CNI News

25 November 2025

Questions are increasingly being raised among political observers about why the Myanmar public has lost trust in political parties.

Although there are many ways to resolve the current political crisis, political parties largely believe that the election is the least harmful way forward.

However, because the results of past elections were annulled on the grounds of voter list disputes, the public now has little confidence in the upcoming election and is not interested in it. Likewise, election observers note that the public also has little trust in the political parties who choose to participate in an election that the public does not support.

U Htet Aung Kyaw, a political analyst, told CNI News that a political party can only win public recognition when it truly represents the people and speaks up for their difficulties.

Grassroots communities seen

“It’s quite simple. When you establish a political party, it must represent the people.If it cannot represent the people, how can people like it? Only parties with many people who boldly speak out about public hardships will be recognized by the people as their true representatives—a party that genuinely stands on their side.Now, there are very few people who dare to speak this way.That’s why the public does not trust these parties.”, he said.

The public is struggling daily for food, basic needs, and job opportunities, and as a result, many no longer show interest in elections.

Additionally, the Spring Revolution forces have declared that they will disrupt and prevent the election, and that participants will face consequences. This has made the public stay even further away from the election process.

Daw Sandar Min, an independent candidate from Latha Township, told CNI News that the public has not lost trust but is instead afraid, due to the actions of political actors and activists since 2021.

“It’s not that they don’t trust; people are afraid.There is fear.After 2021, all the incidents that happened, the behaviors and actions of politicians and so-called revolutionaries, caused fear among the public.People have faced terrifying experiences that frightened them deeply.So I believe people are more scared than distrustful.There are good politicians and bad ones in every country.Some do politics with integrity, some exploit it.That’s why politics has gotten a bad name—because of those who exploit it.”, she said.

USDP campaigning

Currently, the public is dealing with a wide range of hardships: high commodity prices, inflation, lack of job opportunities, restrictions on overseas work, unlawful arrests under conscription laws, extortion, weak rule of law that leads to rising crime, and insecure domestic travel.

Additionally, because of ongoing conflicts, people are being displaced, agricultural work has become difficult due to high input prices, students have lost access to education, and healthcare costs have skyrocketed.

Political observers point out that political parties have lost public trust because instead of working to address these hardships, they only appear during the election period, asking for votes.

When the interests of the public clash with the interests of the party, political parties tend to protect their own party interests, leading the public to lose faith in political parties and trust individual candidates instead.

CNI News

25 November 2025

A political analyst told CNI News that if the majority of the public becomes interested in and votes in the upcoming multi-party democratic general election in Myanmar, it could pose a danger to the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP).

“Right now, many people are not very interested in the election. Those who are interested are mostly USDP supporters or military supporters. Only people who support USDP seem to be engaged and ready to vote. Many people are saying that this lack of public interest is actually good for the USDP. Why? Because if people stay uninterested, USDP will likely win. The votes that come in will mainly be theirs. But if the majority of the public becomes interested in the election and turns out in large numbers, that becomes dangerous for them. A high turnout would likely mean more votes against them. This is very different from times when the NLD was participating.”, he said.

 USDP party

The first phase of the election will be held on December 28, 2025, four years after the political changes that occurred in 2021.

Phase (2) will take place on January 11, 2026, and two weeks later Phase (3) will follow, according to Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun, spokesperson for the National Defense and Security Council, who announced this on November 10.

This year’s election will not be conducted solely under the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) system, which was previously used in all elections since independence in 1947. Instead, two systems will be mixed: FPTP and Proportional Representation (PR).

Military and political analysts believe that this election—which will be held after more than four years of political crisis—could mark a turning point toward resolving Myanmar’s political problems.

However, a political analyst told CNI News that the election will not have a significant impact on the ongoing widespread armed conflicts.

Political parties meeting

“I don’t think the election will have much effect on the armed conflicts. The main external influence on these conflicts comes from China. Because of China’s involvement, it could also lead to political disagreements and fragmentation in practical cooperation between the ‘Three Brotherhood Alliance’—TNLA, MNDAA, and AA—was able to seize large territories during Operation 1027 and NUG-PDF forces. But I don’t think the election itself will have a major impact on the armed conflicts.”, he said.

Of the total 5,023 parliamentary candidates in this election, 86 candidates have been disqualified for not meeting legal requirements.

The National League for Democracy (NLD), Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD), and Arakan National Party (ANP)—all of which hold strong public support—are not participating in this election.

As a result, the public shows little interest or enthusiasm in voting, putting USDP in a favorable position.

CNI News

25 November 2025

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, said that he wants voters to consider and cast their votes for those who can protect, preserve, and safeguard the Our Three National Causes.

He made these remarks on November 23, 2025, during a meeting with district- and township-level departmental officials, town elders, and community leaders in Maubin, Ayeyarwady Region.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing stated that preparations are underway to ensure that the upcoming election will be free, fair, and just. He added that candidates are being screened according to the law and emphasized that people should vote for those who can work for the interests of the nation and regions; those who can protect, maintain, and safeguard the Three National Causes; and those who have political, economic, and defense perspectives.

The first phase of the election will be held on December 28, 2025, in 102 townships. The second phase will be held on January 11, 2026, in 100 townships. The third phase will be held in the last week of January 2026.

He stated that arrangements have been made to ensure that eligible voters can cast their ballots, but whether they choose to vote or not is entirely their decision.

According to the 2008 Constitution, every citizen has the duty to protect and safeguard the Three National Causes.

These Three National Causes are:

Non-disintegration of the Union

Non-disintegration of national solidarity

Perpetuation of national sovereignty

Since Myanmar gained independence on January 4, 1948, armed conflicts have continued between the Myanmar military(Tatmadaw) and ethnic armed groups. After February 1, 2021, more intense armed conflicts have erupted, resulting in over three million internally displaced people.

As a result, ethnic unity has deteriorated, and Myanmar is approaching a state of Union disintegration, according to military and political analysts.

CNI Articel

24 November 2025

Myanmar’s election has been announced to take place in three stages: Part (1) on December 28, 2025; Part (2) on January 11, 2026; and Part (3) in the final week of January 2026.

This election is described by some as one that could bring a turning point for the country, while others believe no change will come out of it at all.

In any case, it is important to understand how the public views the election, how they perceive it, what they expect from it, and what their desires are.

When referring to the public, it may be useful to categorize them into three groups:

The group that supports the military and the USDP

The neutral or undecided public

The public that supports the resistance movement

Among these three groups, the first and third are quite straightforward.

USDP campaigning

The first group supports the election and believes that the new government after the election will be led by the military and the USDP.

The third group opposes the election, so they have no interest in the election period or the post-election period.

Therefore, the opinions of the second group—the neutral public—regarding the election period and the post-election period are particularly interesting.

The neutral public does not like the current national situation.

For that reason, even though they do not fully like the election, they do not reject it; they simply watch the situation carefully, hoping that it might bring some kind of change to the current state of the country.

During the election period, the neutral public hopes for political parties that can address the day-to-day hardships faced by ordinary people.

Most of the neutral public does not trust or expect the promises of political parties about restoring democracy, establishing a federal union, achieving peace, or stopping the fighting.

 Political parties meeting

Their reasoning is that these are policies that would take at least ten years to achieve, even under ideal circumstances, and in Myanmar’s current situation, they believe such promises are simply deceptive attempts to win votes.

Therefore, most of the neutral public expects and hopes only for practical election promises—those that can realistically address the social and livelihood hardships currently faced by the public.

Most people are struggling with rising commodity prices, unlawful arrests under the conscription law and demands for payments, shortages of goods, increasing theft and robbery, fewer job opportunities, reduced income, inflation, lack of safety during travel and extortion, weak rule of law, and the government’s poor response to public complaints.

Likewise, they face difficulties such as the inability to easily obtain passports, excessive payments demanded for processing them, restrictions on leaving the country, extortion under various pretexts, barriers to working abroad, lack of full electricity supply, extremely high land and rental prices, and excessively expensive vehicle prices.

 People waiting to cast votes

Therefore, the majority of the public is considering voting only for political parties that promise—and seem capable of—solving these immediate social and livelihood problems.

At present, no political party has been seen campaigning with a credible promise to solve these problems, nor is there a party that has convincingly given such guarantees.

Moreover, the neutral public is also watching the post-election period with great interest, analyzing it carefully. They are considering which party might form the government, what kind of government might emerge, what policies might be adopted, which party in power could bring hope, and which might leave things unchanged.

In any case, given the political crisis, armed conflicts, international economic sanctions, the decline in livelihoods, inflation, weak national security and rule of law, halted trade flows, and social fragmentation in Myanmar, the neutral public hopes for a new government that can genuinely resolve these issues.

Thus, most of the neutral public hopes that the post-election government will be formed as a national unity government based on national reconciliation.

Their belief is that Myanmar’s numerous crises can only be overcome if all citizens unite and work together.

Therefore, it remains to be seen how the expectations of the three public groups will evolve during the election period and the post-election period.

CNI News
22 November 2025

If Myanmar is to move toward a federal system, it must be built only after ensuring fair give-and-take, compromise, and mutual concessions among all sides, said political analyst U Htet Aung Kyaw.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, recently stated that in implementing democracy and federalism, Myanmar would adopt a territory-based federal system, not an ethnicity-based federal system, and that it would fit Myanmar’s own context.

It is believed that the preference for a territory-based federal model is due to concerns that states organized based on ethnicity have historically led to division and dissatisfaction.

Political analyst U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News that if Myanmar is to adopt a federal system, it must be done through thorough negotiations ensuring that all sides agree on the terms.

Participants seen attending a federalism workshop hosted by the Embassy of India.

“Given the current political situation, everyone now believes that a federal system is the only way forward. Even the military agrees that the country must adopt this system. But the question is: What form should it take? Sometimes one side thinks a particular model is good, but the other side cannot accept it — which can make the situation worse. That is why, in moving toward a federal system, it is better not to rush. We need repeated and thorough discussions until we reach a situation where everyone is satisfied. Only then should we implement the system. That is why give-and-take, compromise, and mutual concessions must be carefully worked out before proceeding.”, he said.

Although all sides in Myanmar agree in principle on establishing a federal union, what exact form of federalism will be implemented has not been clearly presented.

The Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) has proposed adopting India’s federal model, while ethnic armed organizations have expressed preference for federal systems practiced in the United States, Canada, Switzerland, and Germany.

Participants seen attending a federalism workshop hosted by the Embassy of India.

USDP spokesperson U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News that federalism is fundamentally related to territorial administration, not ethnicity.

“Federalism is based on territory. When we talk about making laws and administering governance, it naturally corresponds with geographical areas. If it is based on ethnicity, then policies would be shaped according to the mindset of those specific groups — which may or may not be practical. What I want to say is that it is more appropriate to design a federal system based on the specific conditions of each region.”, he said.

The Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), signed by the Myanmar military, the government, parliament (Hluttaw), and ethnic armed groups, states that Myanmar will build a Federal Democratic Union based on outcomes from political dialogue.

However, to this day, no concrete agreement has been reached regarding the exact type of federal system or the details of democratic reforms.

CNI News
22 November 2025

The upcoming election will be a turning point for the nation, according to Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission.

He made the remarks during the 2024 National Lifetime Literary Award, National Literary Award, and Sarpay Beikman Manuscript Award Ceremony held on November 20, 2025.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said: “While the government is striving to ensure political stability and to successfully organize elections in an orderly manner, the public, too, must take part in this election — a turning point for the country — as a national duty. Citizens should maintain unity, patience, and work together toward a better future.”

He stated that the elections would be held phase by phase, and townships unable to participate for various reasons would have elections conducted later when possible. As the election period approaches, maintaining national peace and stability becomes increasingly important, he added.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing further said: “By prioritizing national interests and implementing a genuine, disciplined multi-party democratic system, the collective development of the Union, domestic peace, and the sustained socio-economic advancement of the people can be achieved. Public participation is crucial for the success of general elections under a multi-party democratic system. Our people must cultivate good democratic habits, acquire knowledge, and develop modern awareness through literature and education.”

In Myanmar, Phase 1 of the election will be held on December 28, 2025, in 102 townships. Phase 2 will be conducted on January 11, 2026, in 100 townships, followed by Phase 3 in the last week of January 2026.

Political observers note that in the current electoral landscape, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) faces no strong competitors, giving the party a significant advantage in forming the next government if it wins the election.

Therefore, they argue that if the next government continues with the current structure and policies, major changes in the country are unlikely.

Analysts further point out that to create meaningful change — including resolving the ongoing political crisis, armed conflicts, and international economic sanctions, as well as improving socio-economic conditions — the post-election government must consider forming a Government of National Unity.

CNI News
22 November 2025

For Myanmar’s upcoming elections, instead of allowing only the winning party to form a government, it would be better to assemble a Government of National Unity composed of outstanding individuals from various parties, political analyst U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News.

In Myanmar, the first phase of the election will be held on December 28, 2025 covering 102 townships.

The second phase will be conducted on January 11, 2026, in 100 townships, and the third phase will be held in the last week of January.

U Htet Aung Kyaw said that rather than the winning party forming a government alone, it would be more beneficial if the victorious party created a system resembling a national unity government by bringing together capable individuals from various parties.

“It depends on how well they can mobilize the public to vote. If they can motivate the public and votes come in large numbers, opposition parties also have a chance to win. Depending on that, we can see how far things can improve. One thing is certain — under the current circumstances, the country needs change. Instead of a single winning party forming the government alone, if they gather talented people from each party and form a unity government with a spirit of jointly solving the country’s problems, that would be better.”, he said.

Some political party leaders seen

As Myanmar prepares for the election, analysts point out that the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) currently holds certain advantages based on the political environment and legal framework, and that the new government could potentially be formed under the leadership of the USDP and the Myanmar military.

Therefore, analysts suggest that whichever party wins the election should consider forming a Government of National Unity in order to overcome the country’s political crisis, armed conflicts, and international sanctions.

Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News that more parliamentary candidates who can amplify the people’s voice need to enter parliament(Hluttaw).

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing with political leaders seen

“Compared to now, I think things will greatly improve. Why? Because international election observers have been invited. They will monitor whether the voting process is free and fair. After the election, a government that upholds the people’s voice is possible. When parliament is formed, we will be able to hear the voices of the people. For the past five years, people’s voices have disappeared. When parliament reconvenes, those voices will return. With public support, if we can speak out more in parliament, the country will gradually stabilize. To ensure that the people’s voices are heard, more candidates who truly represent the people must enter parliament. Only then will the true voices of the public be heard. We need to think carefully about who can effectively speak for the people and overcome the challenges.”, he said.

Political analysts advise that citizens should carefully examine the political parties and candidates contesting the election, choosing those who will genuinely work for the benefit of the public and the nation.

CNI News
22 November 2025

Military and political analysts are raising questions about what kind of political approach should be taken between the Government–Tatmadaw and ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) in order to achieve peace in Myanmar.

Myanmar still faces many fundamental needs for social and economic development, peace and ethnic unity are critically important, and that a political approach is essential to achieving peace. This was stated by Lt-Gen Yar Pyae, Chairman of the NSPNC.

Analysts highlight that without addressing the root causes of conflict—political beliefs, historical grievances, ideological disputes—any peace process cannot succeed.

Political analyst Dr. Aung Myo told CNI News that a political approach means improving domestic administration and gaining public support.

“Using a political approach means we sit together at the table, discuss, and make necessary compromises. For example, Kokang has basically been allowed by the government to administer their own area. So they should be satisfied. If they aren’t and continue creating problems, one day they will be suppressed by the Tatmadaw together with the people—this is just the truth. The government needs to improve governance and earn public support. This will happen soon. If a democratic government comes in soon, better conditions will follow.”, he said.

Armed groups, political party leaders, and military leaders seen together

Observers also point out that those involved in peace efforts come with diverse ideas, perspectives, and degrees of commitment.

U Thein Tun Oo, spokesperson of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), told CNI News that the government and EAOs must hold negotiations many times to achieve peace.

“We will continue to meet and negotiate. The State already has ongoing peace processes. In these talks, one side will express what is possible, and the other side will try to compromise where they can. Through repeated rounds of negotiation and compromise, peace will eventually come to us. Once the armed groups achieve peace, they can take part in the national elections organized by the State. Their elected representatives from their own regions will emerge, and through them, they can work for the benefit of the people and the country. So peace will come through continuous negotiation and cooperation.”, he said.

At present, heavy clashes continue between the Tatmadaw and various armed resistance groups, and the peace process remains stalled.

Myanmar’s internal conflict has persisted from January 4, 1948, the day independence was regained, until today.

CNI News

21 November 2025

Analysts of military and political affairs say the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA) is facing several obstacles in its efforts to retake Banmauk, a town in northern Sagaing Region.

Banmauk was attacked on September 15, 2025, by joint forces of the KIA, PDF, and Kadu fighters, and was captured on September 20.

The SNA’s current slowdown in offensive operations to retake Banmauk may be due to shortages of weapons and ammunition, said Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), speaking to CNI News.

He said the expansion of KIA-controlled territory in upper Sagaing Region depends largely on the SNA’s military capability.

Sai Htay Aung said: “From what I know, the SNA is short on weapons in Banmauk. Another issue is that the jammers the KIA-allied forces got from Indaw are extremely effective. The Tatmadaw’s drones cannot get past those jammers, so military activity around Banmauk has basically stalled. Near Banmauk, the SNA has advanced as close as one mile away. They have reached that point, but recapturing the town itself remains difficult.”

KIA-PDF-Kadu joint forces after capturing Banmauk

“Another factor is that many Shanni civilians live in Banmauk. If the SNA launched a full assault, local homes could be burned or destroyed, so they have to act cautiously. That is also why their operations appear paused. Prolonged fighting is never good, but when war breaks out, the best outcome is to end it quickly with minimal civilian harm. Whether KIA expands its territory or not depends on how strongly the SNA can fight. If the Shanni Army can win, KIA’s control will shrink. If not, KIA-held areas will expand.”

The SNA is a Shanni armed organization operating from central to northern Sagaing Region.

Because the SNA considers Banmauk to be part of its home territory, it is expected to launch a counter-offensive once its strength is restored, according to political analyst Sai Main.

Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA)

He said:“Historically, ethnic tensions between Shanni and KIA have always been present. If these issues are not solved with sincerity, they may worsen. The Shanni currently have significant strength in that area. Meanwhile, KIA-led forces, including PDFs and resistance groups, are fighting heavily there. There is no sign the fighting will decrease soon. As long as the SAC and KIA-PDF coalition keep fighting, SNA will also continue clashing with KIA-PDF forces in that region. Fighting goes back and forth—advance, retreat, counterattack. That’s normal. Since Banmauk is regarded as the SNA’s own town, they will certainly attempt to recapture it once they regain strength. But for now, it is difficult to say how far they can go.”

The KIA-led coalition attacked Banmauk on September 15, 2025, at a time when the Myanmar military presence there was weakened, and succeeded in capturing the town on September 20.

As a result of the fighting, Kadu villagers fled from their villages near Banmauk to SNA-controlled areas west of the town.

Banmauk’s population is majority Shanni, followed by Kadu as the second-largest group.

Analysts say KIA’s capture of Banmauk has made it easier for them to send supplies, personnel, and weapons into the upper Sagaing Region.

Currently, the SNA controls the western outskirts of Banmauk and is positioned about one mile from the town, preparing for a possible counterattack to retake it.