CNI News

15 May 2025

If China is able to negotiate with the SAC and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), it could continue to negotiate with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) rather than the Arakan Army (AA), Pa-O National Liberation Army (PNLO-NCA/S) chairman Colonel Khun Ukka told CNI News. 

Because Rakhine State is far from the Chinese border, it might not be on China's priority list for negotiations, he said, adding that the KIA and China share a border and have other issues, so negotiations with the KIA can take place after negotiating with the TNLA.

"It was reported that a 7 point agreement has been reached in relation to returning Lashio to the SAC by the MNDAA. According to the agreement, the MNDAA has returned to its place. But in the case of the TNLA, Chinese pressure is political and diplomatic. In reality, it is fear pressure. Peer pressure. I heard that the “Wa” has taken responsibility for facilitating the TNLA issue. Therefore, I believe that the “Wa” will negotiate with the TNLA and ensure that any side doesn't suffer. However, since the ULA/AA is far from the Chinese border, it might not be on China's priority list to negotiate. We heard that China wants to negotiate with the KIA before negotiating with the AA because the KIA shares a border with China. There are border trades as well. And China has other issues with the KIA." said Col. Khun Okkar.

Leader of the KIA General N'Ban La

Due to Chinese pressure and mediation, the Kokang Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) was forced to hand over the captured Lashio city and the Northeast Command to the Myanmar Tatmadaw on April 21, 2025. 

However, the MNDAA has been allowed to control over an area beyond the Kokang Self-Administered Zone, which is defined in Article 56(e) of the 2008 Constitution by combining Kon Kyan Township and Laukkai Township in Shan State. China then created the conditions for talks between the TNLA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw, once on February 15-16, 2025, and once on April 28-29.

During those talks, the Myanmar military demanded that TNLA troops withdraw from Mogok, Naung Cho, Kyaukme, Thibaw, and Namkham into the Palaung Self-Administered Zone, but no agreement was reached, and they agreed to meet again in August. 

China, which is a one-party state, is slow to act on any issue, and may be able to negotiate with other groups in the border region, China-Myanmar affairs analyst Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw told CNI News.

" China will negotiate with one organization after another. China is very patient in this kind of matter. Now, it seems like China negotiated with the MNDAA. The MNDAA had to retreat from Lashio, but it has gained many towns and cities and some of them are bigger than Laukkai. the MNDAA must develop them itself. After considering that, the TNLA also may make some concessions. China will negotiate with other organizations on the border  after doing with the TNLA, I think. The Chinese Communist Party is different from other parties in other countries. When one party holds power, it can set long-term policies. It can set long-term principles. So, it will do it gradually. It will negotiate with one after another.”she said.

The SAC Chairman and Chinese President Xi Jinping

Chinese President Xi Jinping said he would continue to support Myanmar's peace efforts during a meeting with the SAC Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in Moscow, Russia, on May 9, 2025. 

Fierce battles are ongoing across Myanmar between ethnic armed organizations (EAOs)/the People's Defense Forces (PDF), and the Myanmar Tatmadaw. In the midst of these clashes, the AA-TNLA-MNDAA launched Operation 1027 in northern Shan State on October 27, 2023. 

During that operation, the AA-TNLA-MNDAA captured almost the entire northern region of Shan State and the Northeast Command.

On the other hand, the KIA, in collaboration with the PDF, is waging battles for control of towns in Kachin State and Sagaing Region. Similarly, the AA controls 14 out of 17 townships in Rakhine State, including Paletwa town, in Chin State, and in collaboration with local armed groups is also fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw in Ayeyarwady, Magway, and Sagaing regions. Therefore, China is trying to mediate and facilitate peace talks between the KIA-AA-TNLA-MNDAA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw.