CNI News

9 May 2025

If talks between the SAC and the Arakan Army (AA) take place, the AA may make higher demands than the “Wa” and Kokang, Colonel Khun Okkar, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), which signed the NCA, told CNI News.

The AA could mainly demand that the Rakhine State would be governed by the Rakhine State government, he said.

"If there is a dialogue, I think AA can demand more than what the “Wa” and the Kokang ask for because it has already had Rakhine State. It can demand more power and authority because it has seized control of most of the territories in Rakhine State. When it comes to the distribution of natural resources in Rakhine, Rakhine State should take 70 percent and the central government should take 30 percent for example. The AA has reached a point where it can discuss these issues. If the talks agree on both political and financial terms, the AA can cease fire if it wants to. But it doesn't look like he will give up the Rakhine region he has gained. Rakhine has already attained state status, which is higher than the autonomous region. It's a state that can form its own government. The Rakhine State government will govern Rakhine State. But it will share with the Union in some places. But the main thing is that Rakhine State will be governed by the Rakhine State government. One country, two systems.” said Col. Khun Okkar.

While seeing the UWSA

The United Wa State Army (UWSA) governs the areas designated as “Wa” Self-Administered Division under the 2008 constitution, which include six townships in Shan State: Hopan, Mong Maw, Pang Wai, Nar Phan, Matman, and Pang Kham (Pang Sang).

Similarly, the Kokang Force, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) has been administering the Kokang Autonomous Region, which includes Laukkai and Kon Kyan in Shan State, after the city of Lashio was handed back to the Tatmadaw through Chinese mediation.

It would not be easy for the AA to achieve a position like the “Wa” without a negotiation process, Dr. Aye Maung, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), told CNI News.

A crossroads in Rakhine State

"It's much less likely that Rakhine will become what the armed groups hope for. It's not easy (for the AA) to achieve a "Wa" status without a negotiation. The AA is not the same as the Wa. The Wa had been trying to rule its region since 1989. So, they negotiated with Sr-Gen Than Shwe. The Wa region had been a special region before the 2008 Constitution. After the constitution, self-administered division and special regions were enacted. The Wa and Rakhine are different. Rakhine is a state according to the constitution. Before that, there were no negotiations between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and Rakhine armed groups. Can Rakhine become like “Wa” or not?" When the current government considers the constitution, it is difficult for Rakhine to become like the Wa region." he said.

Currently, in collaboration with other armed groups, the AA is fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw in Ayeyarwady Region, Magway Region, Bago Region, Sagaing Region, Rakhine State, and Chin State.

The AA has stated that it wants to achieve confederation status like the “Wa” at the minimum level and that it has the ambition of establishing an independent territory at the maximum level.

Currently, the AA controls the townships of Thandwe, Gwa, Ann, Minbya, Mrauk-U, Maungdaw, Rathedaung, Buthidaung, Kyauktaw, Punnakyun, Manaung, Pauktaw, Taung Goat, and Myebon in Rakhine State.