CNI News
28 December 2024

If the Arakan Army (AA) had captured the whole Rakhine State, Muslim armed groups including the ARSA might seek refuge in Bangladesh, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.

The main enemy of Muslim armed groups was not the Myanmar Tatmadaw, but the AA, said a Muslim troop, which was stated in a news article published by Reuters in November.

" These groups are fighting against the AA because the military council instigated them. They have been organizations that have been on the sidelines since the beginning. So, if the AA has already captured the whole Rakhine State, they would have sought refuge in Bangladesh. They can't exist strongly." said U Than Soe Naing.

While seeing the ARSA

Muslim armed groups including the ARSA emerged gradually in the battles that resumed since 13th November 2023 between the AA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw. It had to be clearing Muslim armed groups, the ARSA, ARA the RSO which were being active around Buthidaung and Maungdaw Townships, announced the AA in October 2024.

The RSO, the ARSA and the ARA have set foot strongly in the May Yu mountain ranges and they were committing arrests, killings, abduction for ransom and extortion, reported the AA.

These groups could emerge or disappear at any time and the organization behind the scene was the main, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

While seeing former Bangladeshi PM Sheik Hasina

" These armed groups can appear or disappear at any time. In fact, the organizations behind the scene are the main. When the Myanmar Tatmadaw is weak, the SA.C takes out and uses the groups that it can use. When I went underground to become a rebel in 1972, the Myanmar Tatmadaw contained mostly Chin and Rakhine people as well as Bamar people in the upcountry. The basic solid backbones were Chin and Rakhine people. But now that they are fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw, the efficiency of the Myanmar Tatmadaw has declined. When the Chin and Rakhine which have had military capability since before fight patriotically, more effective, I think. But military isn't an answer. So, finding an answer through political means will arrive at last." he said.

Muslim armed groups which were fighting against the AA had recruited by the thousand from the refugee camps in Bangladesh, stated Reuters.

A powerful white country was making an attempt to build a new country, detaching some territories from both Bangladesh and Myanmar, said former Bangladeshi PM Sheik Hasina on 28th May 2024.

CNI News

28 December 2024

Those who shot U San Ngwe, administrator of Home Lan Buta Ward (Holm Street Station Ward), Sanchaung Township, Yangon Region had been arrested, reported the State Administration Council (SAC) on 26th December 2024.

U San Ngwe was shot while he was in his office on 24th December 2024 and those who shot him ran away. Zaw Zaw Bo (B) Tun Tun Aung and May Myat Thinza Kyaw who shot U San Ngwe were arrested in their home, Aung San Ward, Insein Township at 9:15 pm, on 24th December 2024 with a pistol and five bullets as well as a white taxi, said in the statement.

According to the testimony of those arrested, Kaw Zin Oo (B) Kyaung Sayar who was included in the shooting was arrested in Yay Dwin Gon Village, Htantabin Township with a pistol, 14 bullets and a grenade at 10:15 pm. And then, Sai Naung Htet (B) R Gyi who was included in the shooting was arrested in his home in No.3 Ward, Hlaing Thar Yar Township (East) with a pistol, 33 9mm bullets and two smoke bombs on 25th December, said in the statement.

Among those arrested, Kyaw Zin Oo, Kyaung Sayar, Zaw Zaw Bo and May Myat Thinza Kyaw were members of the Free Land Attack Force (FLA) which had 15 members and the leader is Ne Myo Nwe who lives in Maesot, Thailand.

Ne Myo New asked his members to shoot U San Ngwe on 22nd December and the FLA bombed Municipal Administration Offices including the Electrical Manager's Offices in Insein and Tamwe Townships. 

Moreover,  they exploded the CCTV box near the Min Dhama traffic lights on Thamine Street, Mayangone Township which those arrested said, reported the SAC.

CNI News

27 December 2024

Because of India's change of rice policy, despite the decline in world rice prices, it has not impacted on the Myanmar rice market, according to Myanmar rice traders.

Although India banned broken rice export in 2022 and a 20% tax was imposed on white rice exports, at present India has allowed rice exports.

Although India sold white rice at 490 dollars per ton in the past, it is currently selling white rice at 430 dollars per ton. 

As Myanmar has sold a lakh tons of rice  to Bangladesh with the G to G system, at present, because of the India's rice policy, it has not yet affected the Myanmar rice market, an official from the Myanmar Rice Traders Association told CNI News.

" I heard that India will reduce the price of rice when they sell it. The prices of export rice will fall in the world market. So, the prices of rice in the domestic market also could fall. And then, the exchange policy must be taken into account. We have sold 100,000 tons of rice to Bangladesh with the Government to Government trading system. But our rice market has not been hurt. The rice market will be going regularly until summer rice is produced. The amount of export rice is almost the same as previous years." he said.

While seeing a rice shop

Due to the change of the India's rice policy, the prices of rice fell by 10 percent in the world market. 

The prices of Myanmar export rice also could fall. So, it is necessary to lay down proper policies regarding the export rice.

It was necessary to control the market by trading through the G to G system, U Than Aung, a rice trader, told CNI News.

" The Myanmar rice market isn't hurt so much at present. But later, if we haven't sold rice anymore, the market may cool down a bit. If we have sold rice to Bangladesh through the G to G system, the market will be going regularly. The market has been controlled." he said.

It was necessary for Myanmar to expand its rice market to some African and Mideast countries with less Indian influence, suggested market analysts.

Myanmar is the eighth most rice exporter among the ten most rice exporters in 2023-2024 and it exported 1.8 million tons of rice.

CNI News

27 December 2024

If battles broke out in Ayeyarwady Region, the largest producer of rice, famine could surely occur, those who do business of agriculture and market advisors told CNI News. 

The Arakan Army (AA) was able to capture Ann Town and is waging battles against the Myanmar Tatmadaw to take over Gwa Town.

So, the AA could expand its war fronts from Ann to Magway Region as well as from Gwa to Ayeyarwady Region, pointed out military and political analysts. 

If battles spread to Ayeyarwady Region, it would not be easy for other agricultural regions to sufficiently distribute food to the entire country, said a farmer to CNI News.

While seeing Ayeyarwady Region

" Farmers in Sagaing Region are fleeing to safety due to the battles and they can't grow regularly. So, domestic food security is being threatened. If the battles spread to Ayeyarwady Region, the same situation will emerge. And then, It's more likely to experience famine if the battles from Rakhine State to Ayeyarwady Region, the largest producer of rice. Paddy is grown in Pyinmana, Tatkon and around them as well as Shwebo in Sagaing Region. Yangon and Bago Regions grow more pulses and so does Monywa." he said.

Farmers in Sagaing Region where agricultural industry is mainly conducted have not been able to grow for over three years due to territorial instabilities. 

So, the people have to depend mainly on the rice produced in Ayeyarwady Region. 

While seeing a rice warehouse

Although they said that there was enough reserve rice, it could not be eaten for many years, Ko Zaw Min Naing, an agricultural and business advisor, told CNI News.

" They always say they have enough reserve rice, according to the Myanmar Rice federation and officials concerned. But it can be eaten for a period of, I think, six months only. I heard not long ago that exporting rice is suspended and domestic food security will be given priority. This is likely because there is a need for rice reserves, I think. If the production of rice is no more, the people will get into trouble." he said.

Ayeyarwady Region produces 0.37 lakh baskets of rainfed paddy and over 13 lakh baskets of summer paddy from which over 4,000 lakh baskets of paddy are produced.

CNI News

27 December 2024

Activities that penetrate the Ayeyarwady Delta might become front lines there in 2025, pointed out military and political analysts. 

The Yaw Army (YA) would collaborate with its allies and speed up their military activities, it announced on 24th December, 2024. 

The YA has been waging battles together with its allies including the AA and Chin Brother armed groups staring from the battle for the capture of Matupi Town, it said.

It could be considered as a beginning for the liberation of Yaw and Saw regions in Magway Region, and military activities that would generate the Ayeyarwady delta After the Gwa Town battles could become front lines in 2025, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator told CNI News.

While seeing the Yaw Army

" If you go down the Ann-Padan road, you can reach Magway Region. That the AA has seized control of the Myanmar Tatmadaw's military command in Ann can cause revolutionary movements and is the beginning for the liberation of Yaw and Saw regions, I think. The movements in these regions will become Operatioin-1027 of the Spring Revolution, which we welcome. Lots of battles might break out in Magway Region. On the other hand, after the Gwa battles, the next battleground might be the delta region. Now Tve heard that underground PDFs have made preparations. So, military activities that will penetrate the delta region might become the front of 2025." he said.

Speeding up military activities might obviously emerge before 20th January and the AA might go to the allies' regions to conduct joint operation, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP) Dr. Aye Maung told CNI News.

While seeing the delta region (Frontier Myanmar)

" Speeding up military activities by revolutionary forces including the AA might emerge before 20th January 2025 because the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States is scheduled to take place on Monday, January 20, 2025. Before that period, according to the Burma Act of the US, how much the National Defense Authorization Act support money to the revolutionary groups for non-weapon aid and CSOs. So, they need to show how they implement. I'm not sure whether the AA alone waged battles or with forces from northern Shan State or PDFs and drone technologists from the mainland in the Rakhine State battleground. If the mainland PDFs and drone technologists were included, the AA also could be included in the PDFs' operation in the upcountry." he said.

Military activities could speed up in Magway and Ayeyarwady Regions and lots of revolutionary forces could take part in the battles against the Myanmar Tatmadaw, considered military and political analysts.

The Myanmar Tatmadaw reportedly has deployed military columns in Taung Zauk where the Chinese Oil Control Station is located, 20 miles away from Ann Town to regain control of its West Command which has been captured by the AA.

CNI News

26 December 2024

Informal meetings could continue in 2025 and NCA signatories could become more important, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

At present, as informal meetings have been between non-NCA signatories and China or the SAC, the role of NCA signatories could be more important in 2025, he said.

"The uniqueness of 2025 is the election. Before the election, informal meetings have started between non-NCA signatories and the SAC or China. The role of NCA signatories will become more important, I think. There are armed groups that are fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw without signing the NCA as well as armed groups that are fighting against the SAC only after signing the NCA. At present, there have been informal meetings between non-NCA signatories and the SAC. Armed groups that are fighting against the SAC again after signing the NCA such as the KNU and the CNF could conduct informal meetings at the second stage, I think. Informal meetings can emerge in China, India and Thailand in 2025, I think." said Col. Khun Okkar.

China discussed with three northern armed groups (TNLA, MNDAA, AA) that haven't signed the NCA in December while the SAC discussed with the MNDAA. 

While the anniversary celebration of the NCA was being held

There were arguments regarding whether the NCA was void or not after 2021.

Finding an answer to the current political crisis with all-inclusive political dialogues was the best, spokesperson of the 7 EAO Alliance that have signed the NCA, Col. Saw Kyaw Nyunt told CNI News.

" These problems, difficulties and crises emerged from the political problems. It's necessary to build a new political culture that finds an answer through political means without solving the political problems through military means so that we can start talking amidst various difficulties. That the discussion was able to be conducted is a first good step. There were arguments regarding whether the NCA was void or not after 2021." he said.

There were 10 NCA signatories and peace talks were held for many years in the name of the Peace Process Steering Team.

However, there were disagreements among the NCA signatories after 2021 and the KNU, the CNF and the ABSDF said that the NCA had been void and decided to fight against the SAC.

CNI News
25 December 2024

The Revolutionary groups have not yet reached the stage of taking over central Myanmar kind of, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

As battles were coming soon on the Yangon-Mandalay Expressway, the People's Defense Force in the Natogyi region warned the people not to travel unless necessary on 23rd December 2024.

As the revolutionary groups, the ability to attack and capture the central region of Myanmar was at a very high level. They don't seem to reach that stage yet, said Col. Khun Okkar.

" There has been an increase in the number of revolutionary groups and weapons are also scattered. Some of the revolutionary forces managed to reach the highway in a hurry because the expressway is very long. But as the revolutionary groups, the ability to attack and capture the central region of Myanmar is at a very high level. As that stage was reached only in the World War, I'm not sure the civil war has reached that stage. I don't think they have reached that stage." he said.

While seeing some PDF troops on the Yangon-Mandalay Expressway

On 23rd December 2024, a video file in which No. (4-10) Battalion of the Natogyi PDF was warning the passengers on some buses on the Yangon-Mandalay Expressway, emerged. The PDf told the passengers not to travel without necessity.

Political demands must be conducted through political means only, but not through armed means. Any society would not accept the armed terrorist acts and all of them needed to oppose it, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing at the Christmas Thanksgiving Ceremony on 22nd December 2024.

Battles could break out in small towns only and they could not reach the cities; commodities could be blocked by cutting out the transportation, U Kyi Myint, a political commentator, told CNI News.

" Battles can't reach the cities, but can break out in small towns. Revolutionary forces can threaten freight transportation. They can block commodities by cutting out transportation." he said.

If armed conflicts broke out on the expressway, public transportation, the flow of goods, travelling for health and social reasons could be suspended, pointed out political commentators.

Battles are severely breaking out across the country and there are over four million IDPs in Myanmar, according to the office of UNHCR on 2nd December 2024.

CNI News
25 December 2024

Political demands could not be conducted through armed means but through discussion, said chairman of the State Administration Council, Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

He said the above at the Christmas Thanksgiving Ceremony held at St. Jary's Cathedral Church in Botahtaung Township on 22nd December 2024.

"Problems encountered within a community of people living together could be resolved through dialogue, a democratic means. Political problems or political demands must be conducted through political means only, but not through armed means." said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

Just as no society accepted the path of armed terrorist acts, they all needed to oppose it; his government laid down road maps and national goals and was trying hard to win the goals, he said.

Political dialogue was accepted by everyone, but some armed groups were refused to meet and discuss, so they had to choose armed means, which should be taken care of, said an EAO leader.

" Everyone accepts that an answer must be found only after meeting and discussion. They met and discussed, but won nothing. Their demand was refused. So, everyone has come to accept that they will be treated equally only when they have maintained weapons. It's happening like this in practice. Next, there are armed groups which accept the peace offer of the Myanmar Tatmadaw and want to meet and discuss. But they were refused. Only E?AOs that were discussed previously would be accepted. So, how will all-inclusive dialogue become? Then in that case, the peace process will never succeed. The groups that were refused considered that they would be stronger. The Tatmadaw should think about it."he said.

Armed conflicts are widely breaking out throughout the country and there is little interest in the Myanmar military's invitations for peace offers.

In the same way, the peace process between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and NCA signatories are not effective and there are even situations where fighting could break out.

CNI News
25 December 2024

Bahmo was important to the China-India route, spokesperson of the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA), U Myo Kyaw told CNI News.

The delegation led by General N'Ban La, chairman of the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO/KIA) and the Chinese delegation led by Wu Gang, member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) discussed in China on 12th December 2024.

China called and discussed with the KIO/KIA, which was for its interests only, and the continued fighting showed that no agreement had been reached, said U Myo Kyaw.

" Bahmo is important to the Kachin State. You can go there by waterway. If a route between China and India emerged, Bahmo would be a pivotal place. Bahmo is more pivotal in military, politics and economy. Battles are breaking out between the KIA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw. After the KIA talked with China, border gates have been re-opened. Interests are different. In the past, there was the Kachin Special Region-1. It has been captured by the KIA. After that, The KIA's relation with China was tightened and China closed down its border gates with Kachin State. Soon after that, the KIA also closed down its border gates. And then, it was necessary to talk. After the two sides discussed, the border gates were re-opened. On the other hand, the KIA is severely attacking Bahmo, second capital of Kachin State. Although they met, agreements for peace or give and take were not reached."he said.

While seeing leader of the KIA, General N'Ban La

China urged the KIA to stabilize the border areas, reopen the China-Myanmar border gates, cease fire in Kachin State and discuss peace talks with the Myanmar Tatmadaw after which border gates were re-opened. However, battles are still severe.

The towns that have been captured by the KIA are located near the Chinese border, it is not easy for the Myanmar Tatmadaw to carry out air strikes, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar affairs commentator, told CNI News.

" As soon as the KIA attacks and captures a region, it conducts basic reconstruction because CDM experts and physicians have been there in Myitkyina and Bahmo. What the KIA is more capable than the MNDAA, the territories the KIA has captured are border areas with China. So, the Myanmar Tatmadaw can't conduct air strikes." she said.

Among the towns the KIA has captured, Chipwi and Panwa are included, where rare earth is produced. China is desperately in need of rare earth. Moreover, most places in Hpa-kant Township have been captured by the KIA.

The KIA has captured 13 towns in Kachin State over 3 years after 2021 and nearly 300 military camps of the Myanmar Tatmadaw.

While seeing the entrance to Bahmo and the KIA

While seeing leader of the KIA, General N'Ban La

While seeing the KIA