CNI News

30 January 2025

Instead of meeting with all the EAOs at the same time, the State Administration Council (SAC) probably would meet informally with EAOs separately, military and political analysts told CNI News. 

The SAC has already met with the MNDAA twice and a temporary ceasefire agreement has been reached between the two sides. The MNDAA was the origin of the dialogue and if the SAC had  already discussed with all three northern allies, it would have been the opening of the dialogue, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, an NCA signatory, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

" The discussion between the SAC and the MNDAA is the beginning of the dialogue. Later, if the SAC met with the two remaining northern allies - the TNLA and the AA, it would be the opening of the dialogue. If the UWSA, the NDAA and the SSPP are invited to discuss, they will surely come. And then, the 7 NCA signatories are ready to make a dialogue. Moreover, there are 7 NCA signatories that stand with the three northern allies. They can take part in the dialogue as well. 13 or 14 organizations could meet with the SAC informally." said Col. Khun Okkar.

While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the SAC and chairman of the RCSS

Although China had already met with three northern allies by the end of 2024, the SAC met only with the MNDAA. However, the SAC could meet with the TNLA in February, 2025 although the TNLA seemed to want to prolong, considering some people.

The reason why the TNLA wanted to prolong the discussion was because the MNDAA and the AA had already captured military commands of the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the TNLA had not captured any military command of the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the TNLA wanted to wage battles, pointed out some people. 

Later, because the objectives of ethnic armed groups are different, according to the alliance formation , it was not easy to hold an all-inclusive dialogue, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News.

While the 8th anniversary celebration of the NCA was being held

" It's likely that the SAC will meet with armed organizations separately, but it's not easy to discuss that the SAC will meet with an alliance or hold an all-inclusive dialogue because real ambitions of ethnic armed groups have emerged now. Ethnic armed groups are walking on different paths. The SAC probably might meet with ethnic armed groups separately. If so, what kind of negotiation will be conducted? We'll have to watch it, I think." said U Thein Tun Oo.

Planning for elections should not be a priority while armed conflicts are escalating and a ceasefire should be conducted first, which ASEAN countries has urged the SAC. If the election was held first, problems may be more complicated, pointed out military and political analysts.

CNI News

30 January 2025

Military and political analysts are considering differently up to where the Arakan Army (AA) will expand its military activities. 

The AA released on 27th January 2025 that it had captured the Moe Hti Taung military camp of the Myanmar Tatmadaw in Taung Goat Township, on the border of Rakhine State and Bago Region. 

The AA is creating a path to increase the momentum and speeding up its offensives while on the other hand, it has offered the Myanmar Tatmadaw to start a political dialogue. So, the AA was playing military and politics at the same time, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.

" The AA is achieving military victories and its military momentum is higher as well. Now it's captured about 90 percent of Rakhine State and has started intruding into Ayeyarwady and Magway Regions. Meanwhile, the AA started offering the Myanmar Tatmadaw to discuss politics. But because the military council doesn't trust the AA, it won't take this too seriously. But, in any case, it won't be possible for China not to take the AA seriously because the future of the Kyaukphyu Project has been in the AA's hand. The AA has created a situation in order to increase the momentum of the revolution while on the other hand, it might discuss with China and the military council. In any case, I hope the AA will take part in the revolution as a van." said U Than Soe Naing.

The AA released on 29th December 2024 that it would discuss and solve domestic problems through political means. 

While seeing the AA

However, there has been no discussion between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the AA up to now. When the AA captured towns in Rakhine State and places adjacent to Rakhine State, joint forces also participated with the AA and the AA's original intention was to retake Rakhine State, spokesperson of the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA) U Myo Kyaw told CNI News.

" In my opinion, when the AA captured towns in Rakhine State and places adjacent to Rakhine State, joint forces also took part together with the AA. The joint forces can't stop fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw because even if the AA alone is liberated, it can't live peacefully for long. No one can enjoy peace if the military dictators are not eliminated. Now there are three towns left, which the AA hasn't captured. This situation is just give and take to discuss and find an answer. If an answer can't be found, the AA might capture remaining towns starting from Sittwe." said U Myo Kyaw.

Battles have been breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the AA around the Ann-Padan Road since 11th January and battles are taking place in some places near the border of Rakhine State and Ayeyarwady Region as well as near Chin Su Village, Yegyi Township, Ayeyarwady Region, said in the statement released by the AA on 27th January 2025.

Moreover, three military camps of the Myanmar Tatmadaw in the places adjacent to the borders of Rakhine State, Bago Region, Ayeyarwady Region and Magway Region were captured by the AA which was released on 27th January 2025.

Battles are breaking out on the Ann-Padan Road in Ngaphe Township, Magway Region as well as around Sittwe. The AA is waging battles in Rakhine, Chin, Kachin, north Shan States, Bago, Ayeyarwady, Magway and Sagaing Regions and trying to gain the political level not lower than the confederation.

CNI News

30 January 2025

As the Kokang armed organization (the MNDAA) and the Arakan Army (AA) have attacked and captured military commands of the Myanmar Tatmadaw, the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) seemed to want to attack and capture Pyin Oo Lwin, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs analyst, told CNI News. 

On the other hand, although China and the SAC wanted to meet and discuss, the TNLA seemed to be prolonging, she said.

" Now that the open season has arrived, the TNLA seems to want to attack Pyin Oo Lwin, envying the abilities of the MNDAA and the AA that have military commands of the Myanmar Tatmadaw. I know Pyin Oo Lwin is in a very bad situation. The TNLA seems to want to  attack Pyin Oo Lwin. So, it seems to prolong to discuss politically. I don't think the military council can control Pyin Oo Lwin for long. So, the military council seems to want to cease fire as soon as possible." she said.

Because the TNLA was not able to withstand the Chinese pressure, it would have to meet and discuss with the SAC. 

But the Myanmar Tatmadaw making air strikes to the areas controlled by the TNLA, pointed out military and political analysts. In order to maintain the success of the Ta'ang revolution in the long term, it would cooperate with resistance forces from all over the country, announced the TNLA.

If the Myanmar Tatmadaw continued to launch air strikes, the TNLA could attack Pyin Oo Lwin, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.

" If the military council continue to launch air strikes, the TNLA could attack Pyin Oo Lwin. It can take part in Shan-Man Operation. The participation of the TNLA in Shan-Man Operation was later reduced due to Chinese pressure, but economic ties could increase. China wants to improve the flow of goods on the Muse-Mandalay Road. Negotiations will lead to it, I think." said U Than Soe Naing.

Although the TNLA is attacking to capture Taung Kham near Pyin Oo Lwin, it still is unable to move forward.

The temporary ceasefire agreement was reached between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the MNDAA under China's pressure, reported the Chinese government although the two sides did not release.

So, the TNLA and the AA might meet with the SAC in the near future, considered some people.

CNI News

30 January 2025

Myanmar's political problems could be solved domestically, chairman of the People's Party (PP) U Ko Ko Gyi told CNI News. The National Solidarity and Peacekeeping Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) and the Working Group of political parties met and discussed in Naypyidaw on 23rd and 24th January 2025.

U Ko Ko Gyi said the above regarding the meeting at the press conference held in his office in Yangon

" According to our study, political problems can be solved domestically. To tell you the nearest incident, there are office branches of the ANC party from South Africa across the world. While Nelson Mandella, leader of the ANC, was in prison, members of the party who struggled made the decisions. The political problems of Myanmar can't be solved from Washington D.C or Paris. Duwa Lahi La told his ministers to return to Myanmar, which means there is a political decision only within the country. Our political elements within the country only can solve political problems. Foreign countries can protest or denounce or impose sanctions economically. The practical political solution lies within the country." said U Ko Ko Gyi.

While he NSPNC and the Working Group of political parties were discussing

The Acting President of the NUG told his ministers to go back to Myanmar in order to rebuild the strength within the country at the cabinet meeting held on 26th November 2024.

It was reported that 43 agreements were signed at the meeting of the NSPNC and political parties, including matters relating to amendments of the constitution. Among the agreements, Myanmar is established as a union based on democracy and federalism, which was included in the amendments of the constitution.

Check and balance is important to democracy. So, the agreement was reached to organize the Union Election Commission and the Constitutional Court impartially and independently. It was necessary to support firm political parties on the path to democracy and federalism, said U Ko Ko Gyi.

While leader of the Working Group of political parties, U Ko Ko Gyi and chairman of the NSPNC, Lt-Gen Tun Tun Naung

" Only if the entire people encourage and support domestic politics, will democratic elements become strong. Political parties are formed from various backgrounds and different ideas. The people need to support firm political parties. There might be disagreements individually. But if we believe and make efforts for democracy and federalism, we can succeed. The people also need to support the parties that are continuously making attempts to win democracy and federalism." said U Ko Ko Gyi.

Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing urged armed organizations to renounce arms and run the election and told them the SAC would not grant what armed organizations demand; they should demand what they want from inside the Hluttaw in accordance with the law.

The SAC would hold a free and fair general election that reflected the true will of the voters, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing on 15th January 2025. The election would be held in 2025 and the State power would be handed over to the winning party, he said.

CNI News

30 January 2025

Government employees from Shwebo Township General Administration Office and Shwebo District General Administration Office and a Shwebo township police officer were arrested and taken action against, reported the State Administration Council (SAC) on 27th January. 

When a team led by Shwebo Township Administrator U Kyaw Naing and Shwebo Township Police Officer Than Zaw conducted check up of the visitor list in No. 4 Ward, Shwebo at about 7:00 p.m on 24th January 2025, they found a youth called Kyaw Min Khant coming from Kyauk Myit Village who stayed without a guest list declaration and took him to the Township Administration Office to register in the military service list.

And then, Thurein Nyunt, a junior clerk from Shwebo District General Administration Office, contacted Kyaw Min Khant's parents and told them that they would have to give 130 lakh kyats if they didn't want their son to do military service so that another youth could replace their son. After that, U Ko Ko Lay, father of Kyaw Min Khant, came and gave the money on 25th January 2025.

The money was divided and taken. Shwebo Township Police Officer, Than Zaw and Shwebo Township General Administration Office, a senior clerk Kyaw Khine Lat took 25 lakh kyats each and Thurein Nyunt, junior clerk from Shwebo District General Administration Office took 30 lakh kyats, and 50 lakh kyats was taken by Than Soe Htike who lives in No.10 Ward, Shwebo and who will be substituted, reported the SAC.

Those who abused the People's Military Service Law took the money would be effectively taken action against and 130 lakh kyats had been given back to the family of Kyaw Min Khant by officials concerned on 26th January.

Groups that call up those who are to serve in the military must carry out in accordance with the law and officials are taking steps to prevent bribery and substitutions, reported the SAC.

The People's Military Service Law was enacted in November 2010 and it took effect on 10th February 2024. Up to 9th batch of military service has been recruited.

CNI Articles
28 January 2025

Wars have been breaking out in the northern part of Myanmar since under the governments led by U Thein Sein and Daw Aung San Suu Khi until that led by the SAC. 

China has been brokering in order to stop these battles and hold peace talks up to now. 

When the roles and positions of the three northern allies and China's role regarding these battles were analyzed, unique positions of themselves were found.

Three northern allies jointly attacked the Myanmar Tatmadaw under the governments led by U Thein Sein and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and attended peace talks together. They didn't accept if one of them was only invited to peace talks. They often jointly announced the ceasefire. In the same way, the announcements were jointly made.

In the political conflict that erupted after the military seized power in the following of overthrowing the NLD government on 1st February 2021, saying that the NLD led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was trying to form a government without solving the vote list dispute in the 2020 general election, if you study the policies of the three Northern Alliances and China, you will find that they are unique.

After the NLD government was overthrown, NLD leaders, members of the Hluttaw pro-democracy activists and artists changed from the street politics to armed revolution.

While seeing leaders from the TNLA, the MNDAA and the AA

And then, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) launched Operation-1027 on 27th October 2023 to regain control of the Kokang Special Region-1 that it lost control of the region in 2009 and attacked the Myanmar Tatmadaw and captured many towns in northern Shan State.

The Arakan Army (AA), the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), the Bamar People's Liberation Army (BPLA), the Burma National Revolutionary Army (BNRA), the Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF), the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the MDY PDFs and the PDFs attacked the Myanmar Tatmadaw in the operation. The TNLA led and waged the 2nd wave of Operation-1027 in northern Shan State and Mandalay Region on 25th June 2024 and Shan-Man Operation was launched at the same time.

During Operation-1027, the MNDAA Laukkai, Kon Kyan, Phaungsai, Chin Shwe Haw, Theinni, Monko and Kyukote including the Northeast Command of the Myanmar Tatmadaw while the TNLA captured Mogok, Momeik, Kyaukme, Nawnghkio, Nansang, Mangtong, Namtu, Mong Ngor, Kutkai, Thibaw and Namkham. In the same way, the MDY-PDF also captured Madaya, Thabeikkyin and Sintku. Moreover, the AA has captured Buthidaung, Rathedaung, Mrauk U, Myebon, Rambre, Kyauktaw, Ponnagyun, Maungdaw, Taung Goat, Minbya, Pauktaw, Thandwe, Gwa and Ann Townships in Rakhine State as well as Paletwa Township in Chin State.

Besides the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has captured townships where trade is being conducted including China-Myanmar border trade gates in Kachin State.

Because the Myanmar Tatmadaw had to be retreating militarily, China was worried. Meanwhile, because online Fraud (Zha Pian), illegal businesses were widespread in Myanmar, China has become deeply involved in Myanmar's affairs.

While seeing former joint statement by three northern allies

So, China demanded the SAC and the Myanmar Tatmadaw to crack down the Zha Pian, but they didn't tackle it effectively. That is why, three northern allies showed the strategy to combat the Zha Pian to China and launched town capturing battles.

China supported arms and ammunition to the three northern allies for Operation-1027, said diplomats local and abroad as well as armed fighters.
The three northern allies made preparations to extend their operations from northern Shan State, Rakhine State to Naypyidaw, the center of power for the SAC and the Myanmar Tatmadaw.

However, China considered Myanmar could fall apart because there was no force that could control the central authority. So, it brought Myanmar back onto the negotiating track.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw, the SAC, and the three northern allies could not overcome China's will and they had to hold discussions.

There is one thing unusual. The three northern allies usually worked together on any issue under the governments led by U Thein Sein and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, but under the government led by the SAC, they have changed their policy to individual performance.

For example, the three northern allies don't release joint statements anymore regarding ceasefire, political discussion, peace talks brokered by China, protection of China's projects and investments but individually only.

While seeing Chinese PM and the Chairman of the SAC

In the same way, Myanmar government and the Myanmar Tatmadaw often allowed foreign countries to take part in the peace process as observers in the past, but have allowed China's representatives to attend in the discussions between the SAC and three northern allies.

So, questions whether war in northern Myanmar has been China's game have emerged. The policy that Myanmar citizens only must solve their domestic affairs has to be following China's game, which is food for thought.

Whether stakeholders will allow China as its game in order that the war in northern Myanmar and Myanmar political crisis can be overcome or can change it into their game must be watched.

Moreover, in shaping the future of Myanmar, will Myanmar become the future country shaped whether by China or by Myanmar citizens? It must be watched.

CNI News

28 January 2025

The chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC), Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, said that no means or action could destroy the friendship between Myanmar and China. 

He said the above during his attendance to the celebration of the Chinese New Year Day, the Year of the Snake, 2025. 

Organizations from local and abroad that don't want friendly relationship of the two countries - Myanmar and China - are using various ways to cause dissension and officials and citizens all from the two countries need to take special care, said the chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC).

"The friendship between Myanmar and China that has existed for so many years could not be destroyed  by any means or action, which needs to be proved." he said. 

Local armed organizations are trying to overthrow the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the SAC across the country. So, battles are breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and armed organizations.

China is putting pressure on the MNDAA, the TNLA, the AA and the KIA to suspend battles and hold peace talks while democratic forces, some foreign countries and some armed elements are carrying out anti-China movements within the country and abroad.

There are obstacles to investment activities, including Chinese economic projects in Myanmar. Chinese consulate in Mandalay, Myanmar was bombed. 

Moreover, security measures have also been beefed up at the Chinese embassy in Yangon.

CNI News

27 January 2025

The National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) and the Working Group of the political parties met and discussed measures that should be taken to ensure peace and stability in the country in Naypyidaw on 24th January 2025. 

Conditions for reorganization of the Working Group and matters relating to amendment of the constitution in 2025 were discussed at the meeting.

In the same way, the measures that should be taken to ensure peace and stability in the country, issues related to meeting the needs of the people legally, the current political landscape and matters relating overcome the crisis together by the government, the Tatmadaw and the people were discussed at the meeting.

Suggestions for increasing re-entry of the PDFs into the legal frame and increasing recruitment under the People's Military Service Law were discussed as well.

At present, battles are breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and armed groups across the country and the Myanmar Tatmadaw has lost control of several hundred military camps including the Northeast Command and the West Command as well as over 90 townships.

There has been an increase in the number of the thefts and robberies in Yangon, Mandalay and Naypyidaw. Moreover, Young people are going missing and the rule of law has been weak.

CNI News

27 January 2025

Ayeyarwady Region is, according to the military strategy of the Myanmar Tatmadaw, very important, spokesperson of the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA), U Myo Kyaw told CNI News.

In the border areas of Bago Region, Magway Region and Ayeyarwady Region, which border Rakhine State, battles are severely breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the Arakan Army (AA), reported the AA on 20th January 2025.

The coalition forces opposing the Myanmar military might strengthen their cooperation and Ayeyarwady Region is, according to the military strategy of the Myanmar Tatmadaw, very important, spokesperson of the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA), U Myo Kyaw told CNI News.
 
"Now, in the revolution, the Arakan Army is very far ahead. The people from other States and Regions trust and rely on the AA and cooperate. When they cooperate, in cooperation with the AA, armed groups staying near Gwa, Taung Goat and Ann Townships and opposing the State Administration Council are fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw. Their cooperation may be strong. Ayeyarwady Region and Yangon Region are chiefly important to the administration and existence of the SAC. Ayeyarwady Region is, according to the military strategy of the Myanmar Tatmadaw, very important. If the SAC lost control of Ayeyarwady Region, it would be overthrown, I believe." said U Myo Kyaw.

While seeing the AA

Battles have been breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the AA around the Ann-Padan Road since 11th January and battles are breaking out in some places of Ayeyarwady Region adjacent to Rakhine State and near Chin Su Village, Yegyi Township, said in the AA's statement.

The AA reported on 23rd January 2025 that it would step up its offensive soon for the liberation of the whole Ayeyarwady valley in Magway Region.

There needed to have military alert in Ayeyarwady Region, said Vice Sr-Gen Soe Win, Deputy Chairman of the SAC during his trip to Pathein on 27th December 2024. 

While seeing Yekyi Town, Ayeyarwady Region

The rice market could become chaotic if military operations were stepped up and lots of IDPs could enter Yangon Region; it was necessary to find an answer for the peace by discussing, chairman of the Arakan National Network (ANN) U Tin Htoo Aung told CNI News.

" If the military operations were stepped up in Ayeyarwady Region, the rice market may be chaotic. The transportation between Yangon and Ayeyarwady Region will be more difficult. Moreover, IDPs from Ayeyarwady Region could enter Yangon Region. Both the SAC and the AA have announced that they are ready to discuss politics. It's necessary to put their announcements into practice, sponsored by powerful countries." said U Tin Htoo Aung.

Because battles became severe in the places of Ayeyarwady Region adjacent to Rakhine State, locals from Chaungtha and Shwe Thaung Yan Beaches fled to safety since 19th January and there have been over 20,000 IDFPs now.