region
The rice market could become chaotic if military operations were stepped up and lots of IDPs could enter Yangon Region; it was necessary to find an answer for the peace by discussing, chairman of the Arakan National Network (ANN) U Tin Htoo Aung told CNI News.
" If the military operations were stepped up in Ayeyarwady Region, the rice market may be chaotic. The transportation between Yangon and Ayeyarwady Region will be more difficult. Moreover, IDPs from Ayeyarwady Region could enter Yangon Region. Both the SAC and the AA have announced that they are ready to discuss politics. It's necessary to put their announcements into practice, sponsored by powerful countries." said U Tin Htoo Aung.
Because battles became severe in the places of Ayeyarwady Region adjacent to Rakhine State, locals from Chaungtha and Shwe Thaung Yan Beaches fled to safety since 19th January and there have been over 20,000 IDFPs now.

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CNI News
26 January 2025
Without holding dialogues with all the stakeholders as a first priority, if the election was held straigt, the problem would become more complicated and unstable, military and political analysts told CNI News.
Planning for elections should not be a priority while armed conflict was escalating, urged ASEAN members.
Security must be made more stable and reliable than it is now if the election is held in 2025, director of the Thayninga Institution for Strategy Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News.
" In which townships will elections be held? Is it possible to hold the elections given the security situation? Depending on that, it may be decided to hold the election later. The SAC has said that elections would be held in 2025. If the election is held in 2025, security must be made more stable and reliable than it is now." he said.
ASEAN members urged the Myanmar delegation that attended the meeting to carry out matters regarding ceasefire with all the armed organizations in Myanmar and to allow
humanitarian assistance, said Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hassan at the press conference held after the meeting of ASEAN ministers in Langkawi Island, on 19th January.
Moreover, former diplomat Othman Hashim appointed as Malaysia's special envoy to Myanmar said that he would persuade all the organizations in Myanmar in order to implement the five point consent regarding the Myanmar issue.
It was agreed that dialogue should be prioritized over elections. A dialogue might arise before the election, chairman of the PNLO-NCA.S, an NCA signatory, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.
" It is agreed that election should be second priority and dialogue is first. If the election is held first, the problem could complicate problems further and be unstable, So, dialogues should be held formall or informally. And then, only if somewhat stability can be built, the election should be held. The ASEAN, international community, the UN, the EU and China have the idea of doing like this." he said.
According to the current situation, although it doesn't seem to hold a great dialogue, if the election is surely held, a dialogue should be held before the election, considered some people.
Moreover, if the SAC handed over the power to the National Defense and Security Council (NDSC), the NDSC could hold the election in two separate rounds, which there are considerations.

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CNI News
26 January 2025
If a true federal system was to be implemented in Myanmar, anti-federalist tendencies should be eliminated, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.
There were anti-federalist tendencies in Myanmar although everyone is demanding federalism aloud, he said.
" Everyone wants federalism. It's not easy to win it, but it's not difficult as well. Every one is saying aloud that they want federalism. Both the ruling organization and the revolutionary organizations are saying like this. Some revolutionary organizations have tendencies towards confederation or independence. If all the organizations want a true federal union from the bottom of their hearts, there is no reason that we don't win the federalism." said Col. Khun Okkar.
The Arakan Army (AA) had said that it wanted confederation that was not lower than the UWSA or independence while the TNLA urged its people to get ready if a country of theirs was built in future.
In the same way, EAOs might demand something higher than federalism in 2025, said Lt-Gen Gun Maw, a leader of the KIA.
While seeing a person studying the 2008 constitution
According to the current situation of Myanmar, if the federalism was used in Myanmar, the 2008 constitution must be withdrawn, considered military and political analysts.
There are many provisions in the 2008 Constitution that contradict the federal principle and the army was not included in the national politics of the federal countries.
So, federalism could not implemented under the 2008 constitution, they said. Myanmar political landscape has been just like barking the wrong tree since the Panglong Agreement was signed.
This year, stakeholders needed to try together to heal the wounds and heal with correct medicine, U Khun Sai taking part in the peace process, told CNI News.
" According to the Panglong Agreement and subsequent meetings, everyone agreed that this country should be a federal state. But in practice, instead of creating a federal state, they created a unitary state. This is just like barking the wrong tree. This year, it's necessary to try together so as to heal the wounds with correct medicine, which I want to urge stakeholders." said U Khun Sai.
To repeal the 2008 constitution depended on military and political negotiations, considered military and political analysts. It was neither easy nor difficult to use the federalism because everyone wanted it; it was necessary that they all really wanted it, they considered.

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CNI News
26 January 2025
If the State Administration Council handed over the State power to the National Defense and Security Council (NDSC), the NDSC could hold the election in two separate rounds, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP) Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News.
The chairman of the SAC Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing said on 15th January 2025 that the SAC would hold a free and fair general election without fail.
According to the constitution, if the SAC handed over the power to the NDSC, the NDSC would have to hold the election in six months and it could the election in two separate rounds, said Dr. Aye Maung to CNI News.
" Will the SAC be transformed on 31st January 2025? Will the two six month tenures be renewed? The SAC will weigh it. If the SAC hand over the power to the NDSC, according to the constitution, the NDSC will have to hold the election in six months. The chairman of the SAC has said that SAC would hold the election. It might be held in May. If the SAC was worried that it wouldn't be able to hold the election in six months. The SAC could hand over the power to the NDSC. According to the constitution, The NDSC will have to hold the election in six months. The constitution doesn't designate the election will be held in one go. So, the NDSC might hold the election in two separate rounds." said Dr. Aye Maung.
While Sr-Gen Min Hlaing was meeting with political parties
The election would be held in 2025 and the State power would be handed over the State power to the winning party, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing. But he didn't say the exact date when the election will be held.
International monitoring groups would be allowed to monitor the election, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing. Monitoring groups from local and abroad would be allowed to monitor the election, said chairman of the Union Election Commission.
The SAC could renew its tenure anymore and if the election was held, it would have to hold before the end of July, U Khun Sai, a person taking part in the peace process told CNI News.
" I haven't heard that the power will be handed over to the NDSC. Chances are that the SAC will renew its tenure. And then it could hand over the power to the NDSC before six month long period. To the best of my knowledge, the election will be held in the third quarter. The SAC will have to announce the date of election to be held two months before the election is held. If the election is held, it will be held before the end of July" said U Khun Sai.
While the UEC was meeting with political parties
The ASEAN members has urged the SAC to start dialogues without giving priority to the election on 19th January 2025.
The Chinese government has said that it would help in order that the election could be successfully held.
In the same way, Russia would help so as to be able to hold the election, said the Deputy Chairman of the State Duma during his meeting with the chairman of the Union Election Commission of Myanmar on 4th December 2024.

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CNI News
25 January 2025
It was necessary to value the life of a soldier of the Myanmar Tatmadaw which was difficult for many people to own it, said chairman of the State Administration Council.
He said the above while he was inspecting the military training school and the Tatmadaw Television Broadcasting Corps in Taung Nyo Cantonment.
"Our country's current population is about 52 million, with 47 percent male and 53 percent female. Of them, only a small number of people have embraced military service. So, it's necessary to value of the life of a soldier because they can serve the State defense and security duties." said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, adding that it was necessary for soldiers who are serving noble duties for the sake of the State and the people to be proud of themselves and to fulfill the assigned responsibilities.
Officers and soldiers were diligently carrying out national defense and security duties on the front lines and their families also lived together and were filling with virtue.
He recognized and congratulated on their work for the sake of the State and the people, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.
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CNI News
25 January 2025
Those who wrote news that encourages terrorism would be taken action against in accordance with existing laws, said Union Minister for Information, U Maung Maung Ohn during his meeting with the Myanmar Press Council in Yangon on 21st January 2025.
" News media must avoid writing pieces of news that encourages terrorists, that causes panic among the people, and that will destroy the peace and stability of the country and those who don't comply with the warning will be taken action against in accordance with existing laws; it's necessary to let news media know widely; I want to urge the press council to cooperate so as not to prevent writing pieces of news like this." said Minister U Maung Maung Ohn.
The council can perform its duties freely in line with the law, and needs to oppose the destructive actions of terrorists and firmly stand with the public in media means.
While seeing Minister U Maung Maung Ohn was meeting with the Myanmar Press Council
Moreover, it should express positive news refraining from informal writing styles affecting the government and Tatmadaw based on misinformation, he said.
The current Myanmar news world was going to two extremes and those who were writing in accordance with the rules of media ethics became fewer. Moreover, protections for journalists were also very weak, pointed out Myanmar journalists.
It was necessary to designate clearly which kind of news was one that encouraged terrorism and restrictions on avoiding writing that could harm the government and the Tatmadaw presumably meant that biased pieces of news must be written, pointed out Myanmar journalists.
While seeing Myanmar journalists (Photo-Frontier Myanmar)
" While the chairman of the SAC is inviting even armed groups and terrorist groups to discuss politics, if the journalists will be arrested because they wrote pieces of news that encourage terrorism and that destroy the peace and stability of the state, is it just and fair? It should be reconsidered, I think. The authorities should designate clearly which kind of news encourages terrorism." said a Myanmar journalist.
If the SAC took action against journalists, it could take action against journalists within the country, who didn't go abroad for many reasons and being unable to take action against journalists abroad was not just and fair, said Myanmar journalists.
The SAC should carefully study the current situation in the Myanmar news world and find ways how it should keep and cooperate with journalists, pointed out Myanmar journalists.