CNI News

14 November 2024

Although most of the people have accepted that armed and political conflicts can be solved by using federalism in Myanmar, some people are asking why the federalism is the best for Myanmar. 

As armed movements and armed groups emerged under the successive governments, democracy and federal problems were needed to be solved, chairman of the People's Party (PP) U Ko Ko Gyi told CNI News.

" Conflicts emerged continuously since Myanmar gained here independence because points and promises that are included in the Panglong Agreement were not implemented. One of the problems is politically ideological. At that period, armed movement of the Burma Communist Party was the biggest. Later, ethnic armed groups emerged based on equal rights and federalism. In 2021, armed groups that are related to democracy. So, it's necessary to solve the problems regarding democracy and federalism. Basic fact of the political problems is the livelihood problem of the people. Because of the inability to solve the problem, dissatisfactions arose among the public. These were mixed with political dissatisfactions, I think." he said.

Federalism was essential in Myanmar. But armed conflicts emerged because of not only political disagreements but also interests, pointed out military and political analysts. 

While seeing the NSPNC and political groups of the UPJDC

Regionally based federalism was the most suitable for Myanmar in implementation of democracy and federal administration, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the SAC during his meeting with the leaders of indigenous militia in northern Shan State on 10h September 2023.

Ethnic armed groups were demanding the rights of their ethnicities in the peace talks and weak in regional demanding; it was necessary to be organizations representing region rather than representing an ethnicity, said chairman of the SAC.

Over 20 representatives from 11 political parties, six EAOs, chairman and secretary of the National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee, and Center for Peace and Reconciliation (CPR) went on a trip to India to study the matters regarding the division pf power between the central government and states, equal rights and self-determination from 4th to 7th November 2024.

If the essence of federalism was understood and its principles were exactly implemented, it could be an answer to Myanmar, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News.

While seeing international diplomats, leaders of the SAC and leaders of the armed groups

" According to the federal theory, states can enjoy self-administration. Mainly, there were not equal rights between Regions and States under the rule of British, which was an ideological problem when Myanmar gained her independence. To solve the problem, if States will enjoy self-administrations and self-determinations in accordance with essence of federalism within the border of the current union and they all will live unitedly, it can be an answer to Myanmar." he said.

However, if stakeholders thought about beyond the federalism, the union would collapse and as a result, a great problem could arise not only in Myanmar but also in Southeast Asia, pointed out military analysts.

Although most stakeholders are making attempts to build a union based on federal and democracy, some EAOs have expressed that they have intended to build confederation and independence.

CNI News

14 November 2024

Battles have been taking place more severely in Rakhine State and as trade sanction has been imposed on the state, the question how to resolve so as not to make Rakhine State face famine has emerged. 

About two million people in Rakhine State could face famine, warned the United Nation Development Program (UNDP) on 7th November 2024.

Trade routes had been blocked because battles were breaking out and political talks were needed to reduce battles, chairman of the Arakan National Network, U Tin Htoo Aung told CNI News.

" Because battles are breaking out, trade routes are closed. This is based on political problem. International organizations should push the two sides to arise political dialogues and come back to the right track for democracy. And all the stakeholders need to talk politically." he said.

While seeing a Yoma short cut between Gwa and Ngathaing Chaung (CJ)

The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) is demanding to remove all the restrictions so as not to cut out the flow of commodities and ban organizations that help and support.

An emergency fund was needed to carry out the tasks that could re-enliven agricultural sector and markets, said the UNDP. 

The people were getting into trouble because the flow of goods and medicine were blocked, U Myo Kyaw from the Arakan League for Democracy (ALD) told CNI News.

" If battles break out in Rakhine State, businesses, flow of commodities and medicines are banned. So, the people get into trouble. Food and medicine are essential. Battles have been breaking out since 2018. We are living on paddy grown here and aqua products. Now we are not allowed to grow paddy and to do business of fishery." he said.

While seeing the Arakan Army     

If agricultural industries and fishery were allowed to work, the people would not face famine, added U Myo Kyaw. 

According to the facts collected in 2023-2024, economy of Rakhine State almost did not operate, said Stephanie Tremblay, assistant spokesperson of the office of the UN Secretary General at the press conference held at the headquarters of the UN in New York. 

At present, battles are severely breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the Arakan Army (AA) in Ann, Taunggoat and Gwa Townships.

CNI News

13 November 2024

A new US government will be formed by Donald Trump who won the election and economic commentators are discussing whether the new government will lift the economic sanctions on Myanmar or not although the US government led by Joe Biden has imposed economic sanctions on Myanmar. 

The Biden government imposed economic sanctions on Myanmar since 2021 when political changes started emerging because it didn't like the administrative mechanism of Myanmar and imposed sanctions on the two banks of Myanmar government in 2023.

However, because Trump is a president who gives priority to economy, whether he would lift sanctions to an extent must be watched, U Aung Pyae Sone, a businessman, told CNI News.

While seeing trade activities

" Trump takes priority to economy than Biden does. Country leaders take first priority to the interests of their countries and other countries are second priority. How can the interests of the US impact on Myanmar? What kinds of opportunities can Myanmar win from its interests? It must be wisely watched by Myanmar. How the new US government could lift sanctions on Myanmar has to be watched." he said.

In the US presidential election held on 5th November 2024, Democratic candidate, Harris was defeated and Republican candidate, Donald Trump won. 

If Harris won the election, the US sanctions on Myanmar would go on and because Trump won the election, the sanctions on Myanmar could be lifted, considered economic commentators.

Although a few sanctions imposed on Myanmar could be reduced under the US government led by Trump, it was unlikely to reduce many sanctions. However, it would not seem to worsen Myanmar, U Htay Aung Kyi, a banking expert, told CNI News.

New US President Donald Trump

" Trump can't do fully whatever he wants. There are many mutual-controls in the US constitution. The President is powerful at the parliament. But in some cases, the parliament is more powerful. Trump hasn't told his ideology yet. His attention to relations in the international environment, democracy and human rights might decrease. Whatever he wants to, there are backbones in the international relation. He won't do anything beyond the backbones. So, it might be unlikely to worsen Myanmar. But it's not possible that many sanctions will be lifted." he said.

As Trump give priority to economy, the US dollar can be strong again and the prices of foreign currencies could go up again, presumed economic commentators. 

In that situation, as there are monetary inflations in Myanmar, prices of foreign currencies could go up more than the current prices. So, the central Bank should have made preparations to control the situation, suggested economic commentators.

CNI News

13 November  2024

Because the trade routes coming from the mainland to Rakhine State have been closed, Rakhine locals are mainly depending on the goods coming from India.

As all the trade routes have been closed since the end of 2023 when battles were resumed between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the Arakan Army, local people in Rakhine State are depending on the goods coming from India and especially locals from Ponnagyun, Kyauktaw, Mrauk U, Pauktaw and so on in northern Rakhine State are depending on the Indian commodities. 

Rakhine region produces rice only and apart from rice, it is importing other products from India, U Maung Thein Hla from the Danyawadi Farmers Federation in Mrauk U Township, told CNI News.

While seeing the Kaladan River flowing from India to Rakhine State through Paletwa

"Locals from northern Rakhine State such as Mrauk U and Kyauktaw have to depend on the Indian goods because they are near India. For the time being, they are mainly importing foodstuffs, medical products, fuel oil, harvesting machines, tractor spare parts. Regarding foodstuff, apart from rice, other foodstuffs all are imported." he said.

In comparison with the prices of goods imported from India in the end of 2023, the current prices are going up excessively. Although the price of edible oil was only 3,000 kyats per litter before, the current price has been 10,000 kyats. 

In the same way, the price of fuel oil was 10,000 kyats per litter in the past, the current price has been 30,000 kyats.

However, because the price of paddy that has been grown by locals has been lower, they are finding it difficult, U Maung San Hla, a local of Kyauktaw, told CNI News.

While seeing Paletwa Town in Chin State

" The goods imported from India mainly contain fuel oil, chilly, battery and solar panels. Their prices are very high because they have to come from illegal channels. The main product produced by locals here is paddy. But its price is just 10,000 kyats per basket. So,. locals are badly hurt." he said.

Indian commodities are carried to Kyauktaw through Paletwa Township in Chin State by waterway and then the commodities are distributed to other townships in Rakhine State

Now that the open season has come, although the transportation route has been better, locals are worried that the Indian side will close its export because the prices can rise.

CNI News

12 November 2024

As a change of government will emerge after the election in the US, economic analysts are discussing what Myanmar should have prepared to make Myanmar kyat strong. 

In the US presidential election that was held on 5th November, Democratic candidate Harris was defeated and Republican candidate Donald Trump won after which there will be a change of government.

Because Trump was a person who gave priority to economy, if the US dollar was strong again, the prices of foreign currencies could go up again; in order to control that situation, the controlling policy of the Central Bank must be watched, U Aung Pyae Sone, a businessman, told CNI News.

While seeing the US dollar

" If the economy of the US is strong, the price of the US dollar could be stronger. The price of dollr is 4,440, 4.500 kyats per dollar. We have to carry out so as not to be 5,000 or 6,000 kyats per dollar again. If the foreign investments entered Myanmar, the price of Myanmar kyat will be stronger. If the price of Myanmar kyat falls , the price of dollar will go up in a big way. We have to watch the policy of the Central Bank how it will handle. How long will the Central Bank prop up by injecting lots of the US dollars into the market? There is one thing for sure. Because of the US election, there'll be a change in the price of foreign currencies." he said.

The policies of the new US government may be different from those under the government led by President Biden, Most US citizens vote for Trump because they wanted the difference, said economic analysts. 

The US will carry out to make the US dollar strong again and the price of the US dollar could rise, U Htay Aung Kyi, a banking expert, told CNI News.

While dollars are being exchanged for Myanmar kyats

" According to an economic theory, you can't make any currency so strong. If the price of a currency go up extremely, it's not good. If the price falls extremely, it's not good as well. Generally, if the price of dollar goes up, it's good for exporters. But import is needed to export. Any country can't produce 100 percent finished products. Semi-finished products and raw materials have to be imported. South Korea, the US and Japan know economy very well. They will protect their countries from the trade deficit in the international trade. In some way, they seem to be reasons to make their currencies strong." he said.

Depending on the loans from China, the Central Bank might be able to sell foreign currencies including the US dollar, how much it will sell them, which must be questioned, pointed out economic analysts.

At present, the Central Bank has already sold over one billion dollars during 2024.

CNI News

12 November 2024

Due to higher prices of chicken feed currently, the prices of eggs have become higher as well, according to chicken pens and wholesales centers. 

Because chicken feed is imported, at present the prices of chicken feed have gone up in a big way; as chicken breeders make losses, some pens have suspended and there has been a demand for eggs. So, the prices of egg have risen, said chicken breeders.

Although the price of an egg is 500 kyats in the market, chicken pens get only 380 kyats per egg; although the price of egg was just 7,000 kyats per viss in the past, now has been 10,000 kyats, a businessman of egg chicken livestock from Htaukkyant Township, Yangon Region, U Tun Ngwe told CNI News.

" The prices of chicken feed have gone up inordinately. So, chicken breeders make a loss. Some of them can't operate their business any more. As the eggs have been scarce, the price goes up but a little. Chicken breeders don't even get 400 kyats per egg, but just 380 kyats. The current price of egg is 10,000 kyats per viss. A viss contains about 27 eggs. The price was just 7,000 kyats before or about one month ago. That price was not convenient for chicken breeders." he said.

While eggs were being lined up

The price was until 450 kyats per egg in the end of August and fell to 300 kyats in September. In that period, egg chicken breeders made a loss and at present, the price go up until 450 to 500 kyats. 

Egg chicken breeders make a profit at the current price, Ko Min, an egg chicken livestock businessman told CNI News.

" At the current price, chicken breeders make a profit to an extent. Chickens need healthcare. They are different from other products. It's necessary to make a profit by 20 percent so that it can make up for the investment. Now that chicken breeders can sell an egg at 380 kyats, they make a profit a little." he said.

Because the price of chicken feed has gone up, it affects the customers and if the prices of chicken feed and raw materials can be reduced, the prices of egg would fall as well. So, departments concerned needed to carry out to make the prices fall, said chicken breeders and customers.

CNI News

12 November 2024

The excursion regarding constitution and federalism of Myanmar political parties, EAOs and delegates from the peacemaking committee to India supported the building of Myanmar, those who were included in the excursion told CNI News. 

The excursion contained 11 political parties, six EAOs, chairman and secretary of the National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) and 20 delegates of the Center for Peace and Reconciliation (CPR).

The excursion lasted from 4th to 7th November and they reportedly studied matters relating to the division of power between the central government and states, equal rights and self-determination. 

The issue of Myanmar could not be solved with military means and it could be only with discussions regarding the reformation of constitution, U Ko Ko Gyi, chairman of the People's Party (PP), who was included in the excursion, told CNI News.

While seeing the NSPNC and the political groups from the UPJDC

" Military means can't produce an answer. So, mainly, how shall we go to the federalism and the administrative system of our country? Depending on the excursion, there are discussions regarding the reformation of constitution. If we can discuss about it more widely, an progress may be won. And then, more widespread reformations have to be conducted. It's unlikely to be perfect in one sitting." he said.

The constitution of India had not been broken since India gained her independence. But it was amended 106 times without being any coup there. 

India became a country that has developed with its constitution being negotiated and amended, from which a lesson must be taken, pointed out political parties.

The discussion should be conducted how to benefit Myanmar from the constitution of India and its incidences, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP) Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News.

While seeing international diplomats, leaders of the SAC and leaders of armed groups

" They said that federal is the division of power between the central government and states and they have their own separate autonomies. They cooperate. It's the India's federal. When we have passed through 1947, 1974 and 2008 constitutions, we should take out some samples from India and make them useful to Myanmar. There are 135 races in Myanmar, but by the thousand in India. There is an answer to how such a big country has been built to become developed." he said.

Myanmar needed a constitution that could end armed conflicts and create a peaceful and stable political layout, pointed out political parties.

India delivered a lecture on constitutionalism and federalism in Naypyidaw, Myanmar in 2017 for the first time and in India on 5th and 6th November 2024 for the second time. Attempts are being conducted to build the union based on federal and democracy.

CNI News

11 November 2024

Over two million Myanmar citizens whose work permits will expire in February 2025 will be allowed to renew four years of their work permits by renewing every two years, stated the Myanmar Embassy. 

The decision came after officials from the two countries met and discussed the matter regarding Myanmar migrant workers on 5th November, according to the statement released by the Myanmar Embassy.

However, Myanmar workers who would renew would directly face paying tax, U Aung Kyaw from the Labor Right Foundation told CNI News.

While officials from the Myanmar Embassy and Thai authorities were meeting and discussing

" It is convenient for Myanmar workers because they will be allowed to renew their work permits until four years in a row by extending every two years. Myanmar workers get into trouble if they have to renew their work permits every year because they have to hire brokers to renew and the service fee costs them a lot. But to the best of my knowledge, they will have to face the tax directly." he said.

Myanmar migrant workers' temporary residence permits and work permits need to be valid until over two years on 13th February 2025 reportedly. 

Myanmar migrant workers whose passports are not valid within over two years to come can renew at the Myanmar consulate in Chiangmai.

Because the Ministry of Labor has announced to pay the tax since 2023, Myanmar migrant workers who have not paid the tax yet would be hurt more, Ko Moe Lay, a migrant worker, told CNI News.

While Myanmar migrant workers were waiting to make documents

" What I've heard about tax, if a migrant worker changes into new CI book, they have to pay the tax. Migrant workers must pay the tax. If the passports don't expire, visas and work permits can be renewed in Thailand. Mainly, if the migrant worker can change into red books at the embassy and CI books can be renewed only in Thailand, it will be more convenient for migrant workers." he said.

According to the statement released by the Myanmar Embassy in Bangkok, negotiations have been conducted already to change from old CI books to new ones and an official statement will be released soon.

As Myanmar workers in the factories and workshops in Thailand, if they want to change from passports to passports or from CI to passports on the mobile team, they can come to the Myanmar Consulate and carry out them, said in the statement.

CNI News

11 November 2024

What might be the root cause of armed conflicts taking place across the country must be find out, pointed out military and political analysts. 

The root cause of armed conflict was because there were no equal rights in accordance with the constitution and the way to end the conflict was to amend the constitution or to write a new constitution, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP) Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News.

" The root cause of armed conflict is because there has been no equal right which has been enjoyed. So, the only way that can solve the armed conflict is giving equal right in accordance with the constitution. So, if the problem is related to the constitution, the armed conflict must be solved by the constitution. A law relating to the constitution, democracy and federal is needed. According to the constitution, equal right, self-administration and self-determination must be fully given to ethnic people." he said.

While seeing international diplomats, leaders of the SAC and leaders of armed groups

Something like the national assembly is needed to grant self-administration and self-determination, pointed out Dr. Aye Maung. 

" If some thing like the National Assembly could be created by the current government, powerful countries could help make all the armed groups participate in the peacemaking. China could help make the armed groups along the China's border take part and so could India and Thailand. All the armed organizations including the Myanmar Tatmadaw need a point of assembly like this. It's an assembly on peace or principles of the constitution." he said.

Because of political disagreements that started from 1st February 2021, armed conflicts have been breaking out widely across the country and the number of IDPs were over six millions until October 2024, according to the ISP Myanmar.

While seeing leaders of the MNDAA, the TNLA and the AA

It wouldn't be unlikely to negotiate between the both sides anymore, U Than Soe Naing, a Myanmar political commentator, told CNI News. 

" The both sides don't seem to negotiate. (Sr-Gen) Min Aung Hlaing goes on waging the terrorist war. The rest people (revolutionary forces) are making preparations to launch offensives from the defensive war. So, peace talks will never arise as long as Min Aung Hlaing exists. Both sides are to reach a situation that can decide militarily. Because the peace process the military council is talking about contains one-sided demands, it's unlikely to arise peace talks. As the people won't stop this battle as long as the military council steps down and the 2008 constitution is dissolved, there won't be alternative. So, they'll go on fighting." he said.

While seeing Chinese PM Li Chang and Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing

The Myanmar Tatmadaw has announced the unilateral ceasefire since 2018 and implemented it; only when armed groups started fighting, would the Myanmar Tatmadaw fight back, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing when he met with the Chinese PM Li Chang on 6th November 2024.

And then, only when the Three Brotherhood Alliance (MNDAA,TNLA,AA) really wanted peace, would the Myanmar Tatmadaw discuss, he added. 

Battles are severely breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and EAOs/PDFs in Sagaing, Magway, Mandalay, Bago, Tanintharyi Regions, Shan, Kachin, Karen, Kayah, Chin, Mon and Rakhine States.