CNI News
16 May 2025
Military and political analysts are currently analyzing what the military and political situation in the northern, southern, and western regions of Myanmar, where armed conflicts are occurring, might be like in 2025.
there could be negotiations regarding the northern region and a similar pattern could emerge in the southern and western regions, the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S) Chairman Colonel Khun Okkar told CNI News, adding that he believed that the military and political situation would depend on the situation in the six months before the election.
“I think this year is a mix of good and bad. The northern groups, including the KIA, will negotiate and the locals will be a little more relaxed. When that happens, the south may become a little more tense. In the western Rakhine and Chin, there may be a different pattern. So it could be half good, half bad. That also depends on the SAC, which currently dominates the central region. The SAC leaders still have 6 to 7 months before the election to find a way in order to overcome the conflict. The political situation that will develop in the meantime will be decisive, I think." he said.
An armed group
Fierce battles are ongoing in Myanmar between EAOs/PDF and the Myanmar Tatmadaw. The AA-TNLA-MNDAA jointly launched Operation 1027 in northern Shan State on October 27, 2023, capturing almost the entire northern region of Shan State and the Northeast Command.
However, after talks between the MNDAA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw, the MNDAA had to hand over Lashio in northern Shan State to the Myanmar Tatmadaw.
On the other hand, the KIA is engaging in battles for control of towns in Kachin State and Sagaing Region in collaboration with the PDF.
Similarly, the AA has controlled 14 out of 17 townships in Rakhine State, including Paletwa town, Chin State, and is also fighting against the Myanmar military, in collaboration with local armed groups in Ayeyarwady, Magway, and Sagaing regions.
China can continue to implement the ceasefire as per its strategy, so the military and political situation depends on the ability of the revolutionary forces to act, China-Myanmar affairs analyst Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw told CNI News.
While seeing the TNLA
"This depends on how much the revolutionary forces can do. It depends on how much the revolutionary forces can do. China will continue its ceasefire strategy. China has greatly assisted the development of the “Wa” region and Mong La because they are close to its country. In this way, China wants to show that if efforts can be made to make the country develop peacefully, any region can develop. We already know that the military council must be eliminated." she said.
China is trying to mediate and negotiate peace between the KIA-AA-TNLA-MNDAA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw, and the Myanmar Tatmadaw will meet with the TNLA again in August. There are also speculations that if talks with the TNLA are successful, talks with the KIA could be prioritized instead of the AA.
