CNI News

20 November 2025

Ethnic armed organizations in northern Shan State may resume military operations depending on the agreements and relations between China and the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw), according to military and political analysts who spoke to CNI News.

Sai Htay Aung, Chair of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News that if the central government can persuade armed groups to align with it, China’s stance on Myanmar may shift, reducing the likelihood of renewed armed conflict.

He said:“It depends heavily on agreements and relations between the central government and China. At the 10th anniversary of the NCA, Deng Xijun himself said Myanmar’s peace process is important, and peace is essential for the elections. If China says it will support this process, then their policy at the moment is unlikely to change. During such a time, the Myanmar government—particularly the central government—needs to bring the armed groups onto its side.If they all become our people, then no matter how China changes its policy, we will continue following Myanmar’s own policies.”

Leaders of the three Northern Alliance groups

So far, China has not changed its position toward Myanmar’s central government, and has been pressuring armed groups to agree to ceasefires and return territories to the military. 

China has also restricted the UWSA from supplying arms, ammunition, and assistance to other armed groups, in support of peace and the reopening of border trade routes and development corridors.

Political analyst Dr. Aung Myo told CNI News that because China has enormous economic interests in Myanmar, any collapse of the central government would hurt China first.

Therefore, he said, China desires stable relations with a strong central government because it cannot afford disruptions to its economic corridors and market access.

UWSA leader with former Chinese special envoy Sun Guosheng.

Dr. Aung Myo explained: “China were completely unhappy with the current government, but it secretly supported the northern groups, those groups still don’t have the capacity to dominate the whole country.Many of Myanmar’s armed groups are not pro-China. Groups like the KNU and RCSS are not pro-China — they lean toward the American bloc. If the main centers of power collapse — the military or the state — China would suffer first. Its access to the sea would be blocked, its major markets would be disrupted, and its strategic projects would fail. That’s not something China can accept.So China strongly prefers to maintain relations with a strong, stable central government in Myanmar.”

Currently, with China’s mediation, the Myanmar military has secured ceasefire agreements with two of the Northern Alliance groups — the MNDAA and TNLA — and has regained control of certain territories.

Analysts say that along with these ceasefire deals, China is also helping ensure that elections can be held successfully in these areas.

However, if relations worsen between China and the Myanmar military, or if China shifts its policy, the TNLA and MNDAA may resume military operations, analysts warn.

CNI News

20 November 2025

The Embassy of India in Myanmar announced that it held a federalism-focused workshop on 18 November 2025, inviting ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), political parties, politicians, and representatives from the NSPNC.

From the political parties, U Ko Ko Gyi, Sai Htet Aung, U Khin Maung Soe, Daw Than Than Nu, Dr. Aye Maung, Daw Nan Khin Aye Oo, U Ba Shain, Naing Tala Nyi, U Khin Maung Soe, and U Thet Zaw attended.

Separately, individual politicians -  U Htet Aung Kyaw, Daw Sandar Min, Dr. Aung Myo, U An Kawla, and Dr. Nyo Nyo Thin took part.

Leaders from EAOs who joined the workshop were Ye Baw Myo Win, Colonel Saw Kyaw Nyunt, Colonel Saw Kyaw Than Htay, Naing Aung Mangei, and Nan Yin Yin Soe.

 The federalism workshop held at the Indian Embassy on 18 November 2025.

From the National Solidarity and Peace-making Negotiation Committee (NSPNC), member Maj-Gen Soe Naing Oo (Retired) attended, along with retired senior military officers Lt-Gen Khin Zaw Oo and Lt-Gen Myint Soe representing the Tatmadaw (Retired).

In addition, U Hla Maung Shwe from CPR and U Aung Naing Oo, who has been involved in previous peace processes, also joined.

From the Indian side, Ambassador Mr. Abhay Thakur,  Executive Director Mr. Sabyasachi Dutta of former Director General of the Assam Rifles Mr. Pradeep Nair, and Ms. Rami Desai from India Foundation attended and led discussions.

It is learned that the workshop included presentations from India on the situation in its Northeast region as well as that of Naga armed groups.

CNI News

20 November 2025

With Myanmar preparing for upcoming elections, military and political analysts say that parliamentary (Hluttaw) politics should be rebuilt through cooperation between youth and senior generations.

Election Phase (1) will be held on 28 December 2025, followed by Phase (2) on 11 January 2026, and Phase (3) in the final week of January.

These elections are seen as an attempt to overcome the current political crisis and revive parliamentary politics. Many young candidates are expected to contest.

U Ko Ko Gyi, Chair of the People’s Party (PP), told CNI News that if young parliamentary candidates enter Parliament, their strengths, combined with the wisdom and experience of older generations, will be essential in rebuilding democracy.

He said, “When we propose what we believe is right for the country, sometimes it differs from the views of the ruling government or ruling party. For those who believe in democracy, the political platform has disappeared.Once a parliament emerges, voices representing democracy will reach the legislature and gain some space to speak. From there, the political sphere can be expanded. Young people have innovative perspectives and ideas. If we combine those with our experiences, I don’t see a big generational divide. So if young candidates enter parliament, it’s about combining their strengths with the experience we have gained.”

During a parliamentary session.

On 1 February 2021, the Myanmar military ousted the NLD government, claiming it attempted to form a government without resolving disputes over the 2020 election voter list, and declared a state of emergency.

Since then, parliamentary politics has vanished, and the legislative, judicial, and executive powers have been concentrated under Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing.

As a result, political parties and pro-democracy advocates are making efforts to revive parliamentary politics through elections.

U Ko Ko Gyi told CNI News that those who believe in political solutions and are entering the elections also share a common approach.

Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing.

He said, “It’s not only among youth—many citizens are uncertain whether this election will bring meaningful change. Among those participating through elections and political means, there is agreement that problems must be resolved through this electoral and political path. We need to focus on that and build unity. There will always be differences between individuals, but we must negotiate and work through them.”

Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing has also stated that instead of armed demands, political actors should enter elections under a multiparty democratic system and raise their demands through Parliament. He said he would work toward having a parliament that is respectable.

CNI News

20 November 2025

In the Mansigyi area of Banmauk Township, upper Sagaing Region, the Shan New Year Festival marking the transition from Maha Shan Year 2119 to 2120 was celebrated on 19 November 2025.

The Mansigyi area where the festival was held is under the control of the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA), which is providing security in the area.

Banmauk town, along with its southern, northern, and eastern outskirts, is currently controlled by joint KIA–PDF–Kadu forces. These joint forces launched an offensive on Banmauk on 15 September 2025 and captured the town on 20 September.

The SNA has since been conducting counter-offensives in an attempt to retake Banmauk, and local residents report that SNA troops have advanced to within one mile of the town.
Daily clashes continue between the SNA and the joint KIA–PDF–Kadu forces across Banmauk Township.

Despite the intensified fighting, Shan communities are carrying on with the traditional celebration of the Shan New Year. The Kadu ethnic group also took part in the festivities.

CNI News

19 November 2025

Colonel Khun Okkar, Chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), told CNI News that China’s mediation is crucial in the recent tensions between the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) and the Kokang armed group (MNDAA), which emerged after disagreements over the withdrawal of MNDAA camps.

Military and political analysts report that tensions have risen after the Myanmar military demanded that MNDAA withdraw its outposts stationed outside Lashio in northern Shan State.

Colonel Khun Okkar said the issue depends largely on the specific terms of the agreement arranged by China’s Special Envoy Mr. Deng Xijun, who mediated the handover of Lashio to the Myanmar military.

He said that if the agreement allowed MNDAA to station troops outside Lashio, then the military’s order for MNDAA to withdraw would constitute a breach of that agreement.

Colonel Khun Okkar

Colonel Khun Okkar said:“So even though Lashio has been handed back, if the agreement allowed MNDAA to maintain troops around the outskirts of Lashio, then the current demand by the military commission to withdraw is a violation of the agreement. We need to look at it based on the original agreement. But since we have not seen the agreement at all, it’s difficult for us to judge. Also, it was China’s special envoy Deng Xijun who led the original agreement. So in the end, the decision lies with the Chinese envoy. China’s mediation is crucial. If China overlooks this issue, armed clashes could break out again — and we cannot predict what might happen. China hasn’t said anything yet, so perhaps they are observing for now. Or maybe the military council is acting beyond the terms of the agreement, or maybe the timeline in the agreement has expired—we don’t know. We never got to read the agreement. So I think we need to listen to China’s position on this.”

Residents of Lashio say that although MNDAA has handed Lashio back to the Myanmar military, MNDAA remains heavily stationed around the outskirts of the city.

Colonel Khun Okkar said the military’s demand for MNDAA to withdraw could be related to ensuring security for the upcoming elections and reopening trade routes, and that both sides should follow the original agreement.

MNDAA troops

He said:“It seems the military is asking this to ensure security ahead of the election. And as trade routes need to reopen, the military commission might be pushing this more firmly for election security and for the resumption of trade flows. Because One Belt One Road–related villages lie on both sides, they may be ordering MNDAA positions to move for that reason as well. MNDAA won’t withdraw unless China intervenes. They will cling to the original agreement. Both sides must follow the agreement as it was.”

Reports emerged that since November 11, meetings between the Myanmar military and MNDAA have been taking place at the Two Elephants Hotel in Lashio.

The Myanmar military captured Hsipaw from the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) on October 17 and currently controls the Mandalay–Hsipaw section of the Union Highway. MNDAA controls the Hsipaw–Lashio section of the same road.

Amid escalating military tension, MNDAA has reportedly released over 200 people detained.

CNI News

19 November 2025

U Ko Ko Gyi, Chairman of the People’s Party (PP) told CNI News that whoever leads and forms the next government after the upcoming elections, it needs to take the form of a national unity government.

With the national elections set for the end of this year, people are eagerly watching to see what kind of government might emerge in Myanmar.

U Ko Ko Gyi said, “Since the elections have not yet been held, we cannot say anything in advance about the results. But whoever gets the mandate to lead and form the government— who they may be— my view remains the same as what I said even before the 2020 election. The incoming government should be a kind of national unity government. It should include the right individuals and ethnic groups, working together to collectively solve the country’s problems.”

The form of a government, or the model by which a nation is governed, refers to the political framework that allows a government of a federal union to exercise authority over political actors within parliament (Hluttaw).

Political party leaders

Political analyst U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News that the next government needs to be people-oriented, as the country is currently facing a situation brought about by a lack of national unity.

He said, “Most importantly, we need a parliament that is accountable to the people. We need a government that is accountable to the people. We need a government that can deliver clear and positive results through meaningful reform. This country is made up of many ethnicities and religions. Under these circumstances, it is extremely important for everyone to coexist in harmony and unity. Because our country lacks unity, we are in the current situation. So if a government that includes all sides—one that can stop the ongoing disputes—emerges, that would be a very promising path forward.”

It is expected that the new government formed after the upcoming elections will be led by the military and the USDP. However, political observers say that including representatives from other ethnic political parties could help ease the current political crisis.

Spokesperson U Thein Tun Oo of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) told CNI News that the type of government that emerges will depend on the mandate entrusted by the people.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing meeting with political parties

He said, “It depends on the will of the people who cast their vote. Whether the people give all their support to a single party or distribute their support proportionately—that will determine the nature of the new government. That is the defining factor. Many other considerations certainly exist, but since it is the people who delegate authority, they are the key. It depends on the seats won and the composition of the parliament. What should or should not happen must be considered based on current circumstances and the future.”

The Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, has said that state power will be transferred to the political party that wins the election.

However, both domestic and international observers have pointed out that the upcoming election in Myanmar is largely symbolic, and that regardless of the results, the outcome will be a military-led government.

Political analysts, nonetheless, say that in order to address Myanmar’s political crisis and ongoing armed conflicts, the next government needs to take the form of a national unity government.

CNI News

19 November 2025

Political parties and analysts are discussing what issues newly elected MPs should prioritize once the new parliament (Hluttaw) emerges after the elections.

They point out that the post-election government will need political stability to rebuild society, and therefore peace-related issues should be treated as top priorities. 

They also note that forming a national unity-style government could help resolve the current political and military crises.

Sai Aik Paung, Chairman of the Shan and Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP), told CNI News that the next government should focus mainly on stabilizing commodity prices, creating job opportunities for the public, working to lift international sanctions, and ensuring consistent electricity supplies for the people.

A marketplace

He said: “In the short term, the most important thing is to bring commodity prices down and stabilize them. We need to make sure job opportunities are available. We also have to work to lift international sanctions. If sanctions are lifted, foreign investment will come in, and when it comes in, job opportunities will open up. Prices will stabilize naturally, and the kyat will regain value. These things need to be done quickly—even in the first 100 days. Electricity must be restored quickly in industrial zones, and we need to ensure that the public has regular access to power. Prices are extremely high right now. People are struggling, especially the grassroots. So the new government must prioritize this.”

U Htet Aung Kyaw, a political analyst, told CNI News that addressing the sharp and unreasonable rise in commodity prices — which is heavily affecting lower-income groups — should be the first priority, as it is a problem that can be solved within a short timeframe and directly impacts the public.

Voters waiting in line to cast their ballots

He said: “Commodity prices are unreasonably high which is something that shouldn’t be happening at this level. This is an issue that can be addressed quickly. It’s something that can be brought to parliament immediately and resolved without delay. If it were up to me, this would be the first proposal I would submit in parliament. And along with that, the price of medicines must also be addressed. Medicine prices have risen unfairly, and people are suffering a lot because of it. These directly affect public health. That’s why I believe they should be resolved first.”

Observers advise that voters should carefully examine and choose political parties and candidates in the upcoming elections—selecting only those who genuinely prioritize the interests of the people and the nation.

In Myanmar, Election Phase (1) will be held on December 28, 2025, Election Phase (2) on January 11, 2026, and Election Phase (3) in the final week of January. A new government and parliament will emerge afterward.

CNI News 

18 November 2025

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, stated that the groups actively undermining peace and stability in Kayin (Karen) State are the armed organizations operating within the state.

He made the statement during a meeting with state-level department officials and community elders in Hpa-An, Kayin State, on November 15, 2025.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said: "Since the time the country gained independence, Kayin State has suffered from the loss of peace and stability due to armed insurgency, which has affected the people living in the state as well as the entire country. The groups working to destabilize Kayin State are the armed organizations within the state itself. Only with peace and stability can young people pursue education, healthcare services be provided to the public, and regional development projects be carried out."

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing seen

He therefore urged the residents of the state to take action by all means necessary to prevent activities that undermine peace and stability, which damage the state's development.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing also added: "The State is working to clear and deal with the activities that undermine peace and stability in Kayin State. The Tatmadaw is carrying out clearance operations at KK Park, near the Myanmar-Thai border, where online financial fraud and online gambling are being run, and this will be completely resolved as a national duty."

Armed groups operating in Kayin State include the Karen National Union (KNU), the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA), the Karen National Union/Karen National Liberation Army-Peace Council (KNU/KNLA-PC), the Karen State Border Guard Force/Karen National Army (BGF/KNA), the Kaw Thoo Lei Army (KTA) led by Saw Nedah Mya (who was expelled from the KNU), the New Mon State Party (NMSP), and the People's Defence Force (PDF) groups.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing seen

Among these armed groups, the BGF/KNA operates under the Tatmadaw, while the DKBA, KNU/KNLA-PC, and NMSP have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) and are not currently fighting the Tatmadaw.

The KNU has withdrawn from the NCA and is leading the PDFs in the fight to overthrow the Tatmadaw, while the KTA is also fighting the Tatmadaw.

Currently, intense fighting is ongoing between the Myanmar military and the KNU-PDF joint forces in Kayin State, leading to the suspension of trade along the Myawaddy-Kawkareik Asian Highway.

CNI News

18 November 2025

Military and political analysts suggest that the upcoming election in Myanmar should be one that can resolve the country's political problems.

In Myanmar,  Phase 1 of the election will take place on December 28, 2025, in 102 townships, and Phase 2 will take place on January 11, 2026, in 100 townships.

U Ko Ko Gyi, Chairman of the People's Party (PP), told CNI News Agency that he wants the election in Myanmar to be directed towards how to collectively solve the current political problems.

He said: "I want this election to proceed with the objective of how to work together to resolve the current political problems, rather than just a competition like elections held under normal circumstances. I see the situation of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and war refugees as an issue that must be prioritized and tackled. Another thing is the need to invite investments that can create job opportunities in peaceful areas. So, the priority programs have already been released in the election manifesto. What is certain is that after the election, a Parliament will emerge, and those who can legally exercise power will be elected representatives. When there is no Parliament, the executive and legislative powers are combined. Therefore, I believe we will be able to review, amend, and enact laws, as well as scrutinize and check for legal compliance. So, in the current situation, I believe we should only aim to resolve this major conflict through collaboration and negotiation."

 The government led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing seen

Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, has stated that he will transfer state power to the political party that wins the election.

Political observers point out that the new government formed after the election will likely be led by the Tatmadaw (military) and the USDP (Union Solidarity and Development Party), but including representatives from other ethnic political parties in the cabinet will help to overcome the current political crisis.

U Htet Aung Kyaw, a political analyst, told CNI News Agency that there may be hope if a new government emerges with a mix of old and new faces, but if it is formed only with old faces, the political landscape may not show any significant change from the current situation.

Hluttaw in session.

He commented: "As stipulated in the Constitution, Parliaments (Hluttaws) will emerge with the elected representatives and 25 percent of Tatmadaw personnel. The Parliament will then elect three presidents. The new government must form teams to resolve issues based on the will and preference of the President. So, we have to wait and see the election results. We also have to see how many people will actually cast their votes. Only when all those are fulfilled can we predict the exact shape. If a government consists only of people everyone already knows, we won't see much significant or positive change. If a young, capable person becomes a Minister or Deputy Minister, and the government emerges with a mix of old and new faces, it would be a government that we can have more hope in. If it's all the same people, we might not see a landscape that improves on the current situation."

As the election is scheduled for the end of this year, everyone is watching with keen interest to see what kind of government will take power in Myanmar.

Domestic and foreign diplomats, however, suggest that the planned election in Myanmar is merely a formality, and whatever the result, a military-led government structure will emerge.

Meanwhile, local political parties and observers point out that if the post-election government adopts a form similar to a government based on national unity, it could resolve the political and military crises.