CNI News

March 25, 2026

If peace negotiations are to be carried out in Myanmar, ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) should be engaged separately, as their interests differ and the strategic importance of the territories where fighting occurs also varies, political analyst Dr. An Kaw La told CNI News.

“All ethnic armed groups cannot simply be invited together at once, in our view,” he said. “Their interests are not the same. Moreover, the areas where clashes take place differ in terms of size and strategic importance. Based on those differences, outcomes may diverge. Therefore, what is meant by ‘all-inclusive’ is more likely to proceed through bilateral approaches with each group.”

He added that, unlike during the time of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), when there were efforts to include multiple groups under a single framework, such an approach would be difficult under current conditions.

“In reality, since interests are different, negotiations need to be conducted separately, followed by dialogue processes. There are many stages involved in implementing peace. However, I do not think everything can happen simultaneously. A number of steps still need to be taken beforehand, and depending on how those are prepared and whether they succeed or fail, changes may occur,” he said.

An anniversary celebration of the NCA

Since 2021, Myanmar’s political landscape has shifted, with ethnic armed groups expanding control beyond their previous territories. As a result, analysts say dialogue has become unavoidable.

During the administration of former President U Thein Sein, ceasefire offers were made to EAOs, leading to the signing of the NCA as well as bilateral agreements with individual groups. Similarly, under the National League for Democracy (NLD) government, the New Mon State Party (NMSP) and the Lahu Democratic Union (LDU) signed the NCA.

Although Union Peace Conferences were held under both civilian governments, analysts note that their impact was limited. The conference was first convened in 2016 under U Thein Sein’s administration, with the last session held in August 2020 during Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s government.

After nearly five years of political upheaval, EAOs that have gained advantages on multiple fronts are now making higher-level demands than before.

U Khun Sai, a participant in the peace process, also told CNI News that all armed groups in Myanmar should prioritize dialogue over confrontation.

A conference of armed groups

“International peace experts say they have never seen a country as politically knowledgeable as Myanmar. Every group is full of political experts,” he said. “But the problem is that instead of negotiating to reach agreement, they spend their time competing to win arguments. When they fail to win through debate, they resort to arms.”

“That is why, in our country, we must move away from prioritizing debate and instead adopt genuine dialogue—working together to find solutions. Since peace talks began in 2011, we aimed to build a new culture of resolving political problems through dialogue rather than force. It has been about 15 years now, and we still have not fully implemented it. It is time to do so,” he urged.

Analysts also point out that peace talks will not be possible as long as deep mistrust and restrictions persist among the government, the military, and ethnic armed groups.

They add that both domestic and international peace facilitators will play an important role in making such dialogue processes possible.

CNI News

March 25, 2026

Authorities in Naypyidaw announced on March 24, 2026, the seizure of drugs and related production equipment valued at approximately 20.2 billion Kyats near Kaw Yar Village, Mine Hae (Lower) Village Tract, in Tachileik Township, Eastern Shan State.

On the afternoon of March 24, at around 3:00 PM, officials discovered two large tarpaulin tents (100 feet by 30 feet) used for drug production and packaging. The site is located approximately 28,500 meters northwest of Tachileik and 2,000 meters northwest of Kaw Yar Village.

According to the official statement, the raid also uncovered: One dining tent (50ft x 30ft) and one residential tent.

Three small residential tents (10ft x 10ft).Three additional storage tents (10ft x 15ft).

Naypyidaw stated that security forces will continue clearing the surrounding area, as further suspicious production sites are suspected to exist in the vicinity.

Since the escalation of political and military conflict after February 21, 2021, Myanmar has seen a massive surge in drug and arms trafficking. As the rule of law has declined, local populations have increasingly fallen victim to the drug trade.

This raid follows a similar operation between January 16 and 22, 2026, where drug factories and production materials were also seized near Hsipaw and Mongyai in Northern Shan State.

CNI News

March 25, 2026

If Myanmar is to build a federal union, it should adopt a system tailored to the specific conditions of each region or state, U Saw Than Myint, Joint Secretary of the Shan and Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP), told CNI News.

According to him, his party envisions a system in which regions such as Yangon would have full authority over the three branches of power—legislative, judicial, and executive—exercised by their respective regional parliaments or governments. Only then, he said, would regions and states be able to exercise meaningful authority.

“Each country practices governance differently, and each region also differs,” he said. “For example, India is not officially called a federal country, yet it governs through a federal system. Federalism is essentially about how administration, management, and governance are carried out.”

He added that the conditions in Shan State, Chin State, Rakhine State, and Yangon Region are all different, and therefore cannot be managed under a single uniform model.

“As long as it does not contradict the main constitution, regions and states should have the authority to draft and implement sub-constitutions suited to their own areas. That is federalism. Administration will naturally differ from one region to another. Therefore, each region must adopt a system that fits its own situation. However, for nationwide implementation, it must be defined by the constitution,” he said.

Armed forces seen

At present, Myanmar has yet to reach agreement among the military, government, parliament, ethnic armed groups, and political parties on what kind of federal system should be established.

A political analyst told CNI News that it is uncertain whether ethnic armed organizations would accept the federal model envisioned under the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), suggesting they may not wish to follow that framework.

“To resolve the ongoing internal armed conflicts—particularly between ethnic armed groups and the military—there must be a solution,” he said. “If federalism is to be adopted, every peace negotiation ultimately leads to discussions on constitutional reform and how to establish a federal system.”

He added that while federalism may remain the general goal, the situation following Operation 1027 has raised questions about whether a federal democratic system can realistically be implemented.

He pointed out that the United Wa State Army (UWSA) has rejected the 2008 Constitution and governs its territory autonomously. Similarly, the Northern Alliance groups—the Arakan Army (AA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA)—have gained control over territories through armed means since Operation 1027.

Various national ethnic groups seen

“If the federal system outlined in the NCA were to be implemented, it is uncertain whether these groups would accept it,” he said. “They may remain within a federal framework, but it is not guaranteed that they would adopt a multi-party democratic system in their regions. If forced, they may reject it. If peace is to be achieved, they are unlikely to follow the exact federal model defined in the NCA,” he added.

In Myanmar, ethnic armed groups and political parties broadly support the establishment of a federal democratic union, while the government and military have also stated their support for building a democratic federal union.

However, the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) itself stipulates the establishment of a union based on federalism and democracy.

Analysts also caution that when building a federal union in Myanmar, federalism and democracy should not be conflated, and must be clearly distinguished. They note that the collapse of the Soviet Union serves as a warning of the risks of mixing the two concepts improperly.

Similarly, during the era of General Ne Win, Myanmar adopted the “Burmese Way to Socialism,” which ultimately failed and led to national decline. Therefore, analysts warn that caution is needed when attemptin;g to create a uniquely “Myanmar-style” federal system.

CNI News
March 24, 2026

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Restoration Commission, stated that air travel must be mandatorily prioritized for 11 cities, including Homalin and Khamti in Upper Sagaing Region.

He made these remarks during a meeting held on March 24, 2026, regarding the adequate supply and systematic consumption of fuel.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said, "Air routes must be mandatorily prioritized for cities that are difficult to access by motor vehicle, such as Putao, Khamti, Myitkyina, Homalin, Tachileik, Kalay, Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, Manaung, Myeik, and Kawthaung."

He added that it is also necessary to operate flights to other hard-to-reach areas as a second priority. To facilitate public travel, he called for the expansion of train services and the consideration of measures to ensure public bus lines can operate normally.

Currently, the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has triggered a global energy crisis, leading every country to strive for fuel conservation.

Consequently, Myanmar is implementing measures to save fuel, such as designating "Even/Odd" license plate days for vehicle travel, requiring QR codes for refueling, limiting fuel purchases to once or twice a week based on engine capacity, and requiring government employees to work from home every Wednesday.

On the other hand, domestic airlines have been experiencing flight cancellations due to the prevailing fuel crisis.

CNI News

March 24, 2026

The Naga Region PDF (People's Defense Force) Special Task Force, operating under the Ministry of Defense of the National Unity Government (NUG), has opened its first batch (Batch 1) of basic military training, according to a statement released by the NPDO.

The training commenced on March 7, 2026, in the Naga region of Upper Sagaing Region.

Opening ceremony of the Naga Region PDF basic military training (Photo: NPDO Page)

The opening ceremony was attended by Comrade Lion, the acting head of the Naga Region PDF; Comrade Kyar Gyi, the head of training for the Naga Region PDF; and other officials from the regional PDF Special Task Force, the NPDO reported.

Currently, at least eight different Naga and Kathe armed organizations are active and stationed within the Naga Self-Administered Zone.

CNI Interview

March 24, 2026

Armed conflict remains intense in Myanmar, and the involvement of neighboring China and the Western bloc (specifically the US) is being closely monitored. 

Recently, in northern Shan State, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) seized Kutkai—previously controlled by the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)—and is preparing to take control of Namhkam. There are allegations that China is behind these operations.

On another front, the KIA has declared that Sagaing Region is its "security gateway." They have launched the "Ka Thone Lone" operation (Kanbalu-Kawlin-Katha) to intercept the enemy and are working toward the "liberation" of Myanmar’s northwestern corridor. CNI News contacted political analyst Dr. An Kaw La to discuss these developments.

Illustration of China's Northern Shan State Containment Plan

Q: In the Northern Shan State landscape, is the conflict between the Kokang (MNDAA) and the Palaung (TNLA) happening because China is trying to control the entire region? What is your view?

A: Kutkai has effectively moved to the west bank of the Salween River. Looking at this, there are two Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) that are on good terms with China. One is the UWSA. Currently, I believe the UWSA is responsible for the east bank of the Salween down to Kengtung, while the MNDAA has been tasked with the west bank, including Kutkai and Hsenwi.

Of the main Union Highway from Mandalay to Lashio, and from Lashio to Muse, the section from the mainland to Lashio is currently under the government control. However, from Lashio to Muse, it appears the MNDAA—which has good relations with China—has been tasked with maintaining the critical areas of Kutkai and Muse. We see this as China placing the MNDAA in charge of the west bank of the Salween because they trust them.

Q: What would happen if the entirety of Northern Shan State fell under Chinese influence?

A: This is important. As I mentioned, Northern Shan is divided by the Salween. To be blunt, the TNLA hasn't been on great terms with China since last year; they didn't get along well in meetings. Consequently, China seems to have replaced them with the MNDAA.

When we say "Northern Shan State," we must include Namhkam. The MNDAA is being encouraged to take it. I haven't heard that Namhkam has fallen yet, but it is very close to Muse. If Namhkam is left alone, the TNLA could cause disruptions from there. Therefore, it appears the MNDAA is being tasked with Namhkam, a border trade gate. Historically, Namhkam is the "gateway" between Kachin State and Northern Shan. By having the MNDAA control Namhkam, China likely intends to keep the KIA in check as well.

Geopolitically, Namhkam is vital. If the KIO/KIA is not on good terms with China and the MNDAA holds Namhkam, the KIO can be threatened at any time. The battlegrounds where the KIO is fighting government troops, like Bhamo and Katha, are very close to Namhkam (Bhamo is only about 65 miles away). The outcome of the Bhamo battle becomes very sensitive if the MNDAA holds Namhkam. It seems China wants its two preferred EAOs to control Northern Shan and then negotiate with the Myanmar government to open the Union Highway trade route.

Representative of the Tatmadaw Lt-Gen Ko Ko Oo, Chinese Special Envoy Deng Xijun and Delegates of the MNDAA

Q: If China plays for the whole of Northern Shan, what is the strategy? China wants peace in Myanmar, yet they are playing this game. What is their policy?

A: The control of Northern Shan depends heavily on the statements made by KIO Lieutenant General Gun Maw during Kachin Revolution Day on February 5. He spoke about connecting Kachin, Naga, Chin, and Arakan units to dominate the "Ka Thone Lone" area (Katha, Kawlin, Kanbalu). This would block the entrance to Sagaing and create a contiguous liberated zone across the West and Northwest, eventually leading to a sea outlet.

The MNDAA's push to Namhkam is likely a Chinese preparation in case the KIO actually implements that plan. After the KIO discussed these western units, the "Win Wa" battle broke out in Tanintharyi (between Dawei and Myeik). The KNU and PDFs attacked there, eventually using drones on the Myeik Air Force base.

China does not seem geopolitically comfortable with the fighting in Tanintharyi. Soon after those events, the MNDAA's Northern Shan battles intensified. We cannot look at a war in one region in isolation. From a geopolitical lens, the Western bloc's "Malacca trade" is key. The Tanintharyi coast is crucial just outside the Malacca Strait. China’s concern that the West might enter the Tanintharyi coast has led to the emergence of territory control by pro-China EAOs in Northern and Northeastern Myanmar.

KIA's Lt-Gen Gun Maw and Sagaing Region

Q: Looking at the Northern Shan situation, what will happen to the Brotherhood Alliance (3 Brothers)?

A: To be honest, the "3 Brothers" is just a temporary alliance for an armed revolution. In the long run, when the interests of individual organizations diverge, it cannot last. When an organization lacks a long-term military or alliance vision, it will fragment. We are already seeing them clash. If their interests interfere with the relationship between the Myanmar government and the Chinese government, they will be sidelined regardless of their alliance structure.

Q: In the current parliamentary landscape, we are seeing Kachin representatives included. What could this indicate?

A: From my perspective, there are three key actors in Myanmar’s ongoing armed conflicts and peace process: the Kachin, the Karen, and the Rakhine. If peace can be achieved with these three groups, resolving Myanmar’s armed political conflicts would become much more feasible.

In that context, the role of the KIA/KIO, particularly in areas including Sagaing Region, is especially important for bringing the process to a conclusion. At present, Kachin representatives have secured seats in the legislature. Moreover, if we consider the rotational arrangement for positions such as the vice presidency, it appears that it may now be the turn of the Kachin or Rakhine, which suggests a real possibility.

It is also possible that individuals from the Kachin community—both men and women—who previously served under the SAC have been selected with the expectation that this could facilitate future peace efforts with the KIA. Of course, there may be other reasons as well, which I cannot say for certain.

Overall, this is just an assessment of how current government leaders may be thinking. Nevertheless, I see it as a positive development, and it is likely to be beneficial.

Regions along the Northeastern Corridor

Q: In 2009, during peace negotiations, groups like the Rakhine and others were excluded by the Tatmadaw. In the current situation, if some armed groups are left out—whether due to weaker strength or because they are not actively fighting the military—can peace still be achieved?

A: That is difficult to predict. At present, there are calls for an all-inclusive approach to peace. However, when it comes to actual implementation, circumstances can change in many ways, making it hard to say in advance.

That said, the current Commander-in-Chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, has invited all groups to participate. But in reality, formal negotiations have not fully begun yet, although some processes are underway.

Given that some groups are still actively engaged in conflict and strongly opposing the military, the situation remains highly fluid and difficult to assess.

Q: In the current context, what kind of approach is needed to ensure inclusive participation?

A: In my view, simply inviting all groups is not enough. Their interests differ, as do the importance and conditions of the territories where conflicts are taking place. These differences can significantly affect the process.

Therefore, achieving “all-inclusiveness” will likely require a bilateral approach—engaging each group individually. Unlike during the NCA process, where there was an attempt to include many groups at once, such an approach may be difficult under current conditions.

In practice, since interests vary, separate negotiations tailored to each group will likely be necessary. The peace process involves many stages, and it is unlikely that everything can happen simultaneously. Many steps and conditions must be navigated first.

Ultimately, outcomes will depend on how these preparatory phases are managed and whether they succeed or fail, which will shape future developments.

Sagaing Region's areas controlled by the KIA

Q: Regarding the Arakan Army (AA), what should the military do?

A: If you look at the map, the AA is fighting for Kyaukpyu and Sittwe. The war won't stop. The AA is also connected to three regions: Ayeyarwady, Western Bago, and Western Magway. Rakhine's Ann is linked to Magway and Padan is linked to Western Bago.

They are even patrolling near Defense Industry (Ka-Pa-Sa) factories 5 through 11. The Pathein-Monywa road has become highly strategic. The AA’s goals are the most ambitious among the EAOs. By seizing a state capital, they are aiming for either a Sovereign State or a Sub-autonomy State.

The AA is moving toward a "Confederation" or a Sovereign-style goal. The state will have to work very hard to resolve this political conflict, which is currently being fought militarily.

Q: Do you have anything else you’d like to add?

A: Our political and military conflicts have reached a critical juncture. We cannot just look inside our borders; we must view this through geopolitical connections. We are seeing a "Bipolarization" between China and the US. Countries caught in the middle often suffer.

Myanmar is central to the "China Containment Policy" regarding the Tanintharyi coast and the Malacca Strait. Conversely, Myanmar is China’s "Alternative Way" to the Indian Ocean via deep-sea ports in Kyaukpyu, Dawei, and Yangon. Geopolitical games are arriving directly in Myanmar. We need a broader vision that links local peace efforts with international trends to find a solution.

CNI News

March 21, 2026

Military and political analysts are weighing in on whether China is attempting to gain full control over Northern Shan State, following the recent military territorial disputes between the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA).

The Chinese government wields significant influence over the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and the Three Brotherhood Alliance (AA, TNLA, and MNDAA) operating in Northern Shan State, possessing the power to control and utilize them as needed. Analysts believe China is certainly behind the recent conflict that erupted between the MNDAA and the TNLA.

Political analyst Dr. Ann Kaw La told CNI News that the conflict suggests China is assigning the MNDAA—a group with whom it shares a reliable and good relationship—to take responsibility for and maintain the west bank of the Salween River.

"There are two Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) that are on good terms with China. One is the UWSA. I believe the UWSA is currently responsible for Kengtung on the east bank of the Salween, while the MNDAA is assigned to manage the west bank up to Kutkai and Hsenwi," Dr. Ann Kaw La said. "The Union Highway from Lashio to Mandalay is currently under the control of the government military. However, between Muse and Lashio for the crucial Muse-Kutkai section, it is assumed China has tasked the MNDAA to maintain it. We see it as China entrusting the MNDAA to take charge of that section west of the Salween."

A map illustrating China’s control over Northern Shan State and the Union Highway project

It is reported that while the TNLA sent a letter to China and the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC) to mediate the conflict with the MNDAA, China instructed the FPNCC not to get involved.

Political analyst Dr. Aung Myo told CNI News that although some claim China is not involved in the MNDAA-TNLA conflict, it is evident that it occurred due to Chinese influence. He noted that while China wishes for peace in Myanmar, it is also "playing" the country for its own interests.

"Our view is that the MNDAA will fight for as much as they can get to open up the border route. Once opened, China will step in as a broker, using the MNDAA as bargaining power. They will position themselves to say, 'I will give this, but you must do this for me,'" Dr. Aung Myo said. "If this continues, a major explosion [of public anger] will eventually occur because no Myanmar citizen will accept it. China wants peace, but they also want to play the country. We don't like that. Neighbors should be honest with each other. Even if they say they aren't involved, we know their influence is there."

Military and political observers point out that the TNLA has been on strained terms with China since 2025 due to its firm stance against returning certain territories to the military (Tatmadaw) when requested. Consequently, China may view the TNLA as an obstacle to its border trade route interests.

Military representative Lt-Gen Ko Ko Oo, Chinese Special Envoy Deng Xijun, and MNDAA leaders

Another political analyst suggested that China is using the MNDAA—which it controls more fully—to secure border trade routes in Northern Shan State, with indications that the group may even move to seize Namhkam. However, the analyst doubted the TNLA would dare to retake territories lost to the MNDAA, sensing China’s involvement behind the scenes.

"When the military couldn't effectively crack down on the Jia Pian (online scam) operations that were hurting Chinese interests, China helped the Brotherhood Alliance attack the military. I see it as China providing total assistance to ensure a safe route along its BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) path," the analyst said. "However, China does not want the military government to collapse entirely. They calculate that if the military falls, the NUG would come to power, and they don't trust the NUG as much. Because the areas held by the MNDAA, TNLA, and AA are vital for the BRI, China assisted them. Now, regarding the conflict between their 'proxies' (MNDAA and TNLA), China is simply choosing which subordinate is more capable and reliable."

Following the MNDAA's takeover of Kutkai—a town previously held by the TNLA during Operation 1027—the two sides held a meeting in Laukkai. While the TNLA stated as of the morning of March 19 that no final answer had been reached, reports have emerged that the two groups have agreed to a ceasefire.

CNI News

March 21, 2026

Military and political analysts have pointed out that while there is widespread talk of building a Federal Union in Myanmar, political forces remain divided over the actual "federal design," and a common consensus has yet to be reached.

While ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and various political parties seek to establish a "Federal Democratic Union," the Government-Military side maintains a stance on building a "Democratic Federal Union." However, the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) specifically stipulates the establishment of a Union based on federalism and democracy.

Political analyst U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News that there should be thorough debates involving all ethnic groups and organizations regarding which federal design should be used to build Myanmar, suggesting that a new design unique to the country's needs might even emerge.

"We should have serious debates involving all organizations and ethnic groups on how to build a federal Myanmar. Only after thorough discussion can we decide on the form—which global federal design to adopt," U Htet Aung Kyaw said. "During these debates, one group might like one model while another prefers something else, which could lead to endless arguments. In such a situation, a new design that fits our country could emerge. We must think and act this way. Otherwise, if one side implements what it thinks is right and the other side dislikes it, the country will remain stuck. It is best to discuss thoroughly to reach a consensus on the path forward."

A map representing the Union of Myanmar

Federalism is a political system based on the division of power between the central government and states/regions, ensuring national equality and self-determination to build a genuine Union. For a multi-ethnic country like Myanmar, it is seen as the most suitable system to prevent dictatorship and effectively meet local needs.

U Htet Aung Kyaw further noted that perspectives on federalism have evolved significantly since 2010.

"Since 2010, the word 'federal' is no longer a forbidden term. There is now a general concept that applying it would be good for the country. However, exactly how to apply it remains unclear," he said. "In the past, federalism was portrayed as a path to secession, but now all organizations accept that it is beneficial for Myanmar. This is great progress. Now we must continue discussing the specific form—why it should be applied and what the potential weaknesses are—to move toward a positive outcome."

Currently, 88 countries worldwide—including the United States, Germany, Canada, Switzerland, Australia, Mexico, Nigeria, Spain, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka—practice various models of federalism.

U Saw Than Myint, Joint Secretary of the Shan and Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP), told CNI News that a nationally accepted federal design does not yet exist in Myanmar.

A workshop on federalism in progress

"There is no federally agreed-upon design that the whole country has consented to yet. But federalism concerns everyone—not just a single party or organization. It is simply a system where people manage and govern their own regions and localities," U Saw Than Myint explained. "People in a ward manage their ward; people in a township manage their township. Similarly, people in States and Regions manage their own areas. Broadly speaking, this is federalism. Different regions and states may have different conditions, so they should implement a system that fits their locality, based on the right to manage and govern without violating the Constitution."

Military and political analysts cautioned that when building a Federal Union, it is vital not to confuse "federalism" with "democracy," keeping the two concepts distinct. 

They pointed out that the collapse of the Soviet Union was partly due to the entanglement of federal and democratic structures.

Furthermore, observers warned that since the "Burmese Way to Socialism" under General Ne Win failed and led to national ruin, stakeholders should be extremely cautious when attempting to construct a "Burmese Way to Federalism."

CNI News

March 21, 2026

Public members, tourism operators, and entrepreneurs are pointing out that the restriction of fuel sales at major filling stations for the fuel frugality is causing the fuel black market to expand more rapidly than before.

According to the domestic fuel reference prices released on March 20, 2026, prices are as follows:

92 Octane: 3,610 Kyats per liter, 95 Octane: 3,850 Kyats per liter, Standard Diesel: 4,390 Kyats per liter, Premium Diesel: 4,820 Kyats per liter.

Amidst these fuel difficulties, the illegal fuel black market is flourishing. 

U Naung Naung Han, Chairman of the Myanmar Tourism Federation, told CNI News that the fuel crisis is significantly impacting the black market, both directly and indirectly.

People queuing to fill fuel

"We are seeing many cases of duplicated vehicle licenses. There are also a vast number of unlicensed motorcycles, three-wheelers, and sidecars in use. As far as I know, most of them do not have official licenses. Since their fuel consumption is substantial, it's clear there is illegal buying and selling of fuel involved," he said.

He added that in cities like Mandalay, these hardships have caused the black market to swell, with external prices soaring to more than double the official rates. 

Businesses that rely on generators but lack vehicle-style licenses also face shortages, further fueling the demand for illegal supplies.

The public has highlighted several critical issues arising from the current situation:

Price Inflation: In the black market, fuel prices have reached between 9,000 to 15,000 Kyats per liter.

Transportation Costs: This has led to a spike in rental fees for Tuk-Tuks (Thone Bane) and motorcycle taxis (Carry).

 Scene at a fuel filling station

License Fraud: The use of "clone" license plates has led to "original" owners being unable to purchase fuel because their QR code quota has already been used by a fraudulent vehicle.

Economic analyst U Htay Aung Kyi told CNI News that because fuel is already sold with a set limit (quota) via QR codes, the "Odd-Even" day driving restriction (based on license plate numbers) is no longer practical and should be reconsidered.

"If fuel is already limited [via quota], the Odd-Even system isn't sustainable for the long term. If you have a limit, it doesn't matter which day you drive; you can't use more than your share anyway. We don't want this to further damage the economy," U Htay Aung Kyi explained.

The public reports that fuel difficulties are now affecting:  Manufacturing & Production: Hampered by fuel costs and availability. 

Tourism & Private Offices: Disrupted by the Odd-Even driving schedule.

Education: Parents are facing significant hurdles in transporting students to school.