CNI News

17 January 2025

The State Administration Council would hold a free and fair general election without fail, said chairman of the SAC Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

He said the above in his written speech sent to the 73rd anniversary celebration of Kayah State Day which fell on 15th January 2025. 

" The government must continue to move towards a genuine and disciplined multi-party democracy, which is the will of the people. In order to be able to do so, necessary preparations are being made so that a free and fair multi-party democratic election. A free and fair general elections that reflect the true will of the voter people will be held without fail." said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

The election would be held in 2025 and the State power would be handed over to the winning party, he had said. However, the exact date on which it will be held has not yet been announced. 

While the meeting of the National Defense and Security Council was being held

The SAC could stop its tenure for the state of emergency in May and the election could be held in between September and November after which the transfer of power could be conducted in 2026, considered diplomatic circles.

Because armed groups are trying to overthrow the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the SAC, battles are severely breaking out across the country and there are over three million IDPs. 

The battles emerged after the Myanmar Tatmadaw took power on 1st February 2021, saying the NLD government tried to form a government without solving the vote list dispute in the 2020 general election.

The National Unity Government (NUG), the National Unity Consultant Council (NUCC), the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH) and the People's Defense Force (PDF) that contain some NLD leaders and members of the Hluttaw, the KIA, the KNPP, the KNU, and the CNF and some EAOs are trying to overthrow the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the SAC.

While seeing the Mandalay PDF

"The current unrest and violence in the country are because those who claim to be struggling for democracy attempted to seize state power unjustly through vote fraud and chose the path of armed violence. Some foreign countries that claim to be practicing and protecting democracy are directly or indirectly encouraging armed terrorist attacks which are against the democratic system." said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

Diplomats at home and abroad are considering holding the election as soon as possible for the ability to stop battles taking place throughout the country and overcome the political crisis.

Although the SAC said that it would hold the election in August 2023, it renewed its tenure for the state of emergency every six months until January 2025, saying because it was not a normal situation.

Renewal of six months for the state of emergency will expire on 31st January 2025 and whether the SAC will extend another six month or not will be watched, said military and political analysts.

CNI News

17 January 2025

Leaders from Karen State Border Guard Force and the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA) and Chinese businessmen held an emergency meeting to tackle online fraud (Zha Pian) in Karen State on 15th January 2025.

How to tackle online fraud, human trafficking and cross-border crimes was discussed in the meeting. In the same way, the meeting also set rules and regulations that business owners who want to invest in Myawaddy Township must follow. 

The rules and regulations contain preventing, forced labor, child labor, human trafficking, and torture. Moreover, fraudulent activities and online fraud activities, if they are found, must be reported.

If these rules and regulations are not followed, business closures and deportations will be carried out. Secretary of the Karen State BGF, Brig-Gen Saw Chit Thu and Brig-Gen Saw San Aung from the DKBA as well as several commanders and Chinese business people attended the meeting.

There are online fraudsters in Shwe Kokko Town, Myawaddy District that is controlled by the BGF and they even trafficked Chinese artists. 

Moreover, online fraudsters even tried to cheat her and she had directed her government to tackle the town where online fraudsters were staying, said Thai PM Paetongtarn on 15th January.

CNI News

16 January 2024

Instead of fighting on the source of power, waging battles on the edge of power could cause unnecessary losses for the country, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News. 

The military operations would be launched in the Bagan-Nyaung U region, Mandalay Region in 2025, announced the Nyaung U PDF on 8th January 2025.

In the same way, Upper Minhla Township PDF warned on 10th January 2025 not to use village roads connecting with the Pathein-Monywa Road. 

Moreover, Battles are severely breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the AA/CDF-Asho joint forces among three villages - Gaotkyi, Suntet and Lintel villages that are located in the Yoma valley on the Ann-Padan Road, Nagphel Township, Magway Region. 

While seeing the TNLA

If armed conflicts were scattering in rural villages, locals and villages would be damaged, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

" Because fighting on the edge of power can cause all-round losses for the country instead of fighting on the source of power, local people or indigenous races and their villages are damaged. Being damaged for long like this is not proper. The idea of forming a coalition of revolutionary forces is what everyone is talking about. Before it can be done, armed conflicts are spreading in rural villages, which is hurting local people." said Col. Khun Okkar.

Because military activities would be increased during 2025 by revolutionary forces, the people should abide by the safety measures, warned chairman of the PSLF/TNLA, General Tar Aik Bong.

Because PDFs had no central control, they were fighting where they wanted to and those who govern must manage to prevent the people from taking up arms and fighting, U Kyi Myint, a political commentator, told CNI News.

While the meeting of the National Defense and Security Council was being held

Because it was necessary to change military results into political ones, discussions were needed. Only if military and politics were in balance, would it be convenient, considered military and political analysts. 

Battles are severely breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and armed groups across Myanmar. 

Due to these battles, the Myanmar Tatmadaw has lost control of several hundred military camps including the Northeast Command and the West Command as well as over 90 townships. 

However, revolutionary armed groups have not been able to put pressure on Naypyidaw.

CNI News

16 January 2025

The political path might be given priority after 31st January when the SAC's six month tenure of the state of emergency will expire, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

Because what would happen to political situation when the SAC renews the tenure has not been known yet, it was necessary to watch the political situation what would arise after 3st January, he said.

" It's necessary to watch the political situation that will arise when the tenure of the SAC expires. Because it's anybody's guess what will happen to the political situation after another six months extension, we have to consider whether to increase military or political activities. In any case, political path will be given priority, I think. Because the military activities reached at peak, it's necessary to promote the political path, which everyone has considered. When the political path is given priority, if armed elements win their political goals through political means, battles might be suspended." said Col. Khun Okkar.

The SAC will have taken the State power for four years on 31st January 2025 after overthrowing the NLD government on 1st February 2021. 

The SAC has renewed  its tenure six times within four years. As the has repeatedly said that it will hold the election, the SAC might extend the state of emergency for another six months, said military and political analysts. 

There were widespread armed conflicts across the country in 2024 and the Myanmar Tatmadaw has lost control of several hundred military camps including the Northeast Command and the West Command as well as over 90 townships.

While Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing was meeting with political parties

So, when the SAC renews for another six months, it might promote the military activities and hold the election, considered military and political analysts.

The SAC would renew for another six months and continue to do what it would have to, spokesperson of the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA), U Myo Kyaw told CNI News.

" I have known the SAC will renew its tenure. It will continue to do what it has to. The SAC has been doing what it wants to since 2021. The SAC hasn't held any constructive talks." he said.

On the one hand, as EAOs and revolutionary forces have announced that they would launch more battles in 2025, more and more military conflict could increase than 2024,  said some people.

After renewing its tenure, the SAC could announce in May, 2025 when the election will be held and the election could have been held. And then, there might be plans to hand over the State power to the winning party in April 2026, considered diplomatic circles.

CNI News

16 January 2025

The 7 EAO Alliance held a meeting and discussed there to make political dialogues arise and the meeting was held on 14th January 2025. 

The matters regarding the preparation to act in accordance with the political situation that may arise in 2025 and making political dialogues that contain all stakeholders arise were discussed in the meeting.

Moreover, the matters relating to the implementation of peace process and the promotion of the coordination and cooperation among EAOs as well as the expansion of the local political framework were discussed as well.

The 7 EAO Alliance is made up of seven NCA signatories - the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), the New Mon State Party (NMSP), the Lahu Democratic Union, the Arakan Liberation Party (ALP), the Karen National Union/the Karen National Liberation Army- Peace Council (KNU/KNLA-PC), the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA) and the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO).

CNI News

16 January 2025

Locals were worried that battles would break out in the Bagan region after the announcement by Nyaung U Township PDF that it would wage battles in the Bagan-Nyaung U region, Mandalay Region, which is a World Cultural Heritage Site, because they have to live on tourists, locals told CNI News.

Nyaung U PDF (Bagan Ogre Force) announced on 8th January 2025 that it would wage battles in the Bagan-Nyaung U region, Mandalay Region.

Locals have to be living on tourists who visit Bagan pagodas, they don't want that battles will take place in the Bagna-Nyaung U region, a local said CNI News.

" We, locals, have to live on tourists who visit the pagodas here. We don't want battles will take place in this region because it's an ancient heritage site. Shop owners and children here earn income only when tourists and pilgrims come here. There are almost no other businesses here. If any ancient heritage is damaged, the whole world will know it. It goes without saying that consequences will be very bad if battles break out here." he said.

It would carry out military operations so as not to damage ancient pagodas and cultural heritages and the main military targets would be attacked by well-trained fighters, said the Nyaung U PDF. 

The operation would be carried out in cooperation with the ally forces from Myingyan, Taungtha, Natogyi, Kyaukpadaung and Chauk Townships, said the PDF. 

If battles were waged, the pagodas and temples would be damaged and battles should not be waged there, pointed out Col. Khun Okkar, an EAO leader.

If battles were launched in the Bagan-Nyaung U region, ancient pagodas and all tourism services in the Bagan region could be affected, U Zwe Htet,a Bagan travel service operator told CNI News.

" If battles break out here in Bagan, it won't be convenient for us because we live on tourists. If battles break out, ancient pagodas can be affected because of fire arms or heavy weapons. All the tourism services could be affected. Lacquerware, hotel and E-bike rental businesses all will be affected." he said.

As soon as battles started, ancient pagodas could be totally damaged and irreplaceable losses could arise; both organizations should not wars that cause a lot of losses and should find an answer to make peace, pointed out tourism entrepreneurs. 

43 percent of Myanmar's population are experiencing conflicts due to armed conflicts and nearly 20 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance in 2025, announced the UNOCHA.

CNI News

15 January 2025

Military and political analysts are considering differently regarding whether military conflicts will become more widespread in 2025. 

Some people have considered that military conflict could be more widespread in 2025 than in 2024, when military intensity peaked while others considered that if political demands can be met through political means, a change could occur in 2025, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.

" On the one hand, there are encouragements to hold political dialogues, but battles will be taking place fiercely, I think. They will get worse because they have presumed that it is the final battle." said U Than Soe Naing.

While seeing leaders from the AA, the MNDAA and the TNLA

Revolutionary groups would speed up military activities in the plain region and its adjacent areas, said chairman of the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) General Tar Aik Bong in his commemorative speech to mark the 62nd anniversary of the Ta'ang National Revolution Day that fell on 12th January 2025.

If a way was searched for political change such as election, battles might suspend for a while and if political needs were guaranteed through political means, a change could emerge, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

" If The result emerges from the election that is free and fair or if the elected government could guarantee to meet the demand of the organizations fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw, battles can decline for a while. Because of a war, everyone is in trouble. A political change will occur to take a rest, I think. Leaders who have the upper hand in the military have said military rhetoric. But political need is the main. Political need can be guaranteed by political means. If the political guarantee is won, a change can emerge." said Col. Khun Okkar.

While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and political parties

The current crisis was political. So, only if it was solved through political discussion, could the path of least harm be chosen for the people, spokesperson of the 7 EAOs Alliance, Col. Saw Kyaw Nyunt told CNI News.

" If you believe that military activities can expand more in 2025, it's hard to say that you are absolutely wrong because the public has experienced over three years of efforts to change a system. There are different opinions which are unavoidable. War is also a continuation of politics. Political efforts failed, so we had to resort to military means. Military framework becomes wider while the political framework goes narrower." said Col. Saw Kyaw Nyunt.

Because neighboring countries want holding the election, they would not accept that battles would be taking place severely, considered military and political analysts.

The SAC has announced that it would meet and discuss politically and so have EAOs, but any discussion has not been seen except for the discussion between the MNDAA and the SAC.

CNI News

15 January 2025

Revolutionary organizations would speed up military activities in the plain region and adjacent areas in 2025, chairman of the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) General Tar Aik Bong.

He said the above on the 62nd anniversary of the Ta'ang National Revolution Day on 12th January 2025.

"The united revolutionary organizations will further accelerate the revolution in the plain region and adjacent areas in 2025 and during the period when the battles are severely breaking out, the people should carefully abide by the safety measures laid down by revolutionary organizations and may the people be safe and see the fruits of the revolution's success." said General Tar Aik Bong.

While seeing the TNLA-controlled townships

The revolution is gaining momentum and revolutionary forces must continue to maintain unity and demolish the remaining pillars of the common enemy, he said.

The TNLA, the MNDAA and the AA were making preparations to launch military operations in Sagaing, Mandalay and Magway Regions by providing weapons, ammunition and military training courses to the Spring Revolution forces, said miliary and political analysts.

Leader of the AA Maj-Gen Tun Myat Naing had said that battles would reach the upcountry region in 2025. Revolutionary forces are speeding up military activities in the upcountry region - Sagaing, Mandalay and Magway Regions and battles are often taking place between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and revolutionary forces.

While seeing the AA-controlled townships

In cooperation with Spring Revolution forces, the TNLA, the MNDAA and the AA waged Operation-1027 on 27th October 2023 in northern Shan State and fought against the Myanmar Tatmadaw.

During the operation, they seized control of Namtu, Mong Ngor, Nansang, Mangtong, Kutkai, Namkham, Monglong, Chin Shwe Haw, Theinni, Pangsai, Phaungsai, Laukkai, and Kon Kyan Townships.

Second wave of Operation-1027 was started on 25th June 2024 and the TNLA, the AA and the MNDAA seized control of Kyaukme, Thibaw, Mogok, Momeik, Nawnghkio and Lashio Townships. And then, they are making preparations to launch the third wave of Operation-1027 in 2025.

Moreover, the AA has seized control of Maungdaw, Rathedaung, Buthidaung, Kyauktaw, Ponnagyun, Gwa, Ranbre, Ann, Taung Goat, Minbya, Myebon, Pauktaw, Mrauk U and Thandwe in Rakhine State as well as Paletwa Township in Chin State.

CNI News

15 January 2025

Ta'ang nationalities must keep their weapons in their own hands, said chairman of the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) General Tar Aik Bong. He said the above on the 62th Anniversary of the Ta'ang National Revolution Day.

" We, the Ta'ang people, are indigenous people and on the one hand, they must keep their weapons in their own hands to defend themselves. With the changing global political landscape, the TNLA is always ready and prepared to take part in the political discussion that will emerge through the engagement of neighboring countries. But, with the revolutionary people, the TNLA will continue to fight in cooperation with other revolutionary forces for the permanent end of the military dictatorship and the establishment of a new federal democratic country" said General Tar Aik Bong.

While showing TNLA-controlled areas (ISP Myanmar)

In order to overthrow the evil military dictatorship, all classes, all revolutionary forces and organizations fought with all their strength and intelligence in a united manner during 2024, he felt he saw the red glow of dawn of the revolution's success, he said.

Revolutionary groups must continue to work together and fulfill revolutionary responsibilities in 2025 more than in previous years to overthrow the already weak military dictatorship, General Tar Aik Bong.

EAOs needed to abandon their weapons and politically discuss; they could not demand what they wanted through armed means, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

While seeing chairman of the SAC Sr-Gen Min Aung Aung Hlaing

In collaboration with the MNDAA, the AA and Spring Revolution forces, the TNLA launched Operation-1027 on 27th October 2023 and fought against the Myanmar Tatmadaw. 

And then, the TNLA was able to seize control of Namtu, Mong Ngor, Nansang, Mangtong, Kutkai, Namkham, Mong Long Townships. and then, in the second wave of Operation-1027 that started on 25th June 2024, the TNLA captured Kyaukme, Thibaw, Mogok, Momeik and Nawnghkio Townships.

Under Chinese mediation, the TNLA was willing to meet and negotiate with the Myanmar Tatmadaw, announced the TNLA in December 2024. However, no meeting or discussion reportedly has taken place up to now.