CNI News

18 December 2024

Because the discussions will be held in Thailand in order that armed conflicts and political crises in Myanmar can be overcome, people local and abroad are keeping a close watch on whether the discussion could find an answer or not. 

The two meetings about Myanmar issue will be held in Thailand on 19th and 20th December. 

The talks in Thailand will lead to many positive outcomes, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News.

" It's related to the security issue among the bordering countries. Frankly speaking, it's been a Regional Security issue. Although there are security issues and instabilities between the two countries, they can affect the regional security. So, because the discussion about them will be held. We must welcome this. I hope we can find an answer from the discussions. Surely, the talks in Thailand will lead to many positive outcomes." he said.

While seeing Thai PM Paetongtarn and chairman of the SAC in China

The Myanmar delegation led by FM U Than Swe will attend the discussions that will be held in Thailand. 

The meeting on cross-border crimes and security will be held on 19th December and the meeting of the FMs will be held on 20th December. Ministers and deputy ministers from China, India, Bangladesh and Laos will attend the two meetings.

It would not be easy to solve the problems and issues taking place on the Myanmar-Thailand border through the meetings, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.

While seeing Thai PM Paetongtarn

" A new problem has emerged between Thailand and Myanmar. The “Wa” forces have invaded the Thai border and set up military bases. Thailand has demanded the Wa forces to retreat from the military bases. And the problems at the Thai border that need to be resolved regularly will be discussed. But it's not easy to solve them. The problems that exist along the Thai-Myanmar border include human trafficking and drug trafficking. Although there are actions and arrests, because people who are having difficulty living within Myanmar, it's difficult to solve it." he said.

Since Thailand has offered that would host informal meetings in order to find an answer the crises that emerged after 2012 when the Myanmar Tatmadaw took the power, the meetings arose.

In the same way, Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the SAC and the Thai PM Paetongtarn met in Kunming, China and discussed about the Myanmar issue and the Thai PM said that Thailand would help the peace process of Myanmar.

CNI News

18 December 2024

Foreign Minister of the State Administration Council, U Than Swe will attend two discussions about the Myanmar issue that will be held in Thailand this month, said Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun, leader of the Information Team of the SAC. 

Thailand will host two talks on Myanmar on 19th and 20th December. 

" The meeting of Myanmar and its neighboring countries that will be held in Thailand on 19th December 2024 will be attended by the Myanmar delegation led by FM U Than Swe." said Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun.

The two talks will be attended by China, Laos, Thailand, India and Bangladesh. 

" Mainly, the matters relating to border affairs and cooperation for anti-cross-border crimes," said Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun.

Because Myanmar is facing military and political crises and battles are breaking out across the country, its neighboring countries are also finding it difficult. 

So, in order to overcome the Myanmar crises, its neighboring countries will find an answer by holding two meetings.

In the same way, Thai PM Paetongtarn and chairman of the SAC Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing met and discussed the Myanmar issue in Kunming, China on 7th November 2024.

CNI News

18 December 2024

If wars and armed conflicts occurring around the world today were analyzed, air and space powers were key to winning wars, said Sr-Gen Min Aung at the 77th anniversary celebration of the establishment of the Air Force and the cere mony for firstly deployed war planes on 15th December 2024.

" In modern times, if wars and armed conflicts are analyzed, air force and space power are playing an important to winning the war." said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

Superior air power could dominate, control, and annihilate the enemy and Superior air power could dominate, control, and defeat the enemy, and can further enhance the morale and combat capabilities of their own forces. 

While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing with an MTX-1B produced by the Tatmadaw (air)

The Tatmadaw (Air Force) must be carrying out in order to improve its capabilities adaptably in acordance with the last developments, he said. 

MTX-1A and MTX-1B which are both reconnaissance aircrafts produced by the Tatmadaw (air) were shown at the ceremony for the first deployment of war planes.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw mainly depends on the air strikes in the battles between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and armed groups taking place across the country. 

However, the Myanmar Tatmadaw has lost control of a lot of its territories and military camps.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw is attacking mainly depending on the air strikes while armed groups are mainly using drones as their air strikes.

CNI News

17 December 2024

The Myanmar Tatmadaw was not encouraging in the battles against EAOs across the country and it was difficult to estimate what the Myanmar Tatmadaw's strategy regarding the military was, military and political analysts told CNI News. 

The Myanmar Tatmadaw which has taken the responsibility of the State was not encouraging in the current battles; it was hard to say which part the Myanmar Tatmadaw was leading to, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News.

"The Myanmar Tatmadaw which has taken the leadership responsibility is not encouraging in some battles. But it's early to say decisively the potential of victory or defeat regarding the war taking place in the entire country. It's a little difficult to estimate what the strategy the SAC has laid down is. We don't have enough data to say which part it's leading to. We'll need to watch it. For the time being, the SAC doesn't have the upperhand on the Rankine front." he said.

While seeing Maj-Gen Tun Myat Naing

If wars and armed conflicts occurring around the world today were analyzed, air and space powers were key to winning wars, said Sr-Gen Min Aung at the ceremony of firstly deployed war planes on 15th December 2024.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw is mainly dependent on air strikes in the battles breaking out across the country. 

The Arakna Army (AA) was severely launching offensives in order to capture Ann and Gwa Towns and that the Myanmar military's performance has also declined has proved, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, an NCA signatory, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

" The Myanmar Tatmadaw was powerful ten years ago and had the upper hand in the ethnic areas. But now EAOs have had the upper hand on the Myanmar Tatmadaw. That the AA has the upper hand is because the AA's performance becomes higher while the Tatmadaw's performance becomes lower." he said.

While seeing the Air Force of the Myanmar Tatmadaw

While battles are severely breaking out in north Shan State, due to China's brokered mediation, the TNLA expressed that it was ready to meet and discuss with the Myanmar Tatmadaw. 

After the MNDAA announced the unilateral ceasefire, the MNDAA and the SAC delegation led by Lt-Gen Ko Ko Oo discussed it in Kunming, China on 15th December. 

Moreover, the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the KIO discussed the issue.

However, the battles between the AA and the SAC are more severely taking place and the AA has been able to capture 13 townships in Rakhine State.

The AA could not demand its desire through armed means and the conflicts could be solved through peaceful means at the political roundtable only, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing in the letter sent to mark the 50th anniversary celebration of Rakhine State Day that fell on 15th December.

CNI News

17 December 2024

Khawng Yi (ethnic traditional intoxicant brew) was being used as medicine if children had fever in the Naga Self-Administered Region because the number of health staff was not enough although there are rural clinics there, chairman of the Naga National Party (NNP) U Shu Maung told CNI News. 

Many patients there lost their lives because of difficult transportation in the region and locals' lack of health knowledge.

As there are no health staff in the rural clinics in the Naga region, although some locals who could spend money went to Homalin and Khamti Towns in Sagaing Region to receive medical treatment in the past, because of higher cost at present, they also couldn't go to the towns any more, said U Shu Maung.

" Parents in some villages make their children drink Khawng Yi if Paracetamol isn't available. The child is drunk, drowsy, and then fall asleep. When he wakes up, he feels a little refreshed. He seems to have recovered. Some parents buy Paracetamol. Some parents who can afford it went to Khamti or Homalin or Mandalay. But as the cost is higher, most people can't go there anymore." he said.

Although most villages in Nanyun Township have rural clinics, because there are not enough health staff, locals are finding it difficult for their health. 

While seeing the Naga region

It is getting worse in the current political situation, said a local to CNI News.

" Nanyun has the township hospital. There is a circuit hospital in Pan Saung as well. But there are not enough health staff. There is a doctor or two. There are also a lot of medicine and facility requirements in the hospital. Meanwhile, when patients are serious, there are challenges.  In the current situation of the country, it's getting worse." he said.

Health staff from Yangon, Mandalay and other cities who serve a distant Naga region are few. So, the government should make a plan to teach Naga nationalities medical education, chairman of the Naga National Party (NNP) told CNI News.

" Nursing training or something like this should be given to those who have passed the matriculation from the Naga region. A medical university should be built for more qualified Naga youths. In this way, local Naga doctors and nurses will emerge. Because they are Naga people, they will certainly serve in the Naga region, I believe. 10 or 20 or 30 years later, the current problem will be no more." he said.

The NLD government made a plan to build rural clinics in the Naga region and the construction of clinics were completed in 2022.

However, because health staff did not come to the clinics, locals have to go to towns or cities to receive the medical treatment.

CNI News

16 December 2024

According to the current political situations of Myanmar, businesses could improve in 2025, said businessmen. 

Efforts are being made to hold a general election in 2025 and some EAOs in northern Shan State where battles are breaking out are paving the way for ceasefire and peace talks, there could be territorial stabilities there, they pointed out.

Because there is a potential for a decrease in armed conflicts in Myanmar, business activities will improve, U Aung Pyae Sone, an economic commentator, told CNI News.

While seeing exports (Naung Naung)

" The country has lagged far behind amid ideological differences for over 3 years. The government found it difficult while the people had a nightmare as well. The nightmare will come to an end in 2024 and the country will be better in 2025. Mainly, it's necessary to have peace and stability to improve the economy with new ideas and good cooperation. Several EAOs have expressed that they will discuss. After meeting and discussing with a really positive attitude without secession, if we can carry it out, 2025 will be a constructive year. Moreover, because plans are being made to hold a general election. After the election, if the Tatmadaw can arrange to make a government that the people have really wanted, the country will be better, I consider." he said

However, Myanmar's economy would not be encouraging because of internal conflict, natural disaster and scarcity of basic commodities, released the World Bank on 11th December.

According to the Myanmar Economic Monitoring Report, the economic forecast for March, 2025 is minus 1 percent.

While seeing somewhere inside Bogyoke Market

Strategic thinking was needed to improve Myanmar's economy, U Htay Aung Kyi, a banking expert, told CNI News.

" Businessmen speak according to their political views. If the perspective is different, the answer is different. I want there to be strategic thinking. It's right that the election will be held. But the country can't go like this. I accept the election as a political exit. But a strategic thinking is needed." he said.

Myanmar's economy did not improve in 2024 and almost all the border trades were suspended; because the trade by sea only was relied on, import and export industries did not improve as expected.

As there are considerations that the political situation may re-improve due to the election, foreign investments have increased in some sectors mainly fuel oil, EVs and garment, according to businessmen.

CNI News

16 December 2024

Although China is obviously providing political assistance to the State Administration Council (SAC) in order that armed conflicts taking place in Myanmar could be solved, it is useless if the SAC cannot utilize it, military and political commentators told CNI News. 

China is putting pressure on EAOs to stop waging battles because battles are severely breaking out in the territories within its reach.

If the SAC could not make proper use of the China's assistance timely, the assistance would be useless, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News.

" It depends on how the SAC will utilize the China's assistance. If the SAC could utilize it timely, it will produce good results, I think. Otherwise, the assistance will be useless if the SAC cannot make proper use of it. If the assistance from a foreign country can be utilized timely, it could produce a lot of good results." he said.

While Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and Chinese PM Li Chang were meeting

Although the SAC has received diplomatic support and weapon technologies from China, because it is facing economic and financial crises, it won't be able to carry out to win good results, said Zachary Abuza, an international columnist.

Because the SAC can control only the 40 percent of the area of the country at present, it was trying hard to regain control of territories it had lost before the election, it didn't succeed, he said. 

That China put pressure on the MNDAA and the TNLA in northern Shan State did work.

Because China urged the MNDAA, the MNDAA announced the unilateral ceasefire on 4th December and the TNLA announced that it would discuss peace with the SAC as well.

The person giving the help needs to know how to help, and the person receiving the help also needs to know how to use it, U Khun Sai who is taking part in the peace process told CNI News.

During the meeting between China and Myanmar

" If the recipient cannot use the help, it will be useless. U Than Myint Oo, a scholar, had said that 'A lot of the help we get is in the form of, "You do this, we'll help you if you do that." What we want is, we will do that. Please help us for that. Otherwise, it won't be beneficial to both sides." he said.

While battles were severely taking place in Bahmo and Mansi Towns, Kachin State, the delegation led by General N'Ban La, leader of the KIO/KIA went to China and discussed with the Chinese authorities.

The discussion was likely because China wanted to put pressure on the KIA to stop battles as well as to reopen the border gates to import rare earth from Kachin State, considered political commentators. 

China said that it didn't want to see the chaos in Myanmar and it would help the election and the peace process.

CNI News

16 December 2024

The Arakan Army (AA) would not be able to solve the refugee problem on the Myanmar-Bangladesh border, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News. 

The AA was able to capture the Border Guard Police Unit-5 on 5th December and had been able to seize control of the entire Maungdaw Town, released the AA on 10th December 2024.

So, because the AA has already controlled the Myanmar-Bangladesh border on the Myanmar side, questions regarding how the bilateral refugee problem will be solved has emerged. 

It was necessary for the Bangladeshi government to take the AA into account in solving the border refugee problem as well as to talk with the AA, expressed Bangladesh.

While seeing a refugee camp in Cox Bazaar District, Bangladesh

If the Myanmar-Bangladesh border areas were not under the control of the Myanmar government, Bangladesh would suffer from the refugee problem more and the AA was not in a situation that could solve the border refugee problem, chairman of the AFP, Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News.

" If the refugee problem is solved, the two governments probably would be able to solve. As soon as the Myanmar government can't control the border region, Bangladesh will suffer the refugee problem more. There can't be a situation in which the negotiation with the AA can be conducted in the international law. The AA can't solve the refugee problem at all. It has anything to do with the recognition of international organizations. The AA is not a country. Because the AA is able to negotiate with the current government, if the AA becomes like the UWSA and Myla, in collaboration with international organizations, the government, the AA and the Bangladeshi government might be able to negotiate. And Bengali people have their armed groups such as the RSO and the ARSA for their liberation. So, confrontations have emerged." he said.

The AA launched offensive to Maungdaw Town on the Bangladeshi border starting from 13th November 2023 and battles broke out between the AA and Bengali armed groups - the ARSA, the RSO and the ARA.

While seeing the AA force

He hoped that leaders of the AA would solve the issue of Rakhine State in a constructive way, chairman of the Pa-O National Federal Council, Khun Myint Tun told CNI News.

" In my opinion, leaders of the AA are tackling these issues only after extensive consideration. So, they will carry out in constructive approaches, I hope." he said.

After Maungdaw has been under the control of the AA, the AA might build administrative mechanisms there, but considerations could not be made that the war has ended; the Tatmadaw could launch offensives, said political commentators.

Battles are severely taking place between the Tatmadaw and the AA in Ann where the West Command is located, Taung Goat and Gwa townships. Battles are severely taking place between the Tatmadaw and the AA in Rakhine State and many locals have fled to safety. 

Due to the battles, houses, schools, monasteries, religious schools, bazaars, roads, bridges were damaged while locals are facing shortages of food, medicine and fuel oil. Moreover, the Bengali issue which took place in 2007 cannot be solved up to now.

CNI News

16 December 2024

The self-determination which EAOs are demanding was so dangerous that secessions from the country could arise, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News. 

It was necessary to clearly understand the meaning of the term "right to self-determination" and to what extent it would be imposed; according to the current situation of Myanmar, if the right to self-determination was granted, it would make the secession path emerge, he said.

" There are two parts here. There were always problems during peace talks. As soon as right to self-determination is enacted, they have been on the path of secession. According to the current situation, it's very likely to secede. Self-administration means self-governing your own region through Region or State level. It's no problem. If they have the right to enact laws in parallel with the 2008 Constitution, there is a huge problem. So, self-determination has a lot of problems. It's necessary to know clearly how the term ' right to self-determination' will be imposed. Otherwise, secessions from the country can arise." said U Thein Tun Oo.

Ethnic armed groups pose for photos after the conference

When efforts were made to sign a non-secession agreement in the previous dialogues, there were some who refused to sign it, pointed out political commentators. 

But at present, some EAOs said that they wouldn't secede from the country to establish new countries in their statements.

In the history of revolutions in the past, only secession was called for and in the current revolution, EAOs were fighting for the right to self-administration, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs analyst told CNI News.

" Some people said that the country could be torn apart, which is not correct kind of. Now any organization doesn't demand that they will secede. In the past, Kachin and Karen demanded they would secede. They wanted to build new countries. But now, they are demanding the right to self-determination. They say they are fighting for the right to self-determination." she said.

While EAOs were holding a conference

Because the Myanmar Tatmadaw was rapidly losing many remote areas across the country to revolutionary forces, central control is almost certain to fragment, released the International Crisis Group (ICG) on 30th May 2023. 

This process of separation is not conducive to the establishment of a federal union, but a challenge only, according to the ICG.

There are two kinds of self-determination and one is external self-determination that allows secession and the other, internal self-determination that doesn't allow secession; the self-determination that is currently being discussed is internal self-determination; the 2008 constitution doesn't allow secession, according to those who are participating in the peace process.