CNI News

24 March 2025

Myanmar people only must resolve the armed and political conflicts that were breaking out in Myanmar and foreign aid was just peripheral, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs commentator, told CNI News.

ASEAN has a chance to tackle the crisis that is getting worse; it urgently needs to take exact and decisive actions, reported the National Unity Government (NUG) on 19 March 2025.

Myanmar people must judge political and revolutionary situations correctly and because the foreign aid was just peripheral, it would not be able to decide, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs commentator, told CNI News.

" Our revolution must rely on our people. If we rely on ASEAN, it would be just peripheral because only if all the ten countries agree, can they make a decision. Other countries have problems of their own as well. We have to analyse political and revolutionary situations. We have to think and decide for ourselves what we should do next. Foreign aid is just peripheral. I will never be able to make a decision. Domestic strength only can decide. Local revolutionary force can decide." she said.

While seeing Chinese Special Envoy Deng Xijun and the SAC Chairman

Although she said that foreign assistance was just peripheral, China has been deeply involved in Myanmar's domestic affairs, some pointed out. With China's brokered engagement, the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the Kokang force (MNDAA) reached a temporary ceasefire and there were discussions between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the TNLA.

In the same way, with China's brokered engagement, the AA and the SAC would meet and discuss, according to those close to both sides. China would cooperate with the SAC to be able to hold elections while Russia and Belarus supported holding elections and would send their delegates to Myanmar to study elections, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

There are pro-China members and pro-American members in ASEAN, so there are no clear-cut decisions, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.

While seeing the ASEAN delegates

" Some members of the ASEAN are pro-China and others, pro-American. So, they have no clear-cut decisions. Although the ASEAN has laid down five point consent regarding Myanmar, the military council never abided by the consent. If the military council complies with it, the SAC has no problem with it. ASEAN has no mechanism as well to take action against the SAC. So, ASEAN hasn't resolved the Myanmar problem in practice for over four years." he said.

The National Unity Government (NUG) has announced that now is the time to take decisive action to restore justice, peace, and dignity to every citizen of Myanmar.

Although internal conflicts can only be resolved by the domestic revolutionary forces, conflicts also exist due to the different interests among the revolutionary forces. point out military and political analysts.

CNI News

24 March 2025

Although head of the Bangladesh government, Muhammad Yunus said that Muslim refugees would be sent back to Rakhine State in 2026, it was impossible in practice, political commentators told CNI News.

He would make an attempt to ensure to ensure that Muslim refugees could celebrate next year's Ramadan Festival in their native places in Rakhine State, said Mohammed Yunus during a visit to the Cox's Bazar refugee camp in Bangladesh with UN Secretary-General Guterres on 14 March 2025.

Although there might be discussions to repatriate Muslim refugees, it would not be easy to do so, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs commentator told CNI News.

While seeing Muslim refugees

"It seems they understand that this issue needs to be resolved. I can't say whether it's easy or not to implement what he said. Bangladesh is really worried about the Rohingya issue. But it's impossible to accept the refugees at once. AA also said it would discuss this as a temporary solution. It's not easy for the AA to really accept the refugees. Even the people in Rakhine State still are finding it difficult to resolve their livelihood problem." she said.

He believed that It was necessary to discuss the repatriation of Muslim refugees in Bangladesh with the Arakan Army (AA), said the UN Secretary General Guterres on March 15, 2025.

After that, leader of the ARSA and nine other suspected members were arrested by the Bangladesh government, reported the news agencies based in Bangladesh on 18 March 2025.

To send Muslim refugees back to Rakhine State during 2026 might be the Bangladesh's expectation; if Rakhine State was free from the Myanmar Tatmadaw in 2026, the AA could carry out the repatriation of Muslim refugees, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.

While seeing leaders of the AA

" This is the Bangladesh's expectation. If Rakhine State is free from the troops of the military council in 2026, the AA may carry out the repatriation of Rohingya refugees. It is likely that Yunus said, anticipating Rakhine State will be free from the Myanmar Tatmadaw in 2026. Because Bangladesh considered that it should restrict the movement of the ARSA, it arrested the leader of the ARSA. In cooperation with the international community, the AA could plan the repatriation of the refugees in 2026." he said.

The Myanmar government and local authorities had a lot to do to ensure that Muslim refugees could return home with dignity, said Mr. Md. Touhid Hossain, advisor for Foreign Affairs of Bangladesh government.

Because of battles that broke out during 2017, about 1.2 Muslim people fled to Bangladesh and they have been staying in Bangladesh as refugees, according to news reports.

However, the Myanmar government has said the number of refugees was less than 1.2 million.

CNI News

22 March 2025

Peace talk called Peace Talk 2025 that is led by the National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) reportedly will be held in Naypyidaw from 24th to 26th March 2025.

The peace talk would be divided into two groups and different topics would be discussed. Group-1 reportedly would discuss politics and security sectors and Group-2, economy and the state development sectors.

Because the talk probably would be widely held, a good prospect for the peace of Myanmar would arise,  vice chairman of the National Democratic Force Party told CNI News.

" Many people have been invited to the talk. Myanmar's peace process and prospects as well as sectors related to economic resilience during reducing conflicts will be widely discussed. People from the business and security sectors will participate in the discussion. And delegates from EAOs will discuss in the talk as well. After this talk, the Myanmar peace process has potential to improve." he said.

While the NSPNC and political parties were discussing

Members of the National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC), former senior officials from the Tatmadaw, delegates from the Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee (JMC), delegates from EAOs, political parties, those involved in the peace process, director generals from ministries and observers reportedly will participate in the talk. 

Through these discussions, the peace process in Myanmar could move in a positive direction, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP) Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News.

"This meeting could help the peace process in Myanmar move in a positive direction. I think they will discuss peace in Myanmar, current political developments, the need for stability, the election, the government that will come into power after the election, the economy, social, and the civil war. The public probably will be given an answer after the talk. The results gained from this talk may be presented to the government and it may figure out the shapes that will go forward because the SAC has already announced that elections will be held in December 2025 or January 2026. After elections, a power transfer will arise. So, before these processes, the talk could produce an answer to the public and the government." he said.

While Myanmar delegates and Indian scholars were discussing federalism and constitutional issues at the India Centre on 18 March 2025

The political parties said the talks that would be held in Nay Pyi Taw are aimed at achieving a domestic political settlement before the election, national reconciliation, participating in a peaceful election, working together in accordance with the constitution, and making good plans for the country's future.

Battles are severely breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and resistance groups across the country. There were nearly 20 million people who needed humanitarian aid; One billion US dollars would be needed for the humanitarian aid, according to the UNOCHA.

Meanwhile, the SAC Chairman Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing has requested local ethnic people to urge their EAOs to find an answer through political means.

CNI News

22 March 2025

It could not be convenient for the State Administration Council if it held dialogues with ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) under a single title, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI New. 

The political goal of the National Unity Government (NUG/PDF) is different from that of EAOs.

Although it was possible if a dialogue was held under the title of ceasefire, follow-up negotiations could be more complicated, said U Thein Tun Oo.

While seeing leaders of armed organizations and the SAC Chairman

"What title will we discuss under? Shall we discuss under the title of peace? If you look at what are happening currently, the reason why the NUG and PDFs have arisen is that they believe the Myanmar Tatmadaw has unjustly maintained power. But the political goal of EAOs is different from that of the NUG/PDFs. Under what title they will discuss depends on the attitude  of organizations concerned. In fact, although it is possible if they discuss under the title of ceasefire, follow-up negotiations could be more complicated. Because the goals of each organization are different from those of other organizations, separate discussions will be needed, I think." he said.

According to the 2008 constitution, the SAC could solve Myanmar's political problem through holding elections and at the same time, it could use the dialogue as well, some considered.

While seeing the NUG-PDF

While there were instabilities in the entire country, dialogues and peace talks were just few, spokesperson of the 7 EAO Alliance, Col. Saw Kyaw Nyunt told CNI News.

" For the time being, the war framework is too spacious and the political framework is too narrow. While there are instabilities in the entire country, political dialogues and peace talks are just few." he said.

After the Myanmar Tatmadaw took power in 2021, armed conflicts have expanded more. And then,  in 2023 and 2024, territorial dominance of EAOs became bigger.

The SAC Chairman reportedly has planned to hold elections in December 2025 or January 2026.

While there were instabilities across the country, if elections were held, elections could be held in one third of all the townships only, pointed out political commentators.

CNI Article
21 March 2025

Write by Chit Min Tun

Amid the changing political landscape after February 1, 2021, Sagaing Region that was peaceful and stable in the past has become filled with battles. The war in Sagaing Region reduced Myanmar's rice reserves and caused food shortages in the region.

Prices of goods have risen sharply, causing difficulties for the local people in terms of food and livelihood. The worst thing is that due to battles, many locals in Tigyaing, Yinmabin, Pale Pinlebu, Katha, Kawlin, Indaw, Banmaunk, Homalin, Tamu, Kalay, Khampat and Shwe Pyi Aye Totwnships have become IDPs and they have lost their houses.

Although unarmed civilians get into various troubles, armed people make a lot of money and can live very well. Because Sagaing Region is very rich in natural resources, various armed groups are earning a large amount of money from the permits for the extraction or production of natural resources.

What armed groups are active in Sagaing Region? What resources are available in the region? What types of armed groups are active in what part of region? These things should be studied.

When seeing a map showing the location of armed groups' bases and movements

Firstly, let's study what armed groups are active in Sagaing Region. There are the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (there are at least six Naga armed groups in Sagaing Region), the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA), the Meitei armed group (PLA, MPA), the KIA, the AA, the ABSDF, and the KNU.

Moreover, the Chin National Front, the Zomi Revolutionary Army (ZRA/ZRO), the Kuki National Army-Burma (KNA-B), the PDFs under the NUG, the Burma National Revolutionary Army (BNRA), the People Liberation Army (PLA-Communist), the 96 Soldier led by Ko Zeyar Lwin, the Chin National Defense Force (CNDF) and local PDFs as well as  Militia Forces under the Myanmar Tatmadaw are also active in Sagaing Region.

As the second point, natural gas, petroleum, precious stones, gold, copper, timber, white silver, chromite, platinum, coal, iron, rare earth and so on are produced in Sagaing Region.

For example, timber, gold, gas (it has not been dug out), petroleum (it has not been dug out), white silver, rare earth (it has not been dug out), coal etc. are produced in Homalin Township, according to geological surveys.

In the township, the SNA and the Homalin People's Defense Force (HPDF), the HPDF-124 and Khamti District Battalions are active and a few KIA forces are also there. However, the SNA has controlled 80 percent of the township.

Seeing the Shan Red National Army (SNA)

In the same way, in Khamti Township, precious stone, gold, coal, petroleum ( still not dug out), gas (still not dug out) and other natural resources are produced. The SNA, the NSCN-K/AM, the Naga People's Defense Force (NPDF), the Eastern Naga National Organization (ENNO/ENDA) are active in this township.

Moreover, gold, gas (still not dug out), coal, nickel, chromite, copper and platinum are produced in the Naga Self-Administered Zone and the Naga-India border areas.

In these territories, the NSCN-K/AM, the NSCN-K/YA, the NSCN-IM, the NSCN-HS, the SNA, the ENNO and the NPDF are active.

Moreover, in Tamu Township, gold, gas (still not dug out), coal, nickel, chromite, copper and platinum are produced, according to geological surveys. In the township, the Meitei armed groups, the SNA, the NSCN-IM, the NSCN-HS, the KNA-B, the Tamu PDF and the CNDF are active.

Moreover, natural resources are produced in Kalay, Lalaywa, Mingin, Yinmabin, Pale, Shwebo, Monywa, Kani, Mawlike, Tigyaing, Katha, Banmauk, Indaw, Kawlin, Wuntho, Pinlebu and Shwe Pyi Aye Townships and a variety of armed groups are active in these townships as well.

Therefore, Sagaing Region has become the region where the most severe armed conflicts are taking place and neighboring countries are interested in getting natural resources from the region at lower prices.

As Sagaing Region borders not only India but also China, the two countries may be interested in natural resources in the region.

If there are instabilities within Sagaing Region, it may be a disturbance for India and because Naga and Meitei armed groups whom India considers to be Chinese agents, and other armed groups are active in the region, India might watch the situation carefully.

While showing the armed movement in Sagaing Region

It is interesting to see how India will approach a large number of armed groups within Sagaing Region to be able to extract natural resources or implement investment projects.

However, in comparison with China, India is slower to approach armed groups within Myanmar. So, whether China will win India by a neck is very interesting.

On the other hand, the SAC Chairman Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing reportedly offered Russia to invest in extracting jade in Khamti Township, Sagaing Region during his trips to Russia and Belarus.

If a balance of power arose among powerful countries due to resource extraction goals, it would be worrying that battles would be intense within Sagaing Region.

So, powerful countries will have to take regional armed groups into account if they invest in resource extraction because a variety of armed groups are active within Sagaing Region and there have been different territorial controls.

Meeting with the Chairman of the National Assembly and Russian President Putin

However, as the SAC imposed the private security service law on 19 February 2025, if foreign countries make investments in Myanmar, they will be able to provide security by arming themselves with their own plans to protect their companies, staff, projects and investments.

Locals are worried that proxy wars will break out in Sagaing Region from the competition for resources among powerful countries.

At present, battles are severely breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and armed groups as well as among armed groups in Sagaing Region.

If the battles within Sagaing Region are analysed, battles are breaking out between the armed groups - the PDFs, the BNRA, the 96 Soldier, the KNU, the PLA, the KIA, the ABSDF, the CNDF, and the Myanmar Tatmadaw, militia, Pyusawhti forces in Pale, Yinmabin, Monywa, Shwebo, Wetlet, Chaung U, Mingin, Kantblu, Kyun Hla, Kalay, Kalaywa  and Kani Townships in the power part of Sagaing Region.

In the middle part of Sagaing Region, battles are breaking out among the AA, the ABSDF, the KIA, the PDFs, the CNF, the CNDF, the SNA, the Meitei armed group, the NSCN-IM and the Myanmar Tatmadaw in Mawlike, Kawlin, Tigyaing, Khampat, Pinlebu, Wuntho, Tamu, Phaungbyin, Indaw, Katha and Banmauk Townships.

In the same way, in the upper part of Sagaing Region, battles are breaking out between the SNA and the KIA-PDF joint forces in Homalin, Khamti, Leshi, Htan Par Khway, Lahe, Donhee, Nanyun, and Pansaung Townships.

Seeing the joint KIA and PDFs forces

On the other hand, the KIA and the NUG are trying hard to seize control of the entire Sagaing Region. However, the SNA is a hindrance for them.

So, the KIA and the NUG might try to overthrow the SNA by fighting against or offer a dialogue to the SNA. If the KIA and the PDF can win the SNA militarily, there will be no need to discuss and will have resolved so as not to make the SNA exist in the future.

After discussing with the SNA, if the NUG and the KIA can make allies with it, they will capture the entire Sagaing Region as soon as possible.

If armed groups were able to seize control of the middle and upper parts of Sagaing Region, it would help to control the Northwest Command of the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the entire Chin State.

And then, the military operations by armed groups within Mandalay and Magway Regions could also be accelerated by support from within Sagaing Region.

Considering all these situations, the future of Sagaing Region may still be far from being free from war.

In any case, what will happen to the future of Sagaing Region or the land rich in natural resources will be watched.

CNI News

20 March 2025

According to the current situation, the State Administration Council was trying to protect against the country's enemies without the ability to construct the country, said the SAC Chairman Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

He said the above in his message sent to the 51st Anniversary Celebration of the Mon State Day that fell on 19 March 2025.

"Today, we can see developed countries have been firmly built with unity. In accordance with 'The country's strength lies within the country.' The country must be built with domestic strength; but according to the current situation of our country, we are trying hard to protect with domestic strength against the country's enemies without the ability to build the country. So, stability is weak and development is still far away." said the SAC Chairman.

Because of the attacks by EAOs and the PDFs in various regions, infrastructure of the state was being damaged and the people were losing their lives and properties, he added. 

" Every citizen should be careful that there are supports and agitations from local and abroad behind the terrorist acts and it's time to take lessons from sufferings and troubles that result from the breakdown of unity." said the SAC Chairman.

He urged ethnic armed organizations and other armed groups that were waging battles and that were conducting unrest and violence to stop their actions that were getting the people into trouble and that endangered the country for the sake of the country and the people.

All citizens should unite and protect the country based on the spirit of the Union, said the SAC Chairman Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing. After saying that the NLD party was tr trying to form a government without solving the vote list dispute in the 2020 general election, the Myanmar Tatmadaw overthrew the NLD government on 1 February 2021 and announced the state of emergency. 

And then, the State Administration Council and a caretaker government were formed and the country has been ruling until 2025. The SAC can't still lift the state of emergency.

EAOs, MPs, the NLD leaders and democracy activists are carrying out armed resistance against the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the SAC to overthrow them because the Myanmar Tatmadaw has taken the State power.

These armed conflicts are severely taking place in Myanmar's Sagaing Region, Magway Region, Mandalay Region, Ayeyarwady Region, Bago Region, Tanintharyi Region, Shan State, Karen State, Chin State, Mon State, Kayah State, Rakhine State, and Kachin State.

Because of these battles, there have been over three million IDPs while nearly one hundred thousand houses and buildings were burned down or destroyed, and inter-regional travel is also lacking in security.

CNI News

20 March 2025

Everyone is watching with interest what the Myanmar representatives have gained for reforming Myanmar from the discussion with Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), India's first independent international affairs think tank.

Over 40 Myanmar people, including officials from 12 political parties, Lt-Gen Min Naing of the NSPNC, officials from five EAOs and former MPs, and the ICWA discussed federalism and constitutional issues.

The discussion was held at the India Centre of the Embassy of India in Myanmar on 18 March 2025. Mainly, he happened to know India's negotiating skill,  Vice Chairman of the National Democratic Force (NDF) U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News.

" Long story short, we saw India's negotiating skill there. There is just an If you don't get what you want , fight for it' mindset here in our country. It's not like that in India. For over 70 years, the Indian government has patiently negotiated, bit by bit, as much as it can. Now, this is quite successful. India experienced terrorism and armed resistance as well. India has promoted political negotiation as much as possible. It had to conduct a lot of negotiations and compromises." he said.

They discussed constitutional frameworks and federalism, India's experience in managing a multi-ethnic and multi-lingual federal system, issues of all-inclusive governance and power-sharing, and Indian federalism and ethnic diversity.

While seeing Indian scholars in the discussion on federalism and constitution on 18 March 2025

Issues that could be resolved through political means by meeting and discussing constitutional and ethnic issues in the armed conflict areas were discussed and shared, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP) Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News.

" Why is their constitution perpetuated up to now? One point after another was enacted in advance after arguments. Now they are being implemented. Our country is still studying drafting or amending constitution including India's constitution. I think we have to study one point after another that will suit our country. We have ethnic problems because our country is made up of various ethnic groups. So, how have they enacted laws regarding ethnic groups? They are living harmoniously without any conflicts. How did they find political solutions in the territories where armed conflicts were taking place. These things were shared." he said.

When discussing with Indian scholars, he happened to know two points and firstly India was worried that the central government would collapse, and secondly, it wanted everyone to support and correct the establishment of democracy in Myanmar, said a politician close to local and foreign diplomats.

Administrative and political elements from Myanmar went to India from 5th to 7th November 2024 to discuss federal issues. Follow-up discussion of the trip to India was held at the India Centre in Yangon, Myanmar on 18 March 2025.

Moreover, federalism and constitutional issues were to be held again in Naypyidaw, said political parties.

CNI News

19 March 2025

Leader of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), a militant group, Ataullah Abu Ammar Jununi and nine other suspected members were arrested by the Bangladesh government on 17 March 2025, reported on the website of the bdnews24.com. 

Along with Ataullah, Mostaq Ahmed, Asmat Ullah, Md Hasan, Salimullah, Asmat Ullah were included in those arrested. Ataullah was arrested while he visited Muslim refugee camps in Cox's Bazar district, Bangladesh. 

The ARSA attacked 30 police stations in Buthidaung, Maungdaw and Rathedaung Townships, Rakhine State in 2017 and killed Hindus and other ethnic groups in those regions as well. 

And then, the Myanmar Tatmadaw had to launch a clearance operation.

CNI News

19 March 2025

It was time for the State Administration Council to consider how to exit from politics, chairman of the Pa-O National Federal Council (PNFC) Khun Myint Tun told CNI News. 

According to the current political situation of Myanmar, questions are emerging how much territories or opportunities the central government could give to EAOs while some pointed out that the SAC had no right to give territories or opportunities to EAOs.

It was a misconception that SAC had the right to give territories or opportunities to EAOs; now was the time for the SAC to consider how the Myanmar Tatmadaw would exit politics, said Khun Myint Tun.

"The military council also thinks it has the right to give territories or opportunities. It's just a misconception. Now the military has staged a coup d'etat. Because the military has staged a coup d'etet, the military, which has no right to discuss politics, and the military council formed by the military, have no right to do those things. Mainly the military has to do now is that the military must consider how to exit from politics." he said.

While seeing leaders of armed organizations and Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing

How much the central government could give territories or opportunities to EAOs played an important role, U Khun Sai who is taking part in the peace process, told CNI News.

" In the past, we demanded the Tatmadaw to withdraw from politics in the peace process. Then, the Tatmadaw asked EAOs if it withdrew from politics, would EAOs  continue to hold arms? The Tatmadaw said that it wouldn't withrew from politics as long as EAOs have maintained weapons. So, after both sides negotiated, we drafted a 15-year plan at that time. We were negotiating how both sides would withdraw from the armed phase. it's not done yet until the Third Union Agreement is reached. We would have to continue the discussion for the fourth time. Meanwhile, this coup d'etat took place." he said.

Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) must negotiate what should be without demanding what were impossible, said the SAC Chairman Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing on the plane that returned from Russia and Belarus on 9 March 2025.

While seeing leaders from the TNLA, the AA and the MNDAA

EAOs and democratic elements have been demanding the Myanmar Tatmadaw to withdrew from politics and give up the 25 percent seat in Hluttaws as well as to keep the Myanmar Tatmadaw under the civilian government.

The Arakan Army has said that it wants a political status that is not lower than the status the UWSA has gained or it might try to gain the independence.

The Ta'ang National Liberation Army has demanded to designate all the territories that it has captured during Operation-1027 as Palaung State while the UWSA has demanded to designate its territories as the Wa State not to mention its administrative power it has gained at present.

The KIA has warned that it would conduct the discussions beyond federalism.