CNI News
24 May 2025
Military and political analysts are speculating on what the consequences of the resumption of fighting in Karen State and Tanintharyi Region by the Karen National Union (KNU) could be.
In May 2025, joint forces led by the KNU's KNLA and KNDO captured three military bases in Hlaing Bwe Township, Hpa-an District, Karen State, along the Thai-Burma border: Maw Kwi Lu, Tarle, and Lay Pana Di (aka Ta Khor Bekwi).
In addition, the 4th Brigade of the KNU also captured the Htee Hta and Htee Khee strategic camps in the Htee Khee area of Dawei, Tanintharyi Region. After the political change in 2021, the KNU had differences of opinion between those who wanted a political solution and those who wanted a military solution.
Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar analyst, told CNI News that the KNU may have launched operations to recapture military bases because the group that wanted a military solution had won, and that it may also want to gain an advantage in political negotiations.
Comrades fighting alongside the KNU
“An armed group will occupy areas. They will stabilize those areas. Moreover, the people in those areas will support that group, if so, it will be more convenient for the armed group to negotiate. They will continue to do this. Because China and Thailand are taking the same steps, if battles are more severe, Thailand can intervene and negotiate a ceasefire. I think they will continue to fight within their own country rather than at the border. In any organization, there are conflicts within the organization. There are internal conflicts. For example, should they continue the war or make peace? To prevent the organization from falling apart, they must first negotiate among themselves. I think the group that will fight outright will win. That's why they are waging camp-taking battles." she said.
KNU spokesperson Pado Saw Tawnee said that the KNU is currently preparing to lead and operate the Htee Khee border trade gate and is also preparing to lead and operate the Myawaddy border trade gate.
The KNU also has Brigades 2 and 3 in Bago Region, while Brigade 1 is in Thaton District. The KNU captured the villages of Naung Gon, Yan Myo Aung, Ywa Gyi Inn, Kyun Gon (Nokalaw), and Taung Su in Mu Township in the last week of April.
The KNU leaders
In addition, the Myanmar Tatmadaw’s 598 Light Infantry Battalion, located in Nyaung Chedauk village, Shwe Kyin Township, on the border of Bago and Mon State, was captured by joint forces of the PDF and KNU.
The KNU's current operations and camp occupations are similar to Operation 1027, according to some analyses.
The KNU is the oldest ethnic armed group and political organization, and is made up of seven brigades. It is difficult to predict whether an operation like 1027 will be possible, as each brigade has different activities, U Myo Kyaw of the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA) told CNI News.
"The KNU is a really experienced revolutionary army. They are very skilled and understand politics and military affairs. They also have their own policies and they are going their own way. As for the KNU, even among its 7 brigades, each brigade has different powers and strategies. Some brigades wage battles to capture cities and territories. Others are also trying to weaken the enemy's strength. That's why it's hard to guess whether their operations are like Operation 1027." he said.
The KNU had to relinquish Kawkareik, which it had captured since late 2023, and Myawaddy, which it had captured in April 2024. Local news reports also indicate that the KNU has captured at least seven military bases in the 7th Brigade area over a three-month period from March to May.
