CNI News

20 March 2025

Everyone is watching with interest what the Myanmar representatives have gained for reforming Myanmar from the discussion with Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), India's first independent international affairs think tank.

Over 40 Myanmar people, including officials from 12 political parties, Lt-Gen Min Naing of the NSPNC, officials from five EAOs and former MPs, and the ICWA discussed federalism and constitutional issues.

The discussion was held at the India Centre of the Embassy of India in Myanmar on 18 March 2025. Mainly, he happened to know India's negotiating skill,  Vice Chairman of the National Democratic Force (NDF) U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News.

" Long story short, we saw India's negotiating skill there. There is just an If you don't get what you want , fight for it' mindset here in our country. It's not like that in India. For over 70 years, the Indian government has patiently negotiated, bit by bit, as much as it can. Now, this is quite successful. India experienced terrorism and armed resistance as well. India has promoted political negotiation as much as possible. It had to conduct a lot of negotiations and compromises." he said.

They discussed constitutional frameworks and federalism, India's experience in managing a multi-ethnic and multi-lingual federal system, issues of all-inclusive governance and power-sharing, and Indian federalism and ethnic diversity.

While seeing Indian scholars in the discussion on federalism and constitution on 18 March 2025

Issues that could be resolved through political means by meeting and discussing constitutional and ethnic issues in the armed conflict areas were discussed and shared, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP) Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News.

" Why is their constitution perpetuated up to now? One point after another was enacted in advance after arguments. Now they are being implemented. Our country is still studying drafting or amending constitution including India's constitution. I think we have to study one point after another that will suit our country. We have ethnic problems because our country is made up of various ethnic groups. So, how have they enacted laws regarding ethnic groups? They are living harmoniously without any conflicts. How did they find political solutions in the territories where armed conflicts were taking place. These things were shared." he said.

When discussing with Indian scholars, he happened to know two points and firstly India was worried that the central government would collapse, and secondly, it wanted everyone to support and correct the establishment of democracy in Myanmar, said a politician close to local and foreign diplomats.

Administrative and political elements from Myanmar went to India from 5th to 7th November 2024 to discuss federal issues. Follow-up discussion of the trip to India was held at the India Centre in Yangon, Myanmar on 18 March 2025.

Moreover, federalism and constitutional issues were to be held again in Naypyidaw, said political parties.

CNI News

19 March 2025

Leader of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), a militant group, Ataullah Abu Ammar Jununi and nine other suspected members were arrested by the Bangladesh government on 17 March 2025, reported on the website of the bdnews24.com. 

Along with Ataullah, Mostaq Ahmed, Asmat Ullah, Md Hasan, Salimullah, Asmat Ullah were included in those arrested. Ataullah was arrested while he visited Muslim refugee camps in Cox's Bazar district, Bangladesh. 

The ARSA attacked 30 police stations in Buthidaung, Maungdaw and Rathedaung Townships, Rakhine State in 2017 and killed Hindus and other ethnic groups in those regions as well. 

And then, the Myanmar Tatmadaw had to launch a clearance operation.

CNI News

19 March 2025

It was time for the State Administration Council to consider how to exit from politics, chairman of the Pa-O National Federal Council (PNFC) Khun Myint Tun told CNI News. 

According to the current political situation of Myanmar, questions are emerging how much territories or opportunities the central government could give to EAOs while some pointed out that the SAC had no right to give territories or opportunities to EAOs.

It was a misconception that SAC had the right to give territories or opportunities to EAOs; now was the time for the SAC to consider how the Myanmar Tatmadaw would exit politics, said Khun Myint Tun.

"The military council also thinks it has the right to give territories or opportunities. It's just a misconception. Now the military has staged a coup d'etat. Because the military has staged a coup d'etet, the military, which has no right to discuss politics, and the military council formed by the military, have no right to do those things. Mainly the military has to do now is that the military must consider how to exit from politics." he said.

While seeing leaders of armed organizations and Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing

How much the central government could give territories or opportunities to EAOs played an important role, U Khun Sai who is taking part in the peace process, told CNI News.

" In the past, we demanded the Tatmadaw to withdraw from politics in the peace process. Then, the Tatmadaw asked EAOs if it withdrew from politics, would EAOs  continue to hold arms? The Tatmadaw said that it wouldn't withrew from politics as long as EAOs have maintained weapons. So, after both sides negotiated, we drafted a 15-year plan at that time. We were negotiating how both sides would withdraw from the armed phase. it's not done yet until the Third Union Agreement is reached. We would have to continue the discussion for the fourth time. Meanwhile, this coup d'etat took place." he said.

Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) must negotiate what should be without demanding what were impossible, said the SAC Chairman Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing on the plane that returned from Russia and Belarus on 9 March 2025.

While seeing leaders from the TNLA, the AA and the MNDAA

EAOs and democratic elements have been demanding the Myanmar Tatmadaw to withdrew from politics and give up the 25 percent seat in Hluttaws as well as to keep the Myanmar Tatmadaw under the civilian government.

The Arakan Army has said that it wants a political status that is not lower than the status the UWSA has gained or it might try to gain the independence.

The Ta'ang National Liberation Army has demanded to designate all the territories that it has captured during Operation-1027 as Palaung State while the UWSA has demanded to designate its territories as the Wa State not to mention its administrative power it has gained at present.

The KIA has warned that it would conduct the discussions beyond federalism.

CNI News

19 March 2025

As conflicts are ongoing between the Kuki (Zo) and Katha people in Manipur State, India, the Mizoram-based Zo Reunification Organization (ZORO) met with Indian Home Minister Amit Shah and made the request to create a separate governance for the Kuki (Zo) people.

While Minister Amit Shah arrived in Mizoram State, he met and discussed with the ZORO in Raj Bhavan, the official residence of the governor of Mizoram in the capital city of Aizawl , Mizoram State on 15 March 2025 and the ZORO called for separate governance for Kuki (Zo) people.

The Kuki (Zo) people are facing various difficulties due to the ongoing conflicts in Manipur; it was not convenient for Kuki (Zo) people and Meitei people to coexist under the same governance; so, the ZORO called for the minister a separate governance for the Kuki (Zo) people.

While seeing Chief Minister of Mizoram State and the two Chin rebel groups after the unification agreement was reached between the groups

The ZORO also requested the minister to re-allow the Free Movement Regime (FMR) between India and Myanmar in the border areas and they are waging an armed revolution for the liberation of the Kuki people.

Mizoram MP K. Vanlalvena visited the headquarters of the Chin National Front (CNF/CNA) in Myanmar in the first week of March to discuss the merger of Chin State with Mizoram State, India.

Chief Minister of Mizoram State Lalduhoma also presided over the signing of the unification agreement between the two Chin rebel groups, the Chinland Council (CC) and the Interim Chin National Consultative Council (ICNCC), on February 26, 2025.

A Manipur State MP also discussed in the Manipur Legislative Assembly urging the Indian government to take steps to bring the Tamu-Kabaw valley back into the state of Manipur.

The Indian-based Deccan Herald news agency reported that the Mizoram Chief Minister and Kuki (Zo)-based organizations are currently seeking cross-border integration.

CNI News
18 March 2025

The Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), a New Delhi based Indian think-tank met with political parties, the National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) and EAOs and discussed the matters regarding federalism and constitutional issues at the India Centre of the India Embassy in Myanmar on 18 March 2025.

They discussed constitutional frameworks and federalism, India's experience in managing a multi-ethnic and multi-lingual federal system, issues of all-inclusive governance and power-sharing, and Indian federalism and ethnic diversity.

The discussion was attended by three delegates from the NSPNC of the State Administration Council, including Lt-Gen Min Naing, secretary of the NSPNC and Daw Saw Mya Raza Lin, Nan Yin Yin Soe, Col. Saw Kyaw Nyunt, Yebaw Myo Win and Col. Khun Okkar from five NCA signatories.

While a discussion on federal issues was being held at the India Center in Yangon on March 18, 2025

Moreover, chairman of the People's Party U Ko Ko Gyi, chairman of the Arakan Front Party Dr. Aye Maung, vice chairman of the National Democratic Force Party U Htet Aung Kyaw, chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party Sai Htay Aung, chairman of the Arakan National Party U Thar Tun Hla and Daw Khin Saw Wai, political analyst U Ye Tun (Thibaw), writer U Kyaw Win, U Khin Maung Soe from the USDP, and U Saw Than Myint from the Shan and Nationalities Democratic Party.

Moreover, the Indian Ambassador to Myanmar and delegates from the Think Tank attended the discussion. Political parties, some EAOs and some SAC officials went to India to study and discuss democracy and federalism from 5th to 7th November, 2024.

While seeing delegates who participated in the trip to India on 5th to 7th November, 2024

The trip to India included 20 delegates from 11 political parties, chairman and secretary of the NSPNC, and the Center for Peace and Reconciliation (CPR).

Follow-up talks on the India trip were held at the India Centre in Yangon, Myanmar on 18 March 2025.

CNI News

18 March 2025

In order to enable all the stakeholders to take part in the dialogue, if talks were held without discussing amendment of the 2008 Constitution, it could be difficult, U Khun Sai who is taking part in the peace process, told CNI News. 

To enable the Defense Services to be able to participate in the National political leadership role of the State imposed in Section. 6 (f) needed to be abolished, which should be told at least, he said.

" If you want to be all-inclusive, you have to say what everyone wants to hear. What everyone wants to hear is that this election is not about continuing to embrace the 2008 Constitution. If the stakeholders want to amend this 2008 Constitution, they can do it, or if they want to draft a new one, they can draft it. At least, they will need to say at least that Section 6(f) needs to be removed from the 2008 Constitution. If we were to hold a discussion without telling these things, it would be difficult. Not only U Nu but also U Thein Sein told that except for secession, everything could be discussed. This is a good thing, too." said U Khun Sai.

While seeing the SAC Chairman and EAOs

The NSPNC and some NCA signatories discussed holding a peace conference. If the peace conference was held according to the NCA, NCA non-signatories would not be able to take part. So, there are some opinions that it could be held beyond the NCA.

A pre-election dialogue was needed to ensure that the election was all-inclusive and acceptable to all, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News.

" Domestic conflicts have been taking place for almost 80 years. As Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing express exactly the time when elections will be held when he returned from Russia and Belarus. So, we have at least nine months to make preparations. A dialogue is needed before the elections to hold all-inclusive and acceptable elections until the SAC hands over the power to the National Defense and Security Council. We need to hold a peace conference, inviting all armed organizations to participate, including both NCA signatories and NCA non-signatories." he said.

While seeing one of the ethnic groups in Myanmar

The first session of the Union Peace Conference was held in 2016 under the government of former President U Thein Sein and the conference was last held in August 2020, under the government led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.

Political parties discussed holding an all-inclusive conference such as the Union Peace Conference during when its Working Group discussed with the NSPNC.

The government and the public needed to cooperate in order to hold elections successfully because elections would be held without fail, said the SAC Chairman Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing at the award ceremony for honorary degree recipients held in Naypyidaw on 16 March 2025.

CNI News

18 March 2025

The discussions by some Indian politicians to merge Chin State with India were an attempt that should not be done at the national level, spokesperson for the 7 EAO Alliance, Col. Saw Kyaw Nyunt told CNI News. 

Mizoram MP K. Vanlalvena entered Chin State and visited the Chin National Front (CNF/CAN) headquarters and discussed the merger of Chin State with India, reported the Hindu news agency.

It was strange to act such a thing in the current period of political instability in Myanmar, Col. Saw Kyaw Nyunt, spokesperson for the 7 EAO Alliance, told CNI News.

"Chin State is a state that has always been part of our country. I see Chin State as a unit in the federal democratic union we will establish in the future. I find it strange that Indian politicians are trying to merge Chin State with India at this time of political turmoil in Myanmar. If there really were any attempts to organize such a merger as a national level, I would say that this was a very improper effort." he said.

Additionally,  a Manipur MP also discussed the merger of the Tamu-Kabaw Valley with India in the Indian Senate session. 

The Chin people will not accept this proposal to merge Chin State with India. She won't accept any talk of harming Myanmar for the sake of India's interests, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs commentator, told CNI News.

" We won't accept it. Chin people won't accept it as well. It's natural for him to do what's good for his country. But if he only looks at the good of his own country at the expense of the interests of other countries, this is unacceptable. We also never speak in a way that harms other countries or people. We are eager to see unity among all our peoples in our country." she said.

India should not damage bilateral relations by prioritizing its own political interests and should respect Myanmar's sovereignty and territorial integrity, said leader of the Information Team of the State Administration Council, Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun.

Regarding the statements made by some Indian politicians, Myanmar will continue to express what should be informed and told, he said.

The Myanmar-India border is 1,626 kilometers long and has been measured for over 1,460 kilometers and the Kabaw Valley region has been measured and recognized, reported the SAC.

Regarding the Myanmar-India bilateral border demarcation, the Myanmar-India Memorandum of Understanding on bilateral border cooperation had been signed on May 8, 2014, the SAC reported.

CNI Article
16 March 2025

Author By Chit Min Tun

Because of political change that started on 1 February 2021, Myanmar is seen to be deteriorating on all sides. Even though an answer on how to cure the situation has been looking for, it has not been found yet.

Meanwhile, we are also seeing Myanmar's neighbors getting involved in some way from different perspectives. So let's analyze the situation in Myanmar and its neighboring countries.

China

*******

 By reason of Operation-1027 and Zha pian, China penetrated deep into Myanmar. China demanded that Myanmar enact a private security law to protect Chinese companies, Chinese employees, and Chinese investment projects, and has begun trying to protect itself.

After this, China became deeply involved in Myanmar's politics and peace process. Foreign countries were allowed to be as witnesses or observer status only under the governments led by U Thein Sein and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.

While seeing the SAC Chairman Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and Chinese PM Li Chang

In the peace talks between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the three northern groups, China entered the talks as a mediator. Even though a certain side didn't want to discuss, if China told it to discuss, it had to discuss.

India

*******

Some Indian MPs have discussed making the Myanmar territories bordering Mizoram and Manipur States in the northeastern part of India become part of India and they started discussing with armed groups.

Indian senior officials officially expressed plans to merge Chin State, Myanmar into Mizoram State, India as well as to merge Tamu-Kabaw Valley (Kalay-Mingin), Myanmar into Manipur State, India.

The Chief Minister of Mizoram State expressed to merge Chin State into Mizoram State during his trip to the US.

Chief Minister of Mizoram State, India was participating as a witness in the unification agreement between the two Chin rebel groups in Myanmar

More than 2,000 foreigners entered the Indian state of Mizoram. Those people were missing and had entered Myanmar. And then, they were training armed groups in the Chin mountain range, said Chief Minister of Mizoram State, Lalduhoma in the Mizoram State Assembly session on 10 March 2025.

Bangladesh

*************

A big white country came to discuss with her the establishment of a Christian state near Myanmar and Bangladesh, said former Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina on 26 May 2024. This statement was reported by the Indian news outlet The Print on May 28, 2024.

The main reason why she was overthrown by protests was that she didn't accept the discussion by a big white country that wanted to establish a Christian country, former Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina.

And then, she sought political asylum in India. After Sheikh Hasina was ousted, the pro-American Muhammad Yunus led an interim government. Meanwhile, reports have also emerged that Pakistani intelligence is providing guerrilla training to Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh.

At the same time the ARSA, the RSO and the ARA joint forces waged battles to liberate Rathedaung, Buthidaung and Maungdaw Townships in Rakhine State bordering Bangladesh.

While seeing with former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina

Given these circumstances, I think India is also keeping a close eye on the possibility of a state emerging near the three countries of Myanmar, Bangladesh, and India.

Therefore, it is possible that some territories in Myanmar are being organized to merge with India, and it is also possible that India is taking a precautionary approach.

Thailand

***********
Thailand has provided shelter to the revolutionary elements from Myanmar , while at the same time, it is dealing with those who have seized state power. Thailand is carrying out to develop its economy by obtaining cheap human resources from Myanmar and operating factories and workshops in Thailand, including manufacturing.

The influence of the Thai government on the forces controlling some areas near the Thai-Myanmar border became apparent during the crackdown on Zha pian (telegram fraud).

While seeing the SAC Chairman and the Thai PM Paetongtarn

With almost all China-Myanmar border trade routes closed, Thai goods are mainly entering Myanmar. So China may be worried that Thailand would take its maket shares from Myanmar. Compared to the international market, the Myanmar market is not that big for China.

Myanmar

************

In Myanmar, the UWSA and the NDAA have attained confederation status, so foreign countries even consider them small countries within Myanmar.

Because ethnic groups would have thoughts beyond federalism by 2025, a federal union should be established as soon as possible, said Lt-Gen Gun Maw of the Kachin Independence Army during his meeting with Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in 2028.

If the situation ever arose to establish a nation, the Palaung people must prepare in advance to be ready, said general secretary of the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) Maj-Gen Tar Bone Kyaw on 18 August 2022.

" If this country could not establish a federal union, small countries could emerged. The Palaung people should think about it thoroughly. We need to prepare thoroughly. When this country could be established as a federal union, we will be included as a state and need to make efforts to defend our nationalities. Or if a federal union can't be established because of geopolitics or world politics or because the revolutions are gaining momentum, small countries could emerge. If so, we need to make preparations in order that we can build our own country." said Maj-Gen Tar Bone Kyaw.

While seeing leaders from the TNLA, the AA and the MNDAA

Chairman and Commander in Chief of the Arakan Army (AA) Maj-Gen Tun Myat Naing has said that the AA wanted the confederation status at least and it could think beyond that status if necessary. These are the positions and attitudes of EAOs that have not yet signed the NCA. It's necessary to watch the positions and attitudes of the NCA signatories as well.

"The seven NCA signatories would have to administer their territories with the self-administrative system of self-determination. They would have to carry out services including administration, security, economy, education, healthcare and livelihood in their regions. A federal union must be established step by step. It's necessary to carry out in accordance with the principle 'Do the same tasks together, and separate the different tasks'", chairman of the Restoration Council of Shan State, General Yawd Serk in the meeting of the 7 NCA signatories from 17th to 19th March, 2024.

While political parties and the NSPNC were meeting and discussing

Surveys indicate that the Myanmar Tatmadaw has lost control of the Northeast Command and the West Command as well as more than 90 townships. It is said that the peace processes are being played as a political game without certainty. As long as peace processes are not successful, the people are still facing a variety of troubles.

Above-mentioned situations are taking place in Myanmar and its neighbors. If the situation cannot be tackled, Myanmar can collapse and lead to a failed state.

If Myanmar has become a failed state, it could take 20 to 30 years so as to be able to reconstruct the country or democratic restoration processes can take 20-30 years as well, which experts explained this based on their studies of failed democracies.

How are all the stakeholders in Myanmar going to resolve these problems? How will they find a way out?

CNI News
15 March 2025

India should not damage bilateral relations by prioritizing its own political interests and should respect Myanmar's sovereignty and territorial integrity, said leader of the Information Team of the State Administration Council, Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun.

Mizoram State MP K. Vanlalvena entered Chin State, which borders India, and visited the Chin National Front (CNF/CNA) headquarters and discussions were held there to merge Chin State with India, reported the Hindu News Agency.

Manipur State MP discussed merging Tamu-Kabaw valley with India in the Indian upper house of parliament. In the same way, foreigners were entering Myanmar through the Indian state of Mizoram and were providing military training to Myanmar rebels in the Chin Mountains, said Chief Minister of Mizoram State, Lalduhoma in the Mizoram State Assembly on 10 March 2025.

Myanmar and India were good friends and Myanmar had anything to do with India's Act East Policy and was cooperating with India; Myanmar didn't want groups that used India's territory and were opposing Myanmar and didn't accept groups that used Myanmar Territory and were opposing the Indian government, said Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun.

While seeing Mizoram MP at the CNF headquarters

" Myanmar will always remain a good neighbor and friend of India. Some politicians in India should not damage the bilateral relation, taking their political desire only into account." said Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun.
Regarding the statements made by some Indian politicians, Myanmar will continue to express what should be informed and told, he said.

The Indian BJP party campaigned to reclaim the Kabaw Valley region, which includes Tamu-Kalay-Minkin townships in 2013, and local residents protested against it.

The Myanmar-India border is 1,626 kilometers long and has been measured for over 1,460 kilometers and the Kabaw Valley region has been measured and recognized, reported the SAC.

While seeing Chief Minister of Mizoram State and the agreement on the unification of the two Chin rebel groups

Regarding the Myanmar-India bilateral border demarcation, the Myanmar-India Memorandum of Understanding on bilateral border cooperation had been signed on May 8, 2014, the SAC reported.

At present, battles are severely breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and armed groups across Myanmar and neighboring countries such as China, India, Thailand, and Bangladesh are also involved in the armed conflicts, said military and political analysts.

If the situation could not be handled, Myanmar could collapse and become a failed state, they have warned.