CNI News
25 August 2025
A peace process participant, U Khun Saing, told CNI News that the Chinese government's pressure is greater on ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) than on the Myanmar Tatmadaw.
Leaders from the TNLA, SSPP, and MNDAA met with the United Wa State Army (UWSA) in Panghsang. According to a WSTV statement on August 20, 2025, the UWSA will no longer provide weapons and equipment to any armed groups.
Because of this, U Khun Saing said, Chinese pressure is significant on the ethnic armed groups. China's pressure on the Myanmar Tatmadaw is likely to be a request to de-escalate military tensions due to the upcoming elections.
He said, "I think the pressure is greater on the EAOs. There is one thing China can pressure the Myanmar Tatmadaw on, and that is to reduce military escalation because they have to hold elections. At the last Mekong-Lancang meeting, Mr. Wang Yi told the Myanmar Tatmadaw that what is needed now is peace. He said, 'Peace comes first, so strive for peace. Only when there is peace can you hold elections.' Secondly, he said to work for national reconciliation. And third, to work for social unity. I think they will also tell the opposition ethnic groups to reduce military tensions."
While UWSA, SSPP, MNDAA and TNLA were holding a meeting in Pansang on August 20, 2025
UWSA Deputy Chairman Kyauk Kaw Ann stated that they will not support any organization with weapons, equipment, or financial assistance for any reason. He also warned organizations not to disturb the Wa State by requesting weapons, equipment, financial aid, or other matters.
Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, an analyst on China-Myanmar affairs, told CNI News that the cessation of support could be a deal with the Myanmar Tatmadaw to prevent elections from being held in the UWSA’s region.
"What happened in the meantime is that the State Security and Peace Commission sent delegates to the Wa and Mong La regions to tell them to hold elections. I heard they refused, saying they couldn’t hold elections. Maybe that's why they made a deal. The SSPC wants their election to be legitimate, and they want it to be held in as many places as possible. But I heard that both the Wa and Mong La refused." she said.
Three leaders from TNLA, MNDAA and AA
The TNLA and MNDAA jointly carried out Operation 1027 and captured nearly 20 towns in northern Shan State and Mandalay Region. Afterward, China blocked the UWSA from selling weapons, ammunition, food, fuel, and medicine to the TNLA and MNDAA.
As a result, the TNLA became weak in weapons and had to withdraw from Nawngcho. Currently, they are waging a defensive war in the towns of Kyaukme, Hsipaw, and Mogok.
