CNI News

24 September 2025

Political analysts pointed out that, for the upcoming election in Myanmar, the government should practically demonstrate arrangements for voter security so that people can actually go out and vote.

The Union Election Commission (UEC) has announced that the first phase of the election will be held in 102 townships on December 28, 2025, and the remaining townships will hold elections in phases two and three in January 2026.

Even in areas said to be under the rule of law, authorities have not been able to effectively maintain order. Therefore, during the election period, the government needs to show the public tangible security arrangements for voters, said Dr. Nyo Nyo Thin, Chairperson of Yangon Watch Group, speaking to CNI News.

“Right now, in our country, the rule of law is in such a poor state that even in places claimed to be under the rule of law, the police cannot properly maintain order. In such times, the public is already worried about their safety even in normal circumstances. So when it comes time to vote, they’ll be even more concerned about security. The government says they’ve prepared many security measures, but they need to prove this in practice to the public. If they cannot guarantee the safety of the people who they want to come out and vote, then citizens cannot be blamed for not coming to vote. It’s simply because of their own security concerns. If they want people not to worry about security, they must strengthen the rule of law. Even under normal circumstances, law enforcement has been extremely weak. Misuse of the conscription law and other actions outside the rule of law have worsened things. If political parties stand firmly together with the people and work openly for them, then there’s no reason why people wouldn’t come out to vote.”, she said.

Revolutionary forces, however, have announced that they will strongly oppose the election to be held by the military, urging people not to vote or participate, and warning of effective action against those who cooperate.

While People were preparing to vote

As a result, the public faces difficulties in casting their ballots on December 28 due to security concerns. Similarly, some people are not willing to vote although they are included on the voter list, but they are worried because local administrators—who already have access to their household registration records—might cause problems for them if they don’t.

U Htet Aung Kyaw, former co-chairman of the National Democratic Force Party (NDF), told CNI News that authorities must prove there is peace and security so people can feel safe to vote.

“People should vote. In world history and Myanmar’s history, abstaining from voting never carried any real meaning. We’ve heard that police forces responsible for rule of law say they will enforce things strictly and firmly. However, since conflicts are ongoing and rule of law is weak in some areas, there are worries. The government needs to show that it is truly secure and peaceful. Only when people feel with certainty that they are safe and nothing will happen to them, can we say it is really secure.”, he said.

Revolutionary groups, however, have declared that they will sabotage the election to be held on December 28, 2025 at all costs and have warned that those participating in the election will not be guaranteed safety.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, meanwhile, enacted the “Law for Protection Against Obstruction, Disruption, and Destruction of Multiparty Democratic General Elections” on July 29, 2025.

According to this law, violators can be sentenced to a minimum of 10 years in prison, up to life imprisonment, or even the death penalty.

CNI News

23 September 2025

Local residents say they are facing security concerns after Banmauk town in northern Sagaing Region fell under the control of a coalition force led by the Kachin Independence Army (KIA).

The offensive to seize Banmauk was launched on September 15, 2025, by the KIA together with the Kadu armed group and People’s Defense Forces (PDFs). By September 20, they managed to capture the town.

Sai Lin, a Banmauk resident, said: “Now Banmauk is controlled by the KIA, the Kadu armed group, and other PDFs. The Shan Nationalities Army (SNA) and the military have both retreated. But the locals are not happy—they are worried. That’s because the military is carrying out airstrikes and bombings. The longer the KIA stays, the more the town will be destroyed. People don’t trust the situation; arrests and killings could also happen. So, residents see this not as the liberation of the town but as its destruction. Their security is at risk.”

Until recently, security and stability in Banmauk had been primarily handled by the Brigade 614 of the SNA, while the Myanmar military’s 77th Division was stationed inside the town.

Following the takeover by the KIA, PDFs, and the Kadu group, the military launched airstrikes on September 21. With the Tatmadaw attacking by air and preparing counter offensives on the ground, the town has been facing destruction—validating residents’ fears, according to a military analyst monitoring the Sagaing conflict.

“The concerns of Bamauk residents are not baseless. We can see what happened in towns previously seized by the KIA-PDF alliance in Sagaing. Htigyaing was destroyed, Kawlin was destroyed—both towns fell back under military control, but by then they were already ruined and residents had lost homes and property. The same can be seen in Pinlebu. The resistance forces need to reassess this kind of town-capture strategy.”, he said.

Currently, SNA forces are holding the western part of Banmauk and preparing for renewed fighting, aiming to regain the town. The Myanmar military is also preparing further ground and air operations. Locals fear that if this continues, Banmauk will be devastated and they will be displaced as war refugees.

A local businessman commented: “Previously, when the SNA was responsible for security and the military was just stationed inside the town, there was no major conflict between the two. The town was stable, residents lived peacefully, businesses could operate, and people moved about freely. Now that resistance forces have taken the town, counterattacks are inevitable. That’s why locals are worried the town will be destroyed.”

Banmauk is a key entry point into Kachin State. Analysts suggest the KIA seized the town to cut off or block Myanmar military offensives into Kachin territory. They also warn that the KIA may soon expand operations to Hpakant and Kathar towns.

However, whether the KIA can hold onto Banmauk for long remains uncertain. Some observers believe the KIA’s attacks on Shanni areas aim to weaken SNA’s strength and influence.

While continuing town-capture offensives in Kachin State and Sagaing Region, the KIA is also simultaneously offering peace talks and negotiations with the Myanmar military.

CNI News

23 September 2025

Analysts are commenting on what kind of system the military is trying to implement — and what unusual developments may arise — as the Tatmadaw sends representatives to the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) to compete in the elections.

ieutena This month, Commander-in-Chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing dispatched retired generals, Lieutenant Generals, senior commanders, and even former civilian ministers to the USDP to contest the upcoming elections.

Colonel Khun Okkar, Chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO), which signed the NCA, told CNI News that the influx of military figures into USDP looks more like an order-driven transfer than free choice:

“I don’t think they joined the USDP of their own free will. They are ordered by the military — once retired, they are assigned duties in the party. If the USDP wins the election, the new parliament and government will also be filled with military men. This looks like prearranged planning. It’s an order-based transfer into the party. In the past, Senior General Than Shwe and Vice Senior General Maung Aye quietly retired, giving parliament to General Shwe Mann and the presidency to General Thein Sein. It was a clever division of roles, which enabled them to rule for five years. This time, however, it seems different. The top commanders don’t appear willing to retire. They themselves may want to take positions where possible. So we can’t predict what kind of system they’ll shape, but it does look worrying.”

USDP party members

Senior General Than Shwe drafted the 2008 Constitution in a way that guaranteed continuous military participation in politics. He retired senior generals and sent them to the USDP to contest the 2010 general elections.

Subsequently, retired General Thein Sein led the USDP to form a government, while Min Aung Hlaing was promoted to Commander-in-Chief, and Than Shwe and Maung Aye stepped down.

According to Dr. Nyo Nyo Thin, Chairperson of the Yangon Watch Group, the Tatmadaw prefers USDP candidates because they believe military men obey orders more than civilians:

“When you study the Tatmadaw, you find they have less trust in civilians. They believe their own officers have stronger discipline, better obedience, and are more capable. So they trust representatives emerging from the USDP more in terms of loyalty. I think they are preparing to control parliament systematically. Traditionally, when military officers retire, they go to USDP. The military and USDP are essentially one and the same — and the public widely believes this. Looking at the USDP's foundation, it was created by generals. The Tatmadaw has no sign of relying on any other civilian-led party. So naturally, they stick with the USDP.”

Government ministers

U Than Shwe originally founded the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA) in 1993 as a social organization. But by 2010, ahead of the elections, he converted it into the USDP, retired generals into it, and had them contest the polls.

In the 2015 elections too, the Tatmadaw dispatched retired generals to the USDP. Reports now indicate that Senior General Min Aung Hlaing is preparing a similar move for the 2025 general election.

According to sources, senior figures recently sent to the USDP include retired generals such as Aung Lin Dwe, Tin Aung San, Myat Tun Oo, Lt-Gen Kan Myint Than, Lt-Gen Phone Myat, Lt. Gen. Thet Pon, Lt. Gen. Teza Kyaw, Lt. Gen. Lin Aung, Lt. Gen. Soe Tint Naing, and Maj-Gen Zaw Naing Oo, along with some former government ministers.

Myanmar’s 2025 elections are scheduled to begin in 102 townships on December 28, 2025 (Phase 1), with the remaining constituencies to follow in January 2026.

CNI News

22 September 2025

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) may be losing in its campaign to capture Bhamo, Kachin State, and military and political analysts say the Myanmar Tatmadaw must avoid nurturing rebel groups.

In Bhamo, where KIA and allied People’s Defense Force (PDF) troops had been attempting to seize control, the Myanmar Tatmadaw regained the upper hand and retook some positions.

Regarding the battle, U Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) National Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News:

“In the Bhamo battle, the KIA will gradually lose. The Tatmadaw also needs to avoid nurturing rebels. If they aim to eliminate them, only complete eradication will ensure national peace and development. When rebels become weak, they offer peace talks. The government often follows along. But when they regain strength, they fight again, causing suffering to the people. Only when war no longer occurs can the country truly pursue development. Starting from Bhamo, the government should work to end the KIA.”

As the KIA began retreating from Bhamo, they extended peace talk offers to the military, and both sides are currently negotiating possible discussions.

KIA, together with the Arakan Army (AA) and PDF, launched their offensive to capture Bhamo in December 2024, seizing Bhamo Airport, Bhamo University, and several Tatmadaw bases.

KIA–PDF joint forces

From December 2024 to July 2025, the Tatmadaw defended for eight months. Then, starting August 4, 2025, the Tatmadaw launched a counter-offensive with seven battalion columns.

Between August 4 and September 11, 2025, the military announced that it had recaptured KIA-AA-PDF–controlled headquarters, neighborhoods, villages, and supply bases around Bhamo.

Bhamo is a strategically important city to the border trade on the eastern bank of the Irrawaddy River. The trade routes include:

Bhamo–Tazai–Myothit–Laiza, Bhamo–Momauk–Tazai–Laiza, Bhamo–Momauk–Lweje.

These were the key routes that KIA-AA-PDF sought to control.

While showing the Myanmar Tatmadaw launched a counter-offensive inside Bhamo

Although many people believe the Tatmadaw intentionally allows rebels to exist, political analyst Dr. Aung Myo told CNI News that in reality, the military does not “nurture” them.

“People think the Tatmadaw nurtures rebels, but in reality, they don’t — and they can’t. Even the U.S. didn’t nurture the Taliban. The fact is, in such vast territory, groups can hide, blend in with the population, and wage guerrilla warfare. So it’s not the military nurturing them. However, to completely eliminate guerrilla warfare, political inclusion is necessary. That’s why elections are held, provisions for proportional representation and self-administration are made, and the constitution is amended. Over time, these can gradually bring such groups into politics and weaken them.”, he said.

From December 4, 2024, to September 11, 2025, there were 16 major battles and 490 smaller clashes between the KIA-AA-PDF and the Tatmadaw.

The Tatmadaw claimed to have recovered 163 rebel bodies, 178 assorted weapons, and related equipment, though some government troops also lost their lives.

Currently, since September 15, 2025, the KIA and PDFs have been launching a new offensive to seize Banmauk, a key gateway town into Kachin State from the upper Sagaing Region.

CNI News

22 September 2025

In Myanmar’s upcoming election, observers from both political and military circles are closely watching the voting rights of citizens and the conditions for submitting candidates in areas affected by armed conflict.

According to the Union Election Commission (UEC), the first part of the election will be held on December 28, 2025, in 102 townships. The remaining townships will hold elections in parts 2 and 3 in January 2026.

On September 14, 2025, the UEC also announced that elections would not take place in 121 constituencies across the Pyithu Hluttaw, Amyotha Hluttaw, and Region/State Hluttaws.

Although the UEC had originally declared elections would be held in 267 townships, the updated number is even higher, which the UEC claims poses no issue. However, in territories controlled by other armed groups, it will likely be difficult to field candidates, said U Htet Aung Kyaw, vice chairman of the National Democratic Force (NDF).

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing casting his vote

He told CNI News:“As it stands, the UEC has even announced elections in more townships than originally planned, so there shouldn’t be much of a problem. But in conflict areas, it will be very difficult to nominate candidates. For example, if only one party manages to nominate a candidate and others don’t, then there won’t even be a need to hold an election in that constituency — that one candidate would automatically win.”

On September 15, 2025, the UEC also issued a statement regarding the right of voters who are outside their constituencies but are listed on the electoral roll, confirming that they would be allowed to cast advance votes.

Colonel Khun Okkar, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO), which has signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), told CNI News that competition would still exist in constituencies, but weaker parties would struggle:

Citizens waiting in line to vote

“Every citizen should have the right to vote. So even if someone is staying elsewhere, they should be able to cast an advance vote in their original constituency. Right now, there are hundreds of thousands of displaced Rakhine people in Yangon. They can still vote for their constituencies from afar. Even though many constituencies are unstable, arrangements have been made so people can still vote. But if in a certain constituency only one person runs, then that candidate is automatically elected. Still, I expect there will be competitors in every constituency. With the NDF collapsing, there aren’t many strong parties left to compete, so in some areas, it’s possible only one candidate will stand unopposed and win automatically.”

Currently, intense armed conflicts are ongoing across Myanmar. Some of the constituencies scheduled for elections are under the control of armed groups, while others are in areas of heavy fighting.

As a result, political parties are struggling to select candidates and are facing significant security challenges in participating in the election. Similarly, registered voters are worried about their safety when it comes to casting their ballots.

CNI News
21 September 2025

After Myanmar’s political change in 2021, armed conflicts expanded and intensified across the country. Observers are now closely watching the political stance of the three Shan armed groups.

Shan State and Shan ethnic regions are rich in natural resources and home to many ethnic groups.

The three Shan armed groups are the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), The Shan State Progress Party (SSPP), and The Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA).

Since 2021, these groups have neither allied with the Myanmar Tatmadaw nor joined revolutionary forces to fight, according to military and political analysts.

It might be because they fear the people’s suffering and the national crisis would be worsen, said U Khun Sai, a participant in the peace process, in an interview with CNI News.

“RCSS has firmly stood on the principle that political problems must be solved by political means, ever since it signed the bilateral ceasefire in 2011. That is still their main position. If they were to join in a certain side now, the situation could worsen instead of improving. The SSPP is part of the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC). The Wa (UWSA), which leads FPNCC, has also taken the position that the crisis should be resolved politically rather than militarily, and SSPP follows this line. Not long ago, when I met some of their leaders, they said: ‘What would change if we fought? The people would only suffer more. They are already facing so much hardship, and if we fought, it could become even worse. We see that. So, we are waiting for opportunities to resolve the situation peacefully.’”, he said.

General Yawd Serk with Senior General Min Aung Hlaing

RCSS leaders frequently attended talks in Nay Pyi Taw with Senior General Min Aung Hlaing during the SAC era, and RCSS leader General Yawd Serk was even awarded the honorary title “Wunna Kyawhtin” in 2022.

The SSPP, meanwhile, is a member of the FPNCC, an alliance of armed groups led by the United Wa State Army (UWSA).

However, clashes sometimes occur between these groups and the Myanmar Tatmadaw. Skirmishes also break out between RCSS and SSPP forces, while battles occasionally break out between the SNA and the KIA-PDF allied forces.

Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Shanni Nationalities Development Party (TNDP), told CNI News that the three groups are acting based on what they see as right and wrong for the Shan cause:

The SNA troops

“It’s complicated. But in my view, the three groups (RCSS, SSPP, SNA) have decided for themselves what is right and wrong for the Union. For example, the SNA used to clash with the Myanmar Tatmadaw, but since after 2021, they have become quite close.
Meanwhile, SSPP and RCSS don’t really interact with each other, though they may have some internal dealings. They all look at the Shan cause and make their own judgment of who is right or wrong. That’s why they remain in this position. There may well be behind-the-scenes links, of course.”, he said.

In August this year, SSPP leaders, along with TNLA and MNDAA, went to Panghsang at the invitation of the UWSA.

At that meeting, the Wa informed their allied armed groups that they would not be providing any weapons or financial assistance to facilitate military operations.

CNI News

21 September 2025

The issue of rare earth minerals, whose demand is rapidly increasing in the global market, could become highly significant in Myanmar’s political bargaining, according to military and political analysts who spoke to CNI News.

They noted that rare earth deposits in Myanmar are not limited to Kachin State, but are also found in Shan State, Sagaing Region, and other areas.

Because of its importance, the military commander-in-chief would not easily grant full approval or agreements on rare earth mining to any party, said U Khun Sai, who is involved in peace processes, speaking to CNI News.

“Rare earth is not only in Kachin. It is also in Shan and in many other areas. Myanma Economic Holdings Limited has at least five rare earth sites located within territories controlled by the Tatmadaw. It may be called ‘rare,’ but in reality, it’s not that rare. That’s why this rare earth issue will certainly become very significant in political bargaining. The Commander-in-Chief is a shrewd man—he knows this. So I don’t think he will easily give full agreements to anyone.”, he said.

According to data released by China’s Customs Department, Myanmar’s exports of rare earth minerals to China rose from 17,400 tons in 2020 to 40,000 tons in 2023.

However, due to the illicit nature of many mining operations, the exact amount of rare earth minerals actually extracted during that period is unknown.

Rare earths are indispensable for the production of smartphones, electric vehicles, military weapons, fighter jets, and other advanced technologies worldwide.

Among roughly 300 rare earth mining sites in Kachin State, many areas are now under the control of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA),, which captured them  from a militia leader, Zahkun Ting Ying.

Mining companies operating in Kachin State are generally nominal companies for Chinese investors or joint ventures with them. Current mining operations and revenues from rare earth extraction and exports to China remain largely under KIA control.

The KIA has previously demanded that Hpakant be designated as a liberated zone, and now it is also using the rare earth issue as leverage in political negotiations, said Sai Htay Aung, Chairman of the Tai Leng (Shanni) Nationalities Development Party (TNDP).

He said:“Back in 1994, when the KIO/KIA had made peace, they demanded Hpakant be declared a liberated area. Today, they are holding on to the rare earth issue, so it’s impossible to say they won’t use it as political leverage. Rare earth has become the world’s number one resource. Myanmar’s deposits include three of the world’s rarest types. This makes the rare earth issue very politically important. The revenues are also massive. If mining were carried out under government oversight, the public could benefit. But now, since it’s extracted in cooperation with armed groups, the people have no say. Even if they protest, it only lasts briefly. Rare earth is going to be an increasingly important sector in Myanmar’s politics.”

During the State Security and Peace Commission chairman’s recent trip to China, an agreement was reached with Indian Prime Minister Modi regarding rare earth mining. Following this, India’s Ministry of Mines encouraged both state-owned and private companies to collect rare earth samples from mines in northeastern Myanmar, currently under KIA control, Reuters reported.

A KIA official, who requested anonymity, also told Reuters that if the KIA were to export large volumes of rare earths to India, they would agree to allow sample studies.

Some policy papers have even been submitted to the U.S. government led by President Donald Trump, in which the US should seek ways to obtain rare earth minerals from the KIA-controlled territories via India.

CNI News
20 September 2025

Timor-Leste will not permit the establishment of offices or unlawful activities by organizations opposing the Myanmar government, said Mr. Bendito dos Santos Freitas, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation of Timor-Leste.

He made the statement during a meeting with Myanmar’s Foreign Minister U Than Swe in Nay Pyi Taw on September 18, 2025.

He also suggested that a Myanmar embassy could be opened in Dili, Timor-Leste.

A delegation led by Minister Mr. Bendito dos Santos Freitas visited Myanmar from September 17 to 19, 2025, on an official working trip.

During the meeting between the two foreign ministers, both sides agreed to strengthen diplomatic relations in accordance with ASEAN charters, principles, and standards, and not to interfere in each other’s internal affairs, according to a press release from Myanmar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The discussions also included the possibility of signing a visa exemption agreement for holders of diplomatic and special passports between the two countries, as well as an agreement to facilitate tourism by granting visa exemptions for visitors from both sides.

Previously, Timor-Leste President José Ramos-Horta had said that his country recognized Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG), which is fighting to topple the military-led government headed by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, and that NUG would be allowed to open an office in Timor-Leste.

President José Ramos-Horta made that remark when he met with NUG Foreign Minister Daw Zin Mar Aung on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in 2024, according to Daw Zin Mar Aung’s comments to the media.

Following that, the Myanmar military government led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing objected to Timor-Leste’s application for ASEAN membership.

Amid these developments, after Senior General Min Aung Hlaing held talks and gained support from international leaders including Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Modi, Russian President Putin, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar, and Indonesian President Prabowo, Timor-Leste’s position appears to have shifted.

CNI News
20 September 2025

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, said that the Dawei Port would be upgraded in the best possible way.

He made the remark on September 18, 2025, during a meeting in Dawei, Tanintharyi Region, with departmental officials and local community leaders to discuss regional development.

“With regard to Dawei Port, dredging works are being carried out along the Dawei River so that vessels can enter and leave smoothly. The Dawei Port will be upgraded in the best possible way.”, said Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.

He added that the Dawei Airport is also being upgraded and expanded to enhance regional economic development and improve transportation links as well as that plans are underway to extend domestic flights to Bokpyin and Kawthaung as well.

The Dawei Deep Seaport Project was initiated with the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Thailand’s Italian-Thai Development Company and the Myanmar government on June 12, 2008. The project aimed to be completed within ten years, from 2010 to 2019.

The project included the Dawei Deep Seaport, an industrial zone, and a 105-mile eight-lane superhighway linking to Kanchanaburi Province in Thailand, as well as a railway line, power lines, oil and natural gas pipelines, and a cross-border economic zone.

These infrastructure projects were to be implemented under a BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) system with a 60-year concession.

Later, countries such as Singapore, China, India, and Russia expressed interest in investing in the Dawei Deep Seaport Project.