CNI News
28 April 2025
The Kachin Independence Army (KIA), according to its military objects, could demand a “two systems” model of governance in one country, like the “Wa” Army, U Khun Sai, who is involved in the peace process, told CNI News.
Currently, other armed groups in Myanmar are demanding and fighting for the same level of self-determination and self-governance enjoyed by the United Wa State Army (UWSA).
The KIA could continue to dominate the entire Kachin State, and could also carry out more than that, said U Khun Sai.
"There is no doubt that the KIA will continue to control the entire Kachin State. It could be more than that. However, I think the main thing is that it will be limited to the currently defined Kachin State. I could be wrong. The KIA, like the “Wa,” can demand a one-country, two-system model. "However, I think they would be more accepting if it were fully federal." he said.
Military and political analysts have assessed the KIA's operation, which began in early March 2024, as of strategic importance.
The KIA lost territories militarily between 2011 and 2015, but did not suffer much political loss during that period. However, there are indications that it lost a lot of political as well as military power between 2015 and 2020.
While seeing the UWSA(Ye Aung Thu)
However, analysts point out that the KIA is gaining both military and political advantage when it could seek to recover politically and gain military advantage after the political change in 2021.
The KIA's military strategy is to dominate territorial security and is known to have the goal of occupying the entire northwestern region of Myanmar, both geographically and politically.
However, it is not easy to capture the entire northwest region. Sai Htay Aung, chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) National Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News that the KIA’s rise to power is partly due to support from Western countries.
"It is not easy for the KIA to take over the entire northwest region. Now give the KIA autonomy in Kachin State. The KIA will be revolutionized by the Shanni people.
The KIA's current rise to power is also due to Western support. Because the KIA can work together with both western countries and China, its power is growing bigger. But the central government must control it. Shanni people in Kachin State don't accept the KIA at all." he said.
The KIA, which was formed in 1961, has three brigades based in northern Shan State and eight in Kachin State.
