CNI News

9 October 2025

Among the towns controlled by the Arakan Army (AA) in Rakhine State, the towns of Ann, Thandwe, Taung Goat, and Gwa are currently being discussed by military and political analysts regarding their strategic importance to the Myanmar Tatmadaw.

Out of Rakhine State’s 17 townships, the AA now controls 14, while the Tatmadaw still holds Sittwe, Manaung, and Kyaukphyu. The Union Election Commission (UEC) announced on September 14 that elections could not be held in 56 townships across eight regions and states, but notably, the four AA-held townships of Ann, Thandwe, Taung Goat, and Gwa were not among them.

According to Dr. Aye Maung, Chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), the Tatmadaw considers these four southern Rakhine townships critical for defending the Ayeyarwady Region.

A map showing Ann, Taung Goat, Gwa and Thandwe

He explained: “The military likely has primary and secondary objectives. I can’t say which is which, but it’s a matter of necessity and ambition. What remains unclear is whether they will pursue these objectives through military means or negotiation. However, the decision to include those four townships in the election list wasn’t coordinated with the ULA/AA—it shows the military’s intent to eventually retake them by force if needed.Only by regaining control of those southern four townships can the Tatmadaw secure the entire Ayeyarwady Region. These townships adjacent to Ayeyarwady Region, are ways going into the mainland. Fighting could reach as far as the Ayeyarwady’s fringes. Ann is linked to Minbuu by road; Taung Goat connects toward Pyay. Along the western banks of the Ayeyarwady River are many of the military’s weapons factories. This means the AA might have plans to target those areas, while the Tatmadaw must prioritize defending them. Whether they’ll prioritize the south first, or places like Buthidaung and Maungdaw for international or strategic reasons, is uncertain.”

Analysts suggest that because the Tatmadaw considers these four townships strategically secure, they were not listed among areas where elections cannot be held. They further assess that elections could be conducted in seven townships of Rakhine State.

The towns of Ann, Thandwe, Taung Goat, and Gwa serve as key outlets connecting Rakhine State to central Myanmar.

Additionally, U Myo Kyaw of the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA) told CNI News that the Tatmadaw suffered a significant loss when it lost control of Ann, home to the Western Command headquarters.

The AA troops

“Those four towns form the eastern front of Rakhine. They lie along the main routes connecting Rakhine and central Myanmar. The Western Command’s headquarters was in Ann, and losing it was a major blow to the military. Currently, fighting is taking place along those same routes, where pro-democracy resistance forces—such as the Federal Democratic groups formed after the 2021 coup—are also active in alliance with others to resist the Tatmadaw. Because of this, the military has resorted to intimidating civilians in those areas out of frustration at its defeats. After retreating from those territories, it’s now making excuses about elections and claiming those areas as its own—behavior I find utterly disgraceful.”, he said.

The townships in Rakhine State where elections cannot be held are those under AA control, including Ranbye, Pauktaw, Ponnagyun, Rathedaung, Buthidaung, Maungdaw, Kyauktaw, Minbya, Mrauk-U, Myebon in Rakhine State as well as Paletwa in Chin State.

For the upcoming December 28, 2025 elections (Phase 1), six political parties are set to compete for representation in Rakhine State.

They are Arakan Front Party (AFP) led by Dr. Aye Maung, Arakan National Party (ANP) led by U Ba Shein, Rakhine National Force Party, Khami National Development Party, Mro Ethnic Party, Mro Development Party.

CNI News

8 October 2025

Narcotic drugs worth approximately 195.85 billion kyats, belonging to the Arakan Army (AA) and destined for Rakhine State and Malaysia, were seized in Yangon, according to a statement released on October 7, 2025, by the National Defense and Security Council (NDSC) Press Team.

Authorities received intelligence that narcotics from Shan State were to be transported through Yangon en route to Rakhine State and Malaysia. During the subsequent search operation, on September 24, at Hlegu Township along the Hlegu–Phaunggyi road, police intercepted a Nissan Condor truck driven by Aung Khant Kyaw and Htet Wai Phyo, seizing 1,439 kilograms of Ice (methamphetamine) worth around 35.97 billion kyats.

Based on their statements, further arrests followed. On September 25, at the “Shwe Maung” tea shop near Danyin Kone junction in Shwepyithar Township, Zaw Win Tun and San Htun Kyaw, who arranged vehicles for drug transport, were arrested. At Zaw Lin and Saw Zing Min Han’s residence in Si Pin Tha Village, Htantabin Township, police seized an additional 1,999 kilograms of Ice worth approximately 49.97 billion kyats.

Subsequently, authorities learned that narcotics were to be shipped from Thone Gwa Township, Thamma Saitta beach, to Malaysia. On September 27, at a warehouse near Thamma Saitta Village, Kyaw Naing, the warehouse owner, and several vehicle operators—Thet Paing Oo, Ye Ko, Hein Htet Soe, Htet Nay Lin, Zing Min Hlaing, and Wai Phyo Aung—were arrested with 2,198 kilograms of ketamine valued at about 109.9 billion kyats, along with a white Mitsubishi Fuso truck used for transportation.

Additionally, Soe Min Paing of Ye Okkan Village, Hlaing Tharyar Township, was arrested for involvement in the narcotics network. On September 28, at Smile World Spa in Ward 15, Hlaing Tharyar Township, Khin Maung Tuat, who stored the drugs, was also arrested. On September 29, in Phayangu Village, Twantay Township, Tint Naing Tun was taken into custody.

According to the NDSC press release, a total of 16 suspects, 4 vehicles, 3,438 kilograms of Ice, and 2,198 kilograms of ketamine—with a combined market value of 195.85 billion kyats—were seized.

The statement added that the AA engages in narcotics trafficking to fund the purchase of weapons and ammunition, which are then used to conduct terrorist operations in Rakhine State, including acts of violence, coercion, and killings against innocent civilians.

CNI News
5 October 2025

Since the upcoming 10th anniversary celebration of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) is a peace-related event, all stakeholders involved in the current situation must be invited, said U Khun Sai, who is engaged in peace-related processes, to CNI News. However, if hostilities remain, not every group may need to be invited, he added.

The 10th anniversary ceremony of the signing of the NCA will be held grandly on October 15, followed by a two-day peace forum on October 16–17.

U Khun Sai stated that if the event is truly for peace, everyone should be invited, and if Myanmar were to conduct the process in the same way as Ukraine—where parties negotiate even while fighting—it would not be wrong.

He said: “The question is whether the organizers will invite all stakeholders and whether they actually want to invite them. And whether those invited will attend or not—I don’t know. But if it’s for peace, then everyone should be invited. If there are hostilities, then not everyone needs to be invited. No matter how much the groups keep fighting, in the end, they will have to negotiate. So if they are invited, they should accept it. Looking at international experiences, negotiations take place even while fighting. Look at Ukraine—it’s fighting and negotiating at the same time. If Ukraine can do it, then it wouldn’t be wrong for us to do it too.”

It is reported that leaders of Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) who took part in the NCA drafting will be invited to the 10th anniversary event.

In addition to the seven groups that signed the NCA, the United Wa State Army (UWSA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and Shan State Progress Party (SSPP) are also expected to attend. The United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and Karen National Union (KNU) may also attend, according to assessments by military and political analysts.

Although suggestions have been made on which groups should be invited to the NCA anniversary and peace forum, the National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) has not issued any official response, U Khun Sai told CNI News.

“I have personally made suggestions on which groups should be invited. But since no reply has been received, I can’t say anything. Whether fighting groups or non-fighting groups, they should all be invited. Whether they attend or not is another matter. But whether or not they will actually be invited—we don’t know. And whether or not those who were invited received the invitations—we don’t know either. So I can’t really say anything.”, he said.

Military and political analysts also suggest that neighboring countries may exert pressure on EAOs to attend the 10th anniversary ceremony of the NCA and the peace forum.

CNI News

4 October 2025

The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) has become weak militarily due to declining alliances, according to Colonel Khun Okkar, Chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), who spoke to CNI News.

He said that because the TNLA is essentially a locally-based organization, it is facing difficulties in regaining manpower, weapons, and popular support at a time when it is confronted with opposition from its former strongest allies as well as from local communities.

On the other hand, since the Myanmar Tatmadaw is a state institution, it is able to replenish its manpower and arms in the long term, which allows it to exert increasing pressure and regain advantages in various areas, Khun Okkar explained.

Colonel Khun Okkar

“In short, they have fewer strong allies now. In the long run, the state institution (the Myanmar Tatmadaw) can quickly replenish and reinforce, applying greater pressure and gaining more opportunities. But for groups like the TNLA, which are more localized, it’s much harder to replenish manpower and arms. At this point, when TNLA is struggling to regain popular support, it faces opposition both from local people and local allied organizations. In civilian terms, you could say they’re short on friends. That means TNLA needs to rethink its situation,” he said.

The TNLA, along with the Kokang MNDAA, the Arakan Army (AA), KNDF, BNRA, BPLA, MDY-PDF, DPLA, PLA and other armed groups, launched the “Operation 1027” in northern Shan State and Mandalay Region on October 27, 2023.

During that offensive, the TNLA seized control of towns in northern Shan State such as Namkham, Nansang, Mantong, Monekoe, Namtu, Kyaukme, Hsipaw, Nawngcho, Momeik, Monglon, Kutkai, as well as Mogok in Mandalay Region.

However, by expelling other armed groups such as the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Shan State Progress Party (SSPP), and local People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) from the seized territories, the TNLA disrupted its military and political relations.

Myanmar Tatmadaw retaking Kyaukme

Similarly, disputes also broke out between TNLA and its Operation 1027 partner, the Kokang MNDAA, regarding administrative control of Kutkai Township.

Subsequently, on August 20, 2025, the United Wa State Army (UWSA)—the group most capable of supplying TNLA with arms and ammunition—announced after a meeting in Pangsang with leaders of TNLA, MNDAA, and SSPP that it would no longer provide weapons, funds, or any other assistance to any armed organization.

Amid these developments, the Myanmar Tatmadaw launched counter offensives into TNLA-held territories, recapturing Nawngcho in July 2025 and Kyaukme on October 1, 2025.

Currently, the Myanmar Tatmadaw’s offensive to retake Mogok has already reached the outskirts of the town, and operations to retake Hsipaw are also underway.

CNI News

3 October 2025

The leaders of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) need to carefully consider ways to minimize losses, said Colonel Khun Okkar, Chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), to CNI News.

As the Myanmar Tatmadaw is currently attacking TNLA-controlled Kyaukme, calls have been made for TNLA leadership to adopt strategies that reduce casualties and destruction.

At present, TNLA is said to be facing a shift toward a more defensive position, with dwindling alliances and weaker forces compared to before. Meanwhile, the Myanmar Tatmadaw’s manpower, equipment, and firepower have been replenished, giving it certain advantages on the battlefield.

Towns that have been captured by the TNLA

Colonel Khun Okkar explained: “In general, there are always ups and downs in war. Right now, TNLA seems to be leaning toward a more difficult, defensive phase. Their alliances have become fewer, their forces have become smaller, while the Tatmadaw has fully restored its manpower and weaponry. When the other side gains such strength, naturally, the advantage shifts back to them. That’s why what TNLA gained during Operation 1027 is now being pushed back. War has its ups and downs, and at this point, it is moving toward a downturn for TNLA. So, the leadership needs to plan carefully to minimize losses when setbacks occur.”

Fierce clashes continue near Kyaukme town, where government offices, homes, and other buildings have been destroyed by fire, forcing civilians to flee.

Although TNLA still maintains control of areas such as Mogok and Hsipaw, Colonel Khun Okkar suggested it would be better for them to withdraw from Kyaukme in order to reduce further losses:

Lt-Gen Ko Ko Oo of the Myanmar Tatmadaw and Lt-Gen Tar Jock Ja, Vice Chairman of the TNLA

“In my view, there’s no need to keep fighting in Kyaukme. They already control many other places—Mogoke, Hsipaw, and others. Concentrating too much strength in one place will only bring heavier losses. If they retreat, they should do so in a way that minimizes damage. That’s part of warfare.”

The TNLA, alongside the Kokang (MNDAA), Arakan Army (AA), KNDF, BNRA, BPLA, MDY-PDF, DPLA, PLA and others, launched Operation 1027 on October 27, 2023, across northern Shan State and parts of Mandalay Region.

Through this campaign, TNLA captured Namkham, Nansang, Mantong, Mong Ngor, Namtu, Kyaukme, Hsipaw, Naungcho, Momeik, Monglon, Kutkai, and Mogok. However, following counteroffensives by the Myanmar Tatmadaw, Naungcho was recaptured, and government forces advanced close to Mogoke.

Now, the Tatmadaw is also pressing to seize Kyaukme and preparing further operations toward Hsipaw.

Meanwhile, TNLA and the Tatmadaw have held three rounds of talks in Kunming, China—the latest in late August 2025—but no agreement has been reached.

CNI News

3 October 2025

Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), said that despite facing threats ahead of the upcoming election, his party does not take them seriously.

The Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP) was officially registered on May 10, 2013, during the previous civilian government. It has been in existence for more than 13 years and is recognized as the first political party representing the Shanni people. The party has contested elections in Kachin State, Sagaing Region, and Mandalay Region.

Sai Htay Aung told CNI News that although threats against the party persist, they have become routine. The more public support the party receives, the less such threats matter.

Opening of the TNDP party office

“For party organizing, there will certainly be difficulties. In places like Indawgyi, battles are taking place, and in some areas polling stations cannot even be established. KIA Colonel Naw Bu has also stated that elections will not be allowed in areas under the KIA control. That is an obstacle, of course. For example, in Myitkyina Township, places like Sinbo and Tarlaw are under KIA control, which makes it unlikely polling stations can be set up there.
The biggest challenge for our party is funding. We face financial difficulties in sustaining ourselves, and yes, there are also threats. But these threats have become routine, and we don’t take them seriously anymore. The more public support we receive, the less relevant the threats will become.”, he said.

On July 29, 2025, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, enacted the “Law on Protecting Against the Disruption, Obstruction, and Sabotage of Multiparty Democratic Elections.” Under this law, those found guilty face a minimum prison term of 10 years and up to life imprisonment or even the death penalty.

TNDP meeting with the public

TNDP, based in Kachin State, plans to concentrate its efforts in Constituency 2 in the upcoming election.

Sai Htay Aung explained: “We have submitted 32 candidates for registration. The process is still under scrutiny and should be completed by October 1. Our party is doing well—we enjoy public trust and understand the sentiments of our people. I feel that people’s confidence in us has grown. Since we are based in Kachin State, and when constituencies were divided under PR (Proportional Representation), we were mostly grouped into Constituency 2. Therefore, we will focus our campaign efforts there.”

According to the new Political Parties Registration Law, TNDP re-registered as a party based in Kachin State and continues to operate within that framework.

In the first phase of elections scheduled for December 28, 2025, a total of 66 constituencies in Kachin State will be contested: 36 for the State Hluttaw, 18 for the Pyithu Hluttaw, and 12 for the Amyotha Hluttaw.

CNI News

3 October 2025

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) stated that the People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), not the KIA, led the battle to capture Banmauk. Military and political analysts told CNI News this may have been said to ensure ongoing talks with the Myanmar Tatmadaw would not be disrupted.

According to KIA, the battle for Banmauk town in upper Sagaing Region was commanded by the National Unity Government (NUG)’s Military Region 1.

Colonel Khun Okkar, Chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), told CNI News:

“This is diplomacy. The KIO is saying in a diplomatic way that they have not gone beyond their designated Kachin State boundaries to expand or intrude. Therefore, if there are battles outside their area—like in Banmauk, which is already in Sagaing Region—they say the locals are leading, while the Kachin side is only assisting. It’s diplomatic wording. On the ground, who actually leads may or may not match that statement. I see it as diplomatic speech. Both sides have already agreed to meet. The KIO even proposed meeting in Myitkyina, but due to the security situation and the presence of many armed groups there, safety cannot be guaranteed. The Nay Pyi Taw side proposed meeting in Mongla or Kengtung, but the KIO has not agreed yet. Because of this location issue, no meeting has taken place so far. Meanwhile, if battles continue, one side can blame the other. So, saying the PDFs are leading helps maintain the planned talks.”

Banmauk town being captured by KIA-PDF forces

The joint resistance forces—KIA, various PDF battalions, the Kadu Defense Force, and the Banmauk PDF—launched their offensive on September 15. On September 20, they managed to seize the town, and on September 22, NUG’s Ministry of Defense announced that the capture had been carried out under the command of Military Region 1.

Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News:

“It doesn’t look good if the KIA is seen as leading the Banmauk capture. Banmauk is inside Sagaing Region, not Kachin State. Politically, the KIA is showing restraint. They may have led the fighting, but they let the NUG take the front position. That shows political subtlety. They fought together, seized the town, but didn’t claim credit. Instead, the NUG did. The sensitive part is that Banmauk is home mainly to Shanni and Kadu ethnic groups. When such ethnic issues come up, the KIA seems to have shifted responsibility to the NUG.”

NUG and the Chin Brotherhood forces

Banmauk is a town where the Shanni make up about 68% of the population and the Kadu about 14%. Analysts suggest that due to such ethnic complexities, the KIA chose not to claim the capture.

In July and August 2025, various Spring Revolution forces—including the Chin Brotherhood (CB), Karenni National Defense Force (KNDF), Yaw Army, Myingyan PDF, NUG ministers, and Naga armed groups—met with the KIA leadership. Following those meetings, coordinated town capture operations such as Banmauk have been launched.

Currently, resistance forces control several towns in Sagaing Region, including Khanpat, Myothit, Shwepyiaye, Pinlebu, Mawlu, Inndaw, and Banmauk.

Although Banmauk Township is a constituency scheduled for elections, it is not among the 102 townships included in the first phase of the December 28 elections.

CNI News
2 October 2025

The Myanmar Tatmadaw re-entered Kyaukme town in northern Shan State with its columns and regained control of the area on October 2, 2025, according to reports accompanied by photos.

The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) had taken control of Kyaukme after attacking the Tatmadaw on August 6, 2024.

Since August 2025, the Tatmadaw had launched offensives to retake Kyaukme, leading to intense clashes with the TNLA. During these battles, the Tatmadaw's military columns advanced and reached the town on October 2, regaining control over it.

CNI News

2 October 2025

The Ministry of Finance and Revenue announced on September 30, 2025, that additional allowances would be granted to civil servants currently serving in the state and to retired government employees.

Civil servants and retired employees were first granted a monthly allowance of 30,000 kyats per person starting from October 2023. Later, beginning in August 2024, a second allowance of 30,000 kyats per person per month was provided.

Now, in addition to the existing 60,000 kyats monthly allowance, an extra 30,000 kyats will be granted as a monthly allowance, according to the Ministry of Finance and Revenue.

Similarly, for members of the armed forces (Army, Navy, and Air Force), in addition to the existing 60,000 kyats monthly allowance, an extra 30,000 kyats will also be provided as an additional monthly allowance, the Ministry announced on September 30, 2025.

For daily-wage staff and laborers, in addition to the current 2,000 kyats daily allowance, an extra 1,000 kyats will be granted as a supplementary allowance. Furthermore, their daily wage will be set at 7,800 kyats, according to the announcement.

Retired civil servants will also receive, in addition to the current 30,000 kyats monthly allowance, an extra 30,000 kyats as a monthly supplementary allowance, the ministry’s statement said.