Not easy to resolve Myanmar issue without third party

CNI News

21 June 2025

It was not easy to resolve the ongoing political crisis in Myanmar without a third party as an intermediary, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), which signed the NCA, Colonel Khun Okkar,  told CNI News.

China, India, ASEAN, the United States, and the European Union have urged Myanmar to resolve the political crisis through dialogues and so have the seven armed groups that have signed the NCA and local democratic elements.

China, India, ASEAN, the United States, and the European Union have urged Myanmar to resolve the political crisis through dialogues and so have the seven armed groups that have signed the NCA and local democratic elements. 

Although the international community is saying that Myanmar's issues must be resolved by the people of Myanmar,  a solution cannot be found if Myanmar citizens alone resolve the issue, and that a solution can only be found if a third party intervenes, Colonel Khun Okkar told CNI News.

While seeing armed group

"On behalf of ASEAN, Malaysia says that the Myanmar issue should be resolved by the Myanmar people themselves. However, when there are confrontations in this situation, it is not easy to meet, discuss, and resolve without a neutral third party. Even in the northern part of Myanmar, China intervened and negotiated a settlement, resulting in some northern groups and the current military council reaching a settlement. Now, I hear that the Malaysian delegate has arrived in Chiang Mai and is meeting with armed groups operating near the Thai border. It is understood that the delegate came with the intention of making the meeting leading to finding a solution. It is not easy to meet, and there is no trust between the two groups. Meeting without trust between two groups will not yield any results. Therefore, a guarantee is needed to have a mutual trust. If ASEAN, or the United Nations was involved as a third party, the talks would be successful." he said.

If efforts were made to achieve the national reconciliation, there must be a compromise to end all armed conflicts, and that Myanmar's political problems must be resolved by the Myanmar citizens themselves, Dr. Aye Maung, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), told CNI News. 

While houses were burning due to armed conflict

"Without political and security stability, development cannot take place. How will we achieve national reconciliation? How will we negotiate and settle all the current armed conflicts? How will neighboring countries support us? Neighboring countries may be more sympathetic to Myanmar than the United States and Australia. The UN can do nothing regarding the Myanmar issue. ASEAN can do nothing either. So the Myanmar people must solve the political problem themselves. ASEAN has said that the currently planned election should be postponed. I think this is contrary to the current political needs,” he said. 

ASEAN and the UN have appointed special envoys on Myanmar to explore ways to overcome the political crisis in Myanmar. 

They have been meeting with opposition groups at home and abroad, as well as with SAC representatives, including the SAC chairman.

However, armed conflicts between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and revolutionary forces are ongoing across Myanmar, forcing more than three million people to flee their homes.

Similarly, the SAC chairman has said that elections will be held in Myanmar in December 2025 and January 2026, and opposition forces have announced that they will completely sabotage the elections that the SAC will hold.

CNI News

20 June 2025

Myanmar is sandwiched between two powerful neighbors, making it impossible to establish a federal democracy by excluding some ethnic groups, Dr. Nyo Nyo Thin, founder of the Yangon Watch, told CNI News.  

Myanmar's two powerful neighbors are China and India.

“If there is no unity among all ethnic groups in Myanmar, it will be difficult for the political situation in Myanmar to improve. Therefore, it is very important to achieve unity among all ethnic groups. Since Myanmar is located between two powerful neighboring countries, it is impossible to establish a federal democracy by marginalizing some ethnic groups. So, as national leaders and political leaders, they should be very patient and work harder on ethnic unity. It is very important,” she said.

The 2008 Constitution states that Myanmar is a country where a variety of ethnic groups live together, and it is made up of a total of 135 ethnic groups, including eight major ethnic groups: Kachin, Kayah, Karen, Chin, Bamar, Mon, Rakhine, and Shan.

While seeing an ethnic group

As a country founded by various ethnic groups, all should be equal, but because of the rulers of the country and the provisions of the 2008 Constitution, the country is leading to divisions and disunity among the ethnic groups, pointed out military and political analysts.

There are also considerations that ethnic groups have been denied the rights they deserve under successive governments, so ethnic groups are taking up arms and fighting to gain their rights.

Furthermore, successive governments have only implemented what they want, and if they continue to do so unilaterally, Myanmar will never be at peace, U Khon Sai, who is involved in the peace process, told CNI News.

“Whether the population is large or small is not the main issue. The main issue is that ethnic minorities live in more than half of Myanmar’s territory. That is important. Since Myanmar gained her independence, the agreements have not been implemented. They said they would establish a federal system, but when they did, they only established a unitary system. Now, they are not establishing a unitary system. They say that if they establish a federal system, the central government will have more power. If they do this unilaterally, our country will never be peaceful,” he said.

While seeing the NCA signing ceremony

The Panglong Agreement was signed on February 12, 1947, and while the Burmese government initially adhered to the provisions of the Panglong Agreement, it later deviated from the basic principles of the Panglong Agreement,  pointed out political observers. 

Currently, there are ongoing clashes between the Myanmar military and ethnic armed groups across Myanmar and  the politics of Myanmar will not change significantly because peace talks are only being held with groups that have signed the NCA, point out military and political observers.

They also believe that only by inviting ethnic armed groups currently waging battles on the ground to participate in peace talks will be a breakthrough in the political process in Myanmar, which has been in turmoil for more than four years.

CNI News

19 June 2025

U Khun Sai, a peace activist, told CNI News that if the role of ethnic minorities in Myanmar's political landscape continued to be dwarfed, the country would become uncontrollable.

They agreed to go for a federal system, but in reality they created a unitary system. Currently, they are working on rebuilding a federal system instead of a unitary system, saying that the central government should have more power. If they continue like this, Myanmar will never be at peace, he said.

If Myanmar keeps only 'our three main national causes' and ignores the Panglong Agreement, politics will become more complicated than it is now, said U Khun Sai, who is involved in the peace process. 

"If we continue to marginalize the role of ethnic minorities, the country will eventually become unmanageable. It will fall under the rule of other countries. If this happens, it's no one's fault. It's all our fault. It's because the wound was treated with the wrong medicine" he said.

The Panglong Agreement was signed on February 12, 1947, and although the Burmese government initially adhered to the provisions of the Panglong Agreement, it later deviated from the basic principles of the Panglong Agreement, pointed out political observers. 

While the Peace Talks-2025 was being held

Although ethnic groups are a minority, they live in more than half of Myanmar's area.

Military and political observers point out that the role of ethnic groups has been important in Myanmar politics since before independence, and has been important not only militarily but also politically in Myanmar politics for more than 4 years now. 

Sai Htay Aung, chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News that if more ethnic minority representatives from ethnic parties could enter the parliament, ethnic issues could be discussed more.

“For example, let’s take the issue of amending the constitution. If representatives from ethnic parties enter parliament and speak about ethnic issues, and if they succeed in parliament, armed groups will also start thinking about whether armed resistance is effective or parliamentary politics is effective. According to  Hluttaw politics, the federal government will relax Article 261, and the state chief minister must be elected by the state Hluttaw and approved by the president. If  they will amend the constitution in Hluttaw, and if they will be able to amend it, I hope that Myanmar's politics will improve considerably. The ethnic groups are fighting for their rights," he said.

While seeing ethnic groups

Currently, there are ongoing clashes between the Myanmar military and ethnic armed groups across Myanmar, but peace talks are only being held with groups that have signed the NCA.

However, military and political observers point out that the peace talks and political dialogues are merely a show , failing to reach agreements that would resolve Myanmar's politics, and that the discussions are unrepresentative due to the lack of participation from the stakeholders that should attend.

Furthermore, ethnic armed groups had been discussing the establishment of a federal and democratically-based union from 2011 to 2020, but after 2021, when the political landscape of Myanmar changes, they are waging battles with the expectation of a confederation or establishment of new countries. Currently, the SAC chairman is preparing to hold elections in December 2025 and January 2026, after more than 4 years.

CNI News

19 June 2025

Even though people local and abroad are saying that solution to Myanmar political crisis must be found through political dialogues, although the Myanmar Tatmadaw represents the SAC, questions have emerged who will discuss with the SAC. 

If the representation was not clear in discussion and negotiation, the situation could be complicated, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

" We have had a policy since we signed the NCA. The agreement only reached from a dialogue that includes all the groups that should take part in can build mutual trust. And it's not easy to include the groups whose ambitions and backgrounds are different in the political dialogue. For example, ethnic groups have waged armed resistance for 70 years. Everyone knows what their attitudes are and what they want. Will the SAC negotiate and discuss with them first? For example, there are seven armed groups in the northern part and seven armed groups in the southern part. There are groups that go against them and at the same time they have allies. As armed groups that are scattered with a variety of names are not under an organization, there may be problems regarding the representation. If the representation is not clear, if who represents which territory is not clear, there may be more complications. Those who are included in the discussion must have a firm representation. On one hand, they must be able to guarantee and they must have the ability to realize what they have agreed. If the groups that have strong representation can take part in the dialogue, it will be convenient. Otherwise, if they don't have a strong representation, their participation in the dialogue won't be convenient." he said.

the ethnic armed groups' conference

ASEAN, the UN, the US, China, India and EU are urging to make a dialogue in order to solve the Myanmar political crisis. However, a discussion cannot be held between the Myanmar Tatmadaw/the SAC and opposition armed forces up to now and the representation has not been clear yet.

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, who served as the rotating chairman of ASEAN in 2022, visited Myanmar in January 2022 and met with SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing to discuss ways to resolve the Myanmar issue, but there were objections. Dr. Aye Maung, chairman of the Arakan National Front (ANF), told CNI News that despite Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen's visit as the rotating chairman of ASEAN to discuss Myanmar, ASEAN was turning a blind eye to the political talks.

the Peace Talk 2025

“SAC,will go its own way. During Cambodia’s tenure as ASEAN’s rotating chairman, Cambodia visited and held talks. ASEAN is turning a blind eye to the political dialogue that will only work through such in-depth meetings. The first time they met, they looked for a 5-point consensus. There must be a lot of pressure from the US on their side. When considering both sides, the SAC will go its own way, and whatever ASEAN says, it will accept or reject. It will open the dialogue and a representative of ASEAN will come to meet. ASEAN can do what ASEAN should do, and if ASEAN cannot do it, it will have to approach to ASEAN+3. It doesn't seem to have done anything about Burmese politics. In other words, it only carried out to become a proxy war through the Burma Act that caused bloodshed.in Myanmar. There was no negotiation. Similarly, the UN can do nothing. It can do nothing in world wars, it is just a voice. The UN only shows its power to affect sovereignty, but it is not really capable of doing anything about the big countries. The influence of other powerful countries is directly involved in the Myanmar issue. Only if this influence can be reduced will ASEAN be able to return to the path it once took," he said.

In Myanmar, on February 1, 2021, the Myanmar Tatmadaw ousted the NLD government, accusing it of attempting to form a government without resolving the 2020 election voter list dispute, and declared a state of emergency and the SAC has been ruling the country. 

While seeing those protesting for democracy

Then, some NLD leaders and parliamentarians, along with pro-democracy forces, armed 
groups, and other political parties, are joining forces to launch an armed revolution to overthrow the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the SAC.

The armed resistance is being carried out jointly by the National Unity Government (NUG), the Committee for the Representation of the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH),
the National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC), PDFs, LPDFs, KIA, AA, MNDAA, TNLA,CNF, KNU, KNPP, KNDF, and other armed groups.

Therefore, if Myanmar's political crisis is to be discussed and resolved, the SAC can represent the Myanmar Tatmadaw, but the question is who can represent the opposition groups that will discuss with the SAC?

CNI News

18 June 2025

Economic analysts and businessmen are discussing how Myanmar should manage the domestic gold, dollar, and fuel prices to prevent them from skyrocketing due to ongoing trade, political, and military conflicts  among countries around the world. 

Currently, there is a war between Iran and Israel in the Middle East, and protests against President Donald Trump are taking place across the United States.

Similarly, tensions between  Thailand and Cambodia over a border dispute, between India and Pakistan over terrorism, and between China and India over territorial disputes are rising. An Iran-Israel war could have a significant impact on global oil and gold prices, but the SAC will only be able to control the dollar market, an economic analyst told CNI News.

"Oil is something that even other big countries can't control. It's difficult to control. But when it comes to dollars, it has a lot to do with policy. It can be controlled with policy. Because dollars are not as essential as oil. Because since the SAC took power, it has been linked to Thai baht instead of the dollar, linked to the Chinese yuan, and linked to India rupee. After the link, they accepted each other's money. And the dollar's share of international trade has also been gradually declining. It used to be around 70% to 80%, but now it's less than 60%. As the dollar's importance decreases, the need to rely on it becomes less and less necessary. Myanmar's main export is natural gas. Since natural gas is also exported to neighboring countries, it is also convenient to accept the currency of neighboring countries. If the SAC controls the dollar, it can control to some extent," he said.

While seeing the war between Israel and Iran

Market experts point out that domestic oil prices will rise depending on global oil prices due to the Iran-Israel war, and that if Iran's oil production decreases, it will depend on which country increases production. 

Currently, the global gold price is on the rise, and the domestic and foreign gold price is around 8 million kyats. However, most gold shops in Yangon and Mandalay are currently closed due to the fact that some gold traders are being investigated by the relevant authorities and that the prices have been set by the Gold Entrepreneurs Association.

While the US dollar is falling in the global market, it is not easy to assess the dollar price in Myanmar due to domestic conditions and inflation, businessman U Aung Pyae Sone told CNI News. 

While seeing gold and dollar

“In the past, the US dollar was used as a global currency. But now, the US itself is facing protests in some of its states. The Trump administration is in a tight spot. In  such an international situation, the price of gold may currently be on the high rather than the US dollar. Since the US dollar is also dependent on the political and economic situation in the United States, if we analyze the dollar and the gold price, the gold price will remain higher. The dollar price is not yet stable. It's not easy to assess the dollar price because it changes depending on various circumstances," he said.

Currently, the price of diesel fuel is 2,410 kyats per liter, the same price as on the 13th June. In addition, this morning, the gold price is at 7,970,000 (over 7.9 million) kyats for pure gold, but the price set by the Gold Entrepreneurs Association is only 5.9 million kyats, and the dollar is also trading between 4,300 and 4,500 kyats per dollar, according to external prices.

CNI News

18 June 2025

he UN and the international community, including ASEAN, do not fully understand Myanmar's politics, Dr. Aye Maung, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), told CNI News. 

Although ASEAN and the United Nations have appointed special envoys on Myanmar to resolve the political crisis in Myanmar, they do not seem to have a thorough understanding of Myanmar politics, pointed out local political parties.

Dr. Aye Maung, chairman of the Arakan National Front (AFP), told CNI News that neighboring countries can understand Myanmar's politics better than ASEAN, the UN, and Western countries. 

“ ASEAN, the UN, some of the major powers and theirdominated countries do not seem to thoroughly understand the politics of Myanmar. Julie Bishop herself does not seem to know it. ASEAN itself doesn't seem to understand it very well. Neighboring countries understand Myanmar politics better. Their interests are intertwined with our own interests. After Myawaddy Battle, Thailand believed that it must be involved in the Myanmar politics. It's related to its interests. Development can't be achieved. In the same way, India and China believe like Thailand. Neighboring countries that are adjacent to Myanmar have already had solutions how to overcome the crisis. But ASEAN don't seem to know it very well. Australia is more far from to know it. There are still the UN envoys on Myanmar. But they all don't seem to know Myanmar politics inside out." he said.

While seeing the SAC Chairman and Lao FM, former ASEAN Special Envoy

Currently, ASEAN has appointed the Malaysian Foreign Minister as the Special Envoy on Myanmar and the UN has appointed Australian Julie Bishop as the Special Envoy on Myanmar to handle the issue. 

National Democratic Force (NDF) Vice Chairman U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News that the outside world does not have a clear understanding of Myanmar's internal affairs and has misunderstood them.

"I accept that the outside world does not know the internal situation of Myanmar.  The Myanmar media abroad has incorrectly shaped the internal affairs of this country. The government itself cannot counter these media regarding what is happening in its own country. Some of the responce from this side are not very effective." he said.

Then, U Htet Aung Kyaw said that rather than making foreign countries understand Myanmar's politics, they were trying to help the local people understand it correctly.

While Mr. Pratsokhorn was meeting with political parties on July 2, 2022

Currently, there are widespread armed conflicts occurring across the country in Myanmar, with more than 3 million people displaced by the fighting. 

Then, after the Committee of Representatives of the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH) enacted a law to take action against those who do not implement CDM, the killings of education and government employees are once again emerging.

Similarly, the Myanmar military has enacted a military service law, resulting in recruitment of soldiers, at the same time there are recruitments of soldiers by armed groups, causing local youth to leave for foreign countries and resulting in a loss of human resources and a shortage of workers in the workplace.

CNI News

18 June 2025

Politicians are discussing how should be in the elections that will be held with two systems in December 2025 and in January 2026. 

The SAC would hold elections under two systems: the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system that was previously used and proportional representation (PR) system, the Election Commission (UEC) told CNI News.

Sai Htay Aung, chairman of the Tai Leng(Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News that the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system has been used, but it has led to several coups. 

He said testing the proportional representation (PR) system in both  Hluttaws to see if it is compatible with Myanmar was hopeful. 

“We have already implemented FPTP. Coups emerged in accordance with the 2008 Constitution. We can say a few examples of what could happen if we implement the PR system. When there are two candidates in a township, it is more convenient to use the PR system. I believe that if the Pyithu Hluttaw is to operate in accordance with the 2008 Constitution, it cannot use PR. Because it could be FPTP, whether it's based on population or township, since it was enacted in 2008. In the Amyotha Hluttaw, there are 12 candidates per region and state, so if the constituency is wide, PR can be used. As for the ethnic MPs, we will go with FPTP. Rather than whether being convenient or not, I hope that things will work out in things that suit Myanmar." he said.

While a person was casting its vote

The Union Election Commission (UEC) told CNI News that elections will be held in 267 townships in Myanmar, and that the elections will be held in phases. 

It is understood that the event will be held in all regions and states, with the exception of areas where security restrictions apply, in accordance with the priority plan.

The UEC said that details will be known after the relevant Hluttaw election laws and regulations are enacted and promulgated.

U Myo Kyaw of the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA) told CNI News that there are many questions about the extent to which the elections to be held by the SAC represent all the people at a time when there is a lot of regional instability across the country. 

While the SAC Chairman was meeting with political parties

"They don't have a strong system. First, they will hold elections in half of the country. Later, they will hold elections in 110 townships. They said that elections will be held in about 80 townships in the next few days. Now, there are reports that elections will be held in more than 200, 260 townships. How can they hold elections? How many territories are really controlled by these power-mad people in our country today? We have to examine them again. There are many villages in a township. I don't mean the places and around where they are stationed. So there are many questions behind these issues about how well their elections represent the people," he said.

The FPTP system is a system in which only the candidate who receives the most votes in a constituency is elected, while the PR system is an electoral system in which seats are distributed proportionally to political parties or independent candidates based on the number of votes they receive. 

Of the 193 UN member states, 74 use the first-past-the-post system, 111 use proportional representation, and 8 use other systems.

CNI News

17 June 2025

A discussion on the Myanmar issue will be held on June 17, 2025, in Chiang Mai, Thailand, under the leadership of Sai Nyunt Lwin, Chairman of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) that includes in the Joint Coordination Body (JCB). 

The  discussion will be hosted by the Salween Institute and will be led  and discussed by Sai Nyunt Lwin and Sai Kyaw Nyunt from the Joint Coordination Body (JCB).

Then, the situation of the upcoming election that will be held by the SAC , JCB's direction and organizational conditions will be discussed.

While seeing the JCB's Nwesaung Agreement

JCB was formed by local politicians and political parties at a meeting at Ngwe Saung on September 28, 2024. The group included Sai Nyunt Lwin of SNLD, former 88 Generation Student Leader U Mya Aye, and U David Hla Myint.

The JCB aims to implement (1) a civilian-led government that separates the military from politics, (2) the guiding principles of a federal democratic constitution, (3) reconciliation and military accountability, and (4) a nine-step process leading to sustainable and peaceful conflict resolution. 

However, the Salween Institute, which is leading the June 17th seminar in Chiang Mai, is an organization that provides public policy research training for Myanmar citizens.

CNI News

17 June 2025

There are differing views and opinions among domestic politicians and foreign countries regarding the upcoming elections in Myanmar, which will be held by the SAC.

The arrest of state leaders and politicians and the SAC’s preparations for elections are leading to instability in the country, said Ms. Julie Bishop, the UN Special Envoy on Myanmar, at an informal discussion of the UN General Assembly on 9 June 2025.

The current state of Myanmar’s politics was due to the alleged vote rigging of the 2020 election and the public was the primary decision-maker, Dr. Aye Maung, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), told CNI News. 

The AFP Party is registered as a political party to contest the elections to be held by the SAC in December 2025 and January 2026. 

While election results were being counted

“Most countries that are generally federal democracies have become dominated by the NLD, and ASEAN seems to be divided into two groups. I think we can roughly say that there are liberal side of ASEAN and the land-adjacent side of Myanmar. The concerns of neighboring countries about Myanmar are important. The UN is also just a pawn. The current crisis in Myanmar's politics is due to the alleged rigging of the 2020 election, according to the SAC, which took power based on the constitution. That's why unrests and divisions emerged and ultimately the public gets hurt. So the public is the one who has to make the main decision," he said.

"There are different ideas on how to overcome the current crisis. For example, when we are suffering from economic, social, and political problems because of war or other disasters, the sanctions and the internal conflicts, we need to focus on the public and ask questions. Do the people want to get out of the current crisis and have a stable and developed country? Will they accept the consequences of the civil war or not? We don't know that either. The people are surrounded by propaganda forces. In any case, I think the people are thinking to get out of the crisis," Dr.Aye Maung told CNI News.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing

Foreign countries and political forces abroad believe that the elections to be held by the SAC are just a political outlet for the SAC. The ASEAN Special Envoy for Myanmar also said that the elections to be held by the SAC are just a political show and that the priority should be to end violence and hold peace talks.

Karen People's Party (KPP) chairperson Daw Nant Khin Aye Oo told CNI News that the upcoming election by the SAC is not an exit for the SAC, but an exit for the people.

The SAC has said that elections will be held in December 2025 and January 2026, that elections will be held in 267 out of 330 townships, and that state power will be transferred to the political party that wins the election.

However, political parties are concerned that the public will not vote in the elections to be held by SAC and will become non-voters. On the other hand, some armed groups and the National Unity Government (NUG) have announced that they will completely disrupt the elections to be held by the SAC.