CNI News

13 February 2025

Military and political analysts are discussing whether an all-inclusive conference could emerge to resolve the Myanmar political crisis that has been four years long. 

Although it is impossible to hold an all-inclusive conference at present, after the discussions with each group are completed, whether an all-inclusive conference could be held or not must be watched, Director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News.

" Whether an all-inclusive conference can be held soon or not is questionable. In my opinion, at this time, the main objectives of the armed groups are not the same now. After the SAC discusses with each group, if holding an all-inclusive conference is held, it might be convenient. It must be watched." he said.

The NSPNC and some EAOs that have signed the NCA discussed in order to hold a peace conference in 2023. 

While seeing leaders who attended the 21st Century Panglong Peace Conference

According to the NCA, if the conference was held, the NCA signatories only would be able to attend it. So, the conference that goes beyond the NCA could be held, considered by some people.

If a conference was held, it was necessary to include powerful EAOs, U Khun Sai who is included in the peace process told CNI News.

" If a conference is held, it's necessary to include powerful EAOs such as the UWSA and the NDAA so that whether the election can be held or the conference can be held, it will be supportive more or less," he said.

While a peace conference was being held

Although a Union Peace Conference was held under the former civilian government, it was just a little effective.

A Union Peace Conference was held under the government led by President U Thein Sein in 2016 and another one, under the government led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in August 2020.

When the NSPNC and the Work Group of political parties met and discussed, political parties presented to hold an all-inclusive peace conference.

However, the SAC has not expressed yet whether it would accept to hold a conference or not.

CNI News

12 February 2025

After reports emerged that former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin would visit Myanmar, whether he could help Myanmar find a way out of the current crisis is being discussed by military and political analysts. 

The reports emerged after the ASEAN special envoy to Myanmar Othman Hashim's trip to Naypyidaw.

If Naypyidaw accepted Thaksin's intervention, a negotiation could take place, the Chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

" If Naypyidaw accepted Thaksin's intervention, he could have the ability to push in a way that is not a hard line that is maintained by both his daughter handling on the Thai border and the Malaysian government. A negotiation that contains 60 or 70 percent of stakeholders could emerge without hurting anyone's dignity. The biggest benefit is that the election could be held with a little disruption." he said.

While seeing Thaksin and Sr-Gen Than Shwe

The ASEAN rotating chair, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar and former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin met on February 2, 2025, to discuss the Myanmar issue. 

If Thaksin came to Myanmar, it would be possible to plan in order that all the stakeholders could show up at the negotiation roundtable, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs commentator, told CNI News.

"I haven't heard anything from Thailand regarding the Myanmar issue. Chinese PM Li Chang said at a press conference the other day that China is trying to make an all-inclusive discussion emerge and find a solution together. When the Thai PM met with Chinese President Xi Jinping, they reportedly discussed Myanmar issue. Former Thai PM Thaksin has been very close to the Myanmar military leaders since the days of U Than Shwe and U Thein Sein. So, I think it's likely that he will come to Myanmar to discuss the Myanmar issue. Anwar is the rotating chairman of ASEAN. He told Xi Jinping that he would tackle the Myanmar crisis to end it quickly when he became the Chairman of the ASEAN. They seem to be trying to find an answer after they give in to the military council to an extent." she said.

While seeing Thaksin and Malaysian PM Anwar

Anwar announced that he appointed Thaksin as his advisor to help him in the ASEAN affairs at a joint press conference with Thai PM Paetongtarn on 16th December 2024. 

The meeting between Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar and former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin was beneficial to the ASEAN and focused on the Myanmar issues, said Thai PM Paetongtarn.

The ASEAN has promised to make Myanmar peaceful and Myanmar wants peace as well, said the Thai PM.

Armed conflicts are severely breaking out across Myanmar and there has been over three million IDPs, according to the UNOCHA on 3rd January 2025.

CNI News

12 February 2025

He came to Myanmar to support Myanmar's peace and prosperity, said Gurudev Sri Sri Ravi Shankar, an Indian humanitarian and global peace envoy. 

He met with the chairman of the State Administration Council, Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing in Naypyidaw on 9th February 2025.

Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing told Gurudev that he heartily welcomed Gurudev, a prominent figure who was trying to achieve global peace in various ways, for visiting Myanmar.

" I'm here in Myanmar to support the peace and prosperity of Myanmar as much as we can. I'm gladly proud of myself to meet and discuss with the Prime Minister like this." said Gurudev.

Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing explained to him the situations regarding the emergence of armed conflicts since Myanmar gained her independence until today, The circumstances of the implementation of internal peace processes through ages, Myanmar had been on the path to democracy since 2011, circumstances in which the military performed state duties because of the vote list fraud that occurred in the 2020 general election, reported the SAC.

Moreover, the Chairman of the SAC explained to Gurudev about the SAC's preparations for a free and fair multi-party democratic general election which will be held in Myanmar.

Saying the NLD party was trying to form a government without solving the vote list dispute in the 2020 general election, the Myanmar Tatmadaw overthrew the NLD government and took the State power. 

And then, some NLD leaders and members of the Hluttaw, pro-democracy activists, CSOs and armed groups have been waging the armed revolution to overthrow the SAC and the Myanmar Tatmadaw.

Because of the revolution, battles are severely breaking out across Myanmar and civilians are being killed and fleeing to safety.

CNI News

12 February 2025

There are controversies among military and political observers regarding whether the State Administration Council can maintain power under the 2008 constitution if the council cannot hold the election even though it has said that it will hold the election.

If the SAC chairman is going on like this without being able to hold election quickly, it is not the same as maintaining power anymore; as the chairman has promised that he will hold the election in 2025, elections are an inevitable landscape, Chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

" According to the current situation, whether the SAC chairman maintains power or stages a coup d'état, or it is consistent with the 2008 constitution, the election is an inevitable landscape. If the election can't be held quickly and the current situation continues, it's not the same as maintaining power anymore because maintaining power takes a few years. A general election must be held again. The election might not be an answer. But it could be the beginning of a path to finding answers." said Col. Khun Okkar.

While seeing the Union Election Commission and political parties

There are challenges and stability is still needed to hold the election. 

So, the SAC has been extended for another six months in accordance with the 2008 constitution starting from 1st February 2025.

Although the SAC chairman has said that the election will be held, he did not say exactly in which month the election would be held. 

So, regarding whether the SAC is in a position to definitely hold the election there are questions and estimations among military and political analysts.

On the other hand, armed elements are making attempts to overthrow the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the SAC. 

Moreover armed groups have announced that they would surely destroy the election that the SAC will hold.

Although holding elections is an outlet for Myanmar politics, the SAC is in a position to extend its tenure without holding elections and could continue to govern as it is now, general secretary of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) U Sai Leik told CNI News.

While seeing officials from some political parties

" The SAC may extend the state of emergency as it likes. Or it may hand over power to the National Defense and Security Council and take about six months to hold the election. But saying it's impossible to hold the election, the SAC can take power again. But whether doing so is convenient or inconvenient is just the next part." said U Sai Leik.

Saying that the NLD was trying to form a government without solving the vote list dispute in the 2020 general election, the Myanmar Tatmadaw announced the state of emergency on 1st February 2021 and took power. 

The SAC extended the state of emergency every six months starting from 1st February 2021 and it had served for four years on 1st February 2025.

According to Section.425 of the 2008 Constitution, calling it an unusual situation, the SAC has the right to extend the state of emergency as necessary. 

Moreover, as long as a new President is not  elected after the state power is handed over to the NDSC, the SAC has the right to rule the country under Section. 427.

CNI News

11 February 2025

The Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) was acting undemocratic things in northern Shan State, announced the Shan State Joint Action Committee (SSJAC) on 10th February 2025.

The TNLA has been changing the symbol representing Shan State which was drawn and carved on the entrance sign to Thibaw into that representing Palaung people since 7th February 2025. In the same way, the TNLA destroyed the old palace wall of Sao Su Kham Pha greatly respected by Shan nationalities in Hsellant Village, Muse Township on 7th August 2023, reported the SSJAC.

" At the time when the ancient palace walls of Sao Su Kham Pha, which are treasured by the Shan people, Shan organizations peacefully discussed and resolved it inste

ad of military means in order to prevent ethnic conflict." said the SSJAC.

While a symbol representing Palaung has been described on the entrance sign to Thibaw Town by the TNLA

In the same way, the TNLA acted the same cases in Mong Yu region, Kutkai Township and in Mong Yin region, Namtu Township. Moreover, the TNLA was acting undemocratic things in northern Shan State, which was disregarding the desire of local people, reported the SSJAC.

Because the TNLA was carrying out for the sake of its organization only without resect for the people and its actions were against the objectives of the current revolution. Moreover, the TNLA acted against the peaceful coexistence among nationalities with no conflict. So, it strongly condemns the actions of the TNLA, released the SSJAC.

In cooperation with the MNDAA, the AA, the BPLA, the KNDF, the PDF, the PLA and the DPLA, the TNLA launched Operation-1027 on 27th October 2023 and captured Namkham, Namtu, Nansang, Mangtong, Mong Ngor, Kutkai, Thibaw, Nawnghkio, Kyaukme, Mogok and Momeik.

The SSJAC is a committee that has been made up of Shan political parties, Shan EAOs and Shan CSOs.

CNI News

10 February 2025

Mutual shots broke out between the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the People's Defense Force (PDF) that are active based in Malan (Pemalan) Village, said locals. 

During the argument over the distribution of cabbage, the KIA started to punch after which mutual shots broke out on the night of 7th February 2025, said locals.

" Yesterday, in Pemalan Village, a former gold digging place, mutual shots broke out between the KIA and the PDF during the argument over the distribution of cabbage. The KIA started to punch. And then, mutual shots broke out." said a Hparkant local, adding that casualties on both sides had been unknown yet.

Even though the KIA and the PDF jointly attacked the Myanmar Tatmadaw, because the KIA tend to take all seized weapons and ammunition, there are disputes between the two sides, said those close to them.

" When the KIA-PDF joint forces attack the Myanmar Tatmadaw, the KIA takes all seized weapons and ammunition for the Myanmar Tatmadaw. And then, it provides the PDF as needed. So, the PDF has kept all seized weapons and ammunition from the battles they waged without letting the KIA know. Because the KIA has to resolve the PDF case sometime in the future, it should be able to control the PDF from now on." said a person close to the KIA-PDF.

Although CNI News tried to ask the KIA about the above-mentioned incidents, the contact is still not available.

The KIA and the PDF are jointly attacking the Myanmar Tatmadaw in Sagaing, Mandalay Regions, Kachin State and norther Shan State.

Currently, they are waging offensives in order to capture Bhamo Town in Kachin State as well as Inndaw, Banmauk and Homalin Towns in Sagaing Region.

CNI News

10 February 2025

The people in the Naga region and the people travelling within the region must not be at all recruited for military service, stated the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Kaplang/Ann Mai (NSCN-K/AM) on 7th February 2025. 

The written statement was sent to Chairman of the Naga Self-Administered Zone and the Khamti District Administrator by Chairman of the Peacemaking Committee of the NSCN-K/AM.

" We, the NSCN-K/AM, have no objection to the People's Military Service Law officially enacted by the SAC. But forced arrests shock the people and destabilize the community. So, we warn and inform officials concerned not to conduct at all forced recruitment for military service." said in the statement.

There are callings up into the Tatmadaw under the People's Military Service Law in the Naga region and Khamti Township, said locals.

The warning letter was also sent to Khamti military strategist, Khamti District Police Chief, Khamti Township Administrator and Khamti Township Police Chief. 

In the same way, the letter was sent to the General Administration Departments from Nanyun and Leshi Townships and Lahe region police chief.

The NSCN-K/AM is a Naga armed organization that seceded from the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Kaplang/Yung Aung (NSCN-K/YA) on 2nd July 2023.

 The Eastern Naga National Organization (ENNO/ENDA), the Naga People's Defense Force (Naga PDF), the National Socialist Council of Nagaland - Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM), the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Hashi Ram Sam (NSCN-HS), the NSCN-K/AM, and the NSCN-K/YA are being active in the Naga region.

CNI News

10 February 2025

Ethnic armed organizations should negotiate first to reach a consent because they are different from forms and methods, general secretary of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) U Sai Leik told CNI News. 

Military and political analysts are considering the goals of EAOs have been different in the political landscape  that changed after the NLD government was overthrown.

" The 7 Alliance members have signed the NCA. They are close to the military council. But of the FPNCC, the UWSA, the SSPP and the NDAA don't take part in the battles. The KIA takes part in the battles. But the position of Three Brotherhood Alliance is different. But the AA has announced that it wants the confederation. The TNLA says something different. On the other hand, there are the KNU and the CNF as well. So, a lot of negotiations have to be conducted. In my opinion, EAOs have to negotiate first to reach a consent among them. And then, if they negotiate with the military, it will be easier, I think." said U Sai Leik.

At present, with the help of China, the SAC met and discussed with the MNDAA alone and a temporary ceasefire has been reached between the two sides. 

China won't stop to make a discussion arise between the TNLA and the military council. 

China would urge the military council and the military council in the near future to meet and discuss, he thought, Chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

Although there were not 100 percent compromises at the meetings and discussions between the SAC and EAOs, he did not consider they would be enemies one another again, he said. 

While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and armed organizations' leaders

" There may be compromises in big problems or politically. Or after the ceasefire, they may be compromises in the trade matter. But there might not 100 percent compromises. I don't consider they will be enemies one another again after the compromises are broken." said Col. Khun Okkar.

Because there were challenges to hold the election and the stability was still needed, Chairman of the SAC extended the state of emergency for another six months on 1st February 2025 in accordance with the 2008 Constitution.

 As the chairman of the SAC has promised local and international community that the election will be held in 2025, whether the election could be held or not is being watched.

CNI News

10 February 2025

The post-election government would face big challenges, Vice Chairman of the National Democratic Force Party (NDF) U Htet Aung Kyaw told CNI News. 

Political parties must make necessary preparations for the election, said Chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC) Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing at the Work Coordination Meeting of the Union Government on 3rd February 2025.

The government that will come to power will face big challenges such as matters to stabilize the country, rampant weapons and social economic troubles of the public, said U Htet Aung Kyaw.

While Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing

" The SAC chairman has promised repeatedly that the election will be held in 2025. He has told chief ministers of states and regions to thoroughly study the laws and bylaws regarding the election. The election will be held without fail. But the SAC hasn't announced exactly when the election will be held. In fact, the government that will come to power from the election will face big challenges. It will have to stabilize the country that has been so badly hurt and resolve the problem of rampant weapons and social economic troubles of the public." said U Htet Aung Kyaw.

The SAC would carry out to make representatives representing ethnic people and all social classes take part in the Hluttaws that would arise from the election, said Chairman of the SAC. 
The election will be held in 2025 and the State power would be handed over to the winning party, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

Political parties must make necessary preparations and security, and stability will be needed for the election campaigns, he said.

The government that will come to power could take the responsibility to overcome the current crisis and be successful if it approached in a different way, it could achieve new successes, Chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP) Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News.

While seeing Dr. Aye Maung and U Htet Aung Kyaw

"The period of SAC's responsibility, the upcoming election, and the post-election government are likely to be linked. So, they will try to make the post election government be able to to take the responsibility, I think. According to the 2008 Constitution, the election is legitimate. There was a post-election government like that led by U Thein Sein. The post-election government that will come to power in the future could receive international support and recognition more than the current government. Will that government try in a different way to win the peace? Will it try in the current way? In our opinion, if it tries in a different way, it can receive new successes." said Dr. Aye Maung.

The Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH) announced on 5th February 2025 that it would lay down five strategic points and carry out, including the campaign against the election that the SAC is planning to hold.

A free and fair general election that can express the true will of the voters would be held without fail, said Chairman of the SAC Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.