CNI News

5 February 2025

Political parties must make necessary preparations for the election, said Chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC), Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing. He said the above at the Work Coordination Meeting of the Union Government that was held on 3rd February 2025.

The SAC would make efforts to ensure broad participation of representatives of all social classes in the Hluttaws that emerged after the general election, said Chairman of the SAC.
 
" Political parties must make necessary preparations, and security and stability would be needed so that election campaigns could be conducted," said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

While seeing Region and State chief ministers

He did not say exactly what necessary preparations meant what issues. The government must systematically calculate the issues that need to be prepared in advance to successfully hold the election and act in accordance with the laws; State and Region chief ministers and officials needed to study the laws related to elections in detail; and political parties must have made necessary preparations, he said.

Elections for the three Hluttaw - Pyithu Hluttaw, Amyotha Hluttaw and Region/State Hluttaw must be conducted in accordance with the law, said Chairman of the SAC.

A general election would be held in 2025 and the State power would be handed over to the winning party, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing. However, battles are breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and armed elements across the country and the rule of law is weak in the cities and stability is deteriorating.

CNI News

4 February 2025

The State Administration Council (SAC) cannot grant territories to EAOs which attacked and captured territories under the 2008 Constitution, Director of the Thayninga Institute for Startegy Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News. 

Political parties and political observers held a seminar in Yangon on February 2, 2025 under the title of  the State crisis and roles of government, citizens and political parties.

He answered the above to the question by CNI News at the meeting regarding the video footage that has been circulating from the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance (MNDAA).

" Because the SAC has kept the power under the 2008 Constitution, it cannot override the constitution. The video in question was released by one side (MNDAA) and is it a propaganda or an official agreement? It's like drawing conclusions based on one piece of information. They have released it during a temporary ceasefire. The SAC hasn't released it officially. So, we cannot draw any conclusions. What factors will determine whether or not the territory was given. The data is incomplete, and we can't say whether it's possible or not." he said.

The MNDAA must retreat from Lashio and the Myanmar government designated four districts - Kutkai, Theinni, Kunlong and Laukkai as Special Region - 1 and self-administration has been officially granted to the MNDAA, said an administrative official from the MNDAA at the Chinese New Year celebration in the video clip which has been circulating on the social media.

While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing

The SAC could not grant territories to EAOs under the 2008 Constitution; if it wanted to grant territories, it must stage a coup d'état after abolishing the 2008 Constitution; he didn't think Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing would do so, said U Thein Tun Oo.

" There is a possibility. If Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing wants to grant territories to EAOs, he must abolish the 2008 Constitution and stage a coup d'état. But I don't think he will do so. If he granted territories, he had made a big mistake. Later, when the data becomes available, review probably will be out." said U Thein Tun Oo.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw and the MNDAA reached a temporary ceasefire agreement because of China's mediation, said the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Miss Mao Ning at the regular press conference on 20th January 2025.

After a temporary ceasefire agreement was reached between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the MNDAA, A video footage went viral claiming that 4 districts have been designated as Special Region (1) and there were also reports that the Kokang troops would withdraw in groups.

Whether the designation of the area as a Special Region (1) is granted under the 2008 Constitution or not, questions are being raised among military and political observers.

At present, the MNDAA has seized control of Chin Shwe Haw, Laukkai, Kyukote, Mong Ko, Theinni, Phaungsai and Kunlong Towns, where are China-Myanmar border trade posts including the Northeast Command of the Myanmar Tatmadaw and Lashio City in northern Shan State.

CNI News

4 February 2025

China could take part in Myanmar's domestic affairs more than the current period, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs analyst, told CNI News. 

China was carrying out to make a great economic market arise in collaboration with the ASEAN countries before western countries could take part in it and because China is trying to gain a good image that it is carrying out the global peace as able as it can, it could probably take part in Myanmar's domestic affairs more than the current period, she said.

" China is trying hard in order to make a great economic market arise in Asia in collaboration with the ASEAN countries before western countries can take part in it. So, China wants Myanmar's civil war to end as soon as possible. China is trying to make Myanmar participate in the great market. China seems to continue  trying it. It depends on the discussions between the armed groups and the military council. China is negotiating everything like this. Not only in Myanmar but also in the Middle East and Ukraine. If things go wrong in the world, it could lead to World War III. If there is a third world war, it could result in a nuclear war. The whole world could suffer. It is trying to create the image that it is doing its best for world peace. So, China could take part in Myanmar's domestic affairs more than the current period." said Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw.

Because Myanmar has an exit to the Bay of Bengal for China, China would intervene in Myanmar's domestic affairs as much as it could, pointed out military and political analysts. 

While seeing Chinese FM Wang Yi and Sr-Gen Than Shwe (Retired)

So, it wants to hold the election ASAP and is brokering to make dialogues arise. Because it could take more time if dialogues were held, There are suggestions to take a risk by holding an election, U Khun Sai who is taking part in the peace process, told CNI News.

" Myanmar people have been suffering during the state of emergency for four years. They will suffer for long if the discussions are conducted. So, there are suggestions that a risk should be taken by holding an election. If the election was held, a person alone could not maintain three powers and there would be distribution of power. And then, there might be more opportunities to create what we want, which some have urged." said U Khun Sai.

At present, the State Administration Council has extended the state of emergency for another six months. Therefore, the international community is watching to see if elections can be held within the next six months and so are military and political analysts.

In this context, they are also watching to see how China will further intervene for the ability to hold the election. At present, China is trying to stop the fighting and promote peace talks between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the Northern Alliance (TNLA-AA-MNDAA).

CNI News

1 February 2025

Although China could only directly intervene in the northern ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and influence on them, it was not easy for China to directly intervene in the southern EAOs, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News. 

Although China was putting pressure, since the Northern Alliance (AA,TNLA,MNDAA) has already taken the military lead, although dialogues or ceasefire could be conducted between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and three northern allies, it wouldn't be likely for southern EAOs to do so, he said.

" China has no its influence on southern EAOs because Thailand bordering southern part of Myanmar and southern EAOs are pro-American elements. They don't like China so much. It's not easy for China to intervene in the southern part of Myanmar. According to the current situation of Myanmar, it's impossible to meet and discuss because the military council doesn't stop terrorism. Northern EAOs especially the MNDAA had to cease fire unavoidably because of China's pressure and moreover because the MNDAA has taken the military lead. It's impossible to do so in the southern part." said U Than Soe Naing.

While seeing leaders from the Northern Alliance

China has made attempts to end armed conflicts on the Myanmar side bordering China and it met and discussed with the northern three brotherhood alliance (AA,TNLA,MNDAA). 

Moreover, China is putting pressure to implement peace talks between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the three brotherhood alliance. 

As a result,  three northern allies released their statements separately to meet and discuss with Myanmar Tatmadaw.

The MNDAA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw met and discussed in December 2024 and in January 2025. 

And then, a temporary ceasefire agreement was reached between the two sides.

While seeing Chinese FM Wang Yi and Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the SAC

However, China only announced the agreement and the two sides concerned did not. In this way, China's intervention obviously could be seen.

Although China could not directly influence on southern EAOs, it could indirectly through Thailand, U Khun Sai who is taking part in the peace process, told CNI News.

" Regarding the ceasefire agreement between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the MNDAA, relevant EAOs didn't announce the agreement. China only announced it. So, in this case, China's intervention looks bigger. It's hard to say about the TNLA because the discussion between the TNLA and China started not long ago. Southern EAOs have closer relations with Thailand. So, if China wants to influence on these EAOs, it can directly deal with them or through Thailand." said U Khun Sai.

In southern Myanmar, armed groups such as Karenni, Karen, Mon, and Rakhine are also active, as are PDF.

CNI News

1 February 2025

She didn't encourage that the National Unity Government would capture towns and cities, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs commentator, told CNI News. 

Proclaiming that the NUG would take Mandalay from the Myanmar Tatmadaw was not just talk, but would put it into practice, said Nay Phone Latt, spokesperson of the NUG PM Office at the campaigne of 'The wave that will go home, Ayeyarwady Region'. 

As the NUG, Mandalay should be surrounded and only after the surrounding area was systematically captured, should it gradually advance, said Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw.

While seeing the NUG's PM Mahn Win Khine Than and PDF comrades

" The Myanmar Tatmadaw lost control of Mandalay in 1950-51. At that time, the Burma Communist Party and the Pyithu Yebaw joint forces attacked the city. Now, if the NUG and its allies systematically attacked Mandalay at the speed of Operation 1027, they would be able to capture it. I don't want to encourage captures of towns and cities. But the NUG has to do what donors like, I think. Donors will be pleased only if the NUG and its allies can capture cities, I think. But since we are making a revolution to replace one system with another, a big target shouldn't have been laid down. After surrounding Mandalay and systematically securing the surrounding area, it would be better to advance gradually, I think. Look at Bhamo for example. Just circle around it and then slowly advance. It would be better to do so, I think." said Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw.

The NUG was making preparations to capture Mandalay without damaging it and the NUG had prepared for Pyin Oo Lwin as well, said the NUG's Minister for Health and Education Dr. Zaw Wai Soe in September 2024.

Once an organization was formed, it was often a matter of giving motivational speeches, but it was difficult to put them into practice on the ground; proclaiming that the NUG would capture Mandalay was impossible in practice, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News.

While seeing the NUG's Defense Minister U Yi Mon and PDF comrades

" They said a lot about what they would achieve in which years. Compare those things with the actual situation to see if they actually happen. It's always obvious. Once a group has formed, it is common to say things like this to motivate its supporters. It's very difficult to become true as they say. This time, there is no reason  to put it into practice." said U Thein Tun Oo.

Although the NUG has over 300 battalions and over 200 defense units, they still are unable to fight effectively. 

So, There has been no organization that meets the demands of the actual struggle inside the military elements led by the NUG, pointed out military and political analysts. 

At present, EAOs and the NUG have seized control of 144 townships, released the NUG's Ministry of Defense on 4th January 2025.

CNI News

1 February 2025

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the People's Defense Force (PDF) are jointly launching offensives against the Myanmar Tatmadaw to capture Banmauk Town in Sagaing Region, adjacent to Kachin State and building up military strength, according to locals. 

The KIA-PDF joint forces have been launching an offensive against the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA) in Kyaungle, Pinhinkha, Hsettaw and Nayaka Villages near Banmauk since 27th January 2025.

Battles are severely breaking out between the two sides. 

While seeing the map based on Banmauk

Around 600 KIA-PDF forces operating in Homalin and Narmaw in Homalin Township were on their way to reinforce the offensive to capture Bham Mauk, said locals and revolutionary forces.

Banmauk is a town of great military strategic importance and It is also a commercial market for timber smugglers. 

At present, the KIA/PDF joint forces are launching an offensive to capture Banmauk and at the same time they are launching an offensive to capture Inndaw Town near Banmauk.

CNI News

1 February  2025

The State Administration Council has extended the state of emergency for another six months because stability and peace was still needed, announced at the meeting of the National Defense and Security Council. 

The SAC convened a meeting of the Defense Security Council on January 31, 2025, a day ahead of its 4th year in office, and the meeting discussed whether to extend the emergency period for another six months and decided to extend the state of emergency for another six months.

"There are still more tasks to be done to hold the general election successfully. Especially for a free and fair election, stability and peace is still needed. So, I present to extend the term of service for another 6 months to continue to meet the needs at a rapid pace" said Acting President Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

And then, members of the NDSC decided to extend the state of emergency for another six months. 

The Myanmar Tatmadaw took the State power on 1st February 2021 after overthrowing the NLD government, saying the National League for Democracy (NLD) was trying to form a government without solving the vote list dispute in the 2020 general election.

And then, the State Administration Council was formed and ruled the country. 

However, armed elements and democratic activists are making attempts to overthrow the SAC. currently, battles are severely breaking out across the country and the Myanmar Tatmadaw has lost control of several hundreds of its military camps and over 90 townships including the Northeast Command and the West Command.

Meanwhile, a general election would be held in 2025 and the State power would be handed over to the winning party, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the SAC. 

On the other hand, armed revolutionary forces have said that they would destroy the election without fail.

CNI News

1 February 2025

Although the US has suspended its international aids, China's influence over Myanmar politics could not be further increased, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News. 

The Donald Trump government has suspended its international aids for almost all development projects for 90 days because the expenditures for the projects will be reviewed.

The grants of the US international development agency (USAID) for Myanmar's news media businesses, education, health, humanity and refugees will be suspended as well.

Although the suspension of US aid projects could cause more serious harm to the public, there was no reason why China's influence over Myanmar politics could not be further increased, said U Than Soe Naing.

While Chinese President was being welcomed during his visit to Myanmar

" Because the US has suspended its international aids for three months, even young people who are in school are in a lot of trouble. In the same way, Myanmar refugee camps may also face food shortages. Our people have lost the opportunities that the US has given. But by reason of that, there is no reason why China's intervention will get worse because the whole country is waging the Spring Revolution. In any case, as the people are defending China's project from going ahead, the situation couldn't get any worse." he said.

The US, The country that provides the most development assistance to foreign countries in the world, announced that it has suspended all currently provided aids and any more of aids that had been planned except for its military aids to Israel and Egypt.

Because the US has suspended its aids to the International Rescue Committee (IRC) for 90 days, the health services in the refugee camps on the Myanmar-Thailand border have been suspended. And then, The Thai government would provide aids to the refugee camps, said Somsak Thepsutin, Thai Public Health Minister.

While seeing the children in a refugee camp

The US has the policy of its own and the policy was not related to the Chinese influence over Myanmar; China would do anything for its own interests, U Kyi Myint, a political commentator, told CNI News. 

" Th US policy (relating to the suspension of its international aids) is not related to Chinese influence over Myanmar. The US has the policy of its own. Trump seems like he doesn't care about anyone. But we shouldn't put blame on the US government. The current military government is also responsible. It recruits by force and arrests people with Section 505A. So, people have to flee to safety. China will do anything for its own interests." said U Kyi Myint.

Although the US government has suspended its aids which are being provided to other countries, As an exception, emergency sympathetic assistance would be allowed, said the US FM Marco Rubio.

CNI News

31 January 2025

The three northern ally groups (TNLA-MNDAA-AA) are no longer holding joint meetings and discussions as they used to and it is unusual for each group to hold separate meetings and issue statements, which military and political analysts are considering and discussing.

That situation was unique and except for the MNDAA that discussed ceasefire with the Myanmar Tatmadaw, it was questionable what China had known about other armed organizations, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News.

“The Northern Alliance is made up of the MNDAA, the TNLA and the AA. This time, the MNDAA alone discussed the ceasefire. So, what has China known about the two remaining groups? Can the SAC discuss with them? It must be watched. In the past, statements were issued in the name of the Northern Alliance. But now they issue statements separately. It is an unusual point." said U Thein Tun Oo.

The MNDAA, the TNLA and the AA launched Operation-1027 together and were able to capture many territories including Lashio and Laukkai. Each of the northern alliance waged battles in the region concerned and was able to capture territories. So, statements regarding political dialogue were individually issued, not as the Northern Alliance.

Doing like this was possible because of different region or because the SAC could not discuss with those three groups at the same time, it discussed with them separately, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs, told CNI.

While seeing the leader of the MNDAA and Lt-Gen Ko Ko Oo from the Myanmar Tatmadaw

" Because of regionally difference, they have to issue statements separately, I think. Because the SAC refuses to meet the three northern allies at the same time, it meet with the three groups separately, I heard. The places and levels they have gained are different. They will work together on the same things, and separate the different things. With this policy, when they carry out, they are strengthening their administration in their regions, I think. That's why they issue statements separately, I think." said Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw.

The AA started its military operations in Rakhine State on 13th November 2023 over two weeks later than Operation-1027 was launched. And then the AA has captured 14 townships and the West Command of the Myanmar Tatmadaw. According to the Haigen Agreement resulted from third meeting between the Northern Alliance and the Myanmar Tatmadaw held in China with China's mediation, a ceasefire agreement was reached in northern Shan State and they started a temporary ceasefire at 9:00 p.m. on 11th January 2024.

However, because battles resumed between the TNLA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw in June, the agreement was broken. At present, the MNDAA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw have ceased fire temporarily. Negotiations reportedly are being conducted to hold discussions between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the TNLA/the AA.