CNI News

13 August 2025

As regions where rare earth can be produced are politically a trump card for the Kachin Independence Army, it would not back down easily, military and political analysts told CNI News. 

Almost all the places where rare earth that can be extracted within Kachin State have been controlled by the KIA. 

Since rare earth is several billion dollars worth, the Myanmar Tatmadaw could launch military operations to regain control of those places, they considered.

So, battles could be severely take place between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the KIA in the regions where rare earth can be extracted, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a Myanmar-China affairs analyst, told CNI News.

"Panwa and Kan Pite Tee where lots of rare earth are located are very close to the Chinese border. So, it's not easy for the Myanmar Tatmadaw to use heavy weapons or drop bombs. China warned that it won't tolerate heavy weapons or bombs being dropped on its side. These things are a trump card of the KIA, so it won't retreat easily, I think. The Myanmar Tatmadaw will fight tooth and nail to regain control of these regions. Fierce battles could break out there." she said.

Rare earth elements are essential for the production of smartphones, electric cars, weapons systems, fighter jets, and high-tech products around the world. 

While some rare earth elements were being carried

The KIA has seized rare earth mineral-producing areas in Kachin State, including the Panwa region, which has nearly 300 rare earth blocks. 

The top three countries producing rare earth elements in the world are China, the United States, and Myanmar. In 2024, China accounted for nearly 70 percent of the world's production, the United States for more than 11 percent, and Myanmar for nearly 8 percent, according to a report by Statista, a New York-based organization in the United States, in February 2025.

Since rare earth elements belong to the state, there should be negotiations over their distribution, the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP) Chairman Sai Htay Aung told CNI News.

" Rare earth elements are produced around Momauk. The Myanmar Tatmadaw can try to recapture this region because it is owned by the state. The mineral belong to the whole country. Negotiations are needed for resource sharing." he said.

Myanmar's rare earth exports to China reached 4,200 tons in September 2024. However, during the three months - October, November and December that year when battles were breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the KIA in Chipwe and Panwa, more than 3,300 tons of rare earth element only could be exported, reported local media.

While extracting rare earth elements and seeing an armed group

Additionally, Reuters reported a few days ago that the administration of US President Donald Trump was likely to hold talks with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) over purchasing rare earth elements from Myanmar. The United States was seeking to get Myanmar's rare earth minerals which were entering China, four sources told Reuters.

Therefore, domestic and foreign military and political analysts are questioning whether a competition between China and the United States over rare earth elements could arise. 

The incident was a political balancing act by the KIA to prevent further Chinese pressure on it, Colonel Khun Okkar, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), which signed the NCA, told CNI News.   
 
" In my opinion, among the armed groups in Myanmar, the KIA is close to the US. The US also approaches. Among the EAOs, the KIA only approaches the US. Rather than whether the US purchases the rare earth elements from the KIA or not, the KIA tries to make contact with the US by reason of the rare earth elements. China put pressure on the KIA as well. The KIA seems to use a system of checks and balances. It means that it makes contact with the US. It's a political balancing, I think." he said.

One of the proposals put forward to the Trump administration is to encourage the Myanmar Tatmadaw to hold peace talks with the KIA, while another is for the United States to negotiate directly with the KIA. 

Global Witness reported in May 2024 that illegal exports of rare earth elements generated $1.4 billion in revenue over the three years following the political change.

Almost all the rare earth elements illegally exported reportedly was from Panwa and the Kachin Special Region (1).

CNI News

13 August 2025

If the Myanmar Tatmadaw discussed with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in Myitkyina, Kachin State, the KIA would accept to do so, said Lt-Gen Gun Maw of the KIA/KIO. Lieutenant General Gun Maw responded to the BBC's question as above

"The KIO's attitude is not to hold online discussions. If the Myanmar Tatmadaw has a real desire to discuss in Myitkyina, the KIO will send a delegation to Myitkyina in order to discuss there, which the KIO replied. But the KIO has not received any reply." he said.

The KIA made contct with the Myanmar Tatmadaw through the Peace-talk Creation Group (PCG), a Kachin-based organization in Myanmar that facilitates dialogue and negotiations between the Myanmar government, the Myanmar Tatmadaw, and the Kachin Independence Army.

But the Myanmar Tatmadaw replied to the KIA that it would discuss later because the battles were severely taking place in Bhamo, sources close to Naypyidaw told CNI News.

 “The KIO did not initiate the offer. It was a message from Nay Pyi Taw to the PCG (Peace-talk Creation Group) after the peace talks held in Naypyidaw last year.” said Lieutenant General Gun Maw.

He said that the Myanmar Tatmadaw asked the KIA regarding peace talks again through the PCG last month and the KIO replied that its position remained the same as before.

The KIA sent the PCG to Naypyidaw and said through the PCG that it wanted to meet and discuss at the peace talks held in Naypyidaw, but the Myanmar Tatmadaw responded that since the Bhamo Battle was ongoing, if the KIA wanted to discuss, the two sides would start discussing through online and then discuss in person after building mutual trust, according to those close to Naypyidaw.

Currently, battles are severely breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the KIA in and around Bhamo City. 

The KIA is providing weapons and ammunition to other armed groups fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw, and in collaboration with them, the KIA is fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw in Sagaing and Magway Regions.

CNI News

12 August 2025

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Eastern Naga Nationalities Defense Army (ENDA) collaborate and are arresting Naga youths, announced the Naga Students Organization (NSO) on August 8, 2025. 

In collaboration with the ENDA, the KIA was arrested at least 30 Naga youths on the way to hill-side cultivation areas and timber extracting places, stated the NSO on July 27 and on July 30, 2025.

The Naga Students' Organization (NSO) has expressed its deep disappointment over the violence perpetrated against the Naga people by the KIA and ENDA groups.

CNI News

12 August 2025

There are trade difficulties and delays in goods in Myanmar due to conflicts on border and domestic trade routes, excessive gate fees, and the presence of numerous armed groups. 
Trucks mainly import consumer goods from neighboring Thailand, using the Myawaddy-Htok Kaw Ko-Nabu-Hpa-An section of the road, also known as the old Dawna Taung Road.

The significant drop in Thai goods flow is due to difficult transportation and the large number of checkpoints, an official from the department of unloading and loading goods of the Myawaddy Township Trade Zone told CNI News.

“First, due to the checks and arrests at the Mayangyaung border gate, most import and export businesses have seen a 30 percent drop in official goods flow compared to the previous month. Thai goods flow, which used to be full, will now only be 30 percent. Where there is a 30 percent flow, only businesses that carry duty will be able to flow. From what I know from agents, while previously 100 trucks could go through, now only 30 can. For freight workers, this month is a month of low income. Due to the closure of the Asia Road, the traffic conditions on the old Daun Taung Road, Htok Kaw Koe Road, and Kyet Oo Taung Road are not as bad as last year, but this year there is less trade flow. The dirt and gravel roads are causing traffic accidents, the area is unstable and there are frequent and intense battles, which are causing harm to traders, and the people are facing food shortages due to rising commodity prices," he said.

While the TNLA was inspecting trucks

The old Dawna Taung Road is a single-lane dirt road that is used for one day uphill and one day downhill, and travelers say that various armed groups are demanding tolls on the road. 

“The number of our trucks on the road has decreased by half compared to before, and the number of 6-wheeled vehicles has decreased by half compared to before. I think we pay duty on imported animals and pigs. There are many imported vehicles. There are many gates on the mountain road. There are many KNLA groups on the old road. If you go beyond the Nabu road, there are many KNU and KNLA Peace Council groups.” U Aung Kyaw Oo, chairman of the Prahita Alinthit Association, told CNI News.

Thai consumer goods are widely used in Myanmar, and local people in Mon and Kayin States rely on the flow of Thai goods for their business. 

Similarly, Myanmar is importing electrical appliances, consumer goods, and construction materials , including medicines from China, but trade has been halted due to ongoing fighting along the China-Myanmar border trade route and armed groups controlling the route and demanding money.

The flow of illegal Thai goods has decreased significantly due to inspections at the Mayangyaung border gate, and the number of legal goods from Thailand has also decreased by half, an online shop owner told CNI News. 

While the police were checking cars

Similarly, the flow of goods between regions and states in Myanmar has been reduced and trade is becoming increasingly difficult due to the Myanmar Tatmadaw and various armed groups opening gates on trade routes, conducting frequent inspections, demanding money, and imposing restrictions.

"Trucks depend on custom duties. They can  go and return within a day. There are KNLA gates on the old road and there are BGF, DKBA and KNU gates on the Htaw Koh Kaw road, a total of about 10 gates. The Kyet Oo Taung section of the road has been fully controlled by the DKBA. A passenger has to pay 100,00 or 150,000 kyats. Trucks and cars have to queue to be checked and if they start leaving at 06:00 a.m., they reach the destination about 02:00 p.m." said a driver of a bus going on the Myawaddy-Hpa-an Road to CNI News.

Myanmar depend on China and Thailand in importing consumer goods, foodstuffs, construction materials, electric products and medicines. Currently, the Myawaddy-Kawkareik Asia Road, a Thailand-Myanmar border trade route cannot used due to battles. 

Moreover, Kyekhaung-Muse-Lashio-Mandalay Road, a China-Myanmar border trade route

cannot be used as well due to battles.

CNI News

12 August 2025

Military and political analysts are questioning whether the elections scheduled for later this year in Myanmar could be worse than those held in 1951-52. 

The Union Election Commission (UEC) has announced that elections will be held in 267 townships in Myanmar between December 2025 and January 2026.  

He couldn't say whether the upcoming election will be worse than the 1951-52 election, Sai Htay Aung, chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News.

“This election is a big challenge that we have to overcome. Because given the current security situation, the upcoming election could be even worse than the 1951-52 election, that I can't say. However, we must work hard for the interests of the country and the people. The law to protect the election has been issued, and it is necessary for the people to comply with it. In my opinion, the situation is not yet where the public can vote peacefully. The government should also make a promise to the people about what it will do after the election," he said.

While seeing the Parliament in 1951-52

The People's Defense Forces (PDF), the National Unity Government (NUG), the National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC), and the Spring Revolution forces have announced that they will completely sabotage the elections planned by the Union Election Commission (UEC). 

Then, political parties and candidates who will run the election begin to face security threats and difficulties.

Meanwhile, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing enacted the Law on the Protection of Multi-Party Democratic General Elections from Disruption and Sabotage on July 29, 2025.

The law stipulates that anyone who commits any crime, such as disrupting, destroying, or causing death, can be sentenced to a minimum of 10 years in prison and a maximum of life in prison, or even the death penalty. 

Due to the current instability in Myanmar, the impact of the civil war, and the emergency period, citizens are no longer able to exercise their basic rights as stipulated in Chapter 8 of the Constitution. Dr. Aye Maung, chairman of the Arakan National Front (AFP), told CNI News.

 An armed group

"The tuition in 1951 is different from the current one, including the nature of voters. These days, the influence of social media. A piece of news goes viral very fast.  How many people want to get back to the situation five years ago? These things will influence the upcoming elections. 80 percent of the people believe that they need a change through an election." he said.

Armed conflicts are severely taking place across the country and revolutionary elements have said that they will sabotage the election and take action against those who participate in the election. So, the people are worried about their security in voting.

The Burma Communist Party, Yebaw Byu, Yebaw Ni, the Pyithu's Yebaw and Karen armed groups launched armed resistance three months after Myanmar gained her independence. And then, in 1949, the government led by U Nu was able to govern in and around Yangon. So, it was called the Yangon Government.

So, the first election that was held in Myanmar had to be held in phases from June 1951 to February 1952 due to weak security and territorial instability.

CNI News

11 August 2025

After elections were held, because there were not necessary number of representatives, if the second session of Hluttaw was called, current rulers of the country may lose their dignity, Chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), Sai Htay Aung told CNI News. 

Therefore, he said, those currently ruling the country would have to try to meet the necessary number of candidates in the upcoming election.

“In the current political situation, in my opinion, they will try to meet the necessary number of candidates in the upcoming election.. Only when there are enough representatives, the Hluttaw can be called. If the Hluttaw was to be called for the second time, current rulers of the country may lose their dignity. So, they will try to meet the necessary number of candidates, I think. According to the constitution, the Tatmadaw has taken 25 percent of all the seats in the Hluttaw. If more than half of the representatives attend, it will have a quorum. Elections must be held for more than half of the representatives. I think they can do that. Because they have announced that they will hold elections in the 267 townships, it is more than half." said Sai Htay Aung.

The first meeting of the Pyidaungzu Hluttaw after the election must have 664 representatives, but under the 2008 Constitution, a quorum is reached if more than half of the representatives attend.

For the first Hluttaw session to be held, 50 percent of the representatives are required, and 25 percent of the representatives are military personnel. If the remaining 25 percent of the representatives are present, it will reach a quorum and the Hluttaw can be held.

While the number of candidates is being shown

The election to be held by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing is just nominal, and since 25 percent of the representatives are military members, the Hluttaw can be held by any means, U Khun Sai, who is involved in the peace process, told CNI News.

“The election is nominal. Because when the Hluttaw convenes for the first time, more than half of the Hluttaw members must be present. If less than over half, a second meeting must be called. In the second meeting,  If 1/3 of the members are present, it reaches a quorum. Currently, 25 percent of the members are from the military, so, only 8 percent of the civilian Hluttaw members is just needed to reach a quorum. So, Hluttaw can be called by any means. There is criticism that a quorum could have been automatically established to convene the Hluttaw even though there was no election," he said.

In Myanmar, on February 1, 2021, the National League for Democracy (NLD) government was ousted by the Myanmar Tatmadaw and a state of emergency was declared, claiming that the NLD was attempting to form a government without resolving the 2020 general election voter list dispute.

Then, the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw, the Amyotha Hluttaw, and the Pyithu Hluttaw were unable to convene and have remained suspended to this day.

CNI News

11 August 2025

If the people vote in the election that is being planned to be held, it will be a form of democracy and if the people don't vote, they will lose their opportunities, Chairman of the Shan and Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP), Sai Ai Pao told CNI News. 

The Union Election Commission (UEC) has announced that elections will be held in 267 townships in Myanmar between December 2025 and January 2026.

After the election, a civilian government will emerge and the form of a democratic federal system will be established, and if people do not vote, they will lose their rights, said Sai Ai Pao.

“Once the election is over, a civilian government will emerge. It will no longer be a military government. At that time, the Amyotha Hluttawt, the Pyithu Hluttaw, the Regional Hluttaw, and the State Hluttaw will emerge. Then, the Union Government, the Regional Government, and the State Government will emerge. At that time, it will no longer be a military government. The military will hold the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Border Affairs, and the Ministry of Home Affairs. All other ministries will be held by civilians. I would like to appeal to the public: Vote for the party of your choice so that the country will become a federal democratic form. A civilian government will emerge. If you don't vote, you will lose your right. I want urge the people to vote. A company in Yangon Region conducted a poll among 1,000 people. Out of them, 700 people said that they would vote because they want a change." he said.

While the UEC was explaining the voting machine to political parties

Political parties have pointed out that an election is needed to separate the three pillars in Myanmar - the legislative, judicial, and executive branches, from being controlled by a single person. Political parties are worried that the people won't vote.

When assessing the public regarding the election, if you divide it into three categories based on the age at which they can vote, there may be elements that want to change something, Dr. Aye Maung, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), told CNI News.

“When assessing the public, the young people will have one kind of will. The middle-aged people will have another. The elderly will be different. This is different everywhere. If you divide the population into three groups based on the age group that can vote, young people may have big goals for the future. Middle-aged people may want to overcome difficulties. Many older people may already be thinking about how to solve these difficulties. About 70 percent of voters are neutral. They may be white or black and yellow or green or red. About 30 percent might not be neutral. Moreover, businessmen may want an economical change." he said.

Elections mean that you must own the government that you elected and you must vote carefully to ensure that the government that you elected will work for the benefit of the people and the country and that is free from corruption, pointed out military and political analysts.

CNI News

11 August 2025

There are considerations among military and political analysts whether military situation could be more widespread from the battles breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in and around Bhamo City. 

After the Myanmar Tatmadaw's warships went up to Bhamo from Mandalay on August 1, 2025, the Myanmar Tatmadaw has been waging offensives to some military camps that had been captured by the KIA, and battles are severely taking place between the two sides.

Moreover, the Myanmar Tatmadaw is waging offensives to Minhla Ward near the 21 Military Operations Command, and No. 366 Artillery Battalion that has been captured by the KIA on August 4, 2025. 

According to the situation of ground battles, the Myanmar Tatmadaw possibly would expand its military activities not only in Bhamo but also in the neighboring towns, the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP) Chairman Sai Htay Aung told CNI News.

While seeing Bhamo City that has been damaged by the war

" The Myanmar Tatmadaw seems to expand its military activities not only in Bhamo until neighboring areas. I must say the Myanmar Tatmadaw has an upper hand in the Bhamo region military situation. Since a few days ago, the Myanmar Tatmadaw has been conducting a clearance operation surrounding area of the university in Bhamo, aNnd Minhla Ward near the No. 21 Military Operations Command and Min Kyaung Gon Ward near the prison. So, we can say that the Myanmar Tatmadaw has had an upper hand there." he said.

Bhamo is one of the nearest towns to Laiza where the headquarters of the KIA is based and the No-21 Military Operations Command of the Myanmar Tatmadaw is based in Bhamo as well. 

Moreover, it is located on the bank of Ayeyarwady River and about 40 miles away from the Chinese border. People can go to China from Bhamo through Nam Kham and Muse in northern Shan State.

Currently, because of the Myanmar Tatmadaw's offensive en masse to Bhamo, the KIA is facing a difficult situation to re-launch an offensive, pointed out military and political analysts. 

The KIA possibly would give Bhamaw to the Myanmar Tatmadaw because battles in and around Bhamo have been months long, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, China-Myanmar affairs analyst told CNI News.

While seeing Bhamo City that is a strategic position

" It seems that the KIA might give Bhamo back to the Myanmar Tatmadaw because the entire city of Bhamo is already in ruins. The Myanmar Tatmadaw fire heavy weapons and dropped bombs on Bhamo. So I think the Tatmadaw wants to propaganize that they have regained control of Bhamo. The KIA possibly will retreat from Bhamo." she said.

Since October 2023, the KIA was able to successfully attack and capture the Myanmar Tatmadaw bases in Kachin State and northern Shan State and captured Sok Law, Chipwe, Somprabum, Injang Yang, Sadon, Dok Phong Yang, Loije, Sin Bo, Myo Hla, Momauk, Mansi, and Mabein in northern Shan State. 

Currently, the National Defense and Security Council has declared a state of emergency and initiated martial law in a total of 63 townships in Kachin, Kayah, Sagaing, Rakhine, and Shan states, as well as other regions.

Fighting is ongoing in these townships between TNLA, AA, KNU, KIA, CNF, PDF, and the Myanmar Tatmadaw. Currently, the Myanmar Tatmadaw is conducting offensives against TNLA-controlled Mogok, Kyaukme, and Hsipaw, as well as exchanging offensives with the KIA in Bhamo. 

Similarly, the Myanmar military has been engaged in a long-running conflict with the AA in Kyaukphyu, Rakhine State.

CNI News

11 August 2025

Candidates who will run in the election should be parliamentarians who represent the people rather than the party, U Li Paw Reh, chairman of the Lisu National Development Party (Dulei Party), told CNI News. 

In Myanmar politics, when more candidates who won in the election represent their parties rather than the people, pointed out political commentators.

Candidates who ran the election, when they were in Hluttaw, must give priority to the country and the people rather than their parties, the Lisu National Development Party (Dulei Party) Chairman, U Li Paw Reh told CNI News.  

" When a candidate becomes a member of Hluttaw, he will support only the proposal which his party submits, which should not be done like that. He should support any proposal that benefits the country, that is submitted by any party. He should not represent his party anymore. He should represent the people." he said.

Political parties

Candidates that will enter the Hluttaw compete representing their parties and they are party representatives. 

However, after they are elected, when they arrive in the Hluttaw, they have been the representatives representing both parties and the people, pointed out political analysts.

Participants in Myanmar politics often have a tendency to bear a grudge, and some parliamentarians have this tendency, pointed out political analysts.

Once the candidates are elected and enter the parliament, they become lawmakers, the Naga National Party (NNP) Chairman U Shu Maung told CNI News.

Some parties do not discuss proposals submitted by other parties and it may be because of their parties' policies, he said.

Political parties

“As elected representatives are persons with legislative power, they have to consider the interests of their constituencies, and on the other hand, they are responsible for the development, political issues, and international affairs. As he represents the people, they must be the public representatives. But as the centralization system of some parties is so strong, a proposal submitted by another party may benefit the country and might not be discussed by the parties whose centralization are strong. These parties might be ethnic parties or mainland parties." he said.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has promised elections will be held in December 2025 and January 2026 in Myanmar and the elections will be held in phases, according to the Union Election Commission.