CNI Interview

18 November 2024

Even though the armed conflicts which arose shortly after Myanmar gained her independence has been over 70 years long, they still have been in full swing and so have political problems.

So, everyone is making an attempt to build a democracy based on federalism. However, some are asking a question why the federalism is important in order to resolve the armed and political conflicts. 

In relation to the above-mentioned situations, CNI News interviewed chairman of the People's Party (PP) U Ko Ko Gyi.

While those who attended the Myjayang Conference in July 2016

CNI News     ။          ။ What is the root cause of armed and political conflicts?

U Ko Ko Gyi ။             ။ Basically, it is the constitution crisis of our country. After the two tenures of the Hluttaw under the 2008 constitution, we found a lot of requirements and weaknesses in the constitution. 

While trying to amend the constitution, we have reached the current situation. Basically it is the federalism and democracy problem. I see it's mainly a political problem.

CNI News     ။          ။ If that's so, how can we end the root cause? As soon as the constitution is amended, can the armed and political conflicts end?

U Ko Ko Gyi ။             ။ We came back from India a few days ago after studying democracy and federalism there. 

India gained her independence consecutively together with Myanmar. But India has been amending its constitution if necessary up to now. We had three constitutions that were void. 

It's necessary to have good bases since the constitution is drafted. Whenever it's necessary to amend it, it must be amended. When the domestic armed conflicts are currently taking place, we need to carry out to make political means open."

When the Myanmar delegate went to India to study the constitution and federalism of India

CNI News     ။          ။ If the constitution is to be amended, which sections should be amended for the first time. Which sections do you think make the conflicts take place?

U Ko Ko Gyi ။             ။ It's been very complicated now. So, we have to be going on big amendments and matters that must be carried out in the long run. For the time being, we need to amend the matters relating to equal rights, division of power, division of finance and division of profits gained from natural resources.

 Another thing, it's necessary to arise elected village administrators. Again, the check and balance must be strong. For example, the election commission needs to be an independent organization and does the legal system. Moreover, we mainly need to attempt to reduce the corruptions, I think.

CNI News     ။          ။ Some says that as soon as the federalism is used in Myanmar, political conflicts can be solved. What's your opinion about it?

U Ko Ko Gyi ။             ။ Federalism is essential. But military conflict contains matters in relation to politics and businesses related to military as well as interests cases. So,  we need to tackle the problems relating to businesses while the basic political problem is being solved.

While Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and Chinese PM

CNI News     ။          ။ They says federalism is the best for Myanmar. Why? What about U Ko Ko Gyi?

U Ko Ko Gyi ။             ။ Conflicts have been taking place in a row since Myanmar gained her independence because points and promises that are included in the Panglong Agreement could not implemented. 

One is politically an ideological problem. At that moment, the armed movement of the Burma Communist Party was the biggest.

Later, ethnic armed groups emerged by reason of equal rights and federalism. And then, in 2021, armed groups related to democracy emerged. So, we have to solve the problems regarding democracy and federalism. 

And a basic point of political problems is the livelihood of the public. Because the economic problem could not be solved, dissatisfactions and politically based problems have mixed, I think.

CNI News     ။          ။ Why are there battles in some federal countries? For example, in Ethiopia, battles are breaking out again between the Ethiopian government and the Tigre People's Liberation Front. In India, there are separatist armed groups. Why do you think there are these things?

U Ko Ko Gyi ။             ။ If a political problem cannot be politically solved, it will lead to the military means. According to what we studied in India, there are about 2,000 races, 22 office languages, caste system and its problems and a wide gap between the rich and the poor. 

But armed conflicts are very few because of Indian political leaders. Institutions there are strong. But all the political institutions have been destroyed in Myanmar since the 1962 coup d'état. 

After the 8888 Uprising, political parties emerged again. But they haven't settled down. So, as long as military is strong, politics will still be weak. Only if the political framework can be widened, will the military framework be narrow.

While seeing leaders at the 8th Anniversary Celebration of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement

CNI News     ။          ။ Some countries which are are unitary unions or communist countries without federal states are wealthy and stable, for example China and Russia. Why do you think that"

U Ko Ko Gyi ။             ။  One thing is related to timing. Mainly, it's related to rationalism and far-sightedness. We went to China as well. Although there is only one party in China, it has many small groups. Moreover, there are separate groups which are not communist.

 First and foremost, there is the political stability. And leaders were able to push the country to reach on the path to development. We must beware of it, I think. If they tried to reform only when uprisings took place, it would be too late.

Chinese leaders were able to reform before the public blasted. They changed their economic system into market economy. Common farming system was changed into privately owned system. 

But public demonstrations that contained many students took place. Although there were sorrowful suppressions, generally speaking, far-sightedness, rationalism and the ability to change of Chinese leaders are important.

CNI News     ။          ။ As the last question, what do we need to do so as to end armed conflicts and the political conflict in Myanmar?

U Ko Ko Gyi ။             ။ If armed conflicts take place in a country, it's not just a domestic problem, foreign countries related to it will take part. So, when the armed conflicts are solved, illegal businesses and instigations of foreign countries will be experienced. 

So, solution of the problem with armed means can't produce good results. First, we need to conduct reformations bravely within the country. On the other hand, foreign policies than can support the domestic peace and stability need to be laid down. 

And informal political talks or secret discussions need to be held before official dialogues between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and armed groups currently waging battles, I think.

CNI News

15 November 2024

The watermelon agricultural industry in Myanmar done by businessmen from China has been moved to Laos and Vietnam because there are territorial instability as a result of political conflicts in Myanmar, according to watermelon traders. 

It is especially because there are transportation difficulties and China-Myanmar trade border gates have been closed. 

In moving their watermelon agricultural industries to Laos and Vietnam, Chinese businessmen took Myanmar workers who had worked in their business to Laos, a Myanmar watermelon farmer told CNI News.

" Chinese businessmen have moved their watermelon agricultural business to Laos and Vietnam. In Myanmar, as you know, there is no security due to political conflict. But in Laos and Vietnam, trade is convenient and both countries are close to China. Chinese citizen businessmen who grew watermelon in Myanmar took their former Myanmar workers to Laos in an illegal manner, paying travel cost. Hiring Lao workers is very expensive." he said.

While seeing a watermelon plantation

The cultivation area of watermelon is about 150,000 acres and Chinese businessmen hire land and grow half of the area. 

Although Chinese businessmen have moved to Laos, the local watermelon market could be hurt a little because the cost has a gap of more than half between growing watermelon in Myanmar and those in Laos.

" The impact on the local market is just a little because Chinese businesses  don't come and grow. Although the cost is just 7,000,000 kyats per acre in Myanmar, if they grow watermelon in Laos and Vietnam, the cost will be 15,000,000 kyats. Rental fee for land and labor charges are low in Myanmar." said Ko Thitsar, a watermelon trader.

While seeing a watermelon plantation

Moreover, because Chinese businessmen have moved to Laos and Vietnam, Myanmar watermelon farmers could enjoy benefits as they could grow watermelons with Chinese technology. So, the farmers would have prospects, said Myanmar watermelon farmers.

Moreover, although transportation is convenient in Laos and Vietnam, Chinese businessmen could enter Myanmar again in the future because rental fee for land and labor charges are higher and the quality of the watermelon grown there in the two countries could not catch up with that in Myanmar.

CNI News

15 November 2024

Although most people have accepted that armed and political conflicts can be solved by using federalism in Myanmar, if some of stakeholders thought beyond federalism, the country could be disintegrated and new countries could be built, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News. 

The EAOs, the government and the Tatmadaw have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) agreed to build a union based on federal and democracy, which has been accepted by political parties.

However, because of political conditions that changed after February 2021, some EAOs expressed their intensions that they could build confederations or separate independent countries.

While seeing the leader of the AA

Neighboring countries didn't want Myanmar to be disintegrated; federalism only would be convenient for Myanmar, said U Thein Tun Oo.

" As the federalism has been designated, a way to federalism is being found. But if there are intensions to go beyond the federalism, Myanmar will be disintegrated and new countries will be built. But its consequences impact on not only Myanmar but also the entire Southeast Asia. On top of that, powerful countries related to them will face problems. Not long ago, regional countries make room for the SAC politically because they know how the consequences can be bad." he said.

If a new country was established within Myanmar, as a government, it would be difficult to carry out administrative mechanism, trade and main tasks of a government, pointed out political analysts. 

While seeing the UWSA

Only if confederation was demanded, could the federalism be typically agreed, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, an NCA signatory, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

" Federal countries are different from their histories and background subjects. Our country must use a kind of federalism. This may be to develop states or rather want to make the central government stronger, like India for example. But confederations and separate countries are just prices that are proposed so that in accordance with a typical federalism, it could be agreed to make states enjoy self-determination that they should get, I think." he said.

The Arakan Army (AA) has said that they will try to get the status that is not less than the United Wa State Army (UWSA) or the confederation.

While seeing EAOs, diplomats and political parties

 At present in Myanmar, the EAOs that have got the confederation status more than federalism are the UWSA and the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA). 

Now the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) has started implementing the confederation.

In the same way, EAOs would have ways of thinking beyond the federalism in 2025, said vice chairman of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) Lt-Gen Gun Maw. 

Moreover, Palaung people must have made preparations to establish a new country if there were situations to do so, said Maj-Gen Tar Bone Kyaw, general secretary of the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) on 18th August 2022.

CNI News

15 November 2024

There are conclusions among military and political analysts which one between Thailand and China will be able to push more to become a good change in the issue of Myanmar. 

China is carrying out enthusiastically for the stability of Myanmar while Thai PM offered the chairman of SAC that Thailand would help in the issue of Myanmar.

As the movement that China would perform could not cover the entire country, the assistance that Thailand would provide could impact more on Myanmar, patron of the PNLO, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

" Thailand has laid down the plan for about three months. It seems that China will support Thailand because the China's supporting can cover only northern groups and it seems that China doesn't pay attention to Mon armed groups, the KNU, the KNPP and other armed groups such as Chin armed groups. But the meeting that will be held in Thailand in December will be able to cover the entire country, I expect." he said.

Thai PM Paetongtarn and chairman of the SAC Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing

Because both countries are neighboring countries of Myanmar and battles were mostly breaking out in the border areas with the two countries,, it would be more important how they would cooperate, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News. 

However, as the US has the influence on Thailand to an extent, China would be able to push more to move Myanmar politics, he added.

" Although Thailand has close relations with Myanmar, as Thailand is very close to the US, while it might have negative views like the US, sometimes it tend to carry out avoiding it. But as China is ruled by the only Communist Party, cooperation with China may be more effective. Success depends on how the implementation will be conducted on the ground." he said.

Chines FM Wang Yi and chairman of the SAC Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing

Former Thai PM met with representatives of the NUG, leader of the RCSS General Yawd Serk, and the representatives from the Karen National Union (KNU), the Karenni National Progressive Party and Kachin National Organization (KNO) in March and April this year.

In the same way, Chinese top officials met with the SAC and discussed the stability, border affairs and the ability to hold the election.

CNI News

14 November 2024

Because the paddy yield was low in a big way as pests destroyed paddy when the rainfed paddy appeared in Mon State this year, farmers are facing losses. 

When the paddy was grown, inputs were expensive and because it rained inopportune time as well as pests destroyed and farmers did not get a good price when the paddy appeared, farmers made more loses, said farmers.

The paddy yield of some farmers was reduced by half, Ko Lwin Aye, a paddy farmer from Paung Township told CNI News.

While the paddy harvested has been piled up

" In the rainfed paddy, there are coarse rice and fine rice. Normally, the paddy for fine rice is produced about 50 to 60 baskets per acre and the paddy for coarse rice, 70 to 90 baskets. Pests destroyed paddy this year. So, fine paddy was produced 40 baskets per acre at most. Coarse paddy was produced 50 to 60 baskets per acre. But the prices don't go up when farmers have to sell their paddy. Farmers are facing losses." he said.

The price of coarse paddy is 1,700,000 kyats per 100 baskets, and that of fine paddy, 2,200,000 kyats. However, agricultural cost was 1,000,000 kyats for an acre. So, a farmer whose farm produced about 20 baskets per acre made a more loss.

Because the price of paddy is low when the paddy yield was low, farmers may find it difficult to grow summer and rainfed paddy.

Most farmers have to sell their paddy although the price is low in order to pay the debts from the bank loans and agricultural costs. Just a few farmers who can store their paddy until the paddy price is higher can make a profit.

CNI News

14 November 2024

Locals of Muse were finding more difficult because carrying goods through the Kyegong-Sinphyu Gate on the China-Myanmar border, philanthropic associations in northern Shan State told CNI News. 

Carrying goods all to the Myanmar side from China through the gate, including trucks, motorcycles and small scale carriages had been banned by China; although the Manwein Gate has been opened by China, Myanmar had closed it, an official of a philanthropic association in Muse told CNI News.

" Departmental meetings are held. But for the time being, Sinphyu and Manwein Gates both have been closed. If they have closed for long like this, locals of Muse and travelers will be in trouble for food. Commodity prices become higher excessively. It's difficult to get fuel and edible oil. I heard motorcars have been banned in Yatsauk. If the goods from Mandalay don't enter Muse, people in Muse will be in trouble for food." he said.

While seeing the entrance to Muse

Although small cars loaded with goods and motorcycles on the Chinese side are waiting in line at the Manwein Gate to enter the Myanmar side, the Myanmar side has not opened its gate. Since battles broke out, the Myanmar side have exported few goods and China only had been exporting its goods to the Myanmar side.

Because any more of border gates had been closed, fuel oil could not be bought and commodity prices were higher. However, because the price of Chinese yuan had not been high was just a bit relief; locals could remain steadfast for just three months if the border gates had been closed for such a long time, an official from the Beautiful Heart philanthropic association told CNI News.

While seeing a China-Myanmar border gate

" If the gates have been closed like this for long, locals can remain steadfast for three or four months because the prices become higher in a row. Although all the gates have been closed, big trucks fully loaded enter the bus terminal every day from the Chinese side. The goods may be consumer ones." he said.

Goods would be allowed to carry through legal channels, notified the border gate office in Ruili, China.

However, the Myanmar side had not allowed to open yet. If the Myanmar side reopened the gated that the China side had opened, it would be a little convenient for locals, suggested the philanthropic associations.

CNI News

14 November 2024

Although most of the people have accepted that armed and political conflicts can be solved by using federalism in Myanmar, some people are asking why the federalism is the best for Myanmar. 

As armed movements and armed groups emerged under the successive governments, democracy and federal problems were needed to be solved, chairman of the People's Party (PP) U Ko Ko Gyi told CNI News.

" Conflicts emerged continuously since Myanmar gained here independence because points and promises that are included in the Panglong Agreement were not implemented. One of the problems is politically ideological. At that period, armed movement of the Burma Communist Party was the biggest. Later, ethnic armed groups emerged based on equal rights and federalism. In 2021, armed groups that are related to democracy. So, it's necessary to solve the problems regarding democracy and federalism. Basic fact of the political problems is the livelihood problem of the people. Because of the inability to solve the problem, dissatisfactions arose among the public. These were mixed with political dissatisfactions, I think." he said.

Federalism was essential in Myanmar. But armed conflicts emerged because of not only political disagreements but also interests, pointed out military and political analysts. 

While seeing the NSPNC and political groups of the UPJDC

Regionally based federalism was the most suitable for Myanmar in implementation of democracy and federal administration, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the SAC during his meeting with the leaders of indigenous militia in northern Shan State on 10h September 2023.

Ethnic armed groups were demanding the rights of their ethnicities in the peace talks and weak in regional demanding; it was necessary to be organizations representing region rather than representing an ethnicity, said chairman of the SAC.

Over 20 representatives from 11 political parties, six EAOs, chairman and secretary of the National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee, and Center for Peace and Reconciliation (CPR) went on a trip to India to study the matters regarding the division pf power between the central government and states, equal rights and self-determination from 4th to 7th November 2024.

If the essence of federalism was understood and its principles were exactly implemented, it could be an answer to Myanmar, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News.

While seeing international diplomats, leaders of the SAC and leaders of the armed groups

" According to the federal theory, states can enjoy self-administration. Mainly, there were not equal rights between Regions and States under the rule of British, which was an ideological problem when Myanmar gained her independence. To solve the problem, if States will enjoy self-administrations and self-determinations in accordance with essence of federalism within the border of the current union and they all will live unitedly, it can be an answer to Myanmar." he said.

However, if stakeholders thought about beyond the federalism, the union would collapse and as a result, a great problem could arise not only in Myanmar but also in Southeast Asia, pointed out military analysts.

Although most stakeholders are making attempts to build a union based on federal and democracy, some EAOs have expressed that they have intended to build confederation and independence.

CNI News

14 November 2024

Battles have been taking place more severely in Rakhine State and as trade sanction has been imposed on the state, the question how to resolve so as not to make Rakhine State face famine has emerged. 

About two million people in Rakhine State could face famine, warned the United Nation Development Program (UNDP) on 7th November 2024.

Trade routes had been blocked because battles were breaking out and political talks were needed to reduce battles, chairman of the Arakan National Network, U Tin Htoo Aung told CNI News.

" Because battles are breaking out, trade routes are closed. This is based on political problem. International organizations should push the two sides to arise political dialogues and come back to the right track for democracy. And all the stakeholders need to talk politically." he said.

While seeing a Yoma short cut between Gwa and Ngathaing Chaung (CJ)

The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) is demanding to remove all the restrictions so as not to cut out the flow of commodities and ban organizations that help and support.

An emergency fund was needed to carry out the tasks that could re-enliven agricultural sector and markets, said the UNDP. 

The people were getting into trouble because the flow of goods and medicine were blocked, U Myo Kyaw from the Arakan League for Democracy (ALD) told CNI News.

" If battles break out in Rakhine State, businesses, flow of commodities and medicines are banned. So, the people get into trouble. Food and medicine are essential. Battles have been breaking out since 2018. We are living on paddy grown here and aqua products. Now we are not allowed to grow paddy and to do business of fishery." he said.

While seeing the Arakan Army     

If agricultural industries and fishery were allowed to work, the people would not face famine, added U Myo Kyaw. 

According to the facts collected in 2023-2024, economy of Rakhine State almost did not operate, said Stephanie Tremblay, assistant spokesperson of the office of the UN Secretary General at the press conference held at the headquarters of the UN in New York. 

At present, battles are severely breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the Arakan Army (AA) in Ann, Taunggoat and Gwa Townships.

CNI News

13 November 2024

A new US government will be formed by Donald Trump who won the election and economic commentators are discussing whether the new government will lift the economic sanctions on Myanmar or not although the US government led by Joe Biden has imposed economic sanctions on Myanmar. 

The Biden government imposed economic sanctions on Myanmar since 2021 when political changes started emerging because it didn't like the administrative mechanism of Myanmar and imposed sanctions on the two banks of Myanmar government in 2023.

However, because Trump is a president who gives priority to economy, whether he would lift sanctions to an extent must be watched, U Aung Pyae Sone, a businessman, told CNI News.

While seeing trade activities

" Trump takes priority to economy than Biden does. Country leaders take first priority to the interests of their countries and other countries are second priority. How can the interests of the US impact on Myanmar? What kinds of opportunities can Myanmar win from its interests? It must be wisely watched by Myanmar. How the new US government could lift sanctions on Myanmar has to be watched." he said.

In the US presidential election held on 5th November 2024, Democratic candidate, Harris was defeated and Republican candidate, Donald Trump won. 

If Harris won the election, the US sanctions on Myanmar would go on and because Trump won the election, the sanctions on Myanmar could be lifted, considered economic commentators.

Although a few sanctions imposed on Myanmar could be reduced under the US government led by Trump, it was unlikely to reduce many sanctions. However, it would not seem to worsen Myanmar, U Htay Aung Kyi, a banking expert, told CNI News.

New US President Donald Trump

" Trump can't do fully whatever he wants. There are many mutual-controls in the US constitution. The President is powerful at the parliament. But in some cases, the parliament is more powerful. Trump hasn't told his ideology yet. His attention to relations in the international environment, democracy and human rights might decrease. Whatever he wants to, there are backbones in the international relation. He won't do anything beyond the backbones. So, it might be unlikely to worsen Myanmar. But it's not possible that many sanctions will be lifted." he said.

As Trump give priority to economy, the US dollar can be strong again and the prices of foreign currencies could go up again, presumed economic commentators. 

In that situation, as there are monetary inflations in Myanmar, prices of foreign currencies could go up more than the current prices. So, the central Bank should have made preparations to control the situation, suggested economic commentators.