CNI News
3 August 2024

Military and political analysts are reviewing and discussing about why the troops of the United Wa State Party (UWSP/UWSA) entered Lashio where battles were severely breaking out.

The UWSA troops entered Lashio after informing the Myanmar Tatmadaw in advance on 27th July and deployed in some places.

The entry of UWSA forces might be possible to avoid further casualties from both sides and to reduce the damage of the city, Col. Khun Okkar, patron of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO) told CNI News.

" In my opinion, it's likely that Wa intervened to avoid further casualties from both sides. Moreover, because the Wa troops are stationed in the city, air strikes can be reduced. And then, the city isn't damaged anymore. Although a city could be captured, if there are no people in that city, only broken houses will remain, there is no benefit. The city was not destroyed, only the administration changed. The new administration made schools and hospitals better. It could make residents more secure. It is called 'capture' as well. It is not good to capture the city only when it has turned into a big pile of ashes and bricks. So, Wa has maintained to avoid further damages, I think." he said.

At present, battles are severely breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the MNDAA ally joint forces in Lashio.  Wa troops entered Tangyan about 70 miles away from Lashio in multitude on 11th July.

The situation could be complicated if the armed conflict breaking out in northern Shan State spread to the south; organizations concerned needed to sit at the political roundtable, Sao Khun Sai, a person participating in the peace process, told CNI News.

While seeing a damaged building in Lashio

" northern Shan State, southern Shan State and eastern Shan State - there are different situations among them. Although the situations in eastern and southern parts of Shan State are not bad, the situations can change. I'm not sure whether the situations will change into better or worse. As a worse situation, if the conflicts in northern spread to the south and the east, the conditions many be complicated. So, all the stakeholders need to meet and discuss. If all the stakeholders including the UWSA and the RCSS accept that they need to discuss politically, the potential for peace is good." he said.

The UWSA controlled Hopang and Pan Lon which the Three Brotherhood Alliance captured during the first wave of Operation-1027 and the two towns were put under the administration of the UWSA.

The MNDAA force seen in Lashio

Myanmar was in a situation to collapse because of military conflicts.

Moreover, because of economic crisis, manufacturing decline; suspension of trading and damage to businesses, lives of the people were in a hopeless situation, problems should be solved in peaceful ways including political talks, stated the UWSP/UWSP on 30th July.

Moreover, the UWSP/UWSA released it would implement the peace with its own strength.

CNI News
3 August 2024

If the cooperative system which was not successful in Myanmar was reactivated, not only would it be unsuccessful, black market might also cover the entire country, an economic analyst told CNI News.

 According to the current situation of Myanmar, the cooperative system was the most appropriate in carrying out to make the Myanmar's economy develop, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the State Administration Council at the meeting of the Union Government held on 29th July, 2024.

"Myanmar's economic sector is now quite damaged. The SAC might implement the cooperative system without doing thorough research into the effects of the system. The prices of rice, for example, have been designated. But now there has been a shortage of rice supply. I ordered to send some rice to me. But they told me that they had run out of rice because of difficult transportation and so on. In fact, they have a lot of rice. But they don't want to sell it. Even in the current situation, the black market has already grown quite a bit. If the cooperative system is implemented, the black market will cover the whole country." said an economic analyst.

Successive governments implemented various economic systems and according to the current situation of the country, in carrying out to improve the economic sector, the cooperative system was the most appropriate, said chairman of the SAC.

While seeing a cooperative shop

The cooperative system is being used only in the SMEs in other countries and if Myanmar did so, it might be convenient, said economic analysts.

There is no country which uses the cooperative system to lead the economy of the whole country; although communist countries - China and Vietnam implemented the cooperative system, because they didn't succeed, they are using the market economy, an economic analyst told CNI News.
" Politics may be socialist or communist. But the economy is just the market economy. The cooperative is the business in which people with the same desire work together. The people all over the country - they can't have the same desire among them in any way. There two kinds of cooperatives and one is producers cooperative association and the other, the consumer cooperative association. The producers cooperative association is being used in other countries as well. But the consumers cooperative association, depending on the profits it won, give households how much rice or edible oil with quotas. What the association give you might not match with what you need. What it give you the quality might not match with what you want. The system was not successful at all. So, it was broken. I wonder why they want to reactivate the unsuccessful system in the past." he said.

The cooperative enterprise was able to produce only one percent of the Myanmar's GDP and private sector produced 70 percent of the GDP.

CNI News
3 August 2024

There are differences of attitudes and opinion among Myanmar political circles regarding whether it has been a long way to build a federal union.

Armed groups are designating the territories that they have captured as their own ones and giving priority to their own interests rather than to the interests of the union, said some commentators.

The perceptions of the EAOs fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw have changed and compromise should be conducted for the interests of all citizens, member of the Policy Steering Committee of the Arakan National Party (ANP) U Tun Aung Kyaw told CNI News.

" EAOs have changed their perceptions. Rather than building a true federal union, because the positions and attitudes of the EAOs have varied already, a political dialogue that contains international organizations is needed to be held and it depends on the will of stakeholders. As long as they have no mind to compromise for the interests of all citizens, the political problem can't be solved." he said.

There were territorial disputes between the EAOs in some townships, northern Shan State from where the Myanmar Tatmadaw retreated and several battles broke out as well. Some EAOs had the idea that they would designate the territory that they had captured as the one they owned since before and if they ruled without valuing human rights, a long-term war might break out, Sao Khun Sai, a person participating in the peace process told CNI News.

While seeing the government, the Tatmadaw and leaders of EAOs

" Although an EAO takes a territory that it has captured these days, the British expansionists did so. But the English paid respect to the human rights of the countries that they ruled. They didn't cancel the ruling system of Shan chiefs of former times. And you must pay respect to the customs and traditions of the people in the territory you are ruling. You must not violate their human rights. If so, no matter whoever rules the country, it will be a peaceful country. Otherwise, if you rule the country as you like, it's impossible to win a long term peace. A long term war might take place." he said.

Although both the SAC and the NUG that have said that a democratic federal union would be built have not officially announced what kinds of federal unions.

In the same way, EAOs are conducting in different ways regarding establishment of federal democratic union or confederation.

CNI News
3 August 2024

Some foreign countries were providing armed groups with weapons, ammunition, finance, technology, food and medicine, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the State Administration Council.

He said the above at the meeting of the National Defense and Security Council held on 31st July.

They were meeting with political parties and EAOs for the eternal peace in the Union and attitudes and comments from discussions between the two sides had been recorded as the Union Accord and political talks would be conducted, he said.

" Some foreign countries are providing armed insurgents and political dissidents with arms, ammunition, finance, technology, food, medicine and Longevity of armed conflict and administrative support opportunities so as to make Myanmar what they want it to be." he said.

However, he did not express the names of those countries. Currently, armed conflicts are taking place across the country, and the number of the people who had to displace has been over one million while towns, villages and wards are being destroyed.

While the Mandalay PDF is using a drone technology

According to domestic military analysts, the KIA, the TNLA, MNDAA, the AA and the PDF are receiving drone technology, weapons and ammunition from some foreign countries at the battles breaking out in Karen, Rakhine States, northern Shan State, Mandalay and Sagaing Regions.

Therefore, the EAOs and PDFs were able to capture many military camps of the Myanmar Tatmadaw and to control many townships, they pointed out. Moreover, the US and China were using Myanmar as a proxy war, said domestic political and military analysts.

Battles are severely breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and armed groups in Karen, Chin, Rakhine, Kayah States, Sagaing, Magway, Mandalay and Tanintharyi Regions.

CNI News

2 August 2024

Depending on regional security, elections would be firstly held in the constituencies that could be, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing. 

He said that during the meeting (2/2024) of the National Defense and Security Council on 31st July 2024.

" Elections will be held in accordance with the laws of the 2008 Constitution. Depending on regional security, elections will be firstly held in the constituencies that can be held. 
According to the current security conditions, the security of the constituencies where elections cannot be held will be promoted after which elections will be held." said chairman of the SAC.

Only if it was peaceful and stable, would the processes of strengthening multi-party democracy and correct reforms be implemented; so, regarding security, the SAC would continue to speed up what should be done, he added.

While the meeting of the National Defense and Security Council is being held

At present, armed battles are breaking out across the country and because of territorial instabilities, it is impossible to hold elections, pointed out political parties.

As there are territorial stabilities in Ayeyarwady Region, Mandalay Region, Yangon Region and Naypyidaw Union Territory, elections could be held for the first time, estimated political analysts.

Because they would have to walk on the multi-party democratic path which the entire people wanted, they must successfully hold a free and fair multi-party democratic election, said chairman of the SAC. At present, the Union Election Commission has allowed 50 political parties to register.

A general election would be held in 2025, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the SAC.

CNI News

2 August 2024

Although he carried out with a view to holding a general election two years after the state of emergency, he was not able to do so because of insurgents, said Acting President and Commander in Chief of the Defense Services Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing. 

He said the above during the meeting (2/2024) of the National Defense and Security Council(NDSC) that was held on 31st July. 

Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing was sitting in the chair where Acting President sat during the meeting.

And then, the circumstances of the handover in accordance with the 2008 Constitution; road maps were laid down since the State Administration Council took responsibilities of the State and the situations in relation to setting as a goal to hold a free and fair multi-party democratic general election were discussed.

Although the SAC carried out with a view to hold a free and fair multi-party general election two years after announcing the state of emergency, because of insurgents, the situations unable to do so, the conditions of being carrying out to make the country stable; the conditions of being carrying out to improve the national economy while so greedy business people were making efforts to make the national economy decline, which Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing discussed at the meeting.

While the NDSC meeting was being held on 31st July, 2024

Although Acting President Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing said in the past that the election would be held in August, 2023, because the election could not be held, he said that the election would be held in 2025. Census-taking would be conducted from 1st to 15th October, 2024.

After the election was held, the State power would be handed over to the winning party, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing. 

After saying that the NLD was trying to form a government without solving the vote list dispute that took place in the 2020 general election, the Myanmar Tatmadaw led by Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing overthrew the NLD government on 1st February, 2021 and announced the state of emergency.

Although the declaration of the state of emergency was two years long on 1st February, 2023, because the country still was not stable, two times of six month tenure were extended. And then, according to Section-425 of the constitution, another two times of six month tenure were extended and the tenure expired on 31st July, 2024. 

However, because the country has not been stable, the NDSC meeting decided to extend the state of emergency for another six months in accordance with Section-425.

CNI News

2 August 2024

Military analysts are reviewing and discussing in relation to whether a ceasefire could emerge in northern Shan State after the end of July under the China's pressure.

Battles were severely breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the TNLA, the MNDAA, the MDY-PDF, the DPLA joint forces in Kyaukme, Nawnghkio, Lashio, northern Shan State as well as in Momeik, Mogok, Madaya and Sintku, Mandalay Region since 25th June, 2024.

The Palaung State Liberation Front (PSLF/TNLA) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) announced ceasefire for four days. 

The MNDAA announced that it would cease fire unilaterally until the end of July. The six month validity of the SAC expired on 31st July and because the meeting of the National Defense and Security would be held on that day, the situation would be watched, Col-Khun Okkar, patron of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO) told CNI News.

While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing

" The MNDAA announced that it would cease fire on 31st July. But the battles was breaking out during the past days. And at the same time, that day is the day when the SAC's six month tenure will expire. So, what will the SAC do? And will the MNDAA really cease fire? So, 31st July is an important day. So, everyone will have to watch that day." he said.

Although the MNDAA announced that it had ceased fire, it was attacking the military camps and the Northeastern Command in Lashio of the Myanmar Tatmadaw.

Negotiations and compromises should be made to end the conflict, Naing Than Shwe, spokesperson of the Mon Unity Party (MUP) told CNI News.

" It's necessary to negotiate and discuss to end the conflicts. The problem is that the situation has not emerged yet. But we haven't know the government's policy and EAOs and other organizations haven't released any policy statements. So, it's hard to say." he said.

While seeing the MNDAA

There are heavy weapon fires and air strikes during battles between the two sides at present, and civilian casualties, house damages as well as locals are fleeing to safety.

The Chinese government had told the TNLA and the MNDAA three points, they are (1) to cease fire at once, (2) If the two EAOs didn't cease fire, leaders of the two EAOs would be taken action against and (3) if they didn't cease fire, China would sell effective weapons to the Myanmar Tatmadaw, said those close to the SAC and the northern allies.

If the above-mentioned situations were studied, Operation-Shan-Man also might suspend in the end of July. 

However, because not every organization accepts what China said, it was necessary to watch what would happen next, said those close to the organizations.

CNI News

1 August 2024

It would make efforts with its own strength for the peace of Myanmar, reported the United Wa State Army (UWSA) on 30th July, 2024.

Since 2021 when instabilities started in Myanmar, taking its experience and lesson of history, the UWSA decided to adopt a non-aligned policy that wouldn't take part in the military conflict of any organization and wouldn't start a war, said in the statement.

The policy would never change because of various conditions and time and the policy is proper for the interests of all nationalities not only in the Wa region but also in Myanmar, stated the UWSA.

While seeing the statement released by the UWSA

Because of the current military conflict in Myanmar, the entire nation was in a state of collapse and the country was facing economic stagnation, suspension of production, trade suspension and serious damage to various businesses. So, the people were facing a state of hopelessness, said the UWSA.

The Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Arakan Army (AA) and the People's Defense Force joined forces and started Operation-1027 in northern Shan State on 27th October, 2023 and waged battles to capture the military camps of the Myanmar Tatmadaw, towns and cities.

During he operation, the TNLA and the MNDAA attacked and captured Hopang and Pan Lon, and handed them over to the UWSA. And then, the TNLA-MNDAA-PDF joint forces started the second part of Opreation-1027 on 25th June, 2024 have been waging battles to capture the military camps in Lashio, Kyaukme and Nawnghkio, northern Shan State as well as Madaya, Sintku, Mogok and Momeik in Mandalay Region.

While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing meeting with leaders of the UWSA, the NDAA and the SSPP

During that operation, the UWSA took over Tangyan Town from the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the UWSA troops informed the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the MNDAA and entered Lashio and controlled important places on 27th July, 2024.

According to Myanmar political and military analysts, the UWSA was behind the joint operations waged by the TNLA, MNDAA, AA and PDF joint forces and the UWSA was providing the joint forces with weapons.

The UWSA has taken the role of chairman of the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC) that contains the UWSA, the TNLA, the MNDAA, the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA).

So, the UWSA is in a position to intervene and negotiate for the emergence of peace talks between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the EAOs.

CNI News

1 August 2024

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army released a statement urging the people and organizations to protect the interests of Chinese citizens and Chinese companies including Chinese investments, reported the MNDAA on 30th July, 2024. 

The military commission of the MNDAA released to protect all the foreign investments, to prevent and maintain losses of Chinese investments as much as possible as well as to protect lives and properties of the public and foreigners.

Actions that may affect investment and employees of the Chinese governments should be prevented and if that the Chinese interests were affected was found, the situation should be presented to the military committee of the MNDAA in time. 

Moreover, those who found them should get in touch with the relevant departments of the Chinese government at once, said in the statement.

"To rescue the Chinese citizens trapped in the battlefield in time, and if injured Chinese citizens or the Chinese citizens whose companies are being attacked are found, they should be helped or rescued" said in the statement.

While seeing the statement released by the MNDAA

China has a lot of investments in the jade, gold and copper mining activities, the Kyauk Phyu Deep Water Port Project, the Gas Pipe Line Project, Electric Power Generation Project, timber extraction, oil drilling industry, metal mining and agricultural industry.

In the same way, China is exporting construction materials, electronics, consumer goods and automobiles. 

In collaboration with the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), the National Unity Government (NUG), the People's Defense Force (PDF) and the Local People's Defense Force (LPDF), the MNDAA has been launching offensives to capture Lashio City and to seize control of the Northeastern Command of the Tatmadaw since 25th June, 2024.

During the battles, Chinese citizens and Chinese people were killed or injured. Moreover, the projects where the Chinese government has invested has been suspended or damaged.

The MNDAA's statement seemed to prove that it was fighting for the Chinese interests without fighting for the Spring Revolution, pointed out Myanmar politic and military analysts.