CNI News
20 August 2025
As Myanmar’s election is scheduled to be held later this year, everyone is closely watching what kind of government might emerge after the vote.
The Union Election Commission (UEC) has announced that the election will take place in December 2025 and January 2026.
According to Col. Khun Okkar, Chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), a party that wins around 30% or 40% of the votes has the possibility to form the government. Otherwise, only a coalition government will be possible.
“Since the military already holds 25% of the seats in every legislature and government body under the 2008 Constitution—state Hluttaws, state governments, the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw, and the Union government—any winning party needs to secure at least more than 25%, ideally 30–40%, to have a chance of forming a government. If not, then only a coalition government will be possible, depending on the percentage of seats each party wins. Parties will have to be represented in government and Hluttaw accordingly. That’s why, after the election, it could turn into a coalition-style government. And if no one wins more than half, then three or four parties might have to join together to form the government.” he said.
Political parties meeting with one another
U Htet Aung Kyaw, Vice Chairman of the National Democratic Force (NDF), also told CNI News that if no party can secure 25%, then it is possible for the military to lead the formation of the government:
“We still don’t know which parties will actually contest and how much support they will get. Because of that, candidates will compete for the Hluttaw seats, and only after nominations are filed will it be easier to estimate which parties might have the advantage. But what’s certain is that the military already has 25% guaranteed. That also means the vice president position is secured, along with three ministerial positions. If no party wins a clear majority and seat distribution is fairly close, then it could go two ways—either the parties will negotiate among themselves, or they will negotiate with the military. Since we still don’t know how many seats each party will win, it’s too early to say what form the government will take. For example, if one party only wins about 10%, another wins 20%, and another wins 15%, then the military could take the lead in forming the government.”he Said.
In the upcoming election, major popular parties such as the National League for Democracy (NLD), the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD), and the Arakan National Party (ANP) will not be participating.
Political parties seen
Political analyst Dr. Myo Set Hswe told CNI News that the next government is essentially already pre-arranged:
“In my view, the next government is already predetermined. I think it’s already formed in principle. It should be what they call a ‘stakeholder government,’ with representatives from different groups who are deemed eligible to participate. But the leadership and leadership structure have already been decided in advance. They already have a plan and have even chosen who the president will be.” he said.
Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the National Defense and Security Council, has stated that power will be handed over to whichever political party wins the election.
However, both domestic and international diplomats point out that the upcoming election will be merely symbolic, and that regardless of the results, the outcome will only produce a military-led government.
U Ko Ko Gyi, Chairman of the People’s Party (PP), also stated that the election results will not be allowed to go against the military.
