CNI News
18 August 2025
Military and political analysts told CNI News that the Arakan Army (AA) does not need to consider China's wish in the same way as its brotherhood allies, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA).
At a press conference on August 11, 2025, AA spokesperson U Khaing Thukha told the media that unlike the situation where Lashio city was handed over to the Myanmar Tatmadaw due to Chinese pressure, they have no intention of handing over territories.
Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs analyst, told CNI News that China's main pressure is to reopen border trade, and due to its different geographical location from Kokang and Ta'ang areas, the AA can remain independent of China.
She said, "The geographical situation is different. Geographically, they can stay clear of China. That's why they don't have to fear Chinese pressure much. In reality, China's main pressure is its desire to open border trade. Therefore, the MNDAA and the Ta'ang, which are at the border, have to open border trade for their economies to function. That's why they had to open it. Over there [in Rakhine], what pressure can China exert? The Kyaukphyu deep-sea port issue has been guaranteed by the AA from the beginning. They have already guaranteed that nothing will happen to it. That's why China cannot exert any pressure on them. They don't need to be too concerned with China's interests."
A crossroads in Rakhine State
Furthermore, AA spokesperson U Khaing Thukha stated at the press conference that there are some different background conditions between the AA and its brotherhood allies, and therefore, it is less likely that they will hand over towns.
He told the media that the AA has currently seized over 90 percent of Rakhine State and will continue to march forward to achieve its set goals.
U Myo Kyaw from the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA) told CNI News that as China is a major power not only for Myanmar but for the world, its pressure will, to some extent, affect the AA.
He said, "Regarding the pressure, China is a global superpower. Its pressure can affect not only our country, Myanmar, but also the revolutionary forces and revolutionary armies within Myanmar, just as its influence extends to ASEAN countries. When a major power like China uses its strength, even many countries in the world cannot withstand its influence to a certain extent. Therefore, we are aware that there will be some level of impact."
Currently, the AA has captured 14 townships, including Paletwa in Chin State, with only three towns—Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung—remaining [under junta control in Rakhine].
Among these remaining three towns, fighting with the Myanmar Tatmadaw has been intense in Kyaukphyu. It is understood that the AA has currently halted its offensive, switching to a defensive posture, and the military situation has become quiet.
