CNI News

6 March 2025

Discussion has been conducted to hold a conference that reviews the entire 2008 constitution, said chairman of the People's Party (PP) U Ko Ko Gyi. 

The National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) of the State Administration Council (SAC) and the Work Committee of the Political Parties Group discussed the points that will amend the 2008 constitution.

" We discussed to hold a conference that will review the entire 2008 constitution in the Hluttaw that will arise in the future at a suitable time. By discussing the level step by step, more broadly-inclusive discussions may arise, I believe." said U Ko Ko Gyi to CNI News.

While seeing the points discussed between the NSPNC and the Work Group of political parties

The NSPNC and the Work Group of political parties have agreed to amend 43 points from the 2008 constitution and there are seven points left to discuss reportedly. However, armed groups, democracy activists and some political parties have demanded to cancel the 2008 constitution and draft a new constitution.

However, the Myanmar Tatmadaw has maintained the 2008 constitution and accepts only the amendment of the constitution without accepting to abolish the constitution.

As it is still uncertain whether the SAC will be able to hold elections, There is still little hope for the emergence of the Hluttaw and if the Hluttaw emerged, it has not been clear what a suitable time is.

While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and the 2008 Constitution

So, whether a conference that will review the entire 2008 constitution can emerge or not is questionable, pointed out military and political analysts.

The SAC has been ruling the country since 1 February 2021 after announcing the state of emergency. So, political parties are demanding to overcome the Myanmar's political crisis by holding elections and is discussing with the NSPNC to obtain prior agreements.

Although the SAC Chairman has said that elections will be held in 2025 and the State power will be handed over to the winning party, there are also concerns because the SAC has not said the specific date for when elections will be held.

Those close to the SAC said that elections could be held in October, November and December, 2025 and the State power could be handed over in April, 2026.

CNI Interview

5 March 2025

The State Administration Council and political parties are making attempts to hold elections in order to overcome the political crisis in Myanmar that emerged after February 1, 2021. 

Although the SAC said that it would hold elections in 2025, it didn't express the exact date when elections would be held. So, it is anybody's guess whether elections could be held or not.

Some people pointed out that elections could worsen Myanmar's political crisis rather than they could resolve the crisis. CNI News contacted and interviewed U Sai Nyunt Lwin, chairman of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) regarding the above-mentioned situations.

While seeing political parties and the SAC Chairman

CNI News: Some people or organizations want elections to be held. If elections were held, three powers that one person only has maintained must be divided. Others think that the political crisis could get worse if elections were held. Is there a form of election that can resolve all of these issues?

U Sai Nyunt Lwin: Now preparations have been made in 100 or 110 townships. In practice, how many townships could elections be held in? If elections were held, there would be security problems. Security for the election is a concern. 

Some consider that three powers must be divided after elections. Only one person wouldn't be able to maintain three powers anymore. So, the situation could be better than now. On the contrary, others think that elections cannot be held in the entire country. If elections would be held in the territories only controlled by the Tatmadaw, it wouldn't be just, they think. In my opinion, political dialogues are firstly needed. If elections are held in accordance with the consent reached from political dialogues, many problems will have been resolved.

CNI News: What kind of election would be possible if the election were held according to the agreement reached through political discussions?

U Sai Nyunt Lwin:  It could be an all-inclusive election. Now, there are not many opponents, almost none. Now, it seems that only people who support one side are making preparations for the election.

CNI News: Without political discussions first, if elections were held, could the civilian government that would come to power keep the political situation or could it worsen the situation?

While the anniversary celebration of the NCA was being held

U Sai Nyunt Lwin: The problem is that elections can't be held all over the country. If elections can be held in only one-third of the country's area, it cannot cover the entire country. So, iyt could be difficult to recognize the government that would come to power through elections.

CNI News: Well then, the SAC should make preparations to enable multi-parties to run elections.

U Sai Nyunt Lwin: Of course, it has to be like that. The SAC might find it difficult. But it should try hard.

CNI News: According to 2008, there are problems that cannot be solved. EAOs want to discuss only after the 2008 constitution is abolished. But because the SAC has maintained the 2008 constitution, the peace process has not progressed as it should. How should this be fixed?

U Sai Nyunt Lwin: Actually, they have different ideas. We have to iron out the differences. According to the 2008 constitution, the Tatmadaw is allowed to grip many powers, which EAOs don't like. The Tatmadaw wants to maintain the 2008 constitution. We must iron out the differences of opinion.

CNI News: What reforms should both sides make to achieve peace?

U Sai Nyunt Lwin: Both sides need to negotiate and discuss. Even if they can't discuss it directly, I think they should discuss it through a third group, like ASEAN or the United Nations.

CNI News: What's the role of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in the current Myanmar politics.

U Sai Nyunt Lwin: Because Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is in prison at present, her role is nothing. But her supporters want her to be released. They want to do this to get strength. But it's impossible for the SAC to do so.

CNI News: Where do you think the current revolutionary scene in Myanmar is heading?

U Sai Nyunt Lwin: The political situation in Myanmar is now at its worst. Especially the people are facing food shortage problems. If we talk about the people's desire, they want the civil war to be finished quickly. If possible, they want everything to be convenient.

While seeing leaders of the Northern Alliance

CNI News: Myanmar is currently on the verge of collapse. In this situation, how do we manage to prevent the country from being a failed state?

U Sai Nyunt Lwin: Stakeholders need to negotiate. If it's not convenient to do so, ours may be a failed state. The country may disintegrate. In any case, all the stakeholders should re-think about it. Because there are resentment, hatred and desires for revenge, it's a very bad situation.

CNI News: If you had to describe how to make the public understand the state of a failed state, what would it look like?

U Sai Nyunt Lwin: The major powers are gradually taking over many territories, we can say that the country could disintegrate. A member of the public earns 4,800 kyats a day. So, a household gets into trouble a lot. Organizations and parties are different.

CNI News: Territories have arisen among EAOs after a coup d'état in 2021. How severe can these be?

U Sai Nyunt Lwin:  Some EAOs consider that the territories they have captured are their own. These will be problematic a lot. These things may be in northern Shan State, southern Shan State, Kachin State, Sagaing Region, and Rakhine State. 

The Bamar people are mixed with other ethnic groups. If an EAO says that the territories it has captured belong to its people only, the problems are not over and will continue for a long time. We need to look at the entire Myanmar as a whole."

CNI News

5 March 2025

Chairman of the State Administration Council, General Min Aung Hlaing, who is on a goodwill visit to Russia, was welcomed with a guard of honor at the Moscow airport on March 3, 2025 by the Russian Federation. 

The SAC Chairman left Naypyidaw for Russia on the morning of March 3 at the invitation of Russian President Putin.

Upon his arrival in Russia, he was welcomed by the Russian military honor guard. The SAC chairman reportedly will discuss the Russian PM, chairman of the State Duma and members of the Russian government, including Russian President Putin during his trip.

CNI News

5 March 2025

There are opinions among military and political analysts regarding how territorial disputes among EAOs should be resolved to prevent problems from getting worse. 

With the expansion of territorial control by ethnic armed organizations, territorial disputes could arise, pointed out the analysts.

It would be difficult to resolve the problems if EAOs designated the territories they have occupied for their own people, chairman of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) U Sai Nyunt Lwin told CNI News.

" Some EAOs consider that the territories they have captured are their own. These will be problematic a lot. These things may be in northern Shan State, southern Shan State, Kachin State, Sagaing Region, and Rakhine State. The Bamar people are mixed with other ethnic groups. If an EAO says that the territories it has captured belong to its people only, the problems are not over and will continue for a long time. We need to look at the entire Myanmar as a whole." he said.

At present, there are territorial disputes between the KIA and the TNLA, between the KIA and the MNDAA, between the TNLA and the SSPP, between the RCSS and the SSPP, between the PNO and the PNLO in Shan State. In the same way, there are territorial disputes between the NMSP and the KNU, and between the KNU and the KTLA in Tanintharyi Region and in Karen State.

While fighting with punches and kicks between the KIA and the TNLA over a territorial dispute

EAOs have captured as many territories as they can after 2021 and there might not be a majority of their people in the territories they have occupied. It would be necessary to re-negotiate matters regarding territorial domination, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs commentator, told CNI News.

" EAOs and other armed groups including the TNLA and the KIA have occupied as many territories as they can.There might not be a majority of their people in the territories they have captured. I heard they will solve it later. The TNLA has captured more territories than the territories where a majority of their people live. It will be re-negotiate later, I think. If there are two or three ethnic groups in a region, these two or three groups combine and they govern the region like a coalition. According to China's ethnic policy, if the Jinghpaws are the majority in a district, the Jinghpaws will have autonomy." she said.

The State Administration Council has lost control of most townships from Rakhine State, Kachin State, Shan State, Sagaing Region and Magway Region. Moreover, battles are severely breaking out in Ayeyarwady and Bago Regions.

Although the SAC met and discussed with the MNDAA and the TNLA, the discussion with the TNLA was broken.

Civil society organizations, NCA signatories, and those working in the peace process including international community have urged stakeholders to resolve the Myanmar political problem that has been more than four years long with dialogue

CNI News

5 March 2025

Trust must be rebuilt for the peace processes that will be carried out in Myanmar, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S told CNI News. 
Peace could be achieved only after trust had been built and if the stakeholders had a spirit of love for the Union and the people, they could save the country, he said.

" Trust must be rebuilt, I think. Peace can be built on trust. In the current situation, trust is lost. There is no trust between the ruling organization and revolutionary forces. If all the armed forces have a love for the people and a love for the Union, they can save the country. Political dialogues can be held. All the armed organizations should think about it. If the interests of the people are valued, the dialogue will happen." said Col. Khun Okkar.

While seeing Kachin people

All the stakeholders needed to resolve the issue through face-to-face discussions for the long-term stability of peace in Myanmar and the establishment of a federal democratic union, stated the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) on 24th and 25th February 2025.

The SAC had opened the door to peace so that political problems could be resolved, said in the letter sent to the celebration of the Union Day by Sr-Gen Aung Hlaing on 12th February 2025.

He requested local ethnic people to encourage ethnic armed organizations, urged the SAC Chairman. There must be responsibility and accountability in the peace processes and or, it would not be easy to succeed, chairman of the Pa-O National Federal Council (PNFC) Khun Myint Tun told CNI News.

While the anniversary celebration of the NCA was being held

"When there was no responsibility and accountability, the peace process that was carried out through the NCA also collapsed. If the Tatmadaw didn't stage a coup d'etat and took responsibility and accountability, the peace process would be moving at a very good pace, which the Tatmadaw destroyed. So, if we carry out the peace process, the main point is responsibility and accountability. Without responsibility and accountability, the peace process can't easily succeed." said Khun Myint Tun.

Domestic problems must be solved domestically, but international push and mediation were needed as well for the peace process, said military and political analysts.

Members of the ASEAN should accelerate the peace process in Myanmar, reported the Free Malaysia Today (FMT) on 12 February 2025.

China had urged all the stakeholders to hold peace talks after ceasefire in Myanmar and would support the peace processes all out, said Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Miss Mao Ning.

CNI News

3 March 2025

Even though the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement was signed by international witnesses, the people are questioning why it was violated.

The NCA was being violated because any organizations involved did not abide by the agreement; if they abided by, discussions could be conducted on the NCA, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News. 

" The agreement was violated because any organizations don't abide by the agreement. If my memorary serves me right, the government, Hluttaw and the Myanmar Tatmadaw signed the agreement. As our EAOs, chairman, secretary and three military chiefs signed it. The government has collapsed. Hluttaws are no more. There is only the Tatmadaw left. Moreover, some NCA signatories announced that they had withdrawn from the NCA and violated the ceasefire. The agreement has dignity. All the NCA signatories abide by the agreement, the discussion could be convenient through the NCA." said Col. Khun Okkar.

While the NCA signing ceremony was being held

The organizations that signed the NCA on 15 October 2015 are the KNU, the RCSS, the KNU/KNLA-PC, the DKBA, the ALP, the ABSDF, the CNF and the PNLO.

And then, the New Mon State Party (NMSP) and the Lahu Democratic Union (LDU) signed the NCA on 13th February 2018.

The NCA was signed by the UN, China, India, Japan, Thailand and domestic individuals as witnesses and the NCA was approved in the Pyidaungzu Hluttaw.

There were arguments regarding whether the NCA was void or not after 2021. There was no reason to abide by the NCA because the NCA had been void, said secretary general of the KNU Pado Sawta Do Hmu at the press conference on 10th August 2023.

The NCA was a historic agreement which was approved by the Pyidaungzu Hluttaw and it would never be void, said the SAC Chairman Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing on 1st September 2023.

The NCA agreement was violated because of a lack of trust between the two sides, chairperson of the Arakan Liberation Party (ALP) Daw Saw Mya Raza Lin told CNI News.

" Long story short, the NCA was violated because of a lack of trust between the two sides. After the signing of the NCA, there were setbacks when the government and the ethnic armed resistance organizations held talks. Especially, this is relevant to keeping only one Tatmadaw. Both sides were weak to discuss frankly. So the crisis has lasted longer. Moreover, there were issues to be discussed after the 2020 general election. But the political situation changed after 2020. Discussions could not be held. It was the main point" said Daw Saw Mya Raza Lin.

With Myanmar's political landscape that changed after 2021, after saying that the NCA had been void, the KNU, the CNF and the ABSDF have been fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw.

CNI Interview

3 March 2025

Peace talks are being held between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and EAOs in order to end the armed conflicts that are taking place in Myanmar with China's brokered engagement. 

However, EAOs are expanding territories and demanding the territories while the Myanmar Tatmadaw has maintained the 2008 constitution and doesn't accept the demands.

Colonel Khun Okkar, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, was contacted and interviewed by CNI News regarding the above-mentioned situations.

CNI News: The Myanmar Tatmadaw has maintained the 2008 constitution. EAOs are demanding territories, but the Tatmadaw can't give them. So, it is said that peace can't be made. How do you think it should be done?

While the NCA was being signed on 15 October 2015

Col. Khun Okkar: We can made peace only when political agreements are reached through political dialogues. Because preliminary negotiations are being held for peace at present, EAOs are expanding territories and demanding the territories. 

But the SAC can't give the territories under the 2008 constitution. But the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) have gained territories without being consistent with the 2008 constitution. 

Negotiations might be conducted kind of. So, the constitution might be amended or something like that in order to officially give territories under the constitution. in order to be able to do so, the current armed conflicts must be reduced so that political results can be produced.

CNI News: In the ceasefire discussions, there were demands that ceasefires must be conducted and offensives must be stopped at once. But the Tatmadaw doesn't seem to accept them because suspension of offensives is tantamount to giving territories. So, ceasefires are short-lived and battles are still resuming. How do you think they should be negotiated?

While seeing Chinese Special Envoy Mr. Deng Xijun and the SAC Chairman

Col. Khun Okkar: In my opinion, the requirement for troops from both sides to stop where they arrive is not often included in ceasefire agreements, both domestically and internationally. That you say forces from both sides must cease fire at the places where they have arrived is because that you have had the upper hand. 

But both sides have to separately reconsider the deployment of troops after the ceasefire. We have to separately discuss the deployment of troops in the NCA. With the ceasefire alone, you can't take the territory where you have arrived. If you do so, it will be problematic. 

It's necessary to draw a grid line  to surround the territory that can be controlled by a side. A demilitarized zone is also needed. Saying that,the forces from both sides must stop where they have arrived, if you arrived first or if where you have arrived is beyond your region, you make a profit. The other side won't accept it. It's necessary to separately discuss the deployment of troops.

CNI News: The NCA agreement also includes international witnesses. Why is the NCA being violated even in this situation?

Col. Khun Okkar: It's because any NCA signatories don't carry out in accordance with the NCA. From the government, the government, Hluttaw and the Tatmadaw signed the NCA. As EAOs, chairpersons, secretaries and commanders in chief signed the NCA. 

The reason why the NCA was violated - the government has collapsed. Hluttaw is no more. The Myanmar Tatmadaw alone is left. Some NCA signatories announced that they resigned from the NCA and they violated the ceasefire. 

While the 8th Anniversary Celebration of the NCA was being held

The NCA's intentions are very good.  Although some NCA signatories said that they have maintained the NCA's intensions, they don't comply with the NCA. The agreement is prestigious. Hluttaw has approved it. If all NCA signatories abide by the agreement, discussions could be convenient.

CNI News: As the NCA on which international witnesses signed was easily violated, can the agreement between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and an EAO be easily violated? If this happens, what will happen to peace in Myanmar?

Col. Khun Okkar: it can be easily violated. Later, China intervened in the ceasefires. China was included as a witness. We'll see how much China can save the situation.

The NCA has six witnesses and they are the UN, the EU, China, Japan, India and Thailand. 

But if an NCA signatory violated the agreement, how it will be taken action against is not included in the agreement. So, the witnesses are not responsible to interfere and warn. We requested to empower witnesses to interfere and warn if problems arose. 

The dialogue groups under the Thein Sein government did not accept it at that time. So, some NCA signatories violated the agreement, we don't know who to complain. If there is strong evidence that an NCA signatory violates the agreement, how will it be taken action against? We need a strong third force. For example, in the previous Kunming discussions, if China collected data, agreements could be a little stronger.

CNI News

3 March 2025

If a single party system replaced the multi-party system to solve Myanmar political problems in holding elections, it would be impossible in the current period of fragmentation, chairman of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) U Sai Nyunt Lwin told CNI News.

A one-party system is a system in which a country is ruled by a single party. As practiced in a democracy, all the structures and functions such as the parliament and the Supreme Court are fully included, but the real power lies with the party that is ruling the country.

"We are the people who have tried to make it a multi-party democracy. According to the current situation, it's impossible at all to practise the one-party system at a time of fragmentation like this." said U Sai Nyunt Lwin.

While seeing political parties and the SAC Chairman

Myanmar had experienced a single party system because U Ne Win's Burma Socialist Programme Party only ruled the country starting from 1974.

Because the people had to live under the strict rules of the one-party system, they demanded the multi-party system. 

They had enjoyed the essence of democracy for a short time only. Everyone had agreed to use the federal democratic system, chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP) U Sai Htay Aung told CNI News. So, he wanted politicians to adapt to the will of the people, he said.

While seeing the UWSA

" The people had lived under the strict rules of the one-party system. The country's development was very lagging behind. The people had enjoyed the taste of democracy from 2010 to 2020. I want politicians to adapt to the will of the people. Now, everyone has agreed to use the democratic federalism from democracy." said U Sai Htay Aung.

Democracy is a system in which the people elect their own representatives to govern them. Federalkism is a system of government in which states unite and give up some of their powers to a central authority. 

The Myanmar Tatmadaw had accepted and agreed to use the multi-party system and would implement it and its political goal was to build a union based on democracy and federalism, said the SAC chairman on 27th January 2023.

At present in Myanmar, battles are severely breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and armed organizations and armed groups have captured a lot of territories where they are building administration. So, people are worried that warlords will emerge.

CNI News
2 March 2025

The Chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC) Senior General Min Aung Hlaing would go to Russia and meet with Russian President Putin, reported the SAC on 28 February 2025. 

The SAC Chairman will pay an official state-level goodwill visit to Russia in a few days to come at the invitation of President Putin. 

During the trip to Russia, the SAC Chairman will meet and discuss with Russian President Putin, Russian PM, chairman of State Duma and Russian government officials During the trip, Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing will discuss matters relating to further strengthening friendship, economic, security and strategic cooperation in all areas, reported the SAC. 

The SAC has good relations with Russia, and Russian diplomats often visit Myanmar.

An agreement that was granted to Russia to develop the Dawei deep-sea port project  was signed by the SAC and Russia a few days ago. 

Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing attended the Far East Economic Forum that was held in Russia in September 2022.