CNI News

March 6, 2026

U Khun Sai, a participant in the peace process, told CNI News that the incoming new government should follow a non-aligned policy between its powerful neighbors, China and India.

He warned that if the country leans entirely toward one side, Myanmar will remain a nation in name only.

"If we do that, two things could happen," U Khun Sai said. "One is that our country remains only in name. Practically, it would belong to others. On the positive side, one might hope that after nearly 80 years of failing to achieve peace through self-rule, falling under another country's influence might bring peace similar to theirs. That’s one perspective.

The other is that if we align strictly with either India or China, and those two remain at odds, we will suffer the fallout. If we can maintain friendship with both, we have nothing to worry about. We must proceed with a non-aligned policy. Currently, while most people reject many sections of the 2008 Constitution, the principles that the country is a non-aligned state and that no foreign troops shall be stationed on our soil are points everyone can agree on. These should continue."

Indian Prime Minister Modi and Myanmar's Acting President Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.

Military and political analysts point out that while both nations have played crucial roles in Myanmar’s affairs since the 2021 political shift, their approaches differ significantly.

China holds the greatest influence over Myanmar's affairs. Its key interests include:

The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). The Kyaukphyu Deep Sea Port and oil/gas pipelines. Significant influence over the Northern Alliance ethnic armed groups.

In current border conflicts, China acts as a mediator to protect its interests. On the international stage, such as at the UN, China acts as a staunch partner, using its veto power to shield the Myanmar government from pressure.

India strives to maintain ties with Myanmar to ensure the stability of its northeastern states. India's primary concerns are: Countering Chinese influence.

Preventing Indian separatist groups from taking refuge along the Myanmar border.

Consequently, India keeps communication lines open with the Myanmar military. Projects like the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway are vital to India’s "Act East" policy. While India, as the world's largest democracy, often voices support for Myanmar’s democratic transition, it does not intervene as publicly in internal affairs as China does.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Myanmar's Acting President Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.

A political analyst told CNI News that while the new government’s policy might be to treat both nations fairly, the neighbors' policies toward Myanmar could shift. He warned that choosing a single path could lead to greater trouble.

"If the government chooses just one side, it will face more difficulties," the analyst said. "For example, if it aligns too closely with India on competitive issues—like natural gas sales—it could cause problems with China. China might tolerate a road project through Rakhine and Chin states to Assam and Manipur because that primarily concerns India. But if Myanmar gives India something that directly competes with Chinese interests, China won't be happy. They won't say it directly, but they will express their dissatisfaction in whatever way they can.

I don't think the policy of the next government will differ much from the current military government’s approach. They will likely try to balance both sides. However, the challenge is that the policies of these two giants toward us may change."

Analysts highlight that Myanmar’s current challenge is a "tug-of-war" of perceptions: India fears Myanmar leaning too far toward China, while China is displeased if Myanmar gets too close to India.

This is most evident in Rakhine State, which hosts both China's Kyaukphyu project and the Sittwe Port—the most critical component of India's Kaladan project. However, under current ground conditions, China appears to have a greater capacity for practical intervention.

CNI News

March 5, 2026

Ambassadors from Saudi Arabia and Nicaragua presented their credentials to Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, on March 5, 2026.

Nicaragua appointed H.E. Mr. Segundo Martin Calero Escorcia as the Ambassador to Myanmar, who formally presented his credentials to the Senior General.

Similarly, Saudi Arabia appointed H.E. Mr. Maziad Mohammed M Al Howishan as the Ambassador to Myanmar, who also presented his credentials to Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.

The Nicaraguan Ambassador presenting his credentials to Senior General Min Aung Hlaing

Following the presentation, they discussed:

Opportunities for increasing bilateral investments and trade promotion.

The status of the upcoming parliamentary session to be convened in the near future.

CNI News

March 5, 2026

The Myanmar Fuel Oil Importers and Distributors Association (MPTA) issued an announcement on March 5, 2026, stating that fuel shortages in Myanmar are absolutely impossible due to the continuous arrival of oil tankers.

The association urged the public not to waste time waiting in lines out of unnecessary concern.

The MPTA highlighted that they are importing and distributing fuel to the public under the guidance of the Fuel Oil Import, Storage, and Distribution Supervisory Committee.

Official Statement Highlights

"While there may be some temporary delays in importing fuel from abroad due to current events in the Middle East, we have already pre-arranged sufficient reserve fuel to ensure continuous distribution according to public demand. Furthermore, as oil tankers are arriving without interruption, we inform the public that there is absolutely no possibility of a fuel shortage in Myanmar."

The association has requested that the public:

Remain calm and avoid worrying about fuel supplies.Purchase only the amount required for personal use.Refrain from wasting time queuing at stations unnecessarily, as there is an ample supply of fuel available.

CNI News

March 5, 2026

Chin State, one of the westernmost states in Myanmar, serves as a vital "Western Gateway," making it a key player in the current Myanmar political landscape, according to U Soe Htet, Chairman of the New Chin State Congress (NCC).

Speaking to CNI News, he stated:

"Our Chin State stretches vertically from north to south and acts as the Western Gateway. Because of this, we share borders with both India and Bangladesh. We also connect with areas controlled by the Arakan Army (AA) in Rakhine State for about 100 miles. We share approximately 46 miles of border with Bangladesh. Paletwa alone shares a 45-mile stretch with India, and the upper regions share many more miles with India. Being the gateway to India, Bangladesh, and Rakhine State makes Chin State a critically important strategic point for Myanmar."

Since 2021, Chin State has emerged as a major stronghold for the Spring Revolution. Military and political analysts point out that the resistance from local defense forces (CDF/CNA) plays a pivotal role in the country's political turning point.

View of Hakha City, Chin State.

The situation in Chin State significantly impacts the nation's overall military and political trajectory. Furthermore, Chin State is seen as indispensable for the success of India's "Act East Policy." Analysts believe that if Chin State remains unstable, Myanmar's Western Gateway will effectively be closed.

On February 5, 2026, Lt. Gen. Gun Maw of the KIA stated that they are prioritizing efforts regarding Chin State. He expressed belief that Chin State's resources could lead to nationwide success and asserted that they are working diligently for the complete liberation of the state.

However, Pu Pu Htan, spokesperson for the Zomi National Party (ZNP), told CNI News that India's interests are heavily tied to Chin State and expressed concern regarding Lt. Gen. Gun Maw's statements.

Myanmar is sandwiched between India and China.

India's security and economic interests rely heavily on Chin State.

Even during WWII, Chin State was a strategic route for military operations.

Pu Pu Htan warned that if the scenario described by Lt. Gen. Gun Maw unfolds, it could pose significant dangers.

The Myanmar-India Ledo Road.

Currently, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) is executing the "Ka Thone Lone" Operation (Kantbalu-Kawlin-Katha) in the Sagaing Region. Lt. Gen. Gun Maw has revealed plans to control both Northern and Lower Myanmar once these areas are secured.

To achieve this, the KIA is providing arms and ammunition to: The Arakan Army (AA), Chin National Front (CNF),Naga armed groups,People's Defense Forces (PDF) within the Sagaing Region.

If the KIA successfully controls the northwestern corridor of Myanmar, it would gain a route from landlocked regions to sea access, potentially allowing for direct diplomatic relations with Western and European nations. This could empower the KIA to pursue military, political, and economic autonomy, or even secession.

Lt. Gen. Gun Maw reminded the public during the Kachin Revolution Day ceremony on February 5, 2026, that during a meeting with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in 2018-2019, he stated they cannot promise not to secede.

CNI News

March 5, 2026

As political dialogues take place in Myanmar between the government, the military, political parties, and ethnic armed organizations, military and political analysts are questioning whether the agreements reached during these sessions should be transparently disclosed to the public.

Since February 1, 2021, the armed conflict in Myanmar has expanded significantly, leading to a proliferation of armed groups. Amidst this political and military turmoil, civilians have been forced to abandon their homes and property, fleeing to safer areas while facing constant life-threatening risks.

Political analyst Dr. An Kaw La told CNI News that political and peace talks must be based on the people's desire and agreements reached between the government organizations and armed groups must be rediscussed among the people.

"It is a fact that the process must ultimately go through the people. The public must be informed of certain data. However, the negotiation style is different. Detailed negotiations must initially follow a top-down approach at the expert level. For instance, ethnic groups have their own intellectuals, experts, and influencers. When the mainland calls for talks, they should speak at that top-level first. Once preliminary agreements are reached, the process should transition into public discussions. There are steps to this.

A Youth Peace Forum in progress.

In my view, experts should talk first to reach a draft agreement, and then bring it to the public to gain support. This is similar to a Law Referendum. If information is disclosed prematurely, it can be problematic because public awareness levels vary. Often, negotiations fail because groups with different levels of understanding intervene and disrupt them. Some people struggle with daily survival and may not have the capacity to process complex messages immediately. This needs to be carefully coordinated."

Military and political observers point out that in Myanmar, peace processes and political talks are traditionally kept secret. When disputes arise between groups, they often resort to mutual accusations of breaking agreements. Analysts argue that instead of dragging the public into conflicts to gain a tactical advantage, the public should be informed to foster a constructive path forward.

U Khun Sai, a participant in the peace process, emphasized to CNI News that disclosing essential details from peace talks to the public is absolutely vital.

A Youth Peace Forum in progress.

"Informing the public is essential. We did this during the NCA (Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement) negotiations. As far as I know, the KNU, RCSS, and SSPP all conducted public consultations. The public shouldn't just be listeners; they should have the opportunity to offer suggestions. However, the authorities in Naypyidaw often viewed these public engagements with suspicion, fearing they were being used for recruitment rather than peace advocacy, which led to interference and blockades. We must work to prevent such patterns from repeating."

Myanmar’s 2025 General Election was held in three phases from December 28, 2025, to January 25, 2026. Following this:

The Third Pyithu Hluttaw (House of Representatives) and Amyotha Hluttaw (House of Nationalities) sessions are scheduled for March 16 and 18, 2026.

A new government is expected to be formed in April 2026.

Analysts suggest that once a civilian government emerges, a new wave of peace negotiations between ethnic armed organizations and the Myanmar military is likely to follow.

CNI News

March 5, 2026

Military and political alysts are raising questions regarding whether the various armed organizations in Myanmar are truly working for the benefit of the public or merely pursuing their own self-interests.

Political analyst U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News that while everyone carrying a weapon claims to be doing so for the people because it sounds good to the ear, it is the civilians who are left to bear the consequences.

"The people are the priority. Everyone carrying a weapon says 'it's for the people' because it’s a pleasant thing to say. However, if they are truly working for the people, one must ask why the public is the only side suffering and mired in endless trouble? They claim to be working for the masses, revolting for the masses, or on the other hand, protecting the masses—yet only the people suffer. This needs a serious rethink. Where there is a problem, there is a solution. The issue is that everyone is busy pointing fingers and blaming each other. If there is a genuine desire for change and a will to make things better, these are not impossible tasks. Because of the weight of this civil war and the abundance of empty promises, no one really believes them anymore. I want to ask those holding guns: give us a reason to believe you, just once. That’s all."

Armed group leaders holding a conference.

Political analysts point out that since the political shifts of 2021, armed conflict has expanded across Myanmar, reaching regions and states that had never experienced fighting before. They argue that attempting to solve armed conflict with more weapons will not yield results for generations to come.

Currently, the impact of the war includes: Over 4 million internally displaced persons (IDPs).

Hundreds of thousands of homes destroyed by fire. Significant numbers of civilian casualties.

U Htet Aung Kyaw further emphasized that open verbal debate about the vision for the country is the best path forward.

A scene from the signing of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA).

"War requires sacrificing lives and money on both sides. Instead of that, it would be best to openly argue with words about what kind of nation we envision. If we can develop the habit of accepting a logical and reasonable argument rather than just insisting on being right, then no matter how much we argue, it’s not a problem. If we debate with the mindset of finding a solution, we can move forward. If one feels that the current actions only result in harming the people, there is no reason to be afraid of debate. We must debate for the sake of the people. If they are brave enough to kill each other with guns, why would they be afraid to argue with words? They must speak."

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has stated that ethnic unity is vital for ending internal armed conflicts and is a major driving force for national development. He urged ethnic brothers to remove suspicions, build trust through negotiation, and work toward achieving eternal peace.

CNI News

4 March 2026

Political analyst U Kyaw Htet told CNI News that it is necessary to enact a law capable of taking action against any organization that violates the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA).

He stated that the agreements within the NCA are not matters to be conducted solely with the Military (Tatmadaw) but with the State. He noted that because there were no provisions on how to penalize violations after signing the NCA, groups have been fluctuating between withdrawing from and participating in the agreement.

"The NCA agreement is not a matter just for the military; it is a matter for the State. If NCA rules are violated, the military must take action on behalf of the State. Currently, we only have the signing of the NCA. I view the reversal [of peace] as happening because there are no specific legal provisions on how to take action if violations occur after signing. Whether it is the government or Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs), there needs to be a law in the country stating that the State will take action against anyone who does not follow the NCA. It can be analyzed that violations are happening easily because these laws do not exist. Furthermore, federal rights need to be granted. There needs to be an 'open-palm' [generous] approach. It needs to be enacted according to the law and by the Parliament. Otherwise, questions arise over who is doing what and which group is being represented, creating a political landscape where conflicts are manufactured as desired," U Kyaw Htet said.

Scene from an NCA anniversary event

During the administration led by U Thein Sein in 2011–2012, bilateral ceasefire agreements were signed at the state and union levels with 14 EAOs. Discussions for the NCA began in 2013, and a draft was reached in August 2015.

Subsequently, the following groups signed the NCA:

October 15, 2015: KNU, RCSS, ALP, DKBA, KNU/KNLA-PC, PNLO, CNF, and ABSDF.

February 13, 2018: NMSP and LDU.

Currently, the KNU, CNF, and ABSDF have withdrawn from the NCA and are engaged in active combat with the Myanmar military.

U Khun Sai, who is involved in the peace process, told CNI News that proceeding with the previous NCA framework will no longer be effective and that the negotiation frameworks need to be revised.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and leaders of armed organizations seen together

"It would be good to have [a law]. Regarding this matter, it’s important to know what constitutes a violation. You can't just blame one side; it can happen on both sides. If penalties are to be imposed, everyone needs to realize that 'it’s not just him who will suffer, but me too.' There are currently two ways to think about this. One is to punish the offender. If they correct their mistakes because of the punishment, that’s good. However, if they respond to punishment by turning back to armed resistance, we must consider in advance how to handle that. If we don't think ahead, instead of solving the problem, it will make it worse. That is the problem with our country," U Khun Sai explained.

He added, "The situation has changed significantly. Back then, there were 21 armed groups nationwide, but now there are hundreds. In a situation where there are hundreds of groups, it is impossible to carry out the NCA according to its original process. This needs to be amended. Primarily, we need to revise the negotiation framework. While the framework isn't directly inside the NCA, it is the framework that arose from it."

In the NCA signed between EAOs and the Myanmar Military-Government-Parliament, there are no specific provisions regarding under what conditions a group has the right to withdraw or is prohibited from doing so.

Furthermore, because there is no mechanism to take action against those who breach the contract, the NCA is often interpreted arbitrarily, leading to mutual accusations of violations and ongoing disputes.

CNI News

March 4, 2026

Ethnic groups told CNI News that it would be better if the State Government prioritized ethnic unity and provided the best support to ethnic armed groups with a magnanimous and "fatherly" attitude.

A Naga ethnic individual stated that because the country is moving toward a federal system, ethnic organizations must be recognized according to their respective states, and the central government can no longer maintain total dominance.

He said, "Taking up arms and revolting is about preserving our own cultural customs and protecting our own territories. That is why they are armed. Ethnic armed groups are not rebels. The Myanmar Military usually refers to them as rebels, but they are not. Since they are organizations protecting their own people, they will continue to exist. Regarding this, I believe it would be better if the State Government acted with a broad-minded, mature, and fatherly spirit toward its own 'children'—the ethnic people and their regions—by developing them, providing the best care, and prioritizing ethnic unity instead of pursuing chauvinism. When the Military tries to keep ethnic armed groups only as People’s Militia or Border Guard Forces, there is no reason for them to accept it. For instance, there must be a Kachin Army, and similarly, there must be a Naga Army. If the Federal Army and State Armies can negotiate and integrate, only then will the federalism Myanmar desires be successful. The current way of 'bundling' everything into a federal label—like giving a child pocket money just to show the world—is unacceptable to me as an ethnic person."

KIA Lieut-Gen Gun Maw seen with the Chin Brotherhood.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing stated that armed conflicts have emerged within the country because attempts were made to solve political problems through violent means rather than political solutions.

Similarly, he said that some Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) are striving to control and govern territories, and are benefiting themselves by illegally extracting and selling natural resources and drugs.

Political analyst Dr. Aung Myo told CNI News that ethnic armed groups should demand the rights they want through peaceful democratic means and that there is no reason to take up arms.

He said, "To be honest, they are using beautiful words for all the rights they want. There is every reason to demand what you want through peaceful democratic methods and political means. There is no reason to be armed. Regarding the concept of being a 'dutiful father,' it doesn't mean just standing by and watching without fighting back. In terms of administration, a country cannot be split into two. Therefore, the way forward is to demand everything they desire through peaceful and political means. Their claims that they must act this way because the government is not 'fatherly' are just a justification. In reality, we cannot accept these words."

Currently, intense fighting is taking place across Myanmar between the Myanmar Military and armed groups.

Leaders of UWSA, SSPP, and NDAA seen with Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.

In these armed conflicts, the KIA is providing arms and ammunition to the Arakan Army (AA), Chin (CNF), Naga armed groups, PDFs, Kuki (KNO), and the Student Army (ABSDF), carrying out "town-seizure" battles in Kachin State, Sagaing Region, and Northern Shan State.

KIA leader Lieut-Gen Gun Maw stated that to ensure the security of KIA territories in Kachin State, they must fight the enemy from Sagaing Region. He mentioned that by implementing the "Ka Thone Lone" operation (Kantbalu-Kawlin-Katha) in Sagaing, they must control the northern and lower regions of Myanmar.

Furthermore, he stated that as ethnic armed groups move past 2025, their considerations will extend beyond federalism.

Currently, the AA expects a "Confederation" level at minimum and will go as far as independence; the TNLA has stated they must prepare to establish a state; and the MNDAA is working to retake and rebuild its Special Region.

Some Karen armed groups have announced the establishment of "Kawthoolei State," while the UWSA has established a separate administrative system, building self-rule and self-determination.

Naga armed groups also aim to unite Naga people from both Myanmar and India to establish a "Free Naga Federation" or a "Naga Nation."

CNI News

March 3, 2026

The Information Team of the National Defense and Security Council (NDSC) issued an announcement today (March 3) stating that, starting from March 7, private vehicles must follow an odd-even license plate system based on the date to conserve fuel.

The report notes that due to current global political situations and military conflicts in the Middle East, there are barriers and blockades along the maritime routes used by fuel tankers. Consequently, to ensure fuel sufficiency and conservation, private vehicles, commercial vehicles, and transport vehicles must adhere to specific regulations starting March 7, 2026.

Under these rules, only private vehicles with license plates matching the date of the month may be driven:

Even Days: Vehicles with "Even" plate letters (e.g., 2A/----, 4A/----). Odd Days: Vehicles with "Odd" plate letters (e.g., 1A/----, 3A/----).

The following vehicles are exempt from these restrictions and may be driven daily: Electric Vehicles (EVs): Both EV cars and EV motorcycles.

Public Services: Public transport buses, Taxis, fuel tankers, construction vehicles, and freight trucks.

Emergency & Utility: Ambulances, funeral hearses, and municipal garbage trucks.

The announcement also warns fuel entrepreneurs and the general public strictly against hoarding fuel or price gouging.

These regulations will remain in effect until further notice. Authorities stated that anyone found violating these rules will face legal action in accordance with existing laws.