CNI News

25 April 2025

Freedom from corruption was needed in the construction of buildings for recovery from the earthquake disaster, U Aung Pyae Sone, a businessman, told CNI News.

He also said that the government needs to carry out strictly in systematically constructing houses and buildings for post-earthquake rehabilitation.

" There have been Construction Laws since the past years. And there are QC teams as well. Those QCs need to be true third parties. If the construction companies and QC are partners, that QC is not a third party.If you're building a building that can withstand a magnitude 8 or even 9 earthquake, it needs to be a really durable building. In reality, many lives will be lost due to unbearable consequences." he said.

While seeing officials inspecting the earthquake-damaged Sagaing Bridge

The Chairman of the State Administration Council, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, allocated 50 billion kyats for the rehabilitation of Sagaing Region and 60 billion kyats for the rehabilitation of Mandalay Region.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said that cement, iron and zinc sheets will be sold at reasonable prices for construction work in Mandalay and Sagaing to rebuild buildings.

He also said that financial assistance will be provided at appropriate rates for damaged houses, depending on their types.

While Senior General Min Aung Hlaing was meeting with officials

" How will the earthquake victims be accommodated while new shelters are being built? We asked the Chinese embassy for help. The embassy said it is preparing to build about 5,000 temporary houses before finishing constructing new buildings. When we went to the earthquake-hit areas to help, we had to find poor construction. The municipality's inspection was weak. Those who constructed buildings cheaply as well." said U Htet Aung Kyaw, Vice Chairman of the National Democratic Force Party.

The United States has pledged $9 million, the Quad (United States-India-Japan-Australia) $20 million, the United Nations $93 million, China over 1 billion yuan, Australia $2 million, and the European Union 13 million euros to help the people of Myanmar affected by the earthquake. 

Similarly, local businessmen and cronies donated 116.84 billion kyats to earthquake victims on April 1, the SAC chairman said.

CNI News

25 April 2025

Although the State Administration Council (SAC) has lost most of the townships in northern Shan State, if the SAC get Lashio back, it has even gain without making a loss, Colonel Khun Okkar, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Front (PNLO-NCA/S), told CNI News.

The Kokang Army, the National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), which has seized and taken control of Lashio, is beginning the process of handing over Lashio to the SAC on April 21, 2025 at the latest.

Compared to the SAC's failure to gain anything in northern Shan State, that the SAC regains Lashio is not a loss for it, Colonel Khun Okkar, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Front (PNLO-NCA/S), told CNI News.

"Getting Lashio back will not be a loss for the SAC in comparison with getting nothing. The SAC's prestige will also be restored. Because Lashio is a key city. Lashio controls the trade route to Muse. Lashio controls the route down to Mandalay. It's necessary to keep these routes so that trade can be revived. China wants that, too. Regaining Lashio like this is cheaper and less costly than using military force, and has fewer casualties. However, the sense that Nay Pyi Taw's influence is back on the rise is a win for SAC. It's not a loss." he said.

While seeing the MNDAA flags were no more at the traffic circle in Lashio

After China brokered a temporary ceasefire between the Myanmar Tatmadaw the National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Kokang forces were forced to withdraw from Lashio. On April 21, Kokang forces withdrew from the administration of Lashio, and reports said that Kokang flags were no longer flying in the city, leaving only the Myanmar national flag.

It is considered that The Kokang forces' handover of Lashio to the SAC due to the pressure from China. However, as a friend, China was advising relevant groups in Myanmar to pursue political reconciliation and restart the process of political reform, said the Chinese Foreign Ministry at a press conference on April 21.

That the SAC regained Lashio like that was encouraging for the SAC, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs analyst, told CNI News.

While seeing a place in downtown area of Lashio

"What was strange yesterday that China said they don't interfere in Myanmar's internal affairs. But, whether it is the negotiation issues or the Lashio issue, there are things that China is taking the lead in. In the past, China had done like this with the Khmer issue in Cambodia, the Sri Lankan issue, and the East Timor issue. As far as I know, China intervened as a peacekeeping force between the two sides and brokered a ceasefire. I had seen China developed that area. Now I can't say anything. They are still discussing. If the military council regains Lashio, it will be a morale booster for it. If the MNDAA wanted a basic area for the Kokang People, it wouldn't need Lashio. The MNDAA only needs the original Kokang region and a small area around it. So I don't know how they're going to regulate that. We'll have to wait and see." she said.

The Northern Alliance in northern Shan State and the PDFs have to retreat from all the towns between Muse and Mandalay and the towns reportedly include Kutkai, Theinni, Thibaw, Kyaukme, and Nawnghkio.

The MNDAA is reportedly stationed outside Lashio, although it must follow Chinese instructions.

CNI News

24 April 2025

ASEAN's engagement with the Chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC) is an attempt to shape the political landscape in Myanmar as a turning point, U Myo Kyaw, spokesperson for the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA), told CNI News.

ASEAN rotating chairman, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar, Advisor to the ASEAN Chairman, former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and the SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing met in Bangkok, Thailand, on 17 April 2025. 

In addition, Malaysian Prime Minister Mr. Anwar and the National Unity Government (NUG) Prime Minister Mahn Win Khaing Than held an online meeting on April 18, 2025, the NUG announced.

While seeing Thaksin, Advisor to the Chairman of ASEAN and the Chairman of the SAC

ASEAN is becoming more involved in Myanmar's affairs because the current military situation, violence, and conflict avoidance in Myanmar are also affecting ASEAN, U Myo Kyaw, spokesperson for the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA), told CNI News.

"Myanmar shares borders with ASEAN members Thailand and Laos. Myanmar is closely linked to ASEAN member states. Myanmar's image is being badly damaged, not only in ASEAN and Asia, but also globally. Violent killings and displacement in Myanmar are also affecting ASEAN. And the strategic military situation at Myanmar's western gate is likely to become quite tense. That is why ASEAN is becoming more involved in Myanmar affairs. In particular, former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin was very close to the Myanmar military leaders. I see that, together with him, ASEAN leaders are trying to shape a turning point in the Myanmar political landscape." he said.

SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin, and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar, the rotating chairman of ASEAN, discussed the ASEAN community's continued support for Myanmar's recovery efforts from the earthquake disaster. In addition, they also discussed cooperation issues within the Myanmar-ASEAN community.

While the ASEAN rotating chairman, Anwar and the NUG's Mahn Win Khaing Than were discussing online

ASEAN appeared to be intervening in any regional political changes and was trying to resolve issues politically, U Thein Tun Oo, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNI.

"To be honest, ASEAN is playing games with China and the US, which side will they take? In any case, it's a form of brokered-engagement where they can intervene and they only tried what they were able to do in any political change in the region. So, what ASEAN's role is depends on how well it works. We can't just expect that everything will be resolved if ASEAN steps in and helps. But we need to watch how much more ASEAN can do." he said.

The year 2025 will be a turning point for the revolution, the NUG will work harder to win the revolution, Acting President of the NUG, Duwa Lashi La said in his New Year's speech on April 17, 2025.

CNI News
23 April 2025

The Myanmar Tatmadaw declared a ceasefire from April 2 to 22 to allow for humanitarian assistance to those affected by the earthquake, and the Office of the Commander-in-Chief of the Defense Services announced today that the ceasefire has been extended.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw has extended the ceasefire until April 30. The Tatmadaw has announced the extension of the temporary ceasefire period from 23 to 30 April 2025 to enable the government to accelerate reconstruction and rehabilitation work in the earthquake-affected areas, to more quickly implement the interests of the state and all citizens, and to establish lasting and genuine peace.

During the period of the temporary ceasefire, ethnic armed groups and other armed groups are prohibited from gathering, organizing, or expanding their territory in a way that would disrupt and damage communication routes used by the public, harm the lives and property of the public, or damage the bases of security forces carrying out security and law enforcement duties. If the groups violate the prohibitions, the Tatmadaw will take necessary countermeasures to protect the public, said in the statement.

CNI Article
23 April 2025

The civil war has been breaking out in Myanmar for over 70 years since three months after Myanmar gained her independence on January 4, 1948, due to the inability to resolve ethnic issues.

Successive governments have attempted to end the civil war in order to achieve internal peace, but it has not been resolved up to now. However, under the government of President U Thein Sein (retired), a different approach was taken, with a nationwide invitation to peace talks on August 18, 2011, and the talks were held.

In the past, peace was only achieved when the rebels laid down their arms. However, under the Thein Sein government, peace was built in the form of a ceasefire and peace talks, although the rebels still held arms, and the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) was implemented.

The NCA was proposed by ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), and the government, military, and Hluttaw accepted and discussed the EAOs’ proposal.

Then, on March 31, 2015, they signed the draft NCA agreement. Then, on October 15, 2015, the Restoration Council for Shan State (RCSS/SSA), the Karen National Union (KNU), the Karen National Union/Karen National Liberation Army-Peace Council (KNU/KNLA-PC), the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA), the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO), the Chin National Front (CNF), the All Burma Students Democratic Front (ABSDF), and the Arakan Liberation Party (ALP) signed the NCA.
Then, on February 13, 2018, the New Mon State Party (NMSP) and the Lahu Democratic Union (LDU) signed the NCA. The Kachin Independence Organization (KIO/KIA), the United Wa State Party (UWSP/UWSA), the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA-Mingla), the Shan State Progressive Party (SSPP/SSA), the Palaung State Liberation Front  (PSLF/TNLA), the United League of Arakan (ULA/AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), and the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K) have not signed the NCA and are still negotiating.

Although there are groups that have not signed the NCA and groups that have signed it, as a journalist, I will review the findings from the situations related to groups that have signed the NCA. It has been more than 5 years since the signing and implementation of the NCA between the government-military and 10 ethnic armed groups to end the ongoing internal armed conflicts in Myanmar.

In the five years since the NCA was launched, as a journalist, I have examined the NCA's shortcomings and whether the agreements were being implemented. Here are the findings:

• 
  Armed groups have not established a specific mechanism to take action if they commit human rights violations against civilians during the war or commit crimes prohibited under the NCA. Some point to the JMC, some point to existing laws, but the question is whether it can be solved in practice.
  
  § The government is unable to establish a mechanism to lead and resolve military and political crises arising from disputes and implementation of the NCA agreements. During the U Thein Sein government, the Union Peacemaking Central Committee (UPCC) was established as a mechanism to resolve conflicts. The NLD government did not establish a resolution mechanism. The SAC has a resolution mechanism, but it cannot act.
  
  § A situation where action can be taken against those who violate the agreements in the NCA agreement cannot be created. (There are martial laws but no peacekeeping laws - is it considered unnecessary?) Myanmar has too many armed groups, so a peacekeeping law should be enacted. Since the NCA also states that it will work with accountability and transparency, there should be a peacekeeping intermediary law.
  
  § The Joint Monitoring Committee (JMC) on the ceasefire, established under Chapter 3 of the NCA, has been weak in implementation and was not able to implement some cases.
  
  § The JMC has no authority to take action or intervene in the event of an armed conflict, but is only at the reporting level. The JMC has less authority than the Liaison Office formed by ethnic armed groups.
  
  § The JMC has no authority to investigate or take action on human rights violations committed against civilians during the war, but only to report them. Instead of creating a platform where officials can investigate human rights violations on the ground, they have only built a mechanism that works only when people who have been violated come forward to complain. The likelihood of being held accountable for the lives of people who come forward to complain about human rights violations is low. Because the armed groups that are the subject of the complaint are present at the JMC, the armed groups will know who has filed the complaint, which raises questions about how the complainant's life and safety are guaranteed.
  
  § There is a lack of public awareness or lack of capacity to raise public awareness of the agreements in the NCA and the nature of the JMC mechanism.
  
  § The JMC mechanism is not allowed to be established in some regions. The JMC-S (Region or State Level) has not been formed in Chin State and Rakhine State, where CNF and ALP are active. Some say there is no need to form a JMC because there is no armed conflict. Although there is no armed conflict, armed groups operating in the area are committing human rights violations and abuses against the population. The question is who will take responsibility if there is no JMC-S there.

• § Some armed groups are allowed to participate as representatives in the JMC-Ss formed in the regions and states where they operate, while some armed groups are not allowed to participate as representatives in the JMC-Ss formed in the regions and states where they operate. For example, The New Mon State Party (NMSP) is only allowed to have representatives in the Mon State JMC-S and is not allowed to participate in the JMC-S formed in Kayin State and Tanintharyi Region. The Karen National Union (KNU) is allowed to participate as a representative in the JMC-Ss formed in Kayin State, Mon State, Bago Region, and Tanintharyi Region.
  
  § State-level JMC-S meetings are often not held due to some of the JMC's operational guidelines. For example, (The Shan State-level JMC-S meetings, which were scheduled to be held once a month, were not held because the RCSS announced in November 2018 that it would temporarily suspend its attendance at JMC meetings.)
  
  § If an armed group decides not to attend a state-level JMC-S meeting, the meeting cannot be held. In the event of an armed conflict between an armed group that does not attend and another armed group, there is no other mechanism to resolve the conflict other than the JMC-S. For example, When the RCSS and the PNLO clashed, the Shan State JMC-S meeting was unable to resolve the clash because the RCSS had announced in advance that it would not attend JMC meetings. When the RCSS-the PNLO fighting caused public suffering and houses were burned, a complaint was filed with the Shan State JMC-S, but the meeting could not be held, so no resolution was possible.
  
  § The controversy stems from the lack of a specific location for national political dialogues. Due to these disputes, the RCSS has not been able to hold a national-level political dialogue (based on ethnicity) to this day. Similarly, the ALP has yet to hold a national-level political dialogue (based on ethnicity) in Rakhine State.
  
  § Chapter (6) of the NCA agreement stipulates the implementation of interim plans (rehabilitation and development programs), but they have not been implemented to date.
  
  § The NCA agreement stipulates that lower-level commanders must meet with one another to avoid territorial disputes and military conflict, but in practice, the process of meeting lower-level commanders between the Tatmadaw and the armed groups that have signed the NCA has not yet been implemented.
  
  § Since the NCA does not clearly define which areas are ceasefire areas, clashes have occurred both between armed groups that have signed the NCA (for example, the conflict between the New Mon State Party (NMSP) and the Karen National Union (KNU)) and between the Tatmadaw and groups that have signed the NCA (for example, the Tatmadaw and the RCSS, and the Tatmadaw and the KNU Brigade 5).
  
  § Although the NCA states that any project must be implemented after first negotiating and obtaining an agreement with the relevant armed groups operating in the area, when the parliament approves the budget, the Hluttaw implements the projects on its own, leading up to disputes and clashes between the Tatmadaw and the relevant armed group. (For example, clashes between the Tatmadaw and the KNU in Karen State) Therefore, the questions arise as to whether the Hluttaw has the right to influence the NCA agreement and whether the connection between the parliament and the NCA agreement is missing.
  
  § The preamble to the NCA has stated that we, the signatories of this Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), mutually resolve to work together to implement the provisions of this Agreement without fail until they are successfully completed, based on responsibility, accountability, and transparency, in order to achieve long-term and sustainable peace.

• However, if one of the NCA-signed groups says it is no longer attending meetings, the NCA agreement has become weak and there is no mechanism in place to address the situation if all peace processes come to a halt.

In November 2018, the entire peace process came to a standstill when the KNU, one of the NCA-signatories, announced a temporary suspension from attending official peace process meetings, and the RCSS announced a temporary suspension from attending official JMC meetings. And then, it is necessary to find a solution to how to deal with a situation in which any process could not be implemented.

Due to the political changes in Myanmar since February 1, 2021, the NCA's processes have been disputed, making it difficult to resolve whether it is still valid or invalid. The above-mentioned circumstances are the reasons that emerged from reviewing the NCA agreement and the implementation of the agreements contained in the NCA agreement. We all know that successfully implementing the peace process is a very difficult process.

To succeed in such a difficult process, it is necessary to review all aspects, identify gaps between reality and contractual conditions, and strive to make adjustments to achieve the best possible outcome.

The above points are based on the observations of an observer of the peace process, and may differ from the understandings and findings of the groups discussing the implementation of the NCA.

In any case, we will continue to monitor the work of relevant officials to ensure the effective implementation of the NCA and the agreements contained in the NCA.

Or, it remains to be seen whether they will learn from the NCA and implement another new agreement to move the peace process forward.

US tariff hike could hurt Myanmar's garment industry

CNI News

15 April 2025

Myanmar's exports to the US could suffer, especially those from the garment industry, as the US President Donald Trump imposes a 44 percent tariff on imports from Myanmar, economists told CNI News. 
On April 2, US President Donald Trump increased tariffs on goods imported into the US from various countries around the world, including Myanmar.

The US has increased tariffs as existing investments in Myanmar are struggling due to the earthquake. 

It was difficult to expect new investments, Ko Zaw Min Naing, an agricultural and economic advisor, told CNI News.

"Myanmar is included in the countries that Trump has increased trade tariffs on. I hear that the garment industry is going to suffer. Some brands are sewn in Myanmar. They have to be sewn and then shipped back. So if the tariffs are increased, the viability of garment factories here is going to be a problem. Because of the Trade War, the existing investments in Myanmar are struggling. It's not easy to get more investment. When the SAC chairman went to Russia and Belarus, they signed agreements. I can't say whether investments in the energy sector will enter Myanmar. It's very difficult to expect other investments. It may be because of the trade war. Another thing is related to infrastructure. Even in areas that were hit by the earthquake, including Mandalay, electricity has not been restored to normal. In a situation like this, it is less likely that foreign investments will enter the country. Because charges are too high due to the trade war, existing investments are struggling." said Ko Zaw Min Naing.

While seeing the port where goods are released

The White House press conference said that the tax increase is an effort to ensure fairness in trade with the United States and to prevent excessive profits. 

The United States has increased tariffs on more than 180 countries, including Myanmar, which is the highest tariff increase in decades, according to international reports.

Banking expert U Htay Aung Kyi told CNI News that the increase in tariffs will force US importers to choose countries with lower tariffs, depending on the product.

While rescuing those affected by the earthquake in Myanmar

"Tariffs are money that American importers have to pay, so they will raise prices. After all, it will be the American consumers who suffer. American importers will choose the products from the countries with lower import tariffs." he said.

The World Bank's Myanmar Economic Monitor report, released on December 11, predicted that the Myanmar economy would shrink by another 1 percent by March 2025 due to the spread of armed conflicts, natural disasters, and shortages of basic goods. However, the report does not take into account the impact on the country's economy from the damage caused by the recent earthquake.

Earthquake disaster could reduce tourism in Myanmar

CNI News

12 April 2025

The earthquake that struck Myanmar on March 28, 2025, could reduce domestic and international tourism, tour operators told CNI News. 

Mandalay, Pyin Oo Lwin, and Inle Lake are popular tourist destinations, but as the earthquake centered around Mandalay and Sagaing, these areas felt the pinch of the earthquake badly.

Therefore, some tourists may only visit Bagan and beach areas during the Thingyan holiday, a tourism entrepreneur told CNI.

"The current tourists mainly go to Bagan, Mandalay, and Inle Lake. Bagan is okay. Mandalay is badly damaged. In Inle Lake, you can only see three places. Hundreds of must-see places are all destroyed. The time to repair will take at least 6 months to 1 year because the rescue operations are still ongoing. Recovery and reconstruction will also take time. Donors will also be needed. Some people may go to beach areas during Thingyan, I think. Others may go to Bagan. They all can't go to Mandalay." he said.

Compared to the number of foreign tourists who entered the country in 2024, it is not easy to reach 1 million in 2025. 

While seeing beachgoers

The Ministry of Hotels and Tourism announced on April 3 that it has temporarily suspended the application of visitor visas for foreigners who will visit Myanmar.

Online applications for visitor visas have been suspended, and applications can be made in person at embassies. 

A travel agent told CNI that it could be convenient to apply for a visitor visa at the embassy.

" If people from the countries with Myanmar Embassies apply for visit visas at the embassy, it is convenient. Some foreigners want to come to Myanmar to study the situation. Because nothing happened to Bagan, they want to study it. But they are not from western countries. There are people from Greece, Spain, Mexico and Argentina who want to come to Myanmar. But two package tours were cancelled in April. So, it would be convenient if visa on arrival was allowed." he said.

he earthquake that struck Myanmar on March 28 has left 3,649 people dead, 5,018 injured, and 145 missing as of April 9, 2025, according to Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Htun, leader of the SAC Information Team.

In addition, roads, bridges, communication networks, homes, religious buildings, schools, government offices, staff housing, and hotels were destroyed.

CNI News

11 April 2025

The international community's provision of humanitarian assistance to earthquake-affected people in Myanmar does not imply political recognition of the SAC government, Colonel Khun Okkar, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), which signed the NCA, told CNI News. 

He said that the international aid is within the framework of humanitarian assistance and does not imply any legitimacy or political recognition for the SAC government.

“Despite political opposition, the earthquake has become a humanitarian issue, and due to the earthquake, when citizens suffer casualties and damage, which But has necessitated international assistance. But it doesn't imply political recognition and legitimacy of the SAC, I think. There are countries that said their aids were not tantamount of the political recommendation as a pre-condition." said Col. Khun Okkar.

Experts on international diplomacy have pointed out that efforts should be made to gain political legitimacy from international aid for the earthquake, and that the SAC should try to open international diplomatic channels. 

While the SAC Chairman was observing the Indian medical team providing healthcare to Myanmar earthquake victims

Myanmar had planned to hold a general election in December 2025 or January 2026, SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said at a joint press conference with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on March 7, 2025.

Furthermore, the Union Election Commission (UEC) announced on April 8, 2025 that political parties that will contest the upcoming elections must apply for political party registration by May 9. 

If elections were not held, the international community might consider that the country would continue to suffer because the SAC government would continue to rule the country, U Sai Htay Aung, chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) National Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News.

While seeing the Union Election Commission and political parties

" Opposition against the SAC is their side. Rather than that the SAC tries to win legitimacy, the nature created kind of. When a powerful earthquake struck Myanmar, there were some recognition pf the Tatmadaw. Powerful countries may consider if elections were not held, because the SAC would continue to rule the country, the Myanmar would continue to get into trouble. But if elections were held, we could discuss and negotiate with the government that would come to power." he said.

The head of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), Tom Fletcher, said during a meeting with SAC Foreign Minister U Than Swe on April 6, 2025 that international pledges of $93 million have been received to help the Myanmar earthquake-affected people.

Similarly, the United States has announced $9 million in aid for earthquake victims in Myanmar, while the Quad, which includes the United States, Japan, Australia, and India, has pledged $20 million for the Myanmar earthquake. They point out that holding elections in 2025 will not be easy, as Myanmar currently has earthquake and war recovery efforts to carry out, as well as efforts to recover from the economic downturn.

CNI Article

11 April 2025

In Myanmar where there is no civilian or elected government, with unstable politics armed battles are taking place throughout the country and the number of IDPs has been over three million. 

Due to battles, homes, religious buildings and hotels are being destroyed while the rule of law and stability are also very weak.

Moreover, with the loss of free movement between regions, socio-economic conditions are also declining along with the decline in trade. Myanmar, which is facing such general crises, has been hit again by natural disasters. Rakhine State suffered Cyclone Mocha in 2023 and the people there felt the pinch of flood in 2024 before the reconstruction was finished.

On the evening of April 8, leader of the Information Team, Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun, said that a 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck Myanmar on March 28, 2025, killing 3,645 people, injuring 5,017, and leaving 148 missing. (The numbers may continue to grow.) Similarly, roads, bridges, homes, hotels, religious buildings, telecommunications networks, government office buildings, and government housing were destroyed.

The earthquake shook central Myanmar, badly affecting Mandalay, Myanmar's second economic capital, and Naypyidaw, the administrative capital, which both of cities are de-conflict zone. Therefore, UN Secretary-General Guterres has said that between 17 million and 20 million people in Myanmar could be in need of humanitarian assistance due to the earthquake, with more than 9 million people in Mandalay, Sagaing and Naypyidaw, which were the hardest hit by the earthquake, in need of humanitarian assistance.

In any case, the earthquake may cause (1) further economic decline, (2) more unemployment, (3) more psychological distress, (4) weaker social and health services, (5) more small and medium-sized enterprises to cease operations, (6) more hotel and tourism sectors to decline, (7) more people in need of assistance (refugees), (8) more looting, and (9) more deterioration of the rule of law.

To overcome these situations, (1) earthquake relief and rehabilitation efforts will need to be strengthened, (2) the rule of law and stability will need to be strengthened, (3) battles will need to be reduced, (4) international assistance will need to be obtained, (5) regional people will need to unite and support each other, (6) commodity prices will need to be stabilized, and (7) roads, bridges, and communication networks will need to be restored as soon as possible.

In addition, (8) the government mechanisms will need to be restored as soon as possible; (9) infrastructure will need to be rebuilt as soon as possible; (10) electricity will need to be restored in most areas; (11) assistance will be needed to help small and medium-sized enterprises recover; (12) social services and health services will need to be restored; (13) an economic development strategy will need to be in place; and (14) international investment will need to be brought in.

If these conditions cannot be established, the country may struggle with economic decline and higher unemployment rate amid war, earthquakes, floods, and storms.

It is very difficult to hold elections under such circumstances. On the other hand, efforts are being made to hold elections as a way to resolve the general crisis.

However, experts said that holding elections amid the earthquake and war crises is very difficult.

Because, from a justice and humanitarian perspective, the Myanmar people are facing all sorts of disasters, they point out.

In any case, if elections are held without fail, there will be no elections and representatives respected by the public and the international community. Political parties and those who want to be members of the Hluttaw in Myanmar are currently isolated from the public after the earthquake.

Especially in the general crisis facing the public, political parties and those who want to be members of the Hluttaw only want to get the public's votes, but the public lacks the confidence to vote.

In a country without a civilian or elected government and facing battles, economic decline and various disasters like Myanmar, it will be very dificult, pointed out experts.

However, experts point out that in a country that has been destabilized by various disasters and wars, elections can be held if (1) the economy is stable, (2) disaster-affected and those in need of assistance can be restored, (3) infrastructure (government offices, roads and bridges, polling stations, health and education facilities, telecommunications networks, parliament) can be rebuilt, (4) the areas where the elections will be held are safe and stable, and (5) the international community and the public believe that the elections are necessary.

Haiti was hit by a 7.1 magnitude earthquake in 2010, and reconstruction efforts are still ongoing (not yet finished). The following aspects are often considered as the main aspects in reconstruction efforts in earthquake-affected countries.

(1) Rebuilding infrastructure

 Reconstruction of houses, hospitals, schools, roads, bridges, and communication networks.
 Projects to provide access to clean water and electricity.

(2) Social rehabilitation

 Providing psychological support and treatment.
 Assistance for the homeless.
 Protection of children and the vulnerable.

(3) Working to revive the economy

 Creating employment opportunities.
 Supporting small and medium-sized enterprises.
 Rehabilitating agriculture and fishing.

(4) Disaster management

 Prepare for future disasters.
 Build disaster warning systems.
 Improve emergency response systems.

Myanmar currently needs to undertake earthquake recovery and build sustainable development. These two processes are not easy to carry out without international assistance.

So, how can the earthquake disaster and the expectation of holding elections come about? What would happen to the economy and social services of a country without a civilian government (or elected government)? What could happen to the rule of law and stability facing challenges?

What would happen if elections were held amid similar crises? If a government is formed after elections are held, will the government that will come to power be able to address the general crisis in Myanmar? What will happen to Myanmar if elections cannot be held due to the ongoing crisis?