CNI News

18 August 2025

Military and political analysts say that if both the ruling class and those waging armed revolution in Myanmar can achieve their desires and have political guarantees, the situation could change.

Armed organizations are striving to gain administrative control over their territories, and because each is acting as its own sovereign, the war must continue. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has stated that armed groups should make their demands through the Hluttaw.

Colonel Khun Okkar of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S) told CNI News that if both sides calculate that the people of the states will suffer, and if they can both obtain what they want with political guarantees, the situation could change.

He said, “In any case, if military conflict and violence escalate, it is the local people of the states who will suffer. With that calculation, the political course can be changed if they choose to. However, it’s not about changing course after admitting defeat and suffering losses. If both sides can get what they want and have guarantees for their political rights, then it is possible the situation could change. Since the system is dominated by the military, if we want to transition to democracy and if ethnic groups want equal rights, transitioning to a federal system through political or peaceful means would cause the least harm. With armed means, it's very difficult to achieve a 100 percent sudden change, completely overturning the entire system. Given the country's condition and traditions, it is very difficult.”

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and the RCSS Chairman General Yawd Serk

Currently, armed groups in Myanmar are demanding the establishment of democracy, the building of a federal union, and a reduction in the military's dominance.

Some Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) are fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw with demands for confederal status, the right to establish separate independent territories, and the rights to self-determination and self-administration.

Among the armed groups, the KIA (Kachin Independence Army) is the most politically astute. They are currently seen trying to gain an advantage over the Myanmar Tatmadaw by releasing photos of meetings with Spring Revolution forces, according to U Htet Aung Kyaw, Vice-Chairman of the National Democratic Force (NDF) party, who spoke to CNI News.

The NSPNC and 5 NCA-S EAOs

He said, "We cannot succeed by trying to eliminate each other. For us, politics is about turning enemies into friends. Because we are people who genuinely want to implement the policy of moving forward in unity, we truly support negotiation and dialogue, no matter with whom. The recent meetings at the KIA headquarters with other groups can be seen as an offer to the government that they are willing to discuss and negotiate. By doing this, it shows their political shrewdness among the armed groups. It is primarily increasing its bargaining power. When it comes to discussions, it can show that it has these assets. It can show that if it provides more support to these groups, this side ( the Myanmar Tatmadaw) will become more unstable, that it has these weapons, these hidden cards. However, it will discuss, it will negotiate. I see the release of these photos as a way for it to gain more bargaining power."

During July and August 2025, Spring Revolution forces—including the Chin Brotherhood (CB), Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF), Yaw Defence Force, Myingyan PDF, NUG ministers, and Naga armed groups—gathered and held discussions with the KIA at their headquarters.

CNI News

18 August 2025

Military and political analysts told CNI News that the Arakan Army (AA) does not need to consider China's wish in the same way as its brotherhood allies, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA).

At a press conference on August 11, 2025, AA spokesperson U Khaing Thukha told the media that unlike the situation where Lashio city was handed over to the Myanmar Tatmadaw due to Chinese pressure, they have no intention of handing over territories.

Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs analyst, told CNI News that China's main pressure is to reopen border trade, and due to its different geographical location from Kokang and Ta'ang areas, the AA can remain independent of China.

She said, "The geographical situation is different. Geographically, they can stay clear of China. That's why they don't have to fear Chinese pressure much. In reality, China's main pressure is its desire to open border trade. Therefore, the MNDAA and the Ta'ang, which are at the border, have to open border trade for their economies to function. That's why they had to open it. Over there [in Rakhine], what pressure can China exert? The Kyaukphyu deep-sea port issue has been guaranteed by the AA from the beginning. They have already guaranteed that nothing will happen to it. That's why China cannot exert any pressure on them. They don't need to be too concerned with China's interests."

A crossroads in Rakhine State

Furthermore, AA spokesperson U Khaing Thukha stated at the press conference that there are some different background conditions between the AA and its brotherhood allies, and therefore, it is less likely that they will hand over towns.

He told the media that the AA has currently seized over 90 percent of Rakhine State and will continue to march forward to achieve its set goals.

U Myo Kyaw from the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA) told CNI News that as China is a major power not only for Myanmar but for the world, its pressure will, to some extent, affect the AA.

He said, "Regarding the pressure, China is a global superpower. Its pressure can affect not only our country, Myanmar, but also the revolutionary forces and revolutionary armies within Myanmar, just as its influence extends to ASEAN countries. When a major power like China uses its strength, even many countries in the world cannot withstand its influence to a certain extent. Therefore, we are aware that there will be some level of impact."

Currently, the AA has captured 14 townships, including Paletwa in Chin State, with only three towns—Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung—remaining [under junta control in Rakhine].

Among these remaining three towns, fighting with the Myanmar Tatmadaw has been intense in Kyaukphyu. It is understood that the AA has currently halted its offensive, switching to a defensive posture, and the military situation has become quiet.

CNI News
17 August 2025

Those involved in the peace process told CNI News that while the peace implementation committees formed under the previous SAC (State Administration Council) have been dissolved and are to be re-formed, the key figures should not be changed.

The Office of the National Defense and Security Council announced on August 1, 2025, that a total of 194 committees, commissions, and organizations—including the National Solidarity and Peace-making Negotiation Committee (NSPNC)—formed under the SAC had been dissolved.

Although the NSPNC has now been dissolved, it will be re-formed, but the main figures should not be changed, said PNLO-NCA.S Chairman, Colonel Khun Okkar, in an interview with CNI News.

“Of course, we were worried as soon as we knew that. What’s going on? For our NCA signatory groups, we have our dialogue partners. So, are our partners gone now? They said no—it will be re-formed as soon as possible. This is just about abolishing what had been established during the former government. Soon, everything will be reorganized as needed. Although they announced its dissolution, we see that the committee members are still continuing their work as usual. Yes, some personnel may be changed. But the main key figures should not be changed. Peripheral, less central members may come and go, but those who have long stood as dialogue partners—the leaders—have experience, familiarity, and trust. These are irreplaceable. So it seems that these leaders will be reinstated and given responsibilities again.” said Colonel Saw Kyaw Nyunt.

Peace committees formed to hold talks with ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) are often restructured whenever there is a change of government.

During President U Thein Sein’s administration, the Union Peace-making Work Committee (UPWC) and Myanmar Peace Center (MPC) were formed. Under the NLD government, they were dissolved and replaced by the National Reconciliation and Peace Center (NRPC) and Peace Commission (PC). Later, under the SAC, they were reorganized as the NSPNC.

Colonel Saw Kyaw Nyunt, spokesperson of the 7EAO Alliance, told CNI News that during U Thein Sein’s administration, because of the high level of mutual trust between the government and ethnic armed groups, the most important agreement—the NCA (Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement)—was able to emerge.

He added that when new structures are reorganized, trust must be rebuilt, which brings difficulties.

Major General Saw Kyaw Nyunt said: “After the NCA emerged, the leaders who had made efforts for the NCA were no longer involved when the NLD government took over in 2015–2016. That caused difficulties. It’s about trust. When you have people who’ve long worked with you, trust develops. But when new committees are formed with new people, you have to rebuild that trust, and make fresh efforts again. That brings challenges. If the people who had been involved from the very beginning are replaced, then the negotiation process itself becomes broader and more complicated. And for us, the ethnic armed organizations, rebuilding and implementing those things again takes time and is not easy. That’s why, although I say there are difficulties when changes happen, if the original key people who have been engaged from the start continue to be involved, even under a new name, then that can serve as an easier way amidst the difficulties. That’s what we’ve experienced.”

Among the bodies recently dissolved by the current Defense and Security Council were the National Solidarity and Peace-making Central Committee (NSPC), the National Solidarity and Peace-making Work Committee (NSPWC), the NSPNC, and the negotiation teams with ethnic armed organizations.

Although the NSPNC has been dissolved, plans are being made to form a new body, with the possibility of only minor changes to its representatives.

The NSPNC was the committee responsible for meeting with ethnic armed groups and discussing the peace process.

The NSPNC was chaired by Lieutenant General Yar Pyae (Minister for Border Affairs), with Lieutenant General Min Naing serving as Secretary. Other members included: 
Maj-Gen. Aung Kyaw Kyaw (Deputy Minister for Home Affairs)
Police Chief Win Zaw Moe
A Colonel (Office of the Chief of Military Security Affairs)
Brig. Gen. Wunna Aung (JMC)
U Hla Maung Shwe
Lt. Gen. Win Bo Shein (Retired)
Lt. Gen. Sein Win (Retired / Chairman of Myanmar War Veterans Organization)
Lt. Gen. Myo Thant Naing
U Myint Kyaing (Minister for Immigration and Manpower)
U Khin Maung Yi (Minister for Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation)

CNI News

17 August  2025

The 79th Naga Independence Day was jointly celebrated by the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang/Anmai (NSCN-K/AM), led by Anmai, and the National Socialist Council of Nagaland -Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) in the Naga region of Myanmar.

According to a statement from NSCN-K/AM, the 79th Naga Independence Day, which fell on August 14, 2025, was celebrated jointly by the NSCN-K/AM and NSCN-IM forces in the United Base Area (as the Naga armed groups call it), located within Myanmar’s Naga Self-Administered Zone.

The NSCN-K/AM group stated, "A photograph of the combined force of the Naga Army NSCN-K and NSCN-IM was taken and displayed at the combined camp in the United Base Area on the Nagaland in Myanmar on August 14, 2025. This force is clearly present with the unified strength of an armed strategy to protect the motherland."

The NSCN-K/AM was formed on July 2, 2023, by Anmai, who was expelled by the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang/Yung Aung (NSCN-K/YA).

The National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN), which was formed in 1980, split into two factions in 1988 due to internal disagreements: the NSCN-K, led by Khaplang, and the NSCN-IM, led by Isak Chishi Swu and Muivah.

Of these two Naga armed groups, the NSCN-K/AM is based in Myanmar, while the NSCN-IM is based in India. However, the NSCN-IM also has a presence and operates in the Naga areas within Myanmar.

CNI News

16 August 2025

Government staff and the people are accused of being decoys and more killings of them could take place during the upcoming elections, so effective and preventive measures would be needed, said Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.

He said the above at the meeting of the SSPC held in Naypyidaw on August 12. There may be individuals and organizations local and abroad that could do subversive acts not to make the election succeed and they could disrupt the election in various ways, said Chairman of the SSPC.

" Killings of government staff and people after being accused of informers could take place more, so effective and preventive measures will be needed. Those culprits will be identified collaboratively and it's necessary to prosecute them as soon as possible." said Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.

The Union Election Commission told CNI News that elections will be held in 267 townships in Myanmar in December 2025 and January 2026.

Some EAOs, the National Unity Government (NUG), the National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC), the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), the People's Defense Forces and the Spring Revolution forces have announced that they will sabotage the election.

While seeing those who were casting ballots

Similarly, they have announced that they will effectively take action against those who participate in the election. So, political parties and candidates that will run the election are worried about their security.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing told officials concerned to make measures in order to protect candidates, political parties and the people.

Then, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing enacted the law of protecting multi-party democratic general elections from disturbance and subversiveness on July 29.

According to the law, those who disturb and damage the election, commit homicide and agitate to commit homicide can be sentenced at least 10 years in prison and at most life imprisonment and death sentence.

CNI News

16 August 2025

Government staff and the people are accused of being decoys and more killings of them could take place during the upcoming elections, so effective and preventive measures would be needed, said Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.

He said the above at the meeting of the SSPC held in Naypyidaw on August 12. There may be individuals and organizations local and abroad that could do subversive acts not to make the election succeed and they could disrupt the election in various ways, said Chairman of the SSPC.

" Killings of government staff and people after being accused of informers could take place more, so effective and preventive measures will be needed. Those culprits will be identified collaboratively and it's necessary to prosecute them as soon as possible." said Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.

The Union Election Commission told CNI News that elections will be held in 267 townships in Myanmar in December 2025 and January 2026.

Some EAOs, the National Unity Government (NUG), the National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC), the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), the People's Defense Forces and the Spring Revolution forces have announced that they will sabotage the election.

While seeing those who were casting ballots

Similarly, they have announced that they will effectively take action against those who participate in the election. So, political parties and candidates that will run the election are worried about their security.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing told officials concerned to make measures in order to protect candidates, political parties and the people.

Then, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing enacted the law of protecting multi-party democratic general elections from disturbance and subversiveness on July 29.

According to the law, those who disturb and damage the election, commit homicide and agitate to commit homicide can be sentenced at least 10 years in prison and at most life imprisonment and death sentence.

CNI News

15 August 2025

Since those who oppose the election might carry out in various ways not to make the election successful, security must be guaranteed, said Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission. 

He said the above during the meeting of the SSPC that was held in Naypyidaw on August 12, 2025.

"We must ensure security for voting in the relevant townships within the specified time period. There may be individuals and organizations that will carry out subversive activities, both domestically and internationally, to prevent the election from taking place. They can use all kinds of methods to prevent the election from succeeding," he said.

Then, as for foreign countries, there may be positive countries that support the holding of multi-party democratic general elections in our country, while there may also be countries that criticize the elections. 

While the meeting of the military commission was being held

Therefore, he said, efforts must be made to ensure that the upcoming election is a free, fair and corruption-free election, he said.

“Political party members and candidates participating in the election must be provided with the necessary protection to ensure their safe and secure operation from the campaign period to the voting period. As killings of civil servants and the people, accusing them as decoys, are likely to increase during the election period, effective prevention and protection measures will be needed," he said.

In Myanmar, plans have been made to hold elections in 267 townships in December 2025 and January 2026, the Union Election Commission (UEC) told CNI News.

Then, some ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), including the National Unity Government (NUG), the National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC), The Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw  (CRPH), the People's Defense Forces (PDF), and the Spring Revolution Forces, have announced that they will completely disrupt the upcoming elections in Myanmar.

Therefore, political parties, candidates that will compete in the election and voters are concerned about security.

CNI News

15 August 2025

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing would not hold the election due to pressure from China, but rather China called it by ear depending on what he said, China-Myanmar affairs analyst Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw told CNI News.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing's plan to hold elections in December 2025 and January 2026 is widely viewed as a result of Chinese pressure. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing's decision to hold elections was not due to Chinese pressure, but to gain legitimacy for him, said Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw. 

" The Senior General's plan to hold elections is not because of Chinese pressure, but to gain legitimacy for him. He staged a coup d'etat, claiming because of the NLD's vote fraud. Only when elections are held again, will it be convenient for him to become the Present. He tries to gain legitimacy. China followed suit only after the Senior General said. And then, China requested the Senior General to release Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and not to declare the NLD as an unlawful association. So, China had to follow suit." she said.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has promised the international community that elections will be held in December 2025 and January 2026, and the country's governance structure has changed since July 31. 

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and the President Xi Jinping

There are speculations among military and political analysts that this change is due to pressure from China. Furthermore, there are reports that Senior General Min Aung Hlaing is determined to hold the election in December, whether he likes it or not.

However, there are differences of opinion both domestically and internationally on whether elections are likely to take place. There are concerns that holding the election will create further difficulties and crises amid widespread armed conflicts across most of the country, Col. Saw Kyaw Nyunt, a spokesperson for the 7EAO Alliance, told CNI News.

“The extent to which the public is interested in the election is also a major challenge. As we all know, regional stability is so bad. This is the first time that our country has experienced a large-scale armed conflict when elections will be held. So, the 7 EAO Alliance are worried that elections will create further difficulties and crises." he said.

Malaysia, the rotating chair of ASEAN, has urged that all relevant organizations can only discuss the issue by prioritizing an end to all violence, rather than prioritizing the election. However, China, India, Thailand, and Bangladesh, which are all Myanmar's neighboring countries, welcomed the upcoming elections in Myanmar.

Moreover, neighboring countries see the election as a way out, and military and political analysts believe that these countries will continue to encourage the election.

CNI News
14 August 2025

The Spring Revolution armed groups gathered and discussed a few days ago and what it could happen to military and politics is being considered by military and political analysts.

In July and August 2025, the Chin Brotherhood (CB), Karenni National Defense Force (KNDF), Yaw Tattaw, Myingyan PDF, NUG Ministers, and Naga armed groups gathered at the KIA headquarters to meet and discuss with the KIA.

The gathering of Spring Revolution forces at the KIA headquarters means they can discuss the issue of lost territories and collective action, U Li Paw Reh, chairman of the Lisu National Development Party, told CNI News.

“The public is not the same as before. During the election period, they can carry out military operations and then cause a little disturbance. But after the election, if the people’s government, the elected government, and the elected representatives come to power, the military can launch many offensives. The areas that the armed groups have seized may also be lost. So, it is likely that armed groups are gathering and consulting because their military situation is not so good. To tell you frankly, they have lost Bhamo as well. And they have lost many territories in Tanai. The KIA alone can't wage military operations anymore. They possible will discuss to wage operations with collective strength." he said.

While seeing the KIA leader, Lt-Gen Gun Maw and the Yaw Army

The KIA is providing military training and living support to the Spring Revolution forces, including weapons and ammunition, and is also providing support for joint operations in Sagaing Region and Kachin State.

The gathering of Spring Revolution forces at the KIA headquarters in advance may be a negotiation for survival rather than preparation for the election period, U Thein Tun Oo, Executive Director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies, told CNI News.

" Currently, the Myanmar Tatmadaw has the upper hand in areas where the Defense and Security Council is effectively handling. It has been able to regain control of some towns. Their gathering like this is possible that they are conspiring something for their last defense. As the election is drawing near, are they conspiring something to disturb the election?  There are many other things possible as well. They seem to try to protect their territories in a form of collective protection. They negotiated how they go on rather than disturbing the election, I think." said U Thein Tun Oo.

While seeing the NUG and the Chin Brotherhood

AA, ENDA/ENNO, NUG, NUCC, CNF, ABSDF, and PDF are currently gathering at the Headquarters of the KIA, said sources close to them.  The Union Election Commission (UEC) is planning to hold elections in Myanmar in December 2025 and January 2026.

Considering the political situation in Myanmar before and after the election, the KIA is meeting with the Spring Revolution forces and preparing for military and political action, said sources close to the matter.

On the other hand, the KIA has made offers to meet and discuss with the Myanmar Tatmadaw, and the two sides are negotiating a location for the talks, according to sources close to both organizations.