CNI News

2 December 2025

As the United Wa State Army (UWSA/“Wa” group) is no longer supplying weapons, People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) are shifting their supply route and establishing links with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), according to military and political analysts who spoke to CNI News.

Previously, PDFs operating in eastern Myanmar were connected through the TNLA, receiving weapons from the “Wa” group. However, since the Wa group is no longer providing arms—and the TNLA has also entered a ceasefire with the Myanmar military(Tatmadaw)—PDF and allied forces are now required to withdraw from Mogok and Momeik.

Regarding the withdrawal from Mogok and Momeik, tensions have reportedly risen between the TNLA and the PDFs. While PDFs are now establishing links with the KIA, this makes the withdrawal process more complicated, said political analyst Saing Mein, speaking to CNI News.

He said:“If the PDF and TNLA do not have clear discussions, clear understanding, and fair negotiations, it won’t be smooth—just like when MNDAA handed Lashio over to the Myanmar military.Also, before TNLA captured Momeik, KIA had already entered and controlled it for more than two weeks.Since Momeik is adjacent to the territories the KIA has controlled, unless pressure is placed on the KIA, and unless KIA decides on a ceasefire like TNLA, things won’t easily settle.Previously in the east, PDFs connected through TNLA. But now the Wa group has announced it will no longer supply weapons to other armed groups and even executed people involved in transporting weaponry.With this situation, PDFs are rerouting and connecting with the strong KIA forces in northern Myanmar. So it’s unlikely that this issue will be resolved easily.”

Lt-Gen Gun Maw with other armed groups

KIA has expanded its strength and operations across northern Shan State, Kachin State, and into Sagaing Region, standing as one of the most powerful ethnic armed organizations.

KIA is also one of the armed groups in Myanmar capable of producing its own ammunition, and it remains a militarily strong organization.

Following the political changes caused by the February 1, 2021 military coup that ousted the NLD government, the KIA was able to further expand its military capacity and widen its controlled territories.

Since the political crisis of 2021, KIA has been providing military training, weapons, ammunition, joint operations, and the sale of ammunition to PDFs and local defense forces (LDFs) in Sagaing Region.

According to Col. Khun Okkar, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO–NCA/S), the KIA is currently cooperating with revolutionary forces based on political needs, but in the future—like the MNDAA and TNLA—it may take different actions if its political situation requires it.

Chin Brotherhood delegation meeting with Lt-Gen Gun Maw

He said:“PDFs need weapons, ammunition, and logistics. If they cannot obtain them elsewhere, they will turn to the KIA, which already has arms factories and can produce weapons and fuel.This means connecting with the KIO can also be for supply routes.

If someday the KIA needs a political settlement, it could change its stance.The KIA is not participating in talks yet. With fighting on the ground, PDFs will naturally try to benefit from the KIA.But if a political solution emerges later, the KIA will consider its own interests regarding the PDFs.For now, they are cooperating out of current needs. If those needs change, the situation may resemble Kokang or Palaung (TNLA). It likely won’t be very different.”

The KIA has been coordinating with PDFs, KNA-Burma (Kuki), Naga armed groups such as ENDA/ENNO and NPDF, ABSDF, AA, and CNDF to strengthen control over multiple areas in Sagaing Region, including Hkamti, Banmauk, Tigyaing, Tamu, Hkam Pat, Phaung Byin, Shwe Pyi Aye, Mawlike, Katha, Kawlin, Pinlebu, and Indaw, as well as across Naga territories.

Furthermore, in August, representatives of Chin organizations—including the Chin National Council (Mindtat), Chin National Front (CNO/CNDF), Zomi Federal Union (ZFU), Chin Defense Force (Kanpetlet), Chinland Defense Force (Matupi Brigade 1), and Mara Territory Council (MTC/MDF)—visited Laiza at the invitation of KIA Vice Chairman Lt-Gen Gun Maw.

CNI News

2 December 2025

The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), which had attacked and captured Mogok in Mandalay Region, said that it had “no words to apologize” to the public regarding its withdrawal and the handover of the town back into the hands of the Myanmar military(Tatmadaw). 

This was stated by TNLA General Secretary Major General Tar Bone Kyaw in a written announcement.

On December 1, 2025, Maj-Gen Tar Bone Kyaw released a poem titled “The Northern Cool Breeze”, in which he expressed this sentiment.

TNLA and allied PDF forces captured Mogok from the Myanmar military in June 2024.

Afterwards, through China’s mediation, the Myanmar military and TNLA held nine rounds of talks in Kunming, China throughout 2025, and both sides agreed that TNLA forces would withdraw from Mogok and Momeik.

Tar Bone Kyaw’s written statement.

According to this agreement, TNLA ensured full security and escorted the Myanmar military back into Mogok on November 29, 2025, officially handing the town over.

As a result, the PDFs that had cooperated with TNLA in the offensive also had to withdraw from Mogok and Moemeik, and they were cautioned not to continue launching attacks.

CNI News
29 November 2025

The new government that emerges after the election needs to be flexible, gentle, and decisive, said Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), to CNI News.

In Myanmar, the 2025 general election will be held in three phases: Phase (1) on December 28, 2025,Phase (2) on January 11, 2026, and Phase (3) in the last week of January 2026.

After these elections, state power will be transferred to the winning party, and the military will take responsibility only for national defense, according to Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the National Security and Peace Commission.

The public hopes that the new government formed after the election will work for the benefit of the nation. Sai Htay Aung stated that this upcoming civilian government must be flexible, gentle, and decisive.

He said:“People can have high expectations for the new government. Why? Because the government will be responsible for making things much better than the current situation.This new government will be formed by the people’s vote. So, it must dutifully serve the responsibilities entrusted by the people, with love and devotion for the country and the public.But there will be major responsibilities ahead. There will be a lot of reconstruction to do — both physical reconstruction and mental reconstruction.For that, the government must be flexible and gentle, but also decisive. When it decides to carry out something, it must follow through. It must have the courage to make firm decisions by considering the faces of the country and the people. Only then will this new government be able to bring stability and peace and build development.”

 Political parties meeting

Political observers warn that if the civilian government emerging after the election cannot exert authority over the administrative mechanism, the country may once again have to rely on the military.

Sai Htay Aung added that although the new government will face difficulties, he does not believe it will encounter challenges worse than the current crisis.

He said:“I don’t think the new government will face a situation worse than now. Why? Because on one side, the NUG has already fractured.And the PDFs, who were committed to changing the country through armed struggle, have been disappointed. Since they are discouraged, I don’t think the new government will have to face more difficult challenges than the present.”

 Political party leaders at a meeting

However, Colonel Saw Kyaw Nyunt, spokesperson for the 7 EAO Alliance, said it will be extremely difficult for the public to place high expectations on the new government.

He said:“It will be very difficult to have high expectations on the government that will emerge after the election.Why? Because this election is being held in an abnormal political situation that our country has never experienced before.So whatever emerges from this will not immediately lead to the peace, democracy, and federalism that the people long for. However, through international cooperation and pressure, or through new pathways that open up even in difficult circumstances, some level of hope may still arise.”

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing also said that the upcoming election will bring a turning point for the country, and that people must elect those who safeguard Our Three Main National Causes.

CNI Article

28 November 2025

By Chit Min Tun

Sagaing Region and Chin State, located in Myanmar’s northwestern area, have become well-known since after 2021 as territories dominated by revolutionary forces and rebel groups.

This is in contrast to the years before 2020, when Sagaing Region and Chin State were generally peaceful, stable areas where such revolutionary or rebel groups could not exert control.

However, after 2021, so many revolutionary/insurgent groups emerged, and armed conflicts escalated to the level of town-capture battles. As a result, hundreds of thousands of civilians were displaced and forced to flee the conflict.

Consequently, people were unable to continue their agricultural and livestock activities, and trade flows were severely disrupted. This led to price inflation and shortages of essential goods.

In addition, citizens holding Sagaing Region ID (5/) or Chin State ID (4/) have faced strict inspections when traveling to other regions.

These conditions have resulted from ongoing instability and warfare across the entire northwestern region.

Towns controlled by armed groups

To bring an end to the conflicts and restore stability, the Northwest Command (NaMaHka) holds primary responsibility. Therefore, it must answer a critical question: How will the NaMaHka Command manage and resolve the dominance of revolutionary/insurgent groups across the northwestern region?

As this question remained unanswered — and due to alleged abuses of authority and corruption — Northwest Command Commander Brig-Gen Myo Min Htwe was arrested in November 2025 and removed from his post.

After his removal, Maj-Gen Kyaw Thu Ya was appointed as the new Commander of the Northwest Command.

Thus, Commander Maj-Gen Kyaw Thu Ya now faces the task of prioritizing the cessation of hostilities and restoration of stability in Sagaing Region and Chin State.

The NaMaHka Command is expected to attempt to retake the towns under insurgent control in Sagaing Region, such as: Indaw, Banmauk, Pinlebu, Shwe Pyi Aye, Hkamti, Kham Pat.

It must also prioritize control over the major highways, including: Monywa–Mandalay Highway, Shwebo–Mandalay Highway, Mandalay–Shwebo–Myitkyina Highway.

Additionally, the command may attempt to secure the Tamu–Kham Pat–Monywa route and the Himawinta Road.

Similarly, if the NaMaHka Command manages to secure the access routes from Sagaing Region into Chin State, it may attempt further offensives into Chin State areas dominated by insurgent forces.

KIA–PDF joint forces

However, the command still faces major questions:

Does the Northwest Command have enough manpower to launch these operations? If not, how will they gather or consolidate additional forces? Which forces will they ally with to strengthen their capabilities?

In Sagaing Region, the following groups currently act as intermediaries or maintain a presence:

Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA)၊ NSCN-K/AM၊ NSCN-K/YA၊ NSCN-IM၊ NSCN-IM/HS၊ Meitei armed groups.

Kuki Nationalities Army (KNA/KNO), ENNO/ENDA and Naga PDF are fighting against the Tatmadaw.

Meanwhile, numerous PDFs from townships such as Homalin, Hkamti, Phaung Byin, Mawlike, Tamu, Kale, Mingin, Kantbalu, Indaw, Banmauk, Shwebo, Monywa, Yinmabin, Pale, Wetlet, Tigyaing, Kham Pat — operate under, or in alliance with, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), engaging in attacks against the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw).

Similarly, the Arakan Army (AA), ABSDF, Karen National Union (KNU), and Chin National Front (CNF) are active in Sagaing Region and are also attacking the Myanmar military.

Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA)

Inside Chin State, the Zomi Revolutionary Army (ZRA/ZRO) and Kuki armed groups maintain a neutral stance, while CNF, AA, and various Chin-ethnic PDFs continue to fight the Myanmar military.

With so many revolutionary/insurgent groups dominating the northwestern region, it is extremely difficult for the Northwest Command to bring stability or end the conflicts — making it a highly complex problem.

In any case, Sagaing Region and Chin State will never return to their pre-2020 conditions.

This is because there are now hundreds of armed groups, and there is no possibility of fully disarming them.

For this reason, the challenges for the Northwest Command will likely persist even after the elections.

Whether the command can find a solution during or after the election period remains to be seen — otherwise, this situation will continue to be a major headache for the Northwest Command.

CNI News

28 November 2025

The National Defence and Security Council (NDSC) announced on 26 November 2025 that 2,361 prisoners who had been convicted under Section 505(a) of the Penal Code and were serving sentences in various prisons, jails, and detention camps have been granted amnesty, with their remaining sentences reduced.

In addition, 724 prisoners who were also convicted under Section 505(a) and are currently serving sentences in prisons, jails, and detention camps have been granted a conditional reduction of their remaining sentences.

The condition states that:“If they commit another offense in the future, they will have to serve not only the new sentence but also the remaining portion of their current sentence.”

The NDSC stated that the purpose of granting this amnesty is to enable all eligible voters to cast their ballots freely and fairly in the upcoming multi-party democratic general election.

CNI News

28 November 2025

The Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) has prepared ways to handle and resolve the current hardships faced by the public, according to USDP spokesperson U Thein Tun Oo, speaking to CNI News.

In Myanmar, Part (1) of the general multi-party democratic election will be held on 28 December 2025, Part (2) on 11 January 2026, and Part (3) in the last week of January 2026.

USDP spokesperson U Thein Tun Oo said that the party has plans to address the difficulties and hardships currently affecting the people.

He said:“Mainly, for commodity price stability—if the people choose us and vote for us, we guarantee price stability.And for a more stable and peaceful environment,We have systems and methods prepared, and we will implement them together with our programs. Among the many points included in our election manifesto, we prioritize these two.For example, if we talk about regular electricity supply:if the people support the organization that has workable methods,that organization must already have calculated and prepared ways to provide regular electricity.If the people choose and entrust us, we already have methods for ensuring regular electricity supply.Other parties may also have their own plans.

 Armed group leaders, military and civilian leaders together

It depends on the situation on the ground.It’s difficult to say how long it will take, but we will work with the best and fastest methods.”

Currently, the public is suffering from rising commodity prices and higher cost of living, lack of job opportunities, irregular electricity supply despite higher meter fees, and other issues.

People also face illegal arrests under the conscription law, extortion, weak rule of law, crimes such as theft and robbery, unsafe travel, and illegal activities by armed groups, according to public feedback.

Despite these hardships, most political parties have not yet given clear and strong commitments during their campaigns that they will solve these problems.

During the campaign period, most political parties have not been able to give strong promises to resolve the people’s current difficulties, said Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP).

USDP party conducting campaign activities

He said:“Almost no party has been able to give such guarantees.For now, the only party speaking boldly about these issues seems to be the USDP.They're talking about it a lot. But people are also considering whether they can really deliver.Based on what the people demand, political parties can’t meet those demands yet.After the election, once the parliament (Hluttaw) emerges, the people’s voice will also emerge.If parliament exists, it will speak. The government will then be able to act.At present, one person alone controls all three branches of power.After the election, when the three branches operate separately,
there will be a check and balance system.When that time comes, once the people’s voices emerge,many of the difficulties faced by the people will significantly improve.”

In the upcoming election, USDP is seen as having advantages due to the support of the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw), as well as due to the election laws, political party registration laws, and the widespread armed conflicts, according to political observers.

Observers inside and outside the country have noted that the upcoming election in Myanmar will be an election in name only, and that regardless of the results, the outcome will be a government led by the military and the USDP.

CNI News

28 November 2025

Naing Aung Ma Ngay, spokesperson of the New Mon State Party (NMSP), told CNI News that the NMSP is not exerting any pressure on political parties or Mon voters competing in—or participating in—the upcoming multi-party democratic general election in Mon State.

He said:“We don’t know what the Mon public’s opinion will be. They will continue exercising their own political rights as they wish. As for us, we have nothing to object to regarding this election. In our area as well, we haven’t seen building the polling stations yet. We also do not apply any pressure. Those who want to go [vote] can go; those who want to stay can stay. They can decide freely. We do not interfere or tell anyone what to do.”

The New Mon State Party (NMSP) was founded on July 20, 1958. It signed a bilateral state- and union-level ceasefire agreement in February 2012. Later, it signed the nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA) on February 13, 2018.

In the upcoming election in Mon State, the competing political parties include:
– Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP)
– People’s Pioneer Party (PPP)
– People’s Party
– Shan and Nationalities Democratic Party (White Tiger Party)
– National Unity Party
– Myanmar Farmers Development Party
– Mon Unity Party (MUP)
– Pa-O National Development Party

NMSP Deputy Chair Naing Aung Min meeting Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in May 2022

Naing Than Shwe, the spokesperson for the Mon Unity Party (MUP), which will also contest in Mon State, told CNI News that the NMSP has not obstructed the election process.

He said:“We don’t know much about the other parts, but mainly, the NMSP—which is an NCA signatory—does not obstruct the election. Because participating in elections is the work of political parties, they don’t interfere and haven’t imposed any restrictions. We don’t know about the positions of the other armed groups. We also don’t know what situations might arise. We cannot know their internal matters.”

After Myanmar’s 2021 political change, an NMSP breakaway faction called the NMSP–Anti-Dictatorship (NMSP-AD) emerged. Subsequently, four new Mon armed groups also appeared:

– Mon Liberation Army (MLA)
– Mon National Liberation Army–Anti-Dictatorship (MNLA–AD)
– Mon State Defense Force (MSDF)
– Mon State Revolutionary Force (MSRF)

 MSDF leader Dr. Thiri Mon Chan meeting with the public

These four groups operate collectively under the “Mon Army” and have carried out military activities.
Additionally, in Mon State, KNU forces and NUG-affiliated PDFs are also active.

The Mon State Federal Council (MSFC) has announced that individuals participating in the upcoming election—including Mon candidates and those involved in supporting or facilitating the election—will be arrested and prosecuted.

This includes:
– Standing as a candidate in the election
– Campaigning for oneself or for any organization or individual
– Assisting or supporting campaign activities
– Any participation contributing to the election’s success

The MSFC has declared that all such individuals will be subject to arrest and action.

CNI News

28 November 2025

Karen People’s Party (KPP) Chairperson Daw Nant Khin Aye Oo told CNI News that their party does not make election-time guarantees to win votes if they cannot truly deliver them to the public.

As Myanmar’s election period approaches, political parties are making various promises in their campaigns in hopes of gaining public support.

KPP Chairperson Daw Nant Khin Aye Oo said that their party will not give guarantees they cannot actually fulfill just to gain votes.

Karen People’s Party (KPP) during their campaign activities

She said,“We cannot just say things in advance. And this current conscription law is something set by the State, a law established since General Aung San’s era. However, it does need to be implemented systematically. If it reaches Parliament (Hluttaw), any party will have to work on it. But when a party says it will do something, it must be something it truly can do. We do not make promises we cannot fulfill just to win votes. After experiencing three eras of democracy, there are things that can be done and things that cannot. In a five-year term, how much can really be achieved depends greatly on the capacity of the elected MPs. Some people say ‘Give us your vote and we’ll do all this afterward,’ but some of those things are untouchable — they really cannot be promised.”

Political observers note that the public has lost trust because some political parties fail to address the difficulties people are facing and only start giving big campaign speeches when election time arrives.

The KPP Chairperson also said they are hearing many special promises being made by other parties, but emphasized that their party does not follow others blindly.

Karen People’s Party (KPP) during their campaign activities

She stated,“There are things the country needs. So we must work as best as we can for our people, within our capacity. When others give guarantees, there is the question of how far they can actually deliver them. We don’t make such big guarantees. These matters are things MPs must coordinate and work together on. When we talk about such matters, we cannot treat them as big promises. But we must still speak and act on matters that should be addressed. Everyone knows what is happening in the country right now. The next government will have to solve these issues. Our party is not one that gives popular vote-grabbing guarantees.”

Myanmar’s Election Part (1) will be held on December 28, 2025. Election Part (2) will be held on January 11, 2026, and Election Part (3) will be held in the last week of January 2026, according to the statement made on November 10 by Major General Zaw Min Tun, spokesperson of the National Defense and Security Council.

CNI News

27 November 2025

In Myanmar, after the multi-party democratic general election is held, the policies of the new government are unlikely to change and will most likely continue along the path currently being led by the Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services, according to a political analyst who spoke to CNI News.

“Just as most people assume, the general expectation is that the post-election government will follow the same path the Commander-in-Chief is taking now. Whether the USDP forms the government or whether C in C Min Aung Hlaing himself becomes president, political, military, and peace-related policies will not undergo any major changes. That is my view.”, he said.

Under former Senior General Than Shwe, an election was held and state power was transferred to the government led by U Thein Sein, during which Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was released and many political reforms took place.

Signing of the NCA during U Thein Sein’s administration

Later, during U Thein Sein’s administration, Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) contested the by-elections under the 2008 Constitution, and peace negotiations with ethnic armed groups were also pursued.

According to political and military analysts, because it is already widely predicted who will likely become president after the election, no major changes are expected once the new civilian government takes office.

One analyst added: “The path set under the 2008 Constitution isn’t necessarily bad. But the degree of change depends on the policies of the president who takes office after the election. Based on present assumptions, major changes are unlikely. We don’t know who will become president yet — it could be someone from the USDP, or U Min Aung Hlaing may continue as president. If there is no major shift, the country’s direction will depend heavily on him. Right now, we can already predict who wants to be president. That’s why we do not expect significant changes under the next president.”

USDP party

After more than four years since the 2021 political crisis, the first phase of the election is scheduled for December 28, 2025.

The second phase will take place on January 11, 2026, and two weeks later, the third phase will be held, according to Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun, head of the press team of the National Defence and Security Council, who announced this on November 10.

If the post-election government is formed in the style of a national unity government, analysts believe some policy changes may become possible.