CNI News
28 April 2025
Despite the withdrawal of the Kokang Army, the National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) from Lashio due to Chinese intervention in northern Shan State, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) is unlikely to reverse its territorial expansion, military and political analysts told CNI.
The Kachin people previously lived mostly in the Theinni and Kutkai areas of northern Shan State, so he does not think the KIA will retreat from northern Shan State as it seeks to reclaim their original homeland, Sai Htay Aung, chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) National Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News.
"The KIA issue is complicated. Going back to history, the majority of Kachin people lived in Theinni,and Kachin State had only a few Kachin people. After the Kachin State was established, the KIA needs to protect Kachin State. And it has a desire to regain their original homeland. That's why I don't think the KIA will retreat in northern Shan State because the majority of Kachins lived in the Theinni and Kutkai regions since ancient times. There were only a small number of Kachins in Kachin State before Myanmar gained her independence. That is why there may still be problems with the KIA in northern Shan State. But I think KIA, which is politically astute, will try to do its best." he said.
While the KIA troops and the TNLA troops were beating up one another during a territorial dispute in northern Shan State.
The KIA, which was formed in 1961, has three brigades based in northern Shan State and eight in Kachin State. Last March, there were territorial disputes between the KIA and the TNLA, as well as between the KIA and the MNDAA, in some areas of northern Shan State. He believes that if Kachin continues to act as it did during the time of the Theinni Saw Bwa (Shan chief of Theinni in former times), everyone can live together, U Khun Sai, who is involved in the peace process, told CNI News.
"Even before the British left Burma, the Kachin people had requested the Theinni Saw Bwa to establish a Kachin sub-state for them. Their request made sense because when the Theinni Sawbwa revolted against King Mindon and King Thibaw, the Kachin people helped the Sawbwa a lot. The Sawbwa raised Kachin people to the rank of a noble. In addition, the Kachin people also provided military assistance to the British during World War II. For these two reasons, I heard that the Theinni Sawbwa, after consulting with the British government, signed a treaty that would give the Kachin people a sub-state. The Theinni Sawbwa said that Kachin State is unique. However, the Kachin sub-state within Shan State or Theinni is unique. We need to see this differently. According to the Sawbwa's records, the Shan people in Kachin State should also be people of Kachin State, and the Kachin people in Shan State should also be people of Shan State. If we continue like this, we will all be able to live together in peace, I believe." said U Khun Sai.
While the KIA had captured a military camp of the Tatmadaw
Lashio, a city in Shan State that the MNDAA seized on August 3, 2024, was handed back to the Myanmar Tatmadaw due to pressure from China.
Military and political observers have pointed out that once the Lashio handover process is completed, China could indirectly put pressure on the TNLA and KIA, which are expanding their territory in northern Shan State, through the United Wa State Army (UWSA).
Moreover, the military turnaround may be seen after the Lashio handover process, as the Myanmar military rebuilds its military strength and can prevent the KIA and TNLA from expanding their territory, they considered.
The TNLA, MNDAA, and KIA are members of the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC), which is led and formed by the UWSA.
