CNI News
1 February 2025
Although China could only directly intervene in the northern ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and influence on them, it was not easy for China to directly intervene in the southern EAOs, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.
Although China was putting pressure, since the Northern Alliance (AA,TNLA,MNDAA) has already taken the military lead, although dialogues or ceasefire could be conducted between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and three northern allies, it wouldn't be likely for southern EAOs to do so, he said.
" China has no its influence on southern EAOs because Thailand bordering southern part of Myanmar and southern EAOs are pro-American elements. They don't like China so much. It's not easy for China to intervene in the southern part of Myanmar. According to the current situation of Myanmar, it's impossible to meet and discuss because the military council doesn't stop terrorism. Northern EAOs especially the MNDAA had to cease fire unavoidably because of China's pressure and moreover because the MNDAA has taken the military lead. It's impossible to do so in the southern part." said U Than Soe Naing.
While seeing leaders from the Northern Alliance
China has made attempts to end armed conflicts on the Myanmar side bordering China and it met and discussed with the northern three brotherhood alliance (AA,TNLA,MNDAA).
Moreover, China is putting pressure to implement peace talks between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the three brotherhood alliance.
As a result, three northern allies released their statements separately to meet and discuss with Myanmar Tatmadaw.
The MNDAA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw met and discussed in December 2024 and in January 2025.
And then, a temporary ceasefire agreement was reached between the two sides.
While seeing Chinese FM Wang Yi and Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the SAC
However, China only announced the agreement and the two sides concerned did not. In this way, China's intervention obviously could be seen.
Although China could not directly influence on southern EAOs, it could indirectly through Thailand, U Khun Sai who is taking part in the peace process, told CNI News.
" Regarding the ceasefire agreement between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the MNDAA, relevant EAOs didn't announce the agreement. China only announced it. So, in this case, China's intervention looks bigger. It's hard to say about the TNLA because the discussion between the TNLA and China started not long ago. Southern EAOs have closer relations with Thailand. So, if China wants to influence on these EAOs, it can directly deal with them or through Thailand." said U Khun Sai.
In southern Myanmar, armed groups such as Karenni, Karen, Mon, and Rakhine are also active, as are PDF.
