CNI News

27 December 2024

Activities that penetrate the Ayeyarwady Delta might become front lines there in 2025, pointed out military and political analysts. 

The Yaw Army (YA) would collaborate with its allies and speed up their military activities, it announced on 24th December, 2024. 

The YA has been waging battles together with its allies including the AA and Chin Brother armed groups staring from the battle for the capture of Matupi Town, it said.

It could be considered as a beginning for the liberation of Yaw and Saw regions in Magway Region, and military activities that would generate the Ayeyarwady delta After the Gwa Town battles could become front lines in 2025, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator told CNI News.

While seeing the Yaw Army

" If you go down the Ann-Padan road, you can reach Magway Region. That the AA has seized control of the Myanmar Tatmadaw's military command in Ann can cause revolutionary movements and is the beginning for the liberation of Yaw and Saw regions, I think. The movements in these regions will become Operatioin-1027 of the Spring Revolution, which we welcome. Lots of battles might break out in Magway Region. On the other hand, after the Gwa battles, the next battleground might be the delta region. Now Tve heard that underground PDFs have made preparations. So, military activities that will penetrate the delta region might become the front of 2025." he said.

Speeding up military activities might obviously emerge before 20th January and the AA might go to the allies' regions to conduct joint operation, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP) Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News.

While seeing the delta region (Frontier Myanmar)

" Speeding up military activities by revolutionary forces including the AA might emerge before 20th January 2025 because the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States is scheduled to take place on Monday, January 20, 2025. Before that period, according to the Burma Act of the US, how much the National Defense Authorization Act support money to the revolutionary groups for non-weapon aid and CSOs. So, they need to show how they implement. I'm not sure whether the AA alone waged battles or with forces from northern Shan State or PDFs and drone technologists from the mainland in the Rakhine State battleground. If the mainland PDFs and drone technologists were included, the AA also could be included in the PDFs' operation in the upcountry." he said.

Military activities could speed up in Magway and Ayeyarwady Regions and lots of revolutionary forces could take part in the battles against the Myanmar Tatmadaw, considered military and political analysts.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw reportedly has deployed military columns in Taung Zauk where the Chinese Oil Control Station is located, 20 miles away from Ann Town to regain control of its West Command which has been captured by the AA.

CNI News

26 December 2024

Informal meetings could continue in 2025 and NCA signatories could become more important, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

At present, as informal meetings have been between non-NCA signatories and China or the SAC, the role of NCA signatories could be more important in 2025, he said.

"The uniqueness of 2025 is the election. Before the election, informal meetings have started between non-NCA signatories and the SAC or China. The role of NCA signatories will become more important, I think. There are armed groups that are fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw without signing the NCA as well as armed groups that are fighting against the SAC only after signing the NCA. At present, there have been informal meetings between non-NCA signatories and the SAC. Armed groups that are fighting against the SAC again after signing the NCA such as the KNU and the CNF could conduct informal meetings at the second stage, I think. Informal meetings can emerge in China, India and Thailand in 2025, I think." said Col. Khun Okkar.

China discussed with three northern armed groups (TNLA, MNDAA, AA) that haven't signed the NCA in December while the SAC discussed with the MNDAA. 

While the anniversary celebration of the NCA was being held

There were arguments regarding whether the NCA was void or not after 2021.

Finding an answer to the current political crisis with all-inclusive political dialogues was the best, spokesperson of the 7 EAO Alliance that have signed the NCA, Col. Saw Kyaw Nyunt told CNI News.

" These problems, difficulties and crises emerged from the political problems. It's necessary to build a new political culture that finds an answer through political means without solving the political problems through military means so that we can start talking amidst various difficulties. That the discussion was able to be conducted is a first good step. There were arguments regarding whether the NCA was void or not after 2021." he said.

There were 10 NCA signatories and peace talks were held for many years in the name of the Peace Process Steering Team.

However, there were disagreements among the NCA signatories after 2021 and the KNU, the CNF and the ABSDF said that the NCA had been void and decided to fight against the SAC.

CNI News
25 December 2024

The Revolutionary groups have not yet reached the stage of taking over central Myanmar kind of, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

As battles were coming soon on the Yangon-Mandalay Expressway, the People's Defense Force in the Natogyi region warned the people not to travel unless necessary on 23rd December 2024.

As the revolutionary groups, the ability to attack and capture the central region of Myanmar was at a very high level. They don't seem to reach that stage yet, said Col. Khun Okkar.

" There has been an increase in the number of revolutionary groups and weapons are also scattered. Some of the revolutionary forces managed to reach the highway in a hurry because the expressway is very long. But as the revolutionary groups, the ability to attack and capture the central region of Myanmar is at a very high level. As that stage was reached only in the World War, I'm not sure the civil war has reached that stage. I don't think they have reached that stage." he said.

While seeing some PDF troops on the Yangon-Mandalay Expressway

On 23rd December 2024, a video file in which No. (4-10) Battalion of the Natogyi PDF was warning the passengers on some buses on the Yangon-Mandalay Expressway, emerged. The PDf told the passengers not to travel without necessity.

Political demands must be conducted through political means only, but not through armed means. Any society would not accept the armed terrorist acts and all of them needed to oppose it, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing at the Christmas Thanksgiving Ceremony on 22nd December 2024.

Battles could break out in small towns only and they could not reach the cities; commodities could be blocked by cutting out the transportation, U Kyi Myint, a political commentator, told CNI News.

" Battles can't reach the cities, but can break out in small towns. Revolutionary forces can threaten freight transportation. They can block commodities by cutting out transportation." he said.

If armed conflicts broke out on the expressway, public transportation, the flow of goods, travelling for health and social reasons could be suspended, pointed out political commentators.

Battles are severely breaking out across the country and there are over four million IDPs in Myanmar, according to the office of UNHCR on 2nd December 2024.

CNI News
25 December 2024

Political demands could not be conducted through armed means but through discussion, said chairman of the State Administration Council, Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

He said the above at the Christmas Thanksgiving Ceremony held at St. Jary's Cathedral Church in Botahtaung Township on 22nd December 2024.

"Problems encountered within a community of people living together could be resolved through dialogue, a democratic means. Political problems or political demands must be conducted through political means only, but not through armed means." said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

Just as no society accepted the path of armed terrorist acts, they all needed to oppose it; his government laid down road maps and national goals and was trying hard to win the goals, he said.

Political dialogue was accepted by everyone, but some armed groups were refused to meet and discuss, so they had to choose armed means, which should be taken care of, said an EAO leader.

" Everyone accepts that an answer must be found only after meeting and discussion. They met and discussed, but won nothing. Their demand was refused. So, everyone has come to accept that they will be treated equally only when they have maintained weapons. It's happening like this in practice. Next, there are armed groups which accept the peace offer of the Myanmar Tatmadaw and want to meet and discuss. But they were refused. Only E?AOs that were discussed previously would be accepted. So, how will all-inclusive dialogue become? Then in that case, the peace process will never succeed. The groups that were refused considered that they would be stronger. The Tatmadaw should think about it."he said.

Armed conflicts are widely breaking out throughout the country and there is little interest in the Myanmar military's invitations for peace offers.

In the same way, the peace process between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and NCA signatories are not effective and there are even situations where fighting could break out.

CNI News
25 December 2024

Bahmo was important to the China-India route, spokesperson of the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA), U Myo Kyaw told CNI News.

The delegation led by General N'Ban La, chairman of the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO/KIA) and the Chinese delegation led by Wu Gang, member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) discussed in China on 12th December 2024.

China called and discussed with the KIO/KIA, which was for its interests only, and the continued fighting showed that no agreement had been reached, said U Myo Kyaw.

" Bahmo is important to the Kachin State. You can go there by waterway. If a route between China and India emerged, Bahmo would be a pivotal place. Bahmo is more pivotal in military, politics and economy. Battles are breaking out between the KIA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw. After the KIA talked with China, border gates have been re-opened. Interests are different. In the past, there was the Kachin Special Region-1. It has been captured by the KIA. After that, The KIA's relation with China was tightened and China closed down its border gates with Kachin State. Soon after that, the KIA also closed down its border gates. And then, it was necessary to talk. After the two sides discussed, the border gates were re-opened. On the other hand, the KIA is severely attacking Bahmo, second capital of Kachin State. Although they met, agreements for peace or give and take were not reached."he said.

While seeing leader of the KIA, General N'Ban La

China urged the KIA to stabilize the border areas, reopen the China-Myanmar border gates, cease fire in Kachin State and discuss peace talks with the Myanmar Tatmadaw after which border gates were re-opened. However, battles are still severe.

The towns that have been captured by the KIA are located near the Chinese border, it is not easy for the Myanmar Tatmadaw to carry out air strikes, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs commentator, told CNI News.

" As soon as the KIA attacks and captures a region, it conducts basic reconstruction because CDM experts and physicians have been there in Myitkyina and Bahmo. What the KIA is more capable than the MNDAA, the territories the KIA has captured are border areas with China. So, the Myanmar Tatmadaw can't conduct air strikes." she said.

Among the towns the KIA has captured, Chipwi and Panwa are included, where rare earth is produced. China is desperately in need of rare earth. Moreover, most places in Hpa-kant Township have been captured by the KIA.

The KIA has captured 13 towns in Kachin State over 3 years after 2021 and nearly 300 military camps of the Myanmar Tatmadaw.

While seeing the entrance to Bahmo and the KIA

While seeing leader of the KIA, General N'Ban La

While seeing the KIA

CNI News

24 December 2024

The Arakan Army (AA) would enter Magway Region and the capture of the Myanmar Tatmadaw's weapon factories might be the AA's second front, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.

Ann town-based the West Command of the Myanmar Tatmadaw had been captured by the AA, announced the AA 20th December 2024.

Moreover, its offensive was accelerating for the battle to capture Gwa, said the AA on 21st December.

If the AA joined the underground revolutionary forces in Ayeyarwady Region, Ayeyarwady Region might be a unique guerilla region; Magway Region was the second front that the AA would have to focus on, said U Than Soe Naing.

While seeing a junction in Rakhine State

"According to the news I've heard, the AA forces have already arrived in Ngathaing Gyaung, Ayeyarwady Region. If the AA forces arrive there and join the underground revolutionary forces in Ayeyarwady Region, the region might become a unique guerilla region, I hope. The AA will be able to capture Gwa. Now that Ann has fallen into the hands of the AA, Kyauk Phyu and Sittwe are mainly left to be captured. But the AA doesn't have to capture Kyauk Phyu because there are lots of foreign investment especially the Chinese investments. What we mainly need is Sittwe. As the AA has got Ann, entering Magway Region, to capture the Myanmar Tatmadaw's weapon factories is the second front that the AA has to pay attention, I think." he said.

The NUG would fight for the liberation of the entire people in Myanmar together with the AA, said Acting President Duwa Lashi La of the NUG in his letter sent to the AA on 22nd December 2024. 

Moreover, The NUG formed the Ayeyarwady Region Command on 12th December 2024 and was fighting in collaboration with ethnic armed groups, said in the NUG's statement. 

Because the directions of both sides were different, war could only be ended with war, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News.

While seeing the AA

"The other side is heading towards war. The SAC is heading towards peace. There is not a situation that cannot be negotiated. Frankly speaking, war could only be ended with war. Usually, those who are focused on war, when they feel that their side has won and that victories are coming, tend to expand territories. When they enter Ayeyarwady Region, locals' attitude is important. And how will the SAC take action? How will the Myanmar Tatmadaw defense it? These things are mainly important. Only coordination will be able to prevent the AA." he said.

Among 17 townships in Rakhine State, the AA has captured 13 towns and the AA is severely launching an offensive to Gwa Town; there are only Sittwe, Kyauk Phyu and Manaung to capture, released the AA.

Battles are severely breaking out between the AA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw in Rakhine State and there have been a lot of IDPs. 

There were over four million refugees in Myanmar, according to the records of the UNHCR office on 2nd December 2024.

CNI News

23 December 2024

In some townships in Ayeyarwady Region, which borders Rakhine State, security is deteriorating, which caused difficulties for businesses, according to locals. 

Gwa Township in Rakhine Township where the battles are breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the Arakan Army, is the nearest town to Ayeyarwady Region and as Rakhine locals entered Ayeyarwady Region as IDPs, the security in the region has become weak and checks are being tightened. 

For security, the Myanmar Tatmadaw is recruiting, an anonymous local from Ayeyarwady Region told CNI News.

While the government of Ayeyarwady Region is making checks

" The security situation in NgathaingGyaung and Tharbaung Townships close to Gwa in Rakhine State as well as Yegyi, Ingapu, Myanaung and Kyangin Townships is a little worrying. Because all traffic has been controlled, it's a bit of a burden for locals to live, eat, travel, and come and go. Moreover, because youths are called up for military service if necessary, it's a bit weak in the security of the villages in the townships adjacent to Rakhine State." he said.

Moreover, the authorities reportedly don't allow the people holding 11/ national verification cards in Ngwe Thaung Yan Township.

So, Rakhine IDPs have to stay in the temporary huts, said locals. 

Because the authorities are worried that the AA forces will enter Ayeyarwady Region with IDPs, there are strict checks on entry/exit to the towns. So, locals are finding it difficult in their transportation and businesses.

While seeing the entrance to Pathein City

The people in the eastern parts of the Rakhine Yoma were finding it more difficult, said a local to CNI News. 

“The eastern part of the Yoma is inside Ayeyarwady Region where locals gather firewood, bake charcoal and plant perennial fruit trees. Now because their livelihood is not convenient. On the other hand, as the authorities are carrying out strict security measures, locals can't gather firewood or bake charcoal freely." he said.

At present, the AA has blocked the Gwa-NgathaingGyaung Road to prevent the arrival of Myanmar Army reinforcements while the Myanmar Tatmadaw is preventing the arrival of commodities to Rakhine State from Ayeyarwady Region.

CNI News

23 December 2024

The Program for Peace and Federal Democracy (PPFD) was carrying out so as to expand the political framework in order that peace issues could be solved through political means, chairman of the People's Party (PP) U Ko Ko Gyi told CNI News. 

The 7 NCA signatories alliance, political parties, political elements and CSOs Network For Peace and Federal Democracy jointly built the Program for Peace and Federal Democracy (PPFD) on 13th October 2024.

It was formed with the aim of resolving political issues through political means in implementing peace and federal democracy. 

It was an attempt to re-strengthen political means so that the social life difficulties of the people could be stopped as soon as possible, said U Ko Ko Gyi.

While the negotiations were being conducted for the PPFD

" When the military frame work expands, the political framework becomes narrow. Only when the political framework re-expands, will the culture of resolving the peace issue through political means re-emerge. So, although armed conflicts are severe at present, stakeholders will have to come to the political roundtable sometime in the future. When they reach at the political roundtable, what points might be equal and what points might be different, which we have studied in advance. By doing so, when all-inclusive dialogue is conducted, complete and good basic points will be agreed, we hope. We are trying for that. When you fight a war, you have to find the necessities for the war in various ways. Those who wage war will collect taxes from the people and demand tribute. This is becoming a burden on the people over time. While the economy is not convenient, crimes and thefts are rampant. In order to stop them ASAP, we are making an attempt so as to re-strengthen the political means." he said.

The meeting of the PPFD was held on 17th December 2024 and a gathering of opinion regarding the expansion of political discussion and negotiation were gained. 

While seeing the delegates of EAOs

Agreements were reached to expand the review plan regarding politics, military, international affairs and economy at the meeting.

The PPDF was carrying out to make the country return to the political path peace and federal democracy, leader of the Information Team of the PPDF U Aung Ne Paing told CNI News.

“Federal democracy is the highest aspiration of all. Military conflicts are more severe at present. We are trying to hear the political voice as able as we can although the political framework is currently narrow."he said.

The PPFD will mainly carry out to control the military conflicts by expanding the political framework as well as to hear the public voice again from their silence a result of the domestic conflicts.

CNI News
22 December 2024

Distributing the letter in Katha Town, in which the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA) would not consider to make friends with the KIA and the NUG, spoke ill of the SNA as well as to make the people misunderstand the SNA, said spokesperson of the SNA. 

The letter was written by those who impersonated the SNA, he said.

" The letter that is spreading online was not written by the SNA. It is unscrupulously being distributed on purpose in order to get the SNA into trouble. The public will be able to estimate who wrote the letter. There are elements that are launching offensives to the SNA. They are making attempts to capture the Shanni region. Because the SNA was collaborating with the SAC, they are fighting against the SNA. They spread propaganda it's not wrong that they are invading the Shanni region. The SNA is an organization that wants democracy and peaceful co-existence with all the nationalities." he said.

The letter was spreading in Katha on 19th December and it was not being distributed by the SNA; those who wrote the letter intended to invade the SNA region as well as to degrade the dignity of Shanni nationalities, said spokesperson.

Although the SNA is carrying out the regional stability and the security of lives and properties of the people, battles are breaking out between the KIA/PDF and the SNA because the KIA/PDF joint forces are attacking the SNA controlled territories.

The SNA was established in July, 1989 and it will gather Tamu, Homalin, Khamti, Katha, Banmauk, Mawlike and Kalay Districts which are included in Sagaing Region as well as Myitkyina, Mohnyin, Mogaung, Bahmo Districts, Karmine and Indawgyi regions and is trying to get Shanni State.