CNI News

14 March 2025

Although the period when elections would be held has been revealed, major political changes are unlikely to occur in 2025, military and political analysts told CNI News.

If political changes were wanted, both sides would need to open the way, U Khun Sai who is taking part in the peace process, told CNI News.

"Currently, there is no prospect of political change. But political changes are wanted, both the Myanmar Tatmadaw and revolutionary organizations need to open the way. If they wait for each other, this won't make the way." he said.

While seeing the SAC Chairman during his trip to Belarus

The SAC Chairman has said that elections would be held and the State power would be handed over to the winning party since 2021 when it took the power, but it has not been implemented as yet.

However, the SAC chairman expressed that the SAC had planned to hold elections in December 2025 or in January 2026 during his trips to Russia and Belarus If elections were held at present, they were not able to represent all the townships and all ethnic groups, U Myo Kyaw from the United Nationalities Alliance, told CNI News.

While the anniversary celebration of the NCA was being held

" They had announced that they would hold elections since they staged a coup d'état. The state of emergency was repeatedly extended every six months. The SAC said that they would hold elections in late 2023, but it wasn't able to hold elections. Now the SAC Chairman has said that elections will be held in December 2025 or in January 2026. We understand he said what he wants. They understand that they can't do it. So, the UEC is trying hard to hold elections even in one-third of townships in Myanmar. Even if elections could be held in these townships, it can't represent ethnic groups and most townships." he said.

Because battles have become more widespread throughout the country during the past four years, how the SAC will be able to stabilize the entire country is being questioned by military and political analysts.

The SAC would have to take the responsibility for the security so that elections can be held, they pointed out.

CNI News
13 March 2025

If a multi-party democratic general election was held, chairman of the State Administration Council Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing should meet and discuss with unregistered parties, military and political analysts told CNI News.

Because a multi-party democratic general election would be held without fail, cooperation only was needed without acting contrarily, said the SAC chairman on the plane which returned from Russia and Belarus on 9 March 2025.

If the SAC wanted to hold a multi-party democratic general election, terms and conditions need to be revised so that unregistered parties and parties that have not got registration could take part in the election, U Khun Sai who is involved in the peace process, told CNI News.

"If the SAC opens the way for all parties, then this election has the potential to be an inclusive election. Terms and conditions need to be revised so that a free, fair and transparent general election can be held. The SAC doesn't believe some parties. The SAC doesn't let them to register. Some elections don't accept the 2008 constitution. They have decided they will never run any election under the 2008 constitution. If these parties can take part in the election, the 2008 constitution can be amended." he said.

While Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing was meeting with the Russian President Putin

If a multi-party democratic general election was held, Myanmar would be really successful, said the SAC Chairman. Moreover, he expressed that elections would be held in December 2025 or in January 2026.

Although it was likely for the SAC to meet and discuss with the parties which have not got registration, it was unlikely for the SAC to meet with the parties which did not apply for registration, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News.

" When all the parties have been allowed to register, some parties don't apply for registration. It's their problem?. Some parties might not be built by their chairpersons, but by other elements behind the scene. The Union Election Commission will have to verify. How can the SAC discuss with the parties which have not got registration? This may be because of process. But how will the SAC discuss with the parties which didn't apply for registration under what title? It's impossible logically." he said.

While the Union Election Commission was meeting with political parties

The UEC rejected the applications of some parties although they applied to register again. Moreover, the UEC has imposed regulations and restrictions in order that some parties cannot register, some people pointed out.

At present, 53 parties have been enlisted to run the election and according to the political parties registration law that was imposed in January 2023, some of the restrictions were revised and published on January 30, 2024.

Some points that were revised contain: a party must have 50,000 members instead of 100,000 ninety days before the date when elections will be held and its offices must be opened in one-third of the townships across the country ninety days before elections and other points.

CNI News
13 March 2025

It was necessary to compromise politically by giving some incentives to armed organizations in order to stop armed conflicts, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP) Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News.

Suspension of armed conflicts was needed to win political goals and it would be necessary to compromise beyond the 2008 constitution, he said.

" Because a political displacement didn't arise, armed organizations arose. Armed revolution is to push politics. Only if armed conflicts can be resolved, political goals can be reached. So, political give and take are needed. So, we must be able to persuade armed organizations. It might not be convenient under the 2008 constitution. So, beyond the 2008 constitution, what kind of self-administration and self-determination will be offered? How will natural resources be allocated? What kind of new nation will be built with what kinds of compromises? These are incentives. How shall we persuade them to make them come to peace talks?" said Dr. Aye Maung.

A temporary ceasefire agreement was reached between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the MNDAA with China's brokered engagement.

While seeing leaders from the AA, the TNLA and the MNDAA

A video clip in which an administrative official from the MNDAA said that Kutkai, Theinni, Kunlong and Laukkai Districts had been officially designated as the Kokang Special Region-1 and officially granted self-government on the Chinese New Year Day, went viral on social media.

Although the TNLA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw met and discussed with China's brokered engagement, the discussion ended without any results and it would discuss again, reported the TNLA on 19th February 2025. Moreover, the AA and the SAC would meet and discuss in March with China's brokered engagement, according to those close to both sides.

All the leaders were invited and a discussion should be held to think over for the country and the people, vice chairman of the National Democratic Force Party (NDF), U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News.

" They have said that they will build a federal democratic union. It's necessary to negotiate carefully this time. The country has never been in such a bad situation. All the leaders should reconsider the country's situation for which all-inclusive discussion should be held. To tell you frankly about the current situation, all the leaders seem to be delayed to discuss. They have become warlords and are focusing on their interests. But the people are getting into trouble. County leaders, especially the main leader, have to think about it more." he said.

While seeing leaders of armed organizations and Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing

The AA has said that it wanted the confederation at least and at most the AA has a goal to build the Rakhine country while general secretary of the TNLA Maj-Gen Tar Bone Kyaw urged his people to get ready because the Palaung country would be built if needed.

In the same way, because ethnic groups would have thoughts that would be more than federalism in 2025, said Lt-Gen Gun Maw of the KIA during his meeting with Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.

EAOs should not demand what is impossible and they must negotiate what should be, said the SAC Chairman Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing on the plane which returned from Russia and Belarus on 9 March 2025.

CNI News
13 March 2025

Chinese Special Envoy Mr. Deng Xijun came and discussed on 11 March 2025 with the chairman of the State Administration Council Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing who returned from goodwill trips to Russia and Belarus.

The meeting was attended by associate secretary of the SAC General Ye Win Oo, member of the SAC and chairman of the NSPNC Lt-Gen Yar Pyae and Union Minister for Home Affairs Lt-Gen Tun Tun Naung.

Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing went on goodwill trips to Russia and Belarus from 3rd to 9th March and separately with the Russian President Putin and the Belarusian President Lukashenko and discussed matters relating to holding elections and economic investments.

Chinese Special Envoy Mr. Deng Xijun came to Myanmar and discussed with Deputy Prime Minister and FM U Than Swe on 10 March 2025.

The SAC chairman and Chinese Special Envoy discussed matters regarding the SAC's preparations for elections and constructive cooperation from China.

China's cooperation in the peace process of Myanmar, narcotic drug prevention and control activities, bilateral cooperation in eliminating online gambling and online financial fraud were discussed, reported the SAC.

In the same way, the SAC Chairman and Mr. Deng Xijun discussed matters regarding border trade as well.

China is mediating the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the Northern Alliance (AA-TNLA-MNDAA) in order to negotiate a ceasefire.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw and the MNDAA discussed on 16 January 2025 and reached a temporary ceasefire agreement with China's brokered engagement.

Although the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the TNLA discussed in China on 16 February 2025, the discussion ended without any agreements.

CNI News

12 March 2025

Chinese Special Envoy Mr. Deng Xijun arrived in Myanmar after a delegation led by SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing visited Russia and Belarus. He met with Deputy Prime Minister and FM, U Than Swe.

They discussed matters relating to cooperation between the two countries for further promoting peace and stability along the Myanmar-China border areas and the latest developments about internal peace and national reconciliation.

They discussed matters in relation to that China would continue to provide positive assistance to Myanmar in its efforts to achieve lasting peace and socio-economic development. 

Moreover, they also discussed enhancing cooperation between relevant organizations in the two countries to jointly combat online gambling and fraud networks, stated the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

At the invitations by the Russian President Putin and the Belarusian President Lukashenko, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing visited those countries on an official goodwill visit from March 3 to 9.

And then, the Chinese Special Envoy, Mr. Deng Xijun arrived in Myanmar again on 10th March after the SAC Chairman returned to Myanmar on 9 March 2025.

The SAC has planned to hold elections in Myanmar in December 2025 or in January 2026, said the SAC Chairman at a joint press conference with the Belarusian President Lukashenko.

CNI News

11 March 2025

There are questions among the people whether the Arakan Army will launch offensives to Sittwe. With China's brokered engagement, the AA probably will meet with the State Administration Council, according to those close to both sides. 

Sittwe was not so important to the discussion; the AA was increasing military operations in Sittwe kind of while preparations were being made to put the crisis on the discussion roundtable, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

" Sittwe is not the main cause. So, the AA is just threatening it kind of. Because the AA wants its ethnic rights or political right, it must have threatened Sittwe. And then it has to continue the dialogue means to win its political right. While preparations were being made to put the crisis on the discussion roundtable, it's increasing its military operations. Only when Sittwe can be captured, for example, will the peace talks be convenient, which is not right. If the EAO has capture the heart of the people and basic territories, it's just a great force. While the AA is launching offensives to the three Regions, Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing succeeded in diplomatic relations after returning from Russia. If both sides increase their power and compete, it will only cause more damage to the local people and the cities." he said.

While seeing the AA

The AA has been launching its offensives in Rakhine State since 13 November 2023 and after it had captured 14 townships, it released on 29 December 2024 it would solve the domestic problem through political means. 

Although it has reported that it will solve the problem through political means, battles are breaking out between the AA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw in Magway, Bago and Ayeyarwady Regions adjacent to Rakhine State.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw was not worried about Sittwe but mainly about that the AA was extending its operations in Ayeyarwady, Magway and Bago Regions, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.

"That the SAC is mainly worried about is not Sittwe, but about that the AA is launching offensives to Ayeyarwady, Magway and Bago Regions. They will try to negotiate it, I think. But the AA had announced that it would discuss. In my opinion, as the AA has had the upper hand militarily, which part must be stopped or which part must be suspended won't arise. So, if the peace talks were held, military negotiations probably won't take place, I think." he said.

At president, the AA is waging battles in Rakhine, Chin, Kachin States, northern Shan State, Bago, Ayeyarwady, Magway and Sagaing Regions and making attempts to win a political status that is not lower than the confederation.

CNI News

11 March 2025

As the chairman of the State Administration Council has expressed exactly the time when elections will be held, the SAC can emerge as a powerful group for elections if its current six month tenure expires, military and political analysts told CNI News.

The SAC Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing expressed that he had planned to hold elections in December 2025 or in January 2026 at a joint press conference with the Belarusian President Lukashenko on 7 March 2025.

Because the SAC's current six month tenure will expire in August 2025, the SAC can emerge as a different administrative group in stead of extending the state of emergency for another six months, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

" Because the current six month tenure will end in August, the SAC seems to want the remaining 6 months to be an election period. Rather than extending the state of emergency for another six months, the SAC may change into an organization that will supervise elections with the Union Election Commission." he said.

Because of the ballot fraud in the 2020 general election, the SAC had taken the responsibility temporarily after announcing the state of emergency; in the near future, elections would be held in accordance with the law, said the SAC Chairman at a joint press conference with the Belarusian President on 7th March, 2025.

While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and the Belarusian President Lukashenko

Although he said that 53 political parties would run the election, he did not express the exact date when elections would be held. 

If elections were held, according to the 2008 constitution, the State power would have to be handed over to the National Defense and Security Council, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News.

" If elections are held, according to the 2008 constitution, the State power will have to be handed over to the National Defense and Security Council. And then, elections will be held within six months. The campaign period is three months. If the SAC has officially announced that it will hold elections, it will surely hand over the State power to the NDSC and hold elections." he said.

Although the SAC announced in 2022 that it would hold elections in August 2023, because battles were severely breaking out all over the country, the SAC extended the state of emergency for another six months under Section. 425 of the 2008 constitution. And then the SAC repeatedly extended the tenure until today.

So, questions are emerging among members of the public regarding the period when elections would be held, which the SAC chairman said at a joint press conference with the Belarusian President Lukashenko.

CNI News

11 March 2025

Those who wanted the multi-party democratic system needed to cooperate, but not to act contrarily, said chairman of the State Administration Council, Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing. 
He said the above while answering questions by some media on the plane which returned from Russia.

" I had said that the multi-party democratic elections will be held. We'll do it firmly. If they really want the multi-part democratic system, they need to cooperate without acting contrarily. If they cooperate, our country will be successful at all." said the SAC Chairman.

While Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing was answering questions by some media on the plane

Plans had been made to hold elections in Myanmar in December, 2025 or in January, 2026, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing in the joint press conference with the Belarusian President Lukashenko on 7th March 2025. 

However, the elections that would be held by the SAC would be destroyed at all, announced the National Unity Government (NUG), the PDFs and some EAOs.

At present, battles are severely breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and armed organizations across the country and the Myanmar Tatmadaw has lost control of more than 90 townships as well as the Northeast Command and the West Command.

So, there are 330 townships in Myanmar and the SAC would be able to hold elections in 167 townships or over 80 townships only, according to political parties.

CNI News

10 March 2025

In the current political landscape of Myanmar, where the country is on the verge of collapse, each relevant leader should reduce their own interests and the powers they have acquired in order to avoid a failed state, spokesperson of the 7 EAO Alliance, Naing Aung Ma Ngay told CNI News.

Whether a country becomes a failed state or not depends on the respective leaders, he said.

"If leaders of EAOs, organizations, and parties, including the SAC reduce the power they have wielded to ensure equality and to consider the interests of the people, Myanmar can be prevented from becoming a failed state." said Naing Aung Ma Ngay.

While EAOs were holding a conference

EAOs have captured territories as much as they can after 2021 and because the territories they have dominated have expanded, more territorial disputes are taking place.

Moreover, due to the different demands of all ethnic armed groups, if the current situation continues, Myanmar could become a failed state, according to military and political analysts.

The political situation in Myanmar that has been over four years long is at its worst at present, chairman of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD), U Sai Nyunt Lwin told CNI News.

While seeing some armed organization leaders

"The political situation in Myanmar has now reached a very bad state. Although many cities had not been damaged yet like in World War II, members of the public are getting into trouble for their livelihoods. If we talk about the public's wishes, they want the crisis to come to an end quickly. They want the situation to get better quickly. If possible, they want everything to be settled." he said.

There are territorial disputes in Shan State between the KIA and the TNLA, between the KIA and the MNDAA, between the TNLA and the SSPP, between the RCSS and the SSPP and between the PNO and the PNLO.

In the same way, there are also territorial disputes in Tanintharyi Region and Karen State between the NMSP and the KNU, and between the KNU and the KTLA. Although there are suggestions to resolve the crisis through dialogue, there has been no political dialogue that can reach a reformation movement, pointed out military and political analysts.