CNI News
18 August 2025
Military and political analysts say that if both the ruling class and those waging armed revolution in Myanmar can achieve their desires and have political guarantees, the situation could change.
Armed organizations are striving to gain administrative control over their territories, and because each is acting as its own sovereign, the war must continue. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has stated that armed groups should make their demands through the Hluttaw.
Colonel Khun Okkar of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S) told CNI News that if both sides calculate that the people of the states will suffer, and if they can both obtain what they want with political guarantees, the situation could change.
He said, “In any case, if military conflict and violence escalate, it is the local people of the states who will suffer. With that calculation, the political course can be changed if they choose to. However, it’s not about changing course after admitting defeat and suffering losses. If both sides can get what they want and have guarantees for their political rights, then it is possible the situation could change. Since the system is dominated by the military, if we want to transition to democracy and if ethnic groups want equal rights, transitioning to a federal system through political or peaceful means would cause the least harm. With armed means, it's very difficult to achieve a 100 percent sudden change, completely overturning the entire system. Given the country's condition and traditions, it is very difficult.”
Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and the RCSS Chairman General Yawd Serk
Currently, armed groups in Myanmar are demanding the establishment of democracy, the building of a federal union, and a reduction in the military's dominance.
Some Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) are fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw with demands for confederal status, the right to establish separate independent territories, and the rights to self-determination and self-administration.
Among the armed groups, the KIA (Kachin Independence Army) is the most politically astute. They are currently seen trying to gain an advantage over the Myanmar Tatmadaw by releasing photos of meetings with Spring Revolution forces, according to U Htet Aung Kyaw, Vice-Chairman of the National Democratic Force (NDF) party, who spoke to CNI News.
The NSPNC and 5 NCA-S EAOs
He said, "We cannot succeed by trying to eliminate each other. For us, politics is about turning enemies into friends. Because we are people who genuinely want to implement the policy of moving forward in unity, we truly support negotiation and dialogue, no matter with whom. The recent meetings at the KIA headquarters with other groups can be seen as an offer to the government that they are willing to discuss and negotiate. By doing this, it shows their political shrewdness among the armed groups. It is primarily increasing its bargaining power. When it comes to discussions, it can show that it has these assets. It can show that if it provides more support to these groups, this side ( the Myanmar Tatmadaw) will become more unstable, that it has these weapons, these hidden cards. However, it will discuss, it will negotiate. I see the release of these photos as a way for it to gain more bargaining power."
During July and August 2025, Spring Revolution forces—including the Chin Brotherhood (CB), Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF), Yaw Defence Force, Myingyan PDF, NUG ministers, and Naga armed groups—gathered and held discussions with the KIA at their headquarters.
