CNI News

28 February 2025

Only after political agreements that can solve Myanmar's political problems were reached, should a general election be held, chairman of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) U Sai Nyunt Lwin told CNI News. 

The election would be held in 2025 and the State power would be handed over to the winning party; because of territorial instabilities, elections can be held separately by region, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing. 
If elections were held in the SAC controlled areas, as the civilian government would not be able to influence the whole country, the situation could get worse, pointed out military and political analysts.

So, a political dialogue should be held first, said U Sai Nyunt Lwin.

While the SAC Chairman was meeting with political parties

" In my opinion, it's necessary to hold a political dialogue. In accordance with the agreement from the political dialogue, elections were held, some of Myanmar's problems would be solved. It could be an all-inclusive election. Now, elections that the SAC will hold will include those who support one side only. Because Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is in prison at the moment, her role won't be involved. Those who support her want her to be released. The SAC won't be able to do so." he said.

However, the SAC hasn't announced exactly the date when elections will be held even though the SAC has said that it will hold elections in 2025. Although peace talks are being held, as an all-inclusive situation cannot be created, it is unable to reach consensus that is acceptable to all.

Currently, the opposition, the SAC, and ethnic armed groups are talking about dialogue, but there is no consensus,7 EAO Alliance spokesperson U Naing Aung Ma Ngay told CNI. 

He said that a political dialogue should be opened up to all ethnic armed groups and political parties that deserve to participate so that a general election that could solve all the situations could arise.

While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing

"Let's open the way for all stakeholders who deserve to be involved in a political dialogue. NCA signatories, NCA non-signatories, all political parties including those that have not yet been registered should take part in the dialogue, which is the best way to find a solution. The SAC, EAOs and the NUG are talking about dialogue, but there has been no consensus." said U Naing Aung Ma Ngay.

Although the SAC Chairman Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing announced that a general election would be held in August 2023, it could not be held. He had promised that the election would be held in 2025, but later he said that there needed to be peace and stability throughout the country so that a free and fair general election could be held.

Because battles are severely breaking out across the country, it is much less likely to hold the election, pointed out military and political analysts.

CNI News

27 February 2025

In Myanmar's political landscape, armed organizations that were revolutionizing the dictator became individuals, chairman of the Tai-Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP) Sai Htay Aung told CNI News.

" Those who are revolutionizing the dictator become individuals who are worse than the dictator. The jungle armed groups are using illegal shooting, killing, and killing to intimidate the people and rule. Only the people suffer. In the current issue, when the people are in trouble, no development has happened. While revolutionizing the dictatorship in 1962 and 1988, there were bad incidents that communists committed. How much of the country's above-ground and underground resources have been lost in today's crisis? The state didn't get much of these resources and neither did the people. Most resources have been taken by armed organizations and their cronies." he said.

During a territorial dispute between the KIA and TNLA, while troops from both sides were punching one another with fists and kicks

Since the political changes of 2021, the number of armed resistance forces in Myanmar has increased more than ever. 

In order to find a solution through dialogue,The SAC has discussed only with two EAOs - the MNDAA and the TNLA. Although a ceasefire agreement has been reached between the SAC and the MNDAA, there has been no agreements between the SAC and the TNLA.

Although EAOs didn't want the 2008 constitution, the SAC was discussing maintaining the 2008 constitution. As long as the SAC has maintained the 2008 constitution, it won't be to achieve peace, pointed out military and political analysts.

Because there were many territories that EAOs have captured, temporary ceasefire only could be discussed, chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP) Sai Htay Aung told CNI News. He wanted to achieve eternal peace through any more discussions. He wanted to achieve eternal peace through more discussions, he added.

While seeing an anti-dictator movement

"The ceasefire is a step forward in the peace sector. More discussions must be conducted for the next step, which is our desire. Even though we don't achieve the entire peace, because of the ceasefire, people's lives will become easier. We want eternal peace through more discussions. According to EAOs, peace cannot be achieved under the 2008 constitution. The SAC has maintained the 2008 constitution. So, it's not easy to achieve peace. In any case, because we are all citizens, we'll unavoidably make an attempt to achieve peace." said Sai Htay Aung.

Although there were discussions to amend the 2008 constitution under former civilian governments, they were not successful; the current political landscape could not be changed by simply amending the 2008 constitution, some people pointed out.

CNI News

27 February 2025

EAOs no longer want democracy so much, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP) Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News. Some EAOs have expressed that they want the confederation level that is beyond democracy while others have warned their people to get ready to establish new countries of their own if the country fall apart.

So, according to the current political and military crises of Myanmar, federalism should be implemented as soon as possible, said Dr. Aye Maung.

" EAOs no longer want democracy so much. Wa (UWSA) is ruling its region with the one-party system. The AA has said that it will go with the unitary union system. Practically, EAOs will surely take self-governance and self-determination. It is the goal of all armed organizations rather than democracy. There is no democracy in the Wa region. It's the system that is led by only one party. But there may be democracy within the party or social democracy. So, we sholud implement federalism as soon as possible if we understand military and political crises." he said.

While seeing the UWSA

Region-based federalism must be used and it was the most suitable in implementing democracy and federalism, said the SAC Chairman Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing on 10th September 2023.

It is not enough for ethnic groups to simply demand self-governance and the right to shape their own destiny; they must govern the people democratically, spokesperson of the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA) U Myp Kyaw told CNI News.

"We cannot accept the idea that when others rule, you will revolt and then you will become dictators when you rule. Ethnic groups demand self-governance and self-determination. It's not enough for them to simply demand these things. To serve the people, they must be given the right to choose. So, democracy must be used surely. We must continue to revolutionize the dictator who became a dictator by revolutionizing the dictatorship. Some people will accept the dictatorship if the system" benefits them," he said.

While seeing former chairman of the KNU and chairman of the RCSS General Yawd Serk

The Arakan Army (AA) has expressed that it wants the confederation as the lowest level and the establishment of the Rakhine country at the highest level while general secretary of the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) Major General Tar Bone Kyaw has warned the Palaung people to get ready for the establishment of their country of their own if needed.

Ethnic groups would think beyond federalism in 2025, said Lt-Gen Gun Maw, vice chairman of the KIA, during his meeting with Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.

The UWSA and the NDAA have built separate administrative systems and are existing independently and they are outside democracy and federalism, pointed out military and political analysts.

CNI News

27 February 2025

Political problems of Shan State and Myanmar would be resolved through discussion, released the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS). The RCSS urged stakeholders to hold face-to-face dialogues to build a federal democratic union on 25th February 2025.

The annual meeting of the RCSS was held in Loi Tai Leng, headquarters of the RCSS on 24th and 25th February in 2025 and the RCSS urged it.

"For the long-term sustainability of peace and the establishment of a federal democratic union, we strongly urge relevant organizations to meet face-to-face to discuss and resolve the problem." said in the statement of the RCSS.

They would continue to work with local communities in rural areas and townships to implement local governance, said the RCSS. When the RCSS was active in northern Shan State, joint forces from the TNLA, the SSPP and the UWSA fought against the RCSS after which the RCSS had to retreat from northern Shan State to southern Shan State.

In collaboration with the AA, the PDFs, the BPLA, the PLA, the KNDF, the DPLA, the MDY-PDF and the BNRA, the TNLA and the MNDAA launched Operation-1027 on 27th October 2023, and attacked and captured Lashio, Chin Shwe Haw, Phaungsai, Monkoe, Laukkai, Kon Kyan, Kyukote, Theinni, Kutkai, Thibaw, Namkham, Nansang, Mangtong, Mong Ngor, Monglong, Namtu, Kyaukme, and Nawnghkio Townships including the Northeast Command of the Myanmar Tatmadaw.

In the same way, battles are breaking out between the PNO/PNA and PNLO/PNLA-PDF joint forces in southern Shan State while the RCSS has made military preparations, getting footholds in militarily important places, said locals.

Territorial disputes are emerging among armed groups - the TNLA, the KIA, the MNDAA, the UWSA, the RCSS, the SSPP, the PNLO and the PNO.

CNI News

27 February 2025

Wa (MNDAA) and Myla (NDAA) have acquired territories without being consistent with the 2008 constitution and used different administrative systems, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

Because the State Administration Council (SAC) is ruling the country under the 2008 constitution, when EAOs demand the territories that they have attacked and captured, it is impossible for the SAC to officially give the territories for the sake of peace, some people pointed out.

Although the SAC is ruling the country under the 2008 constitution , because it has allowed the Wa and the Myla to rule their regions with different ruling systems, which are questioned by some people.

According to the 2008 constitution, territories cannot be given to EAOs, different administrative systems have been given to the Wa and the Myla groups. In the long run, amendments could be conducted to give territories within the framework of the constitution, said Col. Khun Okkar.

While seeing the SAC Chairman and the 2008 Constitution

" Peace can only be achieved through political agreements that emerge from political dialogues. Because there are just pre-negotiations, EAOs expand territories and are demanding the territories to officially give them. But according to the 2008 constitution, the SAC can't give them. But the Wa and the Myla have different administrative systems. It's not consistent with the 2008 constitution. Although territories cannot be given according to the constitution, as there are things that have to be let go somehow, negotiations might arise. So, in the long run, the constitution could be amended in order to give territories officially. The current discussions are not on the same level. Some groups talk about territories. It is related to the constitution. Other groups don't accept the constitution. Ceasefire is needed so that these two cases can be discussed anymore." he said.

Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing urged armed groups to renounce weapons; he would not comply with the demand of armed groups using armed means; they would have to run the election and demand officially from the Hluttaw; armed groups were trying to gain power regionally; so, the SAC would have to continue to wage the war, he said.

While seeing Lt-Gen Ko Ko Oo from the Myanmar Tatmadaw and Vice Chairman of the TNLA, Lt-Gen Tar Jock Ja

Those problems could not be resolved by fighting and it was necessary to resolve by dialogue, U Khun Sai who is taking part in the peace process, told CNI News.

" These problems cannot be solved by fighting. A problem cannot be solved by saying this is my country or my territory because those who can't give territories will fight back. The best way is to solve with dialogue. Rather than a debate, dialogues should be held for peaceful coexistence. If the problems are solved by armed means, the World War might end, Myanmar war cannot end." he said

The Myanmar Tatmadaw and the MNDAA signed a ceasefire agreement with China's brokered engagement, said Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Miss Mao Ning at the regular press conference on 20 January 2025.

After the ceasefire agreement, the MNDAA forces must retreat from Lashio, and Kutkai, Theinni, Kunlong and Laukkai Districts have been designated as the Special Region-1 by the Myanmar government; said an administrative official from the MNDAA on the Chinese New Year Day in video file which spread on social media.

In the same way, the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Myanmar Tatmadaw discussed in Kunming, China on 16th and 17th February 2025, but the discussion ended without any results.

There were reports that the TNLA demanded to officially recognize 16 townships that it has captured during Operation-1027 as the TNLA's townships in the discussion.

At present, the Myanmar Tatmadaw has lost control of the Northeast Command, the West Command and several hundred military camps including over 90 townships.

CNI News

26 February 2025

It is important that armed domestic or foreign private security companies that do not get involved in Myanmar's internal affairs, U Khun Sai who is taking part in the peace process, told CNI News.

The law relating to private security service that allows domestic or foreign security companies to carry weapons has been imposed under Section. 419 of the 2008 constitution, reported the State Administration Council on 18th February 2025.

It was important that these companies did not get involved in the country's affairs by securing security for their own interests. Moreover, there should be rules and regulations about it, said U Khun Sai.

While seeing the UWSA

" If the security companies are allowed to carry the weapons, there should be rules and regulations. It's always important that they don't get involved in the current affairs of the country. When the English established the British Empire, they started from commerce. They formed defense forces to protect their interests. To give a clear example, The British did business in India, they only protected their interests. But when they were familiar with the land owners, the British had to help their land owners when the land owners made war with other landowners. And then the British became more powerful and at last were able to capture the entire India. And then, the British arrived in Myanmar. Everyone must take care of this history so as not to be repeated" he said.

According to the law relating to the private security service, 75 percent of the staff of a licensed security company must be Myanmar nationals. If the company applies for a permit to carry weapons and ammunition, it must submit it to the National Defense and Security Council.

According to Section.42 (B) of the 2008 Constitution, no foreign troops will be allowed to be stationed in the country, allowing security companies to carry weapons is not consistent with the constitution, some people pointed out.

While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing

The bylaw has not been issued; if the law relating to private security service was implemented without consideration of the country's sovereignty, the national interests could be hurt in the long run, general secretary of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) told CNI News.

" The bylaw hasn't been released yet. What he (the SAC chairman) wants to do might not be consistent with the constitution. The bylaw must be imposed. The law could be imposed by his order. If he did it to ensure his continued power and his security without considering how much it could affect the future of the country, it could hurt the national interests in the long run." he said.

The law relating to private security service came out after the formation of a committee led by the Deputy Minister for Home Affairs on 22nd October 2024 in order to sign the proposal that would build a China-Myanmar Joint Security Company.

CNI News

26 February 2025

Political parties needed to have negotiated in advance in order o better shape federalism and democracy, vice chairman of the National Democratic Force Party, U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News. 

The public's trust in political institutions is declining federalism and democracy because they are only using federalism and democracy for organizing purposes, pointed out some people.

At present, political parties and the National Solidarity and Peace Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) are negotiating and although several agreements have been reached, only when Hluttaws could be convened, could amendments be conducted. So, they have not have been carried out at once, vice chairman of the NDF U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News.

While the NSPNC was discussing with political parties

" They just talk about federalism and democracy to make people like. But they can't be put into practice. As part of a solution, we (political parties) discussed with the NSPNC. 43 points of agreements have been reached.  These agreements must be submitted to the Hluttaw, which are amendments to be conducted only in the Hluttaw." he said.

The NSPNC and the Working Group of the political parties discussed on 23rd and 24th Jabuary 2025.

43 points were agreed at the discussion and the point ' Myanmar is formed as a Union based on democracy and federalism' was agreed to enact in the constitution. Seven points were under discussion and there were more submissions to amend, said chairman of the People's Party (PP) U Ko Ko Gyi at the press conference on 26th January 2025.

Political organizations and figures were responsible to put federalism and democracy into practice, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP) Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News.

While seeing political parties and the SAC Chairman

" Federalism and democracy - democracy was talked about. Federalism was talked about by ethnic groups. The mainland talked about socialist democracy. In this way, it's been almost 80 years. These two words were used for organizational purpose only. But thsese words were not put into practice. For that, we'll have to put blame on political figures and institutions." he said.

Better implementation of better federalism and democracy could be conducted by negotiation among political parties in advance, said vice chairman of the National Democratic Force (NDF). 

" If all the parties that are running in the election now have negotiated in advance, we'll have a bolder federalism. By coordinating in advance among all political parties on how they will shape up after the upcoming elections, we can achieve a better federal form, a better democratic form with political essence, I think." he said.

However, at present some EAOs want one-party or unitary union systems rather than democratic system, pointed out political analysts.

CNI News

25 February 2025

EAOs that didn't want to renounce armed policy were trying to gain power by territory, said the Commander in Chief of the Defense Services Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing. 

He said the above at the graduation ceremony of the Thura Company of 124th intake of Officers Training Course of Defense Services (Army) Officers Training School (Bahtoo)
on 21 February 2025.

At present, some EAOs that didn't want to renounce the armed policy collaborated with the NUG, The CRPH and PDFs, and they are using terrorist and armed methods under
the pretext of political issues to instill fear in the people and expand controlled areas, said the SAC Chairman.

" Armed terrorist insurgents are carrying out to gain power by region rather than walking on the multi-party democratic path achieving eternal peace with the people." said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

The Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) has controlled Namkham, Nansang, Mangtong, Mong Ngor, Mong Long, Kyaukme, Nawnghkio, Thibaw, Kutkai, Namtu in northern Shan State as well as Mogok, Momeik and Mabein in Mandalay Region during Operation 1027.

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) has controlled the Northeast Command of the Myanmar Tatmadaw including Lashio, Theinni, Phaungsai, Kon Kyan, Laukkai, Chin Shwe Haw and Mongko during Operation-1027.

In the same way, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has controlled Sumprabum, Injayang, Sadon, Chipwi, Sawlaw, Phimaw, Panwa, Dodphone Yang, Sinbo, Myohla, Manci, Kan Pite Tee, Momauk and Lweje Towns.

The Arakan Army (AA) has controlled Buthidaung, Maungdaw, Rathedaung, Kyauktaw, Ponnagyun, Minbya, Myebon, Ann, Pauktaw, Taung Goat, Manaung, Thandwe, Gwa and Mrauk U in Rakhine State as well as Paletwa in Chin State.

Moreover, the KIA/PDF joint forces have controlled Shwe Pyi Aye, Phaungbyin, Pinlebu, Khampat Towns in Sagaing Region. At present, battles are severely breaking out between armed groups and the Myanmar Tatmadaw across Myanmar.

During these battles, the Myanmar Tatmadaw has lost control of more than 90 townships and several hundred military camps as well as the Northeast Command and the West Command.

The Tatmadaw would continue to wage a just war in cooperation with the local people who wanted peace and stability to prevent terrorist acts and territorial expansion by armed groups, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

CNI News

25 February 2025

If the words that the chairman of the State Administration Council said were analyzed, the chances that elections could be held in 2025 are very slim, general secretary of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD), U Sai Leik told CNI News.

The chairman of the SAC said repeatedly that a general election would be held in 2025. However, peace and stability were needed in the entire country so that a free and fair general election could be held, said the chairman of the SAC in his letter sent to the 77th Anniversary Celebration of the Chin National Day that fell on 20th February 2025.

"There is no reason to hold a general election. If you carefully examine the words of what the SAC Chairman said, first he said that he would hold the election at once kind of. Second, the election could be just held not all over the country but regionally. He said a few days ago that a free and fair general election could be held only when there is peace and stability in the entire country. So, he's not very keen on holding the election. He might consider the situation to be up in the air even after the election. Taking into account revolutionary, economic and social conditions as well as international pressure, it's much less likely to hold the election, I think." said U Sai Leik.

Only when armed conflicts ceased, could a free and fair general election be held; because armed organizations were trying to build their powers regionally, the Myanmar Tatmadaw would have to continue to wage the war, said chairman of the SAC Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing at the graduation ceremony of the Bahtoo Cadet Training Course on 21 February 2025.

While the SAC Chairman was meeting with political parties

As armed conflicts became more widespread and more numerous during the past four years of the current politics, military and political analysts wondered how the SAC would perform in order to make the whole country stable.

It was difficult to predict when the election would be held, as it was not known when although the SAC Chairman had promised international diplomats and the public that the election would be held in 2025, U Khun Sai who is taking part in the peace process, told CNI News.

" Naypyidaw sings a different tune at a time. It said first that the election would be held in 2025. But later, when the meeting of Myanmar's neighboring countries was held in Bangkok on 19 December 2024, the SAC said there that the election would be held during the third quarter in 2025 when Thailand asked, I heard. But I haven't heard in Myanmar when the election will be held. Some people said that the election will be held on 9th November. But later I came to know that the election will be held but you can't know when." said U Khun Sai.

While seeing the SAC Chairman and the Chinese FM Mr. Wang Yi

According to those close to the SAC, the election would be held in October, November and December, 2025 and the power transfer could happen in April, 2026. 

Although the SAC Chairman had said that the election would be held in August 2023, he extended the state of emergency for another six months under the Section.425 of the 2008 Constitution because the armed conflicts were more widespread.

After that, even though he promised again that the election would be held in 2025 without fail, the exact date when the election would be held has not been announced yet.