CNI News

3 January 2025

The news that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi probably will be released on 4th January (the Independence Day) was coming out and regarding that, there are considerations and opinions among political and military analysts whether she will be released or not. 

If DASSK was released, opportunities for national reconciliation could come out, U Khun Sai, a person taking part in the peace process, told CNI News.

" I always pray for Daw Suu's speedy release. If she was released, pressures on the C in C could be reduced. Secondly, opportunities for national reconciliation could come out. Battles can be reduced to an extent. The public will feel relieved as well. So, if possible, we'll have to welcome her release." he said.

International community should put pressure on the SAC effectively for the release of all political prisoners including DASSK and U Win Myint, requested the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP) on 1st January.

In September, the Pope called for the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and Aung San Suu Kyi has also been offered refuge in the Vatican.

As DASSK who had been detained was important to the national reconciliation, Singaporean FM demanded to release DASSK immediately at the end of the formal discussion held in Bangkok, Thailand.

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi

The chairman of the SAC was decisive regarding DASSK; if she was released, he was worried that the public would be more active. 

So, she didn't think he would release DASSK, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a Myanmar-China affairs commentator, told CNI News.

" Some people say that (Sr-Gen) Min Aung Hlaing is too decisive. Rumor has it that DASSK will be released, which I think it's a new broadcast from the military council. It might relax the public anger. Because the Myanmar Tatmadaw is losing in a big way, there is also discontent within the Tatmadaw. I think it's news that relieves some of the pressure. I don't think she will be released because DASSK might not say what the military council likes. And the military council might be worried that the public will be more active if DASSK is released." she said.

DASSK has been detained since 1st February 2021 and she has been sentenced to 33 years in prison on 19 counts. 

She was given a six-year pardon on 1st August. 

Sh De is currently serving a total of 27 years in prison for the remaining 14 counts. 

DASSK will be 80 years old in June.

CNI News

3 January 2025

Even if talks between the Arakan Army (AA) and the Myanmar Tatmadaw took place, it was unlikely to succeed, said military and political analysts. 

The AA announced that it would discuss and solve the domestic problem through the political means on 29th December 2024.

Political talks were held at China's request and as they were practically related to the interests of war, the talks could not succeed, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.

" EAOs are fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw mainly because they want their region to free from the military council. When they succeed to a large extent, they have to hold peace talks that China has put pressure on them to do so. But because political talks are practically related to the interests of war, any political talk was not successful. But when China that wants to make room for the military council told EAOs to hold peace talks, they discussed. In practice, any result did not come. The MNDAA discussed with the military council. But the discussion was broken. The discussion between the AA and the military council that will be held will be broken as well." he said.

While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing

Political dialogues were invited and welcome; attitudes and comments gained from discussions with EAOs and political parties would be recorded in order to be able to approve in the Hluttaw that would be formed in future, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the SAC in his message speech to the Karen National New Year's Day that fell on 30th December 2024.

Because the AA's demands might be high in the discussion, military tensions could resume, U Thein Tun Oo, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies, told CNI News.

" Both sides no longer have the desire to take up arms. When they are at the roundtable, they will reduce the armed conflict step by step. And then, if it's convenient, they will be on the peace path. Otherwise, if they chose the armed means, when either side was totally defeated, it could be peaceful. In the current situation, the AA that has deemed that it has won the war will demand things higher. If they didn't gain what they want, military activities might emerge. During a long discussion, it will take a rest, re-gather sources and re-group. And then, military tensions will resume." he said.

While seeing a comrade of the AA 

Although the AA had no desire to secede from the Union, it wanted the level that was not lower than the confederation, said U Khine Thukha, spokesperson of the AA at the press conference held on 4th March 2024.

Although some EAO leaders were saying that they wanted federalism and ethnic rights, in practice they were trying to disintegrate the Union, said chairman of the SAC in his New Year Speech on 1st January 2025.

Among 11 Chinese Projects in Rakhine State, the AA has controlled 11 projects, reported the ISP-Myanmar on 28th December 2024.

CNI News

3 January 2025

Although some EAO leaders said that they wanted federalism and the ethnic rights, they were trying to disintegrate the country, ignoring the nature of democracy, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC). 

He said the above in his New Year's greetings to the country on 1st January, 2025.

Although armed group leaders were saying that they wanted democracy under various titles, in reality, they were only creating armed conflict based on selfish desires, said chairman of the SAC.

" Some ethnic leaders are saying that they want federalism and ethnic rights, they are trying to disintegrate the country, ignoring the nature of democracy. They'd better carry out what is possible in a democratic manner, weighing what they want to be and what should be, hoping for the benefit of the Union. Because the common goals and paths are different, armed conflicts have not yet been resolved." said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

To resolve these issues, stakeholders needed to be strong-minded and walk the path of democracy. 

The people also needed to push the armed groups to return to the path of democracy, he added.

Battles have been breaking out severely between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and armed groups across the country since on the first of February, 2021. 

During the battles, the Myanmar Tatmadaw has lost control of several hundred military camps and over 90 townships including the Northeast Command and the West Command.

The Arakan Army (AA) that has controlled several townships is proclaiming to gain the confederation or independence that goes beyond federalism.

In the same way, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) that has seized control of seven townships in northern Shan State and is supporting arms and ammunition to armed groups in other Regions and States is carrying to collapse the central government, which military and political analysts point out.

The National Unity Government (NUG), the NUCC, the CRPH and the PDFs which are the elements of the Spring Revolution are waging battles to overthrow the Myanmar Tatmadaw.

CNI News
29 December 2024

Although Suzuki Ertiga cars that are being remanufactured, using the Semi Knocked Down (SKD) system, are being sold, because the selling price of the car, it can't impact on the car market, according to the people in the car market.

Because the original price was around 1,000 lakh, the car market was being watched; at present, the car was being sold and bought at 1,500 lakh to 2,000 lakh.

So, the prices of used cars were less likely to fall, secretary general of the Myanmar Automobile Manufacturers and Distributors Association, U Kyaw Swar Tun told CNI News.

" At present, a new Ertiga car whose price was announced 1050 lakh kyats before is being sold and bought. Supply and demand are in balance. So, the prices of used cars are less likely to fall. If the price of the new car is sold and bought at a little over 1,000 lakh kyats in practice, other cars are very likely to fall. Because the car is sold at 1,500 lakh kyats, I don't think the prices of other cars will fall a lot." he said.

In the current car market, a Suzuki Ertiga is being sold and bought at above 1,000 lakh kyats. In the domestic car market, transactions are only made by agreement between the seller and the buyer and Japanese cars including SUZUKI cars and Chinese cars are also popular.

" At present, the car that is announced that it will be sold at 1,050 lakh kyats today may be its price will be 1,032 lakh kyats. According to the agreement between the sellers and the buyers, cars are being sold and bought between 1,500 lakh kyats and 2,000 lakh kyats." said a car market commentator.
About 100 SUZUKI Ertiga cars which are produced with the SKD system will soon enter the market and a lot of the cars could enter the market in early 2025, estimated car market analysts.

The prices of cars in the domestic market will not fall unless the car import policy is changed, according to car market sources.

CNI News
29 December 2024

Although some Chinese media covered that India was supporting the Arakan Army (AA), it was impossible, said military and political analysts from Myanmar.

The Indian government government and the Indian Army have extensive contacts with the Rakhine armed group, the AA, stated a Chinese media.

Because the data was incomplete and the probability was very low, it was impossible that India was supporting weapons to the AA, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News.

 
" Both China and India share borders with Myanmar. They might use the AA, the KIA and the MNDAA to create a proxy war if they want to. But the EAOs can change to various sides if there is another country which supports more. It's the nature of non-state actors. Creating a proxy war is very dangerous. There is a point to be considered how India will support a group that has already been declared a terrorist group or non-state actors. It's impossible that India is supporting weapons to the AA because the data is incomplete and the probability is very low. But this assessment may change if new information comes to light." he said.

While Mizoram State MP and the AA's regional leader were meeting

The AA has captured 13 townships in Rakhine State and it is now severely waging offensives to Gwa Town; there are Sittwe, Kyauk Phyu and Manaung only left to be captured, announced the AA.

Moreover, assessments - as the Kaladan Project passes Paletwa Township, Chin State as well as Kyauktaw and Ponnagyun Township, Rakhine State and ends in Sittwe, India has to talk with the AA - have emerged.

Although India might not support the AA politically and militarily, it could negotiate with organizations concerned so as not to damage its Kaladan Project, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

" Chinese media said that India supports weapons to the AA. I don't know if they have any evidence, either. I don't think India supports the AA. But the Bangladeshi Foreign Affairs Officer said that Bangladesh won't talk with non-state actors the other day. The meaning of non-state actor is very important in politics. Because the AA is a group of non-state actors, India doesn't seem to support the AA. But it might negotiate with organizations or companies concerned so as not damage the Kaladan Project. India might contact the AA in some way." he said.

While seeing the Kaladan Project

It was impossible that India was supporting the AA; The India's foreign policy had prevented to do so, a senior official taking part in the peace process of Myanmar told CNI News.

The accusation that India was supporting the AA was only the misinformation and it was just a political propaganda, said the Indian diplomatic circles.

Mizoram MP Pu Valalvena and officials of the AA discussed the matter regarding building the road between Mizoram State, India and Paletwa, Chin State on the border of the two countries on 29th February 2024.

The meeting might be lower level negotiations regarding the Kaladan Project and sending the AA's wounded soldiers to India to receive medical treatment as well as the security for civilians on the border, considered military analysts.

CNI News
28 December 2024

If the Arakan Army (AA) had captured the whole Rakhine State, Muslim armed groups including the ARSA might seek refuge in Bangladesh, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.

The main enemy of Muslim armed groups was not the Myanmar Tatmadaw, but the AA, said a Muslim troop, which was stated in a news article published by Reuters in November.

" These groups are fighting against the AA because the military council instigated them. They have been organizations that have been on the sidelines since the beginning. So, if the AA has already captured the whole Rakhine State, they would have sought refuge in Bangladesh. They can't exist strongly." said U Than Soe Naing.

While seeing the ARSA

Muslim armed groups including the ARSA emerged gradually in the battles that resumed since 13th November 2023 between the AA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw. It had to be clearing Muslim armed groups, the ARSA, ARA the RSO which were being active around Buthidaung and Maungdaw Townships, announced the AA in October 2024.

The RSO, the ARSA and the ARA have set foot strongly in the May Yu mountain ranges and they were committing arrests, killings, abduction for ransom and extortion, reported the AA.

These groups could emerge or disappear at any time and the organization behind the scene was the main, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

While seeing former Bangladeshi PM Sheik Hasina

" These armed groups can appear or disappear at any time. In fact, the organizations behind the scene are the main. When the Myanmar Tatmadaw is weak, the SA.C takes out and uses the groups that it can use. When I went underground to become a rebel in 1972, the Myanmar Tatmadaw contained mostly Chin and Rakhine people as well as Bamar people in the upcountry. The basic solid backbones were Chin and Rakhine people. But now that they are fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw, the efficiency of the Myanmar Tatmadaw has declined. When the Chin and Rakhine which have had military capability since before fight patriotically, more effective, I think. But military isn't an answer. So, finding an answer through political means will arrive at last." he said.

Muslim armed groups which were fighting against the AA had recruited by the thousand from the refugee camps in Bangladesh, stated Reuters.

A powerful white country was making an attempt to build a new country, detaching some territories from both Bangladesh and Myanmar, said former Bangladeshi PM Sheik Hasina on 28th May 2024.

CNI News

28 December 2024

Those who shot U San Ngwe, administrator of Home Lan Buta Ward (Holm Street Station Ward), Sanchaung Township, Yangon Region had been arrested, reported the State Administration Council (SAC) on 26th December 2024.

U San Ngwe was shot while he was in his office on 24th December 2024 and those who shot him ran away. Zaw Zaw Bo (B) Tun Tun Aung and May Myat Thinza Kyaw who shot U San Ngwe were arrested in their home, Aung San Ward, Insein Township at 9:15 pm, on 24th December 2024 with a pistol and five bullets as well as a white taxi, said in the statement.

According to the testimony of those arrested, Kaw Zin Oo (B) Kyaung Sayar who was included in the shooting was arrested in Yay Dwin Gon Village, Htantabin Township with a pistol, 14 bullets and a grenade at 10:15 pm. And then, Sai Naung Htet (B) R Gyi who was included in the shooting was arrested in his home in No.3 Ward, Hlaing Thar Yar Township (East) with a pistol, 33 9mm bullets and two smoke bombs on 25th December, said in the statement.

Among those arrested, Kyaw Zin Oo, Kyaung Sayar, Zaw Zaw Bo and May Myat Thinza Kyaw were members of the Free Land Attack Force (FLA) which had 15 members and the leader is Ne Myo Nwe who lives in Maesot, Thailand.

Ne Myo New asked his members to shoot U San Ngwe on 22nd December and the FLA bombed Municipal Administration Offices including the Electrical Manager's Offices in Insein and Tamwe Townships. 

Moreover,  they exploded the CCTV box near the Min Dhama traffic lights on Thamine Street, Mayangone Township which those arrested said, reported the SAC.

CNI News

27 December 2024

Because of India's change of rice policy, despite the decline in world rice prices, it has not impacted on the Myanmar rice market, according to Myanmar rice traders.

Although India banned broken rice export in 2022 and a 20% tax was imposed on white rice exports, at present India has allowed rice exports.

Although India sold white rice at 490 dollars per ton in the past, it is currently selling white rice at 430 dollars per ton. 

As Myanmar has sold a lakh tons of rice  to Bangladesh with the G to G system, at present, because of the India's rice policy, it has not yet affected the Myanmar rice market, an official from the Myanmar Rice Traders Association told CNI News.

" I heard that India will reduce the price of rice when they sell it. The prices of export rice will fall in the world market. So, the prices of rice in the domestic market also could fall. And then, the exchange policy must be taken into account. We have sold 100,000 tons of rice to Bangladesh with the Government to Government trading system. But our rice market has not been hurt. The rice market will be going regularly until summer rice is produced. The amount of export rice is almost the same as previous years." he said.

While seeing a rice shop

Due to the change of the India's rice policy, the prices of rice fell by 10 percent in the world market. 

The prices of Myanmar export rice also could fall. So, it is necessary to lay down proper policies regarding the export rice.

It was necessary to control the market by trading through the G to G system, U Than Aung, a rice trader, told CNI News.

" The Myanmar rice market isn't hurt so much at present. But later, if we haven't sold rice anymore, the market may cool down a bit. If we have sold rice to Bangladesh through the G to G system, the market will be going regularly. The market has been controlled." he said.

It was necessary for Myanmar to expand its rice market to some African and Mideast countries with less Indian influence, suggested market analysts.

Myanmar is the eighth most rice exporter among the ten most rice exporters in 2023-2024 and it exported 1.8 million tons of rice.

CNI News

27 December 2024

If battles broke out in Ayeyarwady Region, the largest producer of rice, famine could surely occur, those who do business of agriculture and market advisors told CNI News. 

The Arakan Army (AA) was able to capture Ann Town and is waging battles against the Myanmar Tatmadaw to take over Gwa Town.

So, the AA could expand its war fronts from Ann to Magway Region as well as from Gwa to Ayeyarwady Region, pointed out military and political analysts. 

If battles spread to Ayeyarwady Region, it would not be easy for other agricultural regions to sufficiently distribute food to the entire country, said a farmer to CNI News.

While seeing Ayeyarwady Region

" Farmers in Sagaing Region are fleeing to safety due to the battles and they can't grow regularly. So, domestic food security is being threatened. If the battles spread to Ayeyarwady Region, the same situation will emerge. And then, It's more likely to experience famine if the battles from Rakhine State to Ayeyarwady Region, the largest producer of rice. Paddy is grown in Pyinmana, Tatkon and around them as well as Shwebo in Sagaing Region. Yangon and Bago Regions grow more pulses and so does Monywa." he said.

Farmers in Sagaing Region where agricultural industry is mainly conducted have not been able to grow for over three years due to territorial instabilities. 

So, the people have to depend mainly on the rice produced in Ayeyarwady Region. 

While seeing a rice warehouse

Although they said that there was enough reserve rice, it could not be eaten for many years, Ko Zaw Min Naing, an agricultural and business advisor, told CNI News.

" They always say they have enough reserve rice, according to the Myanmar Rice federation and officials concerned. But it can be eaten for a period of, I think, six months only. I heard not long ago that exporting rice is suspended and domestic food security will be given priority. This is likely because there is a need for rice reserves, I think. If the production of rice is no more, the people will get into trouble." he said.

Ayeyarwady Region produces 0.37 lakh baskets of rainfed paddy and over 13 lakh baskets of summer paddy from which over 4,000 lakh baskets of paddy are produced.