CNI News

10 February 2026

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, stated that armed organizations are seeking their own interests through the production and sale of narcotics and the illegal extraction of local natural resources.

He made these remarks during a meeting with the Chairman of the Election Commission, the Chairman of the Naypyidaw Council, and Chief Ministers of Regions and States on February 9, 2026.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said, "In unstable regions, organizations carrying out terrorist acts with weapons are forcibly seeking self-interest for their own benefit by producing and selling drugs, and illegally extracting natural resources produced in those areas."

He further stated that due to these terrorist organizations, regional instability has occurred, leading to the closure of basic education schools and causing many children to lose their fundamental rights. He added that to ensure the public can fully enjoy peace and stability, terrorist organizations must be suppressed by mobilizing the strength of the Military (Tatmadaw), the Myanmar Police Force, and the public.

In Myanmar, on February 1, 2021, the Myanmar Military ousted the NLD government, claiming it attempted to form a government without resolving disputes over the 2020 general election voter lists.

Subsequently, the NUG, CRPH, NUCC, PDFs, and several Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) have been striving to topple the Myanmar Military, leading to intense armed conflicts across the country.

Alongside these armed conflicts, there has been an increase in drug prevalence and smuggling within Myanmar. Armed groups have also engaged in the extraction and sale of local natural resources to fund the purchase of weapons and ammunition.

Military and political observers have pointed out that armed organizations are increasingly using the illegal import of drugs, arms smuggling, and the extraction of natural resources for their own personal gain.

CNI News

10 February 2026

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has stated that it must stand guard against the enemy in Sagaing Region, which it considers the “front gate” of its home territory.

Lieutenant General Gun Maw, a senior leader of the KIA, said that this position was conveyed by their side during a meeting with Chinese government officials on February 2. He made the remarks in an online speech commemorating the 65th anniversary of the Kachin Revolution, held in Texas, United States.

Lieutenant General Gun Maw also serves as Vice Chairman (1) of the Kachin Independence Council (KIC), the administrative body of the KIA.

He said: “The Chinese government told us not to engage in fighting. We cannot avoid it. We must carry out military operations together with the democratic forces. Especially in Sagaing Region, which is the front gate of our home compound, we must stand guard against the enemy. We told them on February 2 that ensuring security in Sagaing Region together with local forces, and securing the gateway to Kachin State, is something we must definitely do.”

A view of Sagaing Region

He also said that they have asked Naypyidaw whether the National Unity Government (NUG) and the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) would hold talks, and that the KIA/KIO would not engage in talks as a single individual or single organization.

After the Myanmar military overthrew the NLD government and seized state power on February 1, 2021, the KIA has provided military and political support—including weapons and ammunition—to the NUG and People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) in efforts to overthrow the Myanmar military.

At present, the KIA is supplying weapons and ammunition to PDFs, LPDFs, and other ethnic armed organizations within Sagaing Region and is conducting battles to seize towns.

KIA–PDF joint forces

By providing weapons and assistance to local armed groups and other EAOs, the KIA currently controls Indaw Town, Pinlebu Town, and Shwe Pyi Aye Town in Sagaing Region.

Similarly, fighting is ongoing to gain control over Kawlin, Htigyaing, Wuntho, Pale, Yinmarbin, Tagaung, Homalin, Hpaungbyin, Tamu, Kalay, the Naga area, Monywa, Chaung-U, and Shwebo within Sagaing Region.

If the KIA succeeds in controlling Sagaing Region, it will be preparing to apply further military pressure on Mandalay Region and Magway Region. At the same time, it is working to link Rakhine State, Chin State, Sagaing Region, and Kachin State in an effort to achieve liberation across the entire northwestern region.

CNI News

February 9, 2026

Military and political analysts are weighing in on the potential impact of the Union Consultative Council Law, enacted on February 3, 2026, on Myanmar’s political landscape.

Analysts draw a distinction between the "State Counsellor" role during the NLD era and this new council:

Under the NLD era, the State Counsellor Law focused on an individual (Daw Aung San Suu Kyi) working alongside the President.

According to the current law approved by Acting President Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, this law creates a collective group to work with the President.

Political analyst U An Kaw La told CNI News that a consultative group could make government implementation more effective.

He noted that a single government is insufficient to navigate the current complexities of Myanmar, ASEAN dynamics, and regional power balancing.

He views the Council as a "State Think Tank" necessary for studying the rapid changes in global policies and strategies.

Having a dedicated counseling body allows the government to focus on implementation while the think tank handles strategic analysis.

Dr. Aye Maung, Chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), suggests this could lead to lasting peace:

He believes the Council will allow for "overlapping" governance, where stability from one 5-year term is handed over to the next.

He argued that if this stability can be maintained through three consecutive 5-year terms, Myanmar could achieve genuine peace, democratic transition, and a federal union.

The law was enacted by the National Defense and Security Council (NDSC) using legislative powers under Section 427 of the Constitution. Key details of the Union Consultative Council Law include:

Structure: Contains 4 chapters and 11 sections.

Composition: The President appoints a council of at least 5 members, including a Chairman and a Secretary.

Authority: The President defines the duties and powers of the Council, placing it directly under presidential authority.

Observers speculate that if Senior General Min Aung Hlaing continues as President, the Council's leadership could look like this:

Chairman: Vice-Senior General Soe Win, Secretary: General Ye Win Oo, Members: Likely to be former military officials currently assigned to civilian roles.

CNI News

9 February 2026

The Myanmar Military (Tatmadaw) and the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA) have officially announced that they regained full control of Banmauk, a town in Upper Sagaing Region, on February 8, 2026.

On September 15, 2025, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and People’s Defense Forces (PDF) launched an offensive to capture Banmauk and KIA-PDF joint forces successfully seized control of Banmauk on September 20, 2025.

After a counter-offensive lasting over four months, the SNA and Myanmar Military reclaimed the area.

According to statements from the Myanmar Military, the operation to retake the town involved: 69 clashes (both large and small scale) against KIA-PDF forces. Seizure of weaponry: 27 assorted firearms, along with ammunition and grenades.

The Myanmar Military’s report alleged that KIA-PDF forces utilized religious buildings, schools, hospitals, government offices, homes, and hotels as fortified bunkers. It further claimed that local civilians were used as "human shields" during the fighting.

Current Situation: Efforts are reportedly underway to: Clear debris and explosive remnants. Facilitate the return of local residents to their homes. Initiate urban reconstruction projects as quickly as possible.

CNI Interview

February 9, 2026

Following the completion of the 2025 General Election in Myanmar, Parliament (Hluttaw) is scheduled to convene in March, with a new government set to be formed in April. 
Prior to this, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing signed and enacted the Union Consultative Council Law on February 3, 2026. 

Meanwhile, China and India are closely monitoring how trade and peace processes will evolve once the new government takes office. CNI News contacted political analyst U An Kaw La to discuss these developments.

CNI: There are rumors that the new government will be a "National Reconciliation" or "Coalition" type. Wouldn't it be more effective if government departments had some level of decentralized authority rather than the Union government holding all the power? If they just have to follow central orders, will anything really change?

U An Kaw La: Since the era of the State Administration Council (SAC), there has been a roadmap stating that Myanmar will move toward democracy and a federal system. They have declared this since 2021 and have consistently stuck to this principle as the first point of the political roadmap. In democracy and federalism, Decentralization and the Division of Power are key. The important thing is how these will be implemented.

Since the policy already exists, the bylaws must follow. Implementation would be a positive move—a "good transition." The real question is the extent of decentralization: will it be "control-based decentralization" or true autonomy? These are critical political decisions. Much depends on how magnanimous the current ruling party and the Military Commission are. If they can create a precursor model for future peace, it would build trust. Whether it happens and to what extent remains to be seen.

CNI: What is your view on the newly enacted Union Consultative Council Law?

U An Kaw La: I see this as an evolution of existing legal frameworks. During the NLD government, there was the "State Counsellor Law," which was person-centric, specifically created for Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to lead alongside the government.

Now, the "Union Consultative Council" suggests a group-based approach. This group will likely coordinate with the Executive and the Legislature to handle national stability, peace, international relations, and legal matters. In my view, an aggregate group is better because it can provide a power balance and stronger counter-balances. I see this as a "Methodology" for the democratization and federal transition period. It implements the roadmap by working through three collective bodies.

CNI: The law states the President must assign duties and powers to the Council. How much authority do you think the Council will actually have?

U An Kaw La: I view this as a State Think Tank. Currently, we see advisory roles within the Military Commission and the SAC. In a complex landscape—navigating ASEAN, regional issues, and balancing global superpowers—a government cannot act alone. It needs an elite group of experts.

The global context is changing rapidly. We need a Council that constantly studies the strategies and policies of other nations. I like this idea. Having a high-level Think Tank to counsel the government will make implementation more effective.

CNI: The President has the power to appoint the Chairman and Secretary of the Union Comsultative Council. What kind of individuals do you expect to see?

U An Kaw La: Legally, the President is the highest head of state under the 2008 Constitution, so this is consistent. While it is hard to predict specific names, I expect to see influential ethnic leaders included. This would be beneficial. Our country needs a coalition-style leadership.

If the leadership continues to be dominated solely by the Bamar ethnic group, it isn't ideal for long-term peace. Including ethnic intellectuals in the leadership would facilitate a more collective and successful political transition.

CNI: Regarding the military situation, what are the attitudes of China toward the KIA (Kachin) and the AA (Arakan) in the current context?

U An Kaw La: We must estimate China’s policy. China prefers a strong, stable institution at the center, but they also favor "tax autonomy" and "trade autonomy" linked with peace processes.

Looking at the current conflicts along the border, we can see China’s positioning. Myanmar needs to consider a "New Ideology" for the Union. If we base our thinking on the non-disintegration of the Union and ethnic unity while integrating this new ideology, we will get closer to a real solution. This is a major responsibility for the new government.

CNI: What factors have allowed the KIA and AA to become so strong and well-established?

U An Kaw La: This requires an analysis of Geopolitics. It depends on the shifting policies of China and India. Both the KIA and AA directly interact with India and China along the borders. I don't see direct pressure from India or China in these interactions; rather, they seem to follow policies focused on their own border states.

The alliance dynamics between China and India shifted after the meeting between Modi and Xi Jinping at the last SCO summit. We see plans for trade routes like the Panwa-Kanpaiti road. The survival and actions of the AA and KIA are now deeply intertwined with the diplomacy of India, China, and the Myanmar government. We need a more sophisticated diplomatic approach; otherwise, things will remain difficult.

CNI News

6 February 2026

Political analyst U An Kaw La told CNI News Agency that the upcoming new government needs to anticipate the direction China intends to take within Myanmar’s military and political landscape.

He said that China favors strong and stable leadership from the current central government and that it is necessary to consider the forms China seeks to implement in Rakhine State, Kachin State, and northern Shan State.

U An Kaw La said: “We need to anticipate China’s policy. If we can predict how China wants to proceed, handling issues related to Rakhine and Kachin will become much easier. If we do not understand China’s policy, it becomes difficult. China’s stance is that it prefers strong, stable institutions leading from the current central government. Another point is tax autonomy and autonomous trade arrangements that are implemented alongside peace. I believe China favors such models. This is because if we observe the way China has established its footholds along the border areas in the context of current conflicts, we can analyze that such a pattern already exists. Based on that foothold, we need to consider how to approach the peace process.

 Chinese President Xi Jinping meeting with Senior General Min Aung Hlaing

How issues in Rakhine, northern Shan, and Kachin are implemented follows that same pattern (China’s way of establishing footholds along the border). From our side, we also need to consider introducing a new ideology. This is important for the Union. If we ground our thinking in the principles of preserving the Union, preventing disintegration, and strengthening ethnic unity, and then incorporate a new ideology into that framework, I believe we will come closer to the right answers. This is a major responsibility of the new government.”

China’s Special Envoy for Asian Affairs, Mr. Deng Xijun, stated on December 29, 2025, that holding the 2025 multi-party democratic general election was an agreement reached between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.

At present, instead of putting direct pressure on armed groups in Myanmar, China is mainly applying pressure indirectly by urging the “Wa” armed group to withdraw support.

In the current political landscape of Myanmar, although northern armed groups have agreed to ceasefires with the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw), analysts note that the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Arakan Army (AA) are growing stronger and appear increasingly capable of establishing themselves in their respective territories.

Political analyst U An Kaw La told CNI News Agency that in the upcoming government environment, relations among the government, China, India, KIA, and AA will become increasingly important, depending on the positions, policy changes, and movements of China and India.

 Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and KIA and AA leaders

He said: “In short, geopolitics needs to be analyzed extensively. The positions, policy changes, and movements of China and India are crucial. This is because both KIA and AA maintain relations with both India and China. These are direct interactions along border areas. In my view, neither the Indian nor Chinese governments tend to apply direct pressure through formal diplomacy or border affairs. Instead, they primarily engage through relations that focus on their respective regional states.

Changes in the China–India alliance dynamic became noticeable after Modi and Xi Jinping last met at the SCO Summit. Following that meeting, new conditions emerged, including plans to implement trade routes such as the Pansaung–Kanpaikti road. What the next government will do cannot yet be stated clearly. However, given the trend toward closer relations, the survival and actions of AA and KIA will increasingly depend on the positions of India and China, as well as Myanmar government diplomacy. These factors must be carefully analyzed and addressed. Otherwise, it will be quite difficult.”

China currently has numerous investment projects in Myanmar, including the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone, the Myitsone Dam, elevated railway projects, the Kanpaikti Economic Cooperation Zone, the Muse–Mandalay trade road and railway, and the Ruili–Mandalay–Kyaukphyu expressway, among others.

CNI News

6 February 2026

Political analyst U Kyaw Htet told CNI News that if the ministers appointed to Myanmar's government cabinets are weak, central control will become more dominant.

Domestic and international political observers have analyzed that the upcoming new government is likely to be formed with a focus on national reconciliation. They suggest that if such a government is formed, prominent political leaders may be appointed to lead respective ministries.

U Kyaw Htet noted that the division of ministries will occur only after negotiations between Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which won the majority of seats in the election and is set to form the government. He emphasized that while the Parliament (Hluttaw) must oversee the government, ministries must also be granted full executive authority.

U Kyaw Htet stated: "If the Parliament cannot provide constructive checks, balances, and discussions on government actions, the political landscape will likely fall under centralized power. If the Parliament can maintain a 'check and balance' system and if ministers are granted independent authority over their respective sectors, progress can be made. Therefore, we hope to see qualified and capable individuals appointed as ministers. Simply put, if ministers are highly competent and sharp in handling state affairs, central control will decrease. Conversely, if ministers are weak, centralized control will regain its strength."

A session of Hluttaw in progress.

Political parties have pointed out that a national unity government is necessary to resolve the current armed conflicts and political crises. The Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) has stated that during its five-year administrative period, it intends to move toward a political system based on democracy and federalism.

Political analyst U An Kaw La told CNI News that while a national reconciliation government would be beneficial, its success depends on the magnanimity of the winning party and the current authorities.

He said: "In a democratic system—and there has been a roadmap toward democracy and federalism since the SAC took over in 2021—the key elements are decentralization and the division of power. The policy exists; the regulations must follow. If implemented, it would be a positive move. The question is the extent of decentralization—whether it will be 'control-based' or true 'autonomy.' These are critical political factors. The magnanimity of the current ruling party and the leading commission is vital. Establishing such a precedent would serve as a model for future peace and trust-building. I believe it is good if it happens, but I will have to study to what extent they actually grant authority."

An illustration depicting the government and justice.

2025-2026 Election Results The multi-party democratic general election in Myanmar was held in three phases, beginning on December 28, 2025, and successfully concluding on January 25, 2026. The Union Election Commission (UEC) released the final list of elected representatives on February 3, 2026.

According to the announcement, the winning seat counts are as follows: Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP): 739,National Unity Party (NUP): 68, Shan and Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP/White Tiger): 39,People's Party (PP): 30, People's Pioneer Party (PPP): 20.

Pa-O National Organisation (PNO): 18,Mon Unity Party (MUP): 17,Naga National Party: 12,Arakan Front Party (AFP): 8,Karen National Democratic Party: 7,Zomi Congress for Democracy: 7,Myanmar Farmers' Development Party: 6,Arakan National Party (ANP): 6, Shanni Nationalities Solidarity Party (SNSP): 5,Danu Nationalities Democracy Party: 5, Tai-leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP): 4,Intha National Organisation: 4, Kayah State People's Party: 3,Kachin State People's Party: 3.

CNI News

February 5, 2026

General N'Ban La, Chairman of the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO/KIA), urged people not to destroy the beautiful shared history of the Shan and Kachin ethnic groups. He made these remarks in a speech delivered today, February 5, 2026, marking the 65th Kachin Revolution Day.

Regarding the relationship between the two groups, General N'Ban La stated:

"I want to speak to the public regarding our Shan brothers and sisters living alongside us. Shan and Kachin peoples have lived together for generations throughout history. Despite the military junta's attempts to create division, let us not allow our beautiful history to be broken. Let us rebuild with love for future development. Let us remain vigilant against deceptive media reports to avoid being misled by misinformation."

The KIO established the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) on February 5, 1961. This date has since been commemorated as Kachin Revolution Day, now reaching its 65th anniversary.

While the KIO/KIA is based in Kachin State, it currently maintains military operations and territorial control in Northern Shan State and Sagaing Region, areas inhabited by various Shan ethnic subgroups, including the Shanni (Tai Leng).

The bodies of 12 Shanni men abandoned in a monastery in Banmauk after being killed (Source: Shanni Empire).

Because of this, intense fighting has broken out with the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA), a group striving for equality and rights for Shan subgroups within the Sagaing Region.

Local Shan communities in Kachin State, Shan State, and Sagaing Region have raised serious allegations against the KIA/KIO, including:

Forced recruitment and arbitrary arrests. Physical abuse and killings. Sexual violence against women. Attempts at "Kachinization" (forced cultural assimilation) and general oppression.

In January, Shanni community members reported that the KIA killed 12 Shanni men in Banmauk Township. There have also been reports of killings involving Shanni monks and members of Shanni literature and culture associations.

Political analysts point out that the KIO/KIA leadership must effectively manage and restrain these actions on the ground if they truly hope to implement peaceful coexistence between the Kachin and Shan ethnic nationalities.

CNI News

January 5, 2026

In the political and military landscape that will emerge after the elections, China may be able to draw the “Wa” Army (UWSA), the Kokang Army (MNDAA), and the Mongla Army (NDAA) onto the peace process, according to China–Myanmar affairs analyst Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, who spoke to CNI News.

She said that regardless of which government comes to power after the elections in Myanmar, China will recognize and support it. In the coming military situation, China may attempt to bring the Wa, Mongla, and Kokang groups to the peace negotiation table.

Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw stated: “China will support and recognize whoever comes to power in Myanmar. Even if the USDP comes to power, China will support it. China’s perspective is that if development advances and people’s economic conditions improve, stability will follow. That’s how they calculate it. So if a proper government emerges, China will be able to carry out its projects in Myanmar effectively. They have investments here—projects like the roads leading to the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port and others. If all of these are implemented and Myanmar’s basic infrastructure improves significantly, China believes the country will become stable and peaceful. Therefore, I think China will continue to support the next government. They will try to promote economic development. China will definitely enter through economic means. They will work to improve infrastructure and help ease people’s livelihoods.

Colonel Khun Okkar

“Even now, what I’m hearing is that China is very actively and intensively involved in border areas such as Wa, Mongla, and Kokang. They are deeply involved in agriculture and other sectors, providing assistance. Through this approach, they try to stabilize one side and then bring everyone to the peace negotiation table. I think that’s what China is attempting.”

Chinese investment projects in Myanmar include the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone, the Myitsone Dam, elevated railways, the Kanpiketi (Kanpaiti) economic cooperation zone, the Muse–Mandalay trade route and railway, the Ruili–Mandalay–Kyaukphyu expressway, among many others.

Whether China will come to dominate Myanmar is difficult to say. However, Myanmar is in a position where it will have to rely on China to some extent. The incoming government could be one that cooperates strategically with China, according to Colonel Khun Okkar, Chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), which is a signatory to the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), speaking to CNI News.

 Two leaders from PNLO and ALP

He said: “China prioritizes economics. No matter what system a country is governed under, as long as the country is stable and China can conduct its business, that is enough for them. So whether it’s peace or democracy—whatever the issue—China doesn’t place much importance on that. What China truly cares about is stability. Stability is the core of its foreign policy. If there is stability, China can operate. It’s hard to say that China will dominate. Between one country and another, one sovereignty and another, one government and another, what they call it is ‘strategic cooperation.’ That’s a political term. But the element of dependence will still exist. Given the country’s current situation, reconstruction cannot be done independently.“Politically, armed organizations can be invited back to the negotiation table. The government can continue the NCA-based peace talks that are currently underway. Those who are fighting can be invited back as well. I believe they will repeat the methods used by U Thein Sein—approaches that can ease international sanctions.”

Organizations that have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) include: the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA), Karen National Union / Karen National Liberation Army–Peace Council (KNU/KNLA-PC), Arakan Liberation Party (ALP), PNLO, New Mon State Party (NMSP), Chin National Front (CNF), All Burma Students’ Democratic Front (ABSDF), Lahu Democratic Union (LDU), and the Karen National Union (KNU).

However, following the political changes after February 1, 2021, CNF, ABSDF, and KNU withdrew, stating that the NCA had collapsed. PNLO, ALP, LDU, and NMSP also split into two factions. Meanwhile, groups that have not signed the NCA include UWSA, NDAA, MNDAA, TNLA, KIA, SSPP, AA, and KNPP.